I think this might be the biggest thread on the forums, now that the Open Forum (with some of its montrosities like the old "Moon Landing Conspiracy" and "Four Word Posts" threads) has gone.
PM bulls do not want to see gold and silver close at their current levels. Both are under their 200dma and momentum is turning sharply lower. Possible double top in gold if it breaks $850, which would imply a target of $700. Strong support at $800 would have to be taken out first.
gold seems to be moving inversley with USD index , was tracking oil (it appeared), when will it track inflation?, or will spin and PPT and paper trading keep it far from where the gold bulls think it should be??
i would think if Au is $800 late in the year, the bugs will be squashed and the bulls will have a fatal "estocada" by some "mysterious force". it seems almost absurd how this commodity fluctuates now.
When some of the true gold bugs are forced to sell by necessity or emotion, we will probably be near a floor....for at least a tradeable rally, but for now the commodity balloon has busted. The big question is: is it just a counter trend move? or did we top out and will commodities trade sideways to down from here? Time will tell.
<< <i>When some of the true gold bugs are forced to sell by necessity or emotion, we will probably be near a floor....for at least a tradeable rally, but for now the commodity balloon has busted. The big question is: is it just a counter trend move? or did we top out and will commodities trade sideways to down from here? Time will tell. >>
Gold bugs aren't forced to sell they paid cash. The paper trades playing futures are the ones forced to sell and the pattern of long/short is nothing new.
gold seems to be moving inversely with USD index , was tracking oil (it appeared), when will it track inflation?, or will spin and PPT and paper trading keep it far from where the gold bulls think it should be??
i would think if Au is $800 late in the year, the bugs will be squashed and the bulls will have a fatal "estocada" by some "mysterious force". it seems almost absurd how this commodity fluctuates now.
no panic here, ....yet
Wonder how the price of gold would be doing right now if Paulson requested that all gold miner stocks be added to the 19 financial companies exempted from naked short selling tactics? It's illegal in both cases, but since the FED and Treasury (and congress) approve of anything that lowers the price of metals, you will continue to see major naked-short selling in gold. Like I've said, TPTB will keep changing the rules to supress the metals' prices. In the end they will fail...for now they continue to gasp for air to play another day. How long before they increase the margin requirements on gold and silver further?
I would only watch the dollar and Euro to determine gold's monthly movements. Oil is now apparently under cartel control as well. Just as gold turned around rapidly in August 2007 when things seemed bleakish, so will it do the same thing in 2008.
I don't consider myself a gold bug as much as an anti-fiat currency person or just "gold aware." This is why I gravitated to coins in the early 1970's as they seemed to represent value to me. I don't sell any of my physical metals as a rule, and never during down turns. I don't buy gold stocks on margin either. Everything is pay cash as you go.
The FED/PPT is applying a lot of smoke and mirrors to hide the seriousness of the credit fiasco. It's impossible to keep hundreds of TRILLIONS of dollars in bets out of sight forever. The piper has to be paid. I give them credit for making it to the 2008 election. Making it to 2011 without catastrophic fallout will be lots harder.
Yepper, all you have to do is accumulate, hold, and wait; lather, rinse, repeat. Cash in, cash out. Buy at 400, sell at 978, life is good; gold really suks.
I again will state that I don't understand gold, have asked to have it explained in simple, logical format(not achieved yet) and an explanation of the variety of opinions on gold(not achieved yet).
The last 2 weeks, I have attempted to keep up with opinions/explanations/in-depth analysis/chart evaluations and (again) projections, when gold started 'falling'.
I went back(the third time) and read the Thread over the weekend.
I am right back where I started. The similarity to weather forecasts is the best way I can describe my understanding-confusing, constantly justified with professorial quality explanations when what is supposed to happen or is predicted doesn't and a pause now and then for commercial break-"gold will be right back".
I don't state any of these thoughts with animosity. In fact, I am in awe of the knowledge posted in the Thread.
I have come to the conclusion that I am a lost cause in the understanding of gold. I assume this is good for those that do understand, because it leaves a little more to be claimed by you, but, forgive me, it seems to be a mentally tiresome exercise to think about the subject in-depth and very frustrating for those us that "don't get it".
I will not completely quit trying, but it would be helpful to those of us(of which I suspect are legion) if a simpler, gentler language, in lieu of insider terminology, is used now and then, in a nod to assist those of us that are not as well-versed, but are at least trying to learn.
With Respect, John Curlis
PS: I really got lost at "...200dma and momentum...". I wasn't expecting a low blow.
Charlie, please don't get frustrated. There are different ways to ply the trade of being a bug. Some use very definitive charts and graphs such as cohodk, some use extreemly technical wave theories, some just have a feel for where it's at and where it should be but they get there by reading and looking and paying attention to what's happening. I'll offer some insight from my perspective though realize I'm just one small voice and there are many of us/them out here and just about everyone has a different way to play.
Being a planner by degree, I look at trends and events and basic patterns of behavior and then predict or propose responses and that's my bias. Some here are econ majors and some are mba's and there are others such as insurance people, bankers, stock wizards...there are many ways to study and prognosticate; I study and watch and plan. But, I study everything...when cohodk puts up a chart, I study; maybe I don't understand the whole thing but I get some of it, when RR makes some interesting insights I read, when GS, earlygold, post something (the list of skilled posters is long), I read, when people post info, I read it and if I think it's reasonable, I keep the information. If the poster is a bozo (we get some every now and then), then I'm sure we all get a little grin. No doubt, you will find something that works for you but the common demoniator of every bug is that they pay attention and study and read and they have a plan. Some people like to read and study race cars or Ikes, we study gold. One of the nice things about this site and this thread is that this is one of the few places you can openly discuss gold; you really can't have these discussions with office mates or family members because they are not that in tune with the metal nor the motivations for having the metal.
Firstly, you have to believe. You have to believe that right now the dollar is relatively weak against other currencies, you have to believe that the cost of getting gold out of the ground and refined and assayed is more than the price of gold in the spot market. You have to believe that inflation is eating away at your retirement savings (those that you are fortunate enough to not have it all in the stock market right now). You have to believe that gold has real value that is constant across the international market place and is redeemable anywhere in the world for the local currency, no questions asked; you can take it to Mexico, Canada, Malaysa, Norway...and it's gold and it is easily convertible to cash. You have to believe that gold will hold a value in depressions, inflation, in deflation, in periods of good and periods of bad...the so called gold standard. You have to believe that there are forces that would like to keep gold cheap relative to currencies, particularly FRN's (Federal Reserve Notes) as there are forces that want gold to rise. Paper long people want gold to rise, paper short people want gold to fall and both forces are very active in the market place but they are just paper people, not Physical Metal holders. Then you have miners, bugs, junior miners, governments, commodity brokers, and a whole other group of people that have their own angle. Reading about them all is a fun venture. But mostly, you have to believe that an oz of gold will buy in 2009, what it bought in 1909 and it will buy the same quantity and quality of goods in 2109. You have to believe that gold is the great equalizer and that it will outlast governments, uprisings, chaos, war, all the frailties of the human condition.
So, whether gold is 900/oz or 500/oz is relative. What will that oz of gold buy, right now, in today's market. Whethere it is 978 or 850 really isn't important. Now if you're speculating and playing with gold, you more than likely will lose you complete ass a time or two but you might make a little too. The only way to work gold to your favor, in my opinion is to simply accumulate at near spot. Accumulate when you have the free funds or when you want to rathole a few buks away for a rainy day. Certainly don't take a large position thinking that you will unload it in a few weeks for big profits because the only thing you are likely going to get unloaded is your butt. The best places to accumulate is your local coin shop or apmex or places like that because you pay a little over spot, you get good stuff, and you likely can sell back to them should the need arise, once you have a relationship or an account. Meet a few dealers, develop some relationships, get some ground level information, it's a good thing. For example, in the 3-4 years that I have been accumulating, I began buying at about 400/oz and back then buying a mint product at 450 seemed outrageous. Then I bought a fair load of buffs at 600 and wondered if I would ever break even and I've even bought some at 850 and 950 and wonder if those will ever be profitable and the answer to all those questions is that it is profitable because inflation is rising, production costs are rising, the dollar is buying less, and because of a thousand other different things. It may well fall to 750 before it gets back on it's feet but not to worry, you have to believe. And it is not that you believe that things are going to get worse so gold will rise (so called doomsayers), you have to believe in the fundamentals such as the need for PM in the market place and what it takes to get it there and what it's value may be when it is there.
So the study and reading and planning is really just for self gratification. I just accumulate and every now and then I let a little go back. I recently let some '06 stuff go back; just a couple of ozs but it was good. I hit it at 978, right on the very top before it started the slide back down. It's not that I could pick the top or that I was even trying, but I knew it was about to go down significantly because other things were indicating that there was not so much pressure in physical metal. So, if it goes up or down, it's just special effects, it's going to go up and down in the short term but it rises in the long term. There are many forces that affect the price of gold and bugs like to use gold as a kind of economic barometer and most of our discussions here are about things that might cause a rise of fall in that barometer so enjoy the reading.
Short list of rules: Don't spend money you don't have for gold. Don't try and time the market in a speculative way; buy the dips, sell the highs (if you must sell). Do accumulate and hold be it a 1/10 or 10 oz, it all adds up. Do predict, plan, read, believe, study, pay attention, act on your thoughts.
If there is any lingo or acronmys or jargon that you don't understand, just ask. If there is something you want to know, just ask. I certainly don't know all about it but between the people here, we can figure out most anything we would want to predict. Good luck and go easy and enjoy, it's always fun when you win.
For my fellow bugs, please don't take my post as arrogant, this is just my take on things and I'm offering that to Charlie and who ever might be interested. It is great to learn and read and enjoy the gems from fellow posters here, I'm just one voice in the wind. Good Luck to all!
Gold and silver near their Jan 1, 2008 values. Those that do not think there is too much of an increase in commodities recently, and that it is pure speculation, are in for a rude awakening. Those that buy there measly 10 ounces of gold once in a while, are not the market movers. Hedge fund managers/speculators with the large futures contracts make the up and down moves. Hold on to the PM's for the long haul, but ask yourself:
Isnt the fall of the dollar only a small part of it??? Is oil actually worth twice as much from a year ago, yet the demand is still about the same during the same period???
Charley - There is not much to understand. Gold, like Citigroup, oil, or General Motors, is a speculative investment for those willing to take on high-risk. Understand you willmake money, lose money or neither...
I am right back where I started. The similarity to weather forecasts is the best way I can describe my understanding-confusing, constantly justified with professorial quality explanations when what is supposed to happen or is predicted doesn't and a pause now and then for commercial break-"gold will be right back".
Don't feel bad. With the heavy manipulation by the FED and PPT, they have been able to make the dollar or gold react just the opposite way one would logically expect. Bear Stearns fails due to a pile of $14 TRILLION in bad derivatives and needs to be bought out for $32 BILLION.....and there are 40X that amount in other toxic derivatives out there....hence gold falls...huh? Gold can be understood long term (quarterly or annually) but I would agree that trying to follow it daily, weekly, or monthly is best left to the professional traders and commercials (and the PPT....lol) who force it to move when they want. Hammerman said it best: $400 to $978, what's not to like? Lather...rinse...repeat...at $1000, $1200, $1500, etc. Anyone but a trader following gold on a daily basis will probably be bucked off the bull never to return. Those day traders who just purchased gold on margin at $920-$940 are probably gone for good.
I always like reading Cliff Droke's comments on stocks and gold. He's been calling for a stock market rebirth for months, and often times his contrarian calls in the face of pessimism are proved to be spot on. Even David Nichols of the fractal gold report is waving the caution flag on gold in the event it drops out of its consolidation triangle as platinum recently did. Such a tumble could knock gold back to $700.
These were helpful replies, in that simple language was used to convey the basic underlying premise of gold, good or bad. The suggestion that what it bought in 1909 is the same in 2009 and the same quality or quantity in 2109 is a very easy concept. This is my interpretation: It is not money, per say, but an underlying( Grade Beam/Foundation) support to establish the (strength) value of the( building) goods or services over time, whether it is widgets, milk, storm doors, cars, plants, etc., as (wind load) basic economic changes occur. Close? Thank You, John Curlis
Henry Paulson has lost control By F William Engdahl
When Henry Paulson agreed to leave his Wall Street job as chairman of investment bank Goldman Sachs to go to Washington as Treasury secretary in 2006, he demanded extraordinary powers as de facto economic czar. He got them.
Paulson is also head of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets - composed of the secretary of the Treasury and the chairmen of the Federal Reserve Board, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The working group is the financial world's equivalent of the Pentagon war room. Paulson, not Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, is the person running the administration's crisis management. And his recent actions indicate he has lost control as the snowballing problems from the semi-government mortgage companies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to the collapse of the Henry Paulson has lost control---ATIMES
Hundreds of banks will fail, Roubini tells Barron's NEW YORK, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The United States is in the second inning of a recession that will last for at least 18 months and help kill off hundreds of banks, influential economist and New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini told Barron's in Sunday's edition.
Taxpayers will pay a big price for helping bail out the rest of the financial services industry as well, Roubini said -- at least $1 trillion and more likely $2 trillion. Hundreds of banks will fail, Roubini tells Barron's
1909 Clerical worker earned $1179/year or about $100 a month or $25 a week or $5 a day; same as a factory worker working for Mr. Ford. Gold was worth about $20.67.oz.
Don't feel bad. With the heavy manipulation by the FED and PPT, they have been able to make the dollar or gold react just the opposite way one would logically expect. Bear Stearns fails due to a pile of $14 TRILLION in bad derivatives and needs to be bought out for $32 BILLION.....and there are 40X that amount in other toxic derivatives out there....hence gold falls...huh?
"You don't need a weatherman - to know which way the wind blows........"
Bob Dylan
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
one of my contrary views with Sincliar is he thinks the euro will go to 2x USD index and the dollar index will drop to .52 (or somewhere in that area) in 2011
with contractions in the european markets the spin is that the worst is over "here" and just starting "there"..i don't see how the dollar can decline with that perception and therefore gold go to 1200 by end of this year
personally i've paid cash for all my silver and gold bullion, all in physical, all in my grubby hands or the SDB.
time for coffee and some oatmeal....here on the left coast
time for coffee and some oatmeal....here on the left coast >>
If its for your heart etc, try pomergranate juice. Supposed to be good! I've been drinking it every night for about a year now. I'm also on the left coast...........................the left coast of Fla
1909 Clerical worker earned $1179/year or about $100 a month or $25 a week or $5 a day; same as a factory worker working for Mr. Ford. Gold was worth about $20.67.oz.
The average Chinese worker doesnt make much more than that now. Same can probably be said for 50% of the world population. There is absolutely no comparison to the average US lifestyle to the average world lifestyle.
"The average Chinese worker doesnt make much more than that now. Same can probably be said for 50% of the world population. There is absolutely no comparison to the average US lifestyle to the average world lifestyle."
Shhhh, don't tell the workers or they are really going to be angry.
<< <i> I went back(the third time) and read the Thread over the weekend.
I am right back where I started. The similarity to weather forecasts is the best way I can describe my understanding-confusing, constantly justified with professorial quality explanations when what is supposed to happen or is predicted doesn't and a pause now and then for commercial break-"gold will be right back". >>
Weather forecasting is very difficult. Everytime a butterfly flaps its wings in China the long range forecast has to be updated and all the models rerun. If one day we get so these wing flaps can be factored in then it will add mere hours to the validity of the forecasts because the brownian movement of wa- ter in the butterflys' eyes will still lead to wincing on occassion.
So always take your forecasts with a grain of salt.
Human activity can be far easier to predict in the short term or the long. It does depend on the nature of the specific activity in question and whether it is affected by chaotic events to a large extent in the near term.
Most of the movement in gold is caused by macroeconomics and sentiment. There are always unforeseeable and confounding events which can occur but this is not the case here. This is simply a response to a bear market rally in the dollar and an oversold stock market. Trends are always playing out and waves lie atop one another sometimes strenghtening the effect and sometimes diminishing it. It's not the trends that will mess you up when forecasting; it's their effect. A wave will reflect off the shore but people have a habit of chang- ing things because of trends. New laws might be passed or a trend might be wholly unsustainable. If everyone started losing weight there would be a point at which the trend had to reverse. When you look around and see everyone is skin and bones then it's that time.
Some people will use fancy computer models and crunch numbers to attempt to predict the future. It's far easier to just look for skinny people. This will free up your time to think about fundamentals that can and will change.
All prediction is predicated on watching current trends and prophets are always wrong in the final analysis. The future is never predictable but many trends nor- mally change very gradually and chaotic forces are foreseeable. Other trends can reverse overnight on a whim and have dramatic effects even on the certain.
Yeah, how's that goin' for ya? "...profoundly selfish and unpatriotic." Yeah, Mr. Yarrow, you got it rite...I've been working since I was 14, served two enlistments in the US Army '68-'74, how about you? Tell you what...I'll retire and suck up my long overdue benefits, and you KEEP WORKING and paying for them, Mr. Think Tank Big Dog; harrrrrrrrrr...but certainly your CPA can keep working those tax exemptions so you should be able to dodge most of it; not to worry.
Maybe I read this wrong but it sounds like I should keep working so those that won't work have adequate benefits? Maybe there's a couple of programs that folk want funded and no one wants to hoist the "Raise Taxes" flag. Maybe I got it wrong but do you really think anyone is going to buy into that or did you just have to get a paper out and managed to get it into the media somehow. This is the second time I have seen the same article albeit a few months between publishings.
<< <i> I went back(the third time) and read the Thread over the weekend.
I am right back where I started. The similarity to weather forecasts is the best way I can describe my understanding-confusing, constantly justified with professorial quality explanations when what is supposed to happen or is predicted doesn't and a pause now and then for commercial break-"gold will be right back". >>
Weather forecasting is very difficult. Everytime a butterfly flaps its wings in China the long range forecast has to be updated and all the models rerun. If one day we get so these wing flaps can be factored in then it will add mere hours to the validity of the forecasts because the brownian movement of wa- ter in the butterflys' eyes will still lead to wincing on occassion.
So always take your forecasts with a grain of salt.
Human activity can be far easier to predict in the short term or the long. It does depend on the nature of the specific activity in question and whether it is affected by chaotic events to a large extent in the near term.
Most of the movement in gold is caused by macroeconomics and sentiment. There are always unforeseeable and confounding events which can occur but this is not the case here. This is simply a response to a bear market rally in the dollar and an oversold stock market. Trends are always playing out and waves lie atop one another sometimes strenghtening the effect and sometimes diminishing it. It's not the trends that will mess you up when forecasting; it's their effect. A wave will reflect off the shore but people have a habit of chang- ing things because of trends. New laws might be passed or a trend might be wholly unsustainable. If everyone started losing weight there would be a point at which the trend had to reverse. When you look around and see everyone is skin and bones then it's that time.
Some people will use fancy computer models and crunch numbers to attempt to predict the future. It's far easier to just look for skinny people. This will free up your time to think about fundamentals that can and will change.
All prediction is predicated on watching current trends and prophets are always wrong in the final analysis. The future is never predictable but many trends nor- mally change very gradually and chaotic forces are foreseeable. Other trends can reverse overnight on a whim and have dramatic effects even on the certain. >>
I ignore all the chicken littles and only pay attention to you
Gold, like Citigroup, oil, or General Motors, is a speculative investment for those willing to take on high-risk. Understand you willmake money, lose money or neither...
All investments are speculative. But gold is not insolvent like GM and Citigroup.......or close to bankruptcy. I think I'll stick with the gold, even with the "high risk" of it not being able to go bankrupt.
On early retirement: It's an act Yarrow calls "profoundly selfish and unpatriotic."
So what does this dufus think of what the FED, Treasury, SEC, bankers and brokerages have done to the financial system over the past 10 years? Can't get much more unpatriotic than treason...nor more selfish than Hank's old firm Goldman Sachs, who after creating nasty mortgage derivatives and making billions in profits and bonuses, were shorting those same vehicles left and right in 2007 only to profit a 2nd time as they failed on cue.
But Yarrow will get his wish as untold numbers of baby booners will be forced to delay retirements into their 70's and even 80's as their cost of living rises and their 401K's implode.
To intentionally drive a Nation into bankruptcy by illegally selling real estate to those who could not afford to buy real estate and keep on doing it knowing what the out come would do, has committed TREASON! Those banking Regulators should have notified the Federal Regulators ...who should have notified their superiors! It is a long chain of events...But who will have the BALL's to REVEAL who gave the command! This is TREASON at it's best! It will make WATER GATE look like a walk in the park!
There will be alot of mishaps before the truth be told! Risky, you bet ya!
How do you justify error, by creating more errors! Makes people believe the lie! When it is to late and people realize, the damage has been done, mission accomplished!
Lots of fodder was given to create the error!
I just wonder if American History will tell the truth! Japan lied to their younger generations for years.
I wonder if America will still view them as the UNTOUCHABLES! The Constitution doesn't!
To intentionally drive a Nation into bankruptcy by illegally selling real estate to those who could not afford to buy real estate and keep on doing it knowing what the out come would do, has committed TREASON! Those banking Regulators should have notified the Federal Regulators ...who should have notified their superiors! It is a long chain of events...But who will have the BALL's to REVEAL who gave the command! This is TREASON at it's best!
The US Constitution is, in my opinion, the very best set of rules to run a society/country.
Too bad we have deviated so much from the historic document.
Even sadder still, is how many Americans no nothing of this Treason.
"Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
“Maybe I read this wrong but it sounds like I should keep working so those that won't work have adequate benefits?”
MH, You did not misunderstand what the pinko’s want you to do!
“To intentionally drive a Nation into bankruptcy by illegally selling real estate to those who could not afford to buy real estate and keep on doing it knowing what the out come would do, has committed TREASON!”
dlimb2,
This program is not much different than most other socialist programs. Socialism demands that everyone be treated equal, even if they cannot afford it. The congress demanded that the lenders make these loans, but no one will throw the bums out.
I guess it is worse to cheat on your wife than to bankrupt a nation on purpose! No there will be fall guys on this! The ones who are responsible will walk, but I hope not unblemished! All men created equal is not the case intended...the case intended was to bring all the middle class down to meet the poor and then and only then are they created equal! To control a broke and bankrupt society is to have them broke and dependent upon the government and then their constitutional rights voided! How do you get rid of the largest group of people in History who will be drawing upon social security...You think it will be safe to use Medicare once you retire!
I have been watching the medicare issue for a few years now...they have moved the age group down now to meet the babyboomers! Start watching the Obituaries and the ages.
To intentionally drive a Nation into bankruptcy by illegally selling real estate to those who could not afford to buy real estate and keep on doing it knowing what the out come would do, has committed TREASON[/]
I wanted to respond but I think the statement speaks for itself.
Comments
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
-Paul
8,001.
But...your coin uno thread is more fun!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
gold seems to be moving inversley with USD index , was tracking oil (it appeared), when will it track inflation?, or will spin and PPT and paper trading keep it far from where the gold bulls think it should be??
i would think if Au is $800 late in the year, the bugs will be squashed and the bulls will have a fatal "estocada" by some "mysterious force". it seems almost absurd how this commodity fluctuates now.
no panic here, ....yet
<< <i>When some of the true gold bugs are forced to sell by necessity or emotion, we will probably be near a floor....for at least a tradeable rally, but for now the commodity balloon has busted. The big question is: is it just a counter trend move? or did we top out and will commodities trade sideways to down from here? Time will tell. >>
Gold bugs aren't forced to sell they paid cash. The paper trades playing futures are the ones forced to sell and the pattern of long/short is nothing new.
i would think if Au is $800 late in the year, the bugs will be squashed and the bulls will have a fatal "estocada" by some "mysterious force". it seems almost absurd how this commodity fluctuates now.
no panic here, ....yet
Wonder how the price of gold would be doing right now if Paulson requested that all gold miner stocks be added to the 19 financial companies exempted from naked short selling tactics? It's illegal in both cases, but since the FED and Treasury (and congress) approve of anything that lowers the price of metals, you will continue to see major naked-short selling in gold. Like I've said, TPTB will keep changing the rules to supress the metals' prices. In the end they will fail...for now they continue to gasp for air to play another day. How long before they increase the margin requirements on gold and silver further?
I would only watch the dollar and Euro to determine gold's monthly movements. Oil is now apparently under cartel control as well. Just as gold turned around rapidly in August 2007 when things seemed bleakish, so will it do the same thing in 2008.
I don't consider myself a gold bug as much as an anti-fiat currency person or just "gold aware." This is why I gravitated to coins in the early 1970's as they seemed to represent value to me. I don't sell any of my physical metals as a rule, and never during down turns. I don't buy gold stocks on margin either. Everything is pay cash as you go.
The FED/PPT is applying a lot of smoke and mirrors to hide the seriousness of the credit fiasco. It's impossible to keep hundreds of TRILLIONS of dollars in bets out of sight forever. The piper has to be paid. I give them credit for making it to the 2008 election. Making it to 2011 without catastrophic fallout will be lots harder.
roadrunner
Yepper, all you have to do is accumulate, hold, and wait; lather, rinse, repeat. Cash in, cash out. Buy at 400, sell at 978, life is good; gold really suks.
The last 2 weeks, I have attempted to keep up with opinions/explanations/in-depth analysis/chart evaluations and (again) projections, when gold started 'falling'.
I went back(the third time) and read the Thread over the weekend.
I am right back where I started. The similarity to weather forecasts is the best way I can describe my understanding-confusing, constantly justified with professorial quality explanations when what is supposed to happen or is predicted doesn't and a pause now and then for commercial break-"gold will be right back".
I don't state any of these thoughts with animosity. In fact, I am in awe of the knowledge posted in the Thread.
I have come to the conclusion that I am a lost cause in the understanding of gold. I assume this is good for those that do understand, because it leaves a little more to be claimed by you, but, forgive me, it seems to be a mentally tiresome exercise to think about the subject in-depth and very frustrating for those us that "don't get it".
I will not completely quit trying, but it would be helpful to those of us(of which I suspect are legion) if a simpler, gentler language, in lieu of insider terminology, is used now and then, in a nod to assist those of us that are not as well-versed, but are at least trying to learn.
With Respect, John Curlis
PS: I really got lost at "...200dma and momentum...". I wasn't expecting a low blow.
I'm in for the long haul, 35 years till retirement.
How is the dollar gaining, a dollar doesn't buy shat.
Is is safe to say, that no one with any clarity, can predict the future of PMs?
One day it's this, the next it's that, go gold!
Scott
Respectfully, John Curlis
Lots of people predict the movement of assets on a daily basis. Some are actually quite good.
Some alluded to the breakdown of commodities, and the countries whose economies are based on them, about a month ago.
Some have been warning of a global slowdown about a year now.
Some have been saying that the greatest risk of trading the dollar right now was to the upside, rather than downside.
Some have been saying that currencies trade relative to each other, and warned to look overseas.
But then again, you must define "future". Next week, month, year, decade? Weeks or months are easy. Beyond that is left to chance.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Being a planner by degree, I look at trends and events and basic patterns of behavior and then predict or propose responses and that's my bias. Some here are econ majors and some are mba's and there are others such as insurance people, bankers, stock wizards...there are many ways to study and prognosticate; I study and watch and plan. But, I study everything...when cohodk puts up a chart, I study; maybe I don't understand the whole thing but I get some of it, when RR makes some interesting insights I read, when GS, earlygold, post something (the list of skilled posters is long), I read, when people post info, I read it and if I think it's reasonable, I keep the information. If the poster is a bozo (we get some every now and then), then I'm sure we all get a little grin. No doubt, you will find something that works for you but the common demoniator of every bug is that they pay attention and study and read and they have a plan. Some people like to read and study race cars or Ikes, we study gold. One of the nice things about this site and this thread is that this is one of the few places you can openly discuss gold; you really can't have these discussions with office mates or family members because they are not that in tune with the metal nor the motivations for having the metal.
Firstly, you have to believe. You have to believe that right now the dollar is relatively weak against other currencies, you have to believe that the cost of getting gold out of the ground and refined and assayed is more than the price of gold in the spot market. You have to believe that inflation is eating away at your retirement savings (those that you are fortunate enough to not have it all in the stock market right now). You have to believe that gold has real value that is constant across the international market place and is redeemable anywhere in the world for the local currency, no questions asked; you can take it to Mexico, Canada, Malaysa, Norway...and it's gold and it is easily convertible to cash. You have to believe that gold will hold a value in depressions, inflation, in deflation, in periods of good and periods of bad...the so called gold standard. You have to believe that there are forces that would like to keep gold cheap relative to currencies, particularly FRN's (Federal Reserve Notes) as there are forces that want gold to rise. Paper long people want gold to rise, paper short people want gold to fall and both forces are very active in the market place but they are just paper people, not Physical Metal holders. Then you have miners, bugs, junior miners, governments, commodity brokers, and a whole other group of people that have their own angle. Reading about them all is a fun venture. But mostly, you have to believe that an oz of gold will buy in 2009, what it bought in 1909 and it will buy the same quantity and quality of goods in 2109. You have to believe that gold is the great equalizer and that it will outlast governments, uprisings, chaos, war, all the frailties of the human condition.
So, whether gold is 900/oz or 500/oz is relative. What will that oz of gold buy, right now, in today's market. Whethere it is 978 or 850 really isn't important. Now if you're speculating and playing with gold, you more than likely will lose you complete ass a time or two but you might make a little too. The only way to work gold to your favor, in my opinion is to simply accumulate at near spot. Accumulate when you have the free funds or when you want to rathole a few buks away for a rainy day. Certainly don't take a large position thinking that you will unload it in a few weeks for big profits because the only thing you are likely going to get unloaded is your butt. The best places to accumulate is your local coin shop or apmex or places like that because you pay a little over spot, you get good stuff, and you likely can sell back to them should the need arise, once you have a relationship or an account. Meet a few dealers, develop some relationships, get some ground level information, it's a good thing. For example, in the 3-4 years that I have been accumulating, I began buying at about 400/oz and back then buying a mint product at 450 seemed outrageous. Then I bought a fair load of buffs at 600 and wondered if I would ever break even and I've even bought some at 850 and 950 and wonder if those will ever be profitable and the answer to all those questions is that it is profitable because inflation is rising, production costs are rising, the dollar is buying less, and because of a thousand other different things. It may well fall to 750 before it gets back on it's feet but not to worry, you have to believe. And it is not that you believe that things are going to get worse so gold will rise (so called doomsayers), you have to believe in the fundamentals such as the need for PM in the market place and what it takes to get it there and what it's value may be when it is there.
So the study and reading and planning is really just for self gratification. I just accumulate and every now and then I let a little go back. I recently let some '06 stuff go back; just a couple of ozs but it was good. I hit it at 978, right on the very top before it started the slide back down. It's not that I could pick the top or that I was even trying, but I knew it was about to go down significantly because other things were indicating that there was not so much pressure in physical metal. So, if it goes up or down, it's just special effects, it's going to go up and down in the short term but it rises in the long term. There are many forces that affect the price of gold and bugs like to use gold as a kind of economic barometer and most of our discussions here are about things that might cause a rise of fall in that barometer so enjoy the reading.
Short list of rules:
Don't spend money you don't have for gold.
Don't try and time the market in a speculative way; buy the dips, sell the highs (if you must sell).
Do accumulate and hold be it a 1/10 or 10 oz, it all adds up.
Do predict, plan, read, believe, study, pay attention, act on your thoughts.
If there is any lingo or acronmys or jargon that you don't understand, just ask. If there is something you want to know, just ask. I certainly don't know all about it but between the people here, we can figure out most anything we would want to predict. Good luck and go easy and enjoy, it's always fun when you win.
For my fellow bugs, please don't take my post as arrogant, this is just my take on things and I'm offering that to Charlie and who ever might be interested. It is great to learn and read and enjoy the gems from fellow posters here, I'm just one voice in the wind. Good Luck to all!
Isnt the fall of the dollar only a small part of it??? Is oil actually worth twice as much from a year ago, yet the demand is still about the same during the same period???
Charley - There is not much to understand. Gold, like Citigroup, oil, or General Motors, is a speculative investment for those willing to take on high-risk. Understand you willmake money, lose money or neither...
Don't feel bad. With the heavy manipulation by the FED and PPT, they have been able to make the dollar or gold react just the opposite way one would logically expect. Bear Stearns fails due to a pile of $14 TRILLION in bad derivatives and needs to be bought out for $32 BILLION.....and there are 40X that amount in other toxic derivatives out there....hence gold falls...huh? Gold can be understood long term (quarterly or annually) but I would agree that trying to follow it daily, weekly, or monthly is best left to the professional traders and commercials (and the PPT....lol) who force it to move when they want. Hammerman said it best: $400 to $978, what's not to like? Lather...rinse...repeat...at $1000, $1200, $1500, etc. Anyone but a trader following gold on a daily basis will probably be bucked off the bull never to return. Those day traders who just purchased gold on margin at $920-$940 are probably gone for good.
Cliff Droke calling for new bull market in S&P by 4th quarter
I always like reading Cliff Droke's comments on stocks and gold. He's been calling for a stock market rebirth for months, and often times his contrarian calls in the face of pessimism are proved to be spot on. Even David Nichols of the fractal gold report is waving the caution flag on gold in the event it drops out of its consolidation triangle as platinum recently did. Such a tumble could knock gold back to $700.
roadrunner
By F William Engdahl
When Henry Paulson agreed to leave his Wall Street job as chairman of investment bank Goldman Sachs to go to Washington as Treasury secretary in 2006, he demanded extraordinary powers as de facto economic czar. He got them.
Paulson is also head of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets - composed of the secretary of the Treasury and the chairmen of the Federal Reserve Board, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The working group is the financial world's equivalent of the Pentagon war room. Paulson, not Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, is the person running the administration's crisis management. And his recent actions indicate he has lost control as the snowballing problems from the semi-government mortgage companies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to the collapse of the
Henry Paulson has lost control---ATIMES
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
NEW YORK, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The United States is in the second inning of a recession that will last for at least 18 months and help kill off hundreds of banks, influential economist and New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini told Barron's in Sunday's edition.
Taxpayers will pay a big price for helping bail out the rest of the financial services industry as well, Roubini said -- at least $1 trillion and more likely $2 trillion.
Hundreds of banks will fail, Roubini tells Barron's
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
1909 Clerical worker earned $1179/year or about $100 a month or $25 a week or $5 a day; same as a factory worker working for Mr. Ford. Gold was worth about $20.67.oz.
Historic price of gold Nice article...(chart is near bottom of article)
"You don't need a weatherman - to know which way the wind blows........"
Bob Dylan
I knew it would happen.
with contractions in the european markets the spin is that the worst is over "here" and just starting "there"..i don't see how the dollar can decline with that perception and therefore gold go to 1200 by end of this year
personally i've paid cash for all my silver and gold bullion, all in physical, all in my grubby hands or the SDB.
time for coffee and some oatmeal....here on the left coast
<< <i>
time for coffee and some oatmeal....here on the left coast >>
If its for your heart etc, try pomergranate juice. Supposed to be good! I've been drinking it every night for about a year now. I'm also on the left coast...........................the left coast of Fla
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>Historic US Wages (look at the dat column
1909 Clerical worker earned $1179/year or about $100 a month or $25 a week or $5 a day; same as a factory worker working for Mr. Ford. Gold was worth about $20.67.oz.
Historic price of gold Nice article...(chart is near bottom of article) >>
The average Chinese worker doesnt make much more than that now. Same can probably be said for 50% of the world population. There is absolutely no comparison to the average US lifestyle to the average world lifestyle.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Shhhh, don't tell the workers or they are really going to be angry.
<< <i>
I went back(the third time) and read the Thread over the weekend.
I am right back where I started. The similarity to weather forecasts is the best way I can describe my understanding-confusing, constantly justified with professorial quality explanations when what is supposed to happen or is predicted doesn't and a pause now and then for commercial break-"gold will be right back".
>>
Weather forecasting is very difficult. Everytime a butterfly flaps its wings in
China the long range forecast has to be updated and all the models rerun.
If one day we get so these wing flaps can be factored in then it will add mere
hours to the validity of the forecasts because the brownian movement of wa-
ter in the butterflys' eyes will still lead to wincing on occassion.
So always take your forecasts with a grain of salt.
Human activity can be far easier to predict in the short term or the long. It
does depend on the nature of the specific activity in question and whether it
is affected by chaotic events to a large extent in the near term.
Most of the movement in gold is caused by macroeconomics and sentiment.
There are always unforeseeable and confounding events which can occur but
this is not the case here. This is simply a response to a bear market rally in
the dollar and an oversold stock market. Trends are always playing out and
waves lie atop one another sometimes strenghtening the effect and sometimes
diminishing it. It's not the trends that will mess you up when forecasting; it's
their effect. A wave will reflect off the shore but people have a habit of chang-
ing things because of trends. New laws might be passed or a trend might be
wholly unsustainable. If everyone started losing weight there would be a point
at which the trend had to reverse. When you look around and see everyone
is skin and bones then it's that time.
Some people will use fancy computer models and crunch numbers to attempt
to predict the future. It's far easier to just look for skinny people. This will free
up your time to think about fundamentals that can and will change.
All prediction is predicated on watching current trends and prophets are always
wrong in the final analysis. The future is never predictable but many trends nor-
mally change very gradually and chaotic forces are foreseeable. Other trends
can reverse overnight on a whim and have dramatic effects even on the certain.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"...profoundly selfish and unpatriotic." Yeah, Mr. Yarrow, you got it rite...I've been working since I was 14, served two enlistments in the US Army '68-'74, how about you? Tell you what...I'll retire and suck up my long overdue benefits, and you KEEP WORKING and paying for them, Mr. Think Tank Big Dog; harrrrrrrrrr...but certainly your CPA can keep working those tax exemptions so you should be able to dodge most of it; not to worry.
Damn, he's back!
Maybe I read this wrong but it sounds like I should keep working so those that won't work have adequate benefits? Maybe there's a couple of programs that folk want funded and no one wants to hoist the "Raise Taxes" flag. Maybe I got it wrong but do you really think anyone is going to buy into that or did you just have to get a paper out and managed to get it into the media somehow. This is the second time I have seen the same article albeit a few months between publishings.
<< <i>
<< <i>
I went back(the third time) and read the Thread over the weekend.
I am right back where I started. The similarity to weather forecasts is the best way I can describe my understanding-confusing, constantly justified with professorial quality explanations when what is supposed to happen or is predicted doesn't and a pause now and then for commercial break-"gold will be right back".
>>
Weather forecasting is very difficult. Everytime a butterfly flaps its wings in
China the long range forecast has to be updated and all the models rerun.
If one day we get so these wing flaps can be factored in then it will add mere
hours to the validity of the forecasts because the brownian movement of wa-
ter in the butterflys' eyes will still lead to wincing on occassion.
So always take your forecasts with a grain of salt.
Human activity can be far easier to predict in the short term or the long. It
does depend on the nature of the specific activity in question and whether it
is affected by chaotic events to a large extent in the near term.
Most of the movement in gold is caused by macroeconomics and sentiment.
There are always unforeseeable and confounding events which can occur but
this is not the case here. This is simply a response to a bear market rally in
the dollar and an oversold stock market. Trends are always playing out and
waves lie atop one another sometimes strenghtening the effect and sometimes
diminishing it. It's not the trends that will mess you up when forecasting; it's
their effect. A wave will reflect off the shore but people have a habit of chang-
ing things because of trends. New laws might be passed or a trend might be
wholly unsustainable. If everyone started losing weight there would be a point
at which the trend had to reverse. When you look around and see everyone
is skin and bones then it's that time.
Some people will use fancy computer models and crunch numbers to attempt
to predict the future. It's far easier to just look for skinny people. This will free
up your time to think about fundamentals that can and will change.
All prediction is predicated on watching current trends and prophets are always
wrong in the final analysis. The future is never predictable but many trends nor-
mally change very gradually and chaotic forces are foreseeable. Other trends
can reverse overnight on a whim and have dramatic effects even on the certain. >>
I ignore all the chicken littles and only pay attention to you
and no, this was not a paid endorsment
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
All investments are speculative. But gold is not insolvent like GM and Citigroup.......or close to bankruptcy. I think I'll stick with the gold, even with the "high risk" of it not being able to go bankrupt.
On early retirement: It's an act Yarrow calls "profoundly selfish and unpatriotic."
So what does this dufus think of what the FED, Treasury, SEC, bankers and brokerages have done to the financial system over the past 10 years? Can't get much more unpatriotic than treason...nor more selfish than Hank's old firm Goldman Sachs, who after creating nasty mortgage derivatives and making billions in profits and bonuses, were shorting those same vehicles left and right in 2007 only to profit a 2nd time as they failed on cue.
But Yarrow will get his wish as untold numbers of baby booners will be forced to delay retirements into their 70's and even 80's as their cost of living rises and their 401K's implode.
roadrunner
It will make WATER GATE look like a walk in the park!
There will be alot of mishaps before the truth be told! Risky, you bet ya!
I hope Leavenworth has room!
Lots of fodder was given to create the error!
I just wonder if American History will tell the truth! Japan lied to their younger generations for years.
I wonder if America will still view them as the UNTOUCHABLES! The Constitution doesn't!
The US Constitution is, in my opinion, the very best set of rules to run a society/country.
Too bad we have deviated so much from the historic document.
Even sadder still, is how many Americans no nothing of this Treason.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
MH,
You did not misunderstand what the pinko’s want you to do!
“To intentionally drive a Nation into bankruptcy by illegally selling real estate to those who could not afford to buy real estate and keep on doing it knowing what the out come would do, has committed TREASON!”
dlimb2,
This program is not much different than most other socialist programs. Socialism demands that everyone be treated equal, even if they cannot afford it. The congress demanded that the lenders make these loans, but no one will throw the bums out.
of certainty, that the Market will continue to fluctuate.
Camelot
'2 US aircraft carriers headed for Gulf'
I have been watching the medicare issue for a few years now...they have moved the age group down now to meet the babyboomers! Start watching the Obituaries and the ages.
I wanted to respond but I think the statement speaks for itself.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I thought that was what "Bird Flu" was going to be for??!!
You don't think Insurance Comapnies control the care you get...THINK AGAIN!
Hospitals are BIG BUSINESS! They like profits.