Overvalued Coins
DisneyFan
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You are a smart collector. You search out undervalued coins. When you are collecting a series, what do you do when the coin you need is available; yet, appears overvalued in price relative to third party grading services populations of other coins in the same series? We are not talking about coins that are overpriced when compared to price guides.
Overvalued Coins
This is a public poll: others will see what you voted for.
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I will wait, this has worked for and against me in the past.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
I always buy the coin. Another may not come along in my collecting lifetime. It does have to meet my goals though. PCGS slab, CAC sticker.
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If it meets my criteria, I buy the coin. Since I rarely sell anything, it will be with me for a long time. Quality is appreciated long after price is forgotten. Cheers, RickO
Other: Bargain with the seller. Try to get a better deal.
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I buy the right coin when it's available as long as I don't feel like it's being held hostage.
TPG populations are not married to extant populations, but are instead also influenced by what might be called "key-date syndrome" where the coins perceived as better in a series are often sent in with higher frequency. It may be argued that there are few, if any, undervalued or overvalued coins in a market populated with knowledgeable buyers and sellers and where there aren't extremes in availability.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Some coins come to market so rarely that you better get it at any opportunity.
There are a number of coins that come to mind that appear overpriced relative to their scarcity. If one is collecting those coins one just has to suck it up, as the demand for those coins is what drives the price, and In cases that come to mind, I haven't seen a decrease in demand even though collectors are much more aware of true populations than they were in the past. If you really want an HR Saint or an SVDB, neither of which is particularly scarce, there is little point in waiting.
Depends on the coin. If it is a once in a lifetime opportunity, buy. If it is semi-common and another example can be found within a reasonable time, pass.
"But seek ye first the kingdom of God and His righteousness and all these things shall be added unto you" Matthew 6:33. Young fellow suffering from Bust Half fever.
BHNC #AN-10
JRCS #1606
There are enough nice fairly priced coins in the marketplace that I never thought it was necessary to knowingly get buried in any specific coin.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
To build a good collection; you must pay up, sometimes, for what you want/need.
WHO KNOWS when that coin will be available, again, and at WHAT COST??
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I didn't do the poll, because none of the choices really fit my practice.
I am price-sensitive, but, for a coin I'm having a great deal of trouble finding, I'll pay 10%-20% over the guide price for the right coin.
I've learned that the pain of buying a substandard coin (however I define that in the particular case) lives far longer than the pain of paying marginally more than I would like to pay for the right coin.
If its a widget, wait.
If that particular coin is scarce, or even just scarce in the condition you are looking for, buy it.
Buy the coin right there and then. In my experience if you wait, someone else will want it as much as you and it will be gone. I don’t regret the coins I purchase, but do regret and kick myself in the ass for the one’s I didn’t buy!
I don't know what most of the coins I buy now or for the last 10 years are actually worth because there is literally almost never a prior sale in a specific or even near quality. In some instances, I'm not aware of a public sale for the coin as a date/denomination or if there is one, it's not relevant having sold too long ago.
I just pay what I consider to be "reasonable" though I will pay a higher price effectively paying for potential future appreciation (up to a point) if I want the coin badly enough.
Generically though since I don't buy US coinage, have very narrow interests in world coinage, and never buy on impulse, I'd never pay current market price of any "meaningful" amount if I think the coin is "noticeably" overvalued for its collectible attributes.
Buy it if I can otherwise may have to wait years and years before I see another. I would over pay if need be if I have been waiting years to locate that perfect very rare coin for my set. I don't sell at all anymore so it would be with me for a long time.
NFL: Buffalo Bills & Green Bay Packers
If I’m buying for a set I buy what I find that meets a minimum criteria and use that to upgrade when better presets it’s self. If I am buying for type or fancy it has to be all there
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
I like to acquire eye appealing coins and I'm competing with others who prioritize this factor. If I love the coin, I'm willing to pay the freight without an intent to realize appreciation. I may ultimately lose whenever that time comes to sell, but I've had a lot of priceless enjoyment along the way.
In this rising market, remember the price guide is a trailing indicator for an average for the grade coin. If you want a coin that is above average (in terms of color, strike, what have you), then it isn't unreasonable to pay a premium.
Regarding series collecting, how long is your collecting horizon? Certainly, a particular date will come available again but who knows what the price will be then in these inflationary times.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Buy the coin, assuming that it is a coin that is infrequently available in the desired grade and it meets all criteria.
If you’ve wait a few years for a certain specimen to come along , it finally does, it would be foolish to pass because it’s 10% too high. If you knew another would be available in a couple months that would be a different story.
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I am not exactly sure what you are asking, but personally I go through the following process when bidding on coins.
I look in several price guides. I look up several auction records. I determine certified populations and number of auction appearances. I do an analysis of how often the coin is available in the exact grade I want. Then I grade the coin in consideration and determine the exact price I feel THIS coin is worth. (Buyers fees included). Sometimes I end up 50% or more higher than prices are reflected; goes the other way too. Then I stand firm because either I have done due diligence or there will always be another coin. James
It all comes down to whether the buyer is predominantly treating the purchase as (mostly) an alternative to consumption or a quasi "investment".
If the first, it doesn't matter. I generally treat my purchases this way but over time as the cumulative value of my collection has increased, less so or not entirely. There is a limit to how much life effort I am willing to trade for my collection.
If the second, I've been of the opinion for a long time that the coin price level is (heavily) inflated by external financial and economic conditions but that's beyond the scope of this thread. Most collectors have no clue about that or for those who do, it doesn't seem to make any difference in the aggregate. I don't believe most collectors like the coins they buy enough to lose a substantial proportion of their outlay if it's "material" to them.
Gosh - this is a tough one. It depends. How long have I been looking, and how overpriced is it?
I am a newer collector (started April 2020), and I primarily focus on U.S. Half Cents and Type Coins. Early copper is my favorite.
Buy the coin.
This is a tough one. My answer is based upon finding a prime example and the owner is sticking to his price. If you want an outstanding coin, you have to be willing to pay for it. Don’t assume it’ll still be around in a couple of months.
From my past experiences quality is never cheap, buy the coin as soon as it's available.
A number of posts seem to have missed the point. If most of us feel that a coin is simply overpriced, our answer would be different, particularly if the coin isn't very scarce.
Buy the coin as long as I can manage it. Hate to juggle accounts and CC but if I can get it and want it bad enough 😁
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
I let my raw intuition decide. After 22 years collecting, something inside tells me whether the coin is right to buy or not. Price is part of it, but so is the eye appeal and scarcity of the coin. When it blends closely...doesn't have to be perfect, you buy it.
I generally walk.
More of a type set collector.
A little more flexibility
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If I don’t like the price I pass. It’s that simple.
My current registry sets:
20th Century Type Set
Virtual DANSCO 7070
Slabbed IHC set - Missing the Anacs Slabbed coins
If it’s a tough coin, has nice eye appeal and it’s affordable, I’d just buy the coin.
If it’s common and easy to find later, I’ll wait.
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Thank you everybody for participating in this survey. : )
To clarify further, I'll give you an example of a "Bad Boy." I've mentioned this coin before. There are plenty of other overvalued coins like this.
1913-S Barber Dime 29+1 in MS64 $2,350 78 total MS64-MS67 population (PCGS Numbers)
There are 24 Barber dimes with total MS64-MS67 populations ranging from 31 to 77 for less money. Six for $1,000 or less.
Do you have pics? Want to know a good barometer of rarity? Look at how many have sold at Heritage for the grade. The 1913-S Barber Dime does NOT come around in MS64 often. If it love the coin, you ought to just buy it. Last coin was 10.18. Before that 9.16.
With total total MS64-MS67 populations ranging from 31 to 77, none of these coins come around often. Yet they are less money than the 1913-S.
It all depends upon how far along you are. If you are near the end of the set, and this coin fills the slot well, buy it if the perceived premium is not ridiculous. If it’s one of the first coins you are buying for the set, I’d wait or pass. You might not have enough experience to make an informed decision.
Sometimes coins seem to be more common than they really are. Mintages are not that important. It’s the number of survivors that counts. Condition and eye appeal are important too. Finding an attractive example of a coin that often comes ugly is a good reason to pull the trigger.
I'd describe your example as moderately scarce under US collecting but relatively common by mine. It isn't a coin that I'd expect to be difficult to buy in the sense that I'd have to wait long to find one good enough to meet my criteria. If an AU-58 sells for less than $1000, I'd buy it over an MS-64 for about one-third of the price if I liked it enough.
I suspect these sell more often than both of you think. Most collectors just don't know where it is sold. If the average holding period is 10 years and there are actually 31 available, it will sell on average every four months. If 77, one will be available about every two months. Somewhat less depending upon number of duplicates.
That's not hard to buy.
My series has been overvalued for decades and now the prices are softening due to the inflation crunch, I presume. CC gsa's are dropping quite substantially. Now would be a good time to add if you are looking for 63's and 64's. 65's and up are holding their own so far.
bob
The question implies that a coin has come along that is "the one". Something about this one is rare, hard to get, exceptional in some way. And most likely, others want it too for the same reason. Thus 'market price' is no longer applicable, because if it were, you'd just go buy a similar competitor instead.
So to answer, 'BUY THE COIN'
When a coin that does not come around that often, does, I will buy it.
As @ricko said:
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...
I did not answer the poll because it depends on which collection we're considering... For my Type Set, I'd wait. There are plenty of nice AU type pieces extant that I dont feel the need to overpay for something... ie, I've been waiting for some time for an 1859 IHC or a nice fully struck 1917 T1 SLQ... However, I take a different tack with my Large Cent accumulation. If I find a coin with nice surfaces and color, regardless of grade (although I tend towards VF to AU pieces) I'll pay "strongly" as compared to price guides... but not "stupidly"... if that makes sense... the likelihood of finding early copper that's not corroded, damaged, or otherwise messed with plays a big roll here. If I waited for prices to come down, I'd not have any coins in my "collection"...
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I have never purchased a coin that I thought was overpriced. Nobody ever has. The opinion of others, including price guides, is frequently different than my opinion.....
I've been wrong before too.
I have purchased coin at auction that were overpriced, and I've had regrets about what I paid. Sill I enjoy the coin, and in recent years I've seen asking prices on them for more than I paid for coins I didn't like as well. Of course "asking prices" is one thing. What it actually sells for is another.
If I feel a coin is overpriced for what it is then I pass on it. If I see an overpriced coin that I think is exceptional then I will overpay for it. Quality is always easier to sell later on down the road.
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I’ve done this several times with 1812 halves. Most dealers lump this date in with 1810-1814 prices and they should be priced quite a bit lower.
I’ve seen several I like at approximately 1.5x-2x what I was willing to pay. I’ve waited and one always comes around that’s more fairly priced.
BHNC #248 … 130 and counting.
No way to know the future, may as well buy it while you know you can.
Collector, occasional seller
I wish I could say that 😂. I’ve bought some coins that were overpriced dogs and I just had to have it🙃
Got a dang Tupperware tub half full. I still can’t understand why I bought some of the junk I did 😁
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
Lots of gray area here. If it's a coin you really want, buy it...price is always subjective and ever changing. If you can't comfortably afford a coin, then wait.
Agree. I have done both. Paid to much and waited depending on the particulars. No answer for me.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=wwmUMvhy-lY - Pink Me And Bobby McGee
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https://youtube.com/watch?v=D0FPxuQv2ns - Ruby Starr (from 'Go Jim Dandy') Maybe I'm Amazed
RLJ 1958 - 2023
I have been a USM binge buyer. Now that i finally realize this stuff doesn't really hold their value, I switched to selling them and refocusing on coins that have a better chance of not only retaining the initial purchase price but actually increase their value. I'm starting to feel like the blind squirrel that finally found a nut.
USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
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To clarify, nobody ever buys a coin they think is overpriced. At the moment, it's worth more to them than the money........ or they wouldn't do the deal. Later on, when they start looking up values, the market changes, or they try to sell it they sometimes wish they had made a different decision.
I just think it's odd that people consider some parts of the market "overpriced" or "undervalued". Such considerations are just opinions, and if the coins are selling for a certain price, that's what they're currently worth. Period. You may predict the market will swing one way or another, perceive a lack of support for the current prices, or hold a belief that the prices will soon rise, but such thoughts are generally emotionally driven and in reality, nothing more than speculation.
Sometimes I pay much more than "price guides". In retrospect, sometimes it was a great idea and sometimes it was a bad idea - just like everything else in life.
The recent Fed Ex lost coin debacle came to mind.
Super rare die marriage that didn't seem to carry a huge premium (correct me if I am wrong)?
I would pay up.
Coin maybe lost for another 100+ years without collector intervention.
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