1. Gold was at 675 this time last year. That's a 21% increase to today. 2. Silly to talk about a bubble bursting after one month of data but some do it anyway. >>
Trends matter in markets, just like on airplanes. If your plane loses power at 30,000 feet, it's still higher in the air than it was right after takeoff, but the trend is all wrong.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
I'm betting against neither capitalism nor human interest when I invest in innovative health care companies with favorable demographics (don't underestimate amounts the baby boomers will spend on looking and feeling good over the next 40 years)
1. Gold was at 675 this time last year. That's a 21% increase to today. 2. Silly to talk about a bubble bursting after one month of data but some do it anyway. >>
Trends matter in markets, just like on airplanes. If your plane loses power at 30,000 feet, it's still higher in the air than it was right after takeoff, but the trend is all wrong. >>
True, but the outcome isn't necessarily a crash. If the weather's fine and you're over I-40 with no traffic in the plain states, you can weather this downturn.
O.K. Who has an opinion of why the gold markets are being driven down?
Every day it’s more bad news. Here is a sampling of today!
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Almost one-third of U.S. homeowners who bought in the last five years now owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth, according to Zillow.com, an Internet provider of home valuations. Second-quarter home prices fell 9.9 percent from a year earlier, giving 29 percent of owners negative equity.
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for the first time in three days after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it may post more credit losses, pushing the worldwide costs for the collapse of the subprime mortgage market to more than $500 billion.
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in June as the biggest jump in exports in more than four years overwhelmed record imports of petroleum. The gap shrank 4.1 percent to $56.8 billion from $59.2 billion in May, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's military campaign in Georgia may threaten the U.S. strategic aims of preventing Iran from building a nuclear bomb and securing Central Asian energy supplies for Europe.
<< <i> have been hammered by as much as 50% since the March peak. That is some serious hammering.
roadrunner >>
Similar to the real estate market here in SW Fla. I know that we've lost 50% of value on our house since 2006.
Had a customer who purchased a pre contruction "condo" for a g-note a sq ft in "Hialeah" of all places at the top. A million bucks for that. Lots of luck!
"Who has an opinion of why the gold markets are being driven down?"
It may well be that money has found a better place to be for the moment; a place that is somewhat safe and has a chance at growing a little. You gotta admit, gold doesn't seem to have much room for growth and oil is kind of played out for now. If corporations are buying hundred million dollar bundles of Alt-A and sub-prime foreclosure properties at 50 to 70 cents on the dollar, that seems like it would be a pretty tasty place to park some cash in my humble opinion. Money doesn't wait, it always goes where it can do the most good and if the banks can clear this poison off their sheets and get some cash in return, it's all the better.
Maybe it's as simple as the shorts put so much paper pressure on it that it just had to happen. Gold has been spectacular for the last couple of years so we should all be grateful for the doubling of price in such a short period of time.
I'm betting against neither capitalism nor human interest when I invest in innovative health care companies with favorable demographics (don't underestimate amounts the baby boomers will spend on looking and feeling good over the next 40 years)
So silicone is a more attractive investment than gold? I just might have to look in to that...
I guess the boys in Beachwood Ohio will be working for the Russian’s now!
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Carlyle Group, the world's second- largest private-equity firm, sold U.S. steelmaker John Maneely Co. to Russia's OAO Novolipetsk Steel for $3.5 billion, increasing its money sevenfold in two years.
John Maneely, which combined with Canada's Atlas Tube Inc. in December 2006, is based in Beachwood, Ohio.
It seems that this game is being played well above our heads; I'll be darned if I can tell who's punching the buttons but one thing for sure....GAME ON!
You would think that gold would be going up instead of down! Not the case...someone is hungry for some and I would also agree that real estate at bargan prices is a good guess also.
Yepper, this does bear discussion. Just methinkin gives me the idea that maybe this is kind of like a diversion, a morph of the bull head fake as in maybe some people are diving into the gold pile and buying as much as they can while everybody else is running away from it. I'm not one for conspiracies but now seems like an opportune moment for folk to grab Physical Metal at what would seem to be relatively discounted prices. As Mr Dylan once sang..."you know something is happening but you don't know what it is, do you Mr. Jones?" Then again, it might just be what it looks like; less pressure on metal, money moving to easier places, demand for PM falling in light of better opportunities, maybe it was a little expensive and over played, maybe the paper has to unwind a little to see who's actually got what...how can you tell. Good time for watching, just to see who comes out of the bushes with a smile on their face. tap tap tap tap tap tap tap
what confuses me is the direct tie to the USD index and not inflation...like world monetary inflation. the EURO has been "speaking" for the USD index because in comprise over 50% of the currenecies that make it up. some of gold's decrease has been the physical demand in India dropping.
there is stuff going on with metals that i just can't comprehend, or make sense, unless there is gross manipulation. maybe some capital need to be raised and the investment was gold that was sold.....still i don't understand the big drop in value.
maybe things will make sense in a few months.. i just don't see gold ever going to $1200 in the next few years, let alone above $1500...what is left to rattle the cage and unlock the door?
edited for gross misspeellings...lol
below from today's WSJ
Dollar Dims Gold Outlook Greenback's Rise Has Analysts Seeing Metal Below $800 By ALLEN SYKORA
August 13, 2008; Page C7 Gold may not be at the end of its plunge, with large speculators expected by some to dump more holdings and with the dollar threatening to continue to flex its newly strengthened muscles. Several analysts and strategists expect the metal to fall below $800 per ounce, although other market participants envision that the liquidation may be drawing to an end and gold may instead enter a consolidation phase. "It depends a lot on what happens to the dollar," said Gijsbert Groenewegen, managing partner of Gold Arrow Capital Management. "If the dollar further strengthens, then you will see a further decline in precious-metals prices."
He suspects the dollar will do just that, since economic weakness in Europe may keep the European Central Bank from increasing interest rates again, thereby undermining the euro. The euro hit a record intraday high of $1.6040 July 15. The same day, currently nearby August gold hit a four-month intraday high of $989.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, while most-active December touched $999.40. The euro has since fallen, reaching $1.4922 Tuesday. And August gold settled $13.30 lower at $808.20, while December lost $13.70 to $814.60. Much of the recent weakness in gold has been long liquidation by those looking to raise cash, said James Moore, an analyst with TheBullionDesk.com. "To be honest, I think we still have a little bit more downside to go," Mr. Moore said. "It wouldn't surprise me if we do trade a little below $800 -- possibly $765 to $750." Still, he believes gold fundamentals remain constructive. He cited reduced mine output in recent years, ongoing producer dehedging, still-lofty exchange-traded-fund holdings, and potential buying on pullbacks from those who "missed the boat" on the recent run-up in commodities. "Once we do have a period of correction and consolidation, we will start to level off and generate a more bullish mentality," Mr. Moore said. Jon Nadler, an analyst with Kitco Bullion Dealers, said he thinks gold could return to the upper-$700 area, and possibly fall to the $730-$740 region. "The overall trend really does not remain very friendly. It's based on the big structural shift of the dollar actually gaining traction on this rally," he said. Mr. Nadler also cited the recent pullback in oil, with Nymex September crude falling from a July 11 intraday peak of $147.90 a barrel to a three-month intraday low Tuesday of $112.31. "The hedge funds are evidently rotating out of the commodities sector and looking for greener pastures, basically," Mr. Nadler said. Frank Lesh, a futures analyst with FuturePath Trading, looks for gold to enter a sideways phase for the foreseeable future. "We've seen a lot of liquidation by the [speculative] funds," Mr. Lesh said. "But I think that is starting to run its course now. So I would expect the market to go into some consolidation down here around $800." In particular, market participants are watching to see whether bargain hunting emerges from physical buyers, particularly the key consuming nation of India.
Kitco's Senior Analist, John Nadler has been wrong on about every gold move since mid-last year. Ok, he finally hung around long enough to see gold get hit by a dollar blow off. He's now 1 for 35. And boy did he strut his plumage this week showing how "smart" he was. I suppose some newbie who starts reading him today would assume this jacka$$ knows what he's talking about. If Nadler has his way, you'd still be waiting from a year ago when gold started moving from $650 to buy back in on a dip? He never saw $700 coming, or $800, or $900, and certainly not $1000. Even at $800, that buy back doesn't look so good. I guess he'll be a genius when gold falls under $650. Until then, he's 1 for 35....and still the senior anal..ist.
If Schmidt is right, and he probably is, the dollar is hugely overbought at the moment, just as gold is more over-sold right now than at any other time since 2001. We'll see how Nadler's "structural shift in the dollar swings out. It could just as easily be a false "break out."
I still have no problem seeing $1200 or $1500 gold. It may not be this year for the next record price in gold but it's coming, and many more of them. The gold bull is trying to shake everyone off it can at the moment. I trust all those gold buyers who have been waiting for $810 gold since March, bought some back already.
Another forum member sent me a link to a 2003 thread that I found most amusing. There, another forum member was praising Greenspan for his "masterful" handling of the US dollar and the USE among other things. During that thread I suggested that we revisit this "masterfulness" 5 yrs later. Now that we're here, anyone else agree that Greenspan's actions were nothing less than masterful?
Kitco's Senior Analist, John Nadler has been wrong on about every gold move since mid-last year. Ok, he finally hung around long enough to see gold get hit by a dollar blow off. He's now 1 for 35.
Why the huge drop in gold? Looks pretty obvious. From Patrick A. Heller, Market Update August 12, 2008 in Numismaster. com website:
"Data is starting to come out to show that there has been massive intervention by governments around the world to support the U.S. dollar and also knock down gold and other precious metals prices:
- In the past four weeks, foreign central banks have bought so many U.S. dollars that their holdings of U.S. government debt has increased by more than 2 percent. - In the week ending July 25, the central banks in the euro monetary system sold almost a million ounces of gold after a steady stream of weekly sales of less than a hundred thousand ounces per week. - There have been some spikes in gold lease rates, such as on July 30 and Aug. 1, indicating that "someone" is borrowing a significant quantity of gold in order to sell it on the physical market.
The U.S. dollar did not rise and gold did not drop because of any change in the fundamental factors that determine their long-term value. Instead, this large coordinated short-term onslaught is likely to be over soon (with this Monday's salvos perhaps being the final major blow). Once we get past this major intervention, then I expect the dollar to resume its long-term decline and for gold to soar to new record levels.
The current financial offensive to support the U.S. dollar and stock market, and knock down the prices of gold and silver, has been so effective that it has scared a number of newer gold investors into selling (and thereby putting even more downward pressure on gold prices). These "weak-hands" owners will take their time about considering gold ownership again.
On the other hand, imports of gold by India have soared in the past two weeks to their highest levels in a year. Not only is demand strong, but the prices being paid in India are also at their highest premium in years over the world gold spot price. For many years, India has been the world's largest gold consuming nation, until displaced by Vietnam early this year. In years past, a surge in gold demand from India proved to be a good indicator of a market bottom.
It may take up to three months for the price of gold to recover from the recent government intervention, but enjoy these current lower prices as a temporary bargain opportunity."
So this may be the fabulous buying opportunity for quite some time! You can bet the ones who drove the price down are probably stocking up on gold right now....
And we have Americans such as at least one idiot on this forum who is an obvious marxist who claims that true Libertarian Free Market Economists preach "propaganda".
This is more than just a little unfortunate as these are the types of scumbags who "lead" in political office, "teach" in most public schools and have become more and more of the mainstream in this country which used to be THE place to run to, away from that very type of immoral and failed economics to begin with.
There, I've gotten at least a little off my chest.
"- There have been some spikes in gold lease rates, such as on July 30 and Aug. 1, indicating that "someone" is borrowing a significant quantity of gold in order to sell it on the physical market."
Ummmmm huhhhhhhhh. There is no doubt that there is some serious boogie woogie going on in the higher lofts, just got to wait and see what settles out.
"The current financial offensive to support the U.S. dollar and stock market, and knock down the prices of gold and silver, has been so effective that it has scared a number of newer gold investors into selling (and thereby putting even more downward pressure on gold prices). These "weak-hands" owners will take their time about considering gold ownership again."
Ummmm huhhhhhhhh. Unfortunate but once you've lost your butt a couple of times playing around with metal, you will either get blood serious about it or go away forever.
Go bugs, gold is good.
Edited to add: I hope my likely more frequent posting right now doesn't irk anyone; the game is on right now and it's being played by some serious players but we can watch the score every day. This is exciting (to me anyway) and if you're holdin' all you have to do is sit back and watch the game.
Sorry, but since all the anti-gold / pro-fiat forumites have consistently stated that gold or currency market manipulation by the govt is not possible........I have to believe them. There could be no justifiable reason to do so. It's just the markets doing their free market business with gold being the most oversold since 2000-2001 and the dollar showing the most strength in 7 years while Ben "Nero" Bernanke fiddles.
So for some strange reason the end of last week demonstrated the "best" financials and politicial fundamentals seen in 7 years. Anyone buying that besides Nadler??
"since all the anti-gold / pro-fiat forumites have consistently stated that gold or currency market manipulation by the govt is not possible........I have to believe them. "
Hey, what's not to believe if you just read Murdoch/Hurst and watch CNBC, it's all good...right?
"since all the anti-gold / pro-fiat forumites have consistently stated that gold or currency market manipulation by the govt is not possible........I have to believe them. "
Hey, what's not to believe if you just read Murdoch/Hurst and watch CNBC, it's all good...right? >>
With all due respect to the pro-gold, anti-fiat forumites, why is it so far-fetched that it is simply the free markets at work? As I stated in another thread, if someone is manipulating gold they must also be manipulating silver, platinum, palladium, corn, soybeans, and many other commodities. Those guys must be really busy at night while we sleep peacefully. And where have they been the last few years while commodities were on the way up?
While it's a nice intellectual exercise to try to determine the root cause for gold's movement, it's very similar to what CNBC does every night "explaining" the reason for every move in the stock market. Speculation at best, and b.s. at worst. But I guess it gets them viewers.
And where have they been the last few years while commodities were on the way up?
They've been working their butts off in US and foreign markets around the clock. No secret that some of the bigger banks and brokerages man overseas' desks as well. Had it not been for their assistance gold and silver would have reached their March 2008 highs a year or two earlier. During the past 10 years they have been very busy selling off central bank gold to keep the markets down. The FED, PPT never sleep considering they have most of major brokerages on the "payroll."
There are no free markets, esp silver and gold which due to their "currency-like" status must be managed by TPTB to control the US dollar.
<< <i>They've been working their butts off in US and foreign markets around the clock. No secret that some of the bigger banks and brokerages man overseas' desks as well. Had it not been for their assistance gold and silver would have reached their March 2008 highs a year or two earlier. During the past 10 years they have been very busy selling off central bank gold to keep the markets down. The FED, PPT never sleep considering they have most of major brokerages on the "payroll."
There are no free markets, esp silver and gold which due to their "currency-like" status must be managed by TPTB to control the US dollar. >>
If what you're saying is true, why do you invest in gold? If there really is such a powerful, all-encompassing conspiracy, you're going to lose your shirt in the end.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
If what you're saying is true, why do you invest in gold? If there really is such a powerful, all-encompassing conspiracy, you're going to lose your shirt in the end. >>
the gold advocates say that the ammo will eventually run out or be ineffective????
an ounce of gold is worth... an ounce of gold: a Hedge against disaster. Unless someone steals it.
Some times, for some seasons a hedge against inflation, but not always (I remember RR's charts a while back). Something to be passed down generation to generation? yes. Like the Indians do it.
Nothing wrong with playing PMs as commodities, some do it really well. Probably most don't have time to play "trader joe" and stay ahead of the lemmings psychology, or, if THEY are there, the manipulators.
Buy what you can, when you can, when you like the outlay for a bit and forget about it. And hope we never really 'need' it. Then pass it along one day.
Do your best to avoid circular arguments, as it will help you reason better, because better reasoning is often a result of avoiding circular arguments.
f what you're saying is true, why do you invest in gold? If there really is such a powerful, all-encompassing conspiracy, you're going to lose your shirt in the end.
Because TPTB will fail long term to keep the dollar from weakening and the credit/derivatives house of cards will come down. Gold will survive in that environment, the US dollar will not. The article below on Financial Sense talks to a number of these same points.
The biggest lie here is that 2nd QTR GDP was stated as +1.8%. To get this figure a 1.1% deflator was used. The deflator is supposed to mimic the inflation rate. In this case comical since we're a little far from an annualized 1.1% inflation rate wouldn't you say? Even the CPI which is known to be pretty inaccurate has inflation at around 4%. If that number were applied to the GDP we'd be at -1% GDP. And if even a more accurate model was used, we'd probably be at around -2 to -7% GDP last quarter. But the +1.8% GDP was eagerly swallowed up by the sheeple as a sign that the worst is behind us.
This is what I said just a week ago and this is just the way things will be for the time being,
“We are entering a period in all markets where the speculators and the manipulators will move markets on a weekly, or even daily basis, in extreme swings. The large banks, hedge funds, insurance companies, and government players are desperate for profits and will be hunting heads in any market they feel they can make quick money.”
The small speculators just are not going to be able to play in this market for the time being with out risk of losing their shirts, but investors will be fine in the end if they buy value and hold their positions.
I also believe that at some time in the near future the PM’S must decouple from all currencies. Why should gold be tied to the movement in dollars, Euros, or any of these fiat currencies? In the end they are all inflated, and in hock to their socialist systems.
Nearly all investments are in the toilet at this time, commodities, basic materials, financials, real estate, are all down substantially in the last few weeks.
Investors have a choice now they can set on the sidelines or nibble away at what they believe will protect their capital over the next 24 months.
I also believe that at some time in the near future the PM’S must decouple from all currencies. Why should gold be tied to the movement in dollars, Euros, or any of these fiat currencies? In the end they are all inflated, and in hock to their socialist systems.
Isn't the whole point of referring to precious metals as "commodities" that they will remain coupled to fiat currencies?
If gold and silver began to be referred to as "real money" by everyone (instead of just hard money advocates), wouldn't that pose a problem for the existing political and social orders in most countries? Their paper money and the influence that it buys would no longer have clout.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
"...wouldn't that pose a problem for the existing political and social orders in most countries? Their paper money and the influence that it buys would no longer have clout."
Yes, particularly here. It makes sense that any existing government would want its constituents to use the local currency, in our case FRN's. If, however, you realize that you are in danger of losing your house, you haven't had more than a 3% raise in two years after a couple of years of 12% inflation, your gas and groceries are consuming most of your cash after housing, and your 401 has lost at least 14% this year, and they have sent you a notice about coming to pick up your car you've had for 3 years, and school starts in two weeks and the kids need new stuff, then the FRN concept is obviously not working very well for you right now. When the govt. realizes that the only thing keeping them from having a complete financial strangle hold on it's constituents is the ability of individuals to sidestep their sole dependence on FRN's then one should anticipate that something would be done about that if it gets to be a problem, ala the feds lib. dollar bust in Evansville last year.
I would expect that in addition to it being profoundly unpatriotic and selfish to retire before 70 it will be equally unpatriotic and selfish to own non-FRN assets. Hopefully, we can look forward to some articles of this nature soon to clarify how we should think about this.
I also believe that at some time in the near future the PM’S must decouple from all currencies. Why should gold be tied to the movement in dollars, Euros, or any of these fiat currencies? In the end they are all inflated, and in hock to their socialist systems
Isn't the whole point of referring to precious metals as "commodities" that they will remain coupled to fiat currencies?
But what are they besides commodities? They are raw materials for jewelry, coins, industrial uses, etc. And are they really "coupled" to currencies, or just denominated in currencies? How would you value an ounce of gold (or a ton of aluminum, cotton, etc), if not in dollars or euros?
i am curious what the gold bug mail lists, like Sinclair, are saying right now.
"hold on tight, this is just a minor correction!" and so forth... "buying opportunity at these levels" was said a few days ago... so now must be the REAL buying opportunity.
do they ever mention the word sell? heh.
sorry.. i just find this all so amusing. gold hit 1000 and about 3% of this forum sold off their PMs. it just reminds me of the past and how much time goes by things never change. there is no target discussed when to sell... just buy and hold.. and hold.. and hold... and hold...
Awwww, fc, we all know you're a bright fella with your head in the game. Buy when it is down, sell when it is high. I gotta admit you got me because I didn't sell any when it was $1000 and yes, greed got the better of me because we really didn't know where the top was. But on the brighter side, I did sell a couple of ozs three weeks ago at $978 to I guess I did miss $22 buks I coulda had. Some folk are stashing stuff for retirement on down the line a bit so it doesn't really matter what spot is for the next 5 years or so but if it runs up to a K again, I might sell some more of my $400 gold as no dobut would some other "bugs". But you gotta admit, it's fun drama when gold goes down and all the antibugs yell naanana naaaaa naaaaa and when it goes up they all ask if they should buy in at this level...well, I think it's fun anyway.
Simple formula. Buy when you have some spare money, accumulate in a steady and responsible way, each according to their own ability. When it comes time to check out...sell the stuff!
sorry.. i just find this all so amusing. gold hit 1000 and about 3% of this forum sold off their PMs. it just reminds me of the past and how much time goes by things never change. there is no target discussed when to sell... just buy and hold.. and hold.. and hold... and hold...
fc, you think you can beat the market? Be my guest - it takes alot of conviction to sell a few ounces of gold at $900 and then to buy a few ounces of silver at $13.00, and to claim clairvoyance over a few bucks.
If this were a trading game, you'd be all over it. But it's not. I left the pm market when gold was around $700 in 1980. Made a bunch of money in forward contracts on margin. Sent my wife to law school and bought a summer place outside St. Louis with some of the proceeds. In 1998, I got back in with physical bullion, both gold and silver, then platinum. I've got nice gains overall - big gains, actually. Top that. So the metals are getting hammered right now. Big whoop.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Nadler said there's really a "sea-change in attitudes" going on. Attitudes toward the dollar and oil, attitudes on the part of the consumer and about the global economy and the U.S. contagion spreading -- "they are all undergoing shifts of an order of magnitude that we have not seen for half a decade," he said. It's "no wonder that investment postures and asset reallocation are also undergoing a significant transformation."
This guy is never ( I mean NEVER!) right, he is simply a clown; this is a great BUY signal.
I think we need a bit more of a washout within the next 5-10 trading days and you better pull the trigger, boys!
Comments
<< <i>Some perspective:
1. Gold was at 675 this time last year. That's a 21% increase to today.
2. Silly to talk about a bubble bursting after one month of data but some do it anyway. >>
Trends matter in markets, just like on airplanes. If your plane loses power at 30,000 feet, it's still higher in the air than it was right after takeoff, but the trend is all wrong.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>Some perspective:
1. Gold was at 675 this time last year. That's a 21% increase to today.
2. Silly to talk about a bubble bursting after one month of data but some do it anyway. >>
Trends matter in markets, just like on airplanes. If your plane loses power at 30,000 feet, it's still higher in the air than it was right after takeoff, but the trend is all wrong.
True, but the outcome isn't necessarily a crash. If the weather's fine and you're over I-40 with no traffic in the plain states, you can weather this downturn.
Lots of "ifs" though.
Ren
Who has an opinion of why the gold markets are being driven down?
Every day it’s more bad news. Here is a sampling of today!
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Almost one-third of U.S. homeowners who bought in the last five years now owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth, according to Zillow.com, an Internet provider of home valuations.
Second-quarter home prices fell 9.9 percent from a year earlier, giving 29 percent of owners negative equity.
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for the first time in three days after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it may post more credit losses, pushing the worldwide costs for the collapse of the subprime mortgage market to more than $500 billion.
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in June as the biggest jump in exports in more than four years overwhelmed record imports of petroleum. The gap shrank 4.1 percent to $56.8 billion from $59.2 billion in May, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's military campaign in Georgia may threaten the U.S. strategic aims of preventing Iran from building a nuclear bomb and securing Central Asian energy supplies for Europe.
<< <i> have been hammered by as much as 50% since the March peak. That is some serious hammering.
roadrunner >>
Similar to the real estate market here in SW Fla. I know that we've lost 50% of value on our house since 2006.
Had a customer who purchased a pre contruction "condo" for a g-note a sq ft in "Hialeah" of all places at the top. A million bucks for that. Lots of luck!
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
It may well be that money has found a better place to be for the moment; a place that is somewhat safe and has a chance at growing a little. You gotta admit, gold doesn't seem to have much room for growth and oil is kind of played out for now. If corporations are buying hundred million dollar bundles of Alt-A and sub-prime foreclosure properties at 50 to 70 cents on the dollar, that seems like it would be a pretty tasty place to park some cash in my humble opinion. Money doesn't wait, it always goes where it can do the most good and if the banks can clear this poison off their sheets and get some cash in return, it's all the better.
Maybe it's as simple as the shorts put so much paper pressure on it that it just had to happen. Gold has been spectacular for the last couple of years so we should all be grateful for the doubling of price in such a short period of time.
About 6 weeks ago I used the term "monetary destruction". All asset classes suck wind big time.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
So silicone is a more attractive investment than gold? I just might have to look in to that...
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Carlyle Group, the world's second- largest private-equity firm, sold U.S. steelmaker John Maneely Co. to Russia's OAO Novolipetsk Steel for $3.5 billion, increasing its money sevenfold in two years.
John Maneely, which combined with Canada's Atlas Tube Inc. in December 2006, is based in Beachwood, Ohio.
clickable link
there is stuff going on with metals that i just can't comprehend, or make sense, unless there is gross manipulation. maybe some capital need to be raised and the investment was gold that was sold.....still i don't understand the big drop in value.
maybe things will make sense in a few months.. i just don't see gold ever going to $1200 in the next few years, let alone above $1500...what is left to rattle the cage and unlock the door?
edited for gross misspeellings...lol
below from today's WSJ
Dollar Dims Gold Outlook
Greenback's Rise
Has Analysts Seeing
Metal Below $800
By ALLEN SYKORA
August 13, 2008; Page C7
Gold may not be at the end of its plunge, with large speculators expected by some to dump more holdings and with the dollar threatening to continue to flex its newly strengthened muscles.
Several analysts and strategists expect the metal to fall below $800 per ounce, although other market participants envision that the liquidation may be drawing to an end and gold may instead enter a consolidation phase.
"It depends a lot on what happens to the dollar," said Gijsbert Groenewegen, managing partner of Gold Arrow Capital Management. "If the dollar further strengthens, then you will see a further decline in precious-metals prices."
He suspects the dollar will do just that, since economic weakness in Europe may keep the European Central Bank from increasing interest rates again, thereby undermining the euro.
The euro hit a record intraday high of $1.6040 July 15. The same day, currently nearby August gold hit a four-month intraday high of $989.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, while most-active December touched $999.40.
The euro has since fallen, reaching $1.4922 Tuesday. And August gold settled $13.30 lower at $808.20, while December lost $13.70 to $814.60.
Much of the recent weakness in gold has been long liquidation by those looking to raise cash, said James Moore, an analyst with TheBullionDesk.com.
"To be honest, I think we still have a little bit more downside to go," Mr. Moore said. "It wouldn't surprise me if we do trade a little below $800 -- possibly $765 to $750."
Still, he believes gold fundamentals remain constructive. He cited reduced mine output in recent years, ongoing producer dehedging, still-lofty exchange-traded-fund holdings, and potential buying on pullbacks from those who "missed the boat" on the recent run-up in commodities.
"Once we do have a period of correction and consolidation, we will start to level off and generate a more bullish mentality," Mr. Moore said.
Jon Nadler, an analyst with Kitco Bullion Dealers, said he thinks gold could return to the upper-$700 area, and possibly fall to the $730-$740 region.
"The overall trend really does not remain very friendly. It's based on the big structural shift of the dollar actually gaining traction on this rally," he said.
Mr. Nadler also cited the recent pullback in oil, with Nymex September crude falling from a July 11 intraday peak of $147.90 a barrel to a three-month intraday low Tuesday of $112.31.
"The hedge funds are evidently rotating out of the commodities sector and looking for greener pastures, basically," Mr. Nadler said.
Frank Lesh, a futures analyst with FuturePath Trading, looks for gold to enter a sideways phase for the foreseeable future.
"We've seen a lot of liquidation by the [speculative] funds," Mr. Lesh said. "But I think that is starting to run its course now. So I would expect the market to go into some consolidation down here around $800."
In particular, market participants are watching to see whether bargain hunting emerges from physical buyers, particularly the key consuming nation of India.
Ned Schmidt's reasoning on why the dollar melt up occurred.
If Schmidt is right, and he probably is, the dollar is hugely overbought at the moment, just as gold is more over-sold right now than at any other time since 2001. We'll see how Nadler's "structural shift in the dollar swings out. It could just as easily be a false "break out."
I still have no problem seeing $1200 or $1500 gold. It may not be this year for the next record price in gold but it's coming, and many more of them. The gold bull is trying to shake everyone off it can at the moment. I trust all those gold buyers who have been waiting for $810 gold since March, bought some back already.
Another forum member sent me a link to a 2003 thread that I found most amusing. There, another forum member was praising Greenspan for his "masterful" handling of the US dollar and the USE among other things. During that thread I suggested that we revisit this "masterfulness" 5 yrs later. Now that we're here, anyone else agree that Greenspan's actions were nothing less than masterful?
roadrunner
Oh Man!
He is an idiot!
"The gold bull is trying to shake everyone off it can at the moment."
voices...
"Data is starting to come out to show that there has been massive intervention by governments around the world to support the U.S. dollar and also knock down gold and other precious metals prices:
- In the past four weeks, foreign central banks have bought so many U.S. dollars that their holdings of U.S. government debt has increased by more than 2 percent.
- In the week ending July 25, the central banks in the euro monetary system sold almost a million ounces of gold after a steady stream of weekly sales of less than a hundred thousand ounces per week.
- There have been some spikes in gold lease rates, such as on July 30 and Aug. 1, indicating that "someone" is borrowing a significant quantity of gold in order to sell it on the physical market.
The U.S. dollar did not rise and gold did not drop because of any change in the fundamental factors that determine their long-term value. Instead, this large coordinated short-term onslaught is likely to be over soon (with this Monday's salvos perhaps being the final major blow). Once we get past this major intervention, then I expect the dollar to resume its long-term decline and for gold to soar to new record levels.
The current financial offensive to support the U.S. dollar and stock market, and knock down the prices of gold and silver, has been so effective that it has scared a number of newer gold investors into selling (and thereby putting even more downward pressure on gold prices). These "weak-hands" owners will take their time about considering gold ownership again.
On the other hand, imports of gold by India have soared in the past two weeks to their highest levels in a year. Not only is demand strong, but the prices being paid in India are also at their highest premium in years over the world gold spot price. For many years, India has been the world's largest gold consuming nation, until displaced by Vietnam early this year. In years past, a surge in gold demand from India proved to be a good indicator of a market bottom.
It may take up to three months for the price of gold to recover from the recent government intervention, but enjoy these current lower prices as a temporary bargain opportunity."
So this may be the fabulous buying opportunity for quite some time! You can bet the ones who drove the price down are probably stocking up on gold right now....
This is more than just a little unfortunate as these are the types of scumbags who "lead" in political office, "teach" in most public schools and have become more and more of the mainstream in this country which used to be THE place to run to, away from that very type of immoral and failed economics to begin with.
There, I've gotten at least a little off my chest.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Ummmmm huhhhhhhhh. There is no doubt that there is some serious boogie woogie going on in the higher lofts, just got to wait and see what settles out.
"The current financial offensive to support the U.S. dollar and stock market, and knock down the prices of gold and silver, has been so effective that it has scared a number of newer gold investors into selling (and thereby putting even more downward pressure on gold prices). These "weak-hands" owners will take their time about considering gold ownership again."
Ummmm huhhhhhhhh. Unfortunate but once you've lost your butt a couple of times playing around with metal, you will either get blood serious about it or go away forever.
Go bugs, gold is good.
Edited to add: I hope my likely more frequent posting right now doesn't irk anyone; the game is on right now and it's being played by some serious players but we can watch the score every day. This is exciting (to me anyway) and if you're holdin' all you have to do is sit back and watch the game.
<< <i>I have never felt better selling gold at $1,000 an ounce when Melt was $800, thanks to MS Live Search!! >>
coinboy you have any more?
i can use my wife's account (shhhhhh)
Add to this a new Cold war
Middle East Potential War
How can gold do anything less then hit new highs.
Camelot
Isn't the U.S. the largest debtor in the world?
They create debt, then sweep it under the rug I guess. Where does it go?
I created student loan debt, and I have to pay it back, right?
Or can I ignore it?
Way OT, 61 in 1961, hasn't been broken. Yes Big Mac broke it, with some help.
As he put it, "We're not here to talk about the past"
Then some guy named Baroid hit 73 HRs, using vitamin B12. ROFL x 2.
Scott
So for some strange reason the end of last week demonstrated the "best" financials and politicial fundamentals seen in 7 years. Anyone buying that besides Nadler??
roadrunner
"since all the anti-gold / pro-fiat forumites have consistently stated that gold or currency market manipulation by the govt is not possible........I have to believe them. "
Hey, what's not to believe if you just read Murdoch/Hurst and watch CNBC, it's all good...right?
Realestate is showing improvement
Inflation doing well
Retail doing good
<< <i>
"since all the anti-gold / pro-fiat forumites have consistently stated that gold or currency market manipulation by the govt is not possible........I have to believe them. "
Hey, what's not to believe if you just read Murdoch/Hurst and watch CNBC, it's all good...right? >>
With all due respect to the pro-gold, anti-fiat forumites, why is it so far-fetched that it is simply the free markets at work? As I stated in another thread, if someone is manipulating gold they must also be manipulating silver, platinum, palladium, corn, soybeans, and many other commodities. Those guys must be really busy at night while we sleep peacefully. And where have they been the last few years while commodities were on the way up?
While it's a nice intellectual exercise to try to determine the root cause for gold's movement, it's very similar to what CNBC does every night "explaining" the reason for every move in the stock market. Speculation at best, and b.s. at worst. But I guess it gets them viewers.
They've been working their butts off in US and foreign markets around the clock. No secret that some of the bigger banks and brokerages man overseas' desks as well. Had it not been for their assistance gold and silver would have reached their March 2008 highs a year or two earlier. During the past 10 years they have been very busy selling off central bank gold to keep the markets down. The FED, PPT never sleep considering they have most of major brokerages on the "payroll."
There are no free markets, esp silver and gold which due to their "currency-like" status must be managed by TPTB to control the US dollar.
roadrunner
<< <i>They've been working their butts off in US and foreign markets around the clock. No secret that some of the bigger banks and brokerages man overseas' desks as well. Had it not been for their assistance gold and silver would have reached their March 2008 highs a year or two earlier. During the past 10 years they have been very busy selling off central bank gold to keep the markets down. The FED, PPT never sleep considering they have most of major brokerages on the "payroll."
There are no free markets, esp silver and gold which due to their "currency-like" status must be managed by TPTB to control the US dollar. >>
If what you're saying is true, why do you invest in gold? If there really is such a powerful, all-encompassing conspiracy, you're going to lose your shirt in the end.
No problem, they got everything and everyone under control.
<< <i>
If what you're saying is true, why do you invest in gold? If there really is such a powerful, all-encompassing conspiracy, you're going to lose your shirt in the end. >>
the gold advocates say that the ammo will eventually run out or be ineffective????
Some times, for some seasons a hedge against inflation, but not always (I remember RR's charts a while back). Something to be passed down generation to generation? yes. Like the Indians do it.
Nothing wrong with playing PMs as commodities, some do it really well. Probably most don't have time to play "trader joe" and stay ahead of the lemmings psychology, or, if THEY are there, the manipulators.
Buy what you can, when you can, when you like the outlay for a bit and forget about it. And hope we never really 'need' it. Then pass it along one day.
Because TPTB will fail long term to keep the dollar from weakening and the credit/derivatives house of cards will come down. Gold will survive in that environment, the US dollar will not. The article below on Financial Sense talks to a number of these same points.
GDP lies - weakening dollar among other things - by Jim Willie
The biggest lie here is that 2nd QTR GDP was stated as +1.8%. To get this figure a 1.1% deflator was used. The deflator is supposed to mimic the inflation rate. In this case comical since we're a little far from an annualized 1.1% inflation rate wouldn't you say? Even the CPI which is known to be pretty inaccurate has inflation at around 4%. If that number were applied to the GDP we'd be at -1% GDP. And if even a more accurate model was used, we'd probably be at around -2 to -7% GDP last quarter. But the +1.8% GDP was eagerly swallowed up by the sheeple as a sign that the worst is behind us.
roadrunner
This is what I said just a week ago and this is just the way things will be for the time being,
“We are entering a period in all markets where the speculators and the manipulators will move markets on a weekly, or even daily basis, in extreme swings. The large banks, hedge funds, insurance companies, and government players are desperate for profits and will be hunting heads in any market they feel they can make quick money.”
The small speculators just are not going to be able to play in this market for the time being with out risk of losing their shirts, but investors will be fine in the end if they buy value and hold their positions.
I also believe that at some time in the near future the PM’S must decouple from all currencies. Why should gold be tied to the movement in dollars, Euros, or any of these fiat currencies? In the end they are all inflated, and in hock to their socialist systems.
Nearly all investments are in the toilet at this time, commodities, basic materials, financials, real estate, are all down substantially in the last few weeks.
Investors have a choice now they can set on the sidelines or nibble away at what they believe will protect their capital over the next 24 months.
Isn't the whole point of referring to precious metals as "commodities" that they will remain coupled to fiat currencies?
If gold and silver began to be referred to as "real money" by everyone (instead of just hard money advocates), wouldn't that pose a problem for the existing political and social orders in most countries? Their paper money and the influence that it buys would no longer have clout.
I knew it would happen.
Yes, particularly here. It makes sense that any existing government would want its constituents to use the local currency, in our case FRN's. If, however, you realize that you are in danger of losing your house, you haven't had more than a 3% raise in two years after a couple of years of 12% inflation, your gas and groceries are consuming most of your cash after housing, and your 401 has lost at least 14% this year, and they have sent you a notice about coming to pick up your car you've had for 3 years, and school starts in two weeks and the kids need new stuff, then the FRN concept is obviously not working very well for you right now. When the govt. realizes that the only thing keeping them from having a complete financial strangle hold on it's constituents is the ability of individuals to sidestep their sole dependence on FRN's then one should anticipate that something would be done about that if it gets to be a problem, ala the feds lib. dollar bust in Evansville last year.
I would expect that in addition to it being profoundly unpatriotic and selfish to retire before 70 it will be equally unpatriotic and selfish to own non-FRN assets. Hopefully, we can look forward to some articles of this nature soon to clarify how we should think about this.
Isn't the whole point of referring to precious metals as "commodities" that they will remain coupled to fiat currencies?
But what are they besides commodities? They are raw materials for jewelry, coins, industrial uses, etc. And are they really "coupled" to currencies, or just denominated in currencies? How would you value an ounce of gold (or a ton of aluminum, cotton, etc), if not in dollars or euros?
"hold on tight, this is just a minor correction!" and so forth...
"buying opportunity at these levels" was said a few days ago... so now
must be the REAL buying opportunity.
do they ever mention the word sell? heh.
sorry.. i just find this all so amusing. gold hit 1000 and about 3% of this
forum sold off their PMs. it just reminds me of the past and how much time
goes by things never change. there is no target discussed when to sell...
just buy and hold.. and hold.. and hold... and hold...
Simple formula. Buy when you have some spare money, accumulate in a steady and responsible way, each according to their own ability. When it comes time to check out...sell the stuff!
forum sold off their PMs. it just reminds me of the past and how much time
goes by things never change. there is no target discussed when to sell...
just buy and hold.. and hold.. and hold... and hold...
fc, you think you can beat the market? Be my guest - it takes alot of conviction to sell a few ounces of gold at $900 and then to buy a few ounces of silver at $13.00, and to claim clairvoyance over a few bucks.
If this were a trading game, you'd be all over it. But it's not. I left the pm market when gold was around $700 in 1980. Made a bunch of money in forward contracts on margin. Sent my wife to law school and bought a summer place outside St. Louis with some of the proceeds. In 1998, I got back in with physical bullion, both gold and silver, then platinum. I've got nice gains overall - big gains, actually. Top that. So the metals are getting hammered right now. Big whoop.
I knew it would happen.
This guy is never ( I mean NEVER!) right, he is simply a clown; this is a great BUY signal.
I think we need a bit more of a washout within the next 5-10 trading days and you better pull the trigger, boys!