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The Case For $5,000 Gold

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    GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,316 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 9, 2023 9:25AM

    Eh.....I can't say it isn't true, but if they REALLY had no confidence -- like with Jimmy Carter and G. William Miller at the Fed in the late-1970's....you'd see gold rising 2-3% a day with a couple of 5-10% moves. We are seeing nothing like that.

    The big meeting is today, the markets are selling off, T-Bills are reflecting a possible default, and gold isn't even up $3. :o

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 9, 2023 10:30AM

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    Eh.....I can't say it isn't true, but if they REALLY had no confidence -- like with Jimmy Carter and G. William Miller at the Fed in the late-1970's....you'd see gold rising 2-3% a day with a couple of 5-10% moves. We are seeing nothing like that.

    yet

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,316 ✭✭✭✭

    So you think a gold move of up $3 shows a lack of confidence in our leaders ?

    OK........... :D

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 9, 2023 10:32AM

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,316 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 9, 2023 12:19PM

    But this is what I am talking about. Yes, there's an article...but gold is up $9 today. $9 bucks !!

    If it was up $150 after a few days of big gains, that's saying something. As a money manager, I can't take an article like that to my clients and tell them their portfolio is doing so-so but enjoy the article. :D

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 9, 2023 2:33PM

    Goldfinger you've stated that you are a money manager. As a money manager do you get commissions when your clients buy physical PMs? Does the answer to that question affect your ability to be honest with your clients about what's the best investment for them when it comes to PMs? Do you personally hold physical metals or have an interest in learning/sharing about them? If not what brings you to a form where precious metals are discussed?

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,316 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 9, 2023 3:22PM

    @derryb said:

    Goldfinger you've stated that you are a money manager. As a money manager do you get commissions when your clients buy physical PMs? Does the answer to that question affect your ability to be honest with your clients about what's the best investment for them when it comes to PMs? Do you personally hold physical metals or have an interest in learning/sharing about them? If not what brings you to a form where precious metals are discussed?

    Good questions, Derry....I don't get commissions when clients buy gold unless I buy it for them via an ETF. Since most of my clients are F&F, I really don't get paid to manage their $$$ anyway. I do it because they trust me, they need me, and I can help them.

    I DO tell my clients to have some gold -- coins or bars, not paper or ETFs and not stored at a bank -- and they've been buying Saints and other gold coins for 30 years. This is their DISCRETIONARY $$$ for disaster insurance and not their core investment portfolio.

    I have been collecting gold for 40 years (should be longer as I wanted to buy a Kruggerand in 1974 but my dad shot me down :) )

    If I thought gold was a good investment over the long haul, I would buy the s*** out of it. I know from experience and the historical record -- ROLLING TIME PERIODS !!! -- it is not. I tell my F&F that buying coins is nice...you have a piece of American history....it's gold....maybe we'll make $$$...maybe we won't....but it's fun and your kids or grandkids or friends can enjoy and see them, too.

    I have said I think gold is going MUCH higher but that doesn't change my viewpoint that given the volatility and lack of interest/dividends that gold pays....that traditional bonds (especially at current levels) and stocks (over the long haul and maybe at lower levels) are simply better investments.

    I came here after years of inactivity to mostly post and read on the U.S. Forums but I have spent most of my time posting here in the PM section. Go figure..... :D

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    psuman08psuman08 Posts: 245 ✭✭✭

    I was formerly a financial consultant and my commissions NEVER affected my ability to choose the best investment for a client. If you do the right thing, you will have more clients that have more money.

    I'm with @Goldfinger, PMs are not a great investment for long term growth. Bonds held to maturity and stocks are better investment for long term investing. That said, I think PMs are a buy as a store of value (with the chance of appreciation) for all the reasons that have been discussed in this forum.

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    JimTylerJimTyler Posts: 3,092 ✭✭✭✭✭

    This might be old fashion (I am old) or maybe I’ve seen It’s a Wonderful Life to many times but I like my gold coins because I’m in possession. I known it’s the way things are but I’m not a fan of money that is digits on a computer screen. 💩’s getting hacked all the time, scammers out there. I really don’t think I’m a conspiracy theorist but I often thought home ownership being the American dream was just so the big boys had something of yours they could put a lean on if ever something went wrong. My grandma was an angel to me and she lived a long life never buying a home. I remember spending the night in her apartment in one of those old Chicago 3 flats with the ceramic type foyer floor, creaking carpeted stair case and the funny smell.

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    SoldiSoldi Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 10, 2023 11:41AM

    Yes, these past few Fed Chairman and law makers Congress ( Glass - Steagall ) Yes, these fellows do take the cake and leave much to be desired. There was no need for Dodd/Frank when we had provisions I know! I know! it's just my pet peeve, but people ie citizens around the world are making * "investments" * on Gold and Silver, myself included.

    *please everyone does it for the money

    I have seen videos of regular Joes and there wives taking 25% of their income and living on that amount; all the while "investing" 75 % in precious metals. Seems (Not US on the boards) a little to much to chance when you and I have seen the last 45 years of Metals and the fickle behavior of the markets

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭

    A good reason to go long with PMs: The FED will create $trillions to fight the coming recession.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,316 ✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    A good reason to go long with PMs: The FED will create $trillions to fight the coming recession.

    Means nothing. They've done that before and if other CBs do more, the dollar can strengthen.

    Focus on gold supply/demand fundies alone.

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    D808LFD808LF Posts: 404 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If/when America experiences $5,000 gold, that's a lot of pressure on Renville, or any other 'ville for that matter.

    Regarding Future Shock, AI could be the fourth category after 'agrarian, industrial, post industrial'.

    fka renman95, Sep 2005, 7,000 posts

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @derryb said:
    A good reason to go long with PMs: The FED will create $trillions to fight the coming recession.

    Means nothing. They've done that before and if other CBs do more, the dollar can strengthen.

    Means everything. As shown since at least 2008, Quantitive Easing (printing) drives gold up.

    Focus on gold supply/demand fundies alone.

    Fundies on most all markets, especially precious metals futures (spot) markets, went out the window when responsible money/economy management went out the window. One should go long gold based on the above chart (assuming/knowing we are looking at more FED QE with the coming/present recession?). Supply and demand fundies for PMs are limited to premiums where actual market participants ask/bid with actual products.

    Another good reason gold is a screaming buy is:

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    .> derryb said

    Means everything. As shown since at least 2008, Quantitive Easing (printing) drives gold up.

    Does the chart of the stock market look similar? How about residential home prices?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    Does the chart of the stock market look similar? How about residential home prices?

    probably do, but the asset under discussion was the effect of money printing on gold. And as the chart shows gold just loves QE.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    Does the chart of the stock market look similar? How about residential home prices?

    probably do, but the asset under discussion was the effect of money printing on gold. And as the chart shows gold just loves QE.

    Why to you emotionalize gold?

    You may find this article helpful as it discusses some nefarious ways charts are often used. Which manipulation strategy have you fallen victim to?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    BucketHeadBucketHead Posts: 129 ✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    There is no "banking cartel" corrupt or otherwise.

    The Federal Reserve and their member/owner banks is absolutely a "cartel".
    We do not get to choose, or vote on, what they do and who they are.
    And yet, they perform "central planning" of the economy via the setting of interest rates and other levers.
    And, or course, they make a profit for themselves.

    I agree 100% Dan. Anyone who doesn't should try searching for "The Secret of Oz" by Bill Still... oh what the heck, I'll do it for them:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rmc8GDlyAQg

    If anyone watches this and still believes that there is no banking cartel, report back and then we can have a discussion.

    Cheers.

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    GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,316 ✭✭✭✭

    If anyone watches this and still believes that there is no banking cartel, report back and then we can have a > > >discussion.

    It's gobbledygook nonsense. How come this "cartel" trades at a below-market P/E....earns less on invested capital....and has sub-par stock returns ?

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    dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,028 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    If anyone watches this and still believes that there is no banking cartel, report back and then we can have a > > >discussion.

    It's gobbledygook nonsense. How come this "cartel" trades at a below-market P/E....earns less on invested capital....and has sub-par stock returns ?

    The Federal Reserve Bank orders coins from the US Mint, as needed.
    The Federal Reserve Bank orders currency from the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, as needed.

    The FRB pays the US Treasury for the face value amount of the coins delivered to them.

    Does the FRB pay the US Treasury the face value amount of the currency that is printed for the FRB and delivered to the FRB ?

    Where does the FRB get the money to buy all these assets that swell their balance sheet ?

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 1, 2023 10:35PM

    The case for $5K gold is the same case for $10 Big Macs - just a matter of time inflation.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    coinercoiner Posts: 431 ✭✭✭

    The price is manipulated by traders who are shorting paper gold without the qty of physical to back the paper up.
    Until the powers that be allow the spot Gold price to reach its “real” value and stop the manipulation; we will never see 3-5-10k per oz.

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    coinercoiner Posts: 431 ✭✭✭

    As far as others believe that with gold at 5k we would have a $100 load of bread…I beg to differ……as the real value of gold is much higher now than reflected in the spot prices published.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 2, 2023 6:26AM

    @coiner said:
    As far as others believe that with gold at 5k we would have a $100 load of bread…I beg to differ……as the real value of gold is much higher now than reflected in the spot prices published.

    two prices for gold - imaginary stuff spot price, real stuff price. for now the price of one dictates the base price of the other.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,406 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If the BRICS are successful in establishing are commodity-based system away from the dollar, they are likely to see the price difference between imaginary paper gold and the Real Thing as an arbitrage opportunity to clean out what metal still remains in the system.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    If the BRICS are successful in establishing are commodity-based system away from the dollar, they are likely to see the price difference between imaginary paper gold and the Real Thing as an arbitrage opportunity to clean out what metal still remains in the system.

    Commodities are called commodities for a reason. And that's why there has never been a successful system built around them.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,406 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Commodities are called commodities for a reason. And that's why there has never been a successful system built around them.

    Fiat currencies have done worse. They fail every time.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 3, 2023 8:02AM

    @cohodk said:

    Commodities are called commodities for a reason. And that's why there has never been a successful system built around them.

    gold barely qualifies as a commodity based on its high cost and VERY limited use as a "commodity.' Cheaper, suitable alternatives to industrial gold will all be chosen when available.

    Least we forget that gold is money.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Commodities are called commodities for a reason. And that's why there has never been a successful system built around them.

    Fiat currencies have done worse. They fail every time.

    As did every system built on PMs.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,806 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 3, 2023 4:57AM

    Yes... there are charts that are used to manipulate individuals in regards to gold.

    Sure glad nothing like that happens in the financial - stock investing world!! Human nature is... human nature. Individuals are manipulated no matter what field.... whatever can get someone the most profit. > @cohodk said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Commodities are called commodities for a reason. And that's why there has never been a successful system built around them.

    Fiat currencies have done worse. They fail every time.

    As did every system built on PMs.

    True in one sense. They failed, when governments interfered and diluted precious metal contents of the coins, or size. Or no longer honored notes, etc., based in any way with precious metals. Or countries failed, etc.

    BUT... I suspect a gold coin in hand... still had many takers in exchange for goods and services. Unlike failed bank notes, failed company stock certificates, etc.

    ----- kj
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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,806 ✭✭✭✭✭

    But can a system be built, based entirely on gold / silver / precious metals? Beats me.... way beyond my pay grade. I try to keep things as simple as possible... and leave the ponderous debates for others.

    ----- kj
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 3, 2023 10:46AM

    @cohodk said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Commodities are called commodities for a reason. And that's why there has never been a successful system built around them.

    Fiat currencies have done worse. They fail every time.

    As did every system built on PMs.

    history shows that monetary systems backed by PMs fail for three reasons only.

    1. the PM content of the coinage is reduced/diluted over time (i.e. Rome).
    2. the PM backing of paper currencies is removed (i.e. US).
    3. failure of the political system itself that takes the monetary system down with it.

    monetary systems based on PMs force restraint on public purse strings. They eliminate the need to periodically raise debt ceilings that debase/devalue the money.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    .> derryb said

    Means everything. As shown since at least 2008, Quantitive Easing (printing) drives gold up.

    Does the chart of the stock market look similar? How about residential home prices?

    I addressed that on the stock market and real estate forums. lol

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Commodities are called commodities for a reason. And that's why there has never been a successful system built around them.

    Fiat currencies have done worse. They fail every time.

    As did every system built on PMs.

    history shows that monetary systems backed by PMs fail for three reasons only.

    1. the PM content of the coinage is reduced/diluted over time (i.e. Rome).
    2. the PM backing of paper currencies is removed (i.e. US).
    3. failure of the political system itself that takes the monetary system down with it.

    monetary systems based on PMs force restraint on public purse strings.

    No they don't. If so, then why is there not a single economic system based on PMs?

    All economic systems are based on the will of the people.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 4, 2023 9:08AM

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Commodities are called commodities for a reason. And that's why there has never been a successful system built around them.

    Fiat currencies have done worse. They fail every time.

    As did every system built on PMs.

    history shows that monetary systems backed by PMs fail for three reasons only.

    1. the PM content of the coinage is reduced/diluted over time (i.e. Rome).
    2. the PM backing of paper currencies is removed (i.e. US).
    3. failure of the political system itself that takes the monetary system down with it.

    monetary systems based on PMs force restraint on public purse strings.

    No they don't. If so, then why is there not a single economic system based on PMs?

    Because governments realized they could recklessly break and raise debt barriers if the money was not based on PMs. Exactly why Rome slowly reduced the PM content of it's money until there was finally no more Rome. PM backed money places restraints on it's public spenders. Seeing that you don't agree that this universal law is a reality says you don't understand money.

    All economic systems are based on the will of the people.

    the backing of a monetary system is not based on the will of the people. It is based on the will of their elected spenders and their unelected economic leadership.

    Let's hear your argument on how backing a currency with PMS does not place restraint on its printers and spenders. You really should consider being a proponent of sound money.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    A "universal law"? Lol.

    As long as people are involved, societies will fail, because we are ruled by emotions.

    You say a system is not based on the will of the people, then the say its based on people (elected or otherwise). Basing a system on gold or cow manure will fail if people don't place restraint on themselves. Neither gold nor cow manure can make any restrictions

    Gravity is a universal law. So let's base a system in that. I guarantee you it will fail, because people are involved.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 4, 2023 3:10PM

    @cohodk said:

    You say a system is not based on the will of the people, then the say its based on people (elected or otherwise).

    People don't establish or control an economic system. They do elect reps who may, or is often the case, may not listen to the will of the people.

    Basing a system on gold or cow manure will fail if people don't place restraint on themselves. Neither gold nor cow manure can make any restrictions

    Personal financial responsibility controls personal finances, it has no control of the system that their finances are a part of.
    A monetary system backed by gold does have restraints on how much money there will be.

    Gravity is a universal law. So let's base a system in that. I guarantee you it will fail, because people are involved.

    Weight is a result of gravity. Many systems are based on weight. The gold system is based on weight. People create and use systems, they are involved with every system. What makes a system fail is a lack of qualifications or responsibility (or the presence of greed) on the part of those appointed (rarely elected) to properly manage the rules of the system. Agreed upon rules work well when they are fair, open to question and equally enforced.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,316 ✭✭✭✭

    The SEC moving against Binance and CoinBase is positive for gold, however much to be determined.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:
    The SEC moving against Binance and CoinBase is positive for gold, however much to be determined.

    that's assuming cryptos reduce gold demand. I don't believe they do - two different audiences.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    VasantiVasanti Posts: 452 ✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @blitzdude said:

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @jmski52 said:
    $5,000 gold? I'll believe it when I see it. Not that it won't happen, of course.

    I don't think it's coming anytime soon. It's a long-term forecast.

    It's like predicting $250 gold when gold was $35 in the 1960's.

    Yeah $5k is a stretch considering we can't even seem to hold onto $2k for more than a few days. That said, always bullish for the metal of kings. Forecast: North. RGDS!

    When gold was $35, nobody thought it would hit $200.

    When gold was $200, nobody thought it would hit $800.

    When gold was $250 in 2000, nobody thought it would go up to $1,800.

    Gold may lay around $2,000 for years....it'll make the move higher in 2030 or 2035 that much more soaring.

    Gold isn’t protected from inflation. The price of gold when adjusted for inflation was higher 20 years ago than it is now.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭

    metals on the move this morning. Hope it sticks.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Just about everything is "on the move higher" today.

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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    GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,595 ✭✭✭✭✭

    There has been a lot of resistance around $2,000 the past three years. I can imagine $3,000 in 10 years, but $5,000 would mean a lot of bad things have to happen.

    I am guilty of selling a little bit every time it gets above $2,000, too.

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    percybpercyb Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭
    edited June 11, 2023 3:06PM

    @Goldminers said:
    There has been a lot of resistance around $2,000 the past three years. I can imagine $3,000 in 10 years, but $5,000 would mean a lot of bad things have to happen.

    I am guilty of selling a little bit every time it gets above $2,000, too.

    I concur w you and have been a seller over 2k. Those gold and silver charts look like the path is higher, though it may be at a snails pace.

    I won’t be selling anymore for a number of years.

    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
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    VasantiVasanti Posts: 452 ✭✭✭✭

    Remember, once you adjust for inflation, gold is worth less than it was 11 years ago.

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    You're chart shows it worth less than 40 years ago. But thats impossible!! >:)

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    VasantiVasanti Posts: 452 ✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    You're chart shows it worth less than 40 years ago. But thats impossible!! >:)

    It’s buying power in terms of real dollars is lower. Not surpassingly, when inflation goes up, the price of gold goes up. Not for some magic reason, but because dollars are worth less.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭

    the case for $5K gold:

    10 years of QE and the dollar and the economy are worse off.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Vasanti said:

    @cohodk said:
    You're chart shows it worth less than 40 years ago. But thats impossible!! >:)

    It’s buying power in terms of real dollars is lower. Not surpassingly, when inflation goes up, the price of gold goes up. Not for some magic reason, but because dollars are worth less.

    Haven't we had inflation for the last 40 years?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,257 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @Vasanti said:

    @cohodk said:
    You're chart shows it worth less than 40 years ago. But thats impossible!! >:)

    It’s buying power in terms of real dollars is lower. Not surpassingly, when inflation goes up, the price of gold goes up. Not for some magic reason, but because dollars are worth less.

    Haven't we had inflation for the last 40 years?

    not stable and controlled inflation. Far from the FEDs goal of 2% per year.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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