@Overdate said:
I think that, when the dust has settled, the proofs and reverse proofs will be more popular and in demand than the uncirculated coins.
As far as most collectors are concerned, the Morgan and Peace dollars are commemoratives. And when the mint offers commemoratives for sale, proofs outsell uncirculated strikes by around 3 to 1, even though the proofs cost slightly more. I believe this is representative of actual collector demand, since there appears to be little speculative interest in proof commemoratives. The proofs and reverse proofs should get an additional boost from the fact that both designs are very popular, and this is the first chance for the average collector to obtain either design in proof quality at an affordable price.
I thought this would be the case as well. But thinking ahead it may depend on the frequency of proof releases.
If the proofs with large mintages are every couple years then that will suppress pricing and demand.
Also if you are collecting the Morgan/Peace series for the long haul, and the Mint continues the series. then the 275K mintage may be light for future demand. The series may gain in popularity and cross pollination with the classic series could bring on more collectors of each.
So there are some unknowns at this point down the road. But if the product is stunning, then yes I could see the initial demand soaring.
@Overdate said:
I think that, when the dust has settled, the proofs and reverse proofs will be more popular and in demand than the uncirculated coins.
As far as most collectors are concerned, the Morgan and Peace dollars are commemoratives. And when the mint offers commemoratives for sale, proofs outsell uncirculated strikes by around 3 to 1, even though the proofs cost slightly more. I believe this is representative of actual collector demand, since there appears to be little speculative interest in proof commemoratives. The proofs and reverse proofs should get an additional boost from the fact that both designs are very popular, and this is the first chance for the average collector to obtain either design in proof quality at an affordable price.
Possibly correct on the initial proof demand. It will depend down the road if they release proofs every couple years with huge mintages, That will suppress price and demand.
Additionally the 2023 275K unc mintages could be low down the road if demand spikes from cross pollination of classic and modern collectors to keep the series going.
There are some unknowns, but yes if the product is stunning then demand could soar.
@RichR said:
How many of those "retuned" Proof dollars have the special COA???
How many of those "retuned" Proof Unc. dollars have the special COA???
Probably none since most returns are because of what buyer sees as a defect on the coin(s)
How many of those cancelled Unc. subscriptions have the special COA? Likely quite a few.
Woooo! I am thrilled to see my presale ms70 purchases have shipped! Almost as excited as I was to open the mint packaging.
After seeing the low quality of the peace dollars I got from the mint, I felt it was necessary to just get a MS70 and sell the raw coins.
I noticed pcgs ms70 final auction prices on eBay have been coming down a bit, with some lower than $120 each.
I hope the PR70 examples will be in a similar price range, I always wanted a proof Peace dollar and seeing a cameo Morgan will be satisfying.
The subscription stocklevels for the proofs should be locked at this point, but there may be small changes through release date.
.
Based on mint data, there will be an estimated 97,457 Morgan proofs and 99,727 Peace proofs available for sale on release day.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@SPalladino said:
The subscription stocklevels for the proofs should be locked at this point, but there may be small changes through release date.
.
Based on mint data, there will be an estimated 97,457 Morgan proofs and 99,727 Peace proofs available for sale on release day.
Personally it seems they probably should have made the mintage less or equal to the Unc. Will be interesting to see how long it takes to sell out.
@Jzyskowski1 said:
The mint should be locking in the proof enrollments very soon. Tomorrow? That will be an interesting look at things. 400,000 is alot of coins. Thanks 🙏
It is locked as of midnight yesterday. I learned that lesson on the uncs... It's Friday night not Sunday.
@Jzyskowski1 said:
The mint should be locking in the proof enrollments very soon. Tomorrow? That will be an interesting look at things. 400,000 is alot of coins. Thanks 🙏
Should be locked as of midnight yesterday. I learned that lesson on the uncs... It's Friday night not Sunday.
They said 72 hours and well, your right they didn’t follow that on the uncirculated coins. Haven’t received an email notification yet and that’s what made me think tonight or tomorrow. Anyone get the ole email yet? Thanks 🙏
@Jzyskowski1 said:
The mint should be locking in the proof enrollments very soon. Tomorrow? That will be an interesting look at things. 400,000 is alot of coins. Thanks 🙏
Should be locked as of midnight yesterday. I learned that lesson on the uncs... It's Friday night not Sunday.
They said 72 hours and well, your right they didn’t follow that on the uncirculated coins. Haven’t received an email notification yet and that’s what made me think tonight or tomorrow. Anyone get the ole email yet? Thanks 🙏
No email yet but it says TBD on the subs which is what happened last time on the uncs... And it was too late to make changes once that happened.
@Jzyskowski1 said:
The mint should be locking in the proof enrollments very soon. Tomorrow? That will be an interesting look at things. 400,000 is alot of coins. Thanks 🙏
Should be locked as of midnight yesterday. I learned that lesson on the uncs... It's Friday night not Sunday.
They said 72 hours and well, your right they didn’t follow that on the uncirculated coins. Haven’t received an email notification yet and that’s what made me think tonight or tomorrow. Anyone get the ole email yet? Thanks 🙏
@Jzyskowski1 said:
The mint should be locking in the proof enrollments very soon. Tomorrow? That will be an interesting look at things. 400,000 is alot of coins. Thanks 🙏
It is locked as of midnight yesterday. I learned that lesson on the uncs... It's Friday night not Sunday.
There is a way to pick that locked lock. I can not remember which one of the turned out to be mint dogs I used it on but there is still time. Delete your payment method used for subscriptions. Call your CC and ask them to deny up coming charge or charge pending from the mint. Easy Peasy
@SPalladino said:
The subscription stocklevels for the proofs should be locked at this point, but there may be small changes through release date.
.
Based on mint data, there will be an estimated 97,457 Morgan proofs and 99,727 Peace proofs available for sale on release day.
Personally it seems they probably should have made the mintage less or equal to the Unc. Will be interesting to see how long it takes to sell out.
Seems to me they might as well make the mintages unlimited.
@Jzyskowski1 said:
Just got this. Does it mean above the 200?
>
Good thing Vault Box wasn't holding a > @spyglassdesign said:
@SPalladino said:
The subscription stocklevels for the proofs should be locked at this point, but there may be small changes through release date.
.
Based on mint data, there will be an estimated 97,457 Morgan proofs and 99,727 Peace proofs available for sale on release day.
Personally it seems they probably should have made the mintage less or equal to the Unc. Will be interesting to see how long it takes to sell out.
Seems to me they might as well make the mintages unlimited.
I guess it all depends on the goal of the mint... Is it to have something that will appraise potentially in a few decades or more, or to have a constant cash flow. If it's the latter then yeah, they should mint as many as people will buy. If it's the former, to make a collectors item, then a lower mintage is ultimately better.
Based on the mintage it seems they estimated more demand then the uncs, but still want to keep it more of a collectors item than a coin worth the price of the silver in it.
@Jzyskowski1 said:
Just got this. Does it mean above the 200?
>
Good thing Vault Box wasn't holding a > @spyglassdesign said:
@SPalladino said:
The subscription stocklevels for the proofs should be locked at this point, but there may be small changes through release date.
.
Based on mint data, there will be an estimated 97,457 Morgan proofs and 99,727 Peace proofs available for sale on release day.
Personally it seems they probably should have made the mintage less or equal to the Unc. Will be interesting to see how long it takes to sell out.
Seems to me they might as well make the mintages unlimited.
I guess it all depends on the goal of the mint... Is it to have something that will appraise potentially in a few decades or more, or to have a constant cash flow. If it's the latter then yeah, they should mint as many as people will buy. If it's the former, to make a collectors item, then a lower mintage is ultimately better.
Based on the mintage it seems they estimated more demand then the uncs, but still want to keep it more of a collectors item than a coin worth the price of the silver in it.
But if they make the mintages lower, the "true collectors" might not be able to get one.
@Jzyskowski1 said:
Just got this. Does it mean above the 200?
>
Good thing Vault Box wasn't holding a > @spyglassdesign said:
@SPalladino said:
The subscription stocklevels for the proofs should be locked at this point, but there may be small changes through release date.
.
Based on mint data, there will be an estimated 97,457 Morgan proofs and 99,727 Peace proofs available for sale on release day.
Personally it seems they probably should have made the mintage less or equal to the Unc. Will be interesting to see how long it takes to sell out.
Seems to me they might as well make the mintages unlimited.
I guess it all depends on the goal of the mint... Is it to have something that will appraise potentially in a few decades or more, or to have a constant cash flow. If it's the latter then yeah, they should mint as many as people will buy. If it's the former, to make a collectors item, then a lower mintage is ultimately better.
Based on the mintage it seems they estimated more demand then the uncs, but still want to keep it more of a collectors item than a coin worth the price of the silver in it.
But if they make the mintages lower, the "true collectors" might not be able to get one.
Yeah I'm sure it's a tough balancing act... I'm sure there's a lot of collectors that don't know that you can buy them from the mint as well.
@SPalladino said:
The subscription stocklevels for the proofs should be locked at this point, but there may be small changes through release date.
.
Based on mint data, there will be an estimated 97,457 Morgan proofs and 99,727 Peace proofs available for sale on release day.
Personally it seems they probably should have made the mintage less or equal to the Unc. Will be interesting to see how long it takes to sell out.
Seems to me they might as well make the mintages unlimited.
Not really. As you well know, their goal is to sell as many as they can, at as high a price as they can reasonably charge. As you also well know, the more limited the mintage, the more desired any given product is.
An unlimited mintage would actually result in significantly lower sales than the 275,000 they sold of the uncs, and as many of the proofs as they end up selling. And, as we also know, limiting the mintages to the 175,000-200,000 they made in 2021 would only serve to piss off people who get shut out, AND cause them to leave the money on the table that would then be captured by flippers.
For now, they got it exactly right at 275,000 for the uncs. They sold out, and have maintained value for the month after release, which is really all anyone can reasonably expect. Everyone easily got as many as they want, but no one made easy money at the expense of shutting other people out. AND, no one got hurt by getting stuck with something that immediately lost 20%+ of its value. In addition, large dealers made a fortune moving graded volume at reasonable prices.
Whatever happens from here on out is beyond anyone's control. Certainly the Mint's. But the goal with products like these is absolutely not to flood the market and cause everyone to quickly lose interest. Nor to sell them as bullion, at prices similar to ASEs.
The 400,000 for the proofs was a reasonable guess based on the fact that proofs are always bigger sellers than uncs. If 100,000 remain unsold and they crash in the secondary market, mintages will be adjusted in the future. My guess is that these will perform similarly to the uncs. If not, maybe scale them back to 350K next year.
@SPalladino said:
The subscription stocklevels for the proofs should be locked at this point, but there may be small changes through release date.
.
Based on mint data, there will be an estimated 97,457 Morgan proofs and 99,727 Peace proofs available for sale on release day.
Personally it seems they probably should have made the mintage less or equal to the Unc. Will be interesting to see how long it takes to sell out.
Seems to me they might as well make the mintages unlimited.
Not really. As you well know, their goal is to sell as many as they can, at as high a price as they can reasonably charge. As you also well know, the more limited the mintage, the more desired any given product is.
An unlimited mintage would actually result in significantly lower sales than the 275,000 they sold of the uncs, and as many of the proofs as they end up selling. And, as we also know, limiting the mintages to the 175,000-200,000 they made in 2021 would only serve to piss off people who get shut out, AND cause them to leave the money on the table that would then be captured by flippers.
For now, they got it exactly right at 275,000 for the uncs. They sold out, and have maintained value for the month after release, which is really all anyone can reasonably expect. Everyone easily got as many as they want, but no one made easy money at the expense of shutting other people out. AND, no one got hurt by getting stuck with something that immediately lost 20%+ of its value. In addition, large dealers made a fortune moving graded volume at reasonable prices.
Whatever happens from here on out is beyond anyone's control. Certainly the Mint's. But the goal with products like these is absolutely not to flood the market and cause everyone to quickly lose interest. Nor to sell them as bullion, at prices similar to ASEs.
The 400,000 for the proofs was a reasonable guess based on the fact that proofs are always bigger sellers than uncs. If 100,000 remain unsold and they crash in the secondary market, mintages will be adjusted in the future. My guess is that these will perform similarly to the uncs. If not, maybe scale them back to 350K next year.
I think you miss the sarcasm. Of course, so do all the "true collector flippers".
Everyone wants a mintage that satisfies their selfish needs. They need to be sure to be allowed to buy as many as they need for their collection plus a couple to flip while making sure it is scarce enough to protect the value is their "precious".
Hard to say how much lower it will go, but way too early to draw a conclusion IMO.
I appreciate your opinion, but having followed the 2021 Morgan and Peace uncs, and now the collector submission rates for the 2023 Morgan and Peace uncs, I would estimate that the overall rate of 70s in 6-12 months for the 2023 Morgan and Peace uncs will be likely not higher than 92% and not likely lower than 85%. And if I had to put a more precise number on it, I would estimate 90% for the Morgan uncs and 88% for the Peace uncs.
.
2021 data from 12/21/2021 to 7/23/2023:
I got really unlucky then. Ordered one of each and usually I can't find any defects but both of mine had obvious ticks and nicks, they might have been 68's.
@SPalladino said:
The subscription stocklevels for the proofs should be locked at this point, but there may be small changes through release date.
.
Based on mint data, there will be an estimated 97,457 Morgan proofs and 99,727 Peace proofs available for sale on release day.
Personally it seems they probably should have made the mintage less or equal to the Unc. Will be interesting to see how long it takes to sell out.
Seems to me they might as well make the mintages unlimited.
Not really. As you well know, their goal is to sell as many as they can, at as high a price as they can reasonably charge. As you also well know, the more limited the mintage, the more desired any given product is.
An unlimited mintage would actually result in significantly lower sales than the 275,000 they sold of the uncs, and as many of the proofs as they end up selling. And, as we also know, limiting the mintages to the 175,000-200,000 they made in 2021 would only serve to piss off people who get shut out, AND cause them to leave the money on the table that would then be captured by flippers.
For now, they got it exactly right at 275,000 for the uncs. They sold out, and have maintained value for the month after release, which is really all anyone can reasonably expect. Everyone easily got as many as they want, but no one made easy money at the expense of shutting other people out. AND, no one got hurt by getting stuck with something that immediately lost 20%+ of its value. In addition, large dealers made a fortune moving graded volume at reasonable prices.
Whatever happens from here on out is beyond anyone's control. Certainly the Mint's. But the goal with products like these is absolutely not to flood the market and cause everyone to quickly lose interest. Nor to sell them as bullion, at prices similar to ASEs.
The 400,000 for the proofs was a reasonable guess based on the fact that proofs are always bigger sellers than uncs. If 100,000 remain unsold and they crash in the secondary market, mintages will be adjusted in the future. My guess is that these will perform similarly to the uncs. If not, maybe scale them back to 350K next year.
I think you miss the sarcasm. Of course, so do all the "true collector flippers".
Everyone wants a mintage that satisfies their selfish needs. They need to be sure to be allowed to buy as many as they need for their collection plus a couple to flip while making sure it is scarce enough to protect the value is their "precious".
I guess I did miss the sarcasm. And, for once, I 1,000,000% agree with you.
Everyone is frustrated when they can't buy as many as they want of whatever the Mint is selling, while at the same time expecting everything they buy to immediately quadruple in value, and they never see the irony in the conflicting objectives. They reduce subscriptions that are not guaranteed to be home runs, while failing to realize that the reason home runs are home runs is precisely because they are not easily and widely available.
Hard to say how much lower it will go, but way too early to draw a conclusion IMO.
I appreciate your opinion, but having followed the 2021 Morgan and Peace uncs, and now the collector submission rates for the 2023 Morgan and Peace uncs, I would estimate that the overall rate of 70s in 6-12 months for the 2023 Morgan and Peace uncs will be likely not higher than 92% and not likely lower than 85%. And if I had to put a more precise number on it, I would estimate 90% for the Morgan uncs and 88% for the Peace uncs.
.
2021 data from 12/21/2021 to 7/23/2023:
I got really unlucky then. Ordered one of each and usually I can't find any defects but both of mine had obvious ticks and nicks, they might have been 68's.
Keep in mind that WRT the grading populations at PCGS and NGC, the uncs with "obvious ticks and nicks" may not all be sent in, which would preserve the 92-85% 70 rate of which I wrote. IOW, that some collectors might pre-screen out the ones that have no chance of 70 has the opposite effect (the floor effect) of the big boys and their minimum grade 70 requests (the ceiling effect).
. Some of what is seen with the total number graded might be interpreted as uncs with "obvious ticks and nicks" are simply not sent in. For example, 30,479 Morgan uncs have been graded by PCGS and NGC, compared to 27,557 Peace uncs (nearly identical sales numbers). Possibly, fewer submissions of the Peace uncs due to coin quality. And even with fewer submissions (perhaps more screened out and not submitted), the Peace unc %70 rate 3% lower than the Morgan unc in collector submissions (base label and First Strike).
.
Yes you were unlucky, but perhaps your experience was not all that atypical.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@SPalladino said:
The subscription stocklevels for the proofs should be locked at this point, but there may be small changes through release date.
.
Based on mint data, there will be an estimated 97,457 Morgan proofs and 99,727 Peace proofs available for sale on release day.
Personally it seems they probably should have made the mintage less or equal to the Unc. Will be interesting to see how long it takes to sell out.
Seems to me they might as well make the mintages unlimited.
Not really. As you well know, their goal is to sell as many as they can, at as high a price as they can reasonably charge. As you also well know, the more limited the mintage, the more desired any given product is.
An unlimited mintage would actually result in significantly lower sales than the 275,000 they sold of the uncs, and as many of the proofs as they end up selling. And, as we also know, limiting the mintages to the 175,000-200,000 they made in 2021 would only serve to piss off people who get shut out, AND cause them to leave the money on the table that would then be captured by flippers.
For now, they got it exactly right at 275,000 for the uncs. They sold out, and have maintained value for the month after release, which is really all anyone can reasonably expect. Everyone easily got as many as they want, but no one made easy money at the expense of shutting other people out. AND, no one got hurt by getting stuck with something that immediately lost 20%+ of its value. In addition, large dealers made a fortune moving graded volume at reasonable prices.
Whatever happens from here on out is beyond anyone's control. Certainly the Mint's. But the goal with products like these is absolutely not to flood the market and cause everyone to quickly lose interest. Nor to sell them as bullion, at prices similar to ASEs.
The 400,000 for the proofs was a reasonable guess based on the fact that proofs are always bigger sellers than uncs. If 100,000 remain unsold and they crash in the secondary market, mintages will be adjusted in the future. My guess is that these will perform similarly to the uncs. If not, maybe scale them back to 350K next year.
I think you miss the sarcasm. Of course, so do all the "true collector flippers".
Everyone wants a mintage that satisfies their selfish needs. They need to be sure to be allowed to buy as many as they need for their collection plus a couple to flip while making sure it is scarce enough to protect the value is their "precious".
I guess I did miss the sarcasm. And, for once, I 1,000,000% agree with you.
Everyone is frustrated when they can't buy as many as they want of whatever the Mint is selling, while at the same time expecting everything they buy to immediately quadruple in value, and they never see the irony in the conflicting objectives. They reduce subscriptions that are not guaranteed to be home runs, while failing to realize that the reason home runs are home runs is precisely because they are not easily and widely available.
@SilverPlatinum said:
Why my subscription now showing "TBD" for the shipping date for the Morgan and Peace Proofs!
Did the mint change their mind about the shipping date?
Nope that means they are processing orders starting shipping Monday! 👍
@SilverPlatinum said:
Why my subscription now showing "TBD" for the shipping date for the Morgan and Peace Proofs!
Did the mint change their mind about the shipping date?
Nope that means they are processing orders starting shipping Monday! 👍
Okay thanks. My credit card was not charged so far......
@SilverPlatinum said:
Why my subscription now showing "TBD" for the shipping date for the Morgan and Peace Proofs!
Did the mint change their mind about the shipping date?
Nope that means they are processing orders starting shipping Monday! 👍
Okay thanks. My credit card was not charged so far......
They have thousands, if not tens of thousands of orders to process. It could take a little time 😀
Subscription reductions for the Morgan and Peace proofs continue to be tallied more than 15 hours after the mint said it would lock subscriptions:
.
In turn, the estimated number of coins that will be available for purchase on release day climb over 100K for each of the proofs:
.
The RP set continues to remain essentially fully subscribed, and according to mint numbers, will have about 25K sets available for sale on release day...but there are 100 days for the numbers to potentially change.
For the first time in a week, the 2024 Morgan and Peace uncs have had a modest increase in subscriptions.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@SPalladino said: Subscription reductions for the Morgan and Peace proofs continue to be tallied more than 15 hours after the mint said it would lock subscriptions:
.
In turn, the estimated number of coins that will be available for purchase on release day climb over 100K for each of the proofs:
.
The RP set continues to remain essentially fully subscribed, and according to mint numbers, will have about 25K sets available for sale on release day...but there are 100 days for the numbers to potentially change.
For the first time in a week, the 2024 Morgan and Peace uncs have had a modest increase in subscriptions.
Question: Is the 10% held for the release date is for sure?
@SPalladino said: Subscription reductions for the Morgan and Peace proofs continue to be tallied more than 15 hours after the mint said it would lock subscriptions:
.
In turn, the estimated number of coins that will be available for purchase on release day climb over 100K for each of the proofs:
.
The RP set continues to remain essentially fully subscribed, and according to mint numbers, will have about 25K sets available for sale on release day...but there are 100 days for the numbers to potentially change.
For the first time in a week, the 2024 Morgan and Peace uncs have had a modest increase in subscriptions.
Question: Is the 10% held for the release date is for sure?
It looks to be more like 25% based on the current numbers... But yes I believe the 10% is done.
@SilverPlatinum said:
Why my subscription now showing "TBD" for the shipping date for the Morgan and Peace Proofs!
Did the mint change their mind about the shipping date?
They roll over to the next year subscription at some point after they have fulfilled this year's.
@SilverPlatinum said:
Question: Is the 10% held for the release date is for sure?
.
The 10% held for day of release is the minimum, so that there will be at least 10% of the mintage available. That 10% held back is not accessible by subscription. To that minimum of 10% of the mintage, all of the mintage originally available for subscription, but not subscribed (eg, currently 61,462 Morgan proofs and 63,916 Peace proofs) are rolled into the day of release sales. If a product is fully subscribed, there will still be 10% of the mintage available for sale on release day. But if a product is not fully subscribed (like these proofs), then there will be 10% of the total mintage plus whatever is unsubscribed.
.
Also not accessible by subscription, but not made available on day of release sales:
-ABPP purchases
-Coins held back for on-site branch mint sales, and in this case, ANA sales. (I am unaware whether the mint holds back coins for exchanges/returns.)
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Here is the problem when 95% are graded “70”
Quality control problems ensue—look at large dig in field to left of mouth
This coin currently sits in a MS70 FS holder from our hosts
@coiner said:
Here is the problem when 95% are graded “70”
Quality control problems ensue—look at large dig in field to left of mouth
This coin currently sits in a MS70 FS holder from our hosts
Such an obvious fault, one might wonder how big the submission was and whether there is a possibility of label "mechanical error".
And, for clarification, the rate of 70s for FS labels is 93%, not that it matters much to this issue.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@coiner said:
It is not debris—it is a scratch in the surface of the coin
It’s disheartening that this would be in a 70 slab.
Agreed. I would expect better from our hosts... I can't imagine how that could pass as a 70...
It happens way too often. The PCGS MS70 Morgan I received has scuff marks around three of the stars on the obverse. The raw coin I got from the mint looks way better and flawless to the naked eye. I have got way too many coins with spots, dings and scratches in 70 slabs over the years. That is why I prefer raw coins as opposed to damaged coins in a slab
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
@coiner said:
It is not debris—it is a scratch in the surface of the coin
It’s disheartening that this would be in a 70 slab.
Agreed. I would expect better from our hosts... I can't imagine how that could pass as a 70...
It happens way too often. The PCGS MS70 Morgan I received has scuff marks around three of the stars on the obverse. The raw coin I got from the mint looks way better and flawless to the naked eye. I have got way too many coins with spots, dings and scratches in 70 slabs over the years. That is why I prefer raw coins as opposed to damaged coins in a slab
Did you return it? Or did you submit it? If the big submitters get enough returns, then maybe they will improve their standards.
PCGS modern 70’s, as many can attest, can be a mixed bag as not all 70s are created equal. I saw this most recently with the gold mercury dimes, the palladium eagles, and others long before that.
I don’t take 70s for granted anymore. If they are near the same price as a 69 I will take the slab and the coin.
Otherwise, I will pass. Too many variances in perceived 70 quality. Fortunately, when I sent one of my Palladium eagles back to a bigger dealer in MS 70, they replaced it with a much better version. The previous was sad.
And who here wants the job of grading thousands of these! UGH.
Comments
I thought this would be the case as well. But thinking ahead it may depend on the frequency of proof releases.
If the proofs with large mintages are every couple years then that will suppress pricing and demand.
Also if you are collecting the Morgan/Peace series for the long haul, and the Mint continues the series. then the 275K mintage may be light for future demand. The series may gain in popularity and cross pollination with the classic series could bring on more collectors of each.
So there are some unknowns at this point down the road. But if the product is stunning, then yes I could see the initial demand soaring.
Possibly correct on the initial proof demand. It will depend down the road if they release proofs every couple years with huge mintages, That will suppress price and demand.
Additionally the 2023 275K unc mintages could be low down the road if demand spikes from cross pollination of classic and modern collectors to keep the series going.
There are some unknowns, but yes if the product is stunning then demand could soar.
How many of those "retuned" Proof Unc. dollars have the special COA???
Probably none since most returns are because of what buyer sees as a defect on the coin(s)
How many of those cancelled Unc. subscriptions have the special COA? Likely quite a few.
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
Woooo! I am thrilled to see my presale ms70 purchases have shipped! Almost as excited as I was to open the mint packaging.
After seeing the low quality of the peace dollars I got from the mint, I felt it was necessary to just get a MS70 and sell the raw coins.
I noticed pcgs ms70 final auction prices on eBay have been coming down a bit, with some lower than $120 each.
I hope the PR70 examples will be in a similar price range, I always wanted a proof Peace dollar and seeing a cameo Morgan will be satisfying.
http://www.pcgs.com/SetRegistry/publishedset.aspx?s=142753
https://www.autismforums.com/media/albums/acrylic-colors-by-rocco.291/
The subscription stocklevels for the proofs should be locked at this point, but there may be small changes through release date.
.
Based on mint data, there will be an estimated 97,457 Morgan proofs and 99,727 Peace proofs available for sale on release day.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Personally it seems they probably should have made the mintage less or equal to the Unc. Will be interesting to see how long it takes to sell out.
https://www.the4thcoin.com
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The mint should be locking in the proof enrollments very soon. Tomorrow? That will be an interesting look at things.
400,000 is alot of coins.
Thanks 🙏
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
It is locked as of midnight yesterday. I learned that lesson on the uncs... It's Friday night not Sunday.
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They said 72 hours and well, your right they didn’t follow that on the uncirculated coins. Haven’t received an email notification yet and that’s what made me think tonight or tomorrow. Anyone get the ole email yet? Thanks 🙏
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
No email yet but it says TBD on the subs which is what happened last time on the uncs... And it was too late to make changes once that happened.
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Well I did get this email a couple days ago...
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Here’s the info from my order stuff
TBA has changed from yesterday 🥳
You are probably right 👍🏼
Here’s my info from this morning’s uncirculated fun.
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
Went thru 500 sealed Peace dollars in the last few weeks and not one was a directors strike.
Thanks for posting. That’s a chunk of em. We know where 20 of em are. ANA show.
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
There is a way to pick that locked lock. I can not remember which one of the turned out to be mint dogs I used it on but there is still time. Delete your payment method used for subscriptions. Call your CC and ask them to deny up coming charge or charge pending from the mint. Easy Peasy
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Good thingholding a > @spyglassdesign said:
Seems to me they might as well make the mintages unlimited.
I guess it all depends on the goal of the mint... Is it to have something that will appraise potentially in a few decades or more, or to have a constant cash flow. If it's the latter then yeah, they should mint as many as people will buy. If it's the former, to make a collectors item, then a lower mintage is ultimately better.
Based on the mintage it seems they estimated more demand then the uncs, but still want to keep it more of a collectors item than a coin worth the price of the silver in it.
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But if they make the mintages lower, the "true collectors" might not be able to get one.
Yeah I'm sure it's a tough balancing act... I'm sure there's a lot of collectors that don't know that you can buy them from the mint as well.
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No proofs for me. Released into the wild. I may find smoe interest in the RPs.
fka renman95, Sep 2005, 7,000 posts
Not really. As you well know, their goal is to sell as many as they can, at as high a price as they can reasonably charge. As you also well know, the more limited the mintage, the more desired any given product is.
An unlimited mintage would actually result in significantly lower sales than the 275,000 they sold of the uncs, and as many of the proofs as they end up selling. And, as we also know, limiting the mintages to the 175,000-200,000 they made in 2021 would only serve to piss off people who get shut out, AND cause them to leave the money on the table that would then be captured by flippers.
For now, they got it exactly right at 275,000 for the uncs. They sold out, and have maintained value for the month after release, which is really all anyone can reasonably expect. Everyone easily got as many as they want, but no one made easy money at the expense of shutting other people out. AND, no one got hurt by getting stuck with something that immediately lost 20%+ of its value. In addition, large dealers made a fortune moving graded volume at reasonable prices.
Whatever happens from here on out is beyond anyone's control. Certainly the Mint's. But the goal with products like these is absolutely not to flood the market and cause everyone to quickly lose interest. Nor to sell them as bullion, at prices similar to ASEs.
The 400,000 for the proofs was a reasonable guess based on the fact that proofs are always bigger sellers than uncs. If 100,000 remain unsold and they crash in the secondary market, mintages will be adjusted in the future. My guess is that these will perform similarly to the uncs. If not, maybe scale them back to 350K next year.
I think you miss the sarcasm. Of course, so do all the "true collector flippers".
Everyone wants a mintage that satisfies their selfish needs. They need to be sure to be allowed to buy as many as they need for their collection plus a couple to flip while making sure it is scarce enough to protect the value is their "precious".
I got really unlucky then. Ordered one of each and usually I can't find any defects but both of mine had obvious ticks and nicks, they might have been 68's.
I guess I did miss the sarcasm. And, for once, I 1,000,000% agree with you.
Everyone is frustrated when they can't buy as many as they want of whatever the Mint is selling, while at the same time expecting everything they buy to immediately quadruple in value, and they never see the irony in the conflicting objectives. They reduce subscriptions that are not guaranteed to be home runs, while failing to realize that the reason home runs are home runs is precisely because they are not easily and widely available.
Keep in mind that WRT the grading populations at PCGS and NGC, the uncs with "obvious ticks and nicks" may not all be sent in, which would preserve the 92-85% 70 rate of which I wrote. IOW, that some collectors might pre-screen out the ones that have no chance of 70 has the opposite effect (the floor effect) of the big boys and their minimum grade 70 requests (the ceiling effect).
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Some of what is seen with the total number graded might be interpreted as uncs with "obvious ticks and nicks" are simply not sent in. For example, 30,479 Morgan uncs have been graded by PCGS and NGC, compared to 27,557 Peace uncs (nearly identical sales numbers). Possibly, fewer submissions of the Peace uncs due to coin quality. And even with fewer submissions (perhaps more screened out and not submitted), the Peace unc %70 rate 3% lower than the Morgan unc in collector submissions (base label and First Strike).
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Yes you were unlucky, but perhaps your experience was not all that atypical.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
yup. Totally agree.
My card was charged at 3:05 AM EDT this morning (Sunday, August 6) for a Morgan proof.
Yep, mine too.
Regardless of mintage and availability issues...I'm really looking forward to receiving the proofs...I can only assume they'll look stunning!
I ordered a pair of 70 proofs to avoid the haze I sometimes get when purchasing proofs.
Hopefully the 70s won't have the haze. ...
Why my subscription now showing "TBD" for the shipping date for the Morgan and Peace Proofs!
Did the mint change their mind about the shipping date?
Nope that means they are processing orders starting shipping Monday! 👍
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Okay thanks. My credit card was not charged so far......
They have thousands, if not tens of thousands of orders to process. It could take a little time 😀
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Subscription reductions for the Morgan and Peace proofs continue to be tallied more than 15 hours after the mint said it would lock subscriptions:
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In turn, the estimated number of coins that will be available for purchase on release day climb over 100K for each of the proofs:
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The RP set continues to remain essentially fully subscribed, and according to mint numbers, will have about 25K sets available for sale on release day...but there are 100 days for the numbers to potentially change.
For the first time in a week, the 2024 Morgan and Peace uncs have had a modest increase in subscriptions.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Question: Is the 10% held for the release date is for sure?
It looks to be more like 25% based on the current numbers... But yes I believe the 10% is done.
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They roll over to the next year subscription at some point after they have fulfilled this year's.
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The 10% held for day of release is the minimum, so that there will be at least 10% of the mintage available. That 10% held back is not accessible by subscription. To that minimum of 10% of the mintage, all of the mintage originally available for subscription, but not subscribed (eg, currently 61,462 Morgan proofs and 63,916 Peace proofs) are rolled into the day of release sales. If a product is fully subscribed, there will still be 10% of the mintage available for sale on release day. But if a product is not fully subscribed (like these proofs), then there will be 10% of the total mintage plus whatever is unsubscribed.
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Also not accessible by subscription, but not made available on day of release sales:
-ABPP purchases
-Coins held back for on-site branch mint sales, and in this case, ANA sales. (I am unaware whether the mint holds back coins for exchanges/returns.)
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Here is the problem when 95% are graded “70”
Quality control problems ensue—look at large dig in field to left of mouth
This coin currently sits in a MS70 FS holder from our hosts
It is not debris—it is a scratch in the surface of the coin
It’s disheartening that this would be in a 70 slab.
Such an obvious fault, one might wonder how big the submission was and whether there is a possibility of label "mechanical error".
And, for clarification, the rate of 70s for FS labels is 93%, not that it matters much to this issue.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Agreed. I would expect better from our hosts... I can't imagine how that could pass as a 70...
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It looks like that could have been picked out without magnification… easily.
Ugh.
It happens way too often. The PCGS MS70 Morgan I received has scuff marks around three of the stars on the obverse. The raw coin I got from the mint looks way better and flawless to the naked eye. I have got way too many coins with spots, dings and scratches in 70 slabs over the years. That is why I prefer raw coins as opposed to damaged coins in a slab
This is the reason why there’s no need to prescreen the coins. Whoever thinks the big boys prescreen their groups of 100s of these is a bit naive.
Did you return it? Or did you submit it? If the big submitters get enough returns, then maybe they will improve their standards.
PCGS modern 70’s, as many can attest, can be a mixed bag as not all 70s are created equal. I saw this most recently with the gold mercury dimes, the palladium eagles, and others long before that.
I don’t take 70s for granted anymore. If they are near the same price as a 69 I will take the slab and the coin.
Otherwise, I will pass. Too many variances in perceived 70 quality. Fortunately, when I sent one of my Palladium eagles back to a bigger dealer in MS 70, they replaced it with a much better version. The previous was sad.
And who here wants the job of grading thousands of these! UGH.
My box of 10 had 2 that are flawless, 8 have scrapes, scrathces, abrasions. Returned the 8, kept 2. Mint was quick refunding balance to my surprise.