I think from here on out the Giants will probably start getting more respect from the oddsmakers.
Nice to take advantage of them being +3 against the Jags for some crazy reason.
Don't think we'll see them getting disrespected to that degree from now on.
Titans also will start getting more respect, if not I'll keep betting on them.
@Martin said: @perkdog I will turn for you just don’t overthink the pics and parleys and teasers are for rookies
Good luck the rest of the season
Martin
Thanks man!
Tell you this much, I set my limits and it took everything I had not to bet the Pats last night. I wanted to take the Pats for 250 to win my money back but stuck to my guns and sat it out.
had a prior commitment that prevented me from watching the game last night, so all i know is what i've read. first off, good on my boys for playing a very solid, complimentary game. normally i'd say i can't believe it, but not this season. for me personally, the first 7 weeks have been nothing short of totally unpredictable. not only are improbable things happening at an alarming rate, but those improbable happenings are happening improbably. take Tampa Bay, for instance. they have been favored by double-digits two weeks in a row over two of the (seemingly) worst teams in the entire NFL. and lost both of them. but here's the improbably improbable part: at no time did they have the lead against the Steelers or Panthers in those games. seriously, think about that for a second.
then we have last night. if you had not seen Chicago play this season prior to last night, you're probably waking up this morning saying to yourself, "Wow, Stephen's team is actually pretty good." well, i just want to remind you guys of a few things. first, the Bears had lost 4 of their previous 5 games. their only win was against the Houston Texans by a scant three points. last week they played the Washington Condoms and couldn't score more than 7 points in a loss at home. thru the first 6 weeks of the season, the offense was ranked 29th in yards per game and points per game. the defense was ranked 27th in yards allowed per game. so right on cue, with 6:04 left in the 2nd quarter last night, my team decided to go '85 Bears on the Patriots and outscore them 23-0 the rest of the way. they were 9-point dogs and had the lead for roughly 56 minutes of that game last night. that is the stuff of fairy tales, except it's so outrageous that no one would even bother writing such a story because they know that no one would buy it.
the only thing i've truly been right about this season is what i said in the beginning -- it's gonna be damn difficult to make money this season with all of the parity involved. i said i'm having a difficult time differentiating 90% of the teams and that hasn't changed. with the exception of the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles, i have a tough time trusting any of these teams. in my opinion, the gap between the fourth best team in the league to the worst is the smallest it has been in recent memory. they always say that any team can beat another on any given day, but never has that been more true than this season (imo).
and to those who say that parlays and teasers are sucker bets, let's think about this logically. if you take a moment and visit the NFL picks thread in this forum, you'll see the leader with a score of 70. that's 70-37-1 thru 7 weeks. he is batting roughly .650. in other words, the best of the best is picking two out of three games right straight up. if it was against the spread, he'd be south of 65%. so when simply choosing the winner of NFL games and selecting a random sample size of 3 games, even the participant at the top of the leaderboard is encountering one bullet out of three. and again, that's not against the spread, which is a much more difficult proposition. so for those saying, hey galaxy, you dumbshit, stop jacking with parlays and teasers and start singling out individual games, it'll be easier. will it? it will not. not this season it won't.
you know what would make things easier? if i could either a) find my bulletproof vest, or b) stop gambling. right now b) seems like a very attractive option. i'm going to mull it over the next few days. at least a couple of esteemed posters have been able to dodge bullets this season and are living the good life in the profitable club where fire hydrant and all of the hot LA Rams cheerleaders he brought are. i have serious doubts whether i'll be able to get there. but one thing is for certain: i will not be touching Baltimore-Tampa with a 10-foot pole on Thursday night. know why? because the moment i stop overanalyzing and drop some coin on the Ravens, Tom will throw for 385 yards and 5 house calls and the Bucs will win by 38 points.
@galaxy27 said:
had a prior commitment that prevented me from watching the game last night, so all i know is what i've read. first off, good on my boys for playing a very solid, complimentary game. normally i'd say i can't believe it, but not this season. for me personally, the first 7 weeks have been nothing short of totally unpredictable. not only are improbable things happening at an alarming rate, but those improbable happenings are happening improbably. take Tampa Bay, for instance. they have been favored by double-digits two weeks in a row over two of the (seemingly) worst teams in the entire NFL. and lost both of them. but here's the improbably improbable part: at no time did they have the lead against the Steelers or Panthers in those games. seriously, think about that for a second.
then we have last night. if you had not seen Chicago play this season prior to last night, you're probably waking up this morning saying to yourself, "Wow, Stephen's team is actually pretty good." well, i just want to remind you guys of a few things. first, the Bears had lost 4 of their previous 5 games. their only win was against the Houston Texans by a scant three points. last week they played the Washington Condoms and couldn't score more than 7 points in a loss at home. thru the first 6 weeks of the season, the offense was ranked 29th in yards per game and points per game. the defense was ranked 27th in yards allowed per game. so right on cue, with 6:04 left in the 2nd quarter last night, my team decided to go '85 Bears on the Patriots and outscore them 23-0 the rest of the way. they were 9-point dogs and had the lead for roughly 56 minutes of that game last night. that is the stuff of fairy tales, except it's so outrageous that no one would even bother writing such a story because they know that no one would buy it.
the only thing i've truly been right about this season is what i said in the beginning -- it's gonna be damn difficult to make money this season with all of the parity involved. i said i'm having a difficult time differentiating 90% of the teams and that hasn't changed. with the exception of the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles, i have a tough time trusting any of these teams. in my opinion, the gap between the fourth best team in the league to the worst is the smallest it has been in recent memory. they always say that any team can beat another on any given day, but never has that been more true than this season (imo).
and to those who say that parlays and teasers are sucker bets, let's think about this logically. if you take a moment and visit the NFL picks thread in this forum, you'll see the leader with a score of 70. that's 70-37-1 thru 7 weeks. he is batting roughly .650. in other words, the best of the best is picking two out of three games right straight up. if it was against the spread, he'd be south of 65%. so when simply choosing the winner of NFL games and selecting a random sample size of 3 games, even the participant at the top of the leaderboard is encountering one bullet out of three. and again, that's not against the spread, which is a much more difficult proposition. so for those saying, hey galaxy, you dumbshit, stop jacking with parlays and teasers and start singling out individual games, it'll be easier. will it? it will not. not this season it won't.
you know what would make things easier? if i could either a) find my bulletproof vest, or b) stop gambling. right now b) seems like a very attractive option. i'm going to mull it over the next few days. at least a couple of esteemed posters have been able to dodge bullets this season and are living the good life in the profitable club where fire hydrant and all of the hot LA Rams cheerleaders he brought are. i have serious doubts whether i'll be able to get there. but one thing is for certain: i will not be touching Baltimore-Tampa with a 10-foot pole on Thursday night. know why? because the moment i stop overanalyzing and drop some coin on the Ravens, Tom will throw for 385 yards and 5 house calls and the Bucs will win by 38 points.
then i would need a ride to the funny farm.
have a good day homies! 🍻
I had to quote this because it deserved a "Like" "Agree" and a "Lol"
@galaxy27 I’d take a 65% win rate ATS and be a happy gambler. I gave up the sports book betting 35 + years ago. From what I read here it seems to be the same story. Except many more ways to bet the games. Had a bookie 35 years ago tell me your good. Just stay away from the teasers and parlays. They are for rookies and the house. Just after that bit of advice from him he was thrown in jail for bookmaking. Scared the crap out of me never betted with a bookie again. But I think he advice was sound. I would have made more
Money staying away from the gimmicks
Just my experience
I enjoy reading this thread and wish all of you the best of luck and hoping the last second play tilts to you
Galaxy, nice post but I really think Martin gave good advice.
Make 3 single bets, win 2 or them and go collect your cash.
Make a 3 team parlay bet, get 2 out of 3 correct, collect nothing. Rinse, repeat every weekend.
Which option makes more sense?
I know my post was long-winded, so I'll give you guys a pass. No one is connecting at a 65% clip ATS. Darin you should know this because you're playing in the contest. Canes is the leader @ 65% SU. It tails off from there. If everyone was picking against the spread, this is what it would look like. Check out these writers from CBS who go at it ATS. These dudes eat, sleep and breathe the NFL because it's their job, yet only one has his head above 50% thus far.
I get what you guys are saying, but I don't think the solution is as simplistic as you make it seem.
allow me to place my theory into an numeric example -- the last bet I placed.
let's say i split my last parlay up into individual straight-up bets and for the sake of argument I will win 2 out of 3. all shooting for a $100 payoff. so, i lost $410 with the Patriots last night, but i already know that both the Eagles and Bills are winners this weekend. i win $100 on each of them, or $200 total. i end up with a net loss of -$210 avoiding a parlay, as opposed to losing $200 going the parlay route. so basically a wash. but -- and here's the most important thing to consider -- it's only a wash if i'm regularly able to pick 2 out of 3 games correct. if i can't, i'm down more betting individual games. and once again, we can see that there is only one guy in the contest here who has been able to do that thru 7 weeks -- Mr. Canes. i can guarantee you i wouldn't be at 65% right now with all of the upsets that are happening. so in the long run, betting parlays like the last one I placed would actually mitigate my losses.
i'm not saying that betting parlays and teasers is the way to go, i'm just saying that avoiding them is not nearly as cut and dried as it might seem with the state of the NFL right now. perhaps the most effective solution of all would be to avoid massive favorites until the insanity dies down...................if it ever does.
@galaxy27 said:
I know my post was long-winded, so I'll give you guys a pass. No one is connecting at a 65% clip ATS. Darin you should know this because you're playing in the contest. Canes is the leader @ 65% SU. It tails off from there. If everyone was picking against the spread, this is what it would look like. Check out these writers from CBS who go at it ATS. These dudes eat, sleep and breathe the NFL because it's their job, yet only one has his head above 50% thus far.
I get what you guys are saying, but I don't think the solution is as simplistic as you make it seem.
That post should be all the weekend Warriors need to know about betting professional football Only do it for your own entertainment cause you Will likely not make money. Only the house wins with the rake over the long hall. However as I know it’s fun to put your Money where you mouth is, and to cash a few tickets now and again. Been there done that.
Like I said, I like following this tread hope it keeps up.
A few things you guys have posted are the same things that I thought a long time ago. It seems the cycles don’t change
Galaxy- To be fair, those guys in that CBS contest don't bet money on every NFL game every week ATS.
Have them pick their top 4 games ATS every week and put money on their picks and I think the winning percentages
would be much better.
Just like us in DD's contest. If I only had to pick 4 games every week, my choice, just like a person betting money
would only pick a handful of games to bet on, my winning percentage would be a lot better than
my current 60%.
I was a bookie for years in the 90’s. You can’t beat them. The vig gets you every time. Gamblers would pay me before they paid their mortgage so they could bet again next week. Being a bookie I know you can’t beat ‘em and my tiny gambling is entertainment for me. Winning or losing $500 during football season is just funny money. There’s a thrill to being on the right end and it’s impossible to explain.
As long as it’s mad money and not your rent. As long as it’s a past time and not an obsession. As long as it’s not every waking thought it’s not a problem. If it’s any of the above that’s when problems arise.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
@2dueces said:
I was a bookie for years in the 90’s. You can’t beat them. The vig gets you every time. Gamblers would pay me before they paid their mortgage so they could bet again next week. Being a bookie I know you can’t beat ‘em and my tiny gambling is entertainment for me. Winning or losing $500 during football season is just funny money. There’s a thrill to being on the right end and it’s impossible to explain.
As long as it’s mad money and not your rent. As long as it’s a past time and not an obsession. As long as it’s not every waking thought it’s not a problem. If it’s any of the above that’s when problems arise.
Exactly
My rule of thumb is I never take money out of savings to gamble.
Pay the bills, take care of the woman/kids in your life FIRST then enjoy throwing extra money at games if you want
I couldn't find the college odds on draft kings for some reason
so this is what I like for the moment in the NFL. Won't be at the casino until Saturday to place bets.
Ravens +1 over Bucs (Ravens should walk all over Methuselah and his ragtag band of has beens.)
Raiders -1.5 over Saints (I like how the Raider offense came alive the second half last week)
Titans -2 over Texans (Titans are scrappers, involved in close games and coming out on top lately.
I like the coach of this team, I think the players adopt his rough and tumble attitude)
I would take the Bills at -10 over the Packers but it sits at -11 right now so I'm not sure about this one.
May just put $475 on the moneyline and rake in an easy hundo.
@galaxy27 said:
had a prior commitment that prevented me from watching the game last night, so all i know is what i've read. first off, good on my boys for playing a very solid, complimentary game. normally i'd say i can't believe it, but not this season. for me personally, the first 7 weeks have been nothing short of totally unpredictable. not only are improbable things happening at an alarming rate, but those improbable happenings are happening improbably. take Tampa Bay, for instance. they have been favored by double-digits two weeks in a row over two of the (seemingly) worst teams in the entire NFL. and lost both of them. but here's the improbably improbable part: at no time did they have the lead against the Steelers or Panthers in those games. seriously, think about that for a second.
then we have last night. if you had not seen Chicago play this season prior to last night, you're probably waking up this morning saying to yourself, "Wow, Stephen's team is actually pretty good." well, i just want to remind you guys of a few things. first, the Bears had lost 4 of their previous 5 games. their only win was against the Houston Texans by a scant three points. last week they played the Washington Condoms and couldn't score more than 7 points in a loss at home. thru the first 6 weeks of the season, the offense was ranked 29th in yards per game and points per game. the defense was ranked 27th in yards allowed per game. so right on cue, with 6:04 left in the 2nd quarter last night, my team decided to go '85 Bears on the Patriots and outscore them 23-0 the rest of the way. they were 9-point dogs and had the lead for roughly 56 minutes of that game last night. that is the stuff of fairy tales, except it's so outrageous that no one would even bother writing such a story because they know that no one would buy it.
the only thing i've truly been right about this season is what i said in the beginning -- it's gonna be damn difficult to make money this season with all of the parity involved. i said i'm having a difficult time differentiating 90% of the teams and that hasn't changed. with the exception of the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles, i have a tough time trusting any of these teams. in my opinion, the gap between the fourth best team in the league to the worst is the smallest it has been in recent memory. they always say that any team can beat another on any given day, but never has that been more true than this season (imo).
and to those who say that parlays and teasers are sucker bets, let's think about this logically. if you take a moment and visit the NFL picks thread in this forum, you'll see the leader with a score of 70. that's 70-37-1 thru 7 weeks. he is batting roughly .650. in other words, the best of the best is picking two out of three games right straight up. if it was against the spread, he'd be south of 65%. so when simply choosing the winner of NFL games and selecting a random sample size of 3 games, even the participant at the top of the leaderboard is encountering one bullet out of three. and again, that's not against the spread, which is a much more difficult proposition. so for those saying, hey galaxy, you dumbshit, stop jacking with parlays and teasers and start singling out individual games, it'll be easier. will it? it will not. not this season it won't.
you know what would make things easier? if i could either a) find my bulletproof vest, or b) stop gambling. right now b) seems like a very attractive option. i'm going to mull it over the next few days. at least a couple of esteemed posters have been able to dodge bullets this season and are living the good life in the profitable club where fire hydrant and all of the hot LA Rams cheerleaders he brought are. i have serious doubts whether i'll be able to get there. but one thing is for certain: i will not be touching Baltimore-Tampa with a 10-foot pole on Thursday night. know why? because the moment i stop overanalyzing and drop some coin on the Ravens, Tom will throw for 385 yards and 5 house calls and the Bucs will win by 38 points.
then i would need a ride to the funny farm.
have a good day homies! 🍻
I've had some good luck just betting real $ on the opposite picks of my contest here.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@galaxy27 said:
allow me to place my theory into an numeric example -- the last bet I placed.
let's say i split my last parlay up into individual straight-up bets and for the sake of argument I will win 2 out of 3. all shooting for a $100 payoff. so, i lost $410 with the Patriots last night, but i already know that both the Eagles and Bills are winners this weekend. i win $100 on each of them, or $200 total. i end up with a net loss of -$210 avoiding a parlay, as opposed to losing $200 going the parlay route. so basically a wash. but -- and here's the most important thing to consider -- it's only a wash if i'm regularly able to pick 2 out of 3 games correct. if i can't, i'm down more betting individual games. and once again, we can see that there is only one guy in the contest here who has been able to do that thru 7 weeks -- Mr. Canes. i can guarantee you i wouldn't be at 65% right now with all of the upsets that are happening. so in the long run, betting parlays like the last one I placed would actually mitigate my losses.
i'm not saying that betting parlays and teasers is the way to go, i'm just saying that avoiding them is not nearly as cut and dried as it might seem with the state of the NFL right now. perhaps the most effective solution of all would be to avoid massive favorites until the insanity dies down...................if it ever does.
I favor parlays. But I play less $ than I would if betting the $ line, which I never play unbtil tied into a parlay. Less $ bet, but greater reward if you hit.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
would just like to point out that tonight's line has moved hard.....................in favor of TOMpa
3.5 points since it opened at my book
i'm trying very hard not to be the cynical nutjob here, but i simply do not understand why these bettors are backing up the money truck and dumping it on the Bucs
not only are we talking about a team that at no time had the lead against the Steelers and Panthers the previous two weeks, but we're also talking about a team that's down four starters tonight against a much stronger opposition than the last two they couldn't beat
if my contemptuously distrustful theory proves correct, then this action means a win for Tampa tonight. i'm not going to chase this game, but i'm rooting hard for the Ravens just to put my mind at ease
@galaxy27 said:
would just like to point out that tonight's line has moved hard.....................in favor of TOMpa
3.5 points since it opened at my book
i'm trying very hard not to be the cynical nutjob here, but i simply do not understand why these bettors are backing up the money truck and dumping it on the Bucs
not only are we talking about a team that at no time had the lead against the Steelers and Panthers the previous two weeks, but we're also talking about a team that's down four starters tonight against a much stronger opposition than the last two they couldn't beat
if my contemptuously distrustful theory proves correct, then this action means a win for Tampa tonight. i'm not going to chase this game, but i'm rooting hard for the Ravens just to put my mind at ease
Everything you said makes perfect sense and means a Tampa win. I’m serious
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
The line for tonight’s game went from Ravens -2 to Bucs -2 but the betting public
Is 59% on the Ravens. Very strange line unless the majority of the people are on the Ravens but the big money sharps are on Tampa. After last week’s performance against Carolina and a short week I can’t figure this line at all. So when it looks fishy take the improbable. Tampa wins and covers tonight
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
@2dueces said:
The line for tonight’s game went from Ravens -2 to Bucs -2 but the betting public
Is 59% on the Ravens. Very strange line unless the majority of the people are on the Ravens but the big money sharps are on Tampa. After last week’s performance against Carolina and a short week I can’t figure this line at all. So when it looks fishy take the improbable. Tampa wins and covers tonight
it makes no sense. unless the sharks know something the average Joe doesn't. there is no logical reason to shove the line that hard based on what has transpired in the past two weeks, as well as the fact that the Buccaneers are playing wounded tonight.
which is why i said i'm hoping the Ravens win. i really want a gaping hole to be put in my burgeoning conspiracy thoughts.
but if someone here is following the flow and taking Tampa tonight, then of course i wish you the best of luck.
@2dueces said:
The line for tonight’s game went from Ravens -2 to Bucs -2 but the betting public
Is 59% on the Ravens. Very strange line unless the majority of the people are on the Ravens but the big money sharps are on Tampa. After last week’s performance against Carolina and a short week I can’t figure this line at all. So when it looks fishy take the improbable. Tampa wins and covers tonight
it makes no sense. unless the sharks know something the average Joe doesn't. there is no logical reason to shove the line that hard based on what has transpired in the past two weeks, as well as the fact that the Buccaneers are playing wounded tonight.
which is why i said i'm hoping the Ravens win. i really want a gaping hole to be put in my burgeoning conspiracy thoughts.
but if someone here is following the flow and taking Tampa tonight, then of course i wish you the best of luck.
I’m going against everything I said earlier
Tampa -2 for 50
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
You guys are seriously over thinking these games. What does it take for you to bet against the Bucs,
a loss against Leisure Haven nursing homes 75 and older flag football team?
I took off work a couple hours early so I could make it to the casino in plenty of time to take the Ravens moneyline
which was +100. Didn't plan to go until Saturday but didn't realize when I posted earlier this was a Thursday game,
so couldn't pass up the chance.
I know it looks fishy posting this after the fact but I got home fairly late so in fairness I will get my niece to
help me post a pic of the betting slip tomorrow eve. or Saturday.
You guys are seriously over thinking these games. What does it take for you to bet against the Bucs,
a loss against Leisure Haven nursing homes 75 and older flag football team?
this was so good that i gave you an LOL, retracted it, then gave it to you again
you too bud. still feeling the Titans if Tannehill doesn't play? i just caught wind of him possibly missing the game and the thought of Malik Willis starting doesn't exactly send a thrill up my pant leg
you too bud. still feeling the Titans if Tannehill doesn't play? i just caught wind of him possibly missing the game and the thought of Malik Willis starting doesn't exactly send a thrill up my pant leg
I think I'll have to stay away from the Titans with Tannehill questionable.
I like the Raiders -1 over the Saints and maybe Bengals -3 over Browns but I heard J'marr Chase was injured
but I'm thinking Burrow has enough weapons without him.
I was looking at the futures bets yesterday at the casino and noticed the Bengals are -155 to make
the playoffs so I may put some money on that.
EDIT- I think I will stay away from the Raiders as Davonte Adams is questionable. I'll post my actual bets tomorrow.
finally connected on a 3-teamer and carved into my losses. clearly it was the beer, so the next time i piece together a wild parlay i will flash a picture of 6 new friends.
everyone and their dog is on Cincy even without Chase, but i have a spooky feeling about tonight's game. (see what i did there?)
so naturally i'm just going to pretend like said spooky feeling doesn't exist and toss some spondulicks on the better team
@galaxy27 said:
finally connected on a 3-teamer and carved into my losses. clearly it was the beer, so the next time i piece together a wild parlay i will flash a picture of 6 new friends.
everyone and their dog is on Cincy even without Chase, but i have a spooky feeling about tonight's game. (see what i did there?)
so naturally i'm just going to pretend like said spooky feeling doesn't exist and toss some spondulicks on the better team
-153.26
Nice job Galaxy, I had noticed Derrick Henry came through for you big time with Tannehill out.
I've been really lucky lately. I decided not to bet on the Raiders because I thought Davonte Adams was
going to be out for the game, and then they get shut out by the Saints after scoring 38 points the week before.
Glad I opted out of that bet. The Raiders will be on my no bet list for the forseeable future with that kind of inconsistency
And when I was at the betting kiosk Saturday the line on the Bills-Packers was -10.5 and I said to myself if it drops
to -10 I'm betting on the Bills. I stared at the screen for a couple minutes and it stayed the same so I dropped
quite a few Benjamins' on the Bill's money line.
@Darin based on what I've seen, you've been killing it this season. Good Lord you even had Tennessee over Kentucky.......that may have been your easiest win yet
Keep it rollin
Edit: by the way, terrible doesn't even begin to describe the Texans. the Titans basically told them what they were going to do on Sunday, and they still couldn't stop it. how the hell you allow Derrick Henry to go off for 200+ with a backup rookie QB is beyond me. stick 8 in the box the entire freaking game for crying out loud and make the kid beat you with his arm. nah, we'll allow Tennessee to do the obvious and leave imprints of the bottom of Henry's shoes on our faces. that's a very special kind of suckage.
Houston gets Philly on Thursday and I can promise you that I'll have some loot tied to the Eagles in some form.
the moral of tonight's story: either follow your gut or don't bet. i did neither of those things. i felt an upset brewing, it happened, and i lost money. that's the blueprint for being an unprofitable gambler. you're welcome.
locked this one in tonight. i think Philly could play 10 guys on each side of the ball and still beat Houston. and no part of me understands why the Vikings are only -3 against the Commodore 64's. imo the line should be double that, but i'll gladly take -175 for the win and run with it. if i get stung by Taylor Heinicke i will go buy 6 Heinekens and pound them.
I like the Eagles. I'm not all that trusting of Cousins over Heinecke though, he is one of those guys that pulls stupid lucky plays out of his rear end from time to time
I like K-State over Texas Saturday. Texas is a 2.5 point favorite, they've been struggling this
year and last week K-State demolished Oklahoma State 48-0. And its at Manhattan (Kansas) where
they have a huge homefield advantage. The crowd will be pumped for this one.
Hopefully the Wildcats starting QB is still injured and the backup plays again.
Also do you guys have any thoughts on the big game, Tennessee against Georgia?
Georgia is at -8.5 which seems rather large since the Vols are playing some pretty good football.
I'm thinking of taking Tennessee in this game, I know Georgia has a stout defense but don't think
they've faced an offense as good as Tennessee.
Comments
This was my best week- weekend of the season, didn 't lose a bet.
Thanks to Aaron Judge, TCU, Oklahoma State, Giants, Titans and my boys the Chiefs!
I think from here on out the Giants will probably start getting more respect from the oddsmakers.
Nice to take advantage of them being +3 against the Jags for some crazy reason.
Don't think we'll see them getting disrespected to that degree from now on.
Titans also will start getting more respect, if not I'll keep betting on them.
I’m thinking about $1k on the patriots-8.5. I just need to hit send. 😳
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
best of luck if you do
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Something is absolutely wrong if any of those games lose, kinda like TOMPA losing to McCaffrey less Panthers 😫
@perkdog I will turn for you just don’t overthink the pics and parleys and teasers are for rookies
Good luck the rest of the season
Martin
Thanks man!
Tell you this much, I set my limits and it took everything I had not to bet the Pats last night. I wanted to take the Pats for 250 to win my money back but stuck to my guns and sat it out.
Unbelievable they got smoked
Sorry @galaxy27
@2dueces I sincerely hope you didn't hit send 😳
Awful game
had a prior commitment that prevented me from watching the game last night, so all i know is what i've read. first off, good on my boys for playing a very solid, complimentary game. normally i'd say i can't believe it, but not this season. for me personally, the first 7 weeks have been nothing short of totally unpredictable. not only are improbable things happening at an alarming rate, but those improbable happenings are happening improbably. take Tampa Bay, for instance. they have been favored by double-digits two weeks in a row over two of the (seemingly) worst teams in the entire NFL. and lost both of them. but here's the improbably improbable part: at no time did they have the lead against the Steelers or Panthers in those games. seriously, think about that for a second.
then we have last night. if you had not seen Chicago play this season prior to last night, you're probably waking up this morning saying to yourself, "Wow, Stephen's team is actually pretty good." well, i just want to remind you guys of a few things. first, the Bears had lost 4 of their previous 5 games. their only win was against the Houston Texans by a scant three points. last week they played the Washington Condoms and couldn't score more than 7 points in a loss at home. thru the first 6 weeks of the season, the offense was ranked 29th in yards per game and points per game. the defense was ranked 27th in yards allowed per game. so right on cue, with 6:04 left in the 2nd quarter last night, my team decided to go '85 Bears on the Patriots and outscore them 23-0 the rest of the way. they were 9-point dogs and had the lead for roughly 56 minutes of that game last night. that is the stuff of fairy tales, except it's so outrageous that no one would even bother writing such a story because they know that no one would buy it.
the only thing i've truly been right about this season is what i said in the beginning -- it's gonna be damn difficult to make money this season with all of the parity involved. i said i'm having a difficult time differentiating 90% of the teams and that hasn't changed. with the exception of the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles, i have a tough time trusting any of these teams. in my opinion, the gap between the fourth best team in the league to the worst is the smallest it has been in recent memory. they always say that any team can beat another on any given day, but never has that been more true than this season (imo).
and to those who say that parlays and teasers are sucker bets, let's think about this logically. if you take a moment and visit the NFL picks thread in this forum, you'll see the leader with a score of 70. that's 70-37-1 thru 7 weeks. he is batting roughly .650. in other words, the best of the best is picking two out of three games right straight up. if it was against the spread, he'd be south of 65%. so when simply choosing the winner of NFL games and selecting a random sample size of 3 games, even the participant at the top of the leaderboard is encountering one bullet out of three. and again, that's not against the spread, which is a much more difficult proposition. so for those saying, hey galaxy, you dumbshit, stop jacking with parlays and teasers and start singling out individual games, it'll be easier. will it? it will not. not this season it won't.
you know what would make things easier? if i could either a) find my bulletproof vest, or b) stop gambling. right now b) seems like a very attractive option. i'm going to mull it over the next few days. at least a couple of esteemed posters have been able to dodge bullets this season and are living the good life in the profitable club where fire hydrant and all of the hot LA Rams cheerleaders he brought are. i have serious doubts whether i'll be able to get there. but one thing is for certain: i will not be touching Baltimore-Tampa with a 10-foot pole on Thursday night. know why? because the moment i stop overanalyzing and drop some coin on the Ravens, Tom will throw for 385 yards and 5 house calls and the Bucs will win by 38 points.
then i would need a ride to the funny farm.
have a good day homies! 🍻
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
I had to quote this because it deserved a "Like" "Agree" and a "Lol"
So here goes 💯👍🤣
@galaxy27 I’d take a 65% win rate ATS and be a happy gambler. I gave up the sports book betting 35 + years ago. From what I read here it seems to be the same story. Except many more ways to bet the games. Had a bookie 35 years ago tell me your good. Just stay away from the teasers and parlays. They are for rookies and the house. Just after that bit of advice from him he was thrown in jail for bookmaking. Scared the crap out of me never betted with a bookie again. But I think he advice was sound. I would have made more
Money staying away from the gimmicks
Just my experience
I enjoy reading this thread and wish all of you the best of luck and hoping the last second play tilts to you
Martin
Galaxy, nice post but I really think Martin gave good advice.
Make 3 single bets, win 2 or them and go collect your cash.
Make a 3 team parlay bet, get 2 out of 3 correct, collect nothing. Rinse, repeat every weekend.
Which option makes more sense?
I know my post was long-winded, so I'll give you guys a pass. No one is connecting at a 65% clip ATS. Darin you should know this because you're playing in the contest. Canes is the leader @ 65% SU. It tails off from there. If everyone was picking against the spread, this is what it would look like. Check out these writers from CBS who go at it ATS. These dudes eat, sleep and breathe the NFL because it's their job, yet only one has his head above 50% thus far.
I get what you guys are saying, but I don't think the solution is as simplistic as you make it seem.
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
allow me to place my theory into an numeric example -- the last bet I placed.
let's say i split my last parlay up into individual straight-up bets and for the sake of argument I will win 2 out of 3. all shooting for a $100 payoff. so, i lost $410 with the Patriots last night, but i already know that both the Eagles and Bills are winners this weekend. i win $100 on each of them, or $200 total. i end up with a net loss of -$210 avoiding a parlay, as opposed to losing $200 going the parlay route. so basically a wash. but -- and here's the most important thing to consider -- it's only a wash if i'm regularly able to pick 2 out of 3 games correct. if i can't, i'm down more betting individual games. and once again, we can see that there is only one guy in the contest here who has been able to do that thru 7 weeks -- Mr. Canes. i can guarantee you i wouldn't be at 65% right now with all of the upsets that are happening. so in the long run, betting parlays like the last one I placed would actually mitigate my losses.
i'm not saying that betting parlays and teasers is the way to go, i'm just saying that avoiding them is not nearly as cut and dried as it might seem with the state of the NFL right now. perhaps the most effective solution of all would be to avoid massive favorites until the insanity dies down...................if it ever does.
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
That post should be all the weekend Warriors need to know about betting professional football Only do it for your own entertainment cause you Will likely not make money. Only the house wins with the rake over the long hall. However as I know it’s fun to put your Money where you mouth is, and to cash a few tickets now and again. Been there done that.
Like I said, I like following this tread hope it keeps up.
A few things you guys have posted are the same things that I thought a long time ago. It seems the cycles don’t change
Martin
Galaxy- To be fair, those guys in that CBS contest don't bet money on every NFL game every week ATS.
Have them pick their top 4 games ATS every week and put money on their picks and I think the winning percentages
would be much better.
Just like us in DD's contest. If I only had to pick 4 games every week, my choice, just like a person betting money
would only pick a handful of games to bet on, my winning percentage would be a lot better than
my current 60%.
I was a bookie for years in the 90’s. You can’t beat them. The vig gets you every time. Gamblers would pay me before they paid their mortgage so they could bet again next week. Being a bookie I know you can’t beat ‘em and my tiny gambling is entertainment for me. Winning or losing $500 during football season is just funny money. There’s a thrill to being on the right end and it’s impossible to explain.
As long as it’s mad money and not your rent. As long as it’s a past time and not an obsession. As long as it’s not every waking thought it’s not a problem. If it’s any of the above that’s when problems arise.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Exactly
My rule of thumb is I never take money out of savings to gamble.
Pay the bills, take care of the woman/kids in your life FIRST then enjoy throwing extra money at games if you want
I couldn't find the college odds on draft kings for some reason
so this is what I like for the moment in the NFL. Won't be at the casino until Saturday to place bets.
Ravens +1 over Bucs (Ravens should walk all over Methuselah and his ragtag band of has beens.)
Raiders -1.5 over Saints (I like how the Raider offense came alive the second half last week)
Titans -2 over Texans (Titans are scrappers, involved in close games and coming out on top lately.
I like the coach of this team, I think the players adopt his rough and tumble attitude)
I would take the Bills at -10 over the Packers but it sits at -11 right now so I'm not sure about this one.
May just put $475 on the moneyline and rake in an easy hundo.
I've had some good luck just betting real $ on the opposite picks of my contest here.
I favor parlays. But I play less $ than I would if betting the $ line, which I never play unbtil tied into a parlay. Less $ bet, but greater reward if you hit.
Anyone here ever make an "If" bet with a book?
@Darin See rule #1. Never bet on a Bucs game. 😊
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
would just like to point out that tonight's line has moved hard.....................in favor of TOMpa
3.5 points since it opened at my book
i'm trying very hard not to be the cynical nutjob here, but i simply do not understand why these bettors are backing up the money truck and dumping it on the Bucs
not only are we talking about a team that at no time had the lead against the Steelers and Panthers the previous two weeks, but we're also talking about a team that's down four starters tonight against a much stronger opposition than the last two they couldn't beat
if my contemptuously distrustful theory proves correct, then this action means a win for Tampa tonight. i'm not going to chase this game, but i'm rooting hard for the Ravens just to put my mind at ease
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Everything you said makes perfect sense and means a Tampa win. I’m serious
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
The line for tonight’s game went from Ravens -2 to Bucs -2 but the betting public
Is 59% on the Ravens. Very strange line unless the majority of the people are on the Ravens but the big money sharps are on Tampa. After last week’s performance against Carolina and a short week I can’t figure this line at all. So when it looks fishy take the improbable. Tampa wins and covers tonight
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
it makes no sense. unless the sharks know something the average Joe doesn't. there is no logical reason to shove the line that hard based on what has transpired in the past two weeks, as well as the fact that the Buccaneers are playing wounded tonight.
which is why i said i'm hoping the Ravens win. i really want a gaping hole to be put in my burgeoning conspiracy thoughts.
but if someone here is following the flow and taking Tampa tonight, then of course i wish you the best of luck.
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
I’m going against everything I said earlier
Tampa -2 for 50
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
You guys are seriously over thinking these games. What does it take for you to bet against the Bucs,
a loss against Leisure Haven nursing homes 75 and older flag football team?
I took off work a couple hours early so I could make it to the casino in plenty of time to take the Ravens moneyline
which was +100. Didn't plan to go until Saturday but didn't realize when I posted earlier this was a Thursday game,
so couldn't pass up the chance.
I know it looks fishy posting this after the fact but I got home fairly late so in fairness I will get my niece to
help me post a pic of the betting slip tomorrow eve. or Saturday.
I had the Bucs locked in for -2.5
But NOPE they are not screwing me for the 3rd week in a row
I stayed away
Dumba$$ me. Went against my #1 rule. When will I ever learn
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
this was so good that i gave you an LOL, retracted it, then gave it to you again
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
what can i say, i'm an obstinate gambler
except this time if when things don't go according to plan, i have a support system in place -- 6 unconditional friends
-340.04
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Yet another post that deserves all of these 👍🤣🙌🍻
Good luck Galaxy!
you too bud. still feeling the Titans if Tannehill doesn't play? i just caught wind of him possibly missing the game and the thought of Malik Willis starting doesn't exactly send a thrill up my pant leg
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
I think I'll have to stay away from the Titans with Tannehill questionable.
I like the Raiders -1 over the Saints and maybe Bengals -3 over Browns but I heard J'marr Chase was injured
but I'm thinking Burrow has enough weapons without him.
I was looking at the futures bets yesterday at the casino and noticed the Bengals are -155 to make
the playoffs so I may put some money on that.
EDIT- I think I will stay away from the Raiders as Davonte Adams is questionable. I'll post my actual bets tomorrow.
My luck has been crap lately. Best advice. See my bets, pick the opposite and buy a new house with the winnings.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Only placed two bets today....
Tennessee -11 over Kentucky
Bills moneyline -475
My betting slip from the Ravens since I posted I bet on them after they had won...
Nice hit! Good luck today. I’ll post my losers, errr my bets, later today
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
finally connected on a 3-teamer and carved into my losses. clearly it was the beer, so the next time i piece together a wild parlay i will flash a picture of 6 new friends.
everyone and their dog is on Cincy even without Chase, but i have a spooky feeling about tonight's game. (see what i did there?)
so naturally i'm just going to pretend like said spooky feeling doesn't exist and toss some spondulicks on the better team
-153.26
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Nice job Galaxy, I had noticed Derrick Henry came through for you big time with Tannehill out.
I've been really lucky lately. I decided not to bet on the Raiders because I thought Davonte Adams was
going to be out for the game, and then they get shut out by the Saints after scoring 38 points the week before.
Glad I opted out of that bet. The Raiders will be on my no bet list for the forseeable future with that kind of inconsistency
And when I was at the betting kiosk Saturday the line on the Bills-Packers was -10.5 and I said to myself if it drops
to -10 I'm betting on the Bills. I stared at the screen for a couple minutes and it stayed the same so I dropped
quite a few Benjamins' on the Bill's money line.
perkdog- I feel for you bud! Who would have thought Josh wouldn't pass for at least 230 yards.
@Darin based on what I've seen, you've been killing it this season. Good Lord you even had Tennessee over Kentucky.......that may have been your easiest win yet
Keep it rollin
Edit: by the way, terrible doesn't even begin to describe the Texans. the Titans basically told them what they were going to do on Sunday, and they still couldn't stop it. how the hell you allow Derrick Henry to go off for 200+ with a backup rookie QB is beyond me. stick 8 in the box the entire freaking game for crying out loud and make the kid beat you with his arm. nah, we'll allow Tennessee to do the obvious and leave imprints of the bottom of Henry's shoes on our faces. that's a very special kind of suckage.
Houston gets Philly on Thursday and I can promise you that I'll have some loot tied to the Eagles in some form.
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
the moral of tonight's story: either follow your gut or don't bet. i did neither of those things. i felt an upset brewing, it happened, and i lost money. that's the blueprint for being an unprofitable gambler. you're welcome.
locked this one in tonight. i think Philly could play 10 guys on each side of the ball and still beat Houston. and no part of me understands why the Vikings are only -3 against the Commodore 64's. imo the line should be double that, but i'll gladly take -175 for the win and run with it. if i get stung by Taylor Heinicke i will go buy 6 Heinekens and pound them.
-203.26
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Good luck @galaxy27
I like the Eagles. I'm not all that trusting of Cousins over Heinecke though, he is one of those guys that pulls stupid lucky plays out of his rear end from time to time
I like K-State over Texas Saturday. Texas is a 2.5 point favorite, they've been struggling this
year and last week K-State demolished Oklahoma State 48-0. And its at Manhattan (Kansas) where
they have a huge homefield advantage. The crowd will be pumped for this one.
Hopefully the Wildcats starting QB is still injured and the backup plays again.
Also do you guys have any thoughts on the big game, Tennessee against Georgia?
Georgia is at -8.5 which seems rather large since the Vols are playing some pretty good football.
I'm thinking of taking Tennessee in this game, I know Georgia has a stout defense but don't think
they've faced an offense as good as Tennessee.
sure why not
-203.26
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
I loved Coastal Carolina last night.
It made no sense that they were home underdogs so I jumped on it for a W