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Silver spot vs premium tracking thread

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  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:
    ..... Just go to a coin show and shop around a little.

    And, what is/are the costs and risks associated with that? Please try to quantify. Fuel costs, tolls, entrance fees, case to cart around 35 pounds of silver. 8 hours.of ones time. That's going to add up to more than 0.50% and we haven't even considered the spread.

    We have all been to coins shows and we've all been quoted "artificially low" prices. Many times we even been told "not interested". That's a bid of $0.

    Bit, we do have a major show coming up in a few weeks. Maybe we can test your suggestion and collect some data. Wouldn't that be interesting.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,525 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @dcarr said:
    ..... Just go to a coin show and shop around a little.

    And, what is/are the costs and risks associated with that? Please try to quantify. Fuel costs, tolls, entrance fees, case to cart around 35 pounds of silver. 8 hours.of ones time. That's going to add up to more than 0.50% and we haven't even considered the spread.

    We have all been to coins shows and we've all been quoted "artificially low" prices. Many times we even been told "not interested". That's a bid of $0.

    Bit, we do have a major show coming up in a few weeks. Maybe we can test your suggestion and collect some data. Wouldn't that be interesting.

    If you offer Silver Eagles to a dealer that specializes in early copper (like Large Cents), you probably won't get an offer.
    But most major coin shows have at least a few bullion dealers. And in most cases anyone can become a "dealer" and get their own table at a coin show.

    As for the time spent at a coin show, if you like coins it isn't "work", but rather fun. Coin shows also have security. Just be diligent and don't stop for lunch on the way home with valuables left in your car.

    If you only trade "paper" silver there is absolutely nothing interesting about that (unlike historic coins). And there are still expenses and risks. You have to have a computer and pay for internet service. Your account could get hacked and you could loose it all.

  • RedSealsRedSeals Posts: 278 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    @dcarr said:

    @RedSeals said:
    For 400 backdate American Silver Eagles fresh in tubes, local dealers paying spot to $2/over (were at $3-$6 last couple years)- APMEX quoted spot...

    Did you ask what those dealers were selling them for, and how many did they have available ?

    Whenever I encountered someone offering an abnormally low buy price I would ask what would they sell it for.
    And the answer was invariably that they didn't have any available.

    Today they said they would let me beat them up to $27.50 on 400 backdate ASE fresh in tubes. Their sell price is $36 and they have "some"

    I have no dog in this fight other than Id like to sell some ASEs - but two things are very evident - retailers (online and B&M) are gouging everywhere and there seem to be more sellers than buyers...I've listed for VERY reasonable premiums between the spread on multiple forums and no bites at all. I just don't think people are buying right now...but this is all anecdotal...

    Successful BST Transactions with: PerryHall, MrSlider, Cent1225, SurfinxHI, Blu62vette, robkool, gowithmygut, coinlieutenant, Downtown1974, MilesWaits, Shrub68, justindan

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,525 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 20, 2022 10:47AM

    @RedSeals said:

    @dcarr said:

    @dcarr said:

    @RedSeals said:
    For 400 backdate American Silver Eagles fresh in tubes, local dealers paying spot to $2/over (were at $3-$6 last couple years)- APMEX quoted spot...

    Did you ask what those dealers were selling them for, and how many did they have available ?

    Whenever I encountered someone offering an abnormally low buy price I would ask what would they sell it for.
    And the answer was invariably that they didn't have any available.

    Today they said they would let me beat them up to $27.50 on 400 backdate ASE fresh in tubes. Their sell price is $36 and they have "some"

    I have no dog in this fight other than Id like to sell some ASEs - but two things are very evident - retailers (online and B&M) are gouging everywhere and there seem to be more sellers than buyers...I've listed for VERY reasonable premiums between the spread on multiple forums and no bites at all. I just don't think people are buying right now...but this is all anecdotal...

    $27.50 to $36.00 is a wide spread. I would go elsewhere. What is your selling price on Silver Eagles ?

    A current search of eBay shows that random-year rolls of Silver Eagles are selling consistently at $670 to $700 (auction format with free shipping). Of course, those sellers have to pay shipping costs and eBay fees. But they still net $600+ a roll ($30+ a coin).

    An in-person venue with lower transaction costs (such as a coin show) might be the way to go.

    APMEX and the like can probably sell for a higher price than other sellers because they are well-known and have an established website and record of delivering the product. Potential buyers are wary of scams and lesser-known sellers.

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,525 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said (14 December 2022):

    Some here will lose their minds once reality sinks in and their artificial premiums are gone. My paper gutter continues to rise, the physical gutter not so much. You could see it coming 1000 miles away. Childs play. LOL THKS!

    And in the thread "50 basis points is a Pivot":

    @blitzdude said (16 December 2022):

    It's going to be another go nowhere year for those hoarding the gutter. No doubt. RGDS!

    So, according to you, your paper silver "continues to rise", but silver will "go nowhere" for a year.
    Which is it, rise or go nowhere ?
    If it is going nowhere, why do you even have a position in silver ?

    It is apparent that you just want to belittle anyone that has physical silver.
    Have you nothing better to do ?

    PS:
    At the time of your 16 December "going nowhere" post, spot silver was $23.21. Two trading days later, it is (as of this moment) $24.21, gain of over 4%. The contrarian indicator strikes again !

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,967 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @RedSeals said:

    @dcarr said:

    @dcarr said:

    @RedSeals said:
    For 400 backdate American Silver Eagles fresh in tubes, local dealers paying spot to $2/over (were at $3-$6 last couple years)- APMEX quoted spot...

    Did you ask what those dealers were selling them for, and how many did they have available ?

    Whenever I encountered someone offering an abnormally low buy price I would ask what would they sell it for.
    And the answer was invariably that they didn't have any available.

    Today they said they would let me beat them up to $27.50 on 400 backdate ASE fresh in tubes. Their sell price is $36 and they have "some"

    I have no dog in this fight other than Id like to sell some ASEs - but two things are very evident - retailers (online and B&M) are gouging everywhere and there seem to be more sellers than buyers...I've listed for VERY reasonable premiums between the spread on multiple forums and no bites at all. I just don't think people are buying right now...but this is all anecdotal...

    Welcome to the gutter. Good luck, hope you eventually realize a fair deal but I wouldn't be holding me breath. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,967 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    @blitzdude said (14 December 2022):

    Some here will lose their minds once reality sinks in and their artificial premiums are gone. My paper gutter continues to rise, the physical gutter not so much. You could see it coming 1000 miles away. Childs play. LOL THKS!

    And in the thread "50 basis points is a Pivot":

    @blitzdude said (16 December 2022):

    It's going to be another go nowhere year for those hoarding the gutter. No doubt. RGDS!

    So, according to you, your paper silver "continues to rise", but silver will "go nowhere" for a year.
    Which is it, rise or go nowhere ?
    If it is going nowhere, why do you even have a position in silver ?

    It is apparent that you just want to belittle anyone that has physical silver.
    Have you nothing better to do ?

    PS:
    At the time of your 16 December "going nowhere" post, spot silver was $23.21. Two trading days later, it is (as of this moment) $24.21, gain of over 4%. The contrarian indicator strikes again !

    It means my paper profits have rose while your physical gutter premiums have eroded. Come on man, it's not rocket science.

    PS: You were pumping physical gutter 11 years ago when it was $40+ talk about a contrarian indicator. LOL THKS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,948 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    @dcarr said:

    @blitzdude said (14 December 2022):

    Some here will lose their minds once reality sinks in and their artificial premiums are gone. My paper gutter continues to rise, the physical gutter not so much. You could see it coming 1000 miles away. Childs play. LOL THKS!

    And in the thread "50 basis points is a Pivot":

    @blitzdude said (16 December 2022):

    It's going to be another go nowhere year for those hoarding the gutter. No doubt. RGDS!

    So, according to you, your paper silver "continues to rise", but silver will "go nowhere" for a year.
    Which is it, rise or go nowhere ?
    If it is going nowhere, why do you even have a position in silver ?

    It is apparent that you just want to belittle anyone that has physical silver.
    Have you nothing better to do ?

    PS:
    At the time of your 16 December "going nowhere" post, spot silver was $23.21. Two trading days later, it is (as of this moment) $24.21, gain of over 4%. The contrarian indicator strikes again !

    It means my paper profits have rose while your physical gutter premiums have eroded. Come on man, it's not rocket science.

    Reality, once again, appears to contradict what you say:

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • tyler267tyler267 Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 21, 2022 9:22AM

    Wholesale spreads don't make much sense right now. Buy price on sealed boxes ASE +3.00 sell +10.50, Buy price on Silver Maples +1.75 sell price +3.00. Why would anyone buy Silver Eagles over Silver Maples? Strange

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,525 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    @dcarr said:

    @blitzdude said (14 December 2022):

    Some here will lose their minds once reality sinks in and their artificial premiums are gone. My paper gutter continues to rise, the physical gutter not so much. You could see it coming 1000 miles away. Childs play. LOL THKS!

    And in the thread "50 basis points is a Pivot":

    @blitzdude said (16 December 2022):

    It's going to be another go nowhere year for those hoarding the gutter. No doubt. RGDS!

    So, according to you, your paper silver "continues to rise", but silver will "go nowhere" for a year.
    Which is it, rise or go nowhere ?
    If it is going nowhere, why do you even have a position in silver ?

    It is apparent that you just want to belittle anyone that has physical silver.
    Have you nothing better to do ?

    PS:
    At the time of your 16 December "going nowhere" post, spot silver was $23.21. Two trading days later, it is (as of this moment) $24.21, gain of over 4%. The contrarian indicator strikes again !

    It means my paper profits have rose while your physical gutter premiums have eroded. Come on man, it's not rocket science.

    PS: You were pumping physical gutter 11 years ago when it was $40+ talk about a contrarian indicator. LOL THKS!

    .

    Perhaps you could explain why you have have a long position in silver when you think it is "going nowhere" for the next year.

    .

    PS:
    You joined this forum 8 years ago. Did you really go back and look at posts 3 years before that ? If you did, post the link to one here.

    I've minted silver pieces every year since 2007. The mintages are low and they are priced as collector's items and not as bullion. Most re-sell for more than the issue price today, even those that I produced during the time that silver was above $40.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 24, 2022 7:56AM

    @dcarr said:
    If you only trade "paper" silver there is absolutely nothing interesting about that (unlike historic coins). And there are still expenses and risks. You have to have a computer and pay for internet service. Your account could get hacked and you could loose it all.

    Don't know about you, but making money is pretty darn interesting to me.

    We ain't talking about crypto here, so you won't lose it, even if hacked.

    BTW--some historic coins have had all of the interesting stamped right out of them.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    So....in Oct spot could be bought for 17 and sold this week for 22 for a 25-30% gain.

    In Oct an ASE could be bought for 36 and sold for....???? $30....maybe for a loss of 20% or more (according to some anecdotal evidence).

    How does this physical is superior narrative work again?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,525 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 25, 2022 12:07AM

    @cohodk said:

    @dcarr said:
    If you only trade "paper" silver there is absolutely nothing interesting about that (unlike historic coins). And there are still expenses and risks. You have to have a computer and pay for internet service. Your account could get hacked and you could loose it all.

    Don't know about you, but making money is pretty darn interesting to me.

    We ain't talking about crypto here, so you won't lose it, even if hacked.

    BTW--some historic coins have had all of the interesting stamped right out of them.

    So you think nobody has ever lost funds due to unauthorized withdrawals from their bank account or brokerage account ?

    Compared to actual silver coins and bars, the paper version of silver is literally dull.
    On average, a frequent trader is just as likely to lose with SLV as they are to gain with it.
    This is because it is a zero-sum trading game (actually negative-sum when the yearly 0.5% fee is included).

    SLV has not been independently audited regarding their physical silver holdings.
    And the process to actually withdraw physical silver from SLV has significant barriers. First, you have to be an "Authorized Participant", and the smallest batch that you can supposedly withdraw is over 40,000 troy ounces. These "Authorized Participants" are limited to a few large financial organizations. Individual traders are excluded.

    Here are two quotes from the SLV prospectus:

    “Although the [SLV] Shares are not the exact equivalent of an investment in silver, they provide investors with an alternative that allows a level of participation in the silver market through the securities market.”

    “The Custodian is responsible for safekeeping the Trust's silver. ... Because the holders of Shares are not parties to the Custodian Agreement, their claims against the Custodian may be limited.”

    So no matter how much you tout SLV or other paper versions of silver, I'm not buying it. The average "investor" can't get ANY actual silver from SLV. I do not recommend that anyone else buy it either. It is like a "greater fool" crypto-currency where you can trade it for a profit (or loss), but you can't actually do anything with it except buy it and sell it (to an even greater fool).

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,525 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    So....in Oct spot could be bought for 17 and sold this week for 22 for a 25-30% gain.

    In Oct an ASE could be bought for 36 and sold for....???? $30....maybe for a loss of 20% or more (according to some anecdotal evidence).

    How does this physical is superior narrative work again?

    If you buy from the highest-price seller, and sell to the lowest-price buyer, that could happen.

    A post in this forum (on 27 October) indicated that one commercial source (a major dealer) had Silver Eagles available for +$13.50. So that would be $33 (using the 27 October closing "spot" price). Recent sales of Silver Eagles on eBay (auction format) are $34 each and up (by the roll, for random dates).

    So this confirms my theorem that physical silver prices are less volatile than paper versions.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    So this confirms my theorem that physical silver prices are less volatile than paper versions.

    Well of course....it's the same price it was 43 years ago!!!

    Merry Christmas!!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,967 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 25, 2022 6:32AM

    LOL sell on ebay, don't worry all those fees you incur. They are not real, just magical unicorn farts. Buy at $33 sell 2 months later at $34 minus the fees and shipping. Thats some gutter stacker math right there. #winning

    Merry New Year!!! RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,902 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 25, 2022 7:52AM

    Lower than 43 years ago - cherrypicking the data at its finest. The silver warehouses are being drained, and it's still manipulated and underpriced. But, not for long.

    These trolls represent the corrupt banking cartel and poor market timers. Holding precious metals isn't about supporting the crooked banking system or people with sour grapes who bought wrong and for all the wrong reasons. It's about holding real assets.

    If you like speculating in paper that can go "poof", by all means - go for it. If you think gov.com's bonds are better than PMs, by all means - load up now, bigtime. I want to see your reactions later when they default and your bets are settled with hyperinflated paper instead of the real stuff.

    Merry Christmas All!

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Lower than 43 years ago - cherrypicking the data at its finest. The silver warehouses are being drained, and it's still manipulated and underpriced. But, not for long.

    These trolls represent the corrupt banking cartel and poor market timers. Holding precious metals isn't about supporting the crooked banking system or people with sour grapes who bought wrong and for all the wrong reasons. It's about holding real assets.

    If you like speculating in paper that can go "poof", by all means - go for it. If you think gov.com's bonds are better than PMs, by all means - load up now, bigtime. I want to see your reactions later when they default and your bets are settled with hyperinflated paper instead of the real stuff.

    Merry Christmas All!

    They said the same thing 43 years ago.
    And we've been seeing your reactions.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,902 ✭✭✭✭✭

    They said the same thing 43 years ago.
    And we've been seeing your reactions.

    Obviously, I disagree with most everything you say. You should buy bonds now. Lots of 'em.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • tyler267tyler267 Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭✭

    Wholesale premiums are still high but are slowly getting back to more historically normal levels. Seems like fabrication capacity is catching up to demand.

  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 4,098 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 26, 2023 7:38AM

    @cohodk, I see you updated your Avitar. Much better. Probably will meet Ricko's approval as well. Just seeing that weapon should resolve many disagreements. ;)

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Goldminers said:
    @cohodk, I see you updated your Avitar. Much better. Probably will meet Ricko's approval as well. Just seeing that weapon should resolve many disagreements. ;)

    I saw jmski was behind bars so I was coming break him out. And I was getting too many love letters.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    You should buy bonds now. Lots of 'em.

    5 year treasury price up 3% in a month. Thanks for the tip!!👍

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Premiums seem to have collapsed by 50% over the last few months. Why? What has changed with the narrative?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,525 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 6, 2023 8:49AM

    At the moment the cheapest price for a roll quantity of random year Silver Eagles on APMEX is $36.08 .
    Spot silver is $22.59 . So that is a premium of $13.49 which equates to 60%. For a single coin the premium is 62%.

    Premiums are still high (and due to the recent drop in the paper price of silver, premiums are higher than they were a few days ago). While the "spot" paper price of silver dropped recently, the price on physical Silver Eagles did not drop by a similar amount (or much at all).

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:
    While the "spot" paper price of silver dropped recently, the price on physical Silver Eagles did not drop by a similar amount (or much at all).

    "Recently"....such an objective and relative word.

    To some, recently might mean a few months. For those the spot price has risen nearly 30%. How much did physical silver rise? It didn't did it? No, it actually dropped.

    So the hype a few months ago was about this massive demand leading to the 100% premiums. Now that premiums have collapsed, especially on 90% (where premium has dropped 70-80%), we ask.....why?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,525 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It is pretty simple to understand -
    When the price of silver drops, premiums tend to go up to compensate.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 9, 2023 5:06AM

    @dcarr said:
    It is pretty simple to understand -
    When the price of silver drops, premiums tend to go up to compensate.

    So the premium has very little to do with demand and is really just a function of marketing. Glad we finally have agreement on that.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,525 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @dcarr said:
    It is pretty simple to understand -
    When the price of silver drops, premiums tend to go up to compensate.

    So the premium has very little to do with demand and is really just a function of marketing. Glad we finally have agreement on that.

    Again, it should be simple to understand. When the "spot" price of silver drops, people don't want to sell their physical silver at the lower price. This reduces the available quantity of physical silver items.

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,967 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It takes a while but eventually ole skippy comes around.

    PS: plenty of gutter available, lower spot price, lower premiums. Welcome to reality. LOL

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,948 ✭✭✭✭✭

    some days peanuts some days shells. According to our prophet above all days are shells. LOL

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 10, 2023 11:12PM

    As I've said before, the price of ASEs does not tell you much about the price of "physical" silver, or the premium of physical over spot. If you take delivery of a futures contract, you'll get 5 rather crudely poured 1000 ounce bars with weights that vary by plus or minus a few percent points. You won't be getting monster boxes. The 100 ounce bars that are readily available at the major retailers are far closer in concept to what is represented by spot, though as physical property, they are in fact more convenient and are more liquid. You can obtain these for between $ 2 - 3 above spot. A premium, no doubt, but hardly unreasonable and hardly a sign of impending crisis. Some members here have been saying for ages (6 months, a year, 2 years, 10 years?) that physical silver was going through the roof, that COMEX vaults were nearly empty, that there's a crisis in the making. The fact that all of the major dealers have an ample supply of 100 ounce bars would seem to cast doubt on these concerns.

    Higashiyama
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,967 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Higashiyama said:
    As I've said before, the price of ASEs does not tell you much about the price of "physical" silver, or the premium of physical over spot. If you take delivery of a futures contract, you'll get 5 rather crudely poured 1000 ounce bars with weights that vary by plus or minus a few percent points. You won't be getting monster boxes. The 100 ounce bars that are readily available at the major retailers are far closer in concept to what is represented by spot, though as physical property, they are in fact more convenient and are more liquid. You can obtain these for between $ 2 - 3 above spot. A premium, no doubt, but hardly unreasonable and hardly a sign of impending crisis. Some members here have been saying for ages (6 months, a year, 2 years, 10 years?) that physical silver was going through the roof, that COMEX vaults were nearly empty, that there's a crisis in the making. The fact that all of the major dealers have an ample supply of 100 ounce bars would seem to cast doubt on these concerns.

    Amen brother. Some cherry pick the data points to promote their agenda. The rest of us live in the real world. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,902 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2023 6:02AM

    There WAS a supply shortage that was well-documented. Now, there is not. What's so hard to understand?

    Furthermore, it's well understood and well documented that silver is more volatile than gold, that Comex is always playing games with vault inventory, and that there is no doubt about the impending debt crisis.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,967 ✭✭✭✭✭

    OK, I'll play along. Suppose this "impending" debt crisis, imaginary financial collapse, zombies trying to flood your bunker, etc. whatever you want to call it comes true. What on earth is gutter metal going to do you you? At that point gutter metal would be absolutely useless to anyone on planet earth.

    There is no well documented supply shortage, gutter is plentiful and always has been. Sure there is the occasional perception that gutter is rare during times of extreme manipulation (see the 1980 Hunt brothers). That's why it's not even considered a PM. Some of you guys believe anything you read on the internet. CRZY!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,897 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2023 9:36AM

    Obviously, haven't been able to read all or most of these posts but let me offer the perspective of a non-ASE buyer who nonetheless knows what is going on here from a market perspective:

    At this time, it's fair to point the finger of blame at the U.S. Mint and their oligopoly of special dealers. It's one thing to have a premium because of supply imbalances during Covid.

    That was 3 years ago. :o

    There's no reason for the ASE Silver Premium to persist this long with no material move in the price of silver and no volatility that would account for a premium necessary to counter that volatility risk. This is the U.S. Mint guilty of collaboration with those dealers, and no, I am NOT a guy who believes these pie-in-the-sky conspiracy BS YouTube crapfests like JP Morgan and silver, etc.

    If a private company were involved instead of the U.S. Mint, the FTC and DoJ would have long been involved here !!

    If the U.S. Mint were to seek out ALL dealers and then agree to sell ASEs to those dealers who promised to sell at the LOWEST PRICE -- just like they demand of market makers for stocks (where the bid-ask spread is measured in pennies) -- this ripoff premium nonsense wouldn't be happening.

    For those of you who contact dealers or the U.S. Mint, ask them: "How come the FTC and DoJ and SEC are worried about spreads a few pennies or a nickel too high on stocks....but a spread of 30-40% on ASEs doesn't merit a peep ?"

    I'm not an ASE buyer, so I have no dog in this hunt. But I am tired of lying hypocritical government double-talk. Again, if this was a private company and not the U.S. Mint, the DoJ and FTC would have been on this LONG ago.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,897 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2023 9:45AM

    @jmski52 said:
    There WAS a supply shortage that was well-documented. Now, there is not. What's so hard to understand?

    Furthermore, it's well understood and well documented that silver is more volatile than gold, that Comex is always playing games with vault inventory, and that there is no doubt about the impending debt crisis.

    Silver and gold volatility the last few years pales in comparison to other investments/asset classes. So a super-rich premium isn't needed 3 years after Covid. Hell, the premiums on put options from March 2020 fell within a few months. :)

    COMEX doesn't play around with vault inventory, different actors have different needs: speculators, hedge funds, commercial hedgers, jewelry buyers, central banks, ETFs, retail accounts, etc. If anybody thinks Big Banks are manipulating this stuff, take it from someone who worked for 2 large banks managing their capital positions: heads would have ROLLED if Tier 1 capital was deployed into commodities on any significant scale.

    I wouldn't wait up for the impending debt crisis. While I do think that rising rates might show who is swimming naked as the tide goes out (as Warren likes to say), it's more likely to be with the mish-mash of the EU/Euro that we saw in 2011-12. Keep an eye on Italian 10-year bonds, 7% was the red line a decade or so ago. Right now, Italian 10-years are at 4.20%. Spreads are contained, but the overall rise in rates has KO'd the says of 1-2% yields.

    Remember, it took 30 years for Greece -- a 3rd rate, tourist-dependent economy -- to hit the skids after implementing their whacko Socialist "let's give everybody everything" agenda. It will take a lot more than that to knock big dominos in the EU/Euro bloc, let alone a global financial reserve superpower like the U.S.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,902 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2023 10:31AM

    Obviously, haven't been able to read all or most of these posts

    Then, perhaps you should give it a shot.

    take it from someone who worked for 2 large banks managing their capital positions: heads would have ROLLED if Tier 1 capital was deployed into commodities on any significant scale.

    You mean, like JPM? Google it. It's not too hard to find.

    https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=2761f0f06be7e5bdJmltdHM9MTY3NjA3MzYwMCZpZ3VpZD0yYzlmZTcxZi03NTc3LTZhMTktM2NmNi1mNmJiNzQxODZiYzYmaW5zaWQ9NTE3NA&ptn=3&hsh=3&fclid=2c9fe71f-7577-6a19-3cf6-f6bb74186bc6&psq=jp+morgan+silver+scandal&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuanVzdGljZS5nb3Yvb3BhL3ByL2pwbW9yZ2FuLWNoYXNlLWNvLWFncmVlcy1wYXktOTIwLW1pbGxpb24tY29ubmVjdGlvbi1zY2hlbWVzLWRlZnJhdWQtcHJlY2lvdXMtbWV0YWxzLWFuZC11cw&ntb=1

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,525 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2023 11:50AM

    @blitzdude said:
    OK, I'll play along. Suppose this "impending" debt crisis, imaginary financial collapse, zombies trying to flood your bunker, etc. whatever you want to call it comes true. What on earth is gutter metal going to do you you? At that point gutter metal would be absolutely useless to anyone on planet earth.

    There is no well documented supply shortage, gutter is plentiful and always has been. Sure there is the occasional perception that gutter is rare during times of extreme manipulation (see the 1980 Hunt brothers). That's why it's not even considered a PM. Some of you guys believe anything you read on the internet. CRZY!

    You are the only one writing about "zombies" and "bunkers".

    Debt levels are astronomically high, and going higher. Much higher. As always, money will be printed so as to prop up these debt structures to avert a debt collapse (wide-spread defaults). This means that, as usual, a dollar will buy less tomorrow than it does today.

    Over time, as the Dollar is debased, the purchasing power of silver remains fairly constant when following the baseline trend:

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,967 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Gutter was $50 in 1980, it isn't even half that now. You would've been better off buying corn nuts. THKS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • Piano1Piano1 Posts: 233 ✭✭✭

    Well, call me sentimental (or other things), but my wife has a quilting friend who was going to try to schlep her late husband's several thousands of dollars of U.S. silver dimes, quarters, and half dollars (1920s-1964) to a smelter and get 85% of melt value. (I could never figure out how the smelters deducted for the amount of wear) but anyway, there were no rarities but essentially all were in VG and significantly higher, several G-VG Barbers and stuff so I offered to buy it from her. I just couldn't stand the thought of all of that history going into the melting pot. Silver was at $19.25 and I got it for just under 85% of that per ounce as she didn't want to lug it out of state to a smelter. The negative, storage is costing me a pretty penny at the bank but at least the coins are safe from the smelter. I think I could have a bit of a profit...if I ever sell. My thinking, save it for my son and grandson in the event of an "economic disaster". Dumb?

    Piano1

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,967 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Piano1 said:
    Well, call me sentimental (or other things), but my wife has a quilting friend who was going to try to schlep her late husband's several thousands of dollars of U.S. silver dimes, quarters, and half dollars (1920s-1964) to a smelter and get 85% of melt value. (I could never figure out how the smelters deducted for the amount of wear) but anyway, there were no rarities but essentially all were in VG and significantly higher, several G-VG Barbers and stuff so I offered to buy it from her. I just couldn't stand the thought of all of that history going into the melting pot. Silver was at $19.25 and I got it for just under 85% of that per ounce as she didn't want to lug it out of state to a smelter. The negative, storage is costing me a pretty penny at the bank but at least the coins are safe from the smelter. I think I could have a bit of a profit...if I ever sell. My thinking, save it for my son and grandson in the event of an "economic disaster". Dumb?

    Piano1

    I personally think you may have overpaid but it was certainly nice of you to help out your wifes friend.

    I also wouldn't spend to much time worrying about economic disasters. Assuming you are in the US you, me, your son, grandson etc. will never see one. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,897 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2023 1:36PM

    @jmski52 said:
    Obviously, haven't been able to read all or most of these posts

    Then, perhaps you should give it a shot.

    take it from someone who worked for 2 large banks managing their capital positions: heads would have ROLLED if Tier 1 capital was deployed into commodities on any significant scale.

    You mean, like JPM? Google it. It's not too hard to find.

    https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=2761f0f06be7e5bdJmltdHM9MTY3NjA3MzYwMCZpZ3VpZD0yYzlmZTcxZi03NTc3LTZhMTktM2NmNi1mNmJiNzQxODZiYzYmaW5zaWQ9NTE3NA&ptn=3&hsh=3&fclid=2c9fe71f-7577-6a19-3cf6-f6bb74186bc6&psq=jp+morgan+silver+scandal&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuanVzdGljZS5nb3Yvb3BhL3ByL2pwbW9yZ2FuLWNoYXNlLWNvLWFncmVlcy1wYXktOTIwLW1pbGxpb24tY29ubmVjdGlvbi1zY2hlbWVzLWRlZnJhdWQtcHJlY2lvdXMtbWV0YWxzLWFuZC11cw&ntb=1

    Did you read the press release ? It's focused on the minutae of price discovery involving 2 different products: commodities, and U.S. Treasuries (the most liquid investments on Earth). The trades were for clients, not the bank's capital account(s).

    Proves my point. The government has nothing and it's basically a nuisance settlement.

    I wonder what would have happened if JPM marked up the prices by 30-40% like the U.S. Mint is doing with ASEs ?? :)

  • Piano1Piano1 Posts: 233 ✭✭✭

    Blitzdude.

    Your comments are appreciated. Our financial guy has said to my wife and me, "in the event of an economic disaster, what would have value would be cans of vegetables". I'm no survivalist, but I can see that. I don't expect that silver will hit $50 an ounce again, but if nothing else, I see silver as a store of value if paper currency becomes worthless, even if it IS backed by the full faith of the U.S. government. It just gives me a warm-fuzzy feeling knowing the silver is there if ever needed. Worst comes to worst, I can sell rolls on E-Bay for a decent profit. (Don't want to, though.)

    Piano1

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,897 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2023 1:41PM

    @dcarr said:

    Over time, as the Dollar is debased, the purchasing power of silver remains fairly constant when following the baseline trend:

    The dollar "debasement" and volatility is nothing compared to the ups-and-downs of silver.

    Maybe if William Jennings Bryan had gotten his way and we were on a Silver Standard, then silver would have purchasing value. As such, it remains a free-floating volatile commodity.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,902 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2023 2:17PM

    Did you read the press release ?

    Yes, it's quite clear that JPM was cheating bigtime, trying to avoid in-house losses.

    In tens of thousands of instances, traders on the precious metals desk placed orders to buy and sell precious metals futures contracts with the intent to cancel those orders before execution, including in an attempt to profit by deceiving other market participants through injecting false and misleading information concerning the existence of genuine supply and demand for precious metals futures contracts. In addition, on certain occasions, traders on the precious metals desk engaged in trading activity that was intended to deliberately trigger or defend barrier options held by JPMorgan and thereby avoid losses.

    A $920 million settlement is a nuisance settlement? Almost a billion dollars - sounds like they were screwing alot of other market participants. I don't know how you could ever justify or trivialize that.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,897 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2023 5:10PM

    @jmski52 said:
    Did you read the press release ?

    Yes, it's quite clear that JPM was cheating bigtime, trying to avoid in-house losses.

    In tens of thousands of instances, traders on the precious metals desk placed orders to buy and sell precious metals futures contracts with the intent to cancel those orders before execution, including in an attempt to profit by deceiving other market participants through injecting false and misleading information concerning the existence of genuine supply and demand for precious metals futures contracts. In addition, on certain occasions, traders on the precious metals desk engaged in trading activity that was intended to deliberately trigger or defend barrier options held by JPMorgan and thereby avoid losses.

    A $920 million settlement is a nuisance settlement? Almost a billion dollars - sounds like they were screwing alot of other market participants. I don't know how you could ever justify or trivialize that.

    Because it's considered the cost of doing business. And they weren't "screwing other market participants" unless you consider speculators and hedge funds widows & orphans. :)

    Take the Treasury issue. They either kept prices high or low, which meant bond yields were low or high. So who got screwed -- borrowers or savers ? If they moved rates higher, they hurt their own book of bonds. If they moved them lower, they made less money lending.

    What most people don't understand is that the bank -- like a bookie -- is not supposed to be wagering on asset classes. It wants to collect fees (vig). That's what is safest....not to gamble on price moves.

    In fact, for every department that was suppressing gold or silver or Treasury prices, there was probabaly another one that was taking the OPPOSITE positions. This was done most famously by Goldman Sachs and BankAmerica in 2007-08....when each had their credit departments BEARISH on real estate.....and GS's Alpha Hedge Fund (for top honchos) was long the stuff, too.....while other departments were BULLISH on the stuff. Yet the 70-IQ mainstream press tried to make it seem like Goldman and BOA (whose stock prices went down 80% and 90%, respectively) had "inside information" and were profiting from it. If they did, their stock prices wouldn't have gone down that much, if at all. :)

    My point is you have to read between the lines with these settlements and allegations of price-fixing, etc. Again, notice how the DoJ and FTC -- usually so concerned with monopoly power (i.e., Microsoft and ActivisionBlizzard) -- say nothing about the ASE premiums staying at ridiculous levels. If the U.S. Mint was a private company, they'd be under a lawsuit by now. :)

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,902 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2023 9:28PM

    Nah, it's not worth it.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,525 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 12, 2023 3:38AM

    @blitzdude said:
    Some cherry pick the data points to promote their agenda. The rest of us live in the real world. RGDS!

    @blitzdude said:
    Gutter was $50 in 1980, it isn't even half that now. You would've been better off buying corn nuts. THKS!

    .

    There you go, "cherry picking" data points right after you complained about people doing that.

    .

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,967 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Enjoy your corn nuts Skippy! THKS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

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