I recall no negative economic statement this forthright by any incumbent senior politician in my lifetime. This simply is not done. >>
Don't worry, he'll be out of a job soon enough. His own party is referring to his statements as a "gaffe."
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
It is not inconceivable that there could be something similar to the WPA and the CCC reintroduced to the Federal programs and make participation mandatory prior to eligibility into entitlement programs.
MH
Crazy me, but why are they called ENTITLEMENTS?
I believe there is a difference now in the attitudes of many Americans, and I do mean many as over 50% are on one sort of DOLE or another. These millions of Americans have been told since the advent of the “Great Society “ that they were just entitled to the money, and now there is no way, in my humble opinion, that you can go back and tell them they have to go to work.
Our most recent forefathers did not believe that they were entitled to anything but a chance to work. They felt that anyone living in the U.S.A. should have the God given right to have a decent job. Things have changed my friend, and there will be riots in the streets if you tell these millions of folks that are no longer entitled to free checks in the mail.
Since the time of that great Texan Lyndon Johnson, and remembering I am from Texas, not many really believe in, "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."
The new National motto is, “Don’t worry about asking what you can do for your country, will we take everything we can from your earnings and do that for you!”
Since the time of that great Texan Lyndon Johnson, and remembering I am from Texas, not many really believe in, "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."
The new National motto is, “Don’t worry about asking what you can do for your country, will we take everything we can from your earnings and do that for you!” >>
Goldsaint
Yes, and the "new marxists" want to create a boot camp for radicals who hate the military and pay it with American taxpayers at the tune of $500 billion.
Don't worry, he'll be out of a job soon enough. His own party is referring to his statements as a "gaffe."
It would be refreshing to have our politicians tell it like it us for a change instead of the syrupy phrases like "the worst is behind us" or the "FED is tough on inflation." We're adults, we can take the truth Colonel Jessup! Then again, if more sheeple knew the whole truth, they'd can all the politicians on the next election cycle. Those getting handouts would of course continue to vote for their favorite politicians handing out the dough.
Normally, I don't pay much attention to this type of article, but todays front page has the top headline:
"Highway trust fund drying up" ............the trust fund - a federal account used to help pay for highway and bridge projects - will run about $200 million short of its commitments for the fiscal year.........
and on page 2, I happened to notice something else:
"Lower tax collections lead to drop in revenue" - State revenues in August were 5% less than in August 2007. Monthly sales tax collections were 22 percent behind August 2007, and corporate income taxes were 39 percent less.
And I don't think that my state, Missouri - will be nearly as hard-hit as some of the coastal states where housing is crashing bad, and where the hurricanes will have a significant impact.
Taxes? Anyone?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
"Lower tax collections lead to drop in revenue" - State revenues in August were 5% less than in August 2007. Monthly sales tax collections were 22 percent behind August 2007, and corporate income taxes were 39 percent less.
I do believe that the only way we will ever make a dent in programs and entitlements is to make infrastructure a more critical contender for public dollars. It will become more important to have a bridge or road so that people can get to the urban centers than it is to pay for assistance programs. At some point the people would rather have a job than have nothing at all. Since the target of most individual taxation is the steadily employeed and since they are being taxed at 50% of their income, it will be nearly impossible to assess a heavier tax burden even if it is in the form of increased tolls, user taxes (hunting/fishing, etc), property taxes, the list is very long.
Point being that at some point you will not be able to get blood from a turnip and you will have to divert those tax dollars to where they will do the most good. This tax poor situation for states/cities with high foreclosures, low gasoline sales, fewer building permits, all the trappings of a growing economy was discussed considerably in the previous year here so we are just now seeing the actual impact. It is only beginning since most budgets are developed well after the phenomenon is in full bloom. At some point, it will be more important to fund public projects than it is to have help programs. At some point people will need money. It just makes sense that the people will once again link getting money to doing work and the program money and highway money will become one and the same.
Interesting to watch this, kind of sad but also kind of necessary. We have been on a Don Cuervo binge for many years and the bar tab is due.
Interesting to look at this chart since 1837............
Good chart Goldbully
Just as quick look at this chart gives one a sense of timing for the beginning of the money printing press era. It does not take much to see gold move along with the advent of the , “Great Society”, and foolish wars that severed no real purpose for America.
I think the price of gold was regulated prior to that rise, so I don't think the increase could be attributed to the printing of money. The gov't was printing money long before the 1970's.
"The details of the deal have not fully emerged, but it appears that the investors who own the companies' common stock will be virtually wiped out.... Holders of debt, including many foreign central banks, are expected to receive government backing."
"...it could rise into tens of billions of dollars and will probably be among the most expensive rescues ever financed by taxpayers."
Tens of billions for Fannie bail out? The orig projection by the Govt was maybe $25 Billion. Now multiply that by 50X and we'll be in the ball park.
This from Peter Schiff's weekly ariticle, and he's only one of many who have picked up on the obvious inconsistencies in recent GDP reporting now that the number has gotten too close to the "R" word.
Without raising an eyebrow on Wall Street or in the press, the GDP deflator, used in the report to downwardly adjust GDP to account for inflation, was shown at just 1.2% annualized.... the lowest deflator in ten years. In other words, to arrive at a 3.3% growth rate, the government assumed that inflation is running at a ten-year low! In contrast, the latest reading on consumer prices (CPI) in the second quarter shows year-on-year inflation running at a 5.6% rate, a seventeen-year high! In fact, for the second quarter, the same time period measured by the GDP deflator, prices actually rose at an even faster pace of 8.0% annualized. How can it be that inflation is simultaneously running at a seventeen-year high and a ten-year low? Welcome to the Alice in Wonderland world of government statistics.
<< <i>Tens of billions for Fannie bail out? The orig projection by the Govt was maybe $25 Billion. Now multiply that by 50X and we'll be in the ball park.
This from Peter Schiff's weekly ariticle, and he's only one of many who have picked up on the obvious inconsistencies in recent GDP reporting now that the number has gotten too close to the "R" word.
Without raising an eyebrow on Wall Street or in the press, the GDP deflator, used in the report to downwardly adjust GDP to account for inflation, was shown at just 1.2% annualized.... the lowest deflator in ten years. In other words, to arrive at a 3.3% growth rate, the government assumed that inflation is running at a ten-year low! In contrast, the latest reading on consumer prices (CPI) in the second quarter shows year-on-year inflation running at a 5.6% rate, a seventeen-year high! In fact, for the second quarter, the same time period measured by the GDP deflator, prices actually rose at an even faster pace of 8.0% annualized. How can it be that inflation is simultaneously running at a seventeen-year high and a ten-year low? Welcome to the Alice in Wonderland world of government statistics.
roadrunner >>
besides the most obvious factors, healthcare, education, and oil... what exactly are people in this thread paying more for?
borrowing money is cheap historically.
basic food stuff is still quite sanely priced when you factor in the basic increases in price due to oil (shipping it around).
walmart is single handedly fighting inflation by batting these cheap manufacturers across the head by playing them off each other. it is amazing how cheap you can buy things there if you lack taste ;-)
buying a home is getting cheaper daily. (hooray because i plan to buy soon when i move).
buying a car is cheap when you consider the used car market in the US is larger then the new. insuring it is very reasonable too compared to when i was younger (of course my rates went down due to age and safe driving). I am insuring a 2008 prius but i could have chosen a 5000 dollar car.
jobs are available for those who wish to work hard AND move up in pay due to that hard work.
people do not need cable tv, cell phones, and fancy electronics. geez louise... if that is a priority when you are poor i have to lol.
computers and internet access are going down in price. buy a PC at walmart and get 19 dollar a month dsl. no brainer.
abandon states where taxes are high for more reasonable areas. live in the city where you work and give up 1 hour commutes. such a silly way to spend your time and money, right?
having two dogs and three cats is probably not a wise choice for those who make little money. they cost money duh.
it seems a husband can make 600 take home a week and do quite well in most states if they budget, save a bit, and do not pop out 5 kids with their wife. planning ahead is they key.
so what exactly is the problem here? life is good for those with a brain. try to do better somewhere else eh?
so with these basic statements that seem to be truths to me.. how can we say things are so bad??
banks have always failed, sometimes enmasse. borrowers go broke when they make bad decisions. our govt has been in debt up to its eye balls for many many decades. eventually they will have to change their ways when crap hits the fan.. i am unsure what that big event will be but to think we will go back to the stone ages of bartering and starvation is silly. the chances are so slim i would never take that bet.
we need to stop looking at the negatives and start finding the positives. protect yourself from the worst case situations the best you can but do not go crazy over it. we are just a grain of sand among millions on the beach and there will always be high rollers trying to pull strings for their benefit. nothing will ever change when it comes to that. certain parts of the economy will be looked over by the govt due to being critical parts of our infrastructure. is that so shocking?
heck, take it one step farther. if you think these big shots have it so good why not join them if you cannot beat them? become an employee for a large bank and work your way up and go play golf with these folks. get the inside trades and make big money!
i bet it will not bring you much in the way of happiness.
ramble off.
our time would be better spent trying to figure out what the next bubble will be... or the next big thing that fat cats will manipulate up and then down when they get out.
it seems the only sure money in PMs is flipping it fast and by the ton. amen
"i bet it will not bring you much in the way of happiness."
I'll bet with you! My wife and I had that discussion just last weekend when we had our grandchildren. We went to the beach, parked for free, used the public beach, went to a local attraction and used their free playground and if I hadn't bought all of us a bunch of food for lunch, we would have done the entire day for 3 gallons of gas...cheap date. We have been as happy with absolutely no money as we are in the top 10% of family incomes. The only difference is back then, our liability was nearly "0" because we didn't own anything that anyone would want. Now we insure everything, worry about everything, and spend a fair amount of our time taking care of everything. Used to be we just went around together and did free things, ate cheap food, and we always seemed to have a few dollars, beer money and usually greens fees on the muni course, but now if we don't have a couple of 0's after the first number we start to fret. So, we live better but we are not having much more income related happiness other than satisfaction at our success; on the other hand, we've always been pretty happy. Life is funny that way but that is a very good lesson for anyone with out a lot of wherewithall, happiness is not related to the amount of money you have...bet on it!
And the Wal Mart stuff...buy anything that is made in China and you are going to be buying again soon. So many times the quality is so bad that the item does not last...recent purchases: a bike, toilet stopper miss shaped, toys...
Insurance, pool chemicals, oil changes, food in general, numismatics.
And the dollar, as soon as you step off this continent and go to Europe for work or fun you're taking a 40% pay cut compared to just a few years ago.
And today we all assume $1.2 trillion in debt...thanks Paulson. Nothing is allowed to fail except for the middle class.
I know it doesn't seem like it but I am mostly a positive person and look for the good people and situations. My attitude has done me well financially, in marriage, religiously, and in family. But, when I see a constant erosion of the "American Dream" done by "Americans" it chaps my hide. When I see what is on the horizon with these candidates it sorrows me...it's just un-affordable.
"In 2017 we will begin paying more in benefits than we collect in taxes. Without changes, by 2041 the Social Security Trust Fund with be exhausted and there will be enough money to pay only about 78 cents for each dollar of scheduled benefits."
fc, there are some points I'd like to make.
1) I will be retiring sooner than you, and it does appear that any loss of benefits that I suffer during my retirement not be as great as the loss of benefits that you will suffer, since the system is in a perpetual downward spiral in the ratio of contributors to recipients.
2) The "changes" that they are promising us amount to less benefits. To put it another way, we paid more in order to receive less.
3) Inflation will erode any retirement benefits, so the coming "changes" that they promise amount to a bigger loss than the nominal decrease, whatever it ends up being.
4) When they bail out these bigtime losers who really ought to be up on corruption charges, it simply speaks to how badly things are going. Keeting did 5 years in prison, and made off with $5 Billion. The big bankers and their governmental cronies are doing us much worse right now.
5) These bailouts that Big Government loves so much will add to your liabilities and interest payments. That translates to much higher taxes. And, in spite of this socialist system that's growing when everything else is shrinking - when the time comes, you can be sure that any "help" you get from the government will be worse than no help at all. That's just the way it is.
But, buck up! Things COULD be worse, and that's why people from all over the world are still dying to come here.
Edited: Keeting kept $2 Billion. (my mistake.)
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
banks have always failed, sometimes enmasse. borrowers go broke when they make bad decisions. our govt has been in debt up to its eye balls for many many decades. eventually they will have to change their ways when crap hits the fan.. i am unsure what that big event will be but to think we will go back to the stone ages of bartering and starvation is silly. the chances are so slim i would never take that bet.
We haven't seen the end result of all the govt and corporate machinations of the past 10 years. Right now it is still ok....at least on paper. Being up to debt to our eyeballs was workable. We're many times that level now and it is basically unfathomable how deep the kimshee is. Revisit this day 3 years from now and let's see if everything is fine for J6P. By assuming F&F we just took our effective national debt from $9 TRILL to around $14 TRILLION.
<< <i>"i bet it will not bring you much in the way of happiness."
I'll bet with you! My wife and I had that discussion just last weekend when we had our grandchildren. We went to the beach, parked for free, used the public beach, went to a local attraction and used their free playground and if I hadn't bought all of us a bunch of food for lunch, we would have done the entire day for 3 gallons of gas...cheap date. We have been as happy with absolutely no money as we are in the top 10% of family incomes. The only difference is back then, our liability was nearly "0" because we didn't own anything that anyone would want. Now we insure everything, worry about everything, and spend a fair amount of our time taking care of everything. Used to be we just went around together and did free things, ate cheap food, and we always seemed to have a few dollars, beer money and usually greens fees on the muni course, but now if we don't have a couple of 0's after the first number we start to fret. So, we live better but we are not having much more income related happiness other than satisfaction at our success; on the other hand, we've always been pretty happy. Life is funny that way but that is a very good lesson for anyone with out a lot of wherewithall, happiness is not related to the amount of money you have...bet on it! >>
Very wise words! Of course, poverty never made anyone happy either!
After some review of posts from the last few days we are putting this thread back. While I understand the comments of discussing the economy as it has to do with the rise and fall of PM's, this is not an economic discussion board. Be careful that this thread does not turn political causing it to be removed form the forums.
<< <i>Tens of billions for Fannie bail out? The orig projection by the Govt was maybe $25 Billion. Now multiply that by 50X and we'll be in the ball park.
From the end of the article: This market manipulation by the U.S. government and its trading partners may only last a few days or it may last a few months. It will end someday, perhaps very soon. Once the tide turns, I expect we will then see the largest ever percentage rise in the prices of gold and silver.
I also predict that at least one nation will come out with a gold-backed currency. If that happens, the U.S. dollar will be on the way out. Enjoy acquiring precious metals at today's bargain prices.
Now, what do we do with the other thread. It's as if CU wanted to see us get all spun up, regroup, get empowered, then, not so fast...here's GS's thread back.
I asked many more questions than you requested. Some answers you may like, some you may not.
Ask the FDIC how many weeks/months they anticipate before they run out money and have to be bailed out themselves
1. The FDIC has a letter of credit with Congress. 2. Banks are 3x better capitalized than they were in 1990-1991. 3. Deleveraging is strengthening balance sheets. 4. The media is overhyping. 5. Due to media overhyping, people have been diversifying their assets among many banks. There are alot less uninsured deposits than months ago. 6. The FDIC has the ability to raise insurance premiums. 7. The "list" is greater than 117. 8. A big bank will probably fail. 9. The FDIC will not be insolvent, nor will the USA. 10. The bulk of sub-prime mortgages due for reset occured this summer. Since forclosures usually take 90 days or more, expect the worse to be over in late fall. 11. The real estate market is already slowing its decline and will probably bottom by Spring 09. 12. There are a tremendous number of high quality banks. 13. There is still new bank creation, although slower than in previous years. 14. Stronger capitalization means more acquisition.
My interpretation......It is always darkest before dawn, and it is pretty dark right now. Remember, markets react to events 6-9 months in the future. Thats why most people do not understand actions at the present. Bottoms can take years to fully develop, so do not expect an immediate resumption in home prices. The FDIC will not need to be bailed out.
I also predict that at least one nation will come out with a gold-backed currency. If that happens, the U.S. dollar will be on the way out. Enjoy acquiring precious metals at today's bargain prices. >>
i wonder what country...... UAE?, a country rich in gold mining?
the IMF has by far the largest holding of physical gold
I also predict that at least one nation will come out with a gold-backed currency. If that happens, the U.S. dollar will be on the way out. Enjoy acquiring precious metals at today's bargain prices. >>
i wonder what country...... UAR?, a country rich in gold mining?
the IMF has by far the largest holding of physical gold >>
Just to be clear, I was quoting that from my linked article, but that is a good question. I would say if it was to happen, it would be after someone made the move to take over as much gold as they possibly could, possibly some middle eastern country from their oil riches, but that's just a WAG.
The national budget must be balanced. The public debt must be reduced; the arrogance of the authorities must be moderated and controlled. Payments to foreign governments must be reduced, if the nation doesn't want to go bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance. --Cicero, 55 BC
You are a wise old bear. I am now shifting to early type coins with my discrectionary spending. Once gold comes back to earth, I may rebuild a type set that was broken up a while back when gold first hit 800. PMs are just another commodity and I dont invest in pork bellies or trade oil and gas futures either. I believe in "stick to your knitting", i.e. dont invest in things you dont really understand or control.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
Yes, classic US gold coins is a great place to be (with some bullion coins too) mainly because it's a known quantity from a financial point of view and they are just so historic and storyfied. Undamaged, circ classic gold with pristine skin is most wonderous, even if it is encased in plastic, excellent day dreaming and book reading fodder. For many of them there are only maybe a thousand or fewer in existence and their populations, grades, conditions are very well documented by more than one web site. The demand for these coins may move around a little but they always seem to right themselves; you can check cu3000 for classic gold and get a good feel for the movement. The little buggers have continued to get more and more expensive as more people discover the US classic gold and I haven't seen the pressure let off of the good stuff for years. The other very nice thing about the pre '33 issues is that they make an eye popping, killer, type set...beautiful stuff.
I recently bid a solid price for a coin that I have been consciously hunting for more than a year and have only seen auctioned 5 times in the last 4 years; I bid good and strong, well above previous prices...never even got a good sniff at it, the bigger dogs were on it like a bad rash in the summertime, fighting like a dog with a bone, so the money goes back into the pot and I wait. Next time, I'm flying to where ever the auction is (what's $300 when you're chasing elephants), I'm going to stay in the hotel, I'm going to walk the borse, I'm gonna have my game on, I'm going to have my bullets and I'm going in face first, and I'm going to be: ON.
The advice that is given to collectors in this area is to buy the very best coin you can afford instead of buying 2 or 3 so so coins. But you don't have to spend a lot of money to get a nice coin, many can be had for just a few hundred dollars. While this advice rings mostly true, it is also a bit of a sucker trap because you somehow justify spending a little extra for a hard to find coin only to realize later that you are probably holding that coin for at least 5 years to have a chance at selling it for enough money to break even. Selling becomes an issue because every now and then the herd has to be trimmed as your collecting interests become more defined and the objects of your unbridled lust become a little more difficult to locate in a condition that is suitable to you so you need to trim the herd to get more funds and to keep your collection managable (box of 20 fan here). Hunting old gold is an art form and a skill at the same time; a somewhat sophisticated persuit mostly done in silence, stealth, and solitude until you have that coin in your hands.
This is not a flipper or get rich quick game, it is a very well measured pursuit that must be sustained for many years but on the other hand, classic US gold is a very known quantity and it is very stable and hey, you can make a couple of buks and have a very cool collection at the same time.
The advice that is given to collectors in this area is to buy the very best coin you can afford instead of buying 2 or 3 so so coins.
while i think that advice IS solid it only works up to a certain point. for example if your average gold coin purchase was 500-1200 stretching for a coin that costs 6000 is rather rash and could be outside of your comfort area. after all, the larger the price, the more quickly it can tumble, rare date or not.
i think that advice was often given out by dealers when speaking about the same coin in a range of grades. it is now abused a bit to convince people to get out of their comfort zones. "afford" being the key word to understand in the sentence. Just because you can save 6000 dollars does not mean you should blow the wad on one coin.
if you see a nice AU55 for 1200 but a MS62 only costs 1800 you might very well consider stretching for it. After MS62 the price quadruples... well this is not a good case of buying the best you can afford because you probably cannot afford a 6000 dollar MS63.... if it took a year to save the cash.
just my two cents on rare gold coins.
i bought an 1859S HE. I paid up for a slightly better more original example. The most expensive coin i ever bought and it is VG08. For me to continue that trend to get something better and better i would be in la la land with my budget quite fast. Keep looking for the right coin in the grade you can afford. stretch 10-25% for the better one in the grade up, down, or the same.
do not get caught up with big deep pocket folks and think you have to have the finest known or something of that nature... which is where this "buying the best quickly leads to".
I like the analysis Nichols has to offer on this topic. This with delta turning points from another author seem to offer the best indications of coming prices. In any case Nichols sees one more big down leg (currently in progress) to wash out all the final weak hands. He expects gold in the $650-$730 range for the next major move back up. The dollar rally is running out of energy as his fractal dimension shows with a topic maybe in the low 80's. Not the news we all want to hear, but there is finale in progress. These fractal charts have been very accurate over the past year or more. I'm not a subscriber but wish I had been.
1. The FDIC has a letter of credit with Congress. 2. Banks are 3x better capitalized than they were in 1990-1991. 3. Deleveraging is strengthening balance sheets. 4. The media is overhyping. 5. Due to media overhyping, people have been diversifying their assets among many banks. There are alot less uninsured deposits than months ago. 6. The FDIC has the ability to raise insurance premiums. 7. The "list" is greater than 117. 8. A big bank will probably fail. 9. The FDIC will not be insolvent, nor will the USA. 10. The bulk of sub-prime mortgages due for reset occured this summer. Since forclosures usually take 90 days or more, expect the worse to be over in late fall. 11. The real estate market is already slowing its decline and will probably bottom by Spring 09. 12. There are a tremendous number of high quality banks. 13. There is still new bank creation, although slower than in previous years. 14. Stronger capitalization means more acquisition.
I can't lend much creedence to the FDIC's comments since they are walking the party line on #9 and #11. I cannot see the FDIC going insolvent on their current $45-$50 BILLION balance. If they get more money to go deeper, aren't they insolvent? There is no chance the RE market will bottom next year, or even before 2011 when things really start to hit the fan. That big bank mentioned is probably Lehman. The USA is already insolvent along with most big banks. Just because the FED continues to loan to big banks doesn't make them insolvent. The FED could have continued to loan to Bear Stearns but decided to let them crash and allow JPM and others to strip the carcass. Banks might appear better capitalized because so many have been combined into larger and "better" versions. It might only take 200 bank failures this time around to have the same effect as what 1000 did the last time around. The deleveraging process is essentially trying to reduce an "infinite" number (ie Quadrillion dollars to a few Trillion) which is essentially impossible. We're deleveraging old bets at such a slow rate as to be inconsequential. And in any case there are new leverages being added as we speak...something to the tune of +45% in 2007. Even as the mortgage battle winds down, banks still have to contend with credit default swaps and interest rate derivatives which dwarf the RE market derivatives.
Comments
<< <i>
I recall no negative economic statement this forthright by any incumbent senior politician in my lifetime. This simply is not done. >>
Don't worry, he'll be out of a job soon enough. His own party is referring to his statements as a "gaffe."
Is this thing on?
letter to shadowstats from Sinclair
It is not inconceivable that there could be something similar to the WPA and the CCC reintroduced to the Federal programs and make participation mandatory prior to eligibility into entitlement programs.
MH
Crazy me, but why are they called ENTITLEMENTS?
I believe there is a difference now in the attitudes of many Americans, and I do mean many as over 50% are on one sort of DOLE or another. These millions of Americans have been told since the advent of the “Great Society “ that they were just entitled to the money, and now there is no way, in my humble opinion, that you can go back and tell them they have to go to work.
Our most recent forefathers did not believe that they were entitled to anything but a chance to work. They felt that anyone living in the U.S.A. should have the God given right to have a decent job. Things have changed my friend, and there will be riots in the streets if you tell these millions of folks that are no longer entitled to free checks in the mail.
Since the time of that great Texan Lyndon Johnson, and remembering I am from Texas,
not many really believe in, "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."
The new National motto is, “Don’t worry about asking what you can do for your country, will we take everything we can from your earnings and do that for you!”
Since the time of that great Texan Lyndon Johnson, and remembering I am from Texas,
not many really believe in, "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."
The new National motto is, “Don’t worry about asking what you can do for your country, will we take everything we can from your earnings and do that for you!” >>
Goldsaint
Yes, and the "new marxists" want to create a boot camp for radicals who hate the military and pay it with American taxpayers at the tune of $500 billion.
Can you say re-education programs.
Ren
corporate taxation. It is not the rate that matters so much
as the amount of actual money is paid in taxation after all of
the gimmicks and loopholes are factored in. I believe that you
will find that giant corporation in actuality, pay at a lower rate then
what is called, the middle class.
Folks rant against the "welfare state", however they fail to see that
corporate entities gather rewards from the "Welfare state"
with both hands. It seems that aid to the poor, the aged and the sick
is to be castigated, but aid to corporations is to be praised.
It would not be so bad if corporate aid went to companies that
kept jobs in America or to rebuild our industrial base and make
them cost effective and efficient.
However, currently, that aid goes in the pockets of the well to do with few if any
advantages applying to the security of the Nation or of its working people.
Another question is the vast amount of money expended helping folks who are living in
Storm sensitive areas as well as flood plains. It might make more sense to
buy these folks out and to limit such areas either to industrial, business or no
development at all. As an example, we have New Orleans, where untold
billions of dollars are being spent to protect the city against the ravages of Nature.
What is needed is to rebuild the marsh areas , allow the natural flow of the
waterways to restore the natural silt that once rebuilt the soil of the barrier marshes.
Nature can not always be thwarted no matter how much money we
throw at it. Rebuild parts of the city further inland on higher ground instead
of going thru the futile effort year after year. With
rising water levels it will be only a matter of time until many coastal
areas are inundated,unless more practical long term changes are made.
It is not always how much money the Government spends, but how
smart it spends our money. Money spent on roads, bridges
reconstruction of coastal marsh lands, airports and rebuilding
new circular transition areas the eliminate left turns at complex
highway intersections would be money spent with American companies and American Labor.
Camelot
It would be refreshing to have our politicians tell it like it us for a change instead of the syrupy phrases like "the worst is behind us" or the "FED is tough on inflation." We're adults, we can take the truth Colonel Jessup! Then again, if more sheeple knew the whole truth, they'd can all the politicians on the next election cycle. Those getting handouts would of course continue to vote for their favorite politicians handing out the dough.
roadrunner
"Highway trust fund drying up" ............the trust fund - a federal account used to help pay for highway and bridge projects - will run about $200 million short of its commitments for the fiscal year.........
and on page 2, I happened to notice something else:
"Lower tax collections lead to drop in revenue" - State revenues in August were 5% less than in August 2007. Monthly sales tax collections were 22 percent behind August 2007, and corporate income taxes were 39 percent less.
And I don't think that my state, Missouri - will be nearly as hard-hit as some of the coastal states where housing is crashing bad, and where the hurricanes will have a significant impact.
Taxes? Anyone?
I knew it would happen.
I do believe that the only way we will ever make a dent in programs and entitlements is to make infrastructure a more critical contender for public dollars. It will become more important to have a bridge or road so that people can get to the urban centers than it is to pay for assistance programs. At some point the people would rather have a job than have nothing at all. Since the target of most individual taxation is the steadily employeed and since they are being taxed at 50% of their income, it will be nearly impossible to assess a heavier tax burden even if it is in the form of increased tolls, user taxes (hunting/fishing, etc), property taxes, the list is very long.
Point being that at some point you will not be able to get blood from a turnip and you will have to divert those tax dollars to where they will do the most good. This tax poor situation for states/cities with high foreclosures, low gasoline sales, fewer building permits, all the trappings of a growing economy was discussed considerably in the previous year here so we are just now seeing the actual impact. It is only beginning since most budgets are developed well after the phenomenon is in full bloom. At some point, it will be more important to fund public projects than it is to have help programs. At some point people will need money. It just makes sense that the people will once again link getting money to doing work and the program money and highway money will become one and the same.
Interesting to watch this, kind of sad but also kind of necessary. We have been on a Don Cuervo binge for many years and the bar tab is due.
Interesting to look at this chart since 1837............
Good chart Goldbully
Just as quick look at this chart gives one a sense of timing for the beginning of the money printing press era. It does not take much to see gold move along with the advent of the , “Great Society”, and foolish wars that severed no real purpose for America.
<< <i>Why U.S. moved to take over mortgage giants >>
excerpt
"The details of the deal have not fully emerged, but it appears that the investors who own the companies' common stock will be virtually wiped out.... Holders of debt, including many foreign central banks, are expected to receive government backing."
"...it could rise into tens of billions of dollars and will probably be among the most expensive rescues ever financed by taxpayers."
Ren
This from Peter Schiff's weekly ariticle, and he's only one of many who have picked up on the obvious inconsistencies in recent GDP reporting now that the number has gotten too close to the "R" word.
Without raising an eyebrow on Wall Street or in the press, the GDP deflator, used in the report to downwardly adjust GDP to account for inflation, was shown at just 1.2% annualized.... the lowest deflator in ten years. In other words, to arrive at a 3.3% growth rate, the government assumed that inflation is running at a ten-year low! In contrast, the latest reading on consumer prices (CPI) in the second quarter shows year-on-year inflation running at a 5.6% rate, a seventeen-year high! In fact, for the second quarter, the same time period measured by the GDP deflator, prices actually rose at an even faster pace of 8.0% annualized. How can it be that inflation is simultaneously running at a seventeen-year high and a ten-year low? Welcome to the Alice in Wonderland world of government statistics.
roadrunner
<< <i>Tens of billions for Fannie bail out? The orig projection by the Govt was maybe $25 Billion. Now multiply that by 50X and we'll be in the ball park.
This from Peter Schiff's weekly ariticle, and he's only one of many who have picked up on the obvious inconsistencies in recent GDP reporting now that the number has gotten too close to the "R" word.
Without raising an eyebrow on Wall Street or in the press, the GDP deflator, used in the report to downwardly adjust GDP to account for inflation, was shown at just 1.2% annualized.... the lowest deflator in ten years. In other words, to arrive at a 3.3% growth rate, the government assumed that inflation is running at a ten-year low! In contrast, the latest reading on consumer prices (CPI) in the second quarter shows year-on-year inflation running at a 5.6% rate, a seventeen-year high! In fact, for the second quarter, the same time period measured by the GDP deflator, prices actually rose at an even faster pace of 8.0% annualized. How can it be that inflation is simultaneously running at a seventeen-year high and a ten-year low? Welcome to the Alice in Wonderland world of government statistics.
roadrunner >>
besides the most obvious factors, healthcare, education, and oil...
what exactly are people in this thread paying more for?
borrowing money is cheap historically.
basic food stuff is still quite sanely priced when you factor in the
basic increases in price due to oil (shipping it around).
walmart is single handedly fighting inflation by batting these cheap
manufacturers across the head by playing them off each other. it is
amazing how cheap you can buy things there if you lack taste ;-)
buying a home is getting cheaper daily. (hooray because i plan to buy
soon when i move).
buying a car is cheap when you consider the used car market in the
US is larger then the new. insuring it is very reasonable too compared
to when i was younger (of course my rates went down due to age
and safe driving). I am insuring a 2008 prius but i could have chosen
a 5000 dollar car.
jobs are available for those who wish to work hard AND move up in pay due to that hard work.
people do not need cable tv, cell phones, and fancy electronics. geez
louise... if that is a priority when you are poor i have to lol.
computers and internet access are going down in price. buy a PC at
walmart and get 19 dollar a month dsl. no brainer.
abandon states where taxes are high for more reasonable areas.
live in the city where you work and give up 1 hour commutes. such
a silly way to spend your time and money, right?
having two dogs and three cats is probably not a wise choice for those
who make little money. they cost money duh.
it seems a husband can make 600 take home a week and do quite
well in most states if they budget, save a bit, and do not pop out
5 kids with their wife. planning ahead is they key.
so what exactly is the problem here? life is good for those with a brain. try to do better somewhere else eh?
so with these basic statements that seem to be truths to me.. how
can we say things are so bad??
banks have always failed, sometimes enmasse. borrowers go broke
when they make bad decisions. our govt has been in debt up to its
eye balls for many many decades. eventually they will have to change
their ways when crap hits the fan.. i am unsure what that big event
will be but to think we will go back to the stone ages of bartering and
starvation is silly. the chances are so slim i would never take that bet.
we need to stop looking at the negatives and start finding the positives. protect yourself from the worst case situations the best
you can but do not go crazy over it. we are just a grain of sand among
millions on the beach and there will always be high rollers trying to
pull strings for their benefit. nothing will ever change when it comes
to that. certain parts of the economy will be looked over by the govt
due to being critical parts of our infrastructure. is that so shocking?
heck, take it one step farther. if you think these big shots have it so
good why not join them if you cannot beat them? become an employee
for a large bank and work your way up and go play golf with these
folks. get the inside trades and make big money!
i bet it will not bring you much in the way of happiness.
ramble off.
our time would be better spent trying to figure out what the next
bubble will be... or the next big thing that fat cats will manipulate
up and then down when they get out.
it seems the only sure money in PMs is flipping it fast and by the ton.
amen
I'll bet with you! My wife and I had that discussion just last weekend when we had our grandchildren. We went to the beach, parked for free, used the public beach, went to a local attraction and used their free playground and if I hadn't bought all of us a bunch of food for lunch, we would have done the entire day for 3 gallons of gas...cheap date. We have been as happy with absolutely no money as we are in the top 10% of family incomes. The only difference is back then, our liability was nearly "0" because we didn't own anything that anyone would want. Now we insure everything, worry about everything, and spend a fair amount of our time taking care of everything. Used to be we just went around together and did free things, ate cheap food, and we always seemed to have a few dollars, beer money and usually greens fees on the muni course, but now if we don't have a couple of 0's after the first number we start to fret. So, we live better but we are not having much more income related happiness other than satisfaction at our success; on the other hand, we've always been pretty happy. Life is funny that way but that is a very good lesson for anyone with out a lot of wherewithall, happiness is not related to the amount of money you have...bet on it!
And the Wal Mart stuff...buy anything that is made in China and you are going to be buying again soon. So many times the quality is so bad that the item does not last...recent purchases: a bike, toilet stopper miss shaped, toys...
Insurance, pool chemicals, oil changes, food in general, numismatics.
And the dollar, as soon as you step off this continent and go to Europe for work or fun you're taking a 40% pay cut compared to just a few years ago.
And today we all assume $1.2 trillion in debt...thanks Paulson. Nothing is allowed to fail except for the middle class.
I know it doesn't seem like it but I am mostly a positive person and look for the good people and situations. My attitude has done me well financially, in marriage, religiously, and in family. But, when I see a constant erosion of the "American Dream" done by "Americans" it chaps my hide. When I see what is on the horizon with these candidates it sorrows me...it's just un-affordable.
Ramble off (fc, I like that one)
Ren
"In 2017 we will begin paying more in benefits than we collect in taxes. Without changes, by 2041 the Social Security Trust Fund with be exhausted and there will be enough money to pay only about 78 cents for each dollar of scheduled benefits."
fc, there are some points I'd like to make.
1) I will be retiring sooner than you, and it does appear that any loss of benefits that I suffer during my retirement not be as great as the loss of benefits that you will suffer, since the system is in a perpetual downward spiral in the ratio of contributors to recipients.
2) The "changes" that they are promising us amount to less benefits. To put it another way, we paid more in order to receive less.
3) Inflation will erode any retirement benefits, so the coming "changes" that they promise amount to a bigger loss than the nominal decrease, whatever it ends up being.
4) When they bail out these bigtime losers who really ought to be up on corruption charges, it simply speaks to how badly things are going. Keeting did 5 years in prison, and made off with $5 Billion. The big bankers and their governmental cronies are doing us much worse right now.
5) These bailouts that Big Government loves so much will add to your liabilities and interest payments. That translates to much higher taxes. And, in spite of this socialist system that's growing when everything else is shrinking - when the time comes, you can be sure that any "help" you get from the government will be worse than no help at all. That's just the way it is.
But, buck up! Things COULD be worse, and that's why people from all over the world are still dying to come here.
Edited: Keeting kept $2 Billion. (my mistake.)
I knew it would happen.
Priceless!
when they make bad decisions. our govt has been in debt up to its
eye balls for many many decades. eventually they will have to change
their ways when crap hits the fan.. i am unsure what that big event
will be but to think we will go back to the stone ages of bartering and
starvation is silly. the chances are so slim i would never take that bet.
We haven't seen the end result of all the govt and corporate machinations of the past 10 years. Right now it is still ok....at least on paper. Being up to debt to our eyeballs was workable. We're many times that level now and it is basically unfathomable how deep the kimshee is. Revisit this day 3 years from now and let's see if everything is fine for J6P. By assuming F&F we just took our effective national debt from $9 TRILL to around $14 TRILLION.
roadrunner
<< <i>"i bet it will not bring you much in the way of happiness."
I'll bet with you! My wife and I had that discussion just last weekend when we had our grandchildren. We went to the beach, parked for free, used the public beach, went to a local attraction and used their free playground and if I hadn't bought all of us a bunch of food for lunch, we would have done the entire day for 3 gallons of gas...cheap date. We have been as happy with absolutely no money as we are in the top 10% of family incomes. The only difference is back then, our liability was nearly "0" because we didn't own anything that anyone would want. Now we insure everything, worry about everything, and spend a fair amount of our time taking care of everything. Used to be we just went around together and did free things, ate cheap food, and we always seemed to have a few dollars, beer money and usually greens fees on the muni course, but now if we don't have a couple of 0's after the first number we start to fret. So, we live better but we are not having much more income related happiness other than satisfaction at our success; on the other hand, we've always been pretty happy. Life is funny that way but that is a very good lesson for anyone with out a lot of wherewithall, happiness is not related to the amount of money you have...bet on it! >>
Very wise words! Of course, poverty never made anyone happy either!
Carol
Thanks PCGS; good stuff.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Tens of billions for Fannie bail out? The orig projection by the Govt was maybe $25 Billion. Now multiply that by 50X and we'll be in the ball park.
roadrunner >>
Numismaster says your right RR
From the end of the article:
This market manipulation by the U.S. government and its trading partners may only last a few days or it may last a few months. It will end someday, perhaps very soon. Once the tide turns, I expect we will then see the largest ever percentage rise in the prices of gold and silver.
I also predict that at least one nation will come out with a gold-backed currency. If that happens, the U.S. dollar will be on the way out. Enjoy acquiring precious metals at today's bargain prices.
<< <i>Good deal! >>
Now, what do we do with the other thread. It's as if CU wanted to see us get all spun up, regroup, get empowered, then, not so fast...here's GS's thread back.
Go figure.
And the reason for its semi-poof-dom?
Ren
Ask the FDIC how many weeks/months they anticipate before they run out money and have to be bailed out themselves
1. The FDIC has a letter of credit with Congress.
2. Banks are 3x better capitalized than they were in 1990-1991.
3. Deleveraging is strengthening balance sheets.
4. The media is overhyping.
5. Due to media overhyping, people have been diversifying their assets among many banks. There are alot less uninsured deposits than months ago.
6. The FDIC has the ability to raise insurance premiums.
7. The "list" is greater than 117.
8. A big bank will probably fail.
9. The FDIC will not be insolvent, nor will the USA.
10. The bulk of sub-prime mortgages due for reset occured this summer. Since forclosures usually take 90 days or more, expect the worse to be over in late fall.
11. The real estate market is already slowing its decline and will probably bottom by Spring 09.
12. There are a tremendous number of high quality banks.
13. There is still new bank creation, although slower than in previous years.
14. Stronger capitalization means more acquisition.
My interpretation......It is always darkest before dawn, and it is pretty dark right now. Remember, markets react to events 6-9 months in the future. Thats why most people do not understand actions at the present. Bottoms can take years to fully develop, so do not expect an immediate resumption in home prices. The FDIC will not need to be bailed out.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
many, many thanks.
<< <i>
I also predict that at least one nation will come out with a gold-backed currency. If that happens, the U.S. dollar will be on the way out. Enjoy acquiring precious metals at today's bargain prices. >>
i wonder what country...... UAE?, a country rich in gold mining?
the IMF has by far the largest holding of physical gold
<< <i>
<< <i>
I also predict that at least one nation will come out with a gold-backed currency. If that happens, the U.S. dollar will be on the way out. Enjoy acquiring precious metals at today's bargain prices. >>
i wonder what country...... UAR?, a country rich in gold mining?
the IMF has by far the largest holding of physical gold >>
Just to be clear, I was quoting that from my linked article, but that is a good question. I would say if it was to happen, it would be after someone made the move to take over as much gold as they possibly could, possibly some middle eastern country from their oil riches, but that's just a WAG.
When ever I post here I never see the post untill the next day.
We just cannot lose this thread during these very troubling times.
What is happing to these Metals Markets?
the data is a month old...yet ineteresting to "go-back" and try to figure out what did and didn't happen
those frick'in charts make me buggy
Camelot
in superb Gem condition. They may fall in price for a time, but will recover
and go higher as a store of value. They can not be manipulated and I retain
physical possession. Further there are no margin calls on the collection.
I do not trust PMs, banks or bonds. It is just me, my coins and my 357 magnum.
Camelot
I recently bid a solid price for a coin that I have been consciously hunting for more than a year and have only seen auctioned 5 times in the last 4 years; I bid good and strong, well above previous prices...never even got a good sniff at it, the bigger dogs were on it like a bad rash in the summertime, fighting like a dog with a bone, so the money goes back into the pot and I wait. Next time, I'm flying to where ever the auction is (what's $300 when you're chasing elephants), I'm going to stay in the hotel, I'm going to walk the borse, I'm gonna have my game on, I'm going to have my bullets and I'm going in face first, and I'm going to be: ON.
The advice that is given to collectors in this area is to buy the very best coin you can afford instead of buying 2 or 3 so so coins. But you don't have to spend a lot of money to get a nice coin, many can be had for just a few hundred dollars. While this advice rings mostly true, it is also a bit of a sucker trap because you somehow justify spending a little extra for a hard to find coin only to realize later that you are probably holding that coin for at least 5 years to have a chance at selling it for enough money to break even. Selling becomes an issue because every now and then the herd has to be trimmed as your collecting interests become more defined and the objects of your unbridled lust become a little more difficult to locate in a condition that is suitable to you so you need to trim the herd to get more funds and to keep your collection managable (box of 20 fan here). Hunting old gold is an art form and a skill at the same time; a somewhat sophisticated persuit mostly done in silence, stealth, and solitude until you have that coin in your hands.
This is not a flipper or get rich quick game, it is a very well measured pursuit that must be sustained for many years but on the other hand, classic US gold is a very known quantity and it is very stable and hey, you can make a couple of buks and have a very cool collection at the same time.
Coin ON!
DYODD, for entertainment purposes only
while i think that advice IS solid it only works up to a certain point.
for example if your average gold coin purchase was 500-1200 stretching
for a coin that costs 6000 is rather rash and could be outside of your comfort
area. after all, the larger the price, the more quickly it can tumble, rare date or not.
i think that advice was often given out by dealers when speaking about the same
coin in a range of grades. it is now abused a bit to convince people to get out of
their comfort zones. "afford" being the key word to understand in the sentence.
Just because you can save 6000 dollars does not mean you should blow the wad
on one coin.
if you see a nice AU55 for 1200 but a MS62 only costs 1800 you might very well consider
stretching for it. After MS62 the price quadruples... well this is not a good case of buying
the best you can afford because you probably cannot afford a 6000 dollar MS63.... if it took
a year to save the cash.
just my two cents on rare gold coins.
i bought an 1859S HE. I paid up for a slightly better more original example. The most expensive
coin i ever bought and it is VG08. For me to continue that trend to get something better and better
i would be in la la land with my budget quite fast. Keep looking for the right coin in the grade you
can afford. stretch 10-25% for the better one in the grade up, down, or the same.
do not get caught up with big deep pocket folks and think you have to have the finest known
or something of that nature... which is where this "buying the best quickly leads to".
Wow, If your interest in Big Brother abuse read this!
Rogue Agency Arrest Stay-At-Home Mom
Fractal report on gold, silver and dollar
I like the analysis Nichols has to offer on this topic. This with delta turning points from another author seem to offer the best indications of coming prices. In any case Nichols sees one more big down leg (currently in progress) to wash out all the final weak hands. He expects gold in the $650-$730 range for the next major move back up. The dollar rally is running out of energy as his fractal dimension shows with a topic maybe in the low 80's. Not the news we all want to hear, but there is finale in progress. These fractal charts have been very accurate over the past year or more. I'm not a subscriber but wish I had been.
1. The FDIC has a letter of credit with Congress.
2. Banks are 3x better capitalized than they were in 1990-1991.
3. Deleveraging is strengthening balance sheets.
4. The media is overhyping.
5. Due to media overhyping, people have been diversifying their assets among many banks. There are alot less uninsured deposits than months ago.
6. The FDIC has the ability to raise insurance premiums.
7. The "list" is greater than 117.
8. A big bank will probably fail.
9. The FDIC will not be insolvent, nor will the USA.
10. The bulk of sub-prime mortgages due for reset occured this summer. Since forclosures usually take 90 days or more, expect the worse to be over in late fall.
11. The real estate market is already slowing its decline and will probably bottom by Spring 09.
12. There are a tremendous number of high quality banks.
13. There is still new bank creation, although slower than in previous years.
14. Stronger capitalization means more acquisition.
I can't lend much creedence to the FDIC's comments since they are walking the party line on #9 and #11. I cannot see the FDIC going insolvent on their current $45-$50 BILLION balance. If they get more money to go deeper, aren't they insolvent? There is no chance the RE market will bottom next year, or even before 2011 when things really start to hit the fan. That big bank mentioned is probably Lehman. The USA is already insolvent along with most big banks. Just because the FED continues to loan to big banks doesn't make them insolvent. The FED could have continued to loan to Bear Stearns but decided to let them crash and allow JPM and others to strip the carcass. Banks might appear better capitalized because so many have been combined into larger and "better" versions. It might only take 200 bank failures this time around to have the same effect as what 1000 did the last time around. The deleveraging process is essentially trying to reduce an "infinite" number (ie Quadrillion dollars to a few Trillion) which is essentially impossible. We're deleveraging old bets at such a slow rate as to be inconsequential. And in any case there are new leverages being added as we speak...something to the tune of +45% in 2007. Even as the mortgage battle winds down, banks still have to contend with credit default swaps and interest rate derivatives which dwarf the RE market derivatives.
roadrunner
Very interesting, IMO.
Platinum's Warning for Gold