Quick CACG Market Thought
Sorry if this has been discussed but a quick thought:
It seems market prices for CACG vs PCGS plus CAC sticker are similar (as a general statement). PCGS no sticker obviously sells for a discount (again general statement).
That said, if suddently CAC stops sticker services I feel the masses would gravitate toward CACG as the market clearly has a lack of confidence in PCGS vs. PCGS plus CAC sticker (based on auction pricing and even pre-post sticker prices of the same exact coin). If your average collector/buyer has to choose CACG vs straight up PCGS, it seems like CACG would prevail.
My self disclosed bias is collecting early gold with significant price deviations between CAC and non CAC coins and also being a niche participant of this form.
Also note: I don’t not own any CACG coins yet. All PCGS/CAC
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That may be true of some of the highly particular collectors on this forum (perhaps, me included), but not at all true for the “average collector”—CAC in either form is still pretty niche.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
I'll take the nice PCGS graded coin at "a steep discount".
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I like CACG grading, and I pay CAC money for them. I hope to see a holder revision in the future, but I have no complaints of the coins from what i've seen so far.
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The premise of the OP's argument is false thus not allowing a well thought-out and informative answer.
peacockcoins
That’s one possibility, but not the only one. If forced to choose between PCGS and CACG, collectors may very well choose the former. You’ve said that CAC and PCGS-CAC fetch similar prices, but there are many here who hold the view that the latter may be easier to obtain than the former and that CACG is too conservative. This could put pressure on CAC to resume stickering or forego a large market share. Why subject your coins to stricter standards than necessary to get the most money? To the collectors here, many of which are elite and the top 1% of the market, CAC has more importance than to 99% of the market. I don’t think there are many CAC-only collectors as your scenario assumes. I do think your scenario would almost certainly increase prices (secondary to fixed/limited supply) of PCGS-CAC coins.
John has said publicly that he plans on continuing the stickering side of CAC for at least 10 years (that was about 18 months ago, so 8+ years at a minimum to go).
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I like what I've seen on the CACG coins so far, but not allowing them in the registry here is a drawback. It is PCGS's call, but at this time I'd rather get the PCGS coin with a sticker over the CACG coin if it's for the registry. Others have said the same.
10-4,
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It's still been only a year, pretty early to make any broad statements yet IMO.
But what percentage of slabbed coins are actually in the registry?
It depends on how much demand remains for stickering. I would have to imagine that the profit margins from stickering far exceed the grading due requiring much less overhead and handling and getting paid to repeatedly not-sticker coins that are repeatedly submitted.
Beyond that though, I am working an experiment where I just bought a CACG coin at auction on a whim that I will cross to PCGS and re-sell and post the results. I expect it to cross to PCGS +1 grade. It's a sample size of one so I don't know how illustrative it will be, but it should be interesting nonetheless.
With respect, I’d hardly say non-CAC PCGS coins sell at a “discount.” I would however say that CAC stickered coins sell at a premium. There is a difference in that approach and how it’s currently being applied in the market.
There’s nothing I’ve seen indicating any kind of drop in value of PCGS coins. On the other hand I have observed CAC coins acquire an increase in prices. I would expect a modest price increase as you’re getting two valued and respected opinions on one coin. But, I’m not sure these increases are modest, nor rational, but that’s another conversation altogether.
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, if NGC and PCGS started stickering each others coins, I bet you’d see price increases matching, or at least rivaling, CAC stickered coins.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
This is a fair question but CACG has said that one thing it miscalculated was how important the registries are to many collectors. It is a reason they have made their own registry a priority now.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
I have some CACG (had to pay up for them). A couple have sold even, positive margin. Have PCGS and NGC too plus some Anacs, ICG. Pickup a lot of mixed lots; estates, offers off bourse. At the very least it’s just all cost plus. Not stuck in concrete on it so not to worry. One guy I know it’s ICG all the way for him. I think all the above wb replaced by some AI graded holder sometime in the future. Then the world Mkt merged in. It could be one of the above who goes to that formation.
I think CAC will drop the sticker thing at some point in time. I would have dropped it by now. It’s like they playing 2 QB. For me it’s all in the deal, and what it can do for me.
I have a theory that CAC stickered PCGS coins may start to be more expensive than CACG coins due to the fact that CAC is now a full fledged TPG that slabs coins, there is likely a conflict of interest in stickering PCGS and NGC coins. I know John is trying to project that CAC and CACG are separate entities, but I have a feeling they will start to be harsher on coins that they sticker, leading to higher prices on stickered coins.
I believe CAC stickering has become a moving target... I believe they have become very inconsistent with the stickering.
I believe this is being done to drive collectors who want the stickers to put their coins into CaCG holders. Had a gorgeous 10$ Indian in a rattler not sticker as well as an old holder 10$. I did not believe they deserved stickering just because of the old holder but becauelse they are significantly under graded.
I have been a huge CAC fan but in the last 12 months feel like the stickering has become blatantly inconsistent.
Just my random 2 cents... aka
Frustrated in Texas
Their being harsher on one or another is a subjective assumption. With different points in time, graders it could go either way. Furthermore if they harsher on x vs y, then a player might only buy y as they valued same in CDN - CPG / Bid. I do believe more likely sticker line wb dropped at some point in time.
My concern is how long have the stickered been in the holder and have they decreased in quality over time (tarnish, exposure to atmosphere)? If one can examine original photo of stickered when originally graded that answer can be found. Is it still good or now gone bad?
I have seen that also, I’ve kept it to myself, but you completely nailed it. I have seen it both ways, nice stuff being rejected for sticker and then stuff that’s just awful with the sticker, it’s drastically changed my opinion lately.
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I will continue to buy the coin the holder is secondary to me.
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Same here!
I’m not even seeing steep discounts on PCGS Details coins lately, unless it has major problems.
My perception may be incorrect as some time has passed, but my recollection is JA’s comment implied CAC stickering would cease NO LATER than the end of his 10 year contract. I believe decisions on timing of CAC stickering will be made based on business decisions, with a lot depending on some “moving parts”.
Keep in mind the pricing of CAC stickering has risen tremendously just a short time ago, with stickering costs raised very close to that of CACG grading. This was a business decision (which is fine) to encourage submitters to get their coins graded by CACG, instead of getting stickered.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Once again I commend you for your willingness to conduct an experiment (your prior experiment was your submission of 20 coins to CMQ, some of which had CAC stickers, and others had failed CAC).
My guess on your 1 coin experiment is that while it’s quite likely the coin graded by CACG may merit a grade by PCGS of one grade higher (as you suspect), I’d be surprised if it actually crosses at one grade higher! Good luck, and as you said, please keep us posted on the results of this one coin experiment.
Thanks.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Regarding the OP, I believe that when the day comes that CAC stickering does indeed stop, the price differential we now see between PCGS stickered coins and PCGS non stickered coins (as a generalization) will increase even more, as the quantity of PCGS stickered coins will then be fixed forever!
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
@winesteven said in response to @ProofCollection:
My guess on your 1 coin experiment is that while it’s quite likely the coin graded by CACG may merit a grade by PCGS of one grade higher (as you suspect), I’d be surprised if it actually crosses at one grade higher!
I agree with @winesteven if the coin is left in the CACG holder, but if you crack it out, it may go grade higher.
Life member of ANA
How can you guys comment on the chances of the coin crossing at the same grade or being cracked out and receiving a higher grade, without having seen it or even pictures of it?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Just a guess, based on:
Just a comment, which as you see was “hedged” by my inclusion of the word “may” merit.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
@MFeld said:
How can you guys comment on the chances of the coin crossing at the same grade or being cracked out and receiving a higher grade, without having seen it or even pictures of it?
My comment had more to do with my feelings that right now in the current TPGs environment, the TPGs are going to be reluctant to give a competitors' slabbed coin a bump to a higher grade. Raw, they will call it as they see it. I also was giving credit to @ProofCollection opinion of the coin in question.
Life member of ANA
No - that is incorrect. It was for at least 10 years - that lined up with JA's contract with CAC and may be extended. About 8.5 years to go at a minimum.
Owner/Founder GreatCollections
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OK, I stand corrected!
And that’s good news!
Thanks.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
When the time comes I'll post the details and do a At what grade will it Cross? poll thread.
But I think it has to be submitted raw to remove any bias from the PCGS grading team otherwise I think there is too much energy toward just keeping the existing grade. Plus it'll be interesting to see how hard it is to crack out a CACG coin.
In my opinion, I agree it will likely have a better shot as a raw coin rather than as a cross, just as my sense is that submitting a PCGS graded coin as a Regrade is supposedly often more successful than via Reconsideration.
Separately, I’ve read of someone having a super tough time cracking a coin out of a CACG holder. Be careful you don’t damage the coin.
Good luck!
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
What "early gold" coins do you collect ?
Why ask them when you could just read their minds?
Because that was supposed to be a secret!'
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Steve -
I can’t dispute your assertion above (reconsideration/regrade). Anything can happen; I recently submitted this one for reconsideration:
Instead, I got a regrade:
Same coin, believe it or not. Was looking to get a PR designation; fortunately I saved the old pic (which is what the coin actually looks like).
One never knows what can happen these days!
Ken
“The thrill of the hunt never gets old”
PCGS Registry: Screaming Eagles
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Retired sets: Soaring Eagles
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Ken - PCGS says when they do a "Regrade", they crack it out of the holder so the graders treat it as a raw coin, then assign a grade. That grade will not be allowed any lower than the original grade, BUT the key point is that when it goes in the brand new holder, regardless if the grade is the same or higher, it gets a NEW cert #. Your photos above have the same cert number, even though the photo is new. That leads me to believe they did a Reconsideration, which RETAINS the SAME cert #.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
@winesteven: thanks for the lesson. I hereby appoint you my grading guru!
“The thrill of the hunt never gets old”
PCGS Registry: Screaming Eagles
Copperindian
Retired sets: Soaring Eagles
Copperindian
You need to assign me a name different than "Your Grading Guru", as my grading skills are admittedly poor, lol.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
CAC has had inconsistencies since the beginning, but one dare not say that without getting flamed. I have a rather large file of pictures, which I called “CAC question.” I know that for the CAC adherents that this is either heresy or fiction, but it’s what I have observed.
Does CAC get it right? Yes, over 95% of the time, but it does not bat 1.000.
@winesteven: how about grading navigator?
“The thrill of the hunt never gets old”
PCGS Registry: Screaming Eagles
Copperindian
Retired sets: Soaring Eagles
Copperindian
@BillJones: sounds like a similar CAC file I’ve compiled. But overall, I agree with their good work.
“The thrill of the hunt never gets old”
PCGS Registry: Screaming Eagles
Copperindian
Retired sets: Soaring Eagles
Copperindian
Over 95% of the time sounds excellent to me. I've never heard even the most ardent CAC advocates claim even that high, much less, 100%. Please note, I'm not flaming you for your post.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I have. One person attacked me for over six months on these boards for refusing to say that CAC didn’t get it right 100% of the time.
And just so everyone knows, that was NOT me, lol.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
I do believe on a reconsideration, if they do change the grade you get a new cert number.
Only if it increases by numerical grade, a + would retain the same cert.
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Absolutely NOT true! I've been playing the Reconsideration game for years, as the coins I submit have CAC stickers, and it's so much easier getting CAC to automatically reapply their sticker to a coin that gets a plus added to the whole grade if the cert number remained the same. Without exception, EVERY time I got an upgrade, the cert number remained unchanged.
@DeplorableDan , you are incorrect as well. On the very rare occasion when I would get an upgrade of a whole grade via Reconsideration, the cert number also remained unchanged. However, in that case, getting the CAC sticker reapplied is NOT automatic, as CAC has to then determine if the coin is solid at that new higher whole grade!
While I often "hedge" many of my comments, no need for that in these two cases.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
I stand corrected! As you can tell, I don’t have much experience jumping to the next grade via reconsideration 😅.
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I have my own growing file of questionable CAC coins as well. I'm just trying to understand their grading and how they deal with surface corrosion on coins, often from being in PVC flips.
Not many of us do. My experience is it's EXTREMELY tough to get to the next higher whole grade via Reconsideration. While not easy with a Regrade, my sense is that is an "easier" route, but still tough.
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
What you say makes sense. Getting old is tough, I have had a few successful reconsiderations but it's been a while and I could have sworn it resulted in a new cert but I must have destroyed those brain cells already. Thanks for the info.