Nuclear Bids
FranklinHalfAddict
Posts: 682 ✭✭✭✭✭
I’ve been outbid several times in the last year or so on several coins at various auction houses and recently I thought about putting in a nuclear bid on a certain coin I’m eyeing. I’m talking 3000% of market value. I didnt do it but it crossed my mind.
What’s the most outrageous bid you’ve put on a coin.
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Exactly what the coin was worth to me. Why would I ever bid more than that?
Smitten with DBLCs.
What happens when somebody else has the same idea and bids 2500% of market value? Just wondering...
I am always concerned about the integrity of the auction house... if I put in a nuclear bid will the auction house push it up...
I set a budget and then I decide do I want to break the budget...
The other thing I ask... do I want to set the market...
Then I bid
You have to be careful with this, some online auctions sites allow the auctioneer to see the pre-bids and they will open the lot at your pre-bid so you may be buying the coin at 3000% of market value.
Why would you ever bid even one cent if you question the integrity of the auction house?
I do not use that strategy for auction bidding, I guess that means I am sure to miss some lots. But there will always be another coin in the kiddie part of the pool that I play in.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
I don't know of any auction house that does that. What is this based upon?
Most all of them that are on the iCollector site, I have watched the auctions live and seen them start at my max pre-bid rather than the current bid on the item. I don't really care I wouldn't have bid if I didn't want the item at that price.
Then you pony up and pay I guess.
Auctions take on t a life of their own sometimes.
I have put in a proxy bid that I thought was very generous to market levels only to watch the prices zoom by during the live bidding. Keep in mind that the auction sell price is only one bid higher than what others wanted it for or believing that price was worth.. I have pick up a couple of these pieces a few years later at a discount when they popped back up on the market. Gee ... I see 2 pieces now on Great collections that I had bid live on a couple of years ago and lost to the winning bidder by a cut bid increment ( I had already bid one increment higher than planned so I was not bidding any higher) ... these pieces have been listed for several months (maybe a 3 rd or 4th round of an auction cycles at GG) and the starting bid is set at the winning price from the the original auction - no takers yet. Most likely winning bidder and I were the only bidders interested in these pieces at that level - I am now out of the market now as I picked up similar pieces since that time (and at a nicer price level).
Think about the current housing market that we see in much of the country now ... offers at 5 - 15% higher than asking (list) prices on day 1 of listing. - Is it worth it?. Maybe or maybe not - time will tell to those buyers.
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I don't trust going nuclear. All it takes is one other collector doing the same, and you're in serious trouble. That said, I will come in very hard, right at the end. Sometimes 3x Greysheet, if it's a difficult date I need for a series that I'm working on, and it's an outstanding piece.
Dave
I let other people do that. When they are buried in the coin, that's their problem, not mine.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I usually bid $100,000 at the last second. I only had to pay $99,999 a couple times so far.
3000% of Market Value = Buried, generally speaking.
Last year Great Collections was auctioning off a coin that I simply, had to own. Book was roughly $750. I was the high bidder at $1500 near closing but put a bid near the end for $10,000. It hammered at $2,600.
I wouldn't hesitate to do it again for the right coin.
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If you bid “3000% of market value” and one or more other bidders bid anywhere close to that, “market value” is probably considerably more than you thought it was. In other words, you didn’t actually bid 3000% of “market value”.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Sounds like a recipe for disaster (bidding any multiple of a coin's value).
If you think your nuclear bid will never be reached, you are wrong.
Jim
When a man who is honestly mistaken hears the truth, he will either quit being mistaken or cease to be honest....Abraham Lincoln
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.....Mark Twain
Reading the threads here for even a short period of time will show one that lots of people who think they know what "market value" is really don't.
Never heard of this Nuclear Option. Sounds scary, really scary. Don't think my SSA check would cover it. Good luck with the bidding.
USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
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It's a good day when you go nuclear and the second highest bidder brings a slingshot
Just make sure you have your permit before launching any nuclear bids in South Carolina:
SECTION 23-33-20. Permit required for firing missile. Before any person shall fire or attempt to fire or discharge any missile within the borders of this State, he shall first procure a written permit from the Aeronautics Division of the Department of Commerce on such form as it may prescribe.
In all seriousness, I think that the 3000% values quoted here were price guides, and let's all be real for a second, the price guides never anticipated the auction results of late. It's the new reality of coin auctions.
Coin Photographer.
I've been dealing with post auction pain after being shut out at SB, so the only cure I see is going nuclear in the upcoming HA Central States Signature Auction. I'm sure it will be a financial loser, but the joy of my new acquisition will comfort me.
Coins are a hobby. Buy the things you like. Pay what it takes to get them and don’t worry about what other people say about it. Many of the nicest coins that sell now may never again come to market in your lifetime.
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$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
why would you ever put in a bid more than you are willing to pay?
I gave up at 10,000%
I believe the item was won by a forum member.
Agree, as long as it is within your means.
3000 % Not on my budget. Just gotta remember price guide is a guide only. Recently paid almost double guide price for the last item needed to complete a set in a certain grade. This for a coin Pop 9/2 that hadn't come up for sale in the grade needed since 2018. Getting close to retirement I'm certainly not going to be able to afford it soon. Nuclear bid ? Nope, not for me. I'd have a meltdown.
But it would also show you that people think "nuclear bids" are a thing. So, 2 nuclear bids don't establish true market value either.
I also think that the “3000% of market value” was probably a reference to a price guide value.
Regardless, I wish people wouldn’t use price guide values and “market value” interchangeably, as the two can be very different.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Because you are a clever auction bidder...
These are the some of the same people that don't bid early because someone will run them up. However, they think a last second nuclear bid is a good strategy.
At GC I was bidding the Silver Eagle below for my type set and I was trying to bid $183.00 and typed in $1830.00 at the last second. I ended up wining the coin for about $200.
Price guides are never supposed to "anticipate" the market. They are to reflect the market. They will always lag a rising or falling market.
No, they don't. All they do is establish a value between two people who don't have a good enough sense of market value to bid what they think a coin is worth.
edited to add... What the nuclear bidder is depending on (at worst) is an underbidder who understands and makes his bid based on the current market value. The nuclear bidder is hoping to win the auction by one more bid increment.
I'm not sure I would characterize it as ignorance of market value. It's really just a flawed strategy.
True, poor word choice and that wasn’t the spirit of my post. I was hinting to the fact that oftentimes price guides are poor representations of the market because they require constant updating and they are rarely maintained as such.
The best way to tell how what the market price of a coin is is to use the sold items feature of CoinFacts IMO. There’s often three or four recent auctions for a lot of grades and these rarely coincide with the price guide.
Coin Photographer.
Edited the post you replied to. FWIW...
If the strategy is "Win at all costs", is it really flawed?
I nuke bid and won a few coins, but only ones of extreme rarity or unquestioned top pop status (usually both). Such a bid I was entirely willing to pay and the fact is that such coins then have a floor price established by the winner and underbidder. You can get burned in a subsequent sale, but not so often. Exceptions I suspect, but have not bothered to research, are the more common issues in the Eliasberg sale. Not everything was a major rarity but everything I followed hammered higher than the market. It was the one place where I should have gone nuclear on select lots on my faxed bid sheet.
Considering some auction houses bid and buy their own lots…..no names…..putting nuclear bids is risky. Just watch when auction houses put lots that “sold” in their inventory a week later. Be cautious….
Yes, there are usually a bunch of denials but anecdotal evidence is there. Got to be careful about what you say hereabouts.
Well, just Love coins, period.
So I'm tracking 3 coins in the upcoming HA auction. The one I'm most interested in already hit PCGS price guide, and we are only 3 days into pre auction bidding, LOL. So before all the pundits lecture me on the fact that the guide is not necessarily market, I get it! All i know is the the good stuff will be going for crazy high bids...just saying!
Seems like the right time to be thinning the herd.
I used the nuclear bid on ebay auctions years ago when sniping.... Placed in the last 4 or 5 seconds... always successful, and never exorbitant final price... usually just two or three increments. Not sure if that can still be done.... do not buy there anymore. Cheers, RickO
I don’t think there is any such thing as a nuclear bid. If you bid 10 times, or 30 times, or 100 times comparable sales because you really want that coin, so be it. That’s what you are willing to pay.
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I did a thread on this a few months ago. I've exercised the nuclear option a few times, and thankfully I'm still here to tell the tale.
It certainly is reckless, though. I would say, only do this for those extreme situations where you are looking at an integral piece to your collection and it is unique.
You can throw out the guides when you encounter a situation like that 👍
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
What makes a bid nuclear as opposed to strong? The impression I get here is that a nuclear bid would represent a hardship on the purchaser should the auction result wind up at or near the nuclear bid. Thus, one should never do a nuclear bid.
If you want the coin, be there for the online/live bidding. If not possible, run the numbers, do a bit of gut check, consult loved ones if you are stretching outside of normal budget allocations, calculate the most you can afford, and bid just before the auction closes.
My most outrageous bids came during an auction for a wonderful half dollar that I had to have. Was not going to win it at my bid, so pushed the bidding up more than a few increments, without success. It was undisciplined on my part, but the winner apparently had unlimited funds, so I wound up helping the consigner.
A nuke bid is about how much over a coins worth one bids and not about hardship.
It depends on the rules.
Some auctions immediately convert your bid to an actual bid - old-fashioned mail-bid auctions like clubs are running.
Some auctions convert your bid to an actual bid one increment above the previous high bid. And will then bid on your behalf up to the amount you specify.
Read the rules...
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
I bid only what I am willing to bid based on a deal that works for me. Otherwise pass.
I don’t do nuclear bids. Yes there are people that do - perhaps it’s chump change to them.