Simple prediction thread: Where will gold and silver prices be in one year?
Manorcourtman
Posts: 8,028 ✭✭✭✭✭
Please no commentary or politics. Where do you see gold and silver prices one year from now? I will revive the thread next fall to see who was correct! I have no prediction!! What say you????
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Ok, just for the fun of it;
Gold. -1650
Silver-17
Please no commentary or politics.
Hmmm,
Baring both of those...
GLD 1850
SLV 23.32
gold - > $2350
silver - > $40
Of course we're talking spot prices. I expect premiums for physical products to continue to rise until futures contracts are no longer used to set a spot price or until physical prices no longer even consider spot price as a basis. Fact is, they are two completely different products/markets.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Gold higher
Gutter lower (premiums included)
RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Gold....$1,909.55
Silver...$19.75
Gold $1800
Silver: $20
--Severian the Lame
Gold - $1505
Silver - $17.10
The trend for prices looks down.
The trend for premiums looks up.
I sure wish prices and premiums would dropped so I could buy some!
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
Hope to be wrong, but....$1,677.77 gold. $18.77 silver.
Gold $1,900
Silver $26.00
I knew it would happen.
Gold - $1950
Silver - $28.50
Cheers, RickO
Gold : $2760.
Silver: $85.
That’s U.S Mint pricing ( my prediction on their per ounce charge)
Gold: $2500
Silver: $25
Au $1,900
Ag $25
If half the gold predictions come true I'm selling!!
much, much higher if Wall St. blows itself up again with Credit Default Swaps.
Wall Street Banks Are Doubling Down on Risk by Selling CDS's on their Risky Derivatives Counterparties
"But the new research report from OFR ignites the hair-raising question of how asleep at the switch are the members of the Financial Stability Oversight Council to have allowed a worse derivatives mess to exist today than existed in 2008 when Wall Street banks blew themselves up and required the largest bailouts from the taxpayer and the Fed in global banking history."
"The research paper does not provide the names of the banks it studied. But it doesn’t have to. We know from the report published quarterly by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency that the bank holding companies of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley hold more than 80 percent of all derivatives held at all banks in the U.S. today."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Gold $3200.
Silver $65.20
Go big or go home!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A year from now, we will still be in a recession. Premiums will go up with inflation because that’s where sellers get to recoup their increased costs.
Gold: $1700
Silver: 18.25
Gold $1880
Silver $23
$2,653.27
$37.42
Successful transactions with: Lakesammman, jimineez1, Flackthat, PerryHall, bidask, bccox, TwistedArrow1962, free_spirit, alexerca, scooter25, FHC, tnspro, mcarney1173, moursund, and SurfinxHI (6 times)
Gold 1350
Silver 13.50
Massive double top ....
This thread is asking for forecasts for one year out but there is a recurring pattern of manias completely retracing across asset markets. I can't confirm it's happened it every instance but it's not atypical. As one example, Japan's stock market (Nikkei Dow) fell below the 1982 low in 2008. That's 26 years of going nowhere, excluding FX rates (for foreign holders) and the pitiful dividend yield.
1980 silver mania retraced 93% to the double 1999/2001 lows. Gold didn't make it that far but retraced most of the gains (depends upon where someone considers the starting point).
The 2011 silver bubble peak hasn't retraced below the October 2008 starting point of $8.39 (yet) but it's not far fetched either. It wasn't that far away at the 2020 lows.
As for the spread between "paper" and physical, all it takes is extended elevated unemployment to turn physical holders into net sellers from net buyers to shrink premiums back to pre-2020.
We predict
Gold $1999.95
Silver $26.95
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
$81.27 per ounce for silver
Gold: $1925
Silver: 24.50
Physical holders do not fall into a category where maintaining their stack depends on their employment status. Most stacks are built with disposable excess, not life savings. Also, extended elevated unemployment is exactly what the FED is attempting to achieve with high interest rates (actually the overnight FED funds rate strictly between banks is the only rate they have direct control over) in order to tame demand/spending/inflation.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
A gram or an ounce of gold buys essentially the same amount of crude oil today as it has at any time over the past seven decades.
Apparently oil drives more than just machinery. The question is "where will oil be in one year?"
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I know what you believe. I also know that people buy metals with discretionary income. None of this contradicts what I told you,
You write as if once these people buy their metals, they can hold on to "forever" regardless of the circumstances. Once again, it's based upon the unsubstantiated belief that these people are disproportionately "strong hands" where they can handle extended economic adversity.
At the margin which is all that is required to turn net buying into net selling, I'm telling you enough of them cannot because there is no evidence that most of these people are affluent enough. Why would anyone believe they are, other than because it suits their personal preference for future increasing metal prices?
When I state "extended unemployment", I also mean many of them becoming permanently unemployed or underemployed. That's the risk millions faced in 2009 but they were bailed out by a fake economy (the one we have now) and a continuation of the asset and credit mania. The typical "metal bug" is "middle age" and if they lose their job in a 2009 type job market with no equivalent recovery (which is what the economy actually faces), many will not find another one at anywhere near comparable pay, if at all.
Virtually no one (including you) seems to grasp the unprecedented extent and nature of this mania. Because if you did, you wouldn't have written these replies. We're talking about the greatest asset, credit, and debt mania in the history of human civilization and it's not even close. We're near an economic and credit cycle peak, yet the actual fundamentals are mediocre to awful.
You also ignore the psychological element. Not everyone is willing to hold or will hold if and when prices decline substantially. It's the combination of loss aversion creating voluntary selling followed by forced selling that leads to the outcome I told you. It's the fear of future forced selling at lower prices that leads market participants (in all asset classes) to sell now instead of later.
Apparently you don't. I not only grasp your comment below, I believe it to the fullest. Credit and derivatives are in the process of destroying our economy and our life style. I have preached this sermon on this forum since the policy makers in 2008 failed to fix the problems. The can they are kicking has reached the end of the road. "Hogwash" many say, "our economy is too big to fail." Well all I can say at the moment is to take a good look at Britain.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
easy ..... Silver $53.00/oz. and gold $ 2454.00 feds are going after the metal fixers. Great info on this many bank and investment groups will be fined and charged with bank CEOs going to jail. The fixers will turn on others and eat their young. ..Paper Silver will be called in for physical silver and guess what ... IT DOES NOT EXIST !!!! Member turn on each other as this develops into an international issue with bank CEOs being hung in foreign countries. The investigation was started 8 months ago and billions in fines will be assessed. Then silver hoarders will be their just due....
If you understand my position, then how do you conclude that metal holders are in the financial position you infer in your posts?
Seems like we are looking at the same or similar data yet coming to the opposite conclusion.
I agree the US economy isn't "too big to fail", even though I don't see it as necessarily imminent. I believe the credit cycle turned in 2020 with the initial peak in rates coming up relatively soon, maybe early to mid-next year. In this cycle of the bear market, I expect the worst to occur in the next phase of the run up in rates, maybe around 2024. (This should be a multi-decade bear market, longer than 1966-1982.) However, I agree that any "surprises" will be to the downside.
These people (metal holders) aren't disproportionately that well off. There is no reason to believe they are wealthy because hardly any wealthy people bother with physical silver. If they did in any noticeable proportion, the price would be much higher right now and would have been earlier.
A derivative "blow up" (systemic failure) doesn't lead to your implied outcome, as it's a deflationary credit collapse where there is no direct connection to physical gold and silver increasing while everything else collapses. It "can" happen but It's not a "given" especially for silver precisely because current metal holders are almost certainly nowhere near as financially stable as you believe.
At best, there is every reason to believe they are disproportionately part of the moderately well-off "mass affluent" middle-class, a noticeable minority not even that.
I guess you must not have heard about the mega billionaire whale that recently announced to the world that she was fixin to buy 117 million ASEs? It was all over the youtube newz (conspiracy) circuit. lol
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
You're describing a complete fantasy, even as your last sentence confirms my prior long held view, that true believers believe they have supposedly been cheated out of their supposed just reward.
prior long held view, that true believers believe they have supposedly been cheated out of their supposed just reward.
The typical "metal bug" is "middle age" and if they lose their job in a 2009 type job market with no equivalent recovery (which is what the economy actually faces), many will not find another one at anywhere near comparable pay, if at all.
Virtually no one (including you) seems to grasp the unprecedented extent and nature of this mania.
While I might agree with some of your comments regarding the economy, how is it that you seem to know so much about "metal bugs"? Based on my own experience, none of your observations about pm investors is even close to the mark.
A derivative "blow up" (systemic failure) doesn't lead to your implied outcome, as it's a deflationary credit collapse where there is no direct connection to physical gold and silver increasing while everything else collapses. It "can" happen but It's not a "given" especially for silver precisely because current metal holders are almost certainly nowhere near as financially stable as you believe.
A systemic failure of the financial system does have a direct impact on paper "assets", including cash - and that's entirely the point. Physical gold and silver are tangible assets, and the simple fact is that whether or not you are financially stable - you are at least marginally better off with precious metals under those circumstances than not.
The only just reward from any of this would be the return of an honest financial system. Good luck with that.
I knew it would happen.
Just a reminder (in the FWIW department): it took years for gold to peak after the 2007-08 market collapse.
In the not so distant past,
Gold was near $2,000 and Silver was near $50 for a GSR of about 40/1.
By those standards, paper Silver is underpriced right now and the current premium to spot reflects that.
I will buy silver if I can find it near spot but it's not easy to find.
some foks just can't help themselves.
Another would-be interesting thread derailed by off-topic chit chat. Always the same voices over and over and over..
If someone thinks that pm prices will be at a certain level a year from now, I find it more interesting to know why they think so, and I like to hear the nuances in their reasoning. That's interesting. Spouting off two data points is not.
Unless you just like to complain, and it should be noted that your post is just as derailing as any other.
I knew it would happen.
Why don't we allow manorcourtman to manage his own thread if he wishes. He is more than capable.
To move the discussion back towards the numbers, here's where we stand as a group:
GOLD
Range of predictions: 1350 - 3200
Average(mean): 1983
Standard Deviation: 442
SILVER
Range of predictions: 13.5 - 65.20
Average(mean): 23.91
Standard Deviation: 11.87
So, we're expecting roughly a 20 % increase in the price of gold, and a bit more (23 %) for silver. The medians are somewhat lower than the means; the outliers on the upside have pulled up the averages.
Only a few members expect a significant decline in gold or silver.
You mean like the very common belief in price suppression conspiracies which supposedly keep metal prices from being a lot higher than the price supposedly should be now and the last multiple decades?
It's complete nonsense. In a country like the US, no one except die hard metal holders or coin collectors care about the price of silver and it doesn't even enter into the thoughts of the overwhelming majority of the population. Somewhat more in some countries but nothing like on this forum. I believe the financial and political establishment cares about the price of gold but couldn't care less about silver prices either. It's completely irrelevant to them.
Another one is the lopsided belief in impending hyperinflation or something like it. The much higher immediate prospect of a deflationary financial collapse sure isn't evident in "metal bug" views, including your posts.
I'm aware of everything in your quote I am extracting. It's not like you are telling me anything new.
The whole purpose of my last few replies was to dispute the claim that metal holders are in a position to keep bid-ask spreads and premiums from declining to more "normal" levels.
I'm well aware that all paper assets (with somewhat of a difference for currency notes) are just someone else's debt and subject to default.
Finally, I'm well aware that my views are also unpopular because I express the opinion that most people are going to end up poorer or a lot poorer in the future.
Heh, haven't you heard. JPM is artificially keeping prices low so they can buy it ALL. Once the have all the gutter they will then proceed to rule the universe. Some people will believe anything. Especially because they read about it on the internet. Crazy freakin world! LOL!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
You mean like the very common belief in price suppression conspiracies which supposedly keep metal prices from being a lot higher than the price supposedly should be now and the last multiple decades?
You deny that JPM has been convicted of price suppression in the silver market? Let's start there in the discussion on price suppression and then we can talk about the whys & wherefores.
Another one is the lopsided belief in impending hyperinflation or something like it. The much higher immediate prospect of a deflationary financial collapse sure isn't evident in "metal bug" views, including your posts.
There absolutely is a significant chance of an immediate deflationary collapse, and the only way that it can be prevented at this point is by having the central banks of the world pump out trillions of new dollars and other fiat currencies. Massive money creation doesn't CAUSE hyperinflation, but the psychological effects and dramatic loss of purchasing power in the fiat currencies of the world will contribute to what very well could become hyperinflation in the West.
Again, I believe that you have a misconception about pm stackers. The fact that silver is part of the stacker repertoire has zero to do with a blind belief that silver is some kind of panacea, and more about the fact that silver has been used as money and a medium of exchange for millenia. A few years of market manipulation by JPM doesn't change that.
The whole purpose of my last few replies was to dispute the claim that metal holders are in a position to keep bid-ask spreads and premiums from declining to more "normal" levels.
That's a claim I'm not aware of. Who's saying that?
Finally, I'm well aware that my views are also unpopular because I express the opinion that most people are going to end up poorer or a lot poorer in the future.
Most people are going to end up poorer because they got sucked into believing that the markets are just fine and that the Federal Reserve has their backs and won't let the stock market fall. Problem is, it's not about the stock market. It's the debt market that isn't sustainable. In a major way. Creating money like crazy while raising interest rates is completely toxic to nearly everyone, except for the central bankers.
I knew it would happen.
@jmski52: did JPM get convicted of suppressing prices or manipulating prices?
There’s a big difference.
According to Reuters:
“Traders would place orders on one side of the market which they never intended to execute, to create a false impression of buy or sell interest that would raise or depress prices”
They created short term distortions in order to generate trading gains. This is illegal and it blemishes their reputation, but it is not suppressing prices.
Funny how it results in supressed prices. Is not that the result intended?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb: can you point to any concrete evidence that JPM activity suppressed prices?
(I think their activities led to short term distortions--both up and down--but not suppression)