I think the Fed has missed the curve and will chase it for a couple years.... those 2 years will deplete all the excesses methodically leg by leg.... I wouldn't want to be Michael Saylor of Microstrategy or anything... b/c cash is king and leverage is BIG TROUBLE.... Margin calls coming Michael.
If I were to compare it ( this economy) to the past 60 yrs, I'd liken this economy to the 70's. Only we rationed gas back then. And muscle cars were the norm. And fuel consumption was sky high. And people actually waited in long lines to fill up. We survived because we were resilient. Racism, sexism and every other "ism" was just as alive then, as now. However, now ; more people believe propaganda than truth, because it is the news.
Maybe. However, I do not listen to nor do I read the b.s. that's coming from an American self-taught economic forecaster and convicted felon who spent 11 years in jail for cheating investors out of $700 million.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Maybe. However, I do not listen to nor do I read the b.s. that's coming from an American self-taught economic forecaster and convicted felon who spent 11 years in jail for cheating investors out of $700 million.
His time in jail was for several contempt of court charges for refusing to turn over assets to the court that he argued were rightfully his. As for his predictions, his computer program "Socrates" is recognized world-wide for its accuracy. So yea, don't listen to him. LOL
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Unfortunately I'm holding onto dollars as the best of a bunch of bad options.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
So, we are entering into a debt crisis with the EU financial system in the crosshairs. Armstrong says, “This is why they are pushing for war. . . . They think they can create a new monetary system, and to do so, they need war. They think they can keep it just conventional. Then the United Nations can emerge as the white knight and the peacemaker. Therefore, we get another Bretton Woods. You can redesign all the currencies, and when you do that, you wipe out all the debt. That is what is on the agenda. . . .
Maybe. However, I do not listen to nor do I read the b.s. that's coming from an American self-taught economic forecaster and convicted felon who spent 11 years in jail for cheating investors out of $700 million.
His time in jail was for several contempt of court charges for refusing to turn over assets to the court that he argued were rightfully his. As for his predictions, his computer program "Socrates" is recognized world-wide for its accuracy. So yea, don't listen to him. LOL
His model may be recognized by you and his followers, but most definitely is not world wide recognized for its so called "accuracy" Is his bs the reason for you being so inaccurate over the last 10+ years in your predictions?
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Maybe. However, I do not listen to nor do I read the b.s. that's coming from an American self-taught economic forecaster and convicted felon who spent 11 years in jail for cheating investors out of $700 million.
His time in jail was for several contempt of court charges for refusing to turn over assets to the court that he argued were rightfully his. As for his predictions, his computer program "Socrates" is recognized world-wide for its accuracy. So yea, don't listen to him. LOL
Not all of his time in jail was for contempt. And you could argue none of it was. He just got credit for time served.
My favorite part of the article were all the times he decouples himself from his computer.
His model may be recognized by you and his followers, but most definitely is not world wide recognized for its so called "accuracy" Is his bs the reason for you being so inaccurate over the last 10+ years in your predictions?
You mean like when I was being laughed at for warning about how all the money printing and debt would lead to inflation? Or that buying silver eagles (while premiums were low) should be one's silver preference? LOL
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
His model may be recognized by you and his followers, but most definitely is not world wide recognized for its so called "accuracy" Is his bs the reason for you being so inaccurate over the last 10+ years in your predictions?
You mean like when I was being laughed at for warning about how all the money printing and debt would lead to inflation? Or that buying silver eagles (while premiums were low) should be one's silver preference? LOL
Anyone with a bid of common sense would have come to the same conclusion regarding the debt. Inflation is part of economic cycles. True, the premiums were lower on ASE's. when the price of silver was $30+ per oz. Not much of a win so far.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
His model may be recognized by you and his followers, but most definitely is not world wide recognized for its so called "accuracy" Is his bs the reason for you being so inaccurate over the last 10+ years in your predictions?
You mean like when I was being laughed at for warning about how all the money printing and debt would lead to inflation? Or that buying silver eagles (while premiums were low) should be one's silver preference? LOL
Anyone with a bid of common sense would have come to the same conclusion regarding the debt. Inflation is part of economic cycles. True, the premiums were lower on ASE's. when the price of silver was $30+ per oz. Not much of a win so far.
so in 2025 are you gonna say "anyone with a bit of common sense" could have come to the same conclusion that Armstrong did about 2023? LOL
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
His model may be recognized by you and his followers, but most definitely is not world wide recognized for its so called "accuracy" Is his bs the reason for you being so inaccurate over the last 10+ years in your predictions?
You mean like when I was being laughed at for warning about how all the money printing and debt would lead to inflation? Or that buying silver eagles (while premiums were low) should be one's silver preference? LOL
Anyone with a bid of common sense would have come to the same conclusion regarding the debt. Inflation is part of economic cycles. True, the premiums were lower on ASE's. when the price of silver was $30+ per oz. Not much of a win so far.
so in 2025 are you gonna say "anyone with a bit of common sense" could have come to the same conclusion that Armstrong did about 2023? LOL
What a nightmarish thought. Never gonna happen though.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
We've have 13 recessions since WW2 and we'll probably have 13 more over the next 80 years. Big deal.😴
Recessions can cause high unemployment, business failures, and bankruptcies as a result of diminished demand from consumers and businesses. Yes, bid deal, especially when record debt is brought into the equation. It will magnify the financial suffering.
Also, consider the amount of QE that will be required to bandage it.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
@blitzdude said:
These days debt doesn't really mean anything. Just a few digits on some computer screen. Enjoy life brother, it's short and precious.
RGDS!
sovereign (national) debt is not the kind of debt that will make Americans suffer in a recession. It is the personal and corporate debt that will make a recession much more painful. It will exponentially magnify bankruptcies, loan defaults and business failures. The dominoes will fall a dozen at a time.
PS: i notice you believe the FED has solved all the problems. Have you considered that maybe they are responsible for most all the economic problems?
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
@derryb said:
sovereign (national) debt is not the kind of debt that will make Americans suffer in a recession. It is the personal and corporate debt that will make a recession much more painful. It will exponentially magnify bankruptcies, loan defaults and business failures. The dominoes will fall a dozen at a time.
And this is why facts matter. Household debt servicing levels are near lowest in 40 years and way below 2008.
We've have 13 recessions since WW2 and we'll probably have 13 more over the next 80 years. Big deal.😴
Recessions can cause high unemployment, business failures, and bankruptcies as a result of diminished demand from consumers and businesses. Yes, bid deal, especially when record debt is brought into the equation. It will magnify the financial suffering.
Also, consider the amount of QE that will be required to bandage it.
Perhaps you would benefit from a study on unemployment and recessions.
In all but 2 recessions over the last 70 years unemployment peaked at less that 8%. That means 92% are still working. And since 5% of workers are marginal or undesirable or unreliable, etc, the number if real quality workers that lose their jobs is relatively small.
Today, we are way above peak employment and those marginal workers are pushing wages higher as businesses beg for help. A slowdown to weed them out, or for them to get religion and realize they need to be productive members of society would beneficial to all.
100's of thousands of business go bankrupt every year. That was suspended with #45's gross Govt bailout programs. Now without free handouts they will fail. Good. Let's get those more ambitious folk working for businesses that are better run and more stable. Efficiency and productivity will increase. Prices will fall.
@derryb said:
sovereign (national) debt is not the kind of debt that will make Americans suffer in a recession. It is the personal and corporate debt that will make a recession much more painful. It will exponentially magnify bankruptcies, loan defaults and business failures. The dominoes will fall a dozen at a time.
And this is why facts matter. Household debt servicing levels are near lowest in 40 years and way below 2008.
Yes, this is WHY FACTS MATTER. You choose to measure household debt by looking at it as a percentage of disposable income. I'm sure we could find something else to compare it to and make debt appear even smaller. I used the term "record debt" and we are in the midst of record debt. THE FACT IS the Federal Reserve Bank tells us that Household Debt is at its highest levels ever. So, if you wanna challenge my facts don't attempt to do it with something irrelevant.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
We've have 13 recessions since WW2 and we'll probably have 13 more over the next 80 years. Big deal.😴
Recessions can cause high unemployment, business failures, and bankruptcies as a result of diminished demand from consumers and businesses. Yes, bid deal, especially when record debt is brought into the equation. It will magnify the financial suffering.
Also, consider the amount of QE that will be required to bandage it.
Perhaps you would benefit from a study on unemployment and recessions.
In all but 2 recessions over the last 70 years unemployment peaked at less that 8%. That means 92% are still working. And since 5% of workers are marginal or undesirable or unreliable, etc, the number if real quality workers that lose their jobs is relatively small.
Today, we are way above peak employment and those marginal workers are pushing wages higher as businesses beg for help. A slowdown to weed them out, or for them to get religion and realize they need to be productive members of society would beneficial to all.
Yet the chart from your link confirms that the unemployment rate spikes at EVERY recession.
100's of thousands of business go bankrupt every year. That was suspended with #45's gross Govt bailout programs. Now without free handouts they will fail. Good. Let's get those more ambitious folk working for businesses that are better run and more stable. Efficiency and productivity will increase. Prices will fall.
This does not change the fact that recessions are a major cause of bankruptcies.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
@derryb said:
sovereign (national) debt is not the kind of debt that will make Americans suffer in a recession. It is the personal and corporate debt that will make a recession much more painful. It will exponentially magnify bankruptcies, loan defaults and business failures. The dominoes will fall a dozen at a time.
And this is why facts matter. Household debt servicing levels are near lowest in 40 years and way below 2008.
Yes, this is WHY FACTS MATTER. You choose to measure household debt by looking at it as a percentage of disposable income. I'm sure we could find something else to compare it to and make debt appear even smaller. I used the term "record debt" and we are in the midst of record debt. THE FACT IS the Federal Reserve Bank tells us that Household Debt is at its highest levels ever. So, if you wanna challenge my facts don't attempt to do it with something irrelevant.
The level of debt doesnt matter. It only matters if you can service it or not. You may not be able to handle $1 in debt, while another can handle $1 million. Fact is we, as a group, are more able to handle debt than at any time in the last 50 years.
The bank, and society, doesnt care how much debt you have, just that you have it collateralized or have sufficient free cash flow.
Oh, and BTW, every year we have been and will continue to be at record debt levels. Learn what's relevant and what isnt.
The level of debt doesnt matter. It only matters if you can service it or not.
Yes it does, especially when you find yourself in the middle of a recession with no job and higher prices. The more debt level the more defaults in hard times.
"So the Fed can destroy demand, but only at the cost of the economy. It’s one thing if the inflation is coming from the demand side, but it’s not. It’s coming from the supply side, and the Fed can’t do anything about that. They can destroy enough demand to maybe bring inflation down, but only by destroying the economy. And that’s the point. The idea that the Fed can squash inflation without squashing the economy is false."
And this is why we will see a "FED Pivot" by year's end. BTFD, PMs are on sale.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Just paid $6.50 for a bakers dozen +1 down at the local corn field. Guess they felt guilty for upping the price $2 over last year so they threw in an extra 2 ears. However when you can grill sweet corn and eat straight off the cob without any salt, butter, pepper etc and it's bomm diggity, yo! it's ABSOLUTELY worth every single over-inflated penny. One of these days I will devote an acre or two to growing me own. RGDS!
@ShadyDave said:
Markets have a long way to go before they bottom. Between stocks dropping, housing coming to a crashing halt (housing makes up 20% of the economy), gas/energy prices going doubling, continued interest rate hikes of 50-75bps in 2022, things are getting more expensive really fast. Layoffs are increasing and consumer spending will evaporate (per Barclays, its already started).
one caveat for today that didn't apply to past recessions is the availability of houses to the public (outside of Private Equity vultures)
before the slow down in home buying the prices were going up, not from a 2008 style buy every house frenzy, but from those coming into affordability with good pay fighting each other and PE to buy a house coupled with supply constraints.
I'll emphasize those last 2 words: supply constraints.
this is also impacting car prices to a ridiculous level.
the coming (already here) recession won't be from an over supply of available houses and cars which will lead to builder and factory layoffs right away. there literally is too much money chasing too few houses and cars. I don't think it will be a crashing halt. we may blow through equilibrium due to monetary policy, but there are still people who want houses and cars and ... houses and cars still sell at 6% interest rates. 6% is over 100 bps less than my first mtg.
I'll reinforce one thing - not a crashing halt, but a strong slow down over time. I'm not blind to the news of current buyers trying to pull out of house build deals. that's going to have an immediate impact, but how much. I don't see a crash right now.
Recessions can cause high unemployment, business failures, and bankruptcies as a result of diminished demand from consumers and businesses. Yes, bid deal, especially when record debt is brought into the equation. It will magnify the financial suffering.
before we get to layoffs, we need to get demand down... to a point less than the amount that's being held back from supply constraints. This recession will look a little different - at least going in - to the past recessions.
Current inflation is being caused by supply issues not demand issues. While FED can influence demand (with money) it cannot control supply. FED does not produce anything except money.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
The level of debt doesnt matter. It only matters if you can service it or not.
Yes it does, especially when you find yourself in the middle of a recession with no job and higher prices. The more debt level the more defaults in hard times.
One only defaults on debt if they cant service it. It makes no difference if the level is $1 or $1 trillion.
Today we have the ability to service record debt levels. Please understand the distinction. Pull up that chart of M2.
I see that net worth is at $150 billion and net cash is at $4.4 billion. Are these households and non-profits in a position to cover their debt. Unfortunately not. They owe $4,500 billion. Appears they have enough cash to cover a tenth of a penny on each dollar of their debt. LOL
If they liquidated all $150 billion in assets, they could cover another $.033 on each dollar of their debt. So, how they gonna cover the remaining 96 cents on the dollar of their debt? Wages? Interest on their savings? More government subsidies? LOL
As I have repeatedly stated on this forum over the years, debt is the problem, debt levels will destroy the economy. Now we can add supply induced price inflation and a recession to the formula.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
The level of debt doesnt matter. It only matters if you can service it or not.
Yes it does, especially when you find yourself in the middle of a recession with no job and higher prices. The more debt level the more defaults in hard times.
One only defaults on debt if they cant service it. It makes no difference if the level is $1 or $1 trillion.
Today we have the ability to service record debt levels. Please understand the distinction. Pull up that chart of M2.
The level of debt doesnt matter. It only matters if you can service it or not.
Yes it does, especially when you find yourself in the middle of a recession with no job and higher prices. The more debt level the more defaults in hard times.
One only defaults on debt if they cant service it. It makes no difference if the level is $1 or $1 trillion.
Today we have the ability to service record debt levels. Please understand the distinction. Pull up that chart of M2.
Recent trends seem to indicate otherwise:
Keeping up with the Jones's never ends good. My "usual expenses" are an afterthought and yours should be too. After all it's not rocket science. LiViN!
@derryb said:
I see that net worth is at $150 billion and net cash is at $4.4 billion. Are these households and non-profits in a position to cover their debt. Unfortunately not. They owe $4,500 billion. Appears they have enough cash to cover a tenth of a penny on each dollar of their debt. LOL
If they liquidated all $150 billion in assets, they could cover another $.033 on each dollar of their debt. So, how they gonna cover the remaining 96 cents on the dollar of their debt? Wages? Interest on their savings? More government subsidies? LOL
As I have repeatedly stated on this forum over the years, debt is the problem, debt levels will destroy the economy. Now we can add supply induced price inflation and a recession to the formula.
You may want to revise your post as you are clearly wrong unless 150,000 is less than 5000. We know numbers (charts and graphs) are not your thing, as we are continually correcting you. In the graphs we both provided, cash and liabilities are about the same number. And net worth is some 40x greater than liabilities, so all your calculations are null.
As I've repeatedly stated on this forum.....well, y'all can finish that sentence. 😘
Yes...debt can lead to financial ruin. It can also lead to great prosperity. Understand the differences. We ain't gonna fall into the depths of despair.
The level of debt doesnt matter. It only matters if you can service it or not.
Yes it does, especially when you find yourself in the middle of a recession with no job and higher prices. The more debt level the more defaults in hard times.
One only defaults on debt if they cant service it. It makes no difference if the level is $1 or $1 trillion.
Today we have the ability to service record debt levels. Please understand the distinction. Pull up that chart of M2.
Recent trends seem to indicate otherwise:
Keeping up with the Jones's never ends good. My "usual expenses" are an afterthought and yours should be too. After all it's not rocket science. LiViN!
The chart isn't about "keeping up with the Jones". It is "usual household expenses" (cost of living).
The level of debt doesnt matter. It only matters if you can service it or not.
Yes it does, especially when you find yourself in the middle of a recession with no job and higher prices. The more debt level the more defaults in hard times.
One only defaults on debt if they cant service it. It makes no difference if the level is $1 or $1 trillion.
Today we have the ability to service record debt levels. Please understand the distinction. Pull up that chart of M2.
Recent trends seem to indicate otherwise:
Keeping up with the Jones's never ends good. My "usual expenses" are an afterthought and yours should be too. After all it's not rocket science. LiViN!
The chart isn't about "keeping up with the Jones". It is "usual household expenses" (cost of living).
Live within your means brother, then charts like that are just mass panic sheeple headlines. Open your eyes and one day u may final remember what it was like to sleep like a baby. BST WSHS!
@derryb said:
I see that net worth is at $150 billion and net cash is at $4.4 billion. Are these households and non-profits in a position to cover their debt. Unfortunately not. They owe $4,500 billion. Appears they have enough cash to cover a tenth of a penny on each dollar of their debt. LOL
If they liquidated all $150 billion in assets, they could cover another $.033 on each dollar of their debt. So, how they gonna cover the remaining 96 cents on the dollar of their debt? Wages? Interest on their savings? More government subsidies? LOL
As I have repeatedly stated on this forum over the years, debt is the problem, debt levels will destroy the economy. Now we can add supply induced price inflation and a recession to the formula.
You may want to revise your post as you are clearly wrong unless 150,000 is less than 5000. We know numbers (charts and graphs) are not your thing, as we are continually correcting you. In the graphs we both provided, cash and liabilities are about the same number. And net worth is some 40x greater than liabilities, so all your calculations are null.
As I've repeatedly stated on this forum.....well, y'all can finish that sentence. 😘
Yes...debt can lead to financial ruin. It can also lead to great prosperity. Understand the differences. We ain't gonna fall into the depths of despair.
Debt only leads to "great prosperity" for a few, at the expense of many.
Remember this from late 2006 ? You remind me of the guy (Mike Norman) laughing at Peter Schiff.
@derryb said:
I see that net worth is at $150 billion and net cash is at $4.4 billion. Are these households and non-profits in a position to cover their debt. Unfortunately not. They owe $4,500 billion. Appears they have enough cash to cover a tenth of a penny on each dollar of their debt. LOL
If they liquidated all $150 billion in assets, they could cover another $.033 on each dollar of their debt. So, how they gonna cover the remaining 96 cents on the dollar of their debt? Wages? Interest on their savings? More government subsidies? LOL
As I have repeatedly stated on this forum over the years, debt is the problem, debt levels will destroy the economy. Now we can add supply induced price inflation and a recession to the formula.
You may want to revise your post as you are clearly wrong unless 150,000 is less than 5000. We know numbers (charts and graphs) are not your thing, as we are continually correcting you. In the graphs we both provided, cash and liabilities are about the same number. And net worth is some 40x greater than liabilities, so all your calculations are null.
As I've repeatedly stated on this forum.....well, y'all can finish that sentence. 😘
Yes...debt can lead to financial ruin. It can also lead to great prosperity. Understand the differences. We ain't gonna fall into the depths of despair.
Debt only leads to "great prosperity" for the few, at the expense of the many.
Remember this from late 2006 ? You remind me of the guy (Mike Norman) laughing at Peter Schiff.
Circa 2006 well at least they were somewhat "fair and balanced" back then. LOL!!!! Sad, life's short better hurry up and figure out how to enjoy it.
The level of debt doesnt matter. It only matters if you can service it or not.
Yes it does, especially when you find yourself in the middle of a recession with no job and higher prices. The more debt level the more defaults in hard times.
One only defaults on debt if they cant service it. It makes no difference if the level is $1 or $1 trillion.
Today we have the ability to service record debt levels. Please understand the distinction. Pull up that chart of M2.
Recent trends seem to indicate otherwise:
Keeping up with the Jones's never ends good. My "usual expenses" are an afterthought and yours should be too. After all it's not rocket science. LiViN!
The chart isn't about "keeping up with the Jones". It is "usual household expenses" (cost of living).
Live within your means brother, then charts like that are just mass panic sheeple headlines. Open your eyes and one day u may final remember what it was like to sleep like a baby. BST WSHS!
Did you note the source of the chart ?
The Census Bureau.
They report the facts as they collect them. They are not "mass panic sheeple headlines".
The chart is an indication that more households are having trouble paying for basic necessities.
If housing prices fall, or even just stagnate (which is likely to happen due to rising mortgage rates), then many households will be tapped out with no more home equity to draw upon.
The level of debt doesnt matter. It only matters if you can service it or not.
Yes it does, especially when you find yourself in the middle of a recession with no job and higher prices. The more debt level the more defaults in hard times.
One only defaults on debt if they cant service it. It makes no difference if the level is $1 or $1 trillion.
Today we have the ability to service record debt levels. Please understand the distinction. Pull up that chart of M2.
Recent trends seem to indicate otherwise:
Keeping up with the Jones's never ends good. My "usual expenses" are an afterthought and yours should be too. After all it's not rocket science. LiViN!
The chart isn't about "keeping up with the Jones". It is "usual household expenses" (cost of living).
Live within your means brother, then charts like that are just mass panic sheeple headlines. Open your eyes and one day u may final remember what it was like to sleep like a baby. BST WSHS!
Did you note the source of the chart ?
The Census Bureau.
They report the facts as they collect them. They are not "mass panic sheeple headlines".
The chart is an indication that more households are having trouble paying for basic necessities.
If housing prices fall, or even just stagnate (which is likely to happen due to rising mortgage rates), then many households will be tapped out with no more home equity to draw upon.
Maybe iphone, big mac, marboro and jack daniels prices are all that need to fall??? You know what they say: "Ain't cheep livin in 'merica!"
Comments
Cash savers are happy to see higher rates. Collecting interest is so much better than paying interest.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I think the Fed has missed the curve and will chase it for a couple years.... those 2 years will deplete all the excesses methodically leg by leg.... I wouldn't want to be Michael Saylor of Microstrategy or anything... b/c cash is king and leverage is BIG TROUBLE.... Margin calls coming Michael.
If I were to compare it ( this economy) to the past 60 yrs, I'd liken this economy to the 70's. Only we rationed gas back then. And muscle cars were the norm. And fuel consumption was sky high. And people actually waited in long lines to fill up. We survived because we were resilient. Racism, sexism and every other "ism" was just as alive then, as now. However, now ; more people believe propaganda than truth, because it is the news.
If only savings rates could keep up with inflation. Currently dollars continue to lose purchasing power. Maybe we'll get to 20% rates. LOL
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
My saved dollars are able to purchase 20% more equities, 20% more silver, 20% more bonds, and 70% more crypto (blech).
If one thinks theyve lost purchasing power due to inflation then theyve also increased purchasing power due to deflation.
So, yeah, I've gotten my 20% rates.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
How's the price of necessities working out for ya? Getting more bang for your buck? LOL
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Martin Armstrong: 2023 Will Be Year from Hell
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Maybe. However, I do not listen to nor do I read the b.s. that's coming from an American self-taught economic forecaster and convicted felon who spent 11 years in jail for cheating investors out of $700 million.
His time in jail was for several contempt of court charges for refusing to turn over assets to the court that he argued were rightfully his. As for his predictions, his computer program "Socrates" is recognized world-wide for its accuracy. So yea, don't listen to him. LOL
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Unfortunately I'm holding onto dollars as the best of a bunch of bad options.
Is he saying Europe is "pushing for war"?
Click on this link to see my ebay listings.
His model may be recognized by you and his followers, but most definitely is not world wide recognized for its so called "accuracy" Is his bs the reason for you being so inaccurate over the last 10+ years in your predictions?
[his computer program Socrates is recognized world-wide for its accuracy. So yea, don't listen to him. LOL
Yup...one guy in China, one in Russia, 2 in Bulgaria, one in Iran, one in Venzuela, and another in Jacksonville....all around the world.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Not all of his time in jail was for contempt. And you could argue none of it was. He just got credit for time served.
My favorite part of the article were all the times he decouples himself from his computer.
You mean like when I was being laughed at for warning about how all the money printing and debt would lead to inflation? Or that buying silver eagles (while premiums were low) should be one's silver preference? LOL
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Anyone with a bid of common sense would have come to the same conclusion regarding the debt. Inflation is part of economic cycles. True, the premiums were lower on ASE's. when the price of silver was $30+ per oz. Not much of a win so far.
so in 2025 are you gonna say "anyone with a bit of common sense" could have come to the same conclusion that Armstrong did about 2023? LOL
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
What a nightmarish thought. Never gonna happen though.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
.
We've have 13 recessions since WW2 and we'll probably have 13 more over the next 80 years. Big deal.😴😴😴
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
THIS....
Recessions can cause high unemployment, business failures, and bankruptcies as a result of diminished demand from consumers and businesses. Yes, bid deal, especially when record debt is brought into the equation. It will magnify the financial suffering.
Also, consider the amount of QE that will be required to bandage it.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
These days debt doesn't really mean anything. Just a few digits on some computer screen. Enjoy life brother, it's short and precious.
RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
sovereign (national) debt is not the kind of debt that will make Americans suffer in a recession. It is the personal and corporate debt that will make a recession much more painful. It will exponentially magnify bankruptcies, loan defaults and business failures. The dominoes will fall a dozen at a time.
PS: i notice you believe the FED has solved all the problems. Have you considered that maybe they are responsible for most all the economic problems?
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
And this is why facts matter. Household debt servicing levels are near lowest in 40 years and way below 2008.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Perhaps you would benefit from a study on unemployment and recessions.
https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-commentary/2021-economic-commentaries/ec-202101-recessions-and-the-trend-in-the-us-unemployment-rate.aspx
In all but 2 recessions over the last 70 years unemployment peaked at less that 8%. That means 92% are still working. And since 5% of workers are marginal or undesirable or unreliable, etc, the number if real quality workers that lose their jobs is relatively small.
Today, we are way above peak employment and those marginal workers are pushing wages higher as businesses beg for help. A slowdown to weed them out, or for them to get religion and realize they need to be productive members of society would beneficial to all.
100's of thousands of business go bankrupt every year. That was suspended with #45's gross Govt bailout programs. Now without free handouts they will fail. Good. Let's get those more ambitious folk working for businesses that are better run and more stable. Efficiency and productivity will increase. Prices will fall.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yes, this is WHY FACTS MATTER. You choose to measure household debt by looking at it as a percentage of disposable income. I'm sure we could find something else to compare it to and make debt appear even smaller. I used the term "record debt" and we are in the midst of record debt. THE FACT IS the Federal Reserve Bank tells us that Household Debt is at its highest levels ever. So, if you wanna challenge my facts don't attempt to do it with something irrelevant.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Yet the chart from your link confirms that the unemployment rate spikes at EVERY recession.
This does not change the fact that recessions are a major cause of bankruptcies.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
The level of debt doesnt matter. It only matters if you can service it or not. You may not be able to handle $1 in debt, while another can handle $1 million. Fact is we, as a group, are more able to handle debt than at any time in the last 50 years.
The bank, and society, doesnt care how much debt you have, just that you have it collateralized or have sufficient free cash flow.
Oh, and BTW, every year we have been and will continue to be at record debt levels. Learn what's relevant and what isnt.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yes it does, especially when you find yourself in the middle of a recession with no job and higher prices. The more debt level the more defaults in hard times.
What caused the 2007 mortgage crisis?
"The subprime mortgage crisis was a result of too much borrowing."
Easy money. But it's different this time. LOL
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
The Fed vs. the Economy
"So the Fed can destroy demand, but only at the cost of the economy. It’s one thing if the inflation is coming from the demand side, but it’s not. It’s coming from the supply side, and the Fed can’t do anything about that. They can destroy enough demand to maybe bring inflation down, but only by destroying the economy. And that’s the point. The idea that the Fed can squash inflation without squashing the economy is false."
And this is why we will see a "FED Pivot" by year's end. BTFD, PMs are on sale.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I'm thinking corn is going to turn around.
Just paid $6.50 for a bakers dozen +1 down at the local corn field. Guess they felt guilty for upping the price $2 over last year so they threw in an extra 2 ears. However when you can grill sweet corn and eat straight off the cob without any salt, butter, pepper etc and it's bomm diggity, yo! it's ABSOLUTELY worth every single over-inflated penny. One of these days I will devote an acre or two to growing me own. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
one caveat for today that didn't apply to past recessions is the availability of houses to the public (outside of Private Equity vultures)
before the slow down in home buying the prices were going up, not from a 2008 style buy every house frenzy, but from those coming into affordability with good pay fighting each other and PE to buy a house coupled with supply constraints.
I'll emphasize those last 2 words: supply constraints.
this is also impacting car prices to a ridiculous level.
the coming (already here) recession won't be from an over supply of available houses and cars which will lead to builder and factory layoffs right away. there literally is too much money chasing too few houses and cars. I don't think it will be a crashing halt. we may blow through equilibrium due to monetary policy, but there are still people who want houses and cars and ... houses and cars still sell at 6% interest rates. 6% is over 100 bps less than my first mtg.
I'll reinforce one thing - not a crashing halt, but a strong slow down over time. I'm not blind to the news of current buyers trying to pull out of house build deals. that's going to have an immediate impact, but how much. I don't see a crash right now.
before we get to layoffs, we need to get demand down... to a point less than the amount that's being held back from supply constraints. This recession will look a little different - at least going in - to the past recessions.
Current inflation is being caused by supply issues not demand issues. While FED can influence demand (with money) it cannot control supply. FED does not produce anything except money.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
One only defaults on debt if they cant service it. It makes no difference if the level is $1 or $1 trillion.
Today we have the ability to service record debt levels. Please understand the distinction. Pull up that chart of M2.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
and the greater the debt the more likely a default, especially in the face of threats to employment and prices. Size matters.
A Flood of Repossessed Cars Poised to Hit the Used Car Market
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
This is another of your incorrect assumption (you like those).
And now...the rest of the story. Facts matter.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I see that net worth is at $150 billion and net cash is at $4.4 billion. Are these households and non-profits in a position to cover their debt. Unfortunately not. They owe $4,500 billion. Appears they have enough cash to cover a tenth of a penny on each dollar of their debt. LOL
If they liquidated all $150 billion in assets, they could cover another $.033 on each dollar of their debt. So, how they gonna cover the remaining 96 cents on the dollar of their debt? Wages? Interest on their savings? More government subsidies? LOL
As I have repeatedly stated on this forum over the years, debt is the problem, debt levels will destroy the economy. Now we can add supply induced price inflation and a recession to the formula.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Recent trends seem to indicate otherwise:
Keeping up with the Jones's never ends good. My "usual expenses" are an afterthought and yours should be too. After all it's not rocket science. LiViN!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
You may want to revise your post as you are clearly wrong unless 150,000 is less than 5000. We know numbers (charts and graphs) are not your thing, as we are continually correcting you. In the graphs we both provided, cash and liabilities are about the same number. And net worth is some 40x greater than liabilities, so all your calculations are null.
As I've repeatedly stated on this forum.....well, y'all can finish that sentence. 😘
Yes...debt can lead to financial ruin. It can also lead to great prosperity. Understand the differences. We ain't gonna fall into the depths of despair.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Where do you rate current US economic conditions?
Most often from an armchair, but sometimes in a chaise lounge or on a beach towel.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The chart isn't about "keeping up with the Jones". It is "usual household expenses" (cost of living).
Live within your means brother, then charts like that are just mass panic sheeple headlines. Open your eyes and one day u may final remember what it was like to sleep like a baby. BST WSHS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Debt only leads to "great prosperity" for a few, at the expense of many.
Remember this from late 2006 ? You remind me of the guy (Mike Norman) laughing at Peter Schiff.
Circa 2006 well at least they were somewhat "fair and balanced" back then. LOL!!!! Sad, life's short better hurry up and figure out how to enjoy it.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Did you note the source of the chart ?
The Census Bureau.
They report the facts as they collect them. They are not "mass panic sheeple headlines".
The chart is an indication that more households are having trouble paying for basic necessities.
If housing prices fall, or even just stagnate (which is likely to happen due to rising mortgage rates), then many households will be tapped out with no more home equity to draw upon.
Maybe iphone, big mac, marboro and jack daniels prices are all that need to fall??? You know what they say: "Ain't cheep livin in 'merica!"
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.