I personally think the long-term fundamentals and supply/demand situations for gold, silver, and copper are very positive. But I still consider any purchases here to be SPECULATIONS and not INVESTMENTS.
And while it's not a substitute to holding the actual metal/bars/coins as "disaster insurance", I do think 1 or 2 mining stocks (properly vetted and DD'd) could do nicely over the next decade.
@blitzdude said:
OK, I'll play along. Suppose this "impending" debt crisis, imaginary financial collapse, zombies trying to flood your bunker, etc. whatever you want to call it comes true.
the problem with you rose colored glasses guys is that you see only two extremes: A rainbow filled economy or an "imaginary financial collapse." You fail to understand that there are vary differing levels of great and bad between the two extremes you can only see. Impending debt crisis is well underway, financial collapse worsen each day and zombies are still alive but eating my tax dollars. Anyone paying attention notes the same results.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
@blitzdude said:
OK, I'll play along. Suppose this "impending" debt crisis, imaginary financial collapse, zombies trying to flood your bunker, etc. whatever you want to call it comes true.
the problem with you rose colored glasses guys is that you see only two extremes: A rainbow filled economy or an "imaginary financial collapse." You fail to understand that there are vary differing levels of great and bad between the two extremes you can only see. Impending debt crisis is well underway, financial collapse worsen each day and zombies are still alive but eating my tax dollars. Anyone paying attention notes the same results.
No idea what the weather is like down in cancel land but up here in the Commonweath we are feeling spring in in the dead of February. If you are blessed with such dayz I beg you to venture outside and try to enjoy them. Every single one is precious. "Merica" is GREAT! SEMPER!!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
You prove my point. Contrary to the fog you live in it is not always sunny outside. Those that see the clouds are not doomsdayers, they are realist. Unlike you they own an umbrella.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Regarding @derryb's post above, let's try something. (in the most dispassionate way possible). Let's categorize the active PCGS precious metals group participants into one of two categories:
A. Generally optimistic about the future of the US, and
B. Generally pessimistic about the future of the US
If someone is truly neutral, we could add a third category ("neutral"), though I suspect almost everyone posting here would fall into one of these categories. Generally optimistic would include those that might be considered, by some, to wear rose colored glasses. Generally pessimistic would include those that might be considered, by some, to be doomsayers.
For "future" -- say, next 50 years? So, for example, if you believe that there will be an acute crisis in the next 5 - 10 years, but are reasonably optimistic we'll get through it, and will do well beyond that, you'd be in category A.
There really is a point to this --- and it ties somewhat to precious metals -- but that comes next.
For moment, where do you all fall? I am in category A. (with certain caveats)
@Higashiyama, I doubt many would offer a binary response to this question. I certainly can't even if I lean pessimistic at times. Instead, I would ask you whether any PM investments you have are directly rated to the caveats you allude to? Because if one were fully optimistic about the future of the US, they would not likely own any bullion.
At the Nebraska City coin show this last weekend, could have bought rolls of silver eagles.... at $30 per coin. Not sure if that is good or not; did not purchase them.
@Higashiyama Maybe you should start a poll in a new thread to track results.
Many unforeseen circumstances in the world and things certainly can change at any time. I like insurance and truth be told I've probably prepped myself better than many of the doomsayers. Expect the unexpected but live in reality, I guess. I'm in category A. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Silver has been all over the map the past 3 years from spot of 13 to 30 and ASE premiums from +1 to +16.
Crazy time to try to buy and sell. Holding out for spot around 40-50 and forgetting about the stupid premium game that has been played lately.
No idea what the weather is like down in cancel land but up here in the Commonweath we are feeling spring in in the dead of February. If you are blessed with such dayz I beg you to venture outside and try to enjoy them. Every single one is precious. "Merica" is GREAT! SEMPER!!!
.
You don't seem to like it here very much. If it is so great out there in your "real world", why do you spend time here "doom scrolling" ?
@jmski52 said:
What's the multiple on 90% these days? Is 20X reasonable?
Not now. Some bullion dealers are selling for under 18X. Buying at @ little over 15X. It is ugly.
I remember when 90% silver premiums were low (near zero) and a $1,000 face value bag could be bought for $3,000. I had fun a few times buying such bags to do "roll hunting". I would pick out some nicer coins to keep and sell the rest. It was fun (the opposite of "ugly").
No idea what the weather is like down in cancel land but up here in the Commonweath we are feeling spring in in the dead of February. If you are blessed with such dayz I beg you to venture outside and try to enjoy them. Every single one is precious. "Merica" is GREAT! SEMPER!!!
.
You don't seem to like it here very much. If it is so great out there in your "real world", why do you spend time here "doom scrolling" ?
@derryb said:
Also APMEX no longer has ASEs in stock, pre-selling for future delivery. Look for supply issues now to join the farcas and push premiums at a higher rate:
>
>
The people have said they are tired of the "fake news". They have them for sale and they are on sale.
The above is from Nov 10, 2022. Notice the spot price at the time....within pennies of today. Yet premium on ASE is down $6!!!!
Imagine if we discussing another asset class such as equities, bonds or real estate and witnessed such a decline. Oh, the hyperbole!!
@cohodk said:
Imagine if we discussing another asset class such as equities, bonds or real estate and witnessed such a decline. Oh, the hyperbole!!
This is a precious metals forum. So, naturally, other types of assets are not discussed as much here.
But all those other asset classes have also performed poorly, since interest rate hikes started in earnest.
@cohodk said:
Imagine if we discussing another asset class such as equities, bonds or real estate and witnessed such a decline. Oh, the hyperbole!!
This is a precious metals forum. So, naturally, other types of assets are not discussed as much here.
But all those other asset classes have also performed poorly, since interest rate hikes started in earnest.
Those asset classes have been discussed on this forum with fervent disdain and mockery when performing poorly. Yet when forum members discuss PMs in the same light they are ostracized. I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy...as I often do.
So let's go back to the beginning of this thread and reread the comments.
@cohodk said:
Imagine if we discussing another asset class such as equities, bonds or real estate and witnessed such a decline. Oh, the hyperbole!!
This is a precious metals forum. So, naturally, other types of assets are not discussed as much here.
But all those other asset classes have also performed poorly, since interest rate hikes started in earnest.
Those asset classes have been discussed on this forum with fervent disdain and mockery when performing poorly. Yet when forum members discuss PMs in the same light they are ostracized. I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy...as I often do.
So let's go back to the beginning of this thread and reread the comments.
You sir are an asset to this forum. You continue to try to promote "Reality" while most everyone else continues to fixate one talking point. Bravo to you for your repeated attempts to keep the Collectors Universe Precious Metals Forum REAL! Enjoy the early gift that ole Phil got wrong again. I know you are enjoying that fresh spring air. RGDS!!!!!!!!!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
I haven’t bought any silver in a couple years as I have a decent pile saved up. I just went to apmex to get some rounds for my albums and was shocked at the premiums! $13 for an ASE. $20+ if you want a libertad or kookaburra. That’s crazy!
Positive dealing with oilstates2003, rkfish, Scrapman1077, Weather11am, Guitarwes, Twosides2acoin, Hendrixkat, Sevensteps, CarlWohlforth, DLBack, zug, wildjag, tetradrachm, tydye, NotSure, AgBlox, Seemyauction, Stopmotion, Zubie, Fivecents, Musky1011, Bstat1020, Gsa1fan several times, and Mkman123 LOTS of times
@cohodk said:
Imagine if we discussing another asset class such as equities, bonds or real estate and witnessed such a decline. Oh, the hyperbole!!
This is a precious metals forum. So, naturally, other types of assets are not discussed as much here.
But all those other asset classes have also performed poorly, since interest rate hikes started in earnest.
Those asset classes have been discussed on this forum with fervent disdain and mockery when performing poorly. Yet when forum members discuss PMs in the same light they are ostracized. I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy...as I often do.
So let's go back to the beginning of this thread and reread the comments.
It may be hard for you to understand, but some people like physical precious metals, whether they go up or down in relation to USD. Gold, as an asset, has withstood the test of time, over 5,000+ years. Other assets (promises), not so much.
Some "assets" deserve the ridicule they receive. But contrary to your "fervent disdain and mockery" claim, I do not see that level of derision here very much.
Maybe if you posted your points of view about other assets in a less condescending way, people might receive it better ?
It may even be harder for some to understand that many people like other assets just as much as their precious metals. I for one like to diversify. I got gutter (paper and physical), gold, bitcoins, stocks, farm land, oil, nat gas, etc, Never put all the eggs in one basket so to speak. God bless The Commonwealth! RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
I don't think there's disdain for the concept of holding physical metals (though it's been pointed out that there are potentially significant transaction costs, and also risks and costs associated with holding physical)
However, I think that a vocal subset of participants here have for quite some time promoted the following view:
The spot market is completely detached from the reality of the market for physical metals. Because traders can, with a few keystrokes, create electronic obligations for precious metals, these electronic obligations have no inherent value, and this leads to distortion and sometimes outright manipulation. This fact, combined with a growing demand for physical, leads to an ever growing gap between the physical and spot prices. Soon there will be a day of reckoning, and physical metal prices will go through the roof, leaving the COMEX vaults depleted and the market for the electronic representations in shambles.
Have I misrepresented this argument?
Does anyone on this board agree with the argument stated above?
Has anyone on this board who once agreed with this argument revised their view?
I don't think there's disdain for the concept of holding physical metals (though it's been pointed out that there are potentially significant transaction costs, and also risks and costs associated with holding physical)
However, I think that a vocal subset of participants here have for quite some time promoted the following view:
The spot market is completely detached from the reality of the market for physical metals. Because traders can, with a few keystrokes, create electronic obligations for precious metals, these electronic obligations have no inherent value, and this leads to distortion and sometimes outright manipulation. This fact, combined with a growing demand for physical, leads to an ever growing gap between the physical and spot prices. Soon there will be a day of reckoning, and physical metal prices will go through the roof, leaving the COMEX vaults depleted and the market for the electronic representations in shambles.
Have I misrepresented this argument?
Does anyone on this board agree with the argument stated above?
Has anyone on this board who once agreed with this argument revised their view?
There are attempts (some successful) to manipulate all types of financial markets, usually for the benefit of those doing the meddling. This interference can cause the manipulated item to go up or down in value, and it is not limited to precious metals or even commodities. Stocks and bonds are also involved.
Over time it seems that traditional financial markets for stocks and bonds have become less authentic. For example, free markets should set interest rates - not the central-planning Federal Reserve. In times of distress, stock markets are propped up (manipulated) by major financial entities.
Those in charge do what they can to influence people away from accumulating physical commodities (including precious metals). They rather you "invest" in their products where they make money on the transaction (stocks, bonds, credit default swaps, etc., or even ETFs). If a major financial institution is proposing investment strategies to a pension fund (for example) they won't be mentioning asset classes (such as precious metals) where the financial institution won't be making any money off it.
So the market for physical precious metals is among the most authentic because the government and most major financial institutions don't care if the price for precious metal drops precipitously. They are not going to step in to prop up precious metals prices like they would with the stock market.
But every time they step in to prop up some segment of the markets or economy, it costs the Dollar some of its value.
Those in charge do what they can to influence people away from accumulating physical commodities (including precious metals). They rather you "invest" in their products where they make money on the transaction (stocks, bonds, credit default swaps, etc., or even ETFs). If a major financial institution is proposing investment strategies to a pension fund (for example) they won't be mentioning asset classes (such as precious metals) where the financial institution won't be making any money off it.
So the market for physical precious metals is among the most authentic because the government and most major financial institutions don't care if the price for precious metal drops precipitously. They are not going to step in to prop up precious metals prices like they would with the stock market.
A moderate, open-minded person free of biases, may view the purveyors of fear-mongering, doom and gloom narratives to influence people away from accumulating any asset other than PMs. Don't you read the blogs that derryb posts and the advertising embedded within? Preying on fears is the most insidious forms of influence. You think the sellers of PMs are not motives by profit?
The physical PM markets are very small and subject to massive manipulation. Just look at the premium manipulation presented in this thread. It's egregious. And wholly supported by many.
Those in charge do what they can to influence people away from accumulating physical commodities (including precious metals). They rather you "invest" in their products where they make money on the transaction (stocks, bonds, credit default swaps, etc., or even ETFs). If a major financial institution is proposing investment strategies to a pension fund (for example) they won't be mentioning asset classes (such as precious metals) where the financial institution won't be making any money off it.
So the market for physical precious metals is among the most authentic because the government and most major financial institutions don't care if the price for precious metal drops precipitously. They are not going to step in to prop up precious metals prices like they would with the stock market.
A moderate, open-minded person free of biases, may view the purveyors of fear-mongering, doom and gloom narratives to influence people away from accumulating any asset other than PMs. Don't you read the blogs that derryb posts and the advertising embedded within? Preying on fears is the most insidious forms of influence. You think the sellers of PMs are not motives by profit?
The physical PM markets are very small and subject to massive manipulation. Just look at the premium manipulation presented in this thread. It's egregious. And wholly supported by many.
The sellers of physical precious metals to the general public are not really major financial institutions. Nothing like the big banks that own the Federal Reserve, for example.
The Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) is an influencing tactic used by stock market purveyors. So using "fear" to steer capital flows is not limited to physical precious metals. It is everywhere.
You used to claim that there was no manipulation in precious metals. But now you claim that premiums are manipulated ? Premiums are a result of supply and demand for fabricated items. Premiums are not "manipulated" or egregious. They are simply the result of market forces at the time.
Those in charge do what they can to influence people away from accumulating physical commodities (including precious metals). They rather you "invest" in their products where they make money on the transaction (stocks, bonds, credit default swaps, etc., or even ETFs). If a major financial institution is proposing investment strategies to a pension fund (for example) they won't be mentioning asset classes (such as precious metals) where the financial institution won't be making any money off it.
So the market for physical precious metals is among the most authentic because the government and most major financial institutions don't care if the price for precious metal drops precipitously. They are not going to step in to prop up precious metals prices like they would with the stock market.
A moderate, open-minded person free of biases, may view the purveyors of fear-mongering, doom and gloom narratives to influence people away from accumulating any asset other than PMs. Don't you read the blogs that derryb posts and the advertising embedded within? Preying on fears is the most insidious forms of influence. You think the sellers of PMs are not motives by profit?
The physical PM markets are very small and subject to massive manipulation. Just look at the premium manipulation presented in this thread. It's egregious. And wholly supported by many.
The sellers of physical precious metals to the general public are not really major financial institutions. Nothing like the big banks that own the Federal Reserve, for example.
A 12 inch bass is a big fish in a pond full of guppies.
The Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) is an influencing tactic used by stock market purveyors. So using "fear" to steer capital flows is not limited to physical precious metals. It is everywhere.
Didn't say it was limited. But is a main "fundamental" in the PM market.
You used to claim that there was no manipulation in precious metals. But now you claim that premiums are manipulated ? Premiums are a result of supply and demand for fabricated items. Premiums are not "manipulated" or egregious. They are simply the result of market forces at the time.
I've always said the physical market and premiums are highly manipulated. Pay attention.
So the market for physical precious metals is among the most authentic because the government and most major financial institutions don't care if the price for precious metal drops precipitously. They are not going to step in to prop up precious metals prices like they would with the stock market.
But it is necessary for them to care if the price of metals rises precipitiously. It interferes with them propping up the dollar and exposes fear in the future of the dollar.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
I've always said the physical market and premiums are highly manipulated. Pay attention.
The only manipulation in the physical market is by market participants bidding up or down what they are willing to pay or what they are willing to sell for. All free markets, for this reason, are manipulated. Do not confuse free markets with those under the influence of artificial and even false market forces.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
So the market for physical precious metals is among the most authentic because the government and most major financial institutions don't care if the price for precious metal drops precipitously. They are not going to step in to prop up precious metals prices like they would with the stock market.
But it is necessary for them to care if the price of metals rises precipitiously. It interferes with them propping up the dollar and exposes fear in the future of the dollar.
You are the one who is "afraid". Why else would you need that big gun in your avatar ?
But in my estimation the fear levels out there are nowhere near high enough to buy stocks (or even real estate) at this time.
I think it better to wait for a "washout" (at least, as much a washout as the financial powers will allow).
I've always said the physical market and premiums are highly manipulated. Pay attention.
The only manipulation in the physical market is by market participants bidding up or down what they are willing to pay or what they are willing to sell for. All free markets, for this reason, are manipulated. Do not confuse free markets with those under the influence of artificial and even false market forces.
And the smaller the market, the easier to manipulate. Glad you've finally realized the manipulation in the physical market.
@blitzdude said:
It may even be harder for some to understand that many people like other assets just as much as their precious metals. I for one like to diversify. I got gutter (paper and physical), gold, bitcoins, stocks, farm land, oil, nat gas, etc, Never put all the eggs in one basket so to speak. God bless The Commonwealth! RGDS!
I've always said the physical market and premiums are highly manipulated. Pay attention.
The only manipulation in the physical market is by market participants bidding up or down what they are willing to pay or what they are willing to sell for. All free markets, for this reason, are manipulated. Do not confuse free markets with those under the influence of artificial and even false market forces.
And the smaller the market, the easier to manipulate. Glad you've finally realized the manipulation in the physical market.
You've made the claim that the physical precious metals market is "manipulated".
The burden of proof is on you to explain who has done it, and how did they do it.
I don't think there's disdain for the concept of holding physical metals (though it's been pointed out that there are potentially significant transaction costs, and also risks and costs associated with holding physical)
However, I think that a vocal subset of participants here have for quite some time promoted the following view:
The spot market is completely detached from the reality of the market for physical metals. Because traders can, with a few keystrokes, create electronic obligations for precious metals, these electronic obligations have no inherent value, and this leads to distortion and sometimes outright manipulation. This fact, combined with a growing demand for physical, leads to an ever growing gap between the physical and spot prices. Soon there will be a day of reckoning, and physical metal prices will go through the roof, leaving the COMEX vaults depleted and the market for the electronic representations in shambles.
Have I misrepresented this argument?
Does anyone on this board agree with the argument stated above?
Has anyone on this board who once agreed with this argument revised their view?
There are attempts (some successful) to manipulate all types of financial markets, usually for the benefit of those doing the meddling. This interference can cause the manipulated item to go up or down in value, and it is not limited to precious metals or even commodities. Stocks and bonds are also involved.
Over time it seems that traditional financial markets for stocks and bonds have become less authentic. For example, free markets should set interest rates - not the central-planning Federal Reserve. In times of distress, stock markets are propped up (manipulated) by major financial entities.
Those in charge do what they can to influence people away from accumulating physical commodities (including precious metals). They rather you "invest" in their products where they make money on the transaction (stocks, bonds, credit default swaps, etc., or even ETFs). If a major financial institution is proposing investment strategies to a pension fund (for example) they won't be mentioning asset classes (such as precious metals) where the financial institution won't be making any money off it.
So the market for physical precious metals is among the most authentic because the government and most major financial institutions don't care if the price for precious metal drops precipitously. They are not going to step in to prop up precious metals prices like they would with the stock market.
But every time they step in to prop up some segment of the markets or economy, it costs the Dollar some of its value.
(1) Physical and cash markets converge over time. There are too many players to "manipulate" a market in any direction for any length of time in a material fashion. The markets are simply too big. If you don't believe that, go talk to Gabe Plotkin and Melvin Capital.
(2) Most institutions do not take positions on asset classes. They win by collecting fees. They are not in the business of betting the firm on market moves anymore than a bookie wants to bet on a team winning or losing; he just wants to collect his vig. Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers each bet the firm on asset price movements -- it didn't work out too well for them. And there was NO bailout of them, contrary to what demagogic politicians and ignorant journalists would have you believe.
(3) Fees for physical illiquid assets like gold are much higher than for gold or commodities. So if anything, institutions should be selling those. The fees are MUCH HIGHER than for stocks or bonds or other liquidly-traded asset classes.
(4) Wall Street doesn't tell pensions funds or hedge funds or SWFs what asset classes they want to invest in -- THEY tell Wall Street what they want to invest in. The notion that they are a bunch of country bumpkins being conned into buying expensive garbage is nonsense. This is a byproduct of a financially illiterate media and press (for the most part) comprised of Art History and Sociology and Journalism majors who don't know what they are writing about when they cover financial markets. Like having a Phys Ed major become a medical journal editor.
(5) I do believe that gold will hit $3,000 by 2030 if not sooner. But it won't be because of illegal shorting or manipulation or whatever. It will be because multiple marginal sources of demand will overcome whatever supply hits. Look for several up $100-$200 days in a row. When commodities or gold move, they move FAST.
(6) The reason the governments don't step in for commodities is because they do not represent SYSTEMIC risks to the financial system. They aren't important like they were 40+ years ago. In 1980, the gold market and the foreign exchange market traded about $1 billion each day. Today, gold trades about $50 billion daily -- and the foreign exchange market trades about $7 TRILLION each day. Bond and equity market daily volumes dwarf the gold market and other commodities. It's not a conspiracy, it's common sense.
I've always said the physical market and premiums are highly manipulated. Pay attention.
The only manipulation in the physical market is by market participants bidding up or down what they are willing to pay or what they are willing to sell for. All free markets, for this reason, are manipulated. Do not confuse free markets with those under the influence of artificial and even false market forces.
And the smaller the market, the easier to manipulate. Glad you've finally realized the manipulation in the physical market.
Except even the smallest markets are too big for even the biggest banks to target. You would blow tens of billions of capital on such a move. CEOs and others would lose their jobs -- assuming they didn't blow up the bank (i.e., Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers).
Also, there's this little thing called regulators: The Fed.....Treasury....OCC.....FDIC...etc. They MIGHT want to talk to you if you decide you're going to go from being a banker to a Las Vegas casino.
I've always said the physical market and premiums are highly manipulated. Pay attention.
The only manipulation in the physical market is by market participants bidding up or down what they are willing to pay or what they are willing to sell for. All free markets, for this reason, are manipulated. Do not confuse free markets with those under the influence of artificial and even false market forces.
And the smaller the market, the easier to manipulate. Glad you've finally realized the manipulation in the physical market.
You've made the claim that the physical precious metals market is "manipulated".
The burden of proof is on you to explain who has done it, and how did they do it.
@GoldFinger1969 said: (4) Wall Street doesn't tell pensions funds or hedge funds or SWFs what asset classes they want to invest in --THEY tell Wall Street what they want to invest in. The notion that they are a bunch of country bumpkins being conned into buying expensive garbage is nonsense. This is a byproduct of a financially illiterate media and press (for the most part) comprised of Art History and Sociology and Journalism majors who don't know what they are writing about when they cover financial markets. Like having a Phys Ed major become a medical journal editor.
.It's not a conspiracy, it's common sense.
Welcome aboard Goldfinger. You're gonna make a lot of friends here. Lol
Kilo silver bars at APMEX are selling for $24.00/ounce this morning. Premium for them is not too bad at the moment.
The premium for US silver eagles (they are currently asking around $33/ounce) is still excessive and very hard to understand because there is plenty of supply.
Comments
I personally think the long-term fundamentals and supply/demand situations for gold, silver, and copper are very positive. But I still consider any purchases here to be SPECULATIONS and not INVESTMENTS.
And while it's not a substitute to holding the actual metal/bars/coins as "disaster insurance", I do think 1 or 2 mining stocks (properly vetted and DD'd) could do nicely over the next decade.
>
>
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You already own all the corny nutz.
So not for me, thanks anyway.
PS:
Skippy is made with PEAnuts (we hope).
.
the problem with you rose colored glasses guys is that you see only two extremes: A rainbow filled economy or an "imaginary financial collapse." You fail to understand that there are vary differing levels of great and bad between the two extremes you can only see. Impending debt crisis is well underway, financial collapse worsen each day and zombies are still alive but eating my tax dollars. Anyone paying attention notes the same results.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
No idea what the weather is like down in cancel land but up here in the Commonweath we are feeling spring in in the dead of February. If you are blessed with such dayz I beg you to venture outside and try to enjoy them. Every single one is precious. "Merica" is GREAT! SEMPER!!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
You prove my point. Contrary to the fog you live in it is not always sunny outside. Those that see the clouds are not doomsdayers, they are realist. Unlike you they own an umbrella.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Regarding @derryb's post above, let's try something. (in the most dispassionate way possible). Let's categorize the active PCGS precious metals group participants into one of two categories:
A. Generally optimistic about the future of the US, and
B. Generally pessimistic about the future of the US
If someone is truly neutral, we could add a third category ("neutral"), though I suspect almost everyone posting here would fall into one of these categories. Generally optimistic would include those that might be considered, by some, to wear rose colored glasses. Generally pessimistic would include those that might be considered, by some, to be doomsayers.
For "future" -- say, next 50 years? So, for example, if you believe that there will be an acute crisis in the next 5 - 10 years, but are reasonably optimistic we'll get through it, and will do well beyond that, you'd be in category A.
There really is a point to this --- and it ties somewhat to precious metals -- but that comes next.
For moment, where do you all fall? I am in category A. (with certain caveats)
@Higashiyama, I doubt many would offer a binary response to this question. I certainly can't even if I lean pessimistic at times. Instead, I would ask you whether any PM investments you have are directly rated to the caveats you allude to? Because if one were fully optimistic about the future of the US, they would not likely own any bullion.
At the Nebraska City coin show this last weekend, could have bought rolls of silver eagles.... at $30 per coin. Not sure if that is good or not; did not purchase them.
@Higashiyama Maybe you should start a poll in a new thread to track results.
Many unforeseen circumstances in the world and things certainly can change at any time. I like insurance and truth be told I've probably prepped myself better than many of the doomsayers. Expect the unexpected but live in reality, I guess. I'm in category A. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Silver has been all over the map the past 3 years from spot of 13 to 30 and ASE premiums from +1 to +16.
Crazy time to try to buy and sell. Holding out for spot around 40-50 and forgetting about the stupid premium game that has been played lately.
What's the multiple on 90% these days? Is 20X reasonable?
I knew it would happen.
L
Not now. Some bullion dealers are selling for under 18X. Buying at @ little over 15X. It is ugly.
I wouldn't pay anymore than 15x right now. The premiums are completely gone.
You got that right. I wouldn't buy gutter even with @derryb 's $$$. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
17.5 times face is what the LCS is asking now.
.> @blitzdude said:
.
You don't seem to like it here very much. If it is so great out there in your "real world", why do you spend time here "doom scrolling" ?
.
I remember when 90% silver premiums were low (near zero) and a $1,000 face value bag could be bought for $3,000. I had fun a few times buying such bags to do "roll hunting". I would pick out some nicer coins to keep and sell the rest. It was fun (the opposite of "ugly").
Keep dreaming Chaz! LULZ!
P.S. bless 'MERICA. PLS git on-boarde eye beg u!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Down to 50% now.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The above is from Nov 10, 2022. Notice the spot price at the time....within pennies of today. Yet premium on ASE is down $6!!!!
Imagine if we discussing another asset class such as equities, bonds or real estate and witnessed such a decline. Oh, the hyperbole!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Still way overpriced. Premiums on anything and everything not ASE have collapsed. Look for the trend to continue. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
This is a precious metals forum. So, naturally, other types of assets are not discussed as much here.
But all those other asset classes have also performed poorly, since interest rate hikes started in earnest.
Those asset classes have been discussed on this forum with fervent disdain and mockery when performing poorly. Yet when forum members discuss PMs in the same light they are ostracized. I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy...as I often do.
So let's go back to the beginning of this thread and reread the comments.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You sir are an asset to this forum. You continue to try to promote "Reality" while most everyone else continues to fixate one talking point. Bravo to you for your repeated attempts to keep the Collectors Universe Precious Metals Forum REAL! Enjoy the early gift that ole Phil got wrong again. I know you are enjoying that fresh spring air. RGDS!!!!!!!!!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
I haven’t bought any silver in a couple years as I have a decent pile saved up. I just went to apmex to get some rounds for my albums and was shocked at the premiums! $13 for an ASE. $20+ if you want a libertad or kookaburra. That’s crazy!
It may be hard for you to understand, but some people like physical precious metals, whether they go up or down in relation to USD. Gold, as an asset, has withstood the test of time, over 5,000+ years. Other assets (promises), not so much.
Some "assets" deserve the ridicule they receive. But contrary to your "fervent disdain and mockery" claim, I do not see that level of derision here very much.
Maybe if you posted your points of view about other assets in a less condescending way, people might receive it better ?
It may even be harder for some to understand that many people like other assets just as much as their precious metals. I for one like to diversify. I got gutter (paper and physical), gold, bitcoins, stocks, farm land, oil, nat gas, etc, Never put all the eggs in one basket so to speak. God bless The Commonwealth! RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
@dcarr:
I don't think there's disdain for the concept of holding physical metals (though it's been pointed out that there are potentially significant transaction costs, and also risks and costs associated with holding physical)
However, I think that a vocal subset of participants here have for quite some time promoted the following view:
The spot market is completely detached from the reality of the market for physical metals. Because traders can, with a few keystrokes, create electronic obligations for precious metals, these electronic obligations have no inherent value, and this leads to distortion and sometimes outright manipulation. This fact, combined with a growing demand for physical, leads to an ever growing gap between the physical and spot prices. Soon there will be a day of reckoning, and physical metal prices will go through the roof, leaving the COMEX vaults depleted and the market for the electronic representations in shambles.
Have I misrepresented this argument?
Does anyone on this board agree with the argument stated above?
Has anyone on this board who once agreed with this argument revised their view?
There are attempts (some successful) to manipulate all types of financial markets, usually for the benefit of those doing the meddling. This interference can cause the manipulated item to go up or down in value, and it is not limited to precious metals or even commodities. Stocks and bonds are also involved.
Over time it seems that traditional financial markets for stocks and bonds have become less authentic. For example, free markets should set interest rates - not the central-planning Federal Reserve. In times of distress, stock markets are propped up (manipulated) by major financial entities.
Those in charge do what they can to influence people away from accumulating physical commodities (including precious metals). They rather you "invest" in their products where they make money on the transaction (stocks, bonds, credit default swaps, etc., or even ETFs). If a major financial institution is proposing investment strategies to a pension fund (for example) they won't be mentioning asset classes (such as precious metals) where the financial institution won't be making any money off it.
So the market for physical precious metals is among the most authentic because the government and most major financial institutions don't care if the price for precious metal drops precipitously. They are not going to step in to prop up precious metals prices like they would with the stock market.
But every time they step in to prop up some segment of the markets or economy, it costs the Dollar some of its value.
A moderate, open-minded person free of biases, may view the purveyors of fear-mongering, doom and gloom narratives to influence people away from accumulating any asset other than PMs. Don't you read the blogs that derryb posts and the advertising embedded within? Preying on fears is the most insidious forms of influence. You think the sellers of PMs are not motives by profit?
The physical PM markets are very small and subject to massive manipulation. Just look at the premium manipulation presented in this thread. It's egregious. And wholly supported by many.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The sellers of physical precious metals to the general public are not really major financial institutions. Nothing like the big banks that own the Federal Reserve, for example.
The Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) is an influencing tactic used by stock market purveyors. So using "fear" to steer capital flows is not limited to physical precious metals. It is everywhere.
You used to claim that there was no manipulation in precious metals. But now you claim that premiums are manipulated ? Premiums are a result of supply and demand for fabricated items. Premiums are not "manipulated" or egregious. They are simply the result of market forces at the time.
There is plenty out there to be fearful of (or at least wary of). War, degradation of society, etc.
I see signs that consumer markets are in trouble. For example, this article (which is from the "mainstream" CNBC) about automobile loan delinquencies rising fast (26% higher than one year ago):
https://cnbc.com/2023/02/04/auto-loan-delinquencies-rise-what-to-do-if-you-struggle-with-payments.html
A 12 inch bass is a big fish in a pond full of guppies.
Didn't say it was limited. But is a main "fundamental" in the PM market.
I've always said the physical market and premiums are highly manipulated. Pay attention.
Don't be afraid.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
what is the point of this thread? I can't figure it out anymore
But it is necessary for them to care if the price of metals rises precipitiously. It interferes with them propping up the dollar and exposes fear in the future of the dollar.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
The only manipulation in the physical market is by market participants bidding up or down what they are willing to pay or what they are willing to sell for. All free markets, for this reason, are manipulated. Do not confuse free markets with those under the influence of artificial and even false market forces.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
@derryb: I’m honored to be mistaken for @dcarr, but the quote above attributed to me should be attributed to him.
apologies, corrected
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
what is the point of this thread? I can't figure it out anymore
Good question.
I knew it would happen.
No it doesn't.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.> @cohodk said:
>
You are the one who is "afraid". Why else would you need that big gun in your avatar ?
But in my estimation the fear levels out there are nowhere near high enough to buy stocks (or even real estate) at this time.
I think it better to wait for a "washout" (at least, as much a washout as the financial powers will allow).
And the smaller the market, the easier to manipulate. Glad you've finally realized the manipulation in the physical market.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
To trigger you?
Big hands need a big gun. Haha
I'm a little baffled as to your assumption though.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Ok fine, but spare us your life story
Some folk tried to connect premiums with something that wasn't true. They have been shown to be incorrect.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You've made the claim that the physical precious metals market is "manipulated".
The burden of proof is on you to explain who has done it, and how did they do it.
(1) Physical and cash markets converge over time. There are too many players to "manipulate" a market in any direction for any length of time in a material fashion. The markets are simply too big. If you don't believe that, go talk to Gabe Plotkin and Melvin Capital.
(2) Most institutions do not take positions on asset classes. They win by collecting fees. They are not in the business of betting the firm on market moves anymore than a bookie wants to bet on a team winning or losing; he just wants to collect his vig. Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers each bet the firm on asset price movements -- it didn't work out too well for them. And there was NO bailout of them, contrary to what demagogic politicians and ignorant journalists would have you believe.
(3) Fees for physical illiquid assets like gold are much higher than for gold or commodities. So if anything, institutions should be selling those. The fees are MUCH HIGHER than for stocks or bonds or other liquidly-traded asset classes.
(4) Wall Street doesn't tell pensions funds or hedge funds or SWFs what asset classes they want to invest in -- THEY tell Wall Street what they want to invest in. The notion that they are a bunch of country bumpkins being conned into buying expensive garbage is nonsense. This is a byproduct of a financially illiterate media and press (for the most part) comprised of Art History and Sociology and Journalism majors who don't know what they are writing about when they cover financial markets. Like having a Phys Ed major become a medical journal editor.
(5) I do believe that gold will hit $3,000 by 2030 if not sooner. But it won't be because of illegal shorting or manipulation or whatever. It will be because multiple marginal sources of demand will overcome whatever supply hits. Look for several up $100-$200 days in a row. When commodities or gold move, they move FAST.
(6) The reason the governments don't step in for commodities is because they do not represent SYSTEMIC risks to the financial system. They aren't important like they were 40+ years ago. In 1980, the gold market and the foreign exchange market traded about $1 billion each day. Today, gold trades about $50 billion daily -- and the foreign exchange market trades about $7 TRILLION each day. Bond and equity market daily volumes dwarf the gold market and other commodities. It's not a conspiracy, it's common sense.
Except even the smallest markets are too big for even the biggest banks to target. You would blow tens of billions of capital on such a move. CEOs and others would lose their jobs -- assuming they didn't blow up the bank (i.e., Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers).
Also, there's this little thing called regulators: The Fed.....Treasury....OCC.....FDIC...etc. They MIGHT want to talk to you if you decide you're going to go from being a banker to a Las Vegas casino.
Reread this thread.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Welcome aboard Goldfinger. You're gonna make a lot of friends here. Lol
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Kilo silver bars at APMEX are selling for $24.00/ounce this morning. Premium for them is not too bad at the moment.
The premium for US silver eagles (they are currently asking around $33/ounce) is still excessive and very hard to understand because there is plenty of supply.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set