@derryb said:
The gutter ASEs are currently 44.2% over spot at APMEX as the disconnect between spot and physical prices continues to grow.
Is it possible that sellers of the real stuff are catching on that the spot price is rigged by the bullion banks? lol
No Typical end of the year just like I have to tell you every year. Mint stopped producing current year, mint now producing next year, APs not getting new stock until early January due to the switch over, hence jump in premiums for those that gotta have it now. Anyone currently paying a 44% premium on a ASE is very likely to never break even in their lifetime. Buy high and stack on!! LOL!!!
@MsMorrisine said:
Markup is dollars is the way to speak of premiums.
There is a reason the mint does it that way.
a $4 mark up on a $20 ASE sounds like a higher premium than a $3 markup on a $10 ASE but it is a lower premium. Premiums expressed in percentages more accurately reflect the direction of premiums regardless of the ASE price.
@MsMorrisine said:
Markup is dollars is the way to speak of premiums.
There is a reason the mint does it that way.
a $4 mark up on a $20 ASE sounds like a higher premium than a $3 markup on a $10 ASE but it is a lower premium. Premiums expressed in percentages more accurately reflect the direction of premiums regardless of the ASE price.
Premiums on ASE have no bearing on perception of spot vs physical prices. When 100 oz bars are trading at a 44% premium then you may be on to something. Until then it only reflects price gouging (supported by an ignorant consumer) on a limited and specific product.
@MsMorrisine said:
Markup is dollars is the way to speak of premiums.
There is a reason the mint does it that way.
a $4 mark up on a $20 ASE sounds like a higher premium than a $3 markup on a $10 ASE but it is a lower premium. Premiums expressed in percentages more accurately reflect the direction of premiums regardless of the ASE price.
Premiums on ASE have no bearing on perception of spot vs physical prices.
You started this thread using both ASEs and APMEX to track premiums. And because you don't like what the data says you now attempt to discredit it and call it irrelevant? LOL
considering over 28 million of just the 2021 ASEs alone were sold this year, one could easily argue that premiums on ASEs have a lot of bearing on perception of spot vs. physical prices. The fact that the physical silver product with the highest premiums has seen a continuous rise in premiums (as documented throughout this thread) speaks volumes of the growing disconnect between spot and physical prices. Regardless of what you try to convince yourself this is testament that ASE premiums have lots of bearing on the perception of spot vs. physical prices.
Maybe once silver regularly trades over $100 the mint might change to a %age markup
Until then, it apparently costs about $2 per coin to mint them whether silver is $1 or $30. I would welcome a markup decrease from $4 at $20 to $3 at $1 because it became $1 closer to the mint’s ~$2/coin
@MsMorrisine said:
Markup is dollars is the way to speak of premiums.
There is a reason the mint does it that way.
a $4 mark up on a $20 ASE sounds like a higher premium than a $3 markup on a $10 ASE but it is a lower premium. Premiums expressed in percentages more accurately reflect the direction of premiums regardless of the ASE price.
Premiums on ASE have no bearing on perception of spot vs physical prices.
You started this thread using both ASEs and APMEX to track premiums. And because you don't like what the data says you now attempt to discredit it and call it irrelevant? LOL
Never did i say i didnt like the data, but i have always said it is irrelevant. Until premiums are being charged on all forms of silver my opinion is unwavering.
Regardless of what you try to convince yourself this is testament that ASE premiums have lots of bearing on the perception of spot vs. physical prices.
No it doesnt. If there was a growing disconnect between spot and physical then all forms of silver would carry greater premiums, not just ASE, regardless of what you convince yourself.
@MsMorrisine said:
Maybe once silver regularly trades over $100 the mint might change to a %age markup
Until then, it apparently costs about $2 per coin to mint them whether silver is $1 or $30. I would welcome a markup decrease from $4 at $20 to $3 at $1 because it became $1 closer to the mint’s ~$2/coin
But because the premium would then be 300% at $1 vs 20% at $20, derryb would contend there is a growing disconnect between spot and physical since the premium percentage went up.
The fact that the physical silver product with the highest premiums has seen a continuous rise in premiums (as documented throughout this thread)
What has been documented in this thread is that there has been fluctuation in the premium charged on ASE of between $5-$10. We have shown that ASEs do carry a premium and that that premium can fluctuate.
If there truly was a growing disconnect then ASEs would still be trading at $40 rather than $31. This would demonstrate that no matter the fluctuation in spot, ASE would retain their value. But that didnt happen. Spot dropped $9 and so did ASEs. No disconnect.
@cohodk said:
If there truly was a growing disconnect then ASEs would still be trading at $40 rather than $31. This would demonstrate that no matter the fluctuation in spot, ASE would retain their value. But that didnt happen. Spot dropped $9 and so did ASEs. No disconnect.
Yup certainly not rocket science although it appears to be so for some. RGDS!
When I first became able to afford gold as a hedge/investment in the mid 80's, traditional classic gold had a much higher premium than the newly-created gold eagles, which made it a no brainer to buy them instead of Saints or Classic Head Gold Liberties.
If you want a little extra assurance, you buy government-minted bullion, and that carries a premium. The comparative size of the premium should always fluctuate with the market, and also with the relative liquidity of the bullion you are buying. To wit, silver eagles are significantly more liquid and divisible (hence more versatile and more liquid) than a generic 100 oz. bar.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
To wit, silver eagles are significantly more liquid and divisible (hence more versatile and more liquid) than a generic 100 oz. bar.
Because the market is comprised of folk who think in terms of $20 bills?
Not really.
The silver content of a Silver Eagle coin is easier to verify and authenticate than the silver content of a 100-oz bar.
People have more confidence in some forms of silver than they do in others.
Regardless of what you try to convince yourself this is testament that ASE premiums have lots of bearing on the perception of spot vs. physical prices.
No it doesnt. If there was a growing disconnect between spot and physical then all forms of silver would carry greater premiums, not just ASE, regardless of what you convince yourself.
Other forms of silver are carrying greater premiums.
Currently (at APMEX):
1 oz. generic silver round - 17.8%
5 oz generic silver bar - 18.7%
10 oz. generic silver bar - 18.7%
100 oz. generic silver bar - 14.2%
Ironically, equivalent gold items are carrying a much less premium. Again, testament that silver premiums indicate a much greater awareness of the disconnect between silver spot vs. physical prices. Musta been the Reddit crowd. lol.
The big difference between silver and gold premiums indicates greater silver demand and/or greater price hammering on the silver futures market that is being recognized by physical buyers.
@derryb said:
The big difference between silver and gold premiums indicates greater silver demand and/or greater price hammering on the silver futures market that is being recognized by physical buyers.
Perhaps it just means gutter stackers are dumber than gold stackers? Especially if buying at the big A which historically carries the highest premiums in the industry.
I must confess I bought some SLV this past week. Gutter out the door under spot. THKS!
Regardless of what you try to convince yourself this is testament that ASE premiums have lots of bearing on the perception of spot vs. physical prices.
No it doesnt. If there was a growing disconnect between spot and physical then all forms of silver would carry greater premiums, not just ASE, regardless of what you convince yourself.
Other forms of silver are carrying greater premiums.
Currently (at APMEX):
1 oz. generic silver round - 17.8%
5 oz generic silver bar - 18.7%
10 oz. generic silver bar - 18.7%
100 oz. generic silver bar - 14.2%
Ironically, equivalent gold items are carrying a much less premium. Again, testament that silver premiums indicate a much greater awareness of the disconnect between silver spot vs. physical prices. Musta been the Reddit crowd. lol.
The big difference between silver and gold premiums indicates greater silver demand and/or greater price hammering on the silver futures market that is being recognized by physical buyers.
If there truly was a growing disconnect then ASEs would still be trading at $40 rather than $31. This would demonstrate that no matter the fluctuation in spot, ASE would retain their value. But that didnt happen. Spot dropped $9 and so did ASEs. No disconnect.
When spot is around $21 and ASEs are around $31, there is still a major disconnect. The fact that the market moves up & down has no bearing on the disconnect - it's still there and probably growing. When you can find me some ASEs at $3 over spot, let me know.
Currently (at APMEX):
1 oz. generic silver round - 17.8%
5 oz generic silver bar - 18.7%
10 oz. generic silver bar - 18.7%
100 oz. generic silver bar - 14.2%
Generic silver has historically been much closer to spot than it is now. All of this represents continued pressure on the unregulated Crimex manipulators and their dwindling inventory.
Plan accordingly.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
>
The big difference between silver and gold premiums indicates greater silver demand and/or greater price hammering on the silver futures market that is being recognized by physical buyers.
The big difference between silver and gold premiums indicates that gold purchasers are not as foolish as silver purchasers...
>
The big difference between silver and gold premiums indicates greater silver demand and/or greater price hammering on the silver futures market that is being recognized by physical buyers.
The big difference between silver and gold premiums indicates that gold purchasers are not as foolish as silver purchasers...
So, at current prices you see gold as the better bargain. LOL
today's returns are relevant only if you cash in today. So, looking at your list of "current" returns, where are the bargains based on current expectations of continued and increasing price inflation?
Regardless of what you try to convince yourself this is testament that ASE premiums have lots of bearing on the perception of spot vs. physical prices.
No it doesnt. If there was a growing disconnect between spot and physical then all forms of silver would carry greater premiums, not just ASE, regardless of what you convince yourself.
Other forms of silver are carrying greater premiums.
Currently (at APMEX):
1 oz. generic silver round - 17.8%
5 oz generic silver bar - 18.7%
10 oz. generic silver bar - 18.7%
100 oz. generic silver bar - 14.2%
Ironically, equivalent gold items are carrying a much less premium. Again, testament that silver premiums indicate a much greater awareness of the disconnect between silver spot vs. physical prices. Musta been the Reddit crowd. lol.
The big difference between silver and gold premiums indicates greater silver demand and/or greater price hammering on the silver futures market that is being recognized by physical buyers.
I realize this was posted on Dec 11th, 2021 but using APMEX as an example to look at percentage over spot is odd. They have always been ridiculously over priced. Is there a reason you used it and I missed the explanation versus findbullionprices.com ?
You can get a 100 oz bar about 8-9% over spot right now on the secondary. If you must have brand new 11-12%. On top of that with silver spot currently falling those percentages are on the high side as I type this.
As for 1 oz coins/bars... what a terrible way to stack some silver. I do not blame sellers for asking for a large premium from people who want them. Labor intensive to make compared to a 10 oz and higher. Kilo seems to be a nice middle ground in many ways from 1 oz to 100 oz.
Regardless of what you try to convince yourself this is testament that ASE premiums have lots of bearing on the perception of spot vs. physical prices.
No it doesnt. If there was a growing disconnect between spot and physical then all forms of silver would carry greater premiums, not just ASE, regardless of what you convince yourself.
Other forms of silver are carrying greater premiums.
Currently (at APMEX):
1 oz. generic silver round - 17.8%
5 oz generic silver bar - 18.7%
10 oz. generic silver bar - 18.7%
100 oz. generic silver bar - 14.2%
Ironically, equivalent gold items are carrying a much less premium. Again, testament that silver premiums indicate a much greater awareness of the disconnect between silver spot vs. physical prices. Musta been the Reddit crowd. lol.
The big difference between silver and gold premiums indicates greater silver demand and/or greater price hammering on the silver futures market that is being recognized by physical buyers.
I realize this was posted on Dec 11th, 2021 but using APMEX as an example to look at percentage over spot is odd. They have always been ridiculously over priced. Is there a reason you used it and I missed the explanation versus findbullionprices.com ?
because it was the product and the source for the product that coho started with in the OP. Tracking/comparing data is meaningless when the sample is not consistent, wouldn't you agree? The point of the thread was to track premium change over time. Even with ASEs from APMEX this has been accomplished.
Regardless of what you try to convince yourself this is testament that ASE premiums have lots of bearing on the perception of spot vs. physical prices.
No it doesnt. If there was a growing disconnect between spot and physical then all forms of silver would carry greater premiums, not just ASE, regardless of what you convince yourself.
Other forms of silver are carrying greater premiums.
Currently (at APMEX):
1 oz. generic silver round - 17.8%
5 oz generic silver bar - 18.7%
10 oz. generic silver bar - 18.7%
100 oz. generic silver bar - 14.2%
Ironically, equivalent gold items are carrying a much less premium. Again, testament that silver premiums indicate a much greater awareness of the disconnect between silver spot vs. physical prices. Musta been the Reddit crowd. lol.
The big difference between silver and gold premiums indicates greater silver demand and/or greater price hammering on the silver futures market that is being recognized by physical buyers.
I realize this was posted on Dec 11th, 2021 but using APMEX as an example to look at percentage over spot is odd. They have always been ridiculously over priced. Is there a reason you used it and I missed the explanation versus findbullionprices.com ?
because it was the product and the source for the product that coho started with in the OP. Tracking/comparing data is meaningless when the sample is not consistent, wouldn't you agree? The point of the thread was to track premium change over time. Even with ASEs from APMEX this has been accomplished.
Makes sense. I obviously read too quickly and missed that point. Let me go back and read those posts again. Thanks.
The point of the thread was to track premium change over time.
And thus far the thread shows premium has dropped since the OP.
Compare this screenshot of ASE pricing vs spot with the same image in the OP. Premium is now $9, when then it was $12. During the summer the premium was $10-$11. Thus it appears the premium has been dropping---which is a function of reduced volatility in the spot price of silver. The premium is completely CONNECTED. Again--there is no disconnect.
@derryb said:
while they are fluctuating, silver premiums are at all time highs. lol
To add to facts listed above.
Premium on ASE was 12, now 9 for a drop of 25%. Same as the drop in spot, ASEs and 100oz bars.
You may believe in alternative facts, but your assumptions and interpretations are still incorrect.
To wit...you may think 9 is greater than 12, but the rest of us know better.
Or to put into your "odd" use of percentage a $12 premium on $28 spot is 43%. A $9 premium on $22 spot is 41%. There has been NO increase in premium.
You apparently should re-read the third post to your own thread. After seven months of tracking premium percentage changes in silver you suddenly find the method odd. LOL
Percentage over spot vs. dollars over spot (the spread) paints a much more accurate picture when determining if premiums are rising or falling on an item whose price does not remain constant. $5 over spot for a $10 item does not equal $5 over spot for a $20 item when determining the direction of premium price movement. You should apply for a job calculating CPI, they would love your talent for misdirection.
Currently Gold Eagle at APMEX
Your tracking method: $104.50 premium
My tracking method: 5.8% premium
Silver Eagle at APMEX
You: $10.99 premium
Me: 50% premium
Platinum Eagle at APMEX
You: 129.70 premium
Me: 14% premium
Which method shows the best bargain among the three coins? Knowing that spot prices are constantly fluctuating, which method provides the best indication of premium direction over time?
BONUS QUESTIONS: Although your method shows silver with the lowest dollar premium. why is a buyer, in reality, paying a greater premium for the silver? Just what does the silver premium tell us?
Oh, and for the record, that 50% premium on the APMEX silver eagle is a record high for APMEX silver eagles. So yes, physical silver premiums continue to increase, even as spot price decreases.
derryb's statements on premium percentage are spot on based on APMEX data the day the statement was made. The only thing off is coho's failure to understand (he understands) acknowledge how to paint an accurate picture when determining premium price direction on an item whose spot price is constantly changing.
Dollar premiums work just fine when comparing price movement for an item whose base (spot) price does not change. Precious metals do not enjoy a fixed price luxury.
@derryb said:
while they are fluctuating, silver premiums are at all time highs. lol
To add to facts listed above.
Premium on ASE was 12, now 9 for a drop of 25%. Same as the drop in spot, ASEs and 100oz bars.
You may believe in alternative facts, but your assumptions and interpretations are still incorrect.
To wit...you may think 9 is greater than 12, but the rest of us know better.
Or to put into your "odd" use of percentage a $12 premium on $28 spot is 43%. A $9 premium on $22 spot is 41%. There has been NO increase in premium.
You apparently should re-read the third post to your own thread. After seven months of tracking premium percentage changes in silver you suddenly find the method odd. LOL
No. Ive always thought it odd. And more than a decade of comments on this forum would confirm that. I know you think perception is reality, but thats your problem. Fortunately we do not live in your famtasy world.
Currently Gold Eagle at APMEX
Your tracking method: $104.50 premium
My tracking method: 5.8% premium
Silver Eagle at APMEX
You: $10.99 premium
Me: 50% premium
Platinum Eagle at APMEX
You: 129.70 premium
Me: 14% premium
All you've shown here is mine is bigger than yours. Now thats worthy of a LOL.
Or to put into your "odd" use of percentage a $12 premium on $28 spot is 43%. A $9 premium on $22 spot is 41%. There has been NO increase in premium.
So in short - derryb's statement that premiums are at an all time high is off by ~2%. Oh the humanity...
This mini dialog was intitaited by derry be stating premiums were increasing and this represented a disconnect between physocal and spot prices. He has thus been proven incorrect.
And BTW--premiums--as a percentage as derryb likes--were actually higher when silver crashed in 2008. So they are NOT at an all-time high.
Maybe you could contribute actual information rathet than snide remarks or LOL to comments which merely illustrate your jealously.
@derryb said:
derryb's statements on premium percentage are spot on based on APMEX data the day the statement was made. The only thing off is coho's failure to understand (he understands) acknowledge how to paint an accurate picture when determining premium price direction on an item whose spot price is constantly changing.
Dollar premiums work just fine when comparing price movement for an item whose base (spot) price does not change. Precious metals do not enjoy a fixed price luxury.
premiums--as a percentage as derryb likes--were actually higher when silver crashed in 2008. So they are NOT at an all-time high
The dynamics do seem to be different now than in 2008. There is no housing market crash bringing down all markets, yet.
There is a perpetual stock market rally being financed by the Fed. The pms are being suppressed while the regulators turn a blind eye to gross illegal market manipulation and the most that JPM gets is a slap on the wrist - hardly any kind of deterrent.
In 2008, higher premiums were the result of resistance to selling by market participants who bought during a significant price runup. In 2021, higher premiums are the result of resistance to selling by market participants who recognize the price manipulation for what it is and believe that the manipulation won't continue indefintely as runaway inflation rears its head.
In both cases, the premiums are being driven by the real market participants but the reasons are different. It's almost as if the premiums are on a different scale in 2021 than in 2008.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
increasing/high premiums speak for themselves regardless of what anyone here has to say. What matters is if one is listening to those premiums or only to themselves. LOL
premiums are high because buyers are willing to pay them. They know that silver is actually on sale.
Comments
And travel expenses to and from the post office
And time to open and store coin
There is no credit for composting or otherwise recycling the box
Perhaps you should try SLV. A whole lot less hassle, Gutter Paper > Gutter Metal. YW!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
The gutter ASEs are currently 44.2% over spot at APMEX as the disconnect between spot and physical prices continues to grow.
Is it possible that sellers of the real stuff are catching on that the spot price is rigged by the bullion banks? lol
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
No Typical end of the year just like I have to tell you every year. Mint stopped producing current year, mint now producing next year, APs not getting new stock until early January due to the switch over, hence jump in premiums for those that gotta have it now. Anyone currently paying a 44% premium on a ASE is very likely to never break even in their lifetime. Buy high and stack on!! LOL!!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Markup is dollars is the way to speak of premiums.
There is a reason the mint does it that way.
a $4 mark up on a $20 ASE sounds like a higher premium than a $3 markup on a $10 ASE but it is a lower premium. Premiums expressed in percentages more accurately reflect the direction of premiums regardless of the ASE price.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Premiums on ASE have no bearing on perception of spot vs physical prices. When 100 oz bars are trading at a 44% premium then you may be on to something. Until then it only reflects price gouging (supported by an ignorant consumer) on a limited and specific product.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You started this thread using both ASEs and APMEX to track premiums. And because you don't like what the data says you now attempt to discredit it and call it irrelevant? LOL
considering over 28 million of just the 2021 ASEs alone were sold this year, one could easily argue that premiums on ASEs have a lot of bearing on perception of spot vs. physical prices. The fact that the physical silver product with the highest premiums has seen a continuous rise in premiums (as documented throughout this thread) speaks volumes of the growing disconnect between spot and physical prices. Regardless of what you try to convince yourself this is testament that ASE premiums have lots of bearing on the perception of spot vs. physical prices.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Maybe once silver regularly trades over $100 the mint might change to a %age markup
Until then, it apparently costs about $2 per coin to mint them whether silver is $1 or $30. I would welcome a markup decrease from $4 at $20 to $3 at $1 because it became $1 closer to the mint’s ~$2/coin
Unlike retailers, premiums from the mint are not to make profit. that is why they remain fixed for so long.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Never did i say i didnt like the data, but i have always said it is irrelevant. Until premiums are being charged on all forms of silver my opinion is unwavering.
Regardless of what you try to convince yourself this is testament that ASE premiums have lots of bearing on the perception of spot vs. physical prices.
No it doesnt. If there was a growing disconnect between spot and physical then all forms of silver would carry greater premiums, not just ASE, regardless of what you convince yourself.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
But because the premium would then be 300% at $1 vs 20% at $20, derryb would contend there is a growing disconnect between spot and physical since the premium percentage went up.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The fact that the physical silver product with the highest premiums has seen a continuous rise in premiums (as documented throughout this thread)
What has been documented in this thread is that there has been fluctuation in the premium charged on ASE of between $5-$10. We have shown that ASEs do carry a premium and that that premium can fluctuate.
If there truly was a growing disconnect then ASEs would still be trading at $40 rather than $31. This would demonstrate that no matter the fluctuation in spot, ASE would retain their value. But that didnt happen. Spot dropped $9 and so did ASEs. No disconnect.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yup certainly not rocket science although it appears to be so for some. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
When I first became able to afford gold as a hedge/investment in the mid 80's, traditional classic gold had a much higher premium than the newly-created gold eagles, which made it a no brainer to buy them instead of Saints or Classic Head Gold Liberties.
If you want a little extra assurance, you buy government-minted bullion, and that carries a premium. The comparative size of the premium should always fluctuate with the market, and also with the relative liquidity of the bullion you are buying. To wit, silver eagles are significantly more liquid and divisible (hence more versatile and more liquid) than a generic 100 oz. bar.
I knew it would happen.
Because the market is comprised of folk who think in terms of $20 bills?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Not really.
The silver content of a Silver Eagle coin is easier to verify and authenticate than the silver content of a 100-oz bar.
People have more confidence in some forms of silver than they do in others.
Because the market is comprised of folk who think in terms of $20 bills?
More so than it is comprised of folk who think in terms of 5,000 oz. contracts backed by paper.
I knew it would happen.
Ah yes....blissful thinking. 😉
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Other forms of silver are carrying greater premiums.
Currently (at APMEX):
1 oz. generic silver round - 17.8%
5 oz generic silver bar - 18.7%
10 oz. generic silver bar - 18.7%
100 oz. generic silver bar - 14.2%
Ironically, equivalent gold items are carrying a much less premium. Again, testament that silver premiums indicate a much greater awareness of the disconnect between silver spot vs. physical prices. Musta been the Reddit crowd. lol.
The big difference between silver and gold premiums indicates greater silver demand and/or greater price hammering on the silver futures market that is being recognized by physical buyers.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Perhaps it just means gutter stackers are dumber than gold stackers? Especially if buying at the big A which historically carries the highest premiums in the industry.
I must confess I bought some SLV this past week. Gutter out the door under spot.
THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Maybe this is why physical buyers are willing to pay such a high premium in the open market.
Taking delivery of Comex silver becomes a comic odyssey:
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
We've been over this ad nauseam. No disconnect.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If there truly was a growing disconnect then ASEs would still be trading at $40 rather than $31. This would demonstrate that no matter the fluctuation in spot, ASE would retain their value. But that didnt happen. Spot dropped $9 and so did ASEs. No disconnect.
When spot is around $21 and ASEs are around $31, there is still a major disconnect. The fact that the market moves up & down has no bearing on the disconnect - it's still there and probably growing. When you can find me some ASEs at $3 over spot, let me know.
Currently (at APMEX):
1 oz. generic silver round - 17.8%
5 oz generic silver bar - 18.7%
10 oz. generic silver bar - 18.7%
100 oz. generic silver bar - 14.2%
Generic silver has historically been much closer to spot than it is now. All of this represents continued pressure on the unregulated Crimex manipulators and their dwindling inventory.
Plan accordingly.
I knew it would happen.
The big difference between silver and gold premiums indicates that gold purchasers are not as foolish as silver purchasers...
So, at current prices you see gold as the better bargain. LOL
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Bad News
Bad News
Good News…
Bad News…Headline Inflation hits 39 Year High
Bad News…You invested in Silver to hedge against Inflation and Silver is Down 15.8% YTD
Good News…You did Not invest in Argentine Peso Down 17.1% YTD or Turkish Lira Down 46.4% YTD…
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Swiss Franc -3.9
Norwegian Krone -4.1
Czech Koruna – 4.1
Uruguayan Peso -4.2
Malaysian Ringgit -4.5
Philippine Peso -4.6
Mexican Peso -4.8
New Zealand Dollar -5.4
Cocoa -5.4
20+ Yr. U.S. Treasurys -5.6
Gold –5.8
Emerging-Markets Bonds -5.9
Australian Dollar -6.8
Croatian Kuna -7.0
Danish Krone -7.3
Euro- 7.4
Brazilian Real -7.5
Bulgarian Lev -7.5
South Korean Won -8.1
South African Rand -8.1
Hungarian Forint -8.1
Polish Zloty -8.5
Japanese Yen -8.9
Romanian New Leu -9.0
Swedish Krona -9.1
Bovespa Index (Brazil) -9.5
Pakistani Rupee -9.8
Thai Baht -10.6
Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -11.9
Platinum -13.1
Chilean Peso –15.8
Silver -15.8
Argentine Peso -17.1
Turkish Lira -46.4
today's returns are relevant only if you cash in today. So, looking at your list of "current" returns, where are the bargains based on current expectations of continued and increasing price inflation?
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Don’t know what the current premiums are right now, but silver has dropped below $22.00.
At this writing, ask price on Kitco is $21.79.
I realize this was posted on Dec 11th, 2021 but using APMEX as an example to look at percentage over spot is odd. They have always been ridiculously over priced. Is there a reason you used it and I missed the explanation versus findbullionprices.com ?
You can get a 100 oz bar about 8-9% over spot right now on the secondary. If you must have brand new 11-12%. On top of that with silver spot currently falling those percentages are on the high side as I type this.
As for 1 oz coins/bars... what a terrible way to stack some silver. I do not blame sellers for asking for a large premium from people who want them. Labor intensive to make compared to a 10 oz and higher. Kilo seems to be a nice middle ground in many ways from 1 oz to 100 oz.
Normally lurk but had to post! hello everyone.
Good to see you back fc. We miss your logical and reasoned thoughts
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
because it was the product and the source for the product that coho started with in the OP. Tracking/comparing data is meaningless when the sample is not consistent, wouldn't you agree? The point of the thread was to track premium change over time. Even with ASEs from APMEX this has been accomplished.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Makes sense. I obviously read too quickly and missed that point. Let me go back and read those posts again. Thanks.
The point of the thread was to track premium change over time.
And thus far the thread shows premium has dropped since the OP.
Compare this screenshot of ASE pricing vs spot with the same image in the OP. Premium is now $9, when then it was $12. During the summer the premium was $10-$11. Thus it appears the premium has been dropping---which is a function of reduced volatility in the spot price of silver. The premium is completely CONNECTED. Again--there is no disconnect.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A May 18th post shows spot at $28.19 and ASEs offered at $42.18. 100oz bars were offered at $32.20/oz
Today spot shows at 22.06 and ASE at $31.05. 100oz bars are offered at $24.95/oz.
Since the OP spot has dropped 21,7%
ASEs have dropped 26.4%
100oz bars have dropped 22.5%
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
while they are fluctuating, silver premiums are at all time highs. lol
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
To add to facts listed above.
Premium on ASE was 12, now 9 for a drop of 25%. Same as the drop in spot, ASEs and 100oz bars.
You may believe in alternative facts, but your assumptions and interpretations are still incorrect.
To wit...you may think 9 is greater than 12, but the rest of us know better.
Or to put into your "odd" use of percentage a $12 premium on $28 spot is 43%. A $9 premium on $22 spot is 41%. There has been NO increase in premium.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You apparently should re-read the third post to your own thread. After seven months of tracking premium percentage changes in silver you suddenly find the method odd. LOL
Percentage over spot vs. dollars over spot (the spread) paints a much more accurate picture when determining if premiums are rising or falling on an item whose price does not remain constant. $5 over spot for a $10 item does not equal $5 over spot for a $20 item when determining the direction of premium price movement. You should apply for a job calculating CPI, they would love your talent for misdirection.
Currently
Gold Eagle at APMEX
Silver Eagle at APMEX
Platinum Eagle at APMEX
Which method shows the best bargain among the three coins? Knowing that spot prices are constantly fluctuating, which method provides the best indication of premium direction over time?
BONUS QUESTIONS: Although your method shows silver with the lowest dollar premium. why is a buyer, in reality, paying a greater premium for the silver? Just what does the silver premium tell us?
Oh, and for the record, that 50% premium on the APMEX silver eagle is a record high for APMEX silver eagles. So yes, physical silver premiums continue to increase, even as spot price decreases.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
So in short - derryb's statement that premiums are at an all time high is off by ~2%. Oh the humanity...
derryb's statements on premium percentage are spot on based on APMEX data the day the statement was made. The only thing off is coho's failure to understand (he understands) acknowledge how to paint an accurate picture when determining premium price direction on an item whose spot price is constantly changing.
Dollar premiums work just fine when comparing price movement for an item whose base (spot) price does not change. Precious metals do not enjoy a fixed price luxury.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
No. Ive always thought it odd. And more than a decade of comments on this forum would confirm that. I know you think perception is reality, but thats your problem. Fortunately we do not live in your famtasy world.
All you've shown here is mine is bigger than yours. Now thats worthy of a LOL.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
zing!
I knew it would happen.
This mini dialog was intitaited by derry be stating premiums were increasing and this represented a disconnect between physocal and spot prices. He has thus been proven incorrect.
And BTW--premiums--as a percentage as derryb likes--were actually higher when silver crashed in 2008. So they are NOT at an all-time high.
Maybe you could contribute actual information rathet than snide remarks or LOL to comments which merely illustrate your jealously.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Dude...spot dropped 25%. Premium dropped 25%. Physical ASEs dropped 25%.
Who has the failure to understand here?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Supply and demand. Until the last drop is squeezed out.
It's a buy day, by golly.
premiums--as a percentage as derryb likes--were actually higher when silver crashed in 2008. So they are NOT at an all-time high
The dynamics do seem to be different now than in 2008. There is no housing market crash bringing down all markets, yet.
There is a perpetual stock market rally being financed by the Fed. The pms are being suppressed while the regulators turn a blind eye to gross illegal market manipulation and the most that JPM gets is a slap on the wrist - hardly any kind of deterrent.
In 2008, higher premiums were the result of resistance to selling by market participants who bought during a significant price runup. In 2021, higher premiums are the result of resistance to selling by market participants who recognize the price manipulation for what it is and believe that the manipulation won't continue indefintely as runaway inflation rears its head.
In both cases, the premiums are being driven by the real market participants but the reasons are different. It's almost as if the premiums are on a different scale in 2021 than in 2008.
I knew it would happen.
increasing/high premiums speak for themselves regardless of what anyone here has to say. What matters is if one is listening to those premiums or only to themselves. LOL
premiums are high because buyers are willing to pay them. They know that silver is actually on sale.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt