What are premiums now? Have been able to derive future prices based on premiums? Has buying high premium silver proven better return than low or no premium silver?
Premiums generally go up when spot goes down.
Premiums generally go down when spot goes up.
Think of a premium as the "extra" profit a seller expects. His expectations increase as demand (thus prices) increases.
However, at the end of the day gold is gold and silver is silver.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
Supply availability for silver and gold seems to be back to the normal historic levels. So no loner a shortage. Market makers are paying dealers under spot for most products. Take a look at the JM website, their buy prices are pretty far under spot. It wasn't that long ago that everything was selling for big premiums. If you believe the move up in metals will continue then premiums look like a bargain at these levels.
@tyler267 said:
Take a look at the JM website, their buy prices are pretty far under spot. It wasn't that long ago that everything was selling for big premiums.
So we need to be careful when paying premiums as they could become discounts and there is a possibility we make nothing at all, even if spot increases?
A person might also pay a pretty high premium for something that is considered a "rare" or "desirable" collectible item (coin, round, or ingot).
Premiums on such items can be many multiples of the metal content, and these premiums can go up or down in a manner that is not necessarily correlated to the change in the price of the metal.
Items with a low to moderate premium (ordinary Silver Eagles, for example) will typically have premiums that shrink when the metal price goes up and expand when the metal price goes down. In this manner, the final price of the item (which is the metal content plus premium) is less volatile than the metal price itself.
@derryb said:
One pays premiums knowing they will be recovered when spot increases. . . if it increases.
In the OP spot was 26.63 and ASE were 38.62. Yesterday spot was 32.15 and ASE 37.14.
Spot increased almost 21% while ASE declined by almost 4%. Spot appears to have been the better buy. Lower premium physical such as 100oz bars appear to have a small positive return. However, one who attempts to sell physical would most likely receive much lower prices than retail ask, thus greater negative return over last 4 years.
Over last 4 years Spot has an annual return of approx 4.82%.
Premiums are nothing more than a man-made "tariff" passed onto the sheep. No premiums in the SLV. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
@blitzdude said:
Premiums are nothing more than a man-made "tariff" passed onto the sheep. No premiums in the SLV. RGDS!
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SLV has a NEGATIVE premium that only goes more negative over time.
It is the WORST form of silver to hold long-term because half a percent of it evaporates every year due to the SLV fee structure.
Most Silver Eagles are too common to ever command much of a collector premium.
Some collectible silver ingots have premiums that have increased dramatically in the last 10 years or so.
Sometimes, rather than speculating on the price of the metal, it is better to speculate on the potential increase in premium for a specific collector item.
@blitzdude said:
Premiums are nothing more than a man-made "tariff" passed onto the sheep. No premiums in the SLV. RGDS!
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SLV has a NEGATIVE premium that only goes more negative over time.
It is the WORST form of silver to hold long-term because half a percent of it evaporates every year due to the SLV fee structure.
On the date of the OP, SLV closed at 24.57. Yesterday it closed at 29.30 for a gain of 19%. Seems it has outperformed physical silver rounds, ASEs and bars.
How much premium "evaporated"?
Tell me how it's been the worse over the last 4 years?
Can't believe someone actually "liked" your comment. Lol
@blitzdude said:
Premiums are nothing more than a man-made "tariff" passed onto the sheep. No premiums in the SLV. RGDS!
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SLV has a NEGATIVE premium that only goes more negative over time.
It is the WORST form of silver to hold long-term because half a percent of it evaporates every year due to the SLV fee structure.
On the date of the OP, SLV closed at 24.57. Yesterday it closed at 29.30 for a gain of 19%. Seems it has outperformed physical silver rounds, ASEs and bars.
How much premium "evaporated"?
Tell me how it's been the worse over the last 4 years?
Can't believe someone actually "liked" your comment. Lol
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The Original Post ("OP") was 4 years ago. That is not a long term.
Investopedia defines a "long-term" holding as 7 to 10 years, or more.
When the price of silver goes down, premiums on physical items tend to go up. This somewhat insulates against losses.
With SLV, however, the premium ALWAYS goes down, regardless of what direction the price of silver moves.
The average SLV price during the first year it was offered (2006) was about $12.50 .
The spot price of silver at that time was about the same. As of yesterday, spot silver was about $32.30 .
So SLV has underperformed spot silver by $3 over the SLV lifespan. If a person held SLV for that entire time, about 10% of their holdings of silver would have "evaporated" due to the SLV fees.
"Collector" premiums can go up or down MUCH more than the "spot" price.
For example:
In 2006, San Francisco Mint Assay Office bars from the late 1950s to mid 1960s were selling for about $600 to $800 per ingot. This 5.69-troy-oz bar sold at Heritage Auctions in 2006 for $632.50 : https://coins.ha.com/itm/a/400-4181.s
The most recent Heritage sale of a similar bar was early this year (February 2025). The 6.91-troy-oz ingot sold for $6,600 : https://coins.ha.com/itm/a/1381-4061.s
Neither the 2006 price nor the 2025 price are abberations. They were the normal going prices for such bars in each time frame. And although the premium above spot was very large in 2006, it increased by more than 10-fold by 2025.
Using your cherry-picked time frame, similar bars to those linked above were selling for about $4,000 to $4,500 in 2021.
This 6.02-troy-oz bar sold at a Heritage auction in 2021 for $4,080 : https://coins.ha.com/itm//a/1334-3446.s
So that is about a 50% increase in the premium since 2021.
I would never put any of my money in SLV. What modest amount I might have I would put into some scarce and/or unusual silver items that are a lot more interesting and fun to hold in my hands.
You just wasted an hour of time trying to find some rare bars to prove your point--a point we are not even discussing. LOL
Yeah, the heck with 4 years or That is not a long term.
Investopedia defines a "long-term" holding as 7 to 10 years, or more ----lets go 19 years. Long-term enough for ya?
The average SLV price during the first year it was offered (2006) was about $12.50 .
The spot price of silver at that time was about the same. As of yesterday, spot silver was about $32.30
The actual average was under $12, but lets do math by your numbers. 12.5 (buy price) to 29.30 (sell price) is 134%.
An ASE in 2006 was about $16 (retail buy price) and today JM bullion buy price (sell to) is 32.50 for a 103% return. Im just a redneck hillbilly but I do believe 134 is more than 103.
What modest amount I might have I would put into some scarce and/or unusual silver items that are a lot more interesting and fun to hold in my hands
@RedneckHB said:
You just wasted an hour of time trying to find some rare bars to prove your point--a point we are not even discussing. LOL
Yeah, the heck with 4 years or That is not a long term.
Investopedia defines a "long-term" holding as 7 to 10 years, or more ----lets go 19 years. Long-term enough for ya?
The average SLV price during the first year it was offered (2006) was about $12.50 .
The spot price of silver at that time was about the same. As of yesterday, spot silver was about $32.30
The actual average was under $12, but lets do math by your numbers. 12.5 (buy price) to 29.30 (sell price) is 134%.
An ASE in 2006 was about $16 (retail buy price) and today JM bullion buy price (sell to) is 32.50 for a 103% return. Im just a redneck hillbilly but I do believe 134 is more than 103.
What modest amount I might have I would put into some scarce and/or unusual silver items that are a lot more interesting and fun to hold in my hands
You do you. Ill do me. Ok with you?
This the "silver premium tracking thread". This is also a collecting website. So it is appropriate to discuss the relatively high premiums on numismatic silver items, especially ingots and other items that were (at one time) just a hunk of silver worth the "melt" price (or less). I think it will be interesting to continue to track the premiums on US Government Mint/Assay-Office ingots and other rare bars.
I did not mention Silver Eagles (ASEs) at all in my post. I referred to silver "spot".
Are you just a "Redneck Hillbilly" that always pays retail and sells at wholesale ?
A person can pretty easily avoid the middle man and buy/sell without the middleman spread.
Compare 2006 wholesale to 2025 wholesale, or compare 2006 retail to 2025 retail.
But comparing 2006 retail (buy) to 2025 wholesale (sell) is a statistical "damned lie" as Mark Twain would put it.
2006 ASE retail price (according to you): $16, multiplied by your SLV 134% performance, equals $37.44 .
Is the retail price of an ASE at or above $37.44 currently ?
APMEX: $37.51
eBay free-shipping lots with one Silver Eagle (genuine, not impaired, not from China): the vast majority sold for $38 or higher.
So SLV has NOT been a better performer than a Silver Eagle during the time span (2021-2015).
Realistically, the average person will probably not net the full retail price when they sell. But they can certainly find deals and not pay the full retail price when they buy.
PS:
I like researching numismatic items, including price history. It is always good to learn about such things. You should try it sometime.
Dude...you're the one who keeps bringing up the SLV stuff. Stop with the incessant gaslighting.
You claimed i was picking a time frame when I was just going by the date of the OP. So then I proved you wrong by using your timeframe. Now you want to make up some other time frame. Maybe we should bring your quotes up everytime you accuse someone of making up some timeframe for their narrative?
And im applying real world scenarios. The average Joe buys at retail and sell at wholesale. That's the way it works. To claim otherwise is a "damned lie". Joe ain't buying rare mint assay bars or private mint ingots. He's buying common ASE, bars and rounds...or an exchange traded product.
Perhaps you would like to contribute to the thread and discuss the massive premiums paid and supposed lack of silver supply or excessive demand---whatever the narrative was--and explain how to avoid or take advantage of such a situation in the future?
@RedneckHB said:
Dude...you're the one who keeps bringing up the SLV stuff. Stop with the incessant gaslighting.
You claimed i was picking a time frame when I was just going by the date of the OP. So then I proved you wrong by using your timeframe. Now you want to make up some other time frame. Maybe we should bring your quotes up everytime you accuse someone of making up some timeframe for their narrative?
And im applying real world scenarios. The average Joe buys at retail and sell at wholesale. That's the way it works. To claim otherwise is a "damned lie". Joe ain't buying rare mint assay bars or private mint ingots. He's buying common ASE, bars and rounds...or an exchange traded product.
Perhaps you would like to contribute to the thread and discuss the massive premiums paid and supposed lack of silver supply or excessive demand---whatever the narrative was--and explain how to avoid or take advantage of such a situation in the future?
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I will continue to discuss SLV whenever I think it is warranted. And that is pretty often in this forum because it is frequently brought up by other "contributors" here.
You are the one who keeps bringing up the hypothetical "average Joe" (six-pack, I assume). Do you, yourself, buy at full retail and sell at wholesale ? I didn't think so.
I used your time frame (2021 to present). I also used 2006 to present because 2006 is when SLV started. I showed that a Silver Eagle bought in 2006 has had the same return as SLV (when the buy and sell are both at the same side of the table).
Your so-called "real world scenario" does not apply to you or me, so it is irrelevant.
The normal premium for an ordinary Silver Eagle, historically, has been about $1 to $3. Premiums much higher than that are a short-term aberration that I did not participate in. Ordinary Silver Eagles are not rare enough for me to justify paying a high premium.
Your hypothesis was proven wrong. Get over it. Unless you want to continue and be proven wrong again. Didn't Einstein say something about doing the same thing over and over again hoping for a different outcome?
You keep trying to make this a personal, you or me thing, Stop it already. Your infatuation with me is worrisome.
@RedneckHB said:
Your hypothesis was proven wrong. Get over it. Unless you want to continue and be proven wrong again. Didn't Einstein say something about doing the same thing over and over again hoping for a different outcome?
You keep trying to make this a personal, you or me thing, Stop it already. Your infatuation with me is worrisome.
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You will not dictate what I write on this forum.
You can always ignore whatever I post here.
What we saw in the last few years was more demand than supply for physical. Drove up premiums, private mints expanded capacity while demand for physical went down and spot went up. So maybe we see low premiums until we have a geopolitical crisis or more manufacturing capacity leaves the market. Same old same old, what is different this time is how much of the physical distribution and manufacturing is controlled by one big company.
as physical gold moves into tighter hands (higher prices) demand for silver bullion will increase. When you want fish but can no longer afford Chilean sea bass you learn to enjoy grouper.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
I don't own any silver ETFs, but I have occasionally in the past. I consider ETF fees to be a substitute for storage fees and/or insurance, as well as the price to pay for greater liquidity, a smaller buy/sell spread, and less time and inconvenience when buying or selling.
This used to be a very active thread when premium s were rising. Now that wholesale premiums have been negative for several months and continue to fall, I wanted to see if we can use this thread to discuss the cyclical nature of not just metal prices but also premiums. This cycle of expanding and falling premiums is very dramatic, but it's normal for precious metals.
@MsMorrisine said:
how long has this cycle been documented?
5-6000 years in our recorded history. Millions, perhaps billions of years if we include the real world. I suspect a reset is in order so the "recorded" will soon start over again. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
@MsMorrisine said:
how long has this cycle been documented?
I'm confused by your question are you asking for an empirical study? If it exists I'm not aware of it. And if you can find one how would you use it to improve your decision making? Please teach me I want to learn.
@dcarr said:
If you bought a little bit of silver at the average price for the year, every year, over the long term your holdings >would have kept up with inflation.
But that is ONLY because silver has experienced tremendous volatility to the downside and then bounced back to a level it first hit 14 years ago. No retail investor could withstand that volatility in their investment (let alone an entire portfolio) and even consider adding more at lower prices.
It's why PM's are simply not suitable for anything more than speculative dollars in a portfolio. Drawdowns and volatility are simply too high for a fiduciary or an individual investor except in small amounts.
@derryb said:
ASE premiums (spread over spot) are definitely on the rise. My go to cheapest dealer (Bullion Exchanges) is selling ASEs @6.20 over spot if you buy at least 20 coins. JM Bullion is asking $8.96 over spot for 20 coins.
I thought premiums had come down or even disappeared ? At least it's the same premium as 4-5 years ago but with silver at 2x the price meaning the % to the metal price is less.
@dcarr said:
If you bought a little bit of silver at the average price for the year, every year, over the long term your holdings >would have kept up with inflation.
But that is ONLY because silver has experienced tremendous volatility to the downside and then bounced back to a level it first hit 14 years ago. No retail investor could withstand that volatility in their investment (let alone an entire portfolio) and even consider adding more at lower prices.
It's why PM's are simply not suitable for anything more than speculative dollars in a portfolio. Drawdowns and volatility are simply too high for a fiduciary or an individual investor except in small amounts.
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There is no such thing as a "retail investor".
They are actually "retail speculators" at best.
And "retail chumps" at worst.
I just looked on eBay and searched for "Silver Eagle roll" (no, not the edible kind).
Actual sales for 13 October 2025, for full rolls of common-date Silver Eagles, with shipping added in, ranged from about $1,075 to $1,300 per roll of 20. The typical (average) lower-range price appears to have been about $1,140 ($57 per coin).
So people are paying about $57 each in quantity.
Of course, sellers have to pay shipping and eBay fees out of that. So the sellers are netting less than "spot", but not a lot less.
I personally would use a lower-cost venue to buy and sell (such as a coin show).
Look what happened with the recent drop in the "paper" price for silver.
Silver Eagles are now selling at a +$14 premium to "spot".
Below is a current APMEX screen shot. Actual sales of Silver Eagle rolls on eBay are at similar prices.
This confirms my previous statements that SLV and other paper derivatives take the full hit on a drop in the silver "spot" price, while actual (physical) coins do not drop as much (thus insulating the holder somewhat from the drop).
It is just the usual case where holders of physical silver do not want to sell at the lower price.
While click-addict "paper" silver speculators get played on their stop-loss orders.
@dcarr said:
Look what happened with the recent drop in the "paper" price for silver.
Silver Eagles are now selling at a +$14 premium to "spot".
Below is a current APMEX screen shot. Actual sales of Silver Eagle rolls on eBay are at similar prices.
This confirms my previous statements that SLV and other paper derivatives take the full hit on a drop in the silver "spot" price, while actual (physical) coins do not drop as much (thus insulating the holder somewhat from the drop).
It is just the usual case where holders of physical silver do not want to sell at the lower price.
While click-addict "paper" silver speculators get played on their stop-loss orders.
The last 6-9 months have only demonstrated that Blitz's strategy on paper silver has been correct. But someone who lacks reason and logic and has a poor understanding of markets may disagree.
@dcarr said:
Look what happened with the recent drop in the "paper" price for silver.
Silver Eagles are now selling at a +$14 premium to "spot".
Below is a current APMEX screen shot. Actual sales of Silver Eagle rolls on eBay are at similar prices.
This confirms my previous statements that SLV and other paper derivatives take the full hit on a drop in the silver "spot" price, while actual (physical) coins do not drop as much (thus insulating the holder somewhat from the drop).
It is just the usual case where holders of physical silver do not want to sell at the lower price.
While click-addict "paper" silver speculators get played on their stop-loss orders.
The last 6-9 months have only demonstrated that Blitz's strategy on paper silver has been correct. But someone who lacks reason and logic and has a poor understanding of markets may disagree.
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Gambling is not a strategy.
The last month demonstrates that paper speculating does not really work out so well for click-addicts.
Gambling is not a strategy.
The last month demonstrates that paper speculating does not really work out so well for click-addicts.
Trading silver and natural gas over the COMEX has a good nickname for a reason: the widow maker.
While I own a large amount of silver that I've had for many decades, since I got most of it at the bank in rolls at face and then over the years more with early ASEs, the spread is too wide for trading it actively.
For longer term trading I use PSLV, which is superior to SLV in that PSLV is 100% backed by actual silver and you can take delivery if you have enough shares for a 1000oz bar. SLV is not fully backed by silver and uses both futures and options, so in a real market event it will have an extreme discount or simply fail. It is okay for very short term trades (long or short) using SLV options for their liquidity if you spend enough for high quality information.
But you need to isolate that completely from your collecting side, if like me, you are also a collector. My latest big prize was finding a 1917 DDO in MS64 at HA, so now I am down to one in my MS wheat set: of course it's the 1922 FS-401 that is currently just an XF40. But enough about collecting. I do expect a bit more of a bounce in silver but it has a significant chance in moving quite a bit lower if the COMEX can deliver March physical demand and things can calm down.
@dcarr said:
Look what happened with the recent drop in the "paper" price for silver.
Silver Eagles are now selling at a +$14 premium to "spot".
Below is a current APMEX screen shot. Actual sales of Silver Eagle rolls on eBay are at similar prices.
This confirms my previous statements that SLV and other paper derivatives take the full hit on a drop in the silver "spot" price, while actual (physical) coins do not drop as much (thus insulating the holder somewhat from the drop).
It is just the usual case where holders of physical silver do not want to sell at the lower price.
While click-addict "paper" silver speculators get played on their stop-loss orders.
The last 6-9 months have only demonstrated that Blitz's strategy on paper silver has been correct. But someone who lacks reason and logic and has a poor understanding of markets may disagree.
.
Gambling is not a strategy.
The last month demonstrates that paper speculating does not really work out so well for click-addicts.
.
Speak for yourself. RGDS!
P.S. Who will buy ye gutter? THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
For longer term trading I use PSLV, which is superior to SLV in that PSLV is 100% backed by actual silver and you can take delivery if you have enough shares for a 1000oz bar. SLV is not fully backed by silver and uses both futures and options, so in a real market event it will have an extreme discount or simply fail. It is okay for very short term trades (long or short) using SLV options for their liquidity if you spend enough for high quality information.
PSLV is a closed end mutual fund which can trade at a discount or premium to net asset value.
Currently it trades at Bid $25.06, Ask $25.18. MONEX's silver spot is $77.37. How do the two relate to each other?
Is PSLV currently trading at a discount or a premium? PSLV was $38.13 when silver spot was at it's high of $117.66.
While it is a closed end fund, they can issue shares if they buy more silver in advance. Most recently it was about .34 ounces per share so it trades at a slight premium at present. It went to a small discount when silver hit its spot high. When I initially purchased my current holding it was at a very slight discount last Fall, so it varies a bit. It tends to stay relatively close though as it can be arbitraged to spot by taking delivery and selling the 1000 oz bar. The spread is far less than physical though, and it is much closer to owning physical than SLV.
I prefer the SLV. It's the 800lb gorilla and the most liquid gutter on planet earth. RGDS!
Edit: Disclaimer, not endorsing at the moment. Need to wait for the coming collapse before buying back in. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
“While it is a closed end fund, they can issue shares if they buy more silver in advance. Most recently it was about .34 ounces per share so it trades at a slight premium at present. It went to a small discount when silver hit its spot high. When I initially purchased my current holding it was at a very slight discount last Fall, so it varies a bit. It tends to stay relatively close though as it can be arbitraged to spot by taking delivery and selling the 1000 oz bar. The spread is far less than physical though, and it is much closer to owning physical than SLV.”
According to the Sprott site, in US$ terms PSLV is currently trading at a discount of 5.45 %. Since inception (in October 2010) it has traded anywhere between a premium of 33.91 and a discount of 10.34. Am I interpreting things wrong? These figures don’t seem consistent with what you have outlined above.
“While it is a closed end fund, they can issue shares if they buy more silver in advance. Most recently it was about .34 ounces per share so it trades at a slight premium at present. It went to a small discount when silver hit its spot high. When I initially purchased my current holding it was at a very slight discount last Fall, so it varies a bit. It tends to stay relatively close though as it can be arbitraged to spot by taking delivery and selling the 1000 oz bar. The spread is far less than physical though, and it is much closer to owning physical than SLV.”
According to the Sprott site, in US$ terms PSLV is currently trading at a discount of 5.45 %. Since inception (in October 2010) it has traded anywhere between a premium of 33.91 and a discount of 10.34. Am I interpreting things wrong? These figures don’t seem consistent with what you have outlined above.
Please clarify!
It can briefly trade at wider discounts or premiums depending upon how fast silver is moving and in which direction, you cannot approach this as a coin collector. It is better to buy it when it is at a discount and then sell it when it moves up and has a premium -- it gives you a small amount of intrinsic leverage. If silver trades flat, there is little change. And if COMEX fails to deliver at some future point, SLV will go to an extreme discount, while PSLV will move to an extreme premium. What is the cheapest trade cost that you can get in silver that is better than this, assuming that you are interested in trading. Take a look at Money Metals, ASEs retail about 100 and they buy is around 77 right now, that is a huge cost.
@Old_Collector said:
While it is a closed end fund, they can issue shares if they buy more silver in advance. Most recently it was about .34 ounces per share so it trades at a slight premium at present. It went to a small discount when silver hit its spot high. When I initially purchased my current holding it was at a very slight discount last Fall, so it varies a bit. It tends to stay relatively close though as it can be arbitraged to spot by taking delivery and selling the 1000 oz bar. The spread is far less than physical though, and it is much closer to owning physical than SLV.
Thanks for the PSLV tip!
sprott.com posts the Premium/Discount daily. Bought some first thing Monday morning and by weekend the discount narrowed and I was up 16.24% for the week.
Comments
Six month bump.
What are premiums now? Have been able to derive future prices based on premiums? Has buying high premium silver proven better return than low or no premium silver?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Premiums generally go up when spot goes down.
Premiums generally go down when spot goes up.
Think of a premium as the "extra" profit a seller expects. His expectations increase as demand (thus prices) increases.
However, at the end of the day gold is gold and silver is silver.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
Supply availability for silver and gold seems to be back to the normal historic levels. So no loner a shortage. Market makers are paying dealers under spot for most products. Take a look at the JM website, their buy prices are pretty far under spot. It wasn't that long ago that everything was selling for big premiums. If you believe the move up in metals will continue then premiums look like a bargain at these levels.
So we need to be careful when paying premiums as they could become discounts and there is a possibility we make nothing at all, even if spot increases?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
One pays premiums knowing they will be recovered when spot increases. . . if it increases.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
A person might also pay a pretty high premium for something that is considered a "rare" or "desirable" collectible item (coin, round, or ingot).
Premiums on such items can be many multiples of the metal content, and these premiums can go up or down in a manner that is not necessarily correlated to the change in the price of the metal.
Items with a low to moderate premium (ordinary Silver Eagles, for example) will typically have premiums that shrink when the metal price goes up and expand when the metal price goes down. In this manner, the final price of the item (which is the metal content plus premium) is less volatile than the metal price itself.
In the OP spot was 26.63 and ASE were 38.62. Yesterday spot was 32.15 and ASE 37.14.
Spot increased almost 21% while ASE declined by almost 4%. Spot appears to have been the better buy. Lower premium physical such as 100oz bars appear to have a small positive return. However, one who attempts to sell physical would most likely receive much lower prices than retail ask, thus greater negative return over last 4 years.
Over last 4 years Spot has an annual return of approx 4.82%.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Premiums are nothing more than a man-made "tariff" passed onto the sheep. No premiums in the SLV. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
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SLV has a NEGATIVE premium that only goes more negative over time.
It is the WORST form of silver to hold long-term because half a percent of it evaporates every year due to the SLV fee structure.
Most Silver Eagles are too common to ever command much of a collector premium.
Some collectible silver ingots have premiums that have increased dramatically in the last 10 years or so.
Sometimes, rather than speculating on the price of the metal, it is better to speculate on the potential increase in premium for a specific collector item.
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On the date of the OP, SLV closed at 24.57. Yesterday it closed at 29.30 for a gain of 19%. Seems it has outperformed physical silver rounds, ASEs and bars.
How much premium "evaporated"?
Tell me how it's been the worse over the last 4 years?
Can't believe someone actually "liked" your comment. Lol
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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The Original Post ("OP") was 4 years ago. That is not a long term.
Investopedia defines a "long-term" holding as 7 to 10 years, or more.
When the price of silver goes down, premiums on physical items tend to go up. This somewhat insulates against losses.
With SLV, however, the premium ALWAYS goes down, regardless of what direction the price of silver moves.
The average SLV price during the first year it was offered (2006) was about $12.50 .
The spot price of silver at that time was about the same. As of yesterday, spot silver was about $32.30 .
So SLV has underperformed spot silver by $3 over the SLV lifespan. If a person held SLV for that entire time, about 10% of their holdings of silver would have "evaporated" due to the SLV fees.
"Collector" premiums can go up or down MUCH more than the "spot" price.
For example:
In 2006, San Francisco Mint Assay Office bars from the late 1950s to mid 1960s were selling for about $600 to $800 per ingot. This 5.69-troy-oz bar sold at Heritage Auctions in 2006 for $632.50 :
https://coins.ha.com/itm/a/400-4181.s
The most recent Heritage sale of a similar bar was early this year (February 2025). The 6.91-troy-oz ingot sold for $6,600 :
https://coins.ha.com/itm/a/1381-4061.s
Neither the 2006 price nor the 2025 price are abberations. They were the normal going prices for such bars in each time frame. And although the premium above spot was very large in 2006, it increased by more than 10-fold by 2025.
Using your cherry-picked time frame, similar bars to those linked above were selling for about $4,000 to $4,500 in 2021.
This 6.02-troy-oz bar sold at a Heritage auction in 2021 for $4,080 :
https://coins.ha.com/itm//a/1334-3446.s
So that is about a 50% increase in the premium since 2021.
I would never put any of my money in SLV. What modest amount I might have I would put into some scarce and/or unusual silver items that are a lot more interesting and fun to hold in my hands.
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You just wasted an hour of time trying to find some rare bars to prove your point--a point we are not even discussing. LOL
Yeah, the heck with 4 years or That is not a long term.
Investopedia defines a "long-term" holding as 7 to 10 years, or more ----lets go 19 years. Long-term enough for ya?
The average SLV price during the first year it was offered (2006) was about $12.50 .
The spot price of silver at that time was about the same. As of yesterday, spot silver was about $32.30
The actual average was under $12, but lets do math by your numbers. 12.5 (buy price) to 29.30 (sell price) is 134%.
An ASE in 2006 was about $16 (retail buy price) and today JM bullion buy price (sell to) is 32.50 for a 103% return. Im just a redneck hillbilly but I do believe 134 is more than 103.
What modest amount I might have I would put into some scarce and/or unusual silver items that are a lot more interesting and fun to hold in my hands
You do you. Ill do me. Ok with you?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
This the "silver premium tracking thread". This is also a collecting website. So it is appropriate to discuss the relatively high premiums on numismatic silver items, especially ingots and other items that were (at one time) just a hunk of silver worth the "melt" price (or less). I think it will be interesting to continue to track the premiums on US Government Mint/Assay-Office ingots and other rare bars.
I did not mention Silver Eagles (ASEs) at all in my post. I referred to silver "spot".
Are you just a "Redneck Hillbilly" that always pays retail and sells at wholesale ?
A person can pretty easily avoid the middle man and buy/sell without the middleman spread.
Compare 2006 wholesale to 2025 wholesale, or compare 2006 retail to 2025 retail.
But comparing 2006 retail (buy) to 2025 wholesale (sell) is a statistical "damned lie" as Mark Twain would put it.
2006 ASE retail price (according to you): $16, multiplied by your SLV 134% performance, equals $37.44 .
Is the retail price of an ASE at or above $37.44 currently ?
APMEX: $37.51
eBay free-shipping lots with one Silver Eagle (genuine, not impaired, not from China): the vast majority sold for $38 or higher.
So SLV has NOT been a better performer than a Silver Eagle during the time span (2021-2015).
Realistically, the average person will probably not net the full retail price when they sell. But they can certainly find deals and not pay the full retail price when they buy.
PS:
I like researching numismatic items, including price history. It is always good to learn about such things. You should try it sometime.
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Dude...you're the one who keeps bringing up the SLV stuff. Stop with the incessant gaslighting.
You claimed i was picking a time frame when I was just going by the date of the OP. So then I proved you wrong by using your timeframe. Now you want to make up some other time frame. Maybe we should bring your quotes up everytime you accuse someone of making up some timeframe for their narrative?
And im applying real world scenarios. The average Joe buys at retail and sell at wholesale. That's the way it works. To claim otherwise is a "damned lie". Joe ain't buying rare mint assay bars or private mint ingots. He's buying common ASE, bars and rounds...or an exchange traded product.
Perhaps you would like to contribute to the thread and discuss the massive premiums paid and supposed lack of silver supply or excessive demand---whatever the narrative was--and explain how to avoid or take advantage of such a situation in the future?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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I will continue to discuss SLV whenever I think it is warranted. And that is pretty often in this forum because it is frequently brought up by other "contributors" here.
You are the one who keeps bringing up the hypothetical "average Joe" (six-pack, I assume). Do you, yourself, buy at full retail and sell at wholesale ? I didn't think so.
I used your time frame (2021 to present). I also used 2006 to present because 2006 is when SLV started. I showed that a Silver Eagle bought in 2006 has had the same return as SLV (when the buy and sell are both at the same side of the table).
Your so-called "real world scenario" does not apply to you or me, so it is irrelevant.
The normal premium for an ordinary Silver Eagle, historically, has been about $1 to $3. Premiums much higher than that are a short-term aberration that I did not participate in. Ordinary Silver Eagles are not rare enough for me to justify paying a high premium.
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Your hypothesis was proven wrong. Get over it. Unless you want to continue and be proven wrong again. Didn't Einstein say something about doing the same thing over and over again hoping for a different outcome?
You keep trying to make this a personal, you or me thing, Stop it already. Your infatuation with me is worrisome.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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You will not dictate what I write on this forum.
You can always ignore whatever I post here.
What "hypothesis" are you referring to ?
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What we saw in the last few years was more demand than supply for physical. Drove up premiums, private mints expanded capacity while demand for physical went down and spot went up. So maybe we see low premiums until we have a geopolitical crisis or more manufacturing capacity leaves the market. Same old same old, what is different this time is how much of the physical distribution and manufacturing is controlled by one big company.
as physical gold moves into tighter hands (higher prices) demand for silver bullion will increase. When you want fish but can no longer afford Chilean sea bass you learn to enjoy grouper.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
I don't own any silver ETFs, but I have occasionally in the past. I consider ETF fees to be a substitute for storage fees and/or insurance, as well as the price to pay for greater liquidity, a smaller buy/sell spread, and less time and inconvenience when buying or selling.
This used to be a very active thread when premium s were rising. Now that wholesale premiums have been negative for several months and continue to fall, I wanted to see if we can use this thread to discuss the cyclical nature of not just metal prices but also premiums. This cycle of expanding and falling premiums is very dramatic, but it's normal for precious metals.
how long has this cycle been documented?
5-6000 years in our recorded history. Millions, perhaps billions of years if we include the real world. I suspect a reset is in order so the "recorded" will soon start over again. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
I'm confused by your question are you asking for an empirical study? If it exists I'm not aware of it. And if you can find one how would you use it to improve your decision making? Please teach me I want to learn.
.> @MsMorrisine said:
The "cycle" is not confined to PMs. All assets are known to have periods of premiums and discounts.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
But that is ONLY because silver has experienced tremendous volatility to the downside and then bounced back to a level it first hit 14 years ago. No retail investor could withstand that volatility in their investment (let alone an entire portfolio) and even consider adding more at lower prices.
It's why PM's are simply not suitable for anything more than speculative dollars in a portfolio. Drawdowns and volatility are simply too high for a fiduciary or an individual investor except in small amounts.
I thought premiums had come down or even disappeared ? At least it's the same premium as 4-5 years ago but with silver at 2x the price meaning the % to the metal price is less.
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There is no such thing as a "retail investor".
They are actually "retail speculators" at best.
And "retail chumps" at worst.
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I just looked on eBay and searched for "Silver Eagle roll" (no, not the edible kind).
Actual sales for 13 October 2025, for full rolls of common-date Silver Eagles, with shipping added in, ranged from about $1,075 to $1,300 per roll of 20. The typical (average) lower-range price appears to have been about $1,140 ($57 per coin).
So people are paying about $57 each in quantity.
Of course, sellers have to pay shipping and eBay fees out of that. So the sellers are netting less than "spot", but not a lot less.
I personally would use a lower-cost venue to buy and sell (such as a coin show).
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ASE premiums (using the cheapest bullion dealer I can find) are currently 14% with spot at $48.95.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Letz talk about paying premiums on common stuff.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Look what happened with the recent drop in the "paper" price for silver.
Silver Eagles are now selling at a +$14 premium to "spot".
Below is a current APMEX screen shot. Actual sales of Silver Eagle rolls on eBay are at similar prices.
This confirms my previous statements that SLV and other paper derivatives take the full hit on a drop in the silver "spot" price, while actual (physical) coins do not drop as much (thus insulating the holder somewhat from the drop).
It is just the usual case where holders of physical silver do not want to sell at the lower price.
While click-addict "paper" silver speculators get played on their stop-loss orders.
The last 6-9 months have only demonstrated that Blitz's strategy on paper silver has been correct. But someone who lacks reason and logic and has a poor understanding of markets may disagree.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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Gambling is not a strategy.
The last month demonstrates that paper speculating does not really work out so well for click-addicts.
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Trading silver and natural gas over the COMEX has a good nickname for a reason: the widow maker.
While I own a large amount of silver that I've had for many decades, since I got most of it at the bank in rolls at face and then over the years more with early ASEs, the spread is too wide for trading it actively.
For longer term trading I use PSLV, which is superior to SLV in that PSLV is 100% backed by actual silver and you can take delivery if you have enough shares for a 1000oz bar. SLV is not fully backed by silver and uses both futures and options, so in a real market event it will have an extreme discount or simply fail. It is okay for very short term trades (long or short) using SLV options for their liquidity if you spend enough for high quality information.
But you need to isolate that completely from your collecting side, if like me, you are also a collector. My latest big prize was finding a 1917 DDO in MS64 at HA, so now I am down to one in my MS wheat set: of course it's the 1922 FS-401 that is currently just an XF40. But enough about collecting. I do expect a bit more of a bounce in silver but it has a significant chance in moving quite a bit lower if the COMEX can deliver March physical demand and things can calm down.
Speak for yourself. RGDS!
P.S. Who will buy ye gutter? THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
PSLV is a closed end mutual fund which can trade at a discount or premium to net asset value.
Currently it trades at Bid $25.06, Ask $25.18. MONEX's silver spot is $77.37. How do the two relate to each other?
Is PSLV currently trading at a discount or a premium? PSLV was $38.13 when silver spot was at it's high of $117.66.
While it is a closed end fund, they can issue shares if they buy more silver in advance. Most recently it was about .34 ounces per share so it trades at a slight premium at present. It went to a small discount when silver hit its spot high. When I initially purchased my current holding it was at a very slight discount last Fall, so it varies a bit. It tends to stay relatively close though as it can be arbitraged to spot by taking delivery and selling the 1000 oz bar. The spread is far less than physical though, and it is much closer to owning physical than SLV.
I prefer the SLV. It's the 800lb gorilla and the most liquid gutter on planet earth. RGDS!
Edit: Disclaimer, not endorsing at the moment. Need to wait for the coming collapse before buying back in. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
@Old_Collector said:
“While it is a closed end fund, they can issue shares if they buy more silver in advance. Most recently it was about .34 ounces per share so it trades at a slight premium at present. It went to a small discount when silver hit its spot high. When I initially purchased my current holding it was at a very slight discount last Fall, so it varies a bit. It tends to stay relatively close though as it can be arbitraged to spot by taking delivery and selling the 1000 oz bar. The spread is far less than physical though, and it is much closer to owning physical than SLV.”
According to the Sprott site, in US$ terms PSLV is currently trading at a discount of 5.45 %. Since inception (in October 2010) it has traded anywhere between a premium of 33.91 and a discount of 10.34. Am I interpreting things wrong? These figures don’t seem consistent with what you have outlined above.
Please clarify!
It can briefly trade at wider discounts or premiums depending upon how fast silver is moving and in which direction, you cannot approach this as a coin collector. It is better to buy it when it is at a discount and then sell it when it moves up and has a premium -- it gives you a small amount of intrinsic leverage. If silver trades flat, there is little change. And if COMEX fails to deliver at some future point, SLV will go to an extreme discount, while PSLV will move to an extreme premium. What is the cheapest trade cost that you can get in silver that is better than this, assuming that you are interested in trading. Take a look at Money Metals, ASEs retail about 100 and they buy is around 77 right now, that is a huge cost.
Thanks for the PSLV tip!
sprott.com posts the Premium/Discount daily. Bought some first thing Monday morning and by weekend the discount narrowed and I was up 16.24% for the week.