The Case For $5,000 Gold
GoldFinger1969
Posts: 1,757 ✭✭✭✭✭
I was gonna call this thread "The Case for $3,000 Gold" -- but I wanted a long-term perspective and who cares about a 50% rise in the price over a decade, right ? That's only 4% a year or so. That'd be like saying that gold was going to $100 an ounce in the 1960's when the real market price was probably $50-$60 (official price was $35/oz.). 
I do believe that over the next 10-12 years that gold can hit $5,000. I'll discuss some reasons why below as (hopefully) gold stays above $2,000 and gets to $2,500 within a year or two and maybe $3,000 by 2027.
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Ultimately, gold will go up as rising demand outstrips supply (new + existing stocks). Supply can be from central banks and new mining supply annually. So where will a new source of demand come from ?
Keep an eye on Indian demand, as 10-15 million Indians go from poverty incomes to middle-class incomes every year for the next decade. They will not put the 10-fold rise in incomes into more food, it will be used for consumption and savings (gold).
Here's annual Indian gold consumption over the decades:
Pre-Independence (1947)........ ~ 30 tons per year
1950's-1960's............................. ~ 90 tons per year
1980's........................................ ~ 150 tons per year
1990's........................................ ~ 375 tons per year
Today........................................ ~ 700 tons per year
If by 2030, India is taking in 1,500 tons of gold per year, that is a big drawdown combined with more rising Chinese/Asian, African, South/Central American demand, plus Europe/North America.
IMO, gold today is where it was in the early-1960's....you KNEW the price was going alot higher, you just didn't know WHEN.
But playing devil's advocate here.... At 3,100 metric tons a year worldwide production, and India at ~20% of world's polulation and disproportionate consumer of gold on per capita basis, why are any significant new sources of gold needed? Why should gold cost more than 1-2 times the cost to dig it out of the ground? Assuming all-in production costs of $1200-1300/oz.
Great questions....first, I think the all-in production costs are closer to $1,500 and rising. Higher royalty rates, energy costs, ESG baloney, etc....all are driving up the costs.
Metal prices have far outstripped production costs in the past -- even if the prices proved fleeting. If demand continues to grow FASTER than supply then higher prices will be needed.
I have some sell-side reports on sources of supply and demand, I'll try and post it.
From your mouth to God's ears.
Your thesis is based on increased demand from India, not Comex imploding, the dollar losing reserve status, 100 trillion billion million in derivatives, or corrupt banking cartels.....I'm I hearing you right?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The internet will be obsolete, by then.
Well... I would say $5000/oz. will happen... Of course, no idea when... and I do not like to think about what will propel gold to that level. I fear it will be disastrous for the U.S. dollar, and geo-economics. Demand alone would not drive it to that level - unless in some distant future, all earthly supplies are depleted. None of us will be around to see that happen. Cheers, RickO
if gold goes to $5000 per ounce, where will silver be?
Absolutely....banking on those "factors" is like hoping for a nuclear war.
COMEX is not going to "implode" -- it's very transparent. All trades are settled in real time (did you see Trading Places ?
).
The nominal or notional value of derivatives dwarfs the at-risk portion. If they haven't "imploded" yet during the last 35 years of upheaval every 5-7 years, why would they in the future ?
The dollar is not losing Reserve Currency status.
There is no "banking cartel" corrupt or otherwise.
If and when Gold hits $5k per oz. I'll wager that your average salary would also have doubled. So would housing and the cost of living. Personally, I see no bottom line gain in that scenario.
Yes, it's amazing what happens when someone exit the bunker and decides to dig their head out of the sand. A phenomena refered to as reality sets in. Unfortunately there are those that choose to remain blind.
THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
You COULD be right -- but I think the gain in gold will far outstrip inflation.
If inflation averages 4-5% for the next decade, I think gold will be closer to $7,000 or even $10,000 an ounce.
Wow.... The thread started with a potential of $5000/oz. gold... Now predictions of $7-10K??? Hang on... going to be a heck of a ride....
Cheers, RickO
The rise in inflation is likely to become logarithmic before then. When this happens so will the price of gold.
Good book on a logarithmic future: "Future Shock"
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
NOT a prediction....just a possible scenario.
Gold went up 20-fold in the 1970's and 6-fold in the 2000's.....is a doubling or tripling in the next decade outlandish ?
I don't think so.
I find those kind of books INTERESTING but not really useful for investment advice or price predictions.
Focus on underlying supply and demand. Supply is getting tighter, demand is continuing to increase.
Many people around the world are "used" to paying about $2,000 an ounce for gold. It's been in that vicinity for over a decade. What price would really chill demand ? Probably a multiple of that.
The Federal Reserve and their member/owner banks is absolutely a "cartel".
We do not get to choose, or vote on, what they do and who they are.
And yet, they perform "central planning" of the economy via the setting of interest rates and other levers.
And, or course, they make a profit for themselves.
The most successful investor I ever personally knew said he got his investment tips from reading daily newspaper headlines.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said: “The most successful investor I ever personally knew said he got his investment tips from reading daily newspaper headlines.”
There is an incredible amount of information packed into the headlines, if you choose a wide range of them. It would not surprise me if there are a handful of people who can synthesize this information into an investment strategy.
PS: although there have undoubtedly been many attempts to date, it would be a great topic for a masters or PhD thesis in machine learning. In fact, just about anyone would is motivated and moderately competent in a language like Python could have a lot of fun with this!
$5,000 gold? I'll believe it when I see it. Not that it won't happen, of course.
I knew it would happen.
I don't think it's coming anytime soon. It's a long-term forecast.
It's like predicting $250 gold when gold was $35 in the 1960's.
Well that's really boring then. Not gonna sell many books or newsletters with that narrative. You gotta scare people. Make them afraid. Feed those fears and fatten their anxiety. Maybe even influence votes. You're not gonna control anyone with a boring supply/demand equation.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Depends on how old you are.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I have long expressed my belief that the price of gold is simply a result of the faith in the currency it is priced in. There is is little question, as revealed in even the most respected publications that confidence in the dollar is cracking. Currently in question is the dollar's role on the world stage. Next will be the dollar's role at home.
Gold is going no where but up.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The dollar is fine. The share of financial transactions in which the dollar is on at least 1 end of the trade has remained steady at about 85-90% for 30-plus years now.
You can read all the Doom & Gloom stuff you want....at the end of the day, NO OTHER COUNTRY can offere private property rights, rule of law, liquidity, large money markets, large bond markets, etc.....to anybody looking to move tens of billions in a blink.
Size matters. Just ask Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic.
_Size matters. Just ask Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic. _
The only part I disagree with is the above mentioned statement, for what I believe for the sake of a pun. The depositors at SVB were quite well heeled corporations and individuals so on a per customer basis they had all the size and then the niche Signature bank occupies, as well as, First Republic. This requires that those BANKS ARE ALLOWED TO FAIL and are not. Our government response is to BAIL THEM OUT, but this action by the FED and increased banking regulation along with MORE government BORROWING is adding up to be entirely too much.
FDIC is now backing away from First Republic and allowing it to be auctioned off. (no doubt with slight of hand backing from the US government AND TAXPAYERS PAY FOR IT. Increase banking costs, borrowing, falling stock prices caused by flights to cash, falling bond prices a result of more federal borrowing.
Go read Forbes; free article on "how the government is making the SVB banking crisis worse.
You want real change join "the convention of states" seeking amendments to the out of control federal government's poor fiscal policy and over reach into States.**** Amendment****s AS OUTLINED IN ARTICLE FIVE OF THE CONSTITUTION. Join and look for real change.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Yeah $5k is a stretch considering we can't even seem to hold onto $2k for more than a few days. That said, always bullish for the metal of kings. Forecast: North. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
The sharpest MBAs and CFAs and CPAs have trouble determining the financial status of banks (go back to 2008 if you doubt that) or financial institutions like GSEs. To ask well-heeled corporations or wealthy individuals to do this DD is an impossibility.
There was NO BAILOUT of FRB. The stockholders got wiped out. The preferred stock holders got wiped out. Even the bondholders got wiped out.
Show me who got bailed out and how......
I'll tell you what happened here, Soldi. You and others were given misinformation by an uneducated financial media -- and FWIW I've asked for equal time on some of them -- and told there was a "bailout" when there WAS NO BAILOUT.
Meanwhile, with slight-of-hand, Elizabeth Warren, Queen Of The Bailout Brigade Bashers, just gave the Teamsters a Bernie Madoff-like Ponzi Scheme called a pension plan $36,000,000,000.
No money will be paid back.
No executives at the Teamsters or CSPF will be fired.
Everything continues as before, including financial and grassroots support for the politicians who gave them the bailout.
But yes....let's focus on poor, corrupt, old First Republic Bank which probably won't cost the taxpayers a single dollar !!!
JPM bought them. The Big Bank Bashers had to eat crow as selling it to JPM cost less than having the FDIC do an auction over the next 2 years.
When gold was $35, nobody thought it would hit $200.
When gold was $200, nobody thought it would hit $800.
When gold was $250 in 2000, nobody thought it would go up to $1,800.
Gold may lay around $2,000 for years....it'll make the move higher in 2030 or 2035 that much more soaring.
But yes....let's focus on poor, corrupt, old First Republic Bank which probably won't cost the taxpayers a single dollar. THE BANK CATERED TO THE WEALTHY
It's naive to think this cost US citizens nothing.
It's naive to believe anything was solved in 2008 as congress grandstanding on TV feigned it was correcting the banking system and risk reward to the US economy.
Inflation affects my pockets of wealth and costs more in taxes PERIOD ITS NOT ALWAYS MONETARY It's naive to this that reckless fiscal policy can't bring about inflationary results.
I don't know where you live , but inflation and ultimately stagflation has taken hold of the US economy. 0% interest rates A SOLUTION TO 2006-2008 economic crisis. NOT
DO NOT ASSUME I watch mainstream news and believe in all of its summations. Although it's good fodder to study and see where it got 'some' nonsense from.
I refer you to Axios April 26, 2023. There you will find an explanation of who pays, when banks fail.
Go back to 2008 cracks me up! Go back to 1997, Greenspan and Long term capital management START there and see how through 23 years this evolved into what it is, with "crisis" along the way.
I knew you couldn't let that "pun" remark pass ego.
You want real change? article 5 of the constitution
Join the convention of states
The longer the launch pad and time gold is at around $2,000/oz. — the higher it will go. I want gold to stay where it is for a few more years in order to accumulate more.
@inkdiver.... However, those of us who accumulated many years ago, want it to go higher now.... Would really like to see it hit $3K this year.... Cheers, RickO
you hope you never see 5,000/gold unless your ok with paying 100 dollars for a loaf of bread
Gold can hit $5,000 in a decade very easily without inflation like you alude to.
4% return means gold will hit 5k in roughly 23 years.
Gold's movement will be no more linear than that of dollar destruction.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I think we hit $5,000 by early-2030's. 2035 at the latest.
Could be sooner.
Gold can go up without the dollar being destroyed -- and it won't be.
beg to differ but dollar destruction is what drives gold. Simple, check a chart of inflation vs. gold.
What do you believe drives the price of gold?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Lots of factors. Day-to-day, yes, the dollar influences gold. But over longer periods of time gold can move up based on supply/demand factors.
Gold down $45 after the 3.4% unemployment report. It does not like higher interest rates. Another buying opportunity.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I'm not sure if that changes the equation, though it could. Given the ups and downs
of the dollar over a myriad of decades, the 4% increase averages out, in spite of the
dollar's swings. But I may be all wet.
That could very well happen. I'd like to lift the painted veil of the future to find
out in advance.
I don’t want the world to implode for my gold to go to $5000
When Victor Davis Hansen talks about what’s been going on in San Francisco and other large cities, you begin to see that the implosion is already occurring.
Gold to $5,000 doesn’t depend on such an implosion as much as it depends on the total mismanagement of public and private resources that is being incentivized by really bad public policies combined with a Fed agenda that helps no one but the banks and large corporations.
I knew it would happen.
I will just price my gold at $5K/oz. now and it will sell when the price approaches that amount or investors 'believe' it will achieve that price.
Cheers, RickO
Looks to me with a neutral RSI and mining stocks drifting down, double tops and no break thru.
I think its time to sell gold bullion awhile. Pick it up at a later date.
Who knows......I don't know where the next $200 move in gold is, up or down....but I DO know where the next $1,000 move is.
The reason PMs are moving higher.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey