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How much will the Pogue 1804 dollar in PCGS PR68 sell for?

ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,117 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited August 9, 2021 12:45AM in U.S. Coin Forum

The top pop Pogue 1804 dollar is up for auction and it's already over $3 million.

Any guesses on where it will end up?

How will it compare with other top coins like the 1933 DE, 1794 Specimen dollar and the Partrick Brasher?

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-S485N/1804-draped-bust-silver-dollar-class-i-original-bb-304-proof-68-pcgs



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beB0-1LsJ68

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Comments

  • ernie11ernie11 Posts: 1,945 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Don't know. Being the finest known adds much to its value, I'll guess between 8 and 12 million.

  • TurtleCatTurtleCat Posts: 4,600 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My random guess, excluding buyer’s premium, is $9.2 million.

  • coinandcurrency242coinandcurrency242 Posts: 1,962 ✭✭✭✭

    6.8 million without buyers premium

    Positive BST as a seller: Namvet69, Lordmarcovan, Bigjpst, Soldi, mustanggt, CoinHoader, moursund, SufinxHi, al410, JWP

  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I will guess 11.1 million.... Just based on rarity/condition and these strange times. Cheers, RickO

  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,162 ✭✭✭✭✭

    7,320,000

  • Inspired70Inspired70 Posts: 554 ✭✭✭✭✭

    8M hammer

  • CatbertCatbert Posts: 7,152 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I guess I’m more interested in who will win it than the price after considering the 33 double eagle sale went to a unknown buyer.

    Seated Half Society member #38
    "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
  • WinLoseWinWinLoseWin Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I will guess a $5.5 million hammer for a total of $6.6 million.

    With there having been 4 different examples of the original variety and 1 restrike offered at auction in the last 3 years, I think it likely diluted the demand compared to when this same coin was offered in 2016.

    Back then it hit a $9m legitimate hammer according to Stack's Bowers before Pogue bought it back as noted in this May 2016 press release.

    https://stacksbowers.com/News/Pages/PressReleases.aspx?ArticleID=Pogue-IV-Sale-Passed-16-Million

    "A world record sum of $9,000,000 was bid from the phone for the finest known 1804 dollar, which, inclusive of the buyer’s premium, would have equated to a $10,575,000 price realized"

    They noted that the 1822 Half Eagle had a real bid at $7,285,000 total before it was also bought back in the same sale. It recently brought more than a million higher at $8.4 million, but I will be suprised if this 1804 gets close to or over its previous offer.

    "To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,117 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @tradedollarnut said:
    I’d love to see $14M for purely personal reasons. B)

    Definitely agree.

    Rising tides lift all boats :)

  • ColonelJessupColonelJessup Posts: 6,442 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Whatever was bid in the initial attempted sales of the 1822 $5 and the 1804 $1 is irrelevant. The bids were more than sufficiently mishandled the last time around to raise doubts about any one bid on this coin being "sincere".

    FWIW I, more than once, "rigged a bidding war" in that I had two floor bidders hesitantly run each other up from a low opening until my unpublished reserve was the next bid. It creates the appearance of "traction". It's the diametric opposite of what might have been the last documented use of "shock and awe".

    ROFLMAO, nowadays it could just be the result of internet latency.

    1804 $1 - more than half the 1933 $20, double the Paquet.

    "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,571 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Zoins said:

    @tradedollarnut said:
    I’d love to see $14M for purely personal reasons. B)

    Definitely agree.

    Rising tides lift all boats :)

    I can understand why TDN or those who own (among) the most expensive coins have this sentiment.

    The price (higher or lower than expected) has no bearing on the coins the overwhelming majority of collectors own, including by members of this forum.

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,117 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 5, 2021 7:43AM

    @WCC said:

    @Zoins said:

    @tradedollarnut said:
    I’d love to see $14M for purely personal reasons. B)

    Definitely agree.

    Rising tides lift all boats :)

    I can understand why TDN or those who own (among) the most expensive coins have this sentiment.

    The price (higher or lower than expected) has no bearing on the coins the overwhelming majority of collectors own, including by members of this forum.

    Coins and exonumia I buy have been going up!

    Exonumia has been going through the roof and expressed by many people here.

  • ColonelJessupColonelJessup Posts: 6,442 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 5, 2021 9:07AM

    I hear there's major NFT money behind one bidder :'(
    Another potential buyer has a plan that involves downgrading it two points and giving it a bean. The shipping and insurance costs could make or break that particular "concept". But not politics.... Nooo waaaay...........

    I once suggested to Mr Albanese that he have stickers for "kosher" coins that were simply technically over-graded.
    "I'll pay fair market for this at one point less than the cert grade!"
    In the ensuing embarrassed silence, I interjected "Soooo.... Lunch is on me today" :p

    "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭

    8.5m

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • 291fifth291fifth Posts: 24,345 ✭✭✭✭✭

    $8,235,647 give or take a dollar.

    All glory is fleeting.
  • orevilleoreville Posts: 11,970 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Why does the 1804 silver dollar look so much lighter in the PCGS/Pogue slab than in the enlarged PCGS. com photo?

    A Collectors Universe poster since 1997!
  • CoinosaurusCoinosaurus Posts: 9,629 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ColonelJessup said:
    I once suggested to Mr Albanese that he have stickers for "kosher" coins that were simply technically over-graded.

    I've wondered about this too. My guess is that part of the brand appeal of CAC arises from its simplicity, and doing this would dilute that.

    As for the 1804, the question is whether or not there is a reserve.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,571 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Zoins said:

    @WCC said:

    @Zoins said:

    @tradedollarnut said:
    I’d love to see $14M for purely personal reasons. B)

    Definitely agree.

    Rising tides lift all boats :)

    I can understand why TDN or those who own (among) the most expensive coins have this sentiment.

    The price (higher or lower than expected) has no bearing on the coins the overwhelming majority of collectors own, including by members of this forum.

    Coins and exonumia I buy have been going up!

    Exonumia has been going through the roof and expressed by many people here.

    True, but how is this dependent upon the price of an 1804 dollar or any coin like it?

    With my budget and value of my collection, if I wanted a bust dollar badly enough, I could buy one. But if I did, it would likely be in the XF to mid AU grade range and in a price range of roughly $5,000 to $10,000.

    I don't see that the price performance of an 1804 dollar has much if any impact even on most bust dollars. It's already a series that the overwhelming majority of US collectors find among the most appealing, for good reason.

  • ColonelJessupColonelJessup Posts: 6,442 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 5, 2021 10:39AM

    @Coinosaurus said:
    As for the 1804, the question is whether or not there is a reserve.

    Brent's gone. The sentiment that might have muddled the earlier kerfluffle won't be a factor this time.

    "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
  • ColonelJessupColonelJessup Posts: 6,442 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @oreville said:
    Why does the 1804 silver dollar look so much lighter in the PCGS/Pogue slab than in the enlarged PCGS. com photo?

    PM sent

    "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
  • CryptoCrypto Posts: 3,687 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Can I guess PF66 money :p

    10.1m counting Juice

  • ColonelJessupColonelJessup Posts: 6,442 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Crypto said:
    Can I guess PF66 money :p

    10.1m counting Juice

    I graded the KOS coin raw 64+ when Adm. Untermann first tried to sell the set in 1984.

    "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
  • CoinJunkieCoinJunkie Posts: 8,772 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ColonelJessup said:

    @Crypto said:
    Can I guess PF66 money :p

    10.1m counting Juice

    I graded the KOS coin raw 64+ when Adm. Untermann first tried to sell the set in 1894.

    :o

  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 5, 2021 11:13AM

    Hey Rick. I see your serving time. How many days in the clink? When are visiting hours? I'll bake you a blueberry pie

    m

    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • CryptoCrypto Posts: 3,687 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ColonelJessup said:
    Whatever was bid in the initial attempted sales of the 1822 $5 and the 1804 $1 is irrelevant. The bids were more than sufficiently mishandled the last time around to raise doubts about any one bid on this coin being "sincere".

    FWIW I, more than once, "rigged a bidding war" in that I had two floor bidders hesitantly run each other up from a low opening until my unpublished reserve was the next bid. It creates the appearance of "traction". It's the diametric opposite of what might have been the last documented use of "shock and awe".

    ROFLMAO, nowadays it could just be the result of internet latency.

    1804 $1 - more than half the 1933 $20, double the Paquet.

    I would take the 1861 Paquet all day every day especially at a discount. I dream of an S mint example in choice XF

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,117 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ColonelJessup said:

    @oreville said:
    Why does the 1804 silver dollar look so much lighter in the PCGS/Pogue slab than in the enlarged PCGS. com photo?

    PM sent

    Why the PM? Enquiring minds want to know!

  • Panda4456Panda4456 Posts: 362 ✭✭✭

    That’s an ugly looking coin. Maybe 100-150 dollars at best

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,117 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 5, 2021 4:44PM

    @WCC said:

    @Zoins said:

    @WCC said:

    @Zoins said:

    @tradedollarnut said:
    I’d love to see $14M for purely personal reasons. B)

    Definitely agree.

    Rising tides lift all boats :)

    I can understand why TDN or those who own (among) the most expensive coins have this sentiment.

    The price (higher or lower than expected) has no bearing on the coins the overwhelming majority of collectors own, including by members of this forum.

    Coins and exonumia I buy have been going up!

    Exonumia has been going through the roof and expressed by many people here.

    True, but how is this dependent upon the price of an 1804 dollar or any coin like it?

    With my budget and value of my collection, if I wanted a bust dollar badly enough, I could buy one. But if I did, it would likely be in the XF to mid AU grade range and in a price range of roughly $5,000 to $10,000.

    I don't see that the price performance of an 1804 dollar has much if any impact even on most bust dollars. It's already a series that the overwhelming majority of US collectors find among the most appealing, for good reason.

    I think there's a relationship. I think people are willing to may more for low coins when they see the market going up.

    If the top coins are not going up, it gives the feeling that the market is stagnating and not growing.

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,117 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Panda4456 said:
    Maybe 100-150 dollars at best

    Good luck :)

    A Gallery Mint replica is in that price range.

  • ColonelJessupColonelJessup Posts: 6,442 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 5, 2021 4:53PM

    @Zoins said:

    @ColonelJessup said:

    @oreville said:
    Why does the 1804 silver dollar look so much lighter in the PCGS/Pogue slab than in the enlarged PCGS. com photo?

    PM sent

    Why the PM? Enquiring minds want to know!

    I was sharing with an old friend a tidbit expressing an opinion that would surely get me banned if expressed in public in the manner I so pungently chose. I hope that was sufficiently non-specific You may have been trolled >:)

    "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
  • bidaskbidask Posts: 14,017 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I’m going to guess $7.2mm with the juice !

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,291 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If it goes over 9 mil. Well, I guess it could.

  • goldengolden Posts: 9,607 ✭✭✭✭✭

    $8,600,000 hammer.

  • OldIndianNutKaseOldIndianNutKase Posts: 2,700 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I might bid $8,800,000. But if I was so lucky I would be homeless to cover the tab. Maybe a reverse mortgage?

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,117 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 6, 2021 6:05AM

    @OldIndianNutKase said:
    I might bid $8,800,000. But if I was so lucky I would be homeless to cover the tab. Maybe a reverse mortgage?

    You only live once!

  • pursuitoflibertypursuitofliberty Posts: 6,922 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Total WAG ... but I'll say she hammers at 9.2M ... and if I had that kind of capital to spend on a coin, I might consider it.


    “We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”

    Todd - BHNC #242
  • lkeigwinlkeigwin Posts: 16,892 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ColonelJessup said:
    Whatever was bid in the initial attempted sales of the 1822 $5 and the 1804 $1 is irrelevant. The bids were more than sufficiently mishandled the last time around.

    Sufficiently mishandled? Is there a degree to proper mishandling?

    My guess is $8.6 million after juice.
    Lance.

  • EastonCollectionEastonCollection Posts: 1,382 ✭✭✭✭✭

    $9,750,000

    Easton Collection
  • koynekwestkoynekwest Posts: 10,048 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It's certainly a legendary coin. I'd like to see it go for over $10 million but I think $7 million is more realistic.

  • cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 10,167 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My guess: $8-$10 million all in

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,117 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Zoins said:
    it's already over $3 million.

    It's at $4.4 million up, up from $3.8 million. Nice to see the bidding!

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,117 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Given that the King of Siam Dollar is owned by Tyrant, is this the only other opportunity to own the King of Coins provenanced to a King?

  • ConnecticoinConnecticoin Posts: 12,852 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @oreville said:
    Why does the 1804 silver dollar look so much lighter in the PCGS/Pogue slab than in the enlarged PCGS. com photo?

    Higher exposure compensation level on the camera.

  • ConnecticoinConnecticoin Posts: 12,852 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Also light is diffused differently on the coin in a full slab photo vs Trueview of a raw coin

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,117 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 15, 2021 7:51AM

    It's pretty amazing that this coin has only been auctioned twice before, in the 1917 and in 1999:

    The Sultan of Muscat-Childs-Pogue 1804 silver dollar has been graded Proof-68 by PCGS, and is the single finest example of what has long been regarded as the King of American coins. Its provenance begins with its 1835 delivery as a diplomatic gift from the United States to Said bin Sultan Al-Said, the Sultan of Muscat and Oman. Since appearing in a London auction in 1917, the 1804 dollar given to the Sultan of Muscat has sold at auction only once, in 1999, when the Pogue family acquired it, at a world record price for any coin ever sold at auction at the time. The Pogue 1804 silver dollar remains one of the five most valuable coins in the world.

    Ref: https://www.cowboysindians.com/2016/05/auction-the-most-coveted-american-coins/

  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,162 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I do wish someone would list the real grades of these darn things. I haven’t seen them all but based upon conversations and personal observations, this is my wag:

    Pogue-watters:: 65-
    King of Siam: 64+
    Dexter 64-
    Eliasberg-Mickley 63+
    Reed:63
    Hansen: 61-
    Smithsonian: 58
    Cohan - ANA 30

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭
    • has connotations of bad for the grade. could it be 65 or 64+ or is your heart set on 65- ?
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions

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