"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Some market participants spoof ( or distort) prices in order to create temporary differences between current price and fair market. They take advantage of this to make trading profits. It makes no difference whatsoever if they distort up or distort down.
Suppression would mean to try to keep the price of something down. The most common example might be governments trying to keep the value of their currency down in order to gain trade advantages.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Another one is the lopsided belief in impending hyperinflation or something like it. The much higher immediate prospect of a deflationary financial collapse sure isn't evident in "metal bug" views, including your posts.
Given that inflation is already an out-of-control dumpster fire, I'd like to see the evidence supporting a deflationary collapse. Either way, I wouldn't want to be the party in power next year.
@conrad99 said:
Just a reminder (in the FWIW department): it took years for gold to peak after the 2007-08 market collapse.
gold also was quickest asset to recover from 08 crisis
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@conrad99 said:
Just a reminder (in the FWIW department): it took years for gold to peak after the 2007-08 market collapse.
gold also was quickest asset to recover from 08 crisis
Perhaps, but it didn't last very long, while other major assets continued to accelerate, gold took a nose dive after 2011 from which it still has not recovered.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
"gold also was quickest asset to recover from 08 crisis"
Perhaps, but it didn't last very long, while other major assets continued to accelerate, gold took a nose dive after 2011 from which it still has not recovered.
As I recall, having lived through it, precious metals recovered inside of a year and rallied strongly into 2011,
The stock market was anemic for 3 years until they decided to start handing out free money to Wall Street in a big way. Those major assets you mention wouldn't have gotten off the ground if the Fed hadn't started bailing out the banks and financial institutions willy nilly. Frankly, most of their upper managements should have been prosecuted for fraud and financial malfeasance instead.
Que Sera Sera. The chickens are coming home to roost once again.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I think we will hit highs around $2100 and $30 sometime this year, but I expect a lot of price fluctuations just like the past 3 years. A lot of tailwinds with Chinese Near Year pent up demand, war related impacts, likely US debt ceiling debacle, eventual stagflation, real purchasing power dropping in spite of so-called strong dollar, the Fed eventually slowing their rate of QT, and stopping the rate increases.
If I knew the answer to the price of silver by year end, I'd make sure that I was rich by then.
If you knew silver was going to be the same price on Dec 31 that it is now, how would you play it?
like any other play: buy low, sell higher. Numerous opportunities in a 12 month period. Same with the bigger cryptos.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@conrad99 said:
Just a reminder (in the FWIW department): it took years for gold to peak after the 2007-08 market collapse.
gold also was quickest asset to recover from 08 crisis
Perhaps, but it didn't last very long, while other major assets continued to accelerate, gold took a nose dive after 2011 from which it still has not recovered.
Gold WAS the quickest asset to recover from the 2008 crash (-34% in 2 months). It never should have crashed in the first place but the bankers sold their profitable gold positions to pay off losing positions in CDS. MBS, and stocks. It took all of 3-4 months to recover nearly all the 2008 gold drop. Gold was basically fully recovered in March 2009 as the stock market was just hitting its ultimate low (-54% drop). Gold took a total of 11 months to make new all time highs.....that rally continued on for another 2 yrs. Compare that to the Dow which did nothing from 2000-2013...flat. It took 5 years for the Dow to recover from the 2008 crash and surpass the 2007 highs. So stocks had 13 yrs of going nowhere followed by 10 yrs of going somewhere. And as far as gold "not yet" recovering from the 2011 crash....it already did that in 2020 with a new all time high. Gold's 12 yr chart looks like it's wound up to go higher. Gold continually has to fight the head winds of $480 TRILLION in world interest rate derivatives, which help determine money flows and "influence" interest rates. And the $600 BILL in gold derivatives don't help either. If and when those blow up, nothing should keep gold down short of confiscation.
I like the look of the 12 year gold chart. It certainly isn't a double top as some have suggested. Looks more like an "OPA -Loompa" cup with handle or inverted Head and Shoulders. If either of those patterns plays out, then gold projects to $3000 once $2100 is strongly broken. It would take pushing gold under $1440 to fail the H&S/C w/H patterns. We shall see.
The silver chart is even more surprising having a 43 year "OPA" cup w/handle....and a projection of $95 should silver break through $50 again. Who knows? As far as the $8.40 level being revisited to re-test the 2008 lows per WW? I don't currently buy that but concede it's certainly possible.
That $8.40 silver spot level was a high on the way up in April 2004 and back-tested during the Oct 2008 low. The March 2020 pandemic crash took silver to $11.64....the very bottom of a 12 yr down channel. Besides that, silver did a nice 5 waves down (or ABC) from 2011 to 2020 much the way oil did from 2008-2020. Both of them should require strong, multi-year bounces approaching previous all time highs before they're done retracing the majority of those 10-12 yr drops. I suspect oil headed to $150+ again and silver to $49+ are much more likely from here than revisiting the March 2020 lows again. If silver is headed below $8.40 again....then WTIC crude would have to fall under $15-$20/BL again. Seems unlikely in today's "oil and energy world" with fossil fuels under fire vs renewables. I do think the stock market will take out the March 2020 lows again (Dow 18K or lower) on a 5-10 yr major shakeout whenever that eventually comes.
A 9 year decline in silver probably needs a 4.5-5.5 yr rise to offset the previous fall ending in March 2020. Silver still needs a C leg higher even if it is still in a long term bear market. Matching the first leg up of +$18 during 2020 gets silver to $44 on the next break out. All that fits with the stag-flationary, banking crisis with dwindling faith in govts and currencies, war cycle, and a 4th turning generational / revolutionary period still playing out until 2026-2033. That's probably the ideal environment for gold....and possibly silver as well. Sort of mix of the second half of the 1970s and early 1930's. No one currently alive has ever traded such a market. It will be a shock to many of the 30 to 50 yr olds when it comes whose only enduring market reality is 1982-2022. Gold and silver seem to like 8-11 yr rallies. It's a still a long ways from getting to that point (ie 2024-2028). I lean towards 2023 remaining sort of a another consolidation year for the PMs.....with the next major move occurring from 2024-2028.
Gold continually has to fight the head winds of $480 TRILLION in world interest rate derivatives, which help determine money flows and "influence" interest rates. And the $600 BILL in gold derivatives don't help either.
It never ceases to amaze me that some people put their trust into a system that is built on imaginary paper assets.
If silver is headed below $8.40 again....then WTIC crude would have to fall under $15-$20/BL again. Seems unlikely in today's "oil and energy world" with fossil fuels under fire vs renewables.
Anyone who thinks that China and India are about to go "green" while China is building a couple coal plants a week - is completely delusional. Crude has nowhere to go but up long term.
The fact that silver is both a monetary asset and an industrial commodity whose utility continues to increase isn't going to change anytime soon either. We'll probably continue to see periodic supply shortages and historically high premiums for retail silver. JPM & Co. can manipulate it all they want without repercussion, but I'm not hearing of any big, new sources.
And gold? When you talk about gold, you are talking about the inverse relationship that gold has against all fiats - all of which are being keyboarded into existence out of control while the Fed rolls over the debt at higher interest rates. The "developing" countries that can't afford higher interest payments on their dollar-denominated loans are ripe for a default on their debt. Who knows what happens then? Who holds all of that foreign debt? Which Western banks?
The FACT that the US Dollar is losing favor internationally only compounds the effect. The people responsible for weaponizing the SWIFT system are out of their minds and should be institutionalized. The main effect of that idiotic ploy has been to help crystalize opposition to the dollar as the world's reserve currency, and many of those dollars are now headed home because they are being phased out where ever possible. The trust has been destroyed.
Houston, we have a problem. Got gold? Silver?
And coho wonders why I don't like paper! sheesh.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
One other view of PMs over the past 20+ years.....the relationships between the 55, 89, and 144 month simple moving averages. These levels seem to bracket gold and the SM pretty well over this period. As long as the 55>89>144 mma then everything is flying up in auto-pilot. The SM has had the alignment since 2012-2014 with the Naz leading the way. Gold didn't regain that alignment until mid-2019. Silver and Oil haven't even gotten back yet....not surprising since they are the "whipsaw wonders " of the commodity markets.
Gold's action was well bracketed in steps from 2013 to 2019 as it first stepped down on each MMA and then stepped back on them for the way up. The 55 and 89 define the main action. They tend to be good points for retraces in trending markets (like 2008 and 2020). The 144 MMA is the death star. Lose that for any length of time and it's "curtains." Current gold 144 MMA at $1480....another reason that a dip under $1440 brings gold back into that 2013-2019 quagmire yet again. While not included in this discussion the 34 mma was the canary in the coal mine in April 2013 when gold crashed through the $1522 support level on the 4th try....and it held well during the 2003-2011 up trend (currently at $1827). It took gold on the 4th try in 2008/2009 to get past the $1033 point for good.. Gold has taken 3 shots so far at the $2050-2075 level. It took 4 tries to get under $1680 the past 3 yrs, only managing 2 months under that level while the 55 mma held....then a sharp reversal. For now it looks like the failed 4 attempts to go low are now trumped by the 3 attempts to go high. The $1680-$2050 consolidation continues.
30% rally in paper in the last 2 months.....how much for physical?
100% risk reduction is more important than a few percentage points in gain.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
30% rally in paper in the last 2 months.....how much for physical?
100% risk reduction is more important than a few percentage points in gain.
The 8 week, +$240 rally in spot gold was mostly reflected in the physical price received when selling. I get the daily buy/sell gold coin and bullion spreads from Heritage. Their pre-1933 US gold coin "bullion" buy/sell spreads have been pretty consistent around the 4-5% range despite the price of gold. I suspect their buy/sell spread on bullion is the same or lower.
How much are SLV or GLD shares worth if your brokerage goes bust, sold your shares to someone else along the way, or just never bought them? (paging Bernie M.)......or the bullion banks that "manage" those ETF's go bust?.....or it's found out that there is a large shortage of available Silver or Gold to back those paper trust shares? Oops. Musical chairs time. That paper can go to "zero" if you're in the "wrong" paper fund when everyone is looking for a "physical seat" to cover their paper bets. And you won't get any heads up before that happens.
Y'all complain yer dollars are losing. So make more of them. Oh wait, yer all scared. Stop being weak and scared. I aint scared. Yup, not the same....winners and losers.
@roadrunner said:
Gold WAS the quickest asset to recover from the 2008 crash (-34% in 2 months).
No, corporate bonds recovered faster.
It never should have crashed in the first place but the bankers sold their profitable gold positions to pay off losing positions in CDS. MBS, and stocks.
Bankers don't hold ANY gold positions, profitable or not. Regulators don't allow it. Gold as a % of Tier 1 Equity Capital for the 10 largest banks is under 0.5%.
It took all of 3-4 months to recover nearly all the 2008 gold drop. Gold was basically fully recovered in March 2009 as the stock market was just hitting its ultimate low (-54% drop). Gold took a total of 11 months to make new all time highs.....that rally continued on for another 2 yrs.
Gold rallied as the U.S. and European debt crises spiralled out of control into late-2011. Gold then fell for 8 years.
Compare that to the Dow which did nothing from 2000-2013...flat. It took 5 years for the Dow to recover from the 2008 crash and surpass the 2007 highs. So stocks had 13 yrs of going nowhere followed by 10 yrs of going somewhere.
The S&P 500 is the appropriate index. It eaked out nice returns with dividends reinvested.
And as far as gold "not yet" recovering from the 2011 crash....it already did that in 2020 with a new all time high. Gold's 12 yr chart looks like it's wound up to go higher. Gold continually has to fight the head winds of $480 TRILLION in world interest rate derivatives, which help determine money flows and "influence" interest rates. And the $600 BILL in gold derivatives don't help either. If and when those blow up, nothing should keep gold down short of confiscation.
They are net neutrals. They aren't bullish or bearish for prices. Derivatives don't influence money flows, the Fed and Central Banks do.
FWIW, RR, I am bullish like you longer-term on the price of gold. I believe growing per-capita consumption in India and other countries will absorb supply and push the price higher.
I look for $2,500 within 1-2 years, $3,000 by 2027-30, and $5,000 by 2035.
$25 Gutter? It didn't make it. In fact I have it down for the year. Pretty much the only asset on planet earth that didn't soar, excluding Pd, Pt, Corn, and Nat gas. LOL
P.S. You are correct, there will be plenty of conspiracies as to why. You can't make this C$@! up. CRZY WRLD!
He's sitting on a loss position in physical silver because he apparently got suckered by a rising price, and now he harbors a personal grudge against silver. Any and every investor should know that a chunk of metal doesn't take things personally.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
He's sitting on a loss position in physical silver because he apparently got suckered by a rising price, and now he harbors a personal grudge against silver. Any and every investor should know that a chunk of metal doesn't take things personally.
My DCA on physical gutter is sub $20/ozt. If you factor in decades of inflation well it certainly wasn't the brightest move I ever made but still not YET a loss. That said the money parked there would have done much better just about anywhere else. Cripes, hoarding dingleberries would have been a better investment. The majority of my gutter dealings these days is in the SLV, I haven't bought physical gutter for quite some time. Only a few green boxes, about $1000FV 90% junk and a couple hundred ozt of miscellaneous govt issued rounds remain. I continue to dump it as I find someone dumb enough to buy it. THKS!
Comments
distortions vs. suppression? LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb
Please elaborate. Or, critique my statement:
Some market participants spoof ( or distort) prices in order to create temporary differences between current price and fair market. They take advantage of this to make trading profits. It makes no difference whatsoever if they distort up or distort down.
Suppression would mean to try to keep the price of something down. The most common example might be governments trying to keep the value of their currency down in order to gain trade advantages.
These are very different things.
toMAtos, toMAHtos
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Given that inflation is already an out-of-control dumpster fire, I'd like to see the evidence supporting a deflationary collapse. Either way, I wouldn't want to be the party in power next year.
Did you expect anything less, higashiyama?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
gold also was quickest asset to recover from 08 crisis
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
JPMorgan to pay $920 million for manipulating precious metals, treasury market
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Was it?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
@cohodk said:
"@derryb said:
toMAtos, to MAHtos
Did you expect anything less, higashiyama?"
I perhaps naively had high hopes, but they were dashed!
Perhaps, but it didn't last very long, while other major assets continued to accelerate, gold took a nose dive after 2011 from which it still has not recovered.
Late to the party but...
Gold $1,635
Silver $19.70
Charles III Album
Charles III Portrait Set
Charles IV Album
Charles IV Portrait Set
Spanish Colonial Pillar Set
"gold also was quickest asset to recover from 08 crisis"
Perhaps, but it didn't last very long, while other major assets continued to accelerate, gold took a nose dive after 2011 from which it still has not recovered.
As I recall, having lived through it, precious metals recovered inside of a year and rallied strongly into 2011,
The stock market was anemic for 3 years until they decided to start handing out free money to Wall Street in a big way. Those major assets you mention wouldn't have gotten off the ground if the Fed hadn't started bailing out the banks and financial institutions willy nilly. Frankly, most of their upper managements should have been prosecuted for fraud and financial malfeasance instead.
Que Sera Sera. The chickens are coming home to roost once again.
I knew it would happen.
Can I change my prediction.
I heard someone talk the other day that made a heck of a lot of sense.
He said that Gold is the new "Bitcoin"
So many burned by cyprto never to return.
In addition to the cryptonites returning to gold, central banks worldwide are buying up gold as an inflation hedge..
Gold $2100, Silver $29.
Are any predictions really, simple?
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Really? BTW...Central banks have been buying & selling gold on an annual basis for a long long long time.
Gold $1736.00
Silver $22.15
Dave
I think we will hit highs around $2100 and $30 sometime this year, but I expect a lot of price fluctuations just like the past 3 years. A lot of tailwinds with Chinese Near Year pent up demand, war related impacts, likely US debt ceiling debacle, eventual stagflation, real purchasing power dropping in spite of so-called strong dollar, the Fed eventually slowing their rate of QT, and stopping the rate increases.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
https://financialpost.com/commodities/mining/central-banks-buy-gold-fastest-pace-55-years
Im no prognosticator or fortune teller, so I'll just guess "higher".
Gold 2112
Silver 35
If I knew the answer to the price of silver by year end, I'd make sure that I was rich by then.
I knew it would happen.
.> @jmski52 said:
If you knew silver was going to be the same price on Dec 31 that it is now, how would you play it?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
like any other play: buy low, sell higher. Numerous opportunities in a 12 month period. Same with the bigger cryptos.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
He'd be hoarding it in his bunker, LOSING money due to inflation. Oh wait they already do that. lol
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
How do you play this with physical when you pay premiums which immediately put you in a hole?
Are you saying to trade paper? Jmski no like paper.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
More interested in just buying enough silver and especially gold so that when the $75/silver and $3,000/gold price hits, I'm not still looking to buy.
Gold WAS the quickest asset to recover from the 2008 crash (-34% in 2 months). It never should have crashed in the first place but the bankers sold their profitable gold positions to pay off losing positions in CDS. MBS, and stocks. It took all of 3-4 months to recover nearly all the 2008 gold drop. Gold was basically fully recovered in March 2009 as the stock market was just hitting its ultimate low (-54% drop). Gold took a total of 11 months to make new all time highs.....that rally continued on for another 2 yrs. Compare that to the Dow which did nothing from 2000-2013...flat. It took 5 years for the Dow to recover from the 2008 crash and surpass the 2007 highs. So stocks had 13 yrs of going nowhere followed by 10 yrs of going somewhere. And as far as gold "not yet" recovering from the 2011 crash....it already did that in 2020 with a new all time high. Gold's 12 yr chart looks like it's wound up to go higher. Gold continually has to fight the head winds of $480 TRILLION in world interest rate derivatives, which help determine money flows and "influence" interest rates. And the $600 BILL in gold derivatives don't help either. If and when those blow up, nothing should keep gold down short of confiscation.
I like the look of the 12 year gold chart. It certainly isn't a double top as some have suggested. Looks more like an "OPA -Loompa" cup with handle or inverted Head and Shoulders. If either of those patterns plays out, then gold projects to $3000 once $2100 is strongly broken. It would take pushing gold under $1440 to fail the H&S/C w/H patterns. We shall see.
The silver chart is even more surprising having a 43 year "OPA" cup w/handle....and a projection of $95 should silver break through $50 again. Who knows? As far as the $8.40 level being revisited to re-test the 2008 lows per WW? I don't currently buy that but concede it's certainly possible.
That $8.40 silver spot level was a high on the way up in April 2004 and back-tested during the Oct 2008 low. The March 2020 pandemic crash took silver to $11.64....the very bottom of a 12 yr down channel. Besides that, silver did a nice 5 waves down (or ABC) from 2011 to 2020 much the way oil did from 2008-2020. Both of them should require strong, multi-year bounces approaching previous all time highs before they're done retracing the majority of those 10-12 yr drops. I suspect oil headed to $150+ again and silver to $49+ are much more likely from here than revisiting the March 2020 lows again. If silver is headed below $8.40 again....then WTIC crude would have to fall under $15-$20/BL again. Seems unlikely in today's "oil and energy world" with fossil fuels under fire vs renewables. I do think the stock market will take out the March 2020 lows again (Dow 18K or lower) on a 5-10 yr major shakeout whenever that eventually comes.
A 9 year decline in silver probably needs a 4.5-5.5 yr rise to offset the previous fall ending in March 2020. Silver still needs a C leg higher even if it is still in a long term bear market. Matching the first leg up of +$18 during 2020 gets silver to $44 on the next break out. All that fits with the stag-flationary, banking crisis with dwindling faith in govts and currencies, war cycle, and a 4th turning generational / revolutionary period still playing out until 2026-2033. That's probably the ideal environment for gold....and possibly silver as well. Sort of mix of the second half of the 1970s and early 1930's. No one currently alive has ever traded such a market. It will be a shock to many of the 30 to 50 yr olds when it comes whose only enduring market reality is 1982-2022. Gold and silver seem to like 8-11 yr rallies. It's a still a long ways from getting to that point (ie 2024-2028). I lean towards 2023 remaining sort of a another consolidation year for the PMs.....with the next major move occurring from 2024-2028.
How do you play this with physical when you pay premiums which immediately put you in a hole?
Are you saying to trade paper? Jmski no like paper.
Does this actually mean that coho doesn't own any physical and is 100% indoctrinated into the system? That could explain alot.
If you only trade paper, it says to me that you don't really understand the asset. Might as well trade pork bellies.
I knew it would happen.
Gold continually has to fight the head winds of $480 TRILLION in world interest rate derivatives, which help determine money flows and "influence" interest rates. And the $600 BILL in gold derivatives don't help either.
It never ceases to amaze me that some people put their trust into a system that is built on imaginary paper assets.
If silver is headed below $8.40 again....then WTIC crude would have to fall under $15-$20/BL again. Seems unlikely in today's "oil and energy world" with fossil fuels under fire vs renewables.
Anyone who thinks that China and India are about to go "green" while China is building a couple coal plants a week - is completely delusional. Crude has nowhere to go but up long term.
The fact that silver is both a monetary asset and an industrial commodity whose utility continues to increase isn't going to change anytime soon either. We'll probably continue to see periodic supply shortages and historically high premiums for retail silver. JPM & Co. can manipulate it all they want without repercussion, but I'm not hearing of any big, new sources.
And gold? When you talk about gold, you are talking about the inverse relationship that gold has against all fiats - all of which are being keyboarded into existence out of control while the Fed rolls over the debt at higher interest rates. The "developing" countries that can't afford higher interest payments on their dollar-denominated loans are ripe for a default on their debt. Who knows what happens then? Who holds all of that foreign debt? Which Western banks?
The FACT that the US Dollar is losing favor internationally only compounds the effect. The people responsible for weaponizing the SWIFT system are out of their minds and should be institutionalized. The main effect of that idiotic ploy has been to help crystalize opposition to the dollar as the world's reserve currency, and many of those dollars are now headed home because they are being phased out where ever possible. The trust has been destroyed.
Houston, we have a problem. Got gold? Silver?
And coho wonders why I don't like paper! sheesh.
I knew it would happen.
One other view of PMs over the past 20+ years.....the relationships between the 55, 89, and 144 month simple moving averages. These levels seem to bracket gold and the SM pretty well over this period. As long as the 55>89>144 mma then everything is flying up in auto-pilot. The SM has had the alignment since 2012-2014 with the Naz leading the way. Gold didn't regain that alignment until mid-2019. Silver and Oil haven't even gotten back yet....not surprising since they are the "whipsaw wonders " of the commodity markets.
Gold's action was well bracketed in steps from 2013 to 2019 as it first stepped down on each MMA and then stepped back on them for the way up. The 55 and 89 define the main action. They tend to be good points for retraces in trending markets (like 2008 and 2020). The 144 MMA is the death star. Lose that for any length of time and it's "curtains." Current gold 144 MMA at $1480....another reason that a dip under $1440 brings gold back into that 2013-2019 quagmire yet again. While not included in this discussion the 34 mma was the canary in the coal mine in April 2013 when gold crashed through the $1522 support level on the 4th try....and it held well during the 2003-2011 up trend (currently at $1827). It took gold on the 4th try in 2008/2009 to get past the $1033 point for good.. Gold has taken 3 shots so far at the $2050-2075 level. It took 4 tries to get under $1680 the past 3 yrs, only managing 2 months under that level while the 55 mma held....then a sharp reversal. For now it looks like the failed 4 attempts to go low are now trumped by the 3 attempts to go high. The $1680-$2050 consolidation continues.
It would say that you, because you really don't understand.
Remember, knowledge is the enemy of fear.
30% rally in paper in the last 2 months.....how much for physical?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
100% risk reduction is more important than a few percentage points in gain.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The 8 week, +$240 rally in spot gold was mostly reflected in the physical price received when selling. I get the daily buy/sell gold coin and bullion spreads from Heritage. Their pre-1933 US gold coin "bullion" buy/sell spreads have been pretty consistent around the 4-5% range despite the price of gold. I suspect their buy/sell spread on bullion is the same or lower.
How much are SLV or GLD shares worth if your brokerage goes bust, sold your shares to someone else along the way, or just never bought them? (paging Bernie M.)......or the bullion banks that "manage" those ETF's go bust?.....or it's found out that there is a large shortage of available Silver or Gold to back those paper trust shares? Oops. Musical chairs time. That paper can go to "zero" if you're in the "wrong" paper fund when everyone is looking for a "physical seat" to cover their paper bets. And you won't get any heads up before that happens.
30% rally in paper in the last 2 months.....how much for physical?
Again, they aren't even remotely the same thing. You might as well be talking pork bellies.
I knew it would happen.
Y'all complain yer dollars are losing. So make more of them. Oh wait, yer all scared. Stop being weak and scared. I aint scared. Yup, not the same....winners and losers.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
My prediction.
The stuff I want will be just a little more than I want to spend.
No, corporate bonds recovered faster.
Bankers don't hold ANY gold positions, profitable or not. Regulators don't allow it. Gold as a % of Tier 1 Equity Capital for the 10 largest banks is under 0.5%.
Gold rallied as the U.S. and European debt crises spiralled out of control into late-2011. Gold then fell for 8 years.
The S&P 500 is the appropriate index. It eaked out nice returns with dividends reinvested.
They are net neutrals. They aren't bullish or bearish for prices. Derivatives don't influence money flows, the Fed and Central Banks do.
FWIW, RR, I am bullish like you longer-term on the price of gold. I believe growing per-capita consumption in India and other countries will absorb supply and push the price higher.
I look for $2,500 within 1-2 years, $3,000 by 2027-30, and $5,000 by 2035.
For Silver.......CPM group has my nod.
Gold 2350
Silver 26.25
quite a few $25's
let the conspiracy stories begin!
$25 Gutter? It didn't make it. In fact I have it down for the year. Pretty much the only asset on planet earth that didn't soar, excluding Pd, Pt, Corn, and Nat gas. LOL
P.S. You are correct, there will be plenty of conspiracies as to why. You can't make this C$@! up. CRZY WRLD!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Yup!
THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
https://catalog.usmint.gov/cart> @blitzdude said:
Except you were wrong.
Silver and gold are both higher.
Blood in the streets is a buy opportunity. Brains in the gutter: not so much.
He's sitting on a loss position in physical silver because he apparently got suckered by a rising price, and now he harbors a personal grudge against silver. Any and every investor should know that a chunk of metal doesn't take things personally.
I knew it would happen.
Gutter was down .02 cents for the year. Non-inflation adjusted.....Oh yeah and gutter premiums collapsed as well. LOL!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
My DCA on physical gutter is sub $20/ozt. If you factor in decades of inflation well it certainly wasn't the brightest move I ever made but still not YET a loss. That said the money parked there would have done much better just about anywhere else. Cripes, hoarding dingleberries would have been a better investment. The majority of my gutter dealings these days is in the SLV, I haven't bought physical gutter for quite some time. Only a few green boxes, about $1000FV 90% junk and a couple hundred ozt of miscellaneous govt issued rounds remain. I continue to dump it as I find someone dumb enough to buy it. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I continue to dump it as I find someone dumb enough to buy it. THKS!
You should at least get under Apmex's pricing if you really are trying to sell ASEs.
I knew it would happen.