Crazy Auction Results
BillJones
Posts: 33,986 ✭✭✭✭✭
My main trouble is that I can't buy anything. It's like 1979 all over again. Prices are through the roof, and auctions are crazy.
I have tried to buy a 1793 Chain Ameri. cent and a 1799 cent. Both are rarities, and you can expect to pay a lot.
The 1793 Chain Cent that interested me had major problems from the mint. It has serious planchet laminations, especially on the reverse. A couple of people told me not to bid it, but I did because the preservation was excellent. I bid it up to a record level for the grade, but didn't get it.
The 1799 was a PCGS Fine-12. The previous high price that had been paid in a Heritage Auction had been $17,000 or so, including the buyers' fee. I bid $22,000 ($26,400 with the BP) and came in second, as usual. To paraphrase the late Rodney Dangerfield, "You don't get no respect when you come in second at an auction." You money means nothing. I've love to buy coins via private treaty, but there is nothing to buy.
I've gone back to my foxhole as I did in 1979. Back then I formed a set of Two Cent Pieces in EF. Today, I continue to work on my imperial Roman and British collections. The prices for those have gone up, but it's not crazy. As for U.S., I'd like to form a raw Mint State short set of Walking Liberty Half Dollars (1941-7) to complete my raw coin World War II collections. I am also revisiting a raw set of Indian cents, which I did back in the 1960s.
When the hobby loses its collective mind, you just have to draw back.
Comments
The S and P has doubled in the last five years, investment rarities reflect all the increased demand and available money from many sources.
I've experienced a similar thing for some PQ coins... But I've also gotten a couple of bargains this year on middle end coins ($5k-35k) based on prior auction results.
I do think that there are some pockets of softness in the market but for the very high PQ/rare coins I think you're spot on.
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
The huge increases in the money supply have resulted in lots of dollars floating around, looking for a place to go. You usually don't figure those dollars going to circulated early copper. In the old days it was ultra high grade coins and gold.
I get it. I'm thinking about starting a F-VF indian cent set in a folder.
What gets me about a lot of the people who are driving these prices is that most of them won't buy the same item for less money if it were offered to them at a bourse. They seem to think like lemmings. If everyone is going over the hill, then it's okay for them to follow.
Isn't the winning bidder wondering what crazy mother ran him up that high?
Sometimes, the person who came in second is actually the winner. JMHO.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
For the right coins, I’d rather be the one setting records than the one constantly getting outbid. The trick is finding the right coins - easier said than done - and never settling for anything less.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I've paid up in an auction for some scarce seated quarters like 64-s and 66-s in VF. Sometimes you have to pay up or wait a few years, and then pay up anyway.
I don’t mind paying a strong premium, but I don’t like setting new world record prices by multiples of the old record.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Speaking of the blazing hot market of 1979-80, take a look through the prices realized for the March 1980 Garrett sale, just about the absolute peak of the market. If you had a crystal ball, or maybe just some extraordinarily good judgment, there were some great long term values to be had.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Yea, if you lived for 40 years, but I some of the guys I knew who bought that stuff didn’t have that long. I now I have that long. Add in inflation, and those buys still might not so hot.
For the record, I hated the Garrett Sales and still do. A lot of people with more money than brains drove prices through the roof because speculation and dumping dollars was the order of the day.
Some of these guys may as well execute “buy bids” because that is their mentality. They don’t care how much they pay.
I've been outbid many times on coins I dearly wanted, only to have that exact coin find its way into my collection some months/years later, often even at a lower price due to a variety of odd circumstances.
I ran the numbers recently and this is the case for almost 30% of my entire collection.
So, I've taken a more pragmatic stance recently: bid the highest justifiable bid and if I don't get it, move on and it very well may find its way to my collection eventually.
As long as what you're targeting isn't unique and someone isn't a hoarder, losing "should" knock out the winner from the next example which means your price should be a bid over the second underbidder's max, unless there's a new entrant with interest.
A market collapse is the only cure for the current foolishness. Collectors like me don’t stop buying because of market collapses. So what you say is true. The trouble is it’s harder to find good material during the correction.
A 1980 dollar is worth $3.80 in current money. There were still some good deals.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
But a couple of common date Peace Dollars @ $480 isn’t, and yes that happened.
Don’t forget the 1989 market top!
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
It was definitely easier to buy bad deals!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I’ve been trying to forget that one.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
If you had stayed away from the promotion on the "old commemoratives" you avoided a lot of financial problems. That was when "the investment experts" were telling use that an Isabella Quarter in MS-65 would be worth $16,000+ in 1990. (The was only one example. The rest of the projections were just as bad.) That was in the appendix of the "Gold and Silver Commemorative Coins" 1892 to 1954 by Breen and Swiatek. I don't think that either of those authors were guilty of making those projections. The book was very good for its time, but that part of it was trash.
It's promotions like that which have gotten this hobby into trouble.
If buyers stayed away from coins such as common date MS64 and MS65 Morgan dollars at $400 and $800 and MS65 Walking Liberty halves at $400 (?), they could have avoided a lot of financial trouble, as well. But like you mentioned, the commemoratives - both gold and silver - were selling for astronomical prices.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Great Collections has a 1998 $100 One-Ounce Platinum American Eagle PCGS MS-70 bullion coin at auction currently being bid at over $55,000 with buyer's premium with 4 days left.
This is crazy. Sure, very few early year platinum bullion coins have been graded MS70, but this level of bidding competition makes collecting modern precious metal bullion well out of reach for nearly all collectors. Platinum melt on this is only $1,000. I agree with the OP and find it hard to buy or win anything lately.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Who is driving the current run-up?
It doesn’t feel like speculative or the Wall Street crowd.
Not who, but what. Answer = inflation.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
It seems like the metal prices are driving a lot of this. In past runaway markets, the mentality seemed to be, "If gold and silver are good, then collector coins must be better."
I can't exactly understand why the copper coins that interested me were so attractive. Neither of them had a CAC sticker, and one of them would have never gotten one unless the rules were watered down considerably. Neither one was anywhere near the condition census. This is good time to stay on the sidelines.
"Today, I continue to work on my imperial Roman and British collections. The prices for those have gone up, but it's not crazy. "
Bill, I've been on a long-term quest for Roman portraiture denari (and other non-gold pieces), as well as Greek pieces, for many years. It seems to me that these pieces have gone up at least as much, if not more, than U.S. coins.
Tom
I have not been in the market for that long, so I can't speak to that. If $100 ancient has gone up $150, I don't have the information to know that. I do know that I've had no problem trading back the pieces that didn't fit in my collection any more as I moved forward.
The only ancient for which I paid stupid money was a Gordian II denarius. I paid sort of stupid money for the Gordian I, but it was only a VF.
I was also knocked out of a decent Julius Caesar portrait piece. As usual one guy to it to the moon. I bid three quarters of the way to the moon and didn't get it. I am very good and placing second in auctions.
Now that's funny! A bit sad, but funny! Maybe you are better off?
Tom
Yes, but that was before the start of the biggest worldwide asset, credit, and debt mania in history, the one we are still in now. Gold and silver were in a historic bubble then but by comparison, the US stock market was really cheap measured by any number of metrics, the exact opposite of now. 1981 was also the top of the interest rate cycle dating back to the 40's. This cycle almost certainly reversed in 2020 and if so, there is a long way up with rates ultimately destined to "blow out". The "reason" will become evident later.
Yea, maybe, but I'm getting old, and the time is coming when it will be over. I do have a Julius Caesar portrait coin, but it was made 11 months after he died. It's struck off-center, but it's well preserved, and the portrait is nice.
@TPRC, I guess I should show you the two Gordians.
Gordian I for "partial moon money"
Gordian II for "moon money."
I have one - maybe two - books from the 80's forecasting many type coins and key dates out to the year 2000. My recollection is the first edition came out around 1982 and the second about five years later. (I might have the dates wrong.) Someone else here probably remembers or still owns one or both.
I haven't read either in decades, but my recollection is that the first (at least) assumed continued high inflation and also assumed that coins are "inflation hedges" (which isn't remotely true) due to the price performance in the 70's when US coinage was first widely bought as "investments".
I've never compared actual prices to the forecasts but of the few I remember were off by a mile. The DB SE half was forecasted at something like $250K in VF or XF. The other is the 1949-S Franklin half which I recall forecasted at $400 in "UNC".
That is a wonderful and expressive portrait of Caesar, and nicer than most I've seen.
I don't know enough about the Gordian I and II pieces, except to understand that they are rare! The Gordian II, in particular, is nearly perfect and I suspect you will be rewarded when and if you sell. I have only several types of the common Gordian III.
Tom
The Gordian II was not the highest graded example Heritage has auctioned, but from the photos, it is the sharpest. The Gordian I was from a dealer I know well. I was lucky to spot it on his website and bought it.
I won't tell you what I paid, but it was a lot less (a fraction) than I bid on the two U.S. coins I failed to get, and they are far nicer.
For those who don't know the story, this was when the "Paul Bunyan" of Roman emperors, Maximinus Thrax, who was said to be a giant,, was threatening the patrician citizens of Roman. The man was regarded as a barbarian, and he may have been close to one.
The Romans wanted him replaced and Gordian I and II, who were father and son and stationed in the North Africa, co-emperors. Maximinus Thrax, had a supporter in the African Roman colonies. Gordian II took a rag-tag force of volunteers and palace guards out to fight a professional army. The results were predictable. Gordian II and his men were anyolated. When Gordian I, the father got word, he committed suicide. They had ruled for less than three weeks.
Some collectors question how the Gordian I and II coins were made in Rome, given their short reign. Part of the answer is that news traveled slowly in the ancient world.
As far as early copper... I'm not going after higher end MS pieces. Over the last five years I've managed to get some nice VF to AU Middle Dates, but I still bid strongly for those. For Liberty Caps, Draped Bust, and (especially) Classic Heads... problem free coins even down to the G/VG range attract lots of bidders.
I've been on the sidelines for a decent 1793, 1799, and 1804. There are decent 1804s in the $3-4k range, as well as, a few 1793s... 1799 is always going to be problematic... a few months ago, I bid just over $1k on a Fr2 details coin that had a strong date... and it went for over twice that! That's when I decided to do a set of VG to XF Liberty Nickels... I've added Buffalo Nickels to the mix too.
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
I've watched a veteran, very savvy dealer pay $1,600 for a raw 1799 cent that could only be identified by the die chip in under the "E" in "ONE" on the reverse. If that coin had a readable date, and was definitely real, $2,000 sounds reasonable although I wouldn't want it.
There are grades where I simply say, if I can't afford something better, I'll go without.
I got an email from one of the many sharp and astute buyer/dealers on ebay that a piece of currency with a stain I had sold for around $300, was cleaned up, certified, and sold by the dealer/buyer for over $2K within a few months! The numbers of sharp eyes looking for low population rare collectibles just keeps going up. And then when purchased most are kept in portfolios stored away in climate controlled secure facilities for years.
As a sanity check prior to attending FUN tomorrow, I decided to check eBay prices on some of the large cents I’m looking for. Ugh! The BIN prices just seemed ridiculous.
If that is the answer, it doesn’t make sense to sit on the sidelines. Quality coins tomorrow will not be cheaper than today.
Same question in the equity markets - exuberance or inflation (or both)?
From personal experience I can tell you that prices can come down for high quality coins. I saw major melt downs in 1980-1. I saw them again after I bought some really good coins like an 1808 quarter eagle in 2012 and watched it drop. It has only recovered over the past year. Ditto for a PCGS graded AU 1795 $10 gold.
Overheated market prices can definitely come down.
I too was after the 1799 Cent. It was nice but the price surprised me.
My question is whether the market is “overheated”.
This doesn’t feel like the 80s where outside investors poured into the market.
If the driver is inflation or passionate new collectors or millennial collectors who can now afford better coins, then the market may be sustainable for quite some time.
But I don’t know. I’m sure the auction houses and major dealers have a better sense of who the customers are that are driving up prices.
If you sit out, dream coins may become prohibitively expensive.
Nothing wrong with a 69
Nothing wrong with that coin. It has character. I'd rather have that coin than almost any US coin you can name.
You ignored my point about 2012, but no matter. I too once went in with the mind set that coin prices steadily increase, for many years. Fifty-years of experience have taught me different. But I know as a dealer you always have say “onward and upward forever.”
If I never get the two coins I mentioned, so be it. I’m holding many pieces that are better than those coins. I can live without them. It would just be nice to acquire a couple nice coins. If this market, and the market and the “I am never going to stop bidding” bidders stop me, there are plenty of other coins to enjoy.
I never argued that coins go up indefinitely. They certainly do not. Anyone can take a look at the PCGS3000 from 1970 to date and see that.
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/pcgs3000
I am simply inquiring as to the drivers of the current increases. You seem to think we are currently in a bubble. I say that the sustainability of the recent price increases depend on the drivers. The current drivers are not readily apparent to me but seem to be different than past market cycles.
Exactly this
Latin American Collection
If you are 42 and think the market will correct from lofty levels, fine, wait. If you are 75, have a few mil in the bank, and want a coin, just f’ing buy it or be comfortable with your heirs spending your money on their own frivolous crap.
Latin American Collection
Yes these people bidding stuff up will lose money. When they go to sell they will implode. Their best bet buy at a show off the bourse - Better pay the money, Mkt on way up. What 95 pct collectors lose money? Some I believe hold too long then coin nose dives acquires tarnish, gunk.
Been doing buying from walkup sellers needing sell - offer 10 pct behind bid (if acceptable for inventory). Bought some CACG, PCGS, NGC. Some even retailed at same show. Sweet. I was wearing my green golf shirt (for shows), buying sign (cash paid), plus had couple stacks of Bens inside show case (buying cash).