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Where do you rate current US economic conditions?

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  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,869 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    Taking on debt might be fine as a speculation on an income property when the economy can support actual wage earners who can pay their bills. Other than that, debt is just a banker's trap for the unsophisticated.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @jmski52 said:
    Taking on debt might be fine as a speculation on an income property when the economy can support actual wage earners who can pay their bills. Other than that, debt is just a banker's trap for the unsophisticated.

    Lending is the SOURCE OF INCOME for banks. Economists and financial news are crying over the fact that bank earnings are now in the tank. Bad bank earnings (reduced lending) is a good thing for tomorrow's economy.

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    If housing prices fall, or even just stagnate (which is likely to happen due to rising mortgage rates), then many households will be tapped out with no more home equity to draw upon.

    I would bet that very few of those surveyed actually own a home and is why they answer as they do.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Taking on debt might be fine as a speculation on an income property when the economy can support actual wage earners who can pay their bills. Other than that, debt is just a banker's trap for the unsophisticated.

    You ever buy a house with a mortgage? Was that speculation?

    But your point is accurate. Use debt to buy productive assets, not to buy TV programs and chrome wheels. If folk want to be dumb, then let them be dumb, just stop bailing them out. Then when they are in desperation mode...well...at least you're prepared.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,485 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @dcarr said:

    If housing prices fall, or even just stagnate (which is likely to happen due to rising mortgage rates), then many households will be tapped out with no more home equity to draw upon.

    I would bet that very few of those surveyed actually own a home and is why they answer as they do.

    I wasn't writing about those in the survey. I am pointing out that if house values fall by a meaningful amount, many people who are currently able to service their debt will no longer be able to do so.

  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Unemployment only measures those that WANT to work.

    Labor participation rate is 62.2%.
    Employment population ratio is 59.9%.

    Both of these are very low and take into consideration a bigger picture of the economy. You can speculate why these numbers are so low. These numbers are rarely considered when 'unemployment' numbers are tossed about.
    'The unemployment number is...bla bla bla'. Basically irrelevant if you ignore the two percentages above

    Have a nice day
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    @cohodk said:

    @dcarr said:

    If housing prices fall, or even just stagnate (which is likely to happen due to rising mortgage rates), then many households will be tapped out with no more home equity to draw upon.

    I would bet that very few of those surveyed actually own a home and is why they answer as they do.

    I wasn't writing about those in the survey. I am pointing out that if house values fall by a meaningful amount, many people who are currently able to service their debt will no longer be able to do so.

    So you think most people are tapping home equity to service debt? Ie, taking a HELPC to pay credit cards?

    What if home prices dont fall?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 28, 2022 9:25AM

    @streeter said:
    Unemployment only measures those that WANT to work.

    Labor participation rate is 62.2%.
    Employment population ratio is 59.9%.

    Both of these are very low and take into consideration a bigger picture of the economy. You can speculate why these numbers are so low. These numbers are rarely considered when 'unemployment' numbers are tossed about.

    >

    "Very low"????

    Looks to be about the average level over the last 70 years and higher than the "good old days of Mayberry".

    Any coincidence that the rate peaked when the first baby boomers turned 55 and were eligible for retirement?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @cohodk said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Taking on debt might be fine as a speculation on an income property when the economy can support actual wage earners who can pay their bills. Other than that, debt is just a banker's trap for the unsophisticated.

    You ever buy a house with a mortgage? Was that speculation?

    not if it was a personal residence. He was simply trading his future labor for a basic necessity.

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 28, 2022 8:58PM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    It's not technically a recession. LOL

    Time to redefine the Misery Index?

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Taking on debt might be fine as a speculation on an income property when the economy can support actual wage earners who can pay their bills. Other than that, debt is just a banker's trap for the unsophisticated.

    You ever buy a house with a mortgage? Was that speculation?

    not if it was a personal residence. He was simply trading his future labor for a basic necessity.

    You know....wisdom has been running after you for decades, but you're too darn fast.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Taking on debt might be fine as a speculation on an income property when the economy can support actual wage earners who can pay their bills. Other than that, debt is just a banker's trap for the unsophisticated.

    You ever buy a house with a mortgage? Was that speculation?

    not if it was a personal residence. He was simply trading his future labor for a basic necessity.

    You know....wisdom has been running after you for decades, but you're too darn fast.

    I guess you believe buying new underwear is also speculation. LOL

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Taking on debt might be fine as a speculation on an income property when the economy can support actual wage earners who can pay their bills. Other than that, debt is just a banker's trap for the unsophisticated.

    You ever buy a house with a mortgage? Was that speculation?

    not if it was a personal residence. He was simply trading his future labor for a basic necessity.

    You know....wisdom has been running after you for decades, but you're too darn fast.

    I guess you believe buying new underwear is also speculation. LOL

    Only if I've had your wife's cooking. Haha

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 30, 2022 1:18PM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    tool shed getting smaller?

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • KeevanKeevan Posts: 148 ✭✭✭

    https://brookings.edu/research/is-long-covid-worsening-the-labor-shortage/

    In other words, under reasonable assumptions given the data available, long Covid could account for 15% of the nation’s 10.6 million unfilled jobs.

    https://npr.org/2022/07/31/1114375163/long-covid-longhaulers-disability-labor-ada

    Now, millions of people may be sidelined from their jobs due to long COVID. Katie Bach, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution, drew on survey data from the Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and the Lancet to come up with what she says is a conservative estimate: 4 million full-time equivalent workers out of work because of long COVID. "That is just a shocking number," says Bach. "That's 2.4% of the U.S. working population."

    Successful BST transactions (as a buyer) with @ArchStanton, @JGnumismatics, @r00kies101, @derryb, @76collector, @Pachucko, @brendanlam, @Coll3ctor. I am looking for fractional gold Krugerrands, by year: 0.5oz: 2014, 2020, 2023 | 0.25oz: 1992, 1994, 2002, 2020, 2023 | 0.10oz: 1990, 1992, 1994, 2010, 2020-2021

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    JOLT report shows 10.7 million job openings.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @cohodk said:
    JOLT report shows 10.7 million job openings.

    that's a lot of burger joints.

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,912 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    JOLT report shows 10.7 million job openings.

    that's a lot of burger joints.

    I work in healthcare, our hospital is less than half its normal operating capacity. Not because there aren't enough patients, we just can't hire and maintain the staff. They have been offering nurses $30K sign on bonuses and $80+ an hour and still can't fill the openings. Last I checked our health system alone has over 8,000 open positions. Those aren't burger flipping jobs.

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • taxmadtaxmad Posts: 980 ✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @blitzdude said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    JOLT report shows 10.7 million job openings.

    that's a lot of burger joints.

    I work in healthcare, our hospital is less than half its normal operating capacity. Not because there aren't enough patients, we just can't hire and maintain the staff. They have been offering nurses $30K sign on bonuses and $80+ an hour and still can't fill the openings. Last I checked our health system alone has over 8,000 open positions. Those aren't burger flipping jobs.

    You work in one of the joints that won't hire the unvaxxed but will allow the Covid positive to work a shift?

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,912 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    @taxmad said:

    @blitzdude said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    JOLT report shows 10.7 million job openings.

    that's a lot of burger joints.

    I work in healthcare, our hospital is less than half its normal operating capacity. Not because there aren't enough patients, we just can't hire and maintain the staff. They have been offering nurses $30K sign on bonuses and $80+ an hour and still can't fill the openings. Last I checked our health system alone has over 8,000 open positions. Those aren't burger flipping jobs.

    You work in one of the joints that won't hire the unvaxxed but will allow the Covid positive to work a shift?

    Most of the country is vaccinated and especially those who work in healthcare. Vaccines have nothing to do with the staffing issues.

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    JOLT report shows 10.7 million job openings.

    that's a lot of burger joints.

    In an attempt to lower your level of ignorance, here are the stats.

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.t01.htm

    About 1.3 million are in food and accommodation or about 1 in 7 job openings. The other 85% are hardly "burger flippers".

    2 million in healthcare.
    2 million in professional/business.
    2.1 million in transportation/retail.
    900k in state/local govt.
    800k in manufacturing.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,396 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 5, 2022 8:17PM

    @blitzdude said:

    @taxmad said:

    @blitzdude said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    JOLT report shows 10.7 million job openings.

    that's a lot of burger joints.

    I work in healthcare, our hospital is less than half its normal operating capacity. Not because there aren't enough patients, we just can't hire and maintain the staff. They have been offering nurses $30K sign on bonuses and $80+ an hour and still can't fill the openings. Last I checked our health system alone has over 8,000 open positions. Those aren't burger flipping jobs.

    You work in one of the joints that won't hire the unvaxxed but will allow the Covid positive to work a shift?

    Most of the country is vaccinated and especially those who work in healthcare. Vaccines have nothing to do with the staffing issues.

    Friend of mine is a recruiter for nursing, they can't throw enough perks around to get enough staff.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    Maybe wages should reflect inflation.

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 3, 2022 7:10AM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    4.2 million quit jobs in June despite recession concerns.

    Massive churn and job hopping.

    Lotta job openings:

    The reason for up to one third of them:

    Note the similarity in numbers movement.

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    So you're saying people quit their jobs and never return? That's called retirement.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @cohodk said:
    So you're saying people quit their jobs and never return? That's called retirement.

    I'm sayin (as are the two above charts) that one third of the job openings were created by those that quit their jobs. As usual you attempt to put words in the mouth of the charts. LOL

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 4, 2022 4:01AM

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    So you're saying people quit their jobs and never return? That's called retirement.

    I'm sayin (as are the two above charts) that one third of the job openings were created by those that quit their jobs. As usual you attempt to put words in the mouth of the charts. LOL

    Your interpretation would be correct if those that quit never returned to the workforce, which would be called retirement.

    If someone quits a job (and doesnt retire) then they go to another job and fill a vacancy. The number of net job openings would remain the same.

    But you are putting some other words into the mouths of charts that dont make sense, per usual.

    Do you believe voluntary leave of a job is a sign or good or bad economy?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    US Job Growth Surges, Tempering Recession Fears and Pressing Fed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-05/us-job-growth-tops-forecast-unemployment-falls-to-3-5

    Recession?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    We are in a recession. Unless of course you're with the "let's change the definition" crowd. LOL

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @cohodk said:
    US Job Growth Surges, Tempering Recession Fears and Pressing Fed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-05/us-job-growth-tops-forecast-unemployment-falls-to-3-5

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 6, 2022 6:31AM

    @derryb said:

    Fed Funds is at 2019 levels near 2.5%. Yawn.
    Margins ebb and flow for myriad reasons. Yawn.
    Which major companies? Crickets.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 6, 2022 6:33AM

    @derryb said:
    We are in a recession. Unless of course you're with the "let's change the definition" crowd. LOL

    Can you define a recession?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    We are in a recession. Unless of course you're with the "let's change the definition" crowd. LOL

    Can you define a recession?

    Yes, the question is "why can't you?"

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    Which major companies? Crickets.

    Twitter 30%
    Ford 8,000
    Tesla 10%
    Carvana 2,500

    Uber hiring freeze
    Meta hiring freeze

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,869 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    Can you define a recession?

    Whenever they start cutting bonuses at JPMorgan?

    Whenever Janet Yellen says so?

    Just after the midterm elections are over?

    Whenever GDP declines for 2 successive quarters?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 6, 2022 4:33PM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @cohodk said:
    So you're saying people quit their jobs and never return? That's called retirement.

    Oh, they return, just not in time for the current jobs report. They may be included in the next one or the one after that or. . .

    And by the way, that current great jobs reports is counting 384,000 part time jobs as "new" jobs. LOL

    Figures will continue to lie as long as taxpayers pay liars to figure.

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    Which major companies? Crickets.

    Twitter 30%
    Ford 8,000
    Tesla 10%
    Carvana 2,500

    Uber hiring freeze
    Meta hiring freeze

    It's Happening!

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    JOLT report shows 10.7 million job openings.

    that's a lot of burger joints.

    In an attempt to lower your level of ignorance, here are the stats.

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.t01.htm

    About 1.3 million are in food and accommodation or about 1 in 7 job openings. The other 85% are hardly "burger flippers".

    2 million in healthcare.
    2 million in professional/business.
    2.1 million in transportation/retail.
    900k in state/local govt.
    800k in manufacturing.

    >
    >
    >

    Which category includes the burger joints?

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    US Job Growth Surges, Tempering Recession Fears and Pressing Fed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-05/us-job-growth-tops-forecast-unemployment-falls-to-3-5

    ![](https://us.v-cdn.net/6027503/uploads/editor/ts/fwartkagv

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    We are in a recession. Unless of course you're with the "let's change the definition" crowd. LOL

    Can you define a recession?

    Yes, the question is "why can't you?"

    You didnt ask me, but I could certainly define one, and it would not be as simplistic as the one used for the masses.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 7, 2022 7:37AM

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    Which major companies? Crickets.

    Twitter 30%
    Ford 8,000
    Tesla 10%
    Carvana 2,500

    Uber hiring freeze
    Meta hiring freeze

    Lol....Twitter, Carvana. Haha
    Regardless, that's what, 15000 people?

    Let's put that in perspective...2.5 million folk of working age are lost every year due to death. That's nearly 7000 per day.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 7, 2022 7:01AM

    derryb

    Which category includes the burger joints?

    Thanks for proving lots of jobs have been created.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    this should solve all financial problems:

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 7, 2022 8:27AM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @cohodk said:

    derryb

    Which category includes the burger joints?

    Thanks for proving lots of jobs have been created.

    Sure, don't forget that 384,000 of them are temporary jobs.

    And how many of those jobs are second jobs for those trying to keep up with inflation? LOL

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    Food for thought:

    What if our BLS jobless claims are as fabricated as our CPI inflation numbers?

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    derryb

    Which category includes the burger joints?

    Thanks for proving lots of jobs have been created.

    Sure, don't forget that 384,000 of them are temporary jobs.

    And how many of those jobs are second jobs for those trying to keep up with inflation? LOL

    Your assertions are grossly incorrect, but let's play.

    Even if the jobs are temporary that shows there is demand for worker. That ain't a sign of a bad economy.

    The fact that there are excess jobs available for folk to work a 2nd job also is not a sign of a bad economy.

    Worry when there are no temporary jobs, or excess job openings for folk to earn extra money. And dont confuse your narratives.;)

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Food for thought:

    What if our BLS jobless claims are as fabricated as our CPI inflation numbers?

    Ignorance is a breeding ground for conspiracy theory.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,869 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    The CPI inflation numbers put out by the BLS are well documented to be completely bogus.

    They attempted to change the long-standing classic definition of a recession to suit their storybook.

    Who's credible here? Talking about ignorance and conspiracy theories - don't make me laugh.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    No one has changed the DEFINITION of a recession. Is that another conspiracy theory?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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