<< <i>sorry.. i just find this all so amusing. gold hit 1000 and about 3% of this forum sold off their PMs. it just reminds me of the past and how much time goes by things never change. there is no target discussed when to sell... just buy and hold.. and hold.. and hold... and hold...
fc, you think you can beat the market? Be my guest - it takes alot of conviction to sell a few ounces of gold at $900 and then to buy a few ounces of silver at $13.00, and to claim clairvoyance over a few bucks.
If this were a trading game, you'd be all over it. But it's not. I left the pm market when gold was around $700 in 1980. Made a bunch of money in forward contracts on margin. Sent my wife to law school and bought a summer place outside St. Louis with some of the proceeds. In 1998, I got back in with physical bullion, both gold and silver, then platinum. I've got nice gains overall - big gains, actually. Top that. So the metals are getting hammered right now. Big whoop. >>
i am reading this as, "i have no goal in mind, no point i plan to sell, i am just being a gold bug and praying things work out".
that is the point i am trying to make. what is your exit strategy? eventually you will have to sell some of that PM or simply die with it. why not think it through, today, what your goals are? seems to make sense to me and would like to see a discussion on it.
Simple formula. Buy when you have some spare money, accumulate in a steady and responsible way, each according to their own ability. When it comes time to check out...sell the stuff!
exactly! i just want to see people have a plan in place when to sell the stuff.
Almost everyone who posts to this thread is smarter then I but i have to wonder when no one dumped their PMs when gold failed to stay above 1000 for more then a few days.
I feel that if more discussion revolved around that we would have many members here happy at the current prices of PMs as they would have met their goals.
It is now time to buy that 20-40 ounces each week of silver, one ounce of gold every other month and start the process over. I look forward to gold at 1000 and silver at 20 in the next few years to 5 years out.
i am reading this as, "i have no goal in mind, no point i plan to sell, i am just being a gold bug and praying things work out".
that is the point i am trying to make. what is your exit strategy? eventually you will have to sell some of that PM or simply die with it. why not think it through, today, what your goals are? seems to make sense to me and would like to see a discussion on it.
lol, no strategy. lol. fc, my liquidation begins the day that I see a change in our government's fiscal policies, or when I retire - whichever comes first. In the meantime, I might speculate here and there, in stocks or metals - wherever I am confident of my analysis. I do know when to exit an investment.
Right now, I see inflation problems, and liquidity problems. But, I am a simple man and I am sure that there are lots of things that I am not seeing.
I rode Intel up for a number of years, and ST Microelectronics as well. I made some money in soybeans the same summer that Hillary was buying cattle futures with her supporters' gifted money. I've also made nice money in Sprint PCS, and got out before the tech meltdown.
When I'm paying attention, I don't get burned. I'm paying attention now. Cash is good. Metals are good. Stocks (including ETFs) and Bonds are a fool's game right now. Most of all, a decent job is a big plus. Good luck to you.
yay! I've always been at the top of a trade -- always bought low, always sold high -- blah, blah, blah. etc.
Nope, not me. But I am pointing out to fc that the game isn't over just because gold topped $1,000 and that dumping gold on the way down during a correction is a trading strategy that isn't based on any fundamentals.
In my view, the fundamentals on precious metals have not changed and my position reflects that. I'm not jumping in and out of a market that is as schizoid as this one. I do believe that there is heavy manipulation right now that is intended to shake down everyone who doesn't have the strength of conviction in their own assessments of the situation.
My strategy with pms is steady accumulation at any price, until a change is noted in the way that world finance is being done. I don't predict a spike in pm prices as much as I anticipate a financial crisis. I trust the security that physical possession of precious metals provides, and I don't trust the financial establishment.
There, you've got my rationale. In the end, I think that the likelihood that I bought low and sold high will be in my favor. I trust my own judgement and fc needs to know the reasons why. Anyone can be wrong, but a trading mentality makes it harder to be right. That's my point.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
“i am reading this as, "i have no goal in mind, no point i plan to sell, i am just being a gold bug and praying things work out".
that is the point i am trying to make. what is your exit strategy?”
FC
I for one have no sell exit strategy!
That may sound foolish but on the other hand I do not want to hold a large amount of paper in this era where all corporations, banks, and governments, can just print all the worthless paper they desire with no regulation.
That said one cannot just set on a pile of gold for the next few decades. Each individual must decide just how much of the unused capitol can be tied up in PM’S.
PM’S must eventually be treated as a monetary store of value unto themselves as all the worlds’ currencies, and those that create wealth out of thin air eventually collapse, or are pegged to something of substance..
Regardless of what Mr. Sinclair, and many others currently say, and I admire much of their thinking, gold is NOT CURRENTLY a currency. It is however the best alternative on the planet as an insurance policy against those that would make the value of our money supplies worthless. If gold in fact had a currency status we would not see these wild 20% swings.
Every single government on the planet I can think of is currently a socialistic, or communist government, and we all know that these types of governments are bound for failure. Never in the history of man has one ever succeeded, but these governments can fool the people for a good long while until their systems collapse.
Currently there is more discussion of Marxism in our country than I have ever heard, what that means is that the MOB is waking up.
China is full right now with the Olympic games. After the games, China will become hungry again and start chewing up commodities - oil, gold, silver, wheat, steel, you name it. The giant panda will be on the rampage again. Hopefully they won't buck heads with the Soviet bear.
Hummmmmmmm...there was speculation in another forum that maybe the USMint rumor of suspending shipments and sales of bullion coins may be as a precursor to confiscation. The kitco forum contains some very interesting postings today, take a look. The last sentence of the last thread I read over there ended with... "There's gonna be some serious sh-t."
<< <i>Hummmmmmmm...there was speculation in another forum that maybe the USMint rumor of suspending shipments and sales of bullion coins may be as a precursor to confiscation. The kitco forum contains some very interesting postings today, take a look. The last sentence of the last thread I read over there ended with... "There's gonna be some serious sh-t."
<< <i>Hummmmmmmm...there was speculation in another forum that maybe the USMint rumor of suspending shipments and sales of bullion coins may be as a precursor to confiscation. The kitco forum contains some very interesting postings today, take a look. The last sentence of the last thread I read over there ended with... "There's gonna be some serious sh-t."
Duck and cover >>
i think that is tinfoil hat talk and expect it from a gold forum to be honest. the mint would suspend selling bullion rounds and etc.. until the price settles in my opinion. then business as normal.
Agreed, fc. If anyone ever thought there was any doom and gloom in this thread, they should camp out over there for a while and see how the serious doom and gloomers do it but they do have some very informative posts.
Every investor has the power to end gold manipulation. All he must do is lift a single finger - but at the right time, and at the right place.
If you had a chance to end gold manipulation, would you use it?
I can remember the days of 1999, when Bill Murphy and Chris Powell of GATA were serving every member of Congress with their evidence of gold-price manipulation by the top US bullion banks, by the Federal Reserve, and via the Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund. The result was a lot of raised eyebrows and some frantic paper shuffling - followed by a roaring, deafening silence.
There is one reason, and one reason only why these banking cartel shenanigans and their attempts to control and subvert free operation of US markets continue, and that is the fact that Congress, with full knowledge of the subject matter and with a decent understanding of the potential ramifications (i.e., a gold derivatives meltdown), did exactly nothing to stop the abuse. All probably they did was tip off their banker buddies, saying: "hey, look at what I just received. You better get your act in order or this could blow up in your face."
The vast majority of Congressmen and women from that now bygone era are still holding their congressional seats. Others have joined them - but nothing has changed.
Why?
Because the corporate banking lobby has an iron grip on virtually every member of Congress. After all, the bankers, in particular those associated with the Federal Reserve System, are providing Congress with its ever-expanding and revolving line of credit - the line that not Congress, but you and I, are on the hook for.
Naturally, those members of Congress who originally allowed themselves to be bribed in order to pass the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 have long since passed on. They can no longer be held accountable, but their currently incumbent successors are benefiting from that heist just the same, if not more so.
Back in the days of 1913, that revolving line of credit could not be dug into quite as deeply and as freely by the Federal Reserve because the gold standard still limited the Fed's power. Unsurprisingly, when FDR signed Americans' birthright to a sound currency away by executive decree in 1933, Congress did what it has always done best, when it really counts.
It did nothing.
Nothing for Americans, that is. It did a lot for the banking cartel, however.
No Due Process
The Fifth Amendment to the Constitution precludes the government from depriving the people of their property without due process of law. A president's issuance of an executive order does not constitute due process of law. An executive order also cannot (constitutionally speaking) accomplish what the Congress is prohibited from doing.
In law, the term "due process" signifies at minimum a right to be heard and to present evidence in one's defense. In 1933, Americans' rights to their property and their right to due process of law were ignored. Congress has the absolute right and power to scrutinize and overturn any executive order that any president may issue - but just ike today, it did nothing in 1933.
No Financial Privacy
Congress also did nothing to stop president Bush's power grab in 2001, when it passed the clandestinely substituted White House version of the USA "Patriot" Act with a large, bipartisan majority in both houses.
The Patriot Act robbed Americans of whatever financial privacy they had left from the Clinton years, during which it passed Clinton's Anti-Terrorism bill, and from the "Bush the elder" years when the "war on drugs" was the excuse du jour for depriving Americans of their rights.
The Patriot Act allowed the FBI to force gold dealers and others to turn their clients' transaction records over without being allowed to notify their clients of that fact, based on a mere letter written by the FBI, without court supervision and without judicial review. It also allowed warrantless, clandestine "sneak and peek" searches of your home in your absence without you ever knowing that the FBI ad come into your house, copied your computer's hard drive, and looked for anything else that "incriminates" you in their eyes.
The list goes on and on, but the fact remains that, if those we elect to Congress truly took their mandate seriously, i.e., their mandate to represent you and to protect your constitutionally guaranteed rights, none of this would have happened.
Gold and silver would still be the 'currency of the realm.' The Federal Reserve banking cartel would not exist and would never have been able to inflate you out of home and hearth. The gold manipulation schemes of the 1960s and 1990s would never have occurred. An organization like GATA would never have had a reason to exist, and millions of gold investors would never have been lured into selling their precious metals by flase market signals. Financial privacy would still exist. The specter of gold confiscation would never even have become an issue for investors. A 1913 dollar would still be worth a dollar instead of a piddling two cents. The Solution
Yet, a simple, painless, and free solution to all of this legislative abuse exists, and that solution quite literally lies at your fingertips. It is utterly and completely in your hands. It lies totally within your power. All that any voting member of the American public needs to do in order to exercise it is to literally lift a single finger - and let it come down next to the name of your congressional incumbent's most formidable challenger.
That's all it takes.
Why wiill this be effective?
Because it is easy to do, it is free, it costs you no more of your time than you already spend going to the polls, and it carries absolutely no risk for your life, liberty, or property. The founding fathers only wished they could have had it this easy. That's why they set it up that way, for our benefit. All we have to do is lift our voting finger and let it come down on the right part of the voting screen.
Of course, your vote alone is no guarantee of ultimate success - but you still have the right of free association under the First Amendment, remember?
You can join a Fire Congress! Meetup in your area and organize with other like-minded Americans to oust your local congressional incumbent aa s well as your state's incumbent US Senator if he runs for reelection this fall. (Hint: Don't brush past that link just above. Click on it. Read it.)
Why does this rather political-leaning essay appear on a gold investment web site? Because you come here for information that helps you protect your investments and hopefully profit from them. You no longer have the luxury to wait for the free market to do the job for you. Markets are no longer free, and they are getting less and less so, every day.
You also don't have the luxury of sitting back and waiting to see if someone else does the job for you - like your political leaders, for example. You know where that has led you: right to where you are now.
Asking for their help when the corporate banking lobby has way more by the way of "incentives" to pitch their way is like asking a mugger to hold your wallet while you dig through your pockets for change. Only firing them, one and all, at every election, unless they do their job right, holds any promise of real change. Not even a "better" president can accomplish what you can accomplish by voting them out every time. The ruling elite will know you are paying attention, for once.
So, what about the great gold bull market that is continuing on in spite of all this manipulation? Won't that bail you out? Maybe - unless even the last vestiges of free markets are destroyed or sufficiently stifled because of your credulity and passive inaction. Freedom only exists if people fight for it. It's no different in the markets.
Party? What Party?
It does not even matter who gets elected in his or her place. Party politics has proven to be a devastating snare to Americans' rights as citizens. Whatever your ideological position in life, whatever party you belong to, your party has done its level best to betray you.
If you are a Republican-leaning voter, you know what happened to the "Revolution of 1994" - precisely nothing.
If you are a Democrat-leaning voter, you know what happened to the supposed "takeover" of the House of Representatives in 2006.
Nothing.
You never get what you vote for, anyway, when you vote based on party label. Now, on the other hand, you have a chance to get what you vote for by simply ignoring any party labels and voting out the incumbent, whoever he is. How about that?
If financial privacy, an end to gold manipulation, and secure ownership of precious metals is what you want, consider the possibilities:
The Return of Honest Money
A Congress made up completely of freshmen in 2009, and every two years thereafter, will remove all entrenched, lobbyist-infested power interests in DC. Such a Congress will be composed of nothing but newbies, who will all look around and see nothing other than more newbies, just like them except for Ron Paul. They will only have ten-term Congressman Ron Paul to look to for guidance. He could easily become speaker of the house.
Why him? Because he is unchallenged for his seat. No Democrat is even trying to run against him, and his neocon-challenger was trounced with a stinging 70% defeat at the primary-election polls this past March.
His Honest Money Act of 2007 could finally be passed, eliminating the banking cartel's monopoly over currency issuance and monetary debasement, reinstating your right to demand gold and silver for payment of services rather than having to accept worthless paper/electronic pseudo-dollars.
Even the Federal Reserve Act itself could be repealed, ending its monopoly over determining the "price of money" (interest rates) by inflating/deflating our money supply. The Federal Reserve Act is only a law, you know. It only takes a simple majority to repeal it - and the way to achieve that majority is to deny the banking lobby access to its usual crop of carefully groomed legislative gofers.
Oil price manipulation to the upside (by probably the same financial houses who are rigging the gold price downward) could be ended in a heartbeat and your declining dollars could at least buy a reasonable amount of gasoline and heating oil again.
The threat of a final Fed-takeover of all aspects of the US financial system could be averted and stopped for good.
A Brand-New Congress - Every Two Years
If the same thing happens at every congressional election from here on out, Washington will take notice. It will notice that Americans have taken the political reigns back into their own hands - and out of the corporate and banking lobby's hands.
Yes, this does require a shift in thinking - but isn't that better than losing your wealth, your assets, and your rights?
There are many very reasonable objections to this approach - and they have all been dealt with at this exhaustive FAQ.
Impossible?
Do you believe it's impossible for you to do this? You are right - because if you believe that, you will not avail yourself of this simplest and most effective of all solutions the Founders gave you to right the wrongs done to you by the financial and political class.
Possible!
Do you believe that it is possible? You are absolutely right! No one can deny you the right to fight for your financial freedom by using this legal, peaceful, and super-effective method. All it takes is the willingness to try a new approach. The old one based on party-loyalty and the "follow the leader" mentality surely hasn't worked. And neither did running and trying to hide your assets, did it?
You still have the right to speak freely.
You still have the right to associate with whomever you please for the greater good of your country.
You still have the right to vote.
Nowhere to Run - Just Somewhere to Fight
If you are still looking for ways to spirit your wealth out of this country into so-called offshore "tax havens" or whatnot, you are fooling yourself. The Patriot Act, its precursors and its progeny have made that option obsolete. Even Switzerland had to buckle under and began to collect taxes from its depositors on behalf of the European Union. Likewise, the IRS under the US Treasury Department has long since subverted financial privacy in the Caribbean banking centers - all under the lack of supervision and with the outright complicity of Congress.
Been away on vacation for a few days.--Actually still am
It is refreshing to see the conviction of the forum members. No wishy washy talk. I like it. In light of recent PM activities, I will refresh my conviction that I believe the PMs to be nothing more than trading vehicles, just like any asset. There is no PPT or any other conspiracy. Just plain 'ole free market capitalism at work.
Take advantage of this volatility. You have the potential to make more money in PMs in the next few months than you did in the last few years. For the record, I did buy 5000 SLV this morn just before I tackled the Canadian Rockies. Wife saw a grizzly while I was fussing with the kids. Figures.
I do see the dollar pushing to near 78, and SLV may have just a little more downside, but at 12.70 looks like a pretty good risk/reward. I am not looking for 19 or anything remotely close, but will take a $1 bill, 5000 times in a heartbeat, even if it is a worthless greenback. LOL. Happy trading.
But what are they besides commodities? They are raw materials for jewelry, coins, industrial uses, etc. And are they really "coupled" to currencies, or just denominated in currencies? How would you value an ounce of gold (or a ton of aluminum, cotton, etc), if not in dollars or euros
So what's an FRN other than ink and high quality paper? Why should anything be coupled to paper and ink? I'll take the commodity. Nothing wrong with having currency as long as it is coupled in some way to a real physical commodity of some sort. I've suggested beanie babies, Mantle Rookie cards or Pez dispensers in the past, buy maybe gold is a better choice.
I am curious what the gold bug mail lists, like Sinclair, are saying right now. "hold on tight, this is just a minor correction!" and so forth..."buying opportunity at these levels" was said a few days ago... so now must be the REAL buying opportunity.
do they ever mention the word sell? heh.
sorry.. i just find this all so amusing. gold hit 1000 and about 3% of this forum sold off their PMs. it just reminds me of the past and how much time goes by things never change. there is no target discussed when to sell...just buy and hold.. and hold.. and hold... and hold...
Before you comment on Sinclair and others maybe you should take the time to read them first. Sinclair does not recommend buy and sell points. He passes along knowledge of the financial and commodities markets and lets you make the call what to do with that. Right now he is not recommending buying or selling but has continued to state the condition of the financial world to let you make the decision as to buy or sell. He does say that nothing has changed for the better in the past 2 weeks except that things have gotten worse in financial markets. In that light, the dollar rally and commodities pull-back is indeed odd. The published GDP figure of +1.8% the last quarter was a sham since it used a 1.1% inflation "deflator." Even using the understated 4.1+% figure of the CPI would have lowered the +1.8% GDP to -1.2%. Imagine the carnage if that figure was published! Smoke and mirrors, calm the sheeple.
A number of gold analysts didn't recommend buying metals while they were in the sub $1000 range since March. I saw one that suggested selling 3 weeks ago (Rosen, Droke, and others).
Jmski is right on the trading thing. It takes some real skill. And right when you think you have it nailed you get a whallop. Sinclair doesn't recommended trading other than to sell 1/3 on strength and buy back that 1/3 on weakness. His 2 cornerstones are to only buy on weakness and sell on strength. If you are in the market on margin or to only speculate he asks that you don't return. He gives you the means to be able to use the tools to chart gold but he has been adamant about not providing trading tips (or cycle highs and lows) to his general readership. That's not what he's about. If you followed his tools over the past few months, and not listened to just published words, you would have probably bailed out in the upper 900's just a month ago. But I was surprised that he mentioned he was loading up at $940 gold just a few weeks ago. I would surmise that he unloaded that same truck by $900. Who knows. If you want day to day trading advice, he's not the one to get it from. He didn't sound any warnings about $1030 gold. It's up to each individual investor to develop their skills. If trading is not for you, then buy when it's dirt cheap and hold on. I took JS' advice in 2002-2004 and bought when it was dirt cheap. It really doesn't matter how we get to $1500 just as long as we get there. And we will. Nothing has been fixed in the financial markets, just dressed over and band aid applied to the 5" wide gaping abdominal wound.
JS did call for $1200 gold by year's end. It might be the first time he is wrong about a major milestone or "angel." What he really means is that the world financial conditions can give us $1200 gold by year's end. The fact that FED and central bank interventions might prevent that this soon is another factor. They'll sell off all their gold if they have to keep the paper markets from cracking. To those that have followed JS since 2002 and earlier, he road-mapped the current financial mess to an exact tee. Richard Russell and other stock/metal luminaries preach that they buy physical gold to keep, not to trade with. If you want to speculate, do it with GLD or the other ETF's knowing that paper is well-manipulated. The fact that the ETF's are owned by the very banks under the control of the FED banking monopoly makes me wonder why anyone would invest in them.
Maybe fc could trot out his gold, currency, stock and bond gains over the past several years just as a counterpoint to gold. It's easy to arm chair quarter back the big drops in gold and say I told you so (the last one was at $730 back in April 2006). If you follow Nadler's advice you'd never buy an ounce of gold. By the time JN realizes the next bottom in gold is long gone, it will be too late to buy again until the next big correction 6-18 months down the road. He never loses money for his clients....just doesn't make them any either.
Even Jesse Livermore stated that to make real money you had to ride the trend to the end. Sure, you can trade in and out and try to make 10% here or there, but the odds are that you'll sell out at the wrong time and miss the biggest moves. Those that got in gold at say $300-$400 and plan to hold until we fix our financial problems will do just fine. If you sold 1/3 at obvious strength back in March as gold headed above $950-$1000, you made good money. The choice was there for all of us to take. A word from Sinclair or anyone else should not be needed. You can bet though that JS sold his 1/3 somewhere north of $1000.
Hummmmmmmm...there was speculation in another forum that maybe the USMint rumor of suspending shipments and sales of bullion coins may be as a precursor to confiscation. The kitco forum contains some very interesting postings today, take a look. The last sentence of the last thread I read over there ended with... "There's gonna be some serious sh-t."
Worse than that, there was a bill being circulated in congress last year that would give control of the USMint and the BEP to the FED. An actual US congressman proposed such lunancy. The FED figures that since they control the banks, they might as well control the ciruculating coin and currency as well to save on the expenses of the USMint. What I really think the goal is to control the issuing of gold coins. With the FED having final say on USMint commem programs, etc, there could be a point where they refuse to issue any more gold coins since they do compete with the US dollar. Seems the FED simply lusts to be the USgovt. Just my 2 cents.
So where all the buyers of sub $800 gold that have been waiting since March to get back in? Are they now waiting for sub-$700?
mhammerman, the G&E thread wasn't getting the response in the Coin Forum as many others were popping new threads every day. In this location this will get more play time.
I think we'll see as many new posts here pay day than the regular coin forum. I know I'll be spending more time here and will feel free to put up new posts as well. Over in the coin forum I felt it was in bad taste to have more than one gold thread running. Now the sky's the limit.
Now if we can just keep the likes of Mr. Eureka from being off topic area 42 should prosper.
Remember, never swim in a shark tank. When everyone starts grabbin this and grabbin that and a bunch of folk go "all in" it's a good time to put your money in your pocket and take the wife to dinner and don't forget to wear that cute grin on your face while you sip wine together.
So, think about it...folk talking about cheap silver but you can't buy any physical because no one is going to let any go right now. Seems that the price of silver posted as spot is just paper silver, real silver isn't that low. The paper has invaded spot to where spot and physical are decoupled...and that's weird. Lots of people will be playing paper silver next week; it'll be fun to watch. If your in, good luck; if you're out and decided to go to dinner instead...yeah baby!
<< <i>mhammerman, the G&E thread wasn't getting the response in the Coin Forum as many others were popping new threads every day. In this location this will get more play time.
I think we'll see as many new posts here pay day than the regular coin forum. I know I'll be spending more time here and will feel free to put up new posts as well. Over in the coin forum I felt it was in bad taste to have more than one gold thread running. Now the sky's the limit.
Now if we can just keep the likes of Mr. Eureka from being off topic area 42 should prosper.
roadrunner >>
I'm not so sure.
Many of us don't have nearly the interest in metals that we do in coins. I used to open this thread with every new post by some of the regulars and respond if appropriate. Since I won't look in as often on this forum a response will probably be less timely as less likely to be made.
I was hoping this would be the one thread which survived the move.
GoldSaint can be proud though that it's not only the longest thread ever on the coin forum but the only thread which ever spawned its very own forum.
<< <i>Remember, never swim in a shark tank. When everyone starts grabbin this and grabbin that and a bunch of folk go "all in" it's a good time to put your money in your pocket and take the wife to dinner and don't forget to wear that cute grin on your face while you sip wine together.
So, think about it...folk talking about cheap silver but you can't buy any physical because no one is going to let any go right now. Seems that the price of silver posted as spot is just paper silver, real silver isn't that low. The paper has invaded spot to where spot and physical are decoupled...and that's weird. Lots of people will be playing paper silver next week; it'll be fun to watch. If your in, good luck; if you're out and decided to go to dinner instead...yeah baby! >>
When the manufacturers can't get silver all hell will break loose. They can't process paper to make silver without divine intervention so they'll either wait for a miracle with factories down or they'll bid up the price.
Don't assume this will happen soon but they need scrap to make up the difference between mining and consumption and if you can't buy it for spot then they can't either.
We'll just have to see how this plays out. Retailers holding silver for high- er prices will probably be forced to sell for business reasons eventually.
My local dealer is asking $1 over spot for silver rounds....more for bars though I don't think he has any. Also asking $3 over spot for ASE's. There is basically no silver to be had locally. A paper drop so far.
"Many of us don't have nearly the interest in metals that we do in coins."
I'm with ya'. Same here but when metal's hot like it is now, it gets me fired up. Steady accumulation has resulted in enough stash that I can enjoy watching for a change and not get drawn into the fire but it is still very entertaining, kind of like watching a prize fight between world heavy weights...Cassius Clay on steroids, Joe Foreman when he's hungry...there's gonna be a lotta ropa dopin' in the next few weeks who the roper and who the doper is still has to be decided.
It's not like I'm a primadonna or anything, I've been and been out. I was holding $8 silver for so long it grew mold and finally just took the loss to buy Morgans now if you wanna talk about bad getting worse. Finally decided that steady accumulation and an occasional small sell at some rediculous price was a no lose strategy, it just takes time. Now time has passed. This is my dream mule: A '52 O rev with a 61 obv on the table like that. Certainly no one can afford the real thing.
Do they know more than us? Are they holding out till the climb upward?
Scott
Edit: I just noticed that the 08 proof ASE is no longer available, at $32. >>
I can think of a couple of reasons why the Mint would suspend sales of Proof Eagles at $32.....
1. They are going to down price the items. BUT first will take them off the market for the amount of time to expire so those who just bought them will not be able to return them.
2. OR.... Something more is in the works and silver and gold will be not as easy to get from the Mint any longer..... draw your own conclusions...
So, think about it...folk talking about cheap silver but you can't buy any physical because no one is going to let any go right now. Seems that the price of silver posted as spot is just paper silver, real silver isn't that low. The paper has invaded spot to where spot and physical are decoupled...and that's weird.
I don't think they're permanently decoupled, I just think the holders haven't come to terms with the price drop, and are reluctant to sell at spot. A lack of demand at those price levels will force their hand though, and they'll release it to the market. Buyers aren't going to buy silver at $15 when spot is $12, and sellers aren't going to sit on it forever.
<<They are going to down price the items. BUT first will take them off the market for the amount of time to expire so those who just bought them will not be able to return them.>>
Just spoke with a Mint rep, and the 08 proof ASE in not available period, not suspended.
I also asked her about repricing of bullion products, she said, "there is a possiblity in the future". Tried to dig for more, her lips were sealed.
She was also aware that PMs have fallen signifigantly. So possibly some repricing may be around the bend?
<< The FED figures that since they control the banks >>
... thought the banks controlled the Federal Reserve. You know the Rothchilds, Warburgs, Lehman, Chase, Morgan, etc.
My point was that the FED (including it's member bank owners as listed above) essentially control the banking sector. That means all the banks. And regulating the USMint and BEP would be cap a clean sweep for the FED ownership. We might as well toss in the keys to the executive washrooms at the Capitol.
The total mintage of the ASE proof is close to 700,000. Not low, but certainly one of the lowest of the series. If this happens to 2008 W ASE Uncirculated at currently 345,000 it will dethrone the 2006 W ASE. I have 10 FS MS 2008 W ASEs self made and will not sell yet.
I also agree that there is a decoupling of paper silver/gold and actual physical silver/gold. Could the price dive be driven by the selling of the paper instead of the actual physical gold. Is there anyway to track this? Maybe both should be traded separately. Since the paper does not have the actual physical gold to back it up. Another ponzi scheme and the house of cards has finally happened maybe. I really don't know much about these factors, so just guessing here. Any opinions?
<< <i>Any thoughts on why the financial press has not noted the lack of supply of physical silver and gold? It would make for good ratings. >>
Maybe the shortage is due to the miners overselling their future productions when the prices were high, it would just take them some time to produce their products, there was a power problem in South Africa.
Coin Collector, Chicken Owner, Licensed Tax Preparer & Insurance Broker/Agent. San Diego, CA
Musharraf just resigned. Jim Sinclair is more worried about Pakistan than any other geopolitical situation. I have to say that between Pakistan and Russia, the world really didn't need these additional problems.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
To grasp the initial, primary, legitimate purpsoe of leasing metals, you need to understand the concepts of:
"Contango" and "Backwardation."
"Carry-Trade" and "Arbitrage" are also good to grasp for a full understanding of leasing, BUT not necessary here.
(Use WIKI to get your brief and easily understood "definitions.")
......................
Ted Butler tried to explain "leasing" in lay-terms. His biases notwithstanding, his explanation is "understandable." (I did not edit out any of his "opinions;" he should have done that if he wanted folks to understand the simple explanation of the practice of "leasing.")
........
March 13, 2001
SILVER LEASING OR SILVER FLEECING?
By Ted Butler
(From James Cook, President of Investment Rarities: The following essay by Theodore Butler makes claims and arguments that are controversial. Although we have found Mr. Butler to be an accurate analyst of the silver market, we must nevertheless issue a disclaimer about the nature of his comments. These views did not originate with Investment Rarities and though we may agree, we lack the knowledge and insight to make such claims. This is Mr.. Butler’s show and we are conveying it to you without necessarily endorsing these statements.
Mr. Butler makes claims which at first blush appear to be somewhat libelous. He is aware of this but is not overly concerned about possible legal repercussions. We are presenting his statements, but we do not guarantee the accuracy or correctness of these somewhat inflammatory comments.)
Leasing 101
Recently, it occurred to me that the most important aspect of the gold and silver market, is not understood widely. I am referring to gold and silver leasing. I’ll attempt to define and analyze metal leasing here, but I must warn you - I’m not about to pull any punches. For almost five years, I have raised the issue that the leasing and forward selling of gold and silver is fraudulent and manipulative, and has artificially depressed the price of each. We are talking about some very large and well-known financial institutions who are involved in that fraud and manipulation. I recognize that these are serious charges on my part, and I do not make them lightly.
Allow me to explain myself, in the simplest words I can muster. Keep in mind, I am aware of no establishment voice that confirms my contention that leasing/forward selling of gold and silver is inherently dishonest. I think that is because this leasing/forward selling business has become so entrenched that even those who see the picture correctly, are reluctant to speak up. The only confirmation I seek here is that of the reader’s common sense.
The first thing you must do, in order to understand gold and silver leasing, is to take the word "lease", and throw it out the window. I believe that the very word is at the heart of the misunderstanding about metal leasing. Because, in gold and silver leasing, what actually takes place bears no resemblance to any other type of lease you have experienced. When you hear the word "lease", the logical response is that something is being "borrowed" for a fee. At the termination of the lease, that which is borrowed is returned. That’s what the word lease means. There are very few people in the US who have not participated in a lease. It is that ingrained experience, that causes the misunderstanding in gold and silver leases.
The difference between metals leasing and all other types of leasing is the "return" part. We all know that the item being leased must be returned or accounted for. And, to be sure, even in gold and silver leasing there is a stated contractual obligation to return any gold and silver loaned. But, here is where you must rely on your common sense and determine if what I am alleging is true. Something happens in every single gold and silver loan, at the outset of the transaction, that renders the whole concept of metals leasing as fraudulent. That something is that the collateral of a metals loan, the actual metal itself, is sold (or consumed) and thereby destroyed. That is the big difference. It is the main point. What kind of secured lease permits the security to be purchased by an unrelated third party? Yet, that is precisely what happens in every single gold and silver lease.
Look at it this way. If you owned a condominium, and decided to lease it out, in return for rent paid to you, you would hope and expect the tenant to maintain the property in decent shape. You wouldn’t expect him to trash it. One thing you certainly would not expect the tenant to do would be to sell your condo to someone else, and pocket the proceeds, even if the tenant promised to return your condo, or pay you back someday in the future. That would be preposterous. Outrageous! Illegal! Fraudulent! Yet that is precisely what happens in every gold and silver loan.
Because of this outrageous conveyance of property, metal loans are inherently fraudulent. And manipulative. It doesn’t matter who is participating in these loans. What matters is that the process itself and very nature of these metal loans is fraudulent, thereby tainting those who participate. If someone is involved in a metal loan, then they are automatically involved in widespread fraud and manipulation.
OK, so what exactly are these gold and silver loans, and who is involved? Remember, I’m trying to keep this simple and accurate. The big lenders are the Central Banks of various countries. The big borrowers are the gold miners (in silver, the list of borrowers is broader). The Bullion Banks serve as the middlemen. The Bullion Banks are household names – JP Morgan (Chase), Goldman Sachs, AIG, Bank of Nova Scotia and others. The scheme works like this. Central Banks, with their large holdings of gold and silver, "lend" metal to the Bullion Banks, who in turn, extract a promise to repay the Central Banks metal from mining companies out of future production. The mining companies get to sell or use the metal until the time of repayment. The key to the whole scheme is that the Central Banks offer their metal out on loan, for the lowest known interest rate in the Western World, typically one half to one percent per annum. Without that artificial low interest rate, gold and silver loans would not and could not exist. The first proof that these loans are rotten to the core is that the Central Banks, by accepting such a low return on their metal, are doing something unnatural, namely they are accepting less than what they could get. The Central Banks are in the driver’s seat. They could charge the bullion bankers any interest rate they choose, yet they accept a half and one percent per annum interest, where they could charge 10%. After all, what could the borrowers do?
The borrowers still have to return metal collateral that doesn’t exist. The Central Banks have the borrowers over a barrel, yet they only ask for 1%. More crazy than this, is hard to imagine. Here we have loans that can’t possibly be paid off collectively, and only 1% is accepted. Everyone knows that a secured mortgage on a home is at least 7%. Where do they get off charging 1% on a completely unsecured loan? In fact, the metal leases are worse than an unsecured loan because the currency with which they have to pay it back doesn’t exist.
Ask yourself this - how can an inert, basic material even throw off an interest rate, in the first place? Why any interest rate? This is the heart of the whole fraud. Metals can’t return an interest rate under any condition. Period. Let me repeat that - metals can’t possibly generate interest. Even though you may see offers for "interest " on gold and silver, it isn’t real interest that is being earned, it is something else. Just like the word "lease" is incorrectly used to describe what is really a sale, "interest" is a misleading word. This is not "interest", this is something entirely different. This is a fee paid by the Bullion Banks to the Central Banks for the physical transfer of their metal. It can’t be called a legitimate sale because only 1% of the proceeds is payable over the course of a whole year, and not the full value of the metal transferred. What it comes down to is this. The Central Banks are trusting the Bullion Banks to return something that can’t be returned and are accepting a 1% fee per year for this "privilege". That everyone accepts this Ponzi arrangement as a legitimate "loan with interest" is preposterous.
I don’t equivocate when I say these gold and silver loans can’t be paid back. Let me prove it to you. Oh, of course, some individual gold and silver loans are paid back, or rearranged from time to time. But, they can’t be paid back collectively. In fact, 99% of these loans are short term (one month to one year), and are automatically rolled over.
They are always rolled over. They have to be because they can’t be paid back. Here’s why. Since the old loans are always rolled over, and because new loans are constantly being created, there is a cumulative effect to these loans. They just keep growing and growing. It is generally accepted that a minimum of two years worth of world mine production is what these gold and silver loans have grown to. What this means is that, in order to pay these loans off, two full years of world mine production would be required.
Metal was borrowed, metal must be repaid. Two full years’ worth. Think about that. Think about how it could be possible for the world to take two full years of world gold and silver production, and set it aside to pay off these stupid, stupid loans. You have to imagine, for two long years a world with no new jewelry, no photography, no electronics. You can’t imagine that. That is impossible. Yes, that is why it is impossible for these loans to be paid back. And if you have a whole class of loans that can be proven, by common sense, to be impossible to be paid back, wouldn’t you consider that to be fraud? Wouldn’t you consider anyone engaged in granting new loans, or rolling over old loans, to be engaged in a fraud, wittingly or unwittingly?
But that’s only one of many proofs that gold and silver leasing is fraudulent and manipulative. Think about this. Leasing something allows you to use something for a fee. How in the world does someone "use" a bar of gold or silver? As a doorstop? There are only two ways you can "use" a bar of metal. Sell it or melt it. Period. Please think about this. If all you can do with a bar of metal, is sell it or melt it, how could such an item be leased in the first place? Only things that can legitimately be used can be leased. Money, cars, homes, machinery, airplanes, computers, even people themselves (contract workers), can be leased, because there is a utility value to each. But how can you lease an inert, non-utilitarian basic material? You can’t, legitimately. All you can do with such an item is sell it, or consume it. The simple point here is this - everyone is calling these gold and silver transactions leases, but that’s hogwash. They are sales, pure and simple. And if a financial transaction is intentionally mislabeled, in order to conceal its true nature, how can that not be some kind of fraud?
You see, since the only "use" one can derive from a bar of gold or silver is a sale or melt, all gold and silver loans are really sales or consumption. The metal that the Central Banks "loan" actually leaves the Central Banks vaults, and is sold by the Bullion Bankers to convert the metal into something useful - cash. You didn’t think anyone would actually "borrow" metal just to hold it and keep it secure, did you? That would make no sense. And, because the Central banks are selling, not loaning, we hit upon another fraudulent feature to these transactions. That is, the Central Banks, by lending, are really selling massive amounts of gold and silver, and are not reporting those sales. Because the disappearance of real metal from the vaults of the Central Banks is not being reported, the Central Banks who participate in gold loans have much less in their vaults than they publicly claim. That’s fraudulent reporting. The Central Banks will claim that they don’t have to report the actual metal missing from their vaults, because they are technically classified as "loans". They’re lying through their teeth. It is criminal, as far as I can tell. (Silver is not considered monetary, so the Central Banks don’t report any sales or "loan" sales.) So, when you see the official holdings of a Central Bank, if they are engaged in these metal loans, their books are cooked. They have less than they are reporting. It’s terrible.
But, the fraudulent reporting of phantom metal holdings, as bad as it is, is not the worst thing. The worst thing, by far, is the economic effect these loans have had on the price of gold and silver. It has decimated the price of each. Because these loans are really sales, real metal is dumped on the market when the loan is originated. And dump is too kind a word. There are a minimum of 150 million ounces of gold, and one billion ounces of silver, out on "loan" from the Central Banks. That means that over the past 10 years or so, 15 million ounces of gold, and 100 million ounces of silver have been sold each year, on average, as a result of these loans. Since the loans are never paid back, this is all extra supply. This is in addition to mine production, recycling and straight Central Bank sales. Think of it this way, since we have annual world mine production of roughly 75 million ounces of gold, and 500 million ounces of silver, gold and silver loans have dumped two full years of world mine production on the market. How could prices not go down, and stay down with that type of extra supply? Think of any commodity that you want. Imagine someone dumping two full years of production onto the market. In a free market, a change of 5% or 10% in supply or demand sends most commodities to price extremes. Now imagine 200%. It’s a wonder that gold and silver are not lower. This is the manipulation and fraud of all time.
There are no real defenders of metal leasing, the premise is too stupid. Let’s face it, if it wasn’t as fraudulent and manipulative as I claim, then folks would be able to poke holes in what I say. They don’t, because they can’t. But the purpose of this article is not to recite the evils of gold and silver leasing. The purpose is to explain to you just what has really been going on in the gold and silver markets for a positive and constructive goal.
Let’s face it, I have established a documented track record claiming fraud and manipulation in gold and silver. I don’t need to add to that documentation. My purpose here is to explain to you how you can profit from this outrageous situation. You know, when you’re given lemons, make lemonade. The upside to the ongoing manipulation of these fraudulent gold and silver loans is the once in a lifetime opportunity that today’s depressed prices offer. Were it not for these gold and silver loans dumping massive quantities of metal on the market, prices would be nowhere near where we are right now. This is an unintended consequence of the manipulation of gold and silver loans. Unintended, because the purpose of this whole loan experiment was, obviously, not to present you with the buy point of a lifetime. That’s just the way it has turned out.
What’s important for you to do, is to think this leasing business through, and if you decide I am right, to position yourself the best way possible to take advantage of the unraveling of this stupid idea. That is one thing I can almost guarantee you. This leasing will eventually be exposed for the fraud it is. The end will come suddenly, because all frauds end that way. What you have to do is to position yourself beforehand, and to make sure you are in the right vehicle. The choices are many and the pitfalls will be great. This 20-year experiment in lending something that can’t be lent is coming to an end. The end will be violent. There will be an upheaval in the gold and silver world that has never been witnessed before. No one, certainly not I, can pinpoint with accuracy all the effects of this upheaval. But, it’s going to be big, and it’s going to be bad. If you are positioned wrong, you can lose.
It’s no secret that my favorite play is real silver. I’m just trying to play it safe. I don’t think it is a time to try to be clever and take chances. If there were no such thing as silver, I would go with gold. But, there is such a thing as silver, so silver it is. I believe that will give you the biggest, surest bang for your buck. Gold comes next. All paper contracts are suspect. Leverage should be avoided unless you are a dyed in the wool gambler, and are feeling real lucky. This isn’t a mining company forum, but if you pick a miner who is short (has promised to pay back-borrowed metal), a price rise could be disastrous, as it was to Ashanti and Cambior in the gold spike of September 1999. If you’re undecided on what to choose, keep it simple. Buy real silver. Don’t let the bluff of even lower manipulated prices throw you off the track. Use it to your advantage. Not only do you have the lease scam working in your favor, you have the added bonus of buying an item in critical shortage. Just keep in mind that the trick is to buy it before the leasing fraud is extinguished. To pass Leasing 101, you must be prepared for the final exam. There will be no "make-ups" offered. Good luck.
Folks Who Bite Get Bitten. Folks Who Don't Bite Get Eaten.
Aug. 19th The Producer Price Index is now at levels not seen since 1981. The PPI numbers came in this morning up 1.2% for the month, double expectations and after a 1.8% rise in June. On a year-over-year basis, inflation is running nearly 9.8%, a 27 year high.
57 loaded’s post says that there is less and less physical metals that can be delivered, and yet Gold and Silver are down again today. The manipulation is become so obvious now that any fool can see through theses downward markets. Like Dave I also loaded up on SLV this week, perhaps MORE is in order?
A continued good observation...I'm not sure that with our inflation number so high, things bode well that other currencies are FALLING against the dollar. To me, that's NOT a good sign. Naturally, the Chinese Yuan is RISING against the dollar at the moment...double whammy for my company...
Comments
<< <i>sorry.. i just find this all so amusing. gold hit 1000 and about 3% of this
forum sold off their PMs. it just reminds me of the past and how much time
goes by things never change. there is no target discussed when to sell...
just buy and hold.. and hold.. and hold... and hold...
fc, you think you can beat the market? Be my guest - it takes alot of conviction to sell a few ounces of gold at $900 and then to buy a few ounces of silver at $13.00, and to claim clairvoyance over a few bucks.
If this were a trading game, you'd be all over it. But it's not. I left the pm market when gold was around $700 in 1980. Made a bunch of money in forward contracts on margin. Sent my wife to law school and bought a summer place outside St. Louis with some of the proceeds. In 1998, I got back in with physical bullion, both gold and silver, then platinum. I've got nice gains overall - big gains, actually. Top that. So the metals are getting hammered right now. Big whoop. >>
i am reading this as, "i have no goal in mind, no point i plan to sell,
i am just being a gold bug and praying things work out".
that is the point i am trying to make. what is your exit strategy?
eventually you will have to sell some of that PM or simply die with
it. why not think it through, today, what your goals are? seems to
make sense to me and would like to see a discussion on it.
exactly! i just want to see people have a plan in place when to sell
the stuff.
Almost everyone who posts to this thread is smarter then I but
i have to wonder when no one dumped their PMs when gold failed
to stay above 1000 for more then a few days.
I feel that if more discussion revolved around that we would have
many members here happy at the current prices of PMs as they would
have met their goals.
It is now time to buy that 20-40 ounces each week of silver, one
ounce of gold every other month and start the process over. I look
forward to gold at 1000 and silver at 20 in the next few years to
5 years out.
i am just being a gold bug and praying things work out".
that is the point i am trying to make. what is your exit strategy?
eventually you will have to sell some of that PM or simply die with
it. why not think it through, today, what your goals are? seems to
make sense to me and would like to see a discussion on it.
lol, no strategy. lol. fc, my liquidation begins the day that I see a change in our government's fiscal policies, or when I retire - whichever comes first. In the meantime, I might speculate here and there, in stocks or metals - wherever I am confident of my analysis. I do know when to exit an investment.
Right now, I see inflation problems, and liquidity problems. But, I am a simple man and I am sure that there are lots of things that I am not seeing.
I rode Intel up for a number of years, and ST Microelectronics as well. I made some money in soybeans the same summer that Hillary was buying cattle futures with her supporters' gifted money. I've also made nice money in Sprint PCS, and got out before the tech meltdown.
When I'm paying attention, I don't get burned. I'm paying attention now. Cash is good. Metals are good. Stocks (including ETFs) and Bonds are a fool's game right now. Most of all, a decent job is a big plus. Good luck to you.
yay! I've always been at the top of a trade -- always bought low, always sold high -- blah, blah, blah. etc.
Nope, not me. But I am pointing out to fc that the game isn't over just because gold topped $1,000 and that dumping gold on the way down during a correction is a trading strategy that isn't based on any fundamentals.
In my view, the fundamentals on precious metals have not changed and my position reflects that. I'm not jumping in and out of a market that is as schizoid as this one. I do believe that there is heavy manipulation right now that is intended to shake down everyone who doesn't have the strength of conviction in their own assessments of the situation.
My strategy with pms is steady accumulation at any price, until a change is noted in the way that world finance is being done. I don't predict a spike in pm prices as much as I anticipate a financial crisis. I trust the security that physical possession of precious metals provides, and I don't trust the financial establishment.
There, you've got my rationale. In the end, I think that the likelihood that I bought low and sold high will be in my favor. I trust my own judgement and fc needs to know the reasons why. Anyone can be wrong, but a trading mentality makes it harder to be right. That's my point.
I knew it would happen.
“i am reading this as, "i have no goal in mind, no point i plan to sell,
i am just being a gold bug and praying things work out".
that is the point i am trying to make. what is your exit strategy?”
FC
I for one have no sell exit strategy!
That may sound foolish but on the other hand I do not want to hold a large amount of paper in this era where all corporations, banks, and governments, can just print all the worthless paper they desire with no regulation.
That said one cannot just set on a pile of gold for the next few decades. Each individual must decide just how much of the unused capitol can be tied up in PM’S.
PM’S must eventually be treated as a monetary store of value unto themselves as all the worlds’ currencies, and those that create wealth out of thin air eventually collapse, or are pegged to something of substance..
Regardless of what Mr. Sinclair, and many others currently say, and I admire much of their thinking, gold is NOT CURRENTLY a currency. It is however the best alternative on the planet as an insurance policy against those that would make the value of our money supplies worthless.
If gold in fact had a currency status we would not see these wild 20% swings.
Every single government on the planet I can think of is currently a socialistic, or communist government, and we all know that these types of governments are bound for failure. Never in the history of man has one ever succeeded, but these governments can fool the people for a good long while until their systems collapse.
Currently there is more discussion of Marxism in our country than I have ever heard, what that means is that the MOB is waking up.
R
"There's gonna be some serious sh-t."
Duck and cover
<< <i>Hummmmmmmm...there was speculation in another forum that maybe the USMint rumor of suspending shipments and sales of bullion coins may be as a precursor to confiscation. The kitco forum contains some very interesting postings today, take a look. The last sentence of the last thread I read over there ended with...
"There's gonna be some serious sh-t."
Duck and cover >>
yeah i read that too....
scary weird serious
<< <i>Hummmmmmmm...there was speculation in another forum that maybe the USMint rumor of suspending shipments and sales of bullion coins may be as a precursor to confiscation. The kitco forum contains some very interesting postings today, take a look. The last sentence of the last thread I read over there ended with...
"There's gonna be some serious sh-t."
Duck and cover >>
i think that is tinfoil hat talk and expect it from a gold forum to be honest. the mint would suspend selling bullion rounds and etc.. until
the price settles in my opinion. then business as normal.
The End of Gold Manipulation
by Alex Wallenwein
Every investor has the power to end gold manipulation. All he must do is lift a single finger - but at the right time, and at the right place.
If you had a chance to end gold manipulation, would you use it?
I can remember the days of 1999, when Bill Murphy and Chris Powell of GATA were serving every member of Congress with their evidence of gold-price manipulation by the top US bullion banks, by the Federal Reserve, and via the Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund. The result was a lot of raised eyebrows and some frantic paper shuffling - followed by a roaring, deafening silence.
There is one reason, and one reason only why these banking cartel shenanigans and their attempts to control and subvert free operation of US markets continue, and that is the fact that Congress, with full knowledge of the subject matter and with a decent understanding of the potential ramifications (i.e., a gold derivatives meltdown), did exactly nothing to stop the abuse. All probably they did was tip off their banker buddies, saying: "hey, look at what I just received. You better get your act in order or this could blow up in your face."
The vast majority of Congressmen and women from that now bygone era are still holding their congressional seats. Others have joined them - but nothing has changed.
Why?
Because the corporate banking lobby has an iron grip on virtually every member of Congress. After all, the bankers, in particular those associated with the Federal Reserve System, are providing Congress with its ever-expanding and revolving line of credit - the line that not Congress, but you and I, are on the hook for.
Naturally, those members of Congress who originally allowed themselves to be bribed in order to pass the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 have long since passed on. They can no longer be held accountable, but their currently incumbent successors are benefiting from that heist just the same, if not more so.
Back in the days of 1913, that revolving line of credit could not be dug into quite as deeply and as freely by the Federal Reserve because the gold standard still limited the Fed's power. Unsurprisingly, when FDR signed Americans' birthright to a sound currency away by executive decree in 1933, Congress did what it has always done best, when it really counts.
It did nothing.
Nothing for Americans, that is. It did a lot for the banking cartel, however.
No Due Process
The Fifth Amendment to the Constitution precludes the government from depriving the people of their property without due process of law. A president's issuance of an executive order does not constitute due process of law. An executive order also cannot (constitutionally speaking) accomplish what the Congress is prohibited from doing.
In law, the term "due process" signifies at minimum a right to be heard and to present evidence in one's defense. In 1933, Americans' rights to their property and their right to due process of law were ignored. Congress has the absolute right and power to scrutinize and overturn any executive order that any president may issue - but just ike today, it did nothing in 1933.
No Financial Privacy
Congress also did nothing to stop president Bush's power grab in 2001, when it passed the clandestinely substituted White House version of the USA "Patriot" Act with a large, bipartisan majority in both houses.
The Patriot Act robbed Americans of whatever financial privacy they had left from the Clinton years, during which it passed Clinton's Anti-Terrorism bill, and from the "Bush the elder" years when the "war on drugs" was the excuse du jour for depriving Americans of their rights.
The Patriot Act allowed the FBI to force gold dealers and others to turn their clients' transaction records over without being allowed to notify their clients of that fact, based on a mere letter written by the FBI, without court supervision and without judicial review. It also allowed warrantless, clandestine "sneak and peek" searches of your home in your absence without you ever knowing that the FBI ad come into your house, copied your computer's hard drive, and looked for anything else that "incriminates" you in their eyes.
The list goes on and on, but the fact remains that, if those we elect to Congress truly took their mandate seriously, i.e., their mandate to represent you and to protect your constitutionally guaranteed rights, none of this would have happened.
Gold and silver would still be the 'currency of the realm.'
The Federal Reserve banking cartel would not exist and would never have been able to inflate you out of home and hearth.
The gold manipulation schemes of the 1960s and 1990s would never have occurred.
An organization like GATA would never have had a reason to exist, and millions of gold investors would never have been lured into selling their precious metals by flase market signals.
Financial privacy would still exist.
The specter of gold confiscation would never even have become an issue for investors.
A 1913 dollar would still be worth a dollar instead of a piddling two cents.
The Solution
Yet, a simple, painless, and free solution to all of this legislative abuse exists, and that solution quite literally lies at your fingertips. It is utterly and completely in your hands. It lies totally within your power. All that any voting member of the American public needs to do in order to exercise it is to literally lift a single finger - and let it come down next to the name of your congressional incumbent's most formidable challenger.
That's all it takes.
Why wiill this be effective?
Because it is easy to do, it is free, it costs you no more of your time than you already spend going to the polls, and it carries absolutely no risk for your life, liberty, or property. The founding fathers only wished they could have had it this easy. That's why they set it up that way, for our benefit. All we have to do is lift our voting finger and let it come down on the right part of the voting screen.
Of course, your vote alone is no guarantee of ultimate success - but you still have the right of free association under the First Amendment, remember?
You can join a Fire Congress! Meetup in your area and organize with other like-minded Americans to oust your local congressional incumbent aa s well as your state's incumbent US Senator if he runs for reelection this fall. (Hint: Don't brush past that link just above. Click on it. Read it.)
Why does this rather political-leaning essay appear on a gold investment web site? Because you come here for information that helps you protect your investments and hopefully profit from them. You no longer have the luxury to wait for the free market to do the job for you. Markets are no longer free, and they are getting less and less so, every day.
You also don't have the luxury of sitting back and waiting to see if someone else does the job for you - like your political leaders, for example. You know where that has led you: right to where you are now.
Asking for their help when the corporate banking lobby has way more by the way of "incentives" to pitch their way is like asking a mugger to hold your wallet while you dig through your pockets for change. Only firing them, one and all, at every election, unless they do their job right, holds any promise of real change. Not even a "better" president can accomplish what you can accomplish by voting them out every time. The ruling elite will know you are paying attention, for once.
So, what about the great gold bull market that is continuing on in spite of all this manipulation? Won't that bail you out? Maybe - unless even the last vestiges of free markets are destroyed or sufficiently stifled because of your credulity and passive inaction. Freedom only exists if people fight for it. It's no different in the markets.
Party? What Party?
It does not even matter who gets elected in his or her place. Party politics has proven to be a devastating snare to Americans' rights as citizens. Whatever your ideological position in life, whatever party you belong to, your party has done its level best to betray you.
If you are a Republican-leaning voter, you know what happened to the "Revolution of 1994" - precisely nothing.
If you are a Democrat-leaning voter, you know what happened to the supposed "takeover" of the House of Representatives in 2006.
Nothing.
You never get what you vote for, anyway, when you vote based on party label. Now, on the other hand, you have a chance to get what you vote for by simply ignoring any party labels and voting out the incumbent, whoever he is. How about that?
If financial privacy, an end to gold manipulation, and secure ownership of precious metals is what you want, consider the possibilities:
The Return of Honest Money
A Congress made up completely of freshmen in 2009, and every two years thereafter, will remove all entrenched, lobbyist-infested power interests in DC. Such a Congress will be composed of nothing but newbies, who will all look around and see nothing other than more newbies, just like them except for Ron Paul. They will only have ten-term Congressman Ron Paul to look to for guidance. He could easily become speaker of the house.
Why him? Because he is unchallenged for his seat. No Democrat is even trying to run against him, and his neocon-challenger was trounced with a stinging 70% defeat at the primary-election polls this past March.
His Honest Money Act of 2007 could finally be passed, eliminating the banking cartel's monopoly over currency issuance and monetary debasement, reinstating your right to demand gold and silver for payment of services rather than having to accept worthless paper/electronic pseudo-dollars.
Even the Federal Reserve Act itself could be repealed, ending its monopoly over determining the "price of money" (interest rates) by inflating/deflating our money supply. The Federal Reserve Act is only a law, you know. It only takes a simple majority to repeal it - and the way to achieve that majority is to deny the banking lobby access to its usual crop of carefully groomed legislative gofers.
Oil price manipulation to the upside (by probably the same financial houses who are rigging the gold price downward) could be ended in a heartbeat and your declining dollars could at least buy a reasonable amount of gasoline and heating oil again.
The threat of a final Fed-takeover of all aspects of the US financial system could be averted and stopped for good.
A Brand-New Congress - Every Two Years
If the same thing happens at every congressional election from here on out, Washington will take notice. It will notice that Americans have taken the political reigns back into their own hands - and out of the corporate and banking lobby's hands.
Yes, this does require a shift in thinking - but isn't that better than losing your wealth, your assets, and your rights?
There are many very reasonable objections to this approach - and they have all been dealt with at this exhaustive FAQ.
Impossible?
Do you believe it's impossible for you to do this? You are right - because if you believe that, you will not avail yourself of this simplest and most effective of all solutions the Founders gave you to right the wrongs done to you by the financial and political class.
Possible!
Do you believe that it is possible? You are absolutely right! No one can deny you the right to fight for your financial freedom by using this legal, peaceful, and super-effective method. All it takes is the willingness to try a new approach. The old one based on party-loyalty and the "follow the leader" mentality surely hasn't worked. And neither did running and trying to hide your assets, did it?
You still have the right to speak freely.
You still have the right to associate with whomever you please for the greater good of your country.
You still have the right to vote.
Nowhere to Run - Just Somewhere to Fight
If you are still looking for ways to spirit your wealth out of this country into so-called offshore "tax havens" or whatnot, you are fooling yourself. The Patriot Act, its precursors and its progeny have made that option obsolete. Even Switzerland had to buckle under and began to collect taxes from its depositors on behalf of the European Union. Likewise, the IRS under the US Treasury Department has long since subverted financial privacy in the Caribbean banking centers - all under the lack of supervision and with the outright complicity of Congress.
It is refreshing to see the conviction of the forum members. No wishy washy talk. I like it. In light of recent PM activities, I will refresh my conviction that I believe the PMs to be nothing more than trading vehicles, just like any asset. There is no PPT or any other conspiracy. Just plain 'ole free market capitalism at work.
Take advantage of this volatility. You have the potential to make more money in PMs in the next few months than you did in the last few years. For the record, I did buy 5000 SLV this morn just before I tackled the Canadian Rockies. Wife saw a grizzly while I was fussing with the kids. Figures.
I do see the dollar pushing to near 78, and SLV may have just a little more downside, but at 12.70 looks like a pretty good risk/reward. I am not looking for 19 or anything remotely close, but will take a $1 bill, 5000 times in a heartbeat, even if it is a worthless greenback. LOL. Happy trading.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So what's an FRN other than ink and high quality paper? Why should anything be coupled to paper and ink? I'll take the commodity. Nothing wrong with having currency as long as it is coupled in some way to a real physical commodity of some sort. I've suggested beanie babies, Mantle Rookie cards or Pez dispensers in the past, buy maybe gold is a better choice.
I am curious what the gold bug mail lists, like Sinclair, are saying right now. "hold on tight, this is just a minor correction!" and so forth..."buying opportunity at these levels" was said a few days ago... so now must be the REAL buying opportunity.
do they ever mention the word sell? heh.
sorry.. i just find this all so amusing. gold hit 1000 and about 3% of this forum sold off their PMs. it just reminds me of the past and how much time goes by things never change. there is no target discussed when to sell...just buy and hold.. and hold.. and hold... and hold...
Before you comment on Sinclair and others maybe you should take the time to read them first. Sinclair does not recommend buy and sell points. He passes along knowledge of the financial and commodities markets and lets you make the call what to do with that. Right now he is not recommending buying or selling but has continued to state the condition of the financial world to let you make the decision as to buy or sell. He does say that nothing has changed for the better in the past 2 weeks except that things have gotten worse in financial markets. In that light, the dollar rally and commodities pull-back is indeed odd. The published GDP figure of +1.8% the last quarter was a sham since it used a 1.1% inflation "deflator." Even using the understated 4.1+% figure of the CPI would have lowered the +1.8% GDP to -1.2%. Imagine the carnage if that figure was published! Smoke and mirrors, calm the sheeple.
A number of gold analysts didn't recommend buying metals while they were in the sub $1000 range since March. I saw one that suggested selling 3 weeks ago (Rosen, Droke, and others).
Jmski is right on the trading thing. It takes some real skill. And right when you think you have it nailed you get a whallop. Sinclair doesn't recommended trading other than to sell 1/3 on strength and buy back that 1/3 on weakness. His 2 cornerstones are to only buy on weakness and sell on strength. If you are in the market on margin or to only speculate he asks that you don't return. He gives you the means to be able to use the tools to chart gold but he has been adamant about not providing trading tips (or cycle highs and lows) to his general readership. That's not what he's about. If you followed his tools over the past few months, and not listened to just published words, you would have probably bailed out in the upper 900's just a month ago. But I was surprised that he mentioned he was loading up at $940 gold just a few weeks ago. I would surmise that he unloaded that same truck by $900. Who knows. If you want day to day trading advice, he's not the one to get it from. He didn't sound any warnings about $1030 gold. It's up to each individual investor to develop their skills. If trading is not for you, then buy when it's dirt cheap and hold on. I took JS' advice in 2002-2004 and bought when it was dirt cheap. It really doesn't matter how we get to $1500 just as long as we get there. And we will. Nothing has been fixed in the financial markets, just dressed over and band aid applied to the 5" wide gaping abdominal wound.
JS did call for $1200 gold by year's end. It might be the first time he is wrong about a major milestone or "angel." What he really means is that the world financial conditions can give us $1200 gold by year's end. The fact that FED and central bank interventions might prevent that this soon is another factor. They'll sell off all their gold if they have to keep the paper markets from cracking. To those that have followed JS since 2002 and earlier, he road-mapped the current financial mess to an exact tee. Richard Russell and other stock/metal luminaries preach that they buy physical gold to keep, not to trade with. If you want to speculate, do it with GLD or the other ETF's knowing that paper is well-manipulated. The fact that the ETF's are owned by the very banks under the control of the FED banking monopoly makes me wonder why anyone would invest in them.
Maybe fc could trot out his gold, currency, stock and bond gains over the past several years just as a counterpoint to gold. It's easy to arm chair quarter back the big drops in gold and say I told you so (the last one was at $730 back in April 2006). If you follow Nadler's advice you'd never buy an ounce of gold. By the time JN realizes the next bottom in gold is long gone, it will be too late to buy again until the next big correction 6-18 months down the road. He never loses money for his clients....just doesn't make them any either.
Even Jesse Livermore stated that to make real money you had to ride the trend to the end. Sure, you can trade in and out and try to make 10% here or there, but the odds are that you'll sell out at the wrong time and miss the biggest moves. Those that got in gold at say $300-$400 and plan to hold until we fix our financial problems will do just fine. If you sold 1/3 at obvious strength back in March as gold headed above $950-$1000, you made good money. The choice was there for all of us to take. A word from Sinclair or anyone else should not be needed. You can bet though that JS sold his 1/3 somewhere north of $1000.
roadrunner
"There's gonna be some serious sh-t."
Worse than that, there was a bill being circulated in congress last year that would give control of the USMint and the BEP to the FED. An actual US congressman proposed such lunancy. The FED figures that since they control the banks, they might as well control the ciruculating coin and currency as well to save on the expenses of the USMint. What I really think the goal is to control the issuing of gold coins. With the FED having final say on USMint commem programs, etc, there could be a point where they refuse to issue any more gold coins since they do compete with the US dollar. Seems the FED simply lusts to be the USgovt. Just my 2 cents.
So where all the buyers of sub $800 gold that have been waiting since March to get back in? Are they now waiting for sub-$700?
roadrunner
edited to add: Interesting strategy, taking the most followed thread in the forum and shunting it out of the mainstream.
Good day for thinking.
I think we'll see as many new posts here pay day than the regular coin forum. I know I'll be spending more time here and will feel free to put up new posts as well. Over in the coin forum I felt it was in bad taste to have more than one gold thread running. Now the sky's the limit.
Now if we can just keep the likes of Mr. Eureka from being off topic area 42 should prosper.
roadrunner
<< <i>edited to add: Interesting strategy, taking the most followed thread in the forum and shunting it out of the mainstream. >>
////////////////////////////////////////////////
This board is already #6, on page-one at google.
There will be big traffic here, as time passes.
Precious Metals Forum
So, think about it...folk talking about cheap silver but you can't buy any physical because no one is going to let any go right now. Seems that the price of silver posted as spot is just paper silver, real silver isn't that low. The paper has invaded spot to where spot and physical are decoupled...and that's weird. Lots of people will be playing paper silver next week; it'll be fun to watch. If your in, good luck; if you're out and decided to go to dinner instead...yeah baby!
<< <i>mhammerman, the G&E thread wasn't getting the response in the Coin Forum as many others were popping new threads every day. In this location this will get more play time.
I think we'll see as many new posts here pay day than the regular coin forum. I know I'll be spending more time here and will feel free to put up new posts as well. Over in the coin forum I felt it was in bad taste to have more than one gold thread running. Now the sky's the limit.
Now if we can just keep the likes of Mr. Eureka from being off topic area 42 should prosper.
roadrunner >>
I'm not so sure.
Many of us don't have nearly the interest in metals that we do
in coins. I used to open this thread with every new post by some
of the regulars and respond if appropriate. Since I won't look in
as often on this forum a response will probably be less timely as
less likely to be made.
I was hoping this would be the one thread which survived the move.
GoldSaint can be proud though that it's not only the longest thread
ever on the coin forum but the only thread which ever spawned its
very own forum.
<< <i>Remember, never swim in a shark tank. When everyone starts grabbin this and grabbin that and a bunch of folk go "all in" it's a good time to put your money in your pocket and take the wife to dinner and don't forget to wear that cute grin on your face while you sip wine together.
So, think about it...folk talking about cheap silver but you can't buy any physical because no one is going to let any go right now. Seems that the price of silver posted as spot is just paper silver, real silver isn't that low. The paper has invaded spot to where spot and physical are decoupled...and that's weird. Lots of people will be playing paper silver next week; it'll be fun to watch. If your in, good luck; if you're out and decided to go to dinner instead...yeah baby! >>
When the manufacturers can't get silver all hell will break loose. They
can't process paper to make silver without divine intervention so they'll
either wait for a miracle with factories down or they'll bid up the price.
Don't assume this will happen soon but they need scrap to make up the
difference between mining and consumption and if you can't buy it for
spot then they can't either.
We'll just have to see how this plays out. Retailers holding silver for high-
er prices will probably be forced to sell for business reasons eventually.
roadrunner
in coins."
I'm with ya'. Same here but when metal's hot like it is now, it gets me fired up. Steady accumulation has resulted in enough stash that I can enjoy watching for a change and not get drawn into the fire but it is still very entertaining, kind of like watching a prize fight between world heavy weights...Cassius Clay on steroids, Joe Foreman when he's hungry...there's gonna be a lotta ropa dopin' in the next few weeks who the roper and who the doper is still has to be decided.
It's not like I'm a primadonna or anything, I've been and been out. I was holding $8 silver for so long it grew mold and finally just took the loss to buy Morgans now if you wanna talk about bad getting worse. Finally decided that steady accumulation and an occasional small sell at some rediculous price was a no lose strategy, it just takes time. Now time has passed.
This is my dream mule: A '52 O rev with a 61 obv on the table like that. Certainly no one can afford the real thing.
Why did the Mint suspend sales of 1oz. AGEs?
Do they know more than us? Are they holding out till the climb upward?
Scott
Edit: I just noticed that the 08 proof ASE is no longer available, at $32.
I thought the banks controlled the Federal Reserve. You know the Rothchilds, Warburgs, Lehman, Chase, Morgan, etc.
<< <i>Sort of OT but along the same line.
Why did the Mint suspend sales of 1oz. AGEs?
Do they know more than us? Are they holding out till the climb upward?
Scott
Edit: I just noticed that the 08 proof ASE is no longer available, at $32.
I can think of a couple of reasons why the Mint would suspend sales of Proof Eagles at $32.....
1. They are going to down price the items. BUT first will take them off the market for the amount of time to expire so those who just bought them will not be able to return them.
2. OR.... Something more is in the works and silver and gold will be not as easy to get from the Mint any longer..... draw your own conclusions...
I don't think they're permanently decoupled, I just think the holders haven't come to terms with the price drop, and are reluctant to sell at spot. A lack of demand at those price levels will force their hand though, and they'll release it to the market. Buyers aren't going to buy silver at $15 when spot is $12, and sellers aren't going to sit on it forever.
Just spoke with a Mint rep, and the 08 proof ASE in not available period, not suspended.
I also asked her about repricing of bullion products, she said, "there is a possiblity in the future". Tried to dig for more, her lips were sealed.
She was also aware that PMs have fallen signifigantly. So possibly some repricing may be around the bend?
Scott
... thought the banks controlled the Federal Reserve. You know the Rothchilds, Warburgs, Lehman, Chase, Morgan, etc.
My point was that the FED (including it's member bank owners as listed above) essentially control the banking sector. That means all the banks. And regulating the USMint and BEP would be cap a clean sweep for the FED ownership. We might as well toss in the keys to the executive washrooms at the Capitol.
roadrunner
I also agree that there is a decoupling of paper silver/gold and actual physical silver/gold. Could the price dive be driven by the selling of the paper instead of the actual physical gold. Is there anyway to track this? Maybe both should be traded separately. Since the paper does not have the actual physical gold to back it up. Another ponzi scheme and the house of cards has finally happened maybe. I really don't know much about these factors, so just guessing here. Any opinions?
Box of 20
bailouts of ECB by the Fed...or am i missing something?
man, that would make the USD go way way down wouldn't it?
It would make for good ratings.
<< <i>Any thoughts on why the financial press has not noted the lack of supply of physical silver and gold?
It would make for good ratings. >>
Maybe the shortage is due to the miners overselling their future productions when the prices were high, it would just take them some time to produce their products, there was a power problem in South Africa.
San Diego, CA
I knew it would happen.
can this be explained in layman's terms?
It would make for good ratings. "
/////////////////////////////////////////
Maybe because there is NO genuine "lack of supply."
Likely just a bunch of burried resellers not willing to lose money, yet.
<< <i>lease rates
can this be explained in layman's terms? >>
It is explained pretty well in the article I copied into the second post of This thread , at least I think that is what you are asking about.
<< <i>lease rates
can this be explained in layman's terms? >>
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
To grasp the initial, primary, legitimate purpsoe of leasing metals,
you need to understand the concepts of:
"Contango" and "Backwardation."
"Carry-Trade" and "Arbitrage" are also good to grasp for a full
understanding of leasing, BUT not necessary here.
(Use WIKI to get your brief and easily understood "definitions.")
......................
Ted Butler tried to explain "leasing" in lay-terms. His biases notwithstanding,
his explanation is "understandable." (I did not edit out any of his "opinions;"
he should have done that if he wanted folks to understand the simple
explanation of the practice of "leasing.")
........
March 13, 2001
SILVER LEASING OR SILVER FLEECING?
By Ted Butler
(From James Cook, President of Investment Rarities: The following essay by Theodore Butler makes claims and arguments that are controversial. Although we have found Mr. Butler to be an accurate analyst of the silver market, we must nevertheless issue a disclaimer about the nature of his comments. These views did not originate with Investment Rarities and though we may agree, we lack the knowledge and insight to make such claims. This is Mr.. Butler’s show and we are conveying it to you without necessarily endorsing these statements.
Mr. Butler makes claims which at first blush appear to be somewhat libelous. He is aware of this but is not overly concerned about possible legal repercussions. We are presenting his statements, but we do not guarantee the accuracy or correctness of these somewhat inflammatory comments.)
Leasing 101
Recently, it occurred to me that the most important aspect of the gold and silver market, is not understood widely. I am referring to gold and silver leasing. I’ll attempt to define and analyze metal leasing here, but I must warn you - I’m not about to pull any punches. For almost five years, I have raised the issue that the leasing and forward selling of gold and silver is fraudulent and manipulative, and has artificially depressed the price of each. We are talking about some very large and well-known financial institutions who are involved in that fraud and manipulation. I recognize that these are serious charges on my part, and I do not make them lightly.
Allow me to explain myself, in the simplest words I can muster. Keep in mind, I am aware of no establishment voice that confirms my contention that leasing/forward selling of gold and silver is inherently dishonest. I think that is because this leasing/forward selling business has become so entrenched that even those who see the picture correctly, are reluctant to speak up. The only confirmation I seek here is that of the reader’s common sense.
The first thing you must do, in order to understand gold and silver leasing, is to take the word "lease", and throw it out the window. I believe that the very word is at the heart of the misunderstanding about metal leasing. Because, in gold and silver leasing, what actually takes place bears no resemblance to any other type of lease you have experienced. When you hear the word "lease", the logical response is that something is being "borrowed" for a fee. At the termination of the lease, that which is borrowed is returned. That’s what the word lease means. There are very few people in the US who have not participated in a lease. It is that ingrained experience, that causes the misunderstanding in gold and silver leases.
The difference between metals leasing and all other types of leasing is the "return" part. We all know that the item being leased must be returned or accounted for. And, to be sure, even in gold and silver leasing there is a stated contractual obligation to return any gold and silver loaned. But, here is where you must rely on your common sense and determine if what I am alleging is true. Something happens in every single gold and silver loan, at the outset of the transaction, that renders the whole concept of metals leasing as fraudulent. That something is that the collateral of a metals loan, the actual metal itself, is sold (or consumed) and thereby destroyed. That is the big difference. It is the main point. What kind of secured lease permits the security to be purchased by an unrelated third party? Yet, that is precisely what happens in every single gold and silver lease.
Look at it this way. If you owned a condominium, and decided to lease it out, in return for rent paid to you, you would hope and expect the tenant to maintain the property in decent shape. You wouldn’t expect him to trash it. One thing you certainly would not expect the tenant to do would be to sell your condo to someone else, and pocket the proceeds, even if the tenant promised to return your condo, or pay you back someday in the future. That would be preposterous. Outrageous! Illegal! Fraudulent! Yet that is precisely what happens in every gold and silver loan.
Because of this outrageous conveyance of property, metal loans are inherently fraudulent. And manipulative. It doesn’t matter who is participating in these loans. What matters is that the process itself and very nature of these metal loans is fraudulent, thereby tainting those who participate. If someone is involved in a metal loan, then they are automatically involved in widespread fraud and manipulation.
OK, so what exactly are these gold and silver loans, and who is involved? Remember, I’m trying to keep this simple and accurate. The big lenders are the Central Banks of various countries. The big borrowers are the gold miners (in silver, the list of borrowers is broader). The Bullion Banks serve as the middlemen. The Bullion Banks are household names – JP Morgan (Chase), Goldman Sachs, AIG, Bank of Nova Scotia and others. The scheme works like this. Central Banks, with their large holdings of gold and silver, "lend" metal to the Bullion Banks, who in turn, extract a promise to repay the Central Banks metal from mining companies out of future production. The mining companies get to sell or use the metal until the time of repayment. The key to the whole scheme is that the Central Banks offer their metal out on loan, for the lowest known interest rate in the Western World, typically one half to one percent per annum. Without that artificial low interest rate, gold and silver loans would not and could not exist. The first proof that these loans are rotten to the core is that the Central Banks, by accepting such a low return on their metal, are doing something unnatural, namely they are accepting less than what they could get. The Central Banks are in the driver’s seat. They could charge the bullion bankers any interest rate they choose, yet they accept a half and one percent per annum interest, where they could charge 10%. After all, what could the borrowers do?
The borrowers still have to return metal collateral that doesn’t exist. The Central Banks have the borrowers over a barrel, yet they only ask for 1%. More crazy than this, is hard to imagine. Here we have loans that can’t possibly be paid off collectively, and only 1% is accepted. Everyone knows that a secured mortgage on a home is at least 7%. Where do they get off charging 1% on a completely unsecured loan? In fact, the metal leases are worse than an unsecured loan because the currency with which they have to pay it back doesn’t exist.
Ask yourself this - how can an inert, basic material even throw off an interest rate, in the first place? Why any interest rate? This is the heart of the whole fraud. Metals can’t return an interest rate under any condition. Period. Let me repeat that - metals can’t possibly generate interest. Even though you may see offers for "interest " on gold and silver, it isn’t real interest that is being earned, it is something else. Just like the word "lease" is incorrectly used to describe what is really a sale, "interest" is a misleading word. This is not "interest", this is something entirely different. This is a fee paid by the Bullion Banks to the Central Banks for the physical transfer of their metal. It can’t be called a legitimate sale because only 1% of the proceeds is payable over the course of a whole year, and not the full value of the metal transferred. What it comes down to is this. The Central Banks are trusting the Bullion Banks to return something that can’t be returned and are accepting a 1% fee per year for this "privilege". That everyone accepts this Ponzi arrangement as a legitimate "loan with interest" is preposterous.
I don’t equivocate when I say these gold and silver loans can’t be paid back. Let me prove it to you. Oh, of course, some individual gold and silver loans are paid back, or rearranged from time to time. But, they can’t be paid back collectively. In fact, 99% of these loans are short term (one month to one year), and are automatically rolled over.
They are always rolled over. They have to be because they can’t be paid back. Here’s why. Since the old loans are always rolled over, and because new loans are constantly being created, there is a cumulative effect to these loans. They just keep growing and growing. It is generally accepted that a minimum of two years worth of world mine production is what these gold and silver loans have grown to. What this means is that, in order to pay these loans off, two full years of world mine production would be required.
Metal was borrowed, metal must be repaid. Two full years’ worth. Think about that. Think about how it could be possible for the world to take two full years of world gold and silver production, and set it aside to pay off these stupid, stupid loans. You have to imagine, for two long years a world with no new jewelry, no photography, no electronics. You can’t imagine that. That is impossible. Yes, that is why it is impossible for these loans to be paid back. And if you have a whole class of loans that can be proven, by common sense, to be impossible to be paid back, wouldn’t you consider that to be fraud? Wouldn’t you consider anyone engaged in granting new loans, or rolling over old loans, to be engaged in a fraud, wittingly or unwittingly?
But that’s only one of many proofs that gold and silver leasing is fraudulent and manipulative. Think about this. Leasing something allows you to use something for a fee. How in the world does someone "use" a bar of gold or silver? As a doorstop? There are only two ways you can "use" a bar of metal. Sell it or melt it. Period. Please think about this. If all you can do with a bar of metal, is sell it or melt it, how could such an item be leased in the first place? Only things that can legitimately be used can be leased. Money, cars, homes, machinery, airplanes, computers, even people themselves (contract workers), can be leased, because there is a utility value to each. But how can you lease an inert, non-utilitarian basic material? You can’t, legitimately. All you can do with such an item is sell it, or consume it. The simple point here is this - everyone is calling these gold and silver transactions leases, but that’s hogwash. They are sales, pure and simple. And if a financial transaction is intentionally mislabeled, in order to conceal its true nature, how can that not be some kind of fraud?
You see, since the only "use" one can derive from a bar of gold or silver is a sale or melt, all gold and silver loans are really sales or consumption. The metal that the Central Banks "loan" actually leaves the Central Banks vaults, and is sold by the Bullion Bankers to convert the metal into something useful - cash. You didn’t think anyone would actually "borrow" metal just to hold it and keep it secure, did you? That would make no sense. And, because the Central banks are selling, not loaning, we hit upon another fraudulent feature to these transactions. That is, the Central Banks, by lending, are really selling massive amounts of gold and silver, and are not reporting those sales. Because the disappearance of real metal from the vaults of the Central Banks is not being reported, the Central Banks who participate in gold loans have much less in their vaults than they publicly claim. That’s fraudulent reporting. The Central Banks will claim that they don’t have to report the actual metal missing from their vaults, because they are technically classified as "loans". They’re lying through their teeth. It is criminal, as far as I can tell. (Silver is not considered monetary, so the Central Banks don’t report any sales or "loan" sales.) So, when you see the official holdings of a Central Bank, if they are engaged in these metal loans, their books are cooked. They have less than they are reporting. It’s terrible.
But, the fraudulent reporting of phantom metal holdings, as bad as it is, is not the worst thing. The worst thing, by far, is the economic effect these loans have had on the price of gold and silver. It has decimated the price of each. Because these loans are really sales, real metal is dumped on the market when the loan is originated. And dump is too kind a word. There are a minimum of 150 million ounces of gold, and one billion ounces of silver, out on "loan" from the Central Banks. That means that over the past 10 years or so, 15 million ounces of gold, and 100 million ounces of silver have been sold each year, on average, as a result of these loans. Since the loans are never paid back, this is all extra supply. This is in addition to mine production, recycling and straight Central Bank sales. Think of it this way, since we have annual world mine production of roughly 75 million ounces of gold, and 500 million ounces of silver, gold and silver loans have dumped two full years of world mine production on the market. How could prices not go down, and stay down with that type of extra supply? Think of any commodity that you want. Imagine someone dumping two full years of production onto the market. In a free market, a change of 5% or 10% in supply or demand sends most commodities to price extremes. Now imagine 200%. It’s a wonder that gold and silver are not lower. This is the manipulation and fraud of all time.
There are no real defenders of metal leasing, the premise is too stupid. Let’s face it, if it wasn’t as fraudulent and manipulative as I claim, then folks would be able to poke holes in what I say. They don’t, because they can’t. But the purpose of this article is not to recite the evils of gold and silver leasing. The purpose is to explain to you just what has really been going on in the gold and silver markets for a positive and constructive goal.
Let’s face it, I have established a documented track record claiming fraud and manipulation in gold and silver. I don’t need to add to that documentation. My purpose here is to explain to you how you can profit from this outrageous situation. You know, when you’re given lemons, make lemonade. The upside to the ongoing manipulation of these fraudulent gold and silver loans is the once in a lifetime opportunity that today’s depressed prices offer. Were it not for these gold and silver loans dumping massive quantities of metal on the market, prices would be nowhere near where we are right now. This is an unintended consequence of the manipulation of gold and silver loans. Unintended, because the purpose of this whole loan experiment was, obviously, not to present you with the buy point of a lifetime. That’s just the way it has turned out.
What’s important for you to do, is to think this leasing business through, and if you decide I am right, to position yourself the best way possible to take advantage of the unraveling of this stupid idea. That is one thing I can almost guarantee you. This leasing will eventually be exposed for the fraud it is. The end will come suddenly, because all frauds end that way. What you have to do is to position yourself beforehand, and to make sure you are in the right vehicle. The choices are many and the pitfalls will be great. This 20-year experiment in lending something that can’t be lent is coming to an end. The end will be violent. There will be an upheaval in the gold and silver world that has never been witnessed before. No one, certainly not I, can pinpoint with accuracy all the effects of this upheaval. But, it’s going to be big, and it’s going to be bad. If you are positioned wrong, you can lose.
It’s no secret that my favorite play is real silver. I’m just trying to play it safe. I don’t think it is a time to try to be clever and take chances. If there were no such thing as silver, I would go with gold. But, there is such a thing as silver, so silver it is. I believe that will give you the biggest, surest bang for your buck. Gold comes next. All paper contracts are suspect. Leverage should be avoided unless you are a dyed in the wool gambler, and are feeling real lucky. This isn’t a mining company forum, but if you pick a miner who is short (has promised to pay back-borrowed metal), a price rise could be disastrous, as it was to Ashanti and Cambior in the gold spike of September 1999. If you’re undecided on what to choose, keep it simple. Buy real silver. Don’t let the bluff of even lower manipulated prices throw you off the track. Use it to your advantage. Not only do you have the lease scam working in your favor, you have the added bonus of buying an item in critical shortage. Just keep in mind that the trick is to buy it before the leasing fraud is extinguished. To pass Leasing 101, you must be prepared for the final exam. There will be no "make-ups" offered. Good luck.
The Producer Price Index is now at levels not seen since 1981. The PPI numbers came in this morning up 1.2% for the month, double expectations and after a 1.8% rise in June. On a year-over-year basis, inflation is running nearly 9.8%, a 27 year high.
57 loaded’s post says that there is less and less physical metals that can be delivered, and yet Gold and Silver are down again today. The manipulation is become so obvious now that any fool can see through theses downward markets. Like Dave I also loaded up on SLV this week, perhaps MORE is in order?
A continued good observation...I'm not sure that with our inflation number so high, things bode well that other currencies are FALLING against the dollar. To me, that's NOT a good sign. Naturally, the Chinese Yuan is RISING against the dollar at the moment...double whammy for my company...
Are you guys getting your email notifications for new posts? I no longer seem to be getting these?