@Cougar1978 said:
Yes these people bidding stuff up will lose money. When they go to sell they will implode. Their best bet buy at a show off the bourse. What 95 pct collectors lose money?
What a rocket ride. Started in 2020 just as people were locked down with Covid and getting bored sitting around and needing something to do. So they dug out their old Whitmans and pouch of buffalos and Indians, and caught the fever. Confession: I am one of them.
This chart would suggest that if you are buying key dates and rarities, there won’t be much of a correction to count on…5-10% maybe. And good luck finding great coins when prices theoretically fall.
The only auction I’ve done well on lately was a series of Swiss medals from an auction house in Estonia. A month later they’re still with the postal authorities in Estonia. Jury is still out whether I actually won or not.
A market collapse is the only cure for the current foolishness. Collectors like me don’t stop buying because of market collapses. So what you say is true. The trouble is it’s harder to find good material during the correction.
.
Current market prices are not necessarily "foolish".
Just because a person is outbid on something doesn't necessarily mean that the other bidders are foolish.
A 1799 cent is not really a promotable item. There aren't enough of them around to justify the cost of a promotion.
A successful promotion requires a quantity of similar items.
@Boosibri said:
This chart would suggest that if you are buying key dates and rarities, there won’t be much of a correction to count on…5-10% maybe. And good luck finding great coins when prices theoretically fall.
How did you arrive at “..there won’t be much of a correction to count on…5-10% maybe.”? The chart makes it look like there were a few years between 2017 and 2020, where most of that time, prices were lower by approximately 15% to16% from 2008 levels. And there were much larger drops after the highs of 1980 and 1989. Sure, there were subsequent recoveries, but in each of those two cases, it took nearly 10 years to get back to those highs.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I sold a $5 Liberty gold piece to Bill around 20 years ago at a Florida show in MS63, I doubt he remembers. These have stayed stagnant for the duration. There are many gold coins, especially the semi-numismatics, that have not gone up, or have not gone up much.
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
I will hazard that most 75 y/o's with a few mil in the bank didn't get there by making a habit of frivolous impulse purchases. It goes against type. Just sayin'.
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
I will hazard that most 75 y/o's with a few mil in the bank didn't get there by making a habit of frivolous impulse purchases. It goes against type. Just sayin'.
As someone who spends all day trying to convince clients who are 75 y/o with a few mil in the bank to spend more money, can confirm. I'm trying to convince them they can afford $10k for business class tickets to New Zealand and they just can't do it. Their retirement plans are all at scores of 100, they are as financially bulletproof as possible, and they are incapable of spending the money for something "frivolous".
My theory is they were raised and strongly influenced by parents who lived through the depression.
@logger7 said:
I sold a $5 Liberty gold piece to Bill around 20 years ago at a Florida show in MS63, I doubt he remembers. These have stayed stagnant for the duration. There are many gold coins, especially the semi-numismatics, that have not gone up, or have not gone up much.
But if that "MS63" is equivalent to a current MS64 or MS 65 (due to "gradeflation") then there could be an actual gain in value on such a coin.
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
I will hazard that most 75 y/o's with a few mil in the bank didn't get there by making a habit of frivolous impulse purchases. It goes against type. Just sayin'.
As someone who spends all day trying to convince clients who are 75 y/o with a few mil in the bank to spend more money, can confirm. I'm trying to convince them they can afford $10k for business class tickets to New Zealand and they just can't do it. Their retirement plans are all at scores of 100, they are as financially bulletproof as possible, and they are incapable of spending the money for something "frivolous".
My theory is they were raised and strongly influenced by parents who lived through the depression.
And are you able to convince any of them that collecting coins isn't frivolous?
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
I will hazard that most 75 y/o's with a few mil in the bank didn't get there by making a habit of frivolous impulse purchases. It goes against type. Just sayin'.
As someone who spends all day trying to convince clients who are 75 y/o with a few mil in the bank to spend more money, can confirm. I'm trying to convince them they can afford $10k for business class tickets to New Zealand and they just can't do it. Their retirement plans are all at scores of 100, they are as financially bulletproof as possible, and they are incapable of spending the money for something "frivolous".
My theory is they were raised and strongly influenced by parents who lived through the depression.
And are you able to convince any of them that collecting coins isn't frivolous?
I've got a few stackers as clients but no serious collectors.
My theory is they were raised and strongly influenced by parents who lived through the depression.
78 here. Agree. I was taught to respect money. If I hadn’t started collecting as a child, I doubt I would have committed much in the way of resources to collectibles. As it is, <5%.
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
I will hazard that most 75 y/o's with a few mil in the bank didn't get there by making a habit of frivolous impulse purchases. It goes against type. Just sayin'.
As someone who spends all day trying to convince clients who are 75 y/o with a few mil in the bank to spend more money, can confirm. I'm trying to convince them they can afford $10k for business class tickets to New Zealand and they just can't do it. Their retirement plans are all at scores of 100, they are as financially bulletproof as possible, and they are incapable of spending the money for something "frivolous".
My theory is they were raised and strongly influenced by parents who lived through the depression.
And are you able to convince any of them that collecting coins isn't frivolous?
Excellent question.
My father hated streaming. He couldn't stand the idea of renting and not owning. Even then, he could barely bring himself to buy.
Dad loved music and Italian film. He spent most of his retirement burning CDs and DVDs with pirated content. We threw out thousands of illegal copies. Some of them were horrible grainy copies that were distracting to me to look at. But he saved money!!!
Oh, and when we were emptying the house, I discovered that the TV stand was a 3- legged chest that my mother had a a child. He had propped up the broken 4th leg rather than buy a Walmart stand. Apparently, that's how you get a 7 figure estate. Lol
It all comes down to opportunity and your own budget. If you are a type, key date, or collector of common coins with great eye appeal, you can most likely lay off an auction in which the prices are getting too high because another will pop up one day. Maybe the following week.
But if you seek rare, esoteric items that seldom appear on the market you may only get one shot. And some of us consider the premium paid as a sort of "finder's fee," a numismatic ransom paid to free the specimen from strong hands.
Pay the vig, or watch it fall back into the void of obscurity.
I see a token which I've been scouring the earth for a decade. I price it as $100, but Stacks live bidding takes it to $300. Foolish territory for most, but I will turn into Superfly TNT...I'm the Guns of the Navarone! 😆
I'm not waiting 10 or 20 years for a bargain.
Like @Boosibri said, it depends on what stage of life you're in and what you can live with.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
I believe that auctions are stronger now than in the past because of the gradual increase in internet participation over a period of several decades. By the time Covid hit in 2020, auctions had become well accepted and Covid only supercharged this trend.
With that said, I'm still finding good buys at auction. Not so much in the more popular collecting areas and most popular companies but there's still bargains out there to be found. I've been doing this for 50+ years and am surprised that there is still a steady stream of fresh material coming out of the woodwork. Census figures on National bank notes confirm this fact. You just have to know what and where to look. The opportunities will not be a 1799 cent in a Heritage auction. That will always bring at least "market price", sometimes more.
Collector and dealer in obsolete currency. Always buying all obsolete bank notes and scrip.
@DCW said:
I see a token which I've been scouring the earth for a decade. I price it as $100, but Stacks live bidding takes it to $300. Foolish territory for most, but I will turn into Superfly TNT...I'm the Guns of the Navarone! 😆
I'm not waiting 10 or 20 years for a bargain.
Exactly! I just paid 25% OVER PCGS Price Guide for a coin with a 20-something population for the circulated grade I wanted it in. I could have bought MS for the same money, but that's not what I'm after. Call me weird, but MS coins don't really do a thing for me. Lol!
@BillJones said:
What gets me about a lot of the people who are driving these prices is that most of them won't buy the same item for less money if it were offered to them at a bourse. They seem to think like lemmings. If everyone is going over the hill, then it's okay for them to follow.
Yeah, makes you wonder what's really going on or if "auction brain" just gets a hold of people. It seems like the last month or two I've had a hard time buying much on GC, it seems more competitive overall, but I picked up nice rarity last month from Stacks for right around guide price which really surprised me.
But if you seek rare, esoteric items that seldom appear on the market you may only get one shot. And some of us consider the premium paid as a sort of "finder's fee," a numismatic ransom paid to free the specimen from strong hands.
Pay the vig, or watch it fall back into the void of obscurity.
Last year, Heritage had a National Bank Note in their FUN auction that was making its first public appearance since 1972. The owner who had purchased it in that sale over 50 year ago had died and his heirs consigned it to Heritage. I arranged for phone bidding with Heritage and told my phone rep "Don't stop bidding till we get it". I got it.
My observations as of the last 1-2 years is that auctions have become very competitive for quality material. A PQ coin at guide price direct from a dealer has been my Go-To lately. I collect original CAC early gold (if that matters for context). The guides have recently inflated but I think the auction prices have been exceeding them on certain series.
I fully expect to overpay for once a generation coins at auction. Over time, I have done well with Coins I paid “too much” for.
My research suggests that top tier original coins have always done very well over time. Collectors chasing those coins seem to be resilient to a down economy. The issues I’ve seen are when top pop coins become pop 2 and beyond from gradeflation. I’ve been collecting for 15 years and have had to regrade some of my coins 1-2 times to keep up, sadly. But that’s a separate conversation.
My advice would be to pay up for that once a decade or once a generation coin. You’ll be happy you did.
Collector of Original Early Gold with beginnings in Proof Morgan collecting.
I wasn’t collecting in the eighties but I have seen a few down markets in the last 20 years. Boosibri makes one of the most important points in this thread: when prices drop, the strong hands holding the quality stuff tighten even further.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
@MrEureka said:
Speaking of the blazing hot market of 1979-80, take a look through the prices realized for the March 1980 Garrett sale, just about the absolute peak of the market. If you had a crystal ball, or maybe just some extraordinarily good judgment, there were some great long term values to be had.
Don’t forget the 1989 market top!
That was a much more narrow market top for selective TPG slabbed coins.
I finally admitted to my wife after 44 years why our 1980 gold wedding bands were so delicate and thin. I could not afford a thicker gold wedding band as I had to buy the gold wedding bands in March 1980 in advance of our May 1980 wedding. She did not realize that. I was 26 1/2 years old then and she was 25 years old.
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
LOL. They are already buying much more expensive cars than I do.
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
LOL. They are already buying much more expensive cars than I do.
Well. would you rather have a Mercedes SL or an expensive coin? Or do you already have both?
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
LOL. They are already buying much more expensive cars than I do.
Well. would you rather have a Mercedes SL or an expensive coin? Or do you already have both?
I can't speak for the car, @oreville always struck me as mid-level Lexus type of guy. But the coins....
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
LOL. They are already buying much more expensive cars than I do.
Well. would you rather have a Mercedes SL or an expensive coin? Or do you already have both?
I can't speak for the car, @oreville always struck me as mid-level Lexus type of guy. But the coins....
Yeah assuming @oreville still has that Jack Lee 1921 walker, I wouldn’t trade that for any Lexus.
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
LOL. They are already buying much more expensive cars than I do.
Well. would you rather have a Mercedes SL or an expensive coin? Or do you already have both?
.
I'm not really a Mercedes-Benz type of person, but this 2006 SL65 AMG was a great deal (bought used) given the performance (large twin-turbo V12 and a retractable hard top):
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
LOL. They are already buying much more expensive cars than I do.
Well. would you rather have a Mercedes SL or an expensive coin? Or do you already have both?
I can't speak for the car, @oreville always struck me as mid-level Lexus type of guy. But the coins....
Yeah assuming @oreville still has that Jack Lee 1921 walker, I wouldn’t trade that for any Lexus.
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
LOL. They are already buying much more expensive cars than I do.
Well. would you rather have a Mercedes SL or an expensive coin? Or do you already have both?
I can't speak for the car, @oreville always struck me as mid-level Lexus type of guy. But the coins....
Actually, I am into really cheap cars as cars are just transportation to me as I want nothing in the way of touching my coin budget. The last two cars I bought were the 2019 Hyundai Elantra SE as new followed by a new 2023 Hyundai Elantra blue hybrid. Among the Most trouble free cars I ever owned. Previously a 1995 Toyota Camry LE which I would still have except my wife cracked it up. Not even a minor issue with them plus fantastic gas mileage. The very long term warranty included with the purchase was a bonus. Peace of mind.
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
I will hazard that most 75 y/o's with a few mil in the bank didn't get there by making a habit of frivolous impulse purchases. It goes against type. Just sayin'.
As someone who spends all day trying to convince clients who are 75 y/o with a few mil in the bank to spend more money, can confirm. I'm trying to convince them they can afford $10k for business class tickets to New Zealand and they just can't do it. Their retirement plans are all at scores of 100, they are as financially bulletproof as possible, and they are incapable of spending the money for something "frivolous".
My theory is they were raised and strongly influenced by parents who lived through the depression.
And are you able to convince any of them that collecting coins isn't frivolous?
Exactly. But I do not think buying coins is frivolous . At least they do not depreciate like cars do. I admit I have trouble buying business class tickets to NZ for 14 hours of comfort which I can easily afford as my Dad and maternal grandparents never did.
I was taught to scrimp and save as a kong time CPA. Too late at 70 to change gears. Very very value driven. Yet I go for the best quality coins i can afford which is an extension of my quest for value.
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
I will hazard that most 75 y/o's with a few mil in the bank didn't get there by making a habit of frivolous impulse purchases. It goes against type. Just sayin'.
As someone who spends all day trying to convince clients who are 75 y/o with a few mil in the bank to spend more money, can confirm. I'm trying to convince them they can afford $10k for business class tickets to New Zealand and they just can't do it. Their retirement plans are all at scores of 100, they are as financially bulletproof as possible, and they are incapable of spending the money for something "frivolous".
My theory is they were raised and strongly influenced by parents who lived through the depression.
And are you able to convince any of them that collecting coins isn't frivolous?
..
I was taught to scrimp and save as a kong time CPA. Too late at 70 to change gears. Very very value driven. Yet I go for the best quality coins i can afford which is an extension of my quest for value.
I’ve always been intimidated by Kong time CPA’s😮, though I must say, you look great for your age!😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
I will hazard that most 75 y/o's with a few mil in the bank didn't get there by making a habit of frivolous impulse purchases. It goes against type. Just sayin'.
As someone who spends all day trying to convince clients who are 75 y/o with a few mil in the bank to spend more money, can confirm. I'm trying to convince them they can afford $10k for business class tickets to New Zealand and they just can't do it. Their retirement plans are all at scores of 100, they are as financially bulletproof as possible, and they are incapable of spending the money for something "frivolous".
My theory is they were raised and strongly influenced by parents who lived through the depression.
And are you able to convince any of them that collecting coins isn't frivolous?
..
I was taught to scrimp and save as a kong time CPA. Too late at 70 to change gears. Very very value driven. Yet I go for the best quality coins i can afford which is an extension of my quest for value.
I’ve always been intimidated by Kong time CPA’s😮, though I must say, you look great for your age!😉
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
I will hazard that most 75 y/o's with a few mil in the bank didn't get there by making a habit of frivolous impulse purchases. It goes against type. Just sayin'.
As someone who spends all day trying to convince clients who are 75 y/o with a few mil in the bank to spend more money, can confirm. I'm trying to convince them they can afford $10k for business class tickets to New Zealand and they just can't do it. Their retirement plans are all at scores of 100, they are as financially bulletproof as possible, and they are incapable of spending the money for something "frivolous".
My theory is they were raised and strongly influenced by parents who lived through the depression.
And are you able to convince any of them that collecting coins isn't frivolous?
..
I was taught to scrimp and save as a kong time CPA. Too late at 70 to change gears. Very very value driven. Yet I go for the best quality coins i can afford which is an extension of my quest for value.
I’ve always been intimidated by Kong time CPA’s😮, though I must say, you look great for your age!😉
LOL. Meant long time not kong time. 😂
I strongly suspected that.😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@MrEureka said:
For the right coins, I’d rather be the one setting records than the one constantly getting outbid. The trick is finding the right coins - easier said than done - and never settling for anything less.
I've evolved over the decades to follow this approach. Maybe it's because I've seen so many great coins that I don't want to own anything that's not unusually rare and also pretty, usually with a known provenance. I sense there's some greater wisdom in your comment, and it would be interesting if you could elaborate a bit on your point.
I have never been a fan of die states. They result in big collectors, who should be expanding their horizons, buying up more and more examples of the same variety, therefore making it harder and more expensive other collectors, especially potential newcomers, to get involved.
When you are collecting 19th century material, the number of collectable pieces is far lower than it is more many modern issues. An R-1 can represent over 2000 survivors. That is nothing when it comes to modern material. On the other hand, if a collector has to have five or more examples of the same variety because of die states, the number of available pieces goes down. If it's a better variety, like one with an R-4 rarity rating, with 200 or less pieces available, it doesn't take long to tie up a significant population of the survivors.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
@BillJones said:
I have never been a fan of die states. They result in big collectors, who should be expanding their horizons, buying up more and more examples of the same variety, therefore making it harder and more expensive other collectors, especially potential newcomers, to get involved.
When you are collecting 19th century material, the number of collectable pieces is far lower than it is more many modern issues. An R-1 can represent over 2000 survivors. That is nothing when it comes to modern material. On the other hand, if a collector has to have five or more examples of the same variety because of die states, the number of available pieces goes down. If it's a better variety, like one with an R-4 rarity rating, with 200 or less pieces available, it doesn't take long to tie up a significant population of the survivors.
I look at it differently, as usual. I think die states can be super cool and interesting, I like that some people enjoy them enough to collect them, and it doesn’t worry me that sometimes those specialists compete with less specialized collectors. And FWIW, I’ve added a few dramatic die states to my collection, but I’m not going for completion on that front. To each his own.
One of only two known from this terminal die state. Sorry, I like it.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@BillJones said:
I have never been a fan of die states. They result in big collectors, who should be expanding their horizons, buying up more and more examples of the same variety, therefore making it harder and more expensive other collectors, especially potential newcomers, to get involved.
When you are collecting 19th century material, the number of collectable pieces is far lower than it is more many modern issues. An R-1 can represent over 2000 survivors. That is nothing when it comes to modern material. On the other hand, if a collector has to have five or more examples of the same variety because of die states, the number of available pieces goes down. If it's a better variety, like one with an R-4 rarity rating, with 200 or less pieces available, it doesn't take long to tie up a significant population of the survivors.
I look at it differently, as usual. I think die states can be super cool and interesting, I like that some people enjoy them enough to collect them, and it doesn’t worry me that sometimes those specialists compete with less specialized collectors. And FWIW, I’ve added a few dramatic die states to my collection, but I’m not going for completion on that front. To each his own.
One of only two known from this terminal die state. Sorry, I like it.
Nice early die state overdate, the only redeeming quality to this horrible $25 coin.
An apparently discovered, undescribed late die state. Note the large die break on the eagle's right wing. Die states can be cool and interesting.
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
LOL. They are already buying much more expensive cars than I do.
Well. would you rather have a Mercedes SL or an expensive coin? Or do you already have both?
I can't speak for the car, @oreville always struck me as mid-level Lexus type of guy. But the coins....
Yeah assuming @oreville still has that Jack Lee 1921 walker, I wouldn’t trade that for any Lexus.
@Boosibri said:
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
LOL. They are already buying much more expensive cars than I do.
Well. would you rather have a Mercedes SL or an expensive coin? Or do you already have both?
I can't speak for the car, @oreville always struck me as mid-level Lexus type of guy. But the coins....
Yeah assuming @oreville still has that Jack Lee 1921 walker, I wouldn’t trade that for any Lexus.
@BillJones said:
What gets me about a lot of the people who are driving these prices is that most of them won't buy the same item for less money if it were offered to them at a bourse. They seem to think like lemmings. If everyone is going over the hill, then it's okay for them to follow.
Sounds like a classic shill bidder situation to me. Some things never go out of style in the coin market, unfortunately.
Comments
105.4% of statistics are made up on the spot.
What a rocket ride. Started in 2020 just as people were locked down with Covid and getting bored sitting around and needing something to do. So they dug out their old Whitmans and pouch of buffalos and Indians, and caught the fever. Confession: I am one of them.
This chart would suggest that if you are buying key dates and rarities, there won’t be much of a correction to count on…5-10% maybe. And good luck finding great coins when prices theoretically fall.
Latin American Collection
The only auction I’ve done well on lately was a series of Swiss medals from an auction house in Estonia. A month later they’re still with the postal authorities in Estonia. Jury is still out whether I actually won or not.
.
Current market prices are not necessarily "foolish".
Just because a person is outbid on something doesn't necessarily mean that the other bidders are foolish.
A 1799 cent is not really a promotable item. There aren't enough of them around to justify the cost of a promotion.
A successful promotion requires a quantity of similar items.
.
How did you arrive at “..there won’t be much of a correction to count on…5-10% maybe.”? The chart makes it look like there were a few years between 2017 and 2020, where most of that time, prices were lower by approximately 15% to16% from 2008 levels. And there were much larger drops after the highs of 1980 and 1989. Sure, there were subsequent recoveries, but in each of those two cases, it took nearly 10 years to get back to those highs.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I sold a $5 Liberty gold piece to Bill around 20 years ago at a Florida show in MS63, I doubt he remembers. These have stayed stagnant for the duration. There are many gold coins, especially the semi-numismatics, that have not gone up, or have not gone up much.
I will hazard that most 75 y/o's with a few mil in the bank didn't get there by making a habit of frivolous impulse purchases. It goes against type. Just sayin'.
As someone who spends all day trying to convince clients who are 75 y/o with a few mil in the bank to spend more money, can confirm. I'm trying to convince them they can afford $10k for business class tickets to New Zealand and they just can't do it. Their retirement plans are all at scores of 100, they are as financially bulletproof as possible, and they are incapable of spending the money for something "frivolous".
My theory is they were raised and strongly influenced by parents who lived through the depression.
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
But if that "MS63" is equivalent to a current MS64 or MS 65 (due to "gradeflation") then there could be an actual gain in value on such a coin.
And are you able to convince any of them that collecting coins isn't frivolous?
I've got a few stackers as clients but no serious collectors.
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
78 here. Agree. I was taught to respect money. If I hadn’t started collecting as a child, I doubt I would have committed much in the way of resources to collectibles. As it is, <5%.
Excellent question.
My father hated streaming. He couldn't stand the idea of renting and not owning. Even then, he could barely bring himself to buy.
Dad loved music and Italian film. He spent most of his retirement burning CDs and DVDs with pirated content. We threw out thousands of illegal copies. Some of them were horrible grainy copies that were distracting to me to look at. But he saved money!!!
Oh, and when we were emptying the house, I discovered that the TV stand was a 3- legged chest that my mother had a a child. He had propped up the broken 4th leg rather than buy a Walmart stand. Apparently, that's how you get a 7 figure estate. Lol
If I can’t buy right I just don’t buy them.
It all comes down to opportunity and your own budget. If you are a type, key date, or collector of common coins with great eye appeal, you can most likely lay off an auction in which the prices are getting too high because another will pop up one day. Maybe the following week.
But if you seek rare, esoteric items that seldom appear on the market you may only get one shot. And some of us consider the premium paid as a sort of "finder's fee," a numismatic ransom paid to free the specimen from strong hands.
Pay the vig, or watch it fall back into the void of obscurity.
I see a token which I've been scouring the earth for a decade. I price it as $100, but Stacks live bidding takes it to $300. Foolish territory for most, but I will turn into Superfly TNT...I'm the Guns of the Navarone! 😆
I'm not waiting 10 or 20 years for a bargain.
Like @Boosibri said, it depends on what stage of life you're in and what you can live with.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
I believe that auctions are stronger now than in the past because of the gradual increase in internet participation over a period of several decades. By the time Covid hit in 2020, auctions had become well accepted and Covid only supercharged this trend.
With that said, I'm still finding good buys at auction. Not so much in the more popular collecting areas and most popular companies but there's still bargains out there to be found. I've been doing this for 50+ years and am surprised that there is still a steady stream of fresh material coming out of the woodwork. Census figures on National bank notes confirm this fact. You just have to know what and where to look. The opportunities will not be a 1799 cent in a Heritage auction. That will always bring at least "market price", sometimes more.
Exactly! I just paid 25% OVER PCGS Price Guide for a coin with a 20-something population for the circulated grade I wanted it in. I could have bought MS for the same money, but that's not what I'm after. Call me weird, but MS coins don't really do a thing for me. Lol!
My Carson City Morgan Registry Set
Yeah, makes you wonder what's really going on or if "auction brain" just gets a hold of people. It seems like the last month or two I've had a hard time buying much on GC, it seems more competitive overall, but I picked up nice rarity last month from Stacks for right around guide price which really surprised me.
But if you seek rare, esoteric items that seldom appear on the market you may only get one shot. And some of us consider the premium paid as a sort of "finder's fee," a numismatic ransom paid to free the specimen from strong hands.
Pay the vig, or watch it fall back into the void of obscurity.
Last year, Heritage had a National Bank Note in their FUN auction that was making its first public appearance since 1972. The owner who had purchased it in that sale over 50 year ago had died and his heirs consigned it to Heritage. I arranged for phone bidding with Heritage and told my phone rep "Don't stop bidding till we get it". I got it.
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
My observations as of the last 1-2 years is that auctions have become very competitive for quality material. A PQ coin at guide price direct from a dealer has been my Go-To lately. I collect original CAC early gold (if that matters for context). The guides have recently inflated but I think the auction prices have been exceeding them on certain series.
I fully expect to overpay for once a generation coins at auction. Over time, I have done well with Coins I paid “too much” for.
My research suggests that top tier original coins have always done very well over time. Collectors chasing those coins seem to be resilient to a down economy. The issues I’ve seen are when top pop coins become pop 2 and beyond from gradeflation. I’ve been collecting for 15 years and have had to regrade some of my coins 1-2 times to keep up, sadly. But that’s a separate conversation.
My advice would be to pay up for that once a decade or once a generation coin. You’ll be happy you did.
I wasn’t collecting in the eighties but I have seen a few down markets in the last 20 years. Boosibri makes one of the most important points in this thread: when prices drop, the strong hands holding the quality stuff tighten even further.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
That was a much more narrow market top for selective TPG slabbed coins.
I finally admitted to my wife after 44 years why our 1980 gold wedding bands were so delicate and thin. I could not afford a thicker gold wedding band as I had to buy the gold wedding bands in March 1980 in advance of our May 1980 wedding. She did not realize that. I was 26 1/2 years old then and she was 25 years old.
LOL. They are already buying much more expensive cars than I do.
Well. would you rather have a Mercedes SL or an expensive coin? Or do you already have both?
I can't speak for the car, @oreville always struck me as mid-level Lexus type of guy. But the coins....
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
Yeah assuming @oreville still has that Jack Lee 1921 walker, I wouldn’t trade that for any Lexus.
.
I'm not really a Mercedes-Benz type of person, but this 2006 SL65 AMG was a great deal (bought used) given the performance (large twin-turbo V12 and a retractable hard top):
And I have a few coin(s) too:
Yes of course! Holding tight!
Actually, I am into really cheap cars as cars are just transportation to me as I want nothing in the way of touching my coin budget. The last two cars I bought were the 2019 Hyundai Elantra SE as new followed by a new 2023 Hyundai Elantra blue hybrid. Among the Most trouble free cars I ever owned. Previously a 1995 Toyota Camry LE which I would still have except my wife cracked it up. Not even a minor issue with them plus fantastic gas mileage. The very long term warranty included with the purchase was a bonus. Peace of mind.
Exactly. But I do not think buying coins is frivolous . At least they do not depreciate like cars do. I admit I have trouble buying business class tickets to NZ for 14 hours of comfort which I can easily afford as my Dad and maternal grandparents never did.
I was taught to scrimp and save as a kong time CPA. Too late at 70 to change gears. Very very value driven. Yet I go for the best quality coins i can afford which is an extension of my quest for value.
I was taught to scrimp and save as a kong time CPA. Too late at 70 to change gears. Very very value driven. Yet I go for the best quality coins i can afford which is an extension of my quest for value.
I’ve always been intimidated by Kong time CPA’s😮, though I must say, you look great for your age!😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
LOL. Meant long time not kong time. 😂
I strongly suspected that.😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I'm on my phone and cant take a good screenshot but this makes little sense to me...
https://www.ebay.com/itm/387139173449
Is this a rare die variety? What am I missing? Looks to be a cleaned '52 to me???
Edited to add: do people collect by "cuds"? Just curious... I know some collectors collect clipped planchets...
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
Check this out:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/283580834335
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
OK... so N-20 is an R4 coin if you're collecting by Newcomb variety. I guess that explains it?
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
I've evolved over the decades to follow this approach. Maybe it's because I've seen so many great coins that I don't want to own anything that's not unusually rare and also pretty, usually with a known provenance. I sense there's some greater wisdom in your comment, and it would be interesting if you could elaborate a bit on your point.
Not entirely. Read the full description of the coin. It’s a rare and dramatic terminal die state of a scarce variety.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I have never been a fan of die states. They result in big collectors, who should be expanding their horizons, buying up more and more examples of the same variety, therefore making it harder and more expensive other collectors, especially potential newcomers, to get involved.
When you are collecting 19th century material, the number of collectable pieces is far lower than it is more many modern issues. An R-1 can represent over 2000 survivors. That is nothing when it comes to modern material. On the other hand, if a collector has to have five or more examples of the same variety because of die states, the number of available pieces goes down. If it's a better variety, like one with an R-4 rarity rating, with 200 or less pieces available, it doesn't take long to tie up a significant population of the survivors.
I look at it differently, as usual. I think die states can be super cool and interesting, I like that some people enjoy them enough to collect them, and it doesn’t worry me that sometimes those specialists compete with less specialized collectors. And FWIW, I’ve added a few dramatic die states to my collection, but I’m not going for completion on that front. To each his own.
One of only two known from this terminal die state. Sorry, I like it.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Nice early die state overdate, the only redeeming quality to this horrible $25 coin.
An apparently discovered, undescribed late die state. Note the large die break on the eagle's right wing. Die states can be cool and interesting.
Nice coins but it is the modern junk!
Prefer the classic Antony coins! LOL.
I had to see for myself. Amazing coin!
looks like a CACG 58+ to me.
Kidding, kidding
Latin American Collection
Crack it out and let’s see. 😈
My photo taking is P-01.
@oreville You’re smart to hold tight. It’s likely the finest 1921P on the planet.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
And a really tough date!
“The thrill of the hunt never gets old”
PCGS Registry: Screaming Eagles
Copperindian
Retired sets: Soaring Eagles
Copperindian
Sounds like a classic shill bidder situation to me. Some things never go out of style in the coin market, unfortunately.