What are premiums now? Have been able to derive future prices based on premiums? Has buying high premium silver proven better return than low or no premium silver?
Premiums generally go up when spot goes down.
Premiums generally go down when spot goes up.
Think of a premium as the "extra" profit a seller expects. His expectations increase as demand (thus prices) increases.
However, at the end of the day gold is gold and silver is silver.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Supply availability for silver and gold seems to be back to the normal historic levels. So no loner a shortage. Market makers are paying dealers under spot for most products. Take a look at the JM website, their buy prices are pretty far under spot. It wasn't that long ago that everything was selling for big premiums. If you believe the move up in metals will continue then premiums look like a bargain at these levels.
@tyler267 said:
Take a look at the JM website, their buy prices are pretty far under spot. It wasn't that long ago that everything was selling for big premiums.
So we need to be careful when paying premiums as they could become discounts and there is a possibility we make nothing at all, even if spot increases?
A person might also pay a pretty high premium for something that is considered a "rare" or "desirable" collectible item (coin, round, or ingot).
Premiums on such items can be many multiples of the metal content, and these premiums can go up or down in a manner that is not necessarily correlated to the change in the price of the metal.
Items with a low to moderate premium (ordinary Silver Eagles, for example) will typically have premiums that shrink when the metal price goes up and expand when the metal price goes down. In this manner, the final price of the item (which is the metal content plus premium) is less volatile than the metal price itself.
@derryb said:
One pays premiums knowing they will be recovered when spot increases. . . if it increases.
In the OP spot was 26.63 and ASE were 38.62. Yesterday spot was 32.15 and ASE 37.14.
Spot increased almost 21% while ASE declined by almost 4%. Spot appears to have been the better buy. Lower premium physical such as 100oz bars appear to have a small positive return. However, one who attempts to sell physical would most likely receive much lower prices than retail ask, thus greater negative return over last 4 years.
Over last 4 years Spot has an annual return of approx 4.82%.
@blitzdude said:
Premiums are nothing more than a man-made "tariff" passed onto the sheep. No premiums in the SLV. RGDS!
.
SLV has a NEGATIVE premium that only goes more negative over time.
It is the WORST form of silver to hold long-term because half a percent of it evaporates every year due to the SLV fee structure.
Most Silver Eagles are too common to ever command much of a collector premium.
Some collectible silver ingots have premiums that have increased dramatically in the last 10 years or so.
Sometimes, rather than speculating on the price of the metal, it is better to speculate on the potential increase in premium for a specific collector item.
@blitzdude said:
Premiums are nothing more than a man-made "tariff" passed onto the sheep. No premiums in the SLV. RGDS!
.
SLV has a NEGATIVE premium that only goes more negative over time.
It is the WORST form of silver to hold long-term because half a percent of it evaporates every year due to the SLV fee structure.
On the date of the OP, SLV closed at 24.57. Yesterday it closed at 29.30 for a gain of 19%. Seems it has outperformed physical silver rounds, ASEs and bars.
How much premium "evaporated"?
Tell me how it's been the worse over the last 4 years?
Can't believe someone actually "liked" your comment. Lol
@blitzdude said:
Premiums are nothing more than a man-made "tariff" passed onto the sheep. No premiums in the SLV. RGDS!
.
SLV has a NEGATIVE premium that only goes more negative over time.
It is the WORST form of silver to hold long-term because half a percent of it evaporates every year due to the SLV fee structure.
On the date of the OP, SLV closed at 24.57. Yesterday it closed at 29.30 for a gain of 19%. Seems it has outperformed physical silver rounds, ASEs and bars.
How much premium "evaporated"?
Tell me how it's been the worse over the last 4 years?
Can't believe someone actually "liked" your comment. Lol
.
The Original Post ("OP") was 4 years ago. That is not a long term.
Investopedia defines a "long-term" holding as 7 to 10 years, or more.
When the price of silver goes down, premiums on physical items tend to go up. This somewhat insulates against losses.
With SLV, however, the premium ALWAYS goes down, regardless of what direction the price of silver moves.
The average SLV price during the first year it was offered (2006) was about $12.50 .
The spot price of silver at that time was about the same. As of yesterday, spot silver was about $32.30 .
So SLV has underperformed spot silver by $3 over the SLV lifespan. If a person held SLV for that entire time, about 10% of their holdings of silver would have "evaporated" due to the SLV fees.
"Collector" premiums can go up or down MUCH more than the "spot" price.
For example:
In 2006, San Francisco Mint Assay Office bars from the late 1950s to mid 1960s were selling for about $600 to $800 per ingot. This 5.69-troy-oz bar sold at Heritage Auctions in 2006 for $632.50 : https://coins.ha.com/itm/a/400-4181.s
The most recent Heritage sale of a similar bar was early this year (February 2025). The 6.91-troy-oz ingot sold for $6,600 : https://coins.ha.com/itm/a/1381-4061.s
Neither the 2006 price nor the 2025 price are abberations. They were the normal going prices for such bars in each time frame. And although the premium above spot was very large in 2006, it increased by more than 10-fold by 2025.
Using your cherry-picked time frame, similar bars to those linked above were selling for about $4,000 to $4,500 in 2021.
This 6.02-troy-oz bar sold at a Heritage auction in 2021 for $4,080 : https://coins.ha.com/itm//a/1334-3446.s
So that is about a 50% increase in the premium since 2021.
I would never put any of my money in SLV. What modest amount I might have I would put into some scarce and/or unusual silver items that are a lot more interesting and fun to hold in my hands.
You just wasted an hour of time trying to find some rare bars to prove your point--a point we are not even discussing. LOL
Yeah, the heck with 4 years or That is not a long term.
Investopedia defines a "long-term" holding as 7 to 10 years, or more ----lets go 19 years. Long-term enough for ya?
The average SLV price during the first year it was offered (2006) was about $12.50 .
The spot price of silver at that time was about the same. As of yesterday, spot silver was about $32.30
The actual average was under $12, but lets do math by your numbers. 12.5 (buy price) to 29.30 (sell price) is 134%.
An ASE in 2006 was about $16 (retail buy price) and today JM bullion buy price (sell to) is 32.50 for a 103% return. Im just a redneck hillbilly but I do believe 134 is more than 103.
What modest amount I might have I would put into some scarce and/or unusual silver items that are a lot more interesting and fun to hold in my hands
@RedneckHB said:
You just wasted an hour of time trying to find some rare bars to prove your point--a point we are not even discussing. LOL
Yeah, the heck with 4 years or That is not a long term.
Investopedia defines a "long-term" holding as 7 to 10 years, or more ----lets go 19 years. Long-term enough for ya?
The average SLV price during the first year it was offered (2006) was about $12.50 .
The spot price of silver at that time was about the same. As of yesterday, spot silver was about $32.30
The actual average was under $12, but lets do math by your numbers. 12.5 (buy price) to 29.30 (sell price) is 134%.
An ASE in 2006 was about $16 (retail buy price) and today JM bullion buy price (sell to) is 32.50 for a 103% return. Im just a redneck hillbilly but I do believe 134 is more than 103.
What modest amount I might have I would put into some scarce and/or unusual silver items that are a lot more interesting and fun to hold in my hands
You do you. Ill do me. Ok with you?
This the "silver premium tracking thread". This is also a collecting website. So it is appropriate to discuss the relatively high premiums on numismatic silver items, especially ingots and other items that were (at one time) just a hunk of silver worth the "melt" price (or less). I think it will be interesting to continue to track the premiums on US Government Mint/Assay-Office ingots and other rare bars.
I did not mention Silver Eagles (ASEs) at all in my post. I referred to silver "spot".
Are you just a "Redneck Hillbilly" that always pays retail and sells at wholesale ?
A person can pretty easily avoid the middle man and buy/sell without the middleman spread.
Compare 2006 wholesale to 2025 wholesale, or compare 2006 retail to 2025 retail.
But comparing 2006 retail (buy) to 2025 wholesale (sell) is a statistical "damned lie" as Mark Twain would put it.
2006 ASE retail price (according to you): $16, multiplied by your SLV 134% performance, equals $37.44 .
Is the retail price of an ASE at or above $37.44 currently ?
APMEX: $37.51
eBay free-shipping lots with one Silver Eagle (genuine, not impaired, not from China): the vast majority sold for $38 or higher.
So SLV has NOT been a better performer than a Silver Eagle during the time span (2021-2015).
Realistically, the average person will probably not net the full retail price when they sell. But they can certainly find deals and not pay the full retail price when they buy.
PS:
I like researching numismatic items, including price history. It is always good to learn about such things. You should try it sometime.
Dude...you're the one who keeps bringing up the SLV stuff. Stop with the incessant gaslighting.
You claimed i was picking a time frame when I was just going by the date of the OP. So then I proved you wrong by using your timeframe. Now you want to make up some other time frame. Maybe we should bring your quotes up everytime you accuse someone of making up some timeframe for their narrative?
And im applying real world scenarios. The average Joe buys at retail and sell at wholesale. That's the way it works. To claim otherwise is a "damned lie". Joe ain't buying rare mint assay bars or private mint ingots. He's buying common ASE, bars and rounds...or an exchange traded product.
Perhaps you would like to contribute to the thread and discuss the massive premiums paid and supposed lack of silver supply or excessive demand---whatever the narrative was--and explain how to avoid or take advantage of such a situation in the future?
@RedneckHB said:
Dude...you're the one who keeps bringing up the SLV stuff. Stop with the incessant gaslighting.
You claimed i was picking a time frame when I was just going by the date of the OP. So then I proved you wrong by using your timeframe. Now you want to make up some other time frame. Maybe we should bring your quotes up everytime you accuse someone of making up some timeframe for their narrative?
And im applying real world scenarios. The average Joe buys at retail and sell at wholesale. That's the way it works. To claim otherwise is a "damned lie". Joe ain't buying rare mint assay bars or private mint ingots. He's buying common ASE, bars and rounds...or an exchange traded product.
Perhaps you would like to contribute to the thread and discuss the massive premiums paid and supposed lack of silver supply or excessive demand---whatever the narrative was--and explain how to avoid or take advantage of such a situation in the future?
.
I will continue to discuss SLV whenever I think it is warranted. And that is pretty often in this forum because it is frequently brought up by other "contributors" here.
You are the one who keeps bringing up the hypothetical "average Joe" (six-pack, I assume). Do you, yourself, buy at full retail and sell at wholesale ? I didn't think so.
I used your time frame (2021 to present). I also used 2006 to present because 2006 is when SLV started. I showed that a Silver Eagle bought in 2006 has had the same return as SLV (when the buy and sell are both at the same side of the table).
Your so-called "real world scenario" does not apply to you or me, so it is irrelevant.
The normal premium for an ordinary Silver Eagle, historically, has been about $1 to $3. Premiums much higher than that are a short-term aberration that I did not participate in. Ordinary Silver Eagles are not rare enough for me to justify paying a high premium.
Your hypothesis was proven wrong. Get over it. Unless you want to continue and be proven wrong again. Didn't Einstein say something about doing the same thing over and over again hoping for a different outcome?
You keep trying to make this a personal, you or me thing, Stop it already. Your infatuation with me is worrisome.
@RedneckHB said:
Your hypothesis was proven wrong. Get over it. Unless you want to continue and be proven wrong again. Didn't Einstein say something about doing the same thing over and over again hoping for a different outcome?
You keep trying to make this a personal, you or me thing, Stop it already. Your infatuation with me is worrisome.
.
You will not dictate what I write on this forum.
You can always ignore whatever I post here.
What we saw in the last few years was more demand than supply for physical. Drove up premiums, private mints expanded capacity while demand for physical went down and spot went up. So maybe we see low premiums until we have a geopolitical crisis or more manufacturing capacity leaves the market. Same old same old, what is different this time is how much of the physical distribution and manufacturing is controlled by one big company.
as physical gold moves into tighter hands (higher prices) demand for silver bullion will increase. When you want fish but can no longer afford Chilean sea bass you learn to enjoy grouper.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
I don't own any silver ETFs, but I have occasionally in the past. I consider ETF fees to be a substitute for storage fees and/or insurance, as well as the price to pay for greater liquidity, a smaller buy/sell spread, and less time and inconvenience when buying or selling.
Comments
Six month bump.
What are premiums now? Have been able to derive future prices based on premiums? Has buying high premium silver proven better return than low or no premium silver?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Premiums generally go up when spot goes down.
Premiums generally go down when spot goes up.
Think of a premium as the "extra" profit a seller expects. His expectations increase as demand (thus prices) increases.
However, at the end of the day gold is gold and silver is silver.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Supply availability for silver and gold seems to be back to the normal historic levels. So no loner a shortage. Market makers are paying dealers under spot for most products. Take a look at the JM website, their buy prices are pretty far under spot. It wasn't that long ago that everything was selling for big premiums. If you believe the move up in metals will continue then premiums look like a bargain at these levels.
So we need to be careful when paying premiums as they could become discounts and there is a possibility we make nothing at all, even if spot increases?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
One pays premiums knowing they will be recovered when spot increases. . . if it increases.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
A person might also pay a pretty high premium for something that is considered a "rare" or "desirable" collectible item (coin, round, or ingot).
Premiums on such items can be many multiples of the metal content, and these premiums can go up or down in a manner that is not necessarily correlated to the change in the price of the metal.
Items with a low to moderate premium (ordinary Silver Eagles, for example) will typically have premiums that shrink when the metal price goes up and expand when the metal price goes down. In this manner, the final price of the item (which is the metal content plus premium) is less volatile than the metal price itself.
In the OP spot was 26.63 and ASE were 38.62. Yesterday spot was 32.15 and ASE 37.14.
Spot increased almost 21% while ASE declined by almost 4%. Spot appears to have been the better buy. Lower premium physical such as 100oz bars appear to have a small positive return. However, one who attempts to sell physical would most likely receive much lower prices than retail ask, thus greater negative return over last 4 years.
Over last 4 years Spot has an annual return of approx 4.82%.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Premiums are nothing more than a man-made "tariff" passed onto the sheep. No premiums in the SLV. RGDS!
.
SLV has a NEGATIVE premium that only goes more negative over time.
It is the WORST form of silver to hold long-term because half a percent of it evaporates every year due to the SLV fee structure.
Most Silver Eagles are too common to ever command much of a collector premium.
Some collectible silver ingots have premiums that have increased dramatically in the last 10 years or so.
Sometimes, rather than speculating on the price of the metal, it is better to speculate on the potential increase in premium for a specific collector item.
.
On the date of the OP, SLV closed at 24.57. Yesterday it closed at 29.30 for a gain of 19%. Seems it has outperformed physical silver rounds, ASEs and bars.
How much premium "evaporated"?
Tell me how it's been the worse over the last 4 years?
Can't believe someone actually "liked" your comment. Lol
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
The Original Post ("OP") was 4 years ago. That is not a long term.
Investopedia defines a "long-term" holding as 7 to 10 years, or more.
When the price of silver goes down, premiums on physical items tend to go up. This somewhat insulates against losses.
With SLV, however, the premium ALWAYS goes down, regardless of what direction the price of silver moves.
The average SLV price during the first year it was offered (2006) was about $12.50 .
The spot price of silver at that time was about the same. As of yesterday, spot silver was about $32.30 .
So SLV has underperformed spot silver by $3 over the SLV lifespan. If a person held SLV for that entire time, about 10% of their holdings of silver would have "evaporated" due to the SLV fees.
"Collector" premiums can go up or down MUCH more than the "spot" price.
For example:
In 2006, San Francisco Mint Assay Office bars from the late 1950s to mid 1960s were selling for about $600 to $800 per ingot. This 5.69-troy-oz bar sold at Heritage Auctions in 2006 for $632.50 :
https://coins.ha.com/itm/a/400-4181.s
The most recent Heritage sale of a similar bar was early this year (February 2025). The 6.91-troy-oz ingot sold for $6,600 :
https://coins.ha.com/itm/a/1381-4061.s
Neither the 2006 price nor the 2025 price are abberations. They were the normal going prices for such bars in each time frame. And although the premium above spot was very large in 2006, it increased by more than 10-fold by 2025.
Using your cherry-picked time frame, similar bars to those linked above were selling for about $4,000 to $4,500 in 2021.
This 6.02-troy-oz bar sold at a Heritage auction in 2021 for $4,080 :
https://coins.ha.com/itm//a/1334-3446.s
So that is about a 50% increase in the premium since 2021.
I would never put any of my money in SLV. What modest amount I might have I would put into some scarce and/or unusual silver items that are a lot more interesting and fun to hold in my hands.
.
You just wasted an hour of time trying to find some rare bars to prove your point--a point we are not even discussing. LOL
Yeah, the heck with 4 years or That is not a long term.
Investopedia defines a "long-term" holding as 7 to 10 years, or more ----lets go 19 years. Long-term enough for ya?
The average SLV price during the first year it was offered (2006) was about $12.50 .
The spot price of silver at that time was about the same. As of yesterday, spot silver was about $32.30
The actual average was under $12, but lets do math by your numbers. 12.5 (buy price) to 29.30 (sell price) is 134%.
An ASE in 2006 was about $16 (retail buy price) and today JM bullion buy price (sell to) is 32.50 for a 103% return. Im just a redneck hillbilly but I do believe 134 is more than 103.
What modest amount I might have I would put into some scarce and/or unusual silver items that are a lot more interesting and fun to hold in my hands
You do you. Ill do me. Ok with you?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
This the "silver premium tracking thread". This is also a collecting website. So it is appropriate to discuss the relatively high premiums on numismatic silver items, especially ingots and other items that were (at one time) just a hunk of silver worth the "melt" price (or less). I think it will be interesting to continue to track the premiums on US Government Mint/Assay-Office ingots and other rare bars.
I did not mention Silver Eagles (ASEs) at all in my post. I referred to silver "spot".
Are you just a "Redneck Hillbilly" that always pays retail and sells at wholesale ?
A person can pretty easily avoid the middle man and buy/sell without the middleman spread.
Compare 2006 wholesale to 2025 wholesale, or compare 2006 retail to 2025 retail.
But comparing 2006 retail (buy) to 2025 wholesale (sell) is a statistical "damned lie" as Mark Twain would put it.
2006 ASE retail price (according to you): $16, multiplied by your SLV 134% performance, equals $37.44 .
Is the retail price of an ASE at or above $37.44 currently ?
APMEX: $37.51
eBay free-shipping lots with one Silver Eagle (genuine, not impaired, not from China): the vast majority sold for $38 or higher.
So SLV has NOT been a better performer than a Silver Eagle during the time span (2021-2015).
Realistically, the average person will probably not net the full retail price when they sell. But they can certainly find deals and not pay the full retail price when they buy.
PS:
I like researching numismatic items, including price history. It is always good to learn about such things. You should try it sometime.
.
Dude...you're the one who keeps bringing up the SLV stuff. Stop with the incessant gaslighting.
You claimed i was picking a time frame when I was just going by the date of the OP. So then I proved you wrong by using your timeframe. Now you want to make up some other time frame. Maybe we should bring your quotes up everytime you accuse someone of making up some timeframe for their narrative?
And im applying real world scenarios. The average Joe buys at retail and sell at wholesale. That's the way it works. To claim otherwise is a "damned lie". Joe ain't buying rare mint assay bars or private mint ingots. He's buying common ASE, bars and rounds...or an exchange traded product.
Perhaps you would like to contribute to the thread and discuss the massive premiums paid and supposed lack of silver supply or excessive demand---whatever the narrative was--and explain how to avoid or take advantage of such a situation in the future?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
I will continue to discuss SLV whenever I think it is warranted. And that is pretty often in this forum because it is frequently brought up by other "contributors" here.
You are the one who keeps bringing up the hypothetical "average Joe" (six-pack, I assume). Do you, yourself, buy at full retail and sell at wholesale ? I didn't think so.
I used your time frame (2021 to present). I also used 2006 to present because 2006 is when SLV started. I showed that a Silver Eagle bought in 2006 has had the same return as SLV (when the buy and sell are both at the same side of the table).
Your so-called "real world scenario" does not apply to you or me, so it is irrelevant.
The normal premium for an ordinary Silver Eagle, historically, has been about $1 to $3. Premiums much higher than that are a short-term aberration that I did not participate in. Ordinary Silver Eagles are not rare enough for me to justify paying a high premium.
.
Your hypothesis was proven wrong. Get over it. Unless you want to continue and be proven wrong again. Didn't Einstein say something about doing the same thing over and over again hoping for a different outcome?
You keep trying to make this a personal, you or me thing, Stop it already. Your infatuation with me is worrisome.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
You will not dictate what I write on this forum.
You can always ignore whatever I post here.
What "hypothesis" are you referring to ?
.
What we saw in the last few years was more demand than supply for physical. Drove up premiums, private mints expanded capacity while demand for physical went down and spot went up. So maybe we see low premiums until we have a geopolitical crisis or more manufacturing capacity leaves the market. Same old same old, what is different this time is how much of the physical distribution and manufacturing is controlled by one big company.
as physical gold moves into tighter hands (higher prices) demand for silver bullion will increase. When you want fish but can no longer afford Chilean sea bass you learn to enjoy grouper.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
I don't own any silver ETFs, but I have occasionally in the past. I consider ETF fees to be a substitute for storage fees and/or insurance, as well as the price to pay for greater liquidity, a smaller buy/sell spread, and less time and inconvenience when buying or selling.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
