@mintonlypls said:
The new normal...we are witnessing. It takes time to adjust to changes in the way of life. Eventually...we come around to accepting it. Exciting times in our hobby...enjoy!
Or, we can refuse to accept/obey and rage against that which we loathe. What you call exciting, others may outright despise.
true. and/or come to the realization that we didn't fully appreciate just how good we had it and respect it for that in its simplest form. there are times when things can both be good & bad at the same time. which one a person chooses to dwell on is completely up to them.
@fergie23 said:
Seeing Timbaland and Deshaun Watson on the list of investors changes the dynamics of the Instagram photo they posted with that Dwayne Johnson PSA 10 RC card. I am sure there is going to be a lot of money made going forward in cards but if anyone still believes this is organic demand from people stuck at home due to COVID they are just fooling themselves.
Robb
There was a mention on BO that Ken Goldin admitted that one of the two PSA 10 ‘86 Fleer Jordans that sold for 730k last week went to Timbaland.
@steel75 said:
"Non-collector" money is driving up prices. When they cash out & they will because they are only in it for profit, crazy card prices will settle back.
Yes, I agree. This is a speculator's market. Next time you search for a PSA graded card, look at the sold history and check out how often you see a recently sold card serial number reposted less than 90 days later for a 50% increase. I see it all the time and I am not even looking at big money cards.
@steel75 said:
"Non-collector" money is driving up prices. When they cash out & they will because they are only in it for profit, crazy card prices will settle back.
Yes, I agree. This is a speculator's market. Next time you search for a PSA graded card, look at the sold history and check out how often you see a recently sold card serial number reposted less than 90 days later for a 50% increase. I see it all the time and I am not even looking at big money cards.
If a card sells and then resells for a 50% bump do you think it is legit or card was never paid - first or second time. Wonder how many “sales” the money never changes hands? Not hard to do when bidder ID’s are now blocked and no trail can be followed like in 2016.
@steel75 said:
"Non-collector" money is driving up prices. When they cash out & they will because they are only in it for profit, crazy card prices will settle back.
Yes, I agree. This is a speculator's market. Next time you search for a PSA graded card, look at the sold history and check out how often you see a recently sold card serial number reposted less than 90 days later for a 50% increase. I see it all the time and I am not even looking at big money cards.
If a card sells and then resells for a 50% bump do you think it is legit or card was never paid - first or second time. Wonder how many “sales” the money never changes hands? Not hard to do when bidder ID’s are now blocked and no trail can be followed like in 2016.
I think many would be very surprised if the actual number of "fake" or "artificial" sales was ever revealed. It involves virtually no risk for those who try and manipulate the market. It happens everyday, and will continue to happen as there is no regulation.
And, yes the "Non-Collector" money will leave in due-time. Some think that these high-profile investors and celebrities are going to continue being active participants in the hobby. When in reality, they throw millions at numerous investments regularly. Look at their portfolios and you'll see a plethora of different interests that they have put money into. Their bottom-line is making money - Not collecting "cool" sports cards. They want "hobby folk" to think they actually care - that is marketing 101. (Think, most of these guys can call up Jordan or LeBron and hang out with them, you really think that they desperately need to have their RC in perfect condition and will spare no cost at getting one?)
Buy what you like and can live with losing money on, don't get caught up in the frenzy. Sometimes it is best to wait it out. Sell at unprecedented all-time highs if you can live without the card(s).
@steel75 said:
"Non-collector" money is driving up prices. When they cash out & they will because they are only in it for profit, crazy card prices will settle back.
Yes, I agree. This is a speculator's market. Next time you search for a PSA graded card, look at the sold history and check out how often you see a recently sold card serial number reposted less than 90 days later for a 50% increase. I see it all the time and I am not even looking at big money cards.
If a card sells and then resells for a 50% bump do you think it is legit or card was never paid - first or second time. Wonder how many “sales” the money never changes hands? Not hard to do when bidder ID’s are now blocked and no trail can be followed like in 2016.
Different sellers when the cards are reposted - not proof, but another indicator. Plus, if you are going to really try to manipulate, would you waste time on $50 cards? IMO, people are buying, holding, and reposting after a few weeks for a profit. As a happy capitalist, I have no issue with it except to point out that it is a speculator's market. It makes the collector in me hesitant to go after bigger ticket items right now, that's all.
Makes you wonder as well with the TON of cards PSA has to get graded and the crazy prices on most, what will happen when the population explodes on certain cards when they do get graded.
I wouldn't necessarily be concerned about a population explosion on certain cards as demand has also increased. I'd be more concerned of the newbies sending in "sure thing 10's" and receiving 8's. They are going to be so disappointed whenever their grades pop.
I see a few things happening. If this new money in the hobby is willing to spend at these levels people will start selling that are long time collectors. I checked VCP for a few cards and prices are getting insane. Mantle cards have always been strong, but we are seeing a huge run up in prices for all grades and years. Cards doubling in price in low to mid grades, and seeing Aaron cards with a big increase due to his passing as well. Assume these are all legit, but also have to think there is some funny business going on. Lots of cards being sold by the same few characters in the hobby with no confirmation of payment or bidder info. Sell it from a safe or vault with no idea who the seller is or the buyer, and why could you not possibly influence pricing. Same cards sold by individuals on eBay go for 30-40% less - puzzling.
Here is an example I found checking random cards on VCP. Card has sold for $1400 on average and a high of $1700 overall. This one just went for $3300+. How? Top two corners are not just rounded but looks like one has been chewed on
@sayheywyo said:
I wouldn't necessarily be concerned about a population explosion on certain cards as demand has also increased. I'd be more concerned of the newbies sending in "sure thing 10's" and receiving 8's. They are going to be so disappointed whenever their grades pop.
Which came first? The demand or the crazy profit people were getting because the prices spiked and now people(not collectors) wanted them.
I can't think of a collectible that had more available in the marketplace and the prices stayed the same.
Those T206's that were found in an attic in Ohio that came back with nice grades had to be sold slowly or it was going to screw the current prices of those cards if all of them went to market.
@KendallCat said:
I see a few things happening. If this new money in the hobby is willing to spend at these levels people will start selling that are long time collectors. I checked VCP for a few cards and prices are getting insane. Mantle cards have always been strong, but we are seeing a huge run up in prices for all grades and years. Cards doubling in price in low to mid grades, and seeing Aaron cards with a big increase due to his passing as well. Assume these are all legit, but also have to think there is some funny business going on. Lots of cards being sold by the same few characters in the hobby with no confirmation of payment or bidder info. Sell it from a safe or vault with no idea who the seller is or the buyer, and why could you not possibly influence pricing. Same cards sold by individuals on eBay go for 30-40% less - puzzling.
Here is an example I found checking random cards on VCP. Card has sold for $1400 on average and a high of $1700 overall. This one just went for $3300+. How? Top two corners are not just rounded but looks like one has been chewed on
i'm sure there is some "credible" reliability from newbs jumping in on the graded card market. there's also the vault and lack of applicable sales tax option along w the fancy sticker premium. you gotta figure a lot of these guys are probably getting the scare tactic and horror stories about buying graded cards online from "unknown" sellers from some of these major ebay consignors. all of those market indices, vault pics, s&o charts are like eye candy to some of these new players. not saying that's the reason for this particular card, but just a personal observation that places like pwcc are probably considered a very safe buying outlet considering their overall strategic & on-line store"front" marketing. it automatically attracts new money and prolly directs it to its own inventory. pretty fancy net to catch the new fish, i guess.
@steel75 said: Which came first? The demand or the crazy profit people were getting because the prices spiked and now people(not collectors) wanted them.
I can't think of a collectible that had more available in the marketplace and the prices stayed the same.
Those T206's that were found in an attic in Ohio that came back with nice grades had to be sold slowly or it was going to screw the current prices of those cards if all of them went to market.
In what we are experiencing----- the crazy profit. The lure of easy money. There is still a ton of ungraded first 3 year Jordans and UD Griffeys out there. Do I think Griffey is a 4K card? No, but not 300 anymore, supply will increase, demand will still be there and a "new" price point will be established higher than previously.
The main point of my post is there are going to be a lot of "new players" that subbed cards with high expectations of huge profits that are going to be disappointed.
As a collector, I just remain patient and determine what I'm willing to pay for a certain want, move forward and never look back.
As these prices continue to rise, the fear of missing out becomes more pronounced amongst some collectors (raising hand here). And it takes some of us out of that band of disciplined price range that we are willing to pay for an item. There are cards and boxes that I will likely never own given what’s transpired. So I’m hoping to add some inventory where pricing seems reasonable based on my perception of future supply/demand.
John
Conundrum - Loving my unopened baseball card collection....but really like ripping too
I agree with NJ80s, I continue to buy cards even though everything is 2-3 times what it cost 2 months ago. Basically everything I collect and am looking to buy has at least doubled in a few months. I feel like the prices aren't sustainable but I also thought that after COVID hit and cards went nuts.
Top 30% for the grade....amazing he can continue to pull this off. That card is a 4/5
@KendallCat said:
I see a few things happening. If this new money in the hobby is willing to spend at these levels people will start selling that are long time collectors. I checked VCP for a few cards and prices are getting insane. Mantle cards have always been strong, but we are seeing a huge run up in prices for all grades and years. Cards doubling in price in low to mid grades, and seeing Aaron cards with a big increase due to his passing as well. Assume these are all legit, but also have to think there is some funny business going on. Lots of cards being sold by the same few characters in the hobby with no confirmation of payment or bidder info. Sell it from a safe or vault with no idea who the seller is or the buyer, and why could you not possibly influence pricing. Same cards sold by individuals on eBay go for 30-40% less - puzzling.
Here is an example I found checking random cards on VCP. Card has sold for $1400 on average and a high of $1700 overall. This one just went for $3300+. How? Top two corners are not just rounded but looks like one has been chewed on
@KendallCat said:
I see a few things happening. If this new money in the hobby is willing to spend at these levels people will start selling that are long time collectors. I checked VCP for a few cards and prices are getting insane. Mantle cards have always been strong, but we are seeing a huge run up in prices for all grades and years. Cards doubling in price in low to mid grades, and seeing Aaron cards with a big increase due to his passing as well. Assume these are all legit, but also have to think there is some funny business going on. Lots of cards being sold by the same few characters in the hobby with no confirmation of payment or bidder info. Sell it from a safe or vault with no idea who the seller is or the buyer, and why could you not possibly influence pricing. Same cards sold by individuals on eBay go for 30-40% less - puzzling.
Here is an example I found checking random cards on VCP. Card has sold for $1400 on average and a high of $1700 overall. This one just went for $3300+. How? Top two corners are not just rounded but looks like one has been chewed on
You have to pick & choose filling your want list items.
What is the likelihood it's going to be available to buy cheaper later this year, next year, 2 years?
Shift gears, wait it out, look for the opportunities; when you see your whale item, you usually gotta harpoon it
@NJ80sBBC said:
As these prices continue to rise, the fear of missing out becomes more pronounced amongst some collectors (raising hand here). And it takes some of us out of that band of disciplined price range that we are willing to pay for an item. There are cards and boxes that I will likely never own given what’s transpired. So I’m hoping to add some inventory where pricing seems reasonable based on my perception of future supply/demand.
John
Totally agree with this. I was selling off my unwanted collection to finance a much smaller subset I wanted to collect. But with prices rising so fast, I can't wait to sell off $1000 of mid-grade cards to buy a single $1000 high-grade card, because by the time I do, that $1000 card may be $3000. So I've had to buy ahead of my sales.
That said, I do set a personal rule never to pay more than the highest previous auction price. I'm fine paying more if I have to. I just don't want to be the one paying the most.
Edited to say I have occasionally broken my own rule. LOL.
I will say this having been in many hobbies over the years; When speculators exit a hobby, can be impacted for year or decades. In case of Comic Books it took almost a decade to recover from the 1993-1995 bottoming out, then another decade for the next boom (20+ years after the last boom) and in the case of new product sales never and will never recover. While new product sales were impacted by much more the first stake through the heart was the 90's bust leaving that portion of the hobby on the critical list.
Will that happen with cards, specifically non prime super high supply cards? It's not if, but when. Could be weeks, month or years but the larger the boom the larger bust.
True Blue Chip, truly rare, truly in demand items typically are least (or not) affected by a bear market. Since mentioned already in this topic of all 1990's Baseball Cards the 1993 SP Jeter in PSA9 or 10 is what I alone feel meets True Blue Chip Criteria. The numbers for that card in 9 or 10 have barely increased in 2 years and given how condition sensitive it is I do not think that will change.
Conversely on the 1990 Baseball Card front there are too many "fools gold" cards to mention but lets take one of my absolute favorite cards of the decade, the 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas; currently approx 3700 in PSA10! If that number continues to trend as it has last 2 years that will double in next 2 years. Perhaps faster as I'm sure piles of them sent into PSA since last summer with more on the way.
When a bust occurs their will be no more $150 PSA10 1986 Fleer Cecil Fielder Rookie or $150 PSA10 1993 Bowman Andy Pettitte Rookie cards selling on eBay. Just using those as examples of non HOF , non blue-chip cards. Going back to the early 80s one might also include 1981/1982/1983 Fleer and Donruss just look at the PSA10 Pops of those card! Due to their sky High populations in PSA10 will cards like even Sandberg or Gywnn or Ripken rookies from those sets escape a bust unscathed? I just don't see them maintaining most of their current going rate in a bear market as they are neither as hard to find in PSA10 nor have the cachet of their Topps counterparts.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
@NJ80sBBC said:
As these prices continue to rise, the fear of missing out becomes more pronounced amongst some collectors (raising hand here). And it takes some of us out of that band of disciplined price range that we are willing to pay for an item. There are cards and boxes that I will likely never own given what’s transpired. So I’m hoping to add some inventory where pricing seems reasonable based on my perception of future supply/demand.
John
Totally agree with this. I was selling off my unwanted collection to finance a much smaller subset I wanted to collect. But with prices rising so fast, I can't wait to sell off $1000 of mid-grade cards to buy a single $1000 high-grade card, because by the time I do, that $1000 card may be $3000. So I've had to buy ahead of my sales.
That said, I do set a personal rule never to pay more than the highest previous auction price. I'm fine paying more if I have to. I just don't want to be the one paying the most.
Edited to say I have occasionally broken my own rule. LOL.
I usually follow that rule as well. Fortunately I violated it several years ago when I was the first person to pay more than $10k for a PSA 8 1955 Clemente RC
All I can say is I have been wrong in predicting the length of this value cycle for sportscards. The influx of new investment money has changed the "hobby" drastically in terms of being affordable to the average collector. I find myself buying far less because I still want the quality that makes up my collection at a price I can afford. What has been good for me is selling stuff I bought 20 years ago on eBay that was a bit speculative on my part. Last year I couldn't get a $9.99 starting bid on eBay for most of it so I quit listing it. Now I put it out and am getting $20-$40 for stuff I paid half of that back when.
Several years ago I saved my eBay profits for three years wanting to buy a 1952 Topps Mantle in a PSA 2 that would look decent. The more I saved the more the price went up. Finally, at the 2015 National I negotiated one for $14,900. The next year the price of a PSA 2 went down and I thought...well I do have a nice Mantle even if I overpaid. Now in this market I can easily double my money if I wanted to so, probably more.
So the increased value of cards in demand continues to escalate and I don't see it stopping soon. But history of the hobby tells us that like the stock market there will be a period of adjustment at some point. There will be the last person to pay $100,000 for a young basketball player only to find when they want to flip it that there will be a loss not a profit and then the price will diminish and at some point settle on an established value. My concern is that for many collectors with limited discretionary money the market is tough to negotiate in terms of collecting what is their interest/passion.
@PSARich said:
So the increased value of cards in demand continues to escalate and I don't see it stopping soon. But history of the hobby tells us that like the stock market there will be a period of adjustment at some point. There will be the last person to pay $100,000 for a young basketball player only to find when they want to flip it that there will be a loss not a profit and then the price will diminish and at some point settle on an established value.
Exactly. When folks takes losses they jump ship. Could be something as simple as career ending injury of a young player causing the card to drop to near 0. In the case of a 100K card that is a large drop. When speculators leave a hobby the people who were priced out don't necessarily return. Those do who return do not do so simultaneously thus creating a price vacuum.
Here's the thing about speculators; they always leave and when they do so damage is always left in the wake. The only question is how much damage.
My opinion on any non-Blue Chip right now Sell, Sell, Sell before most have their vaccines. I still strongly contend the only current non purposely limited "regular issue" 1990's Blue Chip Baseball Card is the 93 SP Jeter in PSA 9 or above. I'd guess an 8.5 is close enough to be "quasi" Blue Chip, and a 8 is hold, wait and see.
Of course I could be totally wrong, and if so I'll eat crow, but history and the very nature (gets whilst the gettin' is good) of Speculators is on my side.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
@PSARich said:
So the increased value of cards in demand continues to escalate and I don't see it stopping soon. But history of the hobby tells us that like the stock market there will be a period of adjustment at some point. There will be the last person to pay $100,000 for a young basketball player only to find when they want to flip it that there will be a loss not a profit and then the price will diminish and at some point settle on an established value.
Exactly. When folks takes losses, they jump ship. Could be something as simple as career ending injury of a young player causing the card to drop to near 0. In the case of a 100K card that is a large drop. When speculators leave a hobby the people who were priced out don't necessarily return. Those do who return do not do so simultaneously thus creating a price vacuum.
Here's the thing about speculators; they always leave and when they do so damage is always left in their wake. The only question is how much damage.
My opinion on any non-Blue Chip right now Sell, Sell, Sell before most have their vaccines. I still strongly contend the only current non purposely limited "regular issue" 1990's Blue Chip Baseball Card is the 93 SP Jeter in PSA 9 or above. I'd guess an 8.5 is close enough to be "quasi" Blue Chip, and a 8 is hold, wait and see.
Of course I could be totally wrong but history and the very nature (gets whilst the gettin' is good) of Speculators is on my side.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
@PSARich said:
So the increased value of cards in demand continues to escalate and I don't see it stopping soon. But history of the hobby tells us that like the stock market there will be a period of adjustment at some point. There will be the last person to pay $100,000 for a young basketball player only to find when they want to flip it that there will be a loss not a profit and then the price will diminish and at some point settle on an established value.
Exactly. When folks takes losses, they jump ship. Could be something as simple as career ending injury of a young player causing the card to drop to near 0. In the case of a 100K card that is a large drop. When speculators leave a hobby the people who were priced out don't necessarily return. Those do who return do not do so simultaneously thus creating a price vacuum.
Here's the thing about speculators; they always leave and when they do so damage is always left in their wake. The only question is how much damage.
My opinion on any non-Blue Chip right now Sell, Sell, Sell before most have their vaccines. I still strongly contend the only current non purposely limited "regular issue" 1990's Blue Chip Baseball Card is the 93 SP Jeter in PSA 9 or above. I'd guess an 8.5 is close enough to be "quasi" Blue Chip, and a 8 is hold, wait and see.
Of course I could be totally wrong but history and the very nature (gets whilst the gettin' is good) of Speculators is on my side.
(Still holding 😂)
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
I don't think this is like the 1990's at all. In the 1990's, it was basically just the new stuff going crazy, not everything across the board like now. The problem was that the new stuff was grossly overproduced and that is why it went down.
There are a lot of things at play right now.
Inflation is here and has been creeping up. The people in charge use numbers to hide it, but it is here. It is only going to worsen too.
Influx of investors is true. Who is to say that they will leave en mass? Some will cash out at some point, but like anything else, one man's idea of bottom is another man's idea of a buying opportunity for the next run up. Many of those investors may stay as well. They may actually like being immersed in this industry. Nobody knows that answer for sure.
New collectors. If just 1% of our population are collectors, and the supply is doesn't change, then what happens if that number creeps up to just 1.46%? I don't know those actual figures, but any change upward can have a huge effect on the prices for something with a set supply such as vintage cards.
It isn't just an increase in in buyers in our our country either. Sports is becoming more and more global with each passing year, and we have just scratched the surface on that market.
The covid factor. Covid created an influx of new investors into the stock market. That is real. People have addictive personalities, and when they get a taste of something that makes their body's 'tingle' such as gambling, stocks, and investing incards, they may actually double down. Once you are hooked, you are in. The rush of making thousands of dollars on stocks or cards gives the body a craving for more. That doesn't just go away.
The term "new normal" has made me want to vomit this past year, so I won't use that term for this thread. But I will say that covid has given people exposure to new markets and new ways of directing their attention and money. Some will leave, but many will be hooked for life. In an industry with a set supply, all it takes is a small percentage of new buyers to make a huge and lasting impact on prices.
Speculation is driving the market in my opinion. Super high end, record sales are not part of this trend however. The guy who pays $1M for a card that was previously selling for $100k or something is probably not going to try to flip it. They just have the f-u money to buy whatever the heck they want because of reasons. If that is the case, that inventory is no longer part of the float and the market can move independently of it.
I would think that the majority of speculation occurs in the mid-range where you can turn a card around for a quick $500 or $1k profit. The upfront investment/risk is manageable and the reward over time can be substantial. This attracts the speculators who sell to each other or the occasional collector. Its a game of hot potato. Sooner or later, they will exit the market and there will be bag holders.
I have the feeling that the Summer might be the turning point. As people start to get a breath of fresh, free air after a year of COVID, they will turn to other interests...maybe that Jeep upgrade they wanted to do or that motorcycle purchase or maybe they are eyeing a new bow rider they can take their long lost friends out on. We will see.
I think that social media is a MASSIVE factor in the hobby right now. I was around for the early 1990s, and that was fun. But once you bought your cards, you took them home and that was basically it. Now people go online and show off their cards to all of their followers (hundreds? thousands? more?). That keeps the hobby on people's minds constantly, which I'm sure contributes to growing prices. Not to mention the breaker culture, which builds social media/online communities and encourages people to basically play the lottery together via trading cards.
Those things coupled with all of the elements already mentioned makes me think we are in this for a long time. Prices likely won't stay as sky high and increasing weekly (daily?), but I also don't see them dropping to anywhere near March 2020 levels ever again.
Todd Tobias - Grateful Collector - I focus on autographed American Football League sets, Fleer & Topps, 1960-1969, and lacrosse cards.
@AFLfan said:
I think that social media is a MASSIVE factor in the hobby right now. I was around for the early 1990s, and that was fun. But once you bought your cards, you took them home and that was basically it. Now people go online and show off their cards to all of their followers (hundreds? thousands? more?). That keeps the hobby on people's minds constantly, which I'm sure contributes to growing prices. Not to mention the breaker culture, which builds social media/online communities and encourages people to basically play the lottery together via trading cards.
Those things coupled with all of the elements already mentioned makes me think we are in this for a long time. Prices likely won't stay as sky high and increasing weekly (daily?), but I also don't see them dropping to anywhere near March 2020 levels ever again.
Oh man how true. I've been in facebook groups where people show pictures of cards or unopened packs and somehow it looks more attractive even though you have seen the card a million times, and it makes you want to buy one.
Prices are rising everywhere. I get a kick out of McDonald's dollar menu. By dollar, they mean $1.49, not a dollar like it really was recently....and then they give you two ounces less worth of fries on top of the price increase. That is like that all over the place.
If I could have bought 100,000 orders of small fries from McDonald's two years ago and kept them, then I would have made a lot of money on them today . Same premise.
Then imagine if an influx of new french fry buyers came into being...and mcdonalds couldn't keep enough fries in their store, then prices would go even higher.
Prices may bounce here and there, but long term, they are headed higher...unless there is a civil war or something catastrophic.
@1948_Swell_Robinson said:
Prices are rising everywhere. I get a kick out of McDonald's dollar menu. By dollar, they mean $1.49, not a dollar like it really was recently....and then they give you two ounces less worth of fries on top of the price increase. That is like that all over the place.
If I could have bought 100,000 orders of small fries from McDonald's two years ago and kept them, then I would have made a lot of money on them today . Same premise.
Then imagine if an influx of new french fry buyers came into being...and mcdonalds couldn't keep enough fries in their store, then prices would go even higher.
Prices may bounce here and there, but long term, they are headed higher...unless there is a civil war or something catastrophic.
If you're even close to right, and I have no reason to doubt you on a macro scale and plenty of anecdotal evidence in support, then inflation is present in numbers far greater than the Fed targets or can comprehend.
@1948_Swell_Robinson said:
I don't think this is like the 1990's at all. In the 1990's, it was basically just the new stuff going crazy, not everything across the board like now. The problem was that the new stuff was grossly overproduced and that is why it went down.
I would make one observation...if you were making any efforts at all in the last 2 or three years to buy "popular" boxes of sports cards, whether those were basketball, football, or even baseball, at retail outlets like Walmart or Target, you probably have a decent handle on perceived production. This year compared to the last year or two, companies like Panini appear to have significantly increased their production. I have heard from some dealers that Topps has required some brick and mortar shops to buy twice what they bought last year in terms of cases of new product. That all suggests to me, at least anecdotally, that the companies are fully aware of the present boom and are adjusting accordingly. I will be interested in the next 5-10 years to see what those production totals look like (which we may never know, but might gain some insight into through POP reports on graded cards.) If companies are ramping up production like I suspect they are, then some of the folks buying large quantities of the new stuff might be in for a rude awakening eventually. Card companies are businesses, and they are not ignorant of the boom happening right now. For the most part they don't benefit from a $50,000 card being found in one of their blasters, other than the fact that everything they produce that potentially houses such a card gets snapped up immediately. Their only way to take advantage of the boom is to ramp up production. I suspect there is more of that happening right now than we know.
@1948_Swell_Robinson said:
I don't think this is like the 1990's at all. In the 1990's, it was basically just the new stuff going crazy, not everything across the board like now. The problem was that the new stuff was grossly overproduced and that is why it went down.
I would make one observation...if you were making any efforts at all in the last 2 or three years to buy "popular" boxes of sports cards, whether those were basketball, football, or even baseball, at retail outlets like Walmart or Target, you probably have a decent handle on perceived production. This year compared to the last year or two, companies like Panini appear to have significantly increased their production. I have heard from some dealers that Topps has required some brick and mortar shops to buy twice what they bought last year in terms of cases of new product. That all suggests to me, at least anecdotally, that the companies are fully aware of the present boom and are adjusting accordingly. I will be interested in the next 5-10 years to see what those production totals look like (which we may never know, but might gain some insight into through POP reports on graded cards.) If companies are ramping up production like I suspect they are, then some of the folks buying large quantities of the new stuff might be in for a rude awakening eventually. Card companies are businesses, and they are not ignorant of the boom happening right now. For the most part they don't benefit from a $50,000 card being found in one of their blasters, other than the fact that everything they produce that potentially houses such a card gets snapped up immediately. Their only way to take advantage of the boom is to ramp up production. I suspect there is more of that happening right now than we know.
Just my two cents.
kevin
Interesting. I guess the moral of the story is that stuff being made now will be the one to take the hit in any future price drop.
@AFLfan said:
Interesting. I guess the moral of the story is that stuff being made now will be the one to take the hit in any future price drop.
Anything that has high graded populations in effect regardless of year. Law of "Supply and Demand" eventually always reign. I'm wary of any card post 1979 that has PSA10 Populations greater than 2500 and especially greater than 3500 , it does not take much of loss of interest for those cards to quickly go down in price.
Take the 1992 Bowman Mariano Rivera, bar none my favorite of all Baseball players who had a 1990's rookie card. There are 1400 of these currently in PSA10. Early in Feb they were $1900-2100 on eBay now 40% less. By year end there may be over 2000 in PSA10. A popular NY player and considered/consensus by experts to be single best relief pitcher in MLB history, not to mention a class act. If demand is unable to sustain price with 1400 PSA10's then what happens when that PSA10 number increases even more?
1990 Frank Thomas, yeah I've brought up one of my favorite 1990's cards before; there are over 3750 of them. By this time next year no way that number is not over 4000 and highly likely it is over 5000 in PSA10. No telling how many of these Junk Wax era cards are currently sitting and waiting in a PSA warehouse to receive their PSA10 slabs. Sometime next year which is more feasible the cards is $200 or less as it was as recently as Dec 2020 or is it at $1000+. I'd bet heavily at $200 or less mark
My opinion avoid HIGH PSA10 population 1980's, 1990's, 2000's,2010's cards at current prices. It's a question of **when not if ** they drop or sink like a stone.
I do realize posts like this may upset or anger some sellers, dealers, and card market manipulators but the law of "Supply and Demand" is proven fact over a millennium and one of the very tenets of economics.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
@AFLfan said:
Interesting. I guess the moral of the story is that stuff being made now will be the one to take the hit in any future price drop.
Anything that has high graded populations in effect regardless of year. Law of "Supply and Demand" eventually always reign. I'm wary of any card post 1979 that has PSA10 Populations greater than 2500 and especially greater than 3500 , it does not take much of loss of interest for those cards to quickly go down in price.
Take the 1992 Bowman Mariano Rivera, bar none my favorite of all Baseball players who had a 1990's rookie card. There are 1400 of these currently in PSA10. Early in Feb they were $1900-2100 on eBay now 40% less. By year end there may be over 2000 in PSA10. A popular NY player and considered/consensus by experts to be single best relief pitcher in MLB history, not to mention a class act. If demand is unable to sustain price with 1400 PSA10's then what happens when that PSA10 number increases even more?
1990 Frank Thomas, yeah I've brought up one of my favorite 1990's cards before; there are over 3750 of them. By this time next year no way that number is not over 4000 and highly likely it is over 5000 in PSA10. No telling how many of these Junk Wax era cards are currently sitting and waiting in a PSA warehouse to receive their PSA10 slabs. Sometime next year which is more feasible the cards is $200 or less as it was as recently as Dec 2020 or is it at $1000+. I'd bet heavily at $200 or less mark
My opinion avoid HIGH PSA10 population 1980's, 1990's, 2000's,2010's cards at current prices. It's a question of **when not if ** they drop or sink like a stone.
I do realize posts like this may upset or anger some sellers, dealers, and card market manipulators but the law of "Supply and Demand" is proven fact over a millennium and one of the very tenets of economics.
All good points. I've talked about how supply is set in vintage cards, but in cases you have pointed out, the supply has a lot of potential of getting higher. I agree, I don't know if the demand for PSA 10 Frank Thomas rookies will grow as fast as that supply may grow, hence why rarities of iconic players is usually a safer bet.
My opinion avoid HIGH PSA10 population 1980's, 1990's, 2000's,2010's cards at current prices. It's a question of **when not if ** they drop or sink like a stone.
I do realize posts like this may upset or anger some sellers, dealers, and card market manipulators but the law of "Supply and Demand" is proven fact over a millennium and one of the very tenets of economics.
I agree completely. We’re in the middle of another ‘junk wax’ era where the junk is the overpopulated PSA 10 cards. This is an asset bubble clear as day. All the things we’re all saying are the exact same things that have been said in every asset bubble in history. When the dust settles, my opinion is that the low pop PSA 10s will retain a great deal of their value but the high pop ones that everyone is buying are going to be worth very little.
@AFLfan said:
I think that social media is a MASSIVE factor in the hobby right now. I was around for the early 1990s, and that was fun. But once you bought your cards, you took them home and that was basically it. Now people go online and show off their cards to all of their followers (hundreds? thousands? more?). That keeps the hobby on people's minds constantly, which I'm sure contributes to growing prices. Not to mention the breaker culture, which builds social media/online communities and encourages people to basically play the lottery together via trading cards.
Those things coupled with all of the elements already mentioned makes me think we are in this for a long time. Prices likely won't stay as sky high and increasing weekly (daily?), but I also don't see them dropping to anywhere near March 2020 levels ever again.
That is so true. I am continually amazed at the amount of money people will invest to watch other people open packs of cards on Youtube. In some cases, they don't even get the cards, they just donate cards or give money to support the breaker. Then there are NFT's which is a whole new platform.
@PSARich said:
So the increased value of cards in demand continues to escalate and I don't see it stopping soon. But history of the hobby tells us that like the stock market there will be a period of adjustment at some point. There will be the last person to pay $100,000 for a young basketball player only to find when they want to flip it that there will be a loss not a profit and then the price will diminish and at some point settle on an established value.
Exactly. When folks takes losses, they jump ship. Could be something as simple as career ending injury of a young player causing the card to drop to near 0. In the case of a 100K card that is a large drop. When speculators leave a hobby the people who were priced out don't necessarily return. Those do who return do not do so simultaneously thus creating a price vacuum.
Here's the thing about speculators; they always leave and when they do so damage is always left in their wake. The only question is how much damage.
My opinion on any non-Blue Chip right now Sell, Sell, Sell before most have their vaccines. I still strongly contend the only current non purposely limited "regular issue" 1990's Blue Chip Baseball Card is the 93 SP Jeter in PSA 9 or above. I'd guess an 8.5 is close enough to be "quasi" Blue Chip, and a 8 is hold, wait and see.
Of course I could be totally wrong but history and the very nature (gets whilst the gettin' is good) of Speculators is on my side.
(Still holding 😂)
How 'bout now 😂
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
@82FootballWaxMemorys said:
I will say this having been in many hobbies over the years; When speculators exit a hobby, can be impacted for year or decades. In case of Comic Books it took almost a decade to recover from the 1993-1995 bottoming out, then another decade for the next boom (20+ years after the last boom) and in the case of new product sales never and will never recover. While new product sales were impacted by much more the first stake through the heart was the 90's bust leaving that portion of the hobby on the critical list.
Will that happen with cards, specifically non prime super high supply cards? It's not if, but when. Could be weeks, month or years but the larger the boom the larger bust.
True Blue Chip, truly rare, truly in demand items typically are least (or not) affected by a bear market. Since mentioned already in this topic of all 1990's Baseball Cards the 1993 SP Jeter in PSA9 or 10 is what I alone feel meets True Blue Chip Criteria. The numbers for that card in 9 or 10 have barely increased in 2 years and given how condition sensitive it is I do not think that will change.
Conversely on the 1990 Baseball Card front there are too many "fools gold" cards to mention but lets take one of my absolute favorite cards of the decade, the 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas; currently approx 3700 in PSA10! If that number continues to trend as it has last 2 years that will double in next 2 years. Perhaps faster as I'm sure piles of them sent into PSA since last summer with more on the way.
When a bust occurs their will be no more $150 PSA10 1986 Fleer Cecil Fielder Rookie or $150 PSA10 1993 Bowman Andy Pettitte Rookie cards selling on eBay. Just using those as examples of non HOF , non blue-chip cards. Going back to the early 80s one might also include 1981/1982/1983 Fleer and Donruss just look at the PSA10 Pops of those card! Due to their sky High populations in PSA10 will cards like even Sandberg or Gywnn or Ripken rookies from those sets escape a bust unscathed? I just don't see them maintaining most of their current going rate in a bear market as they are neither as hard to find in PSA10 nor have the cachet of their Topps counterparts.
Update: I was totally right!
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Comments
true. and/or come to the realization that we didn't fully appreciate just how good we had it and respect it for that in its simplest form. there are times when things can both be good & bad at the same time. which one a person chooses to dwell on is completely up to them.
There was a mention on BO that Ken Goldin admitted that one of the two PSA 10 ‘86 Fleer Jordans that sold for 730k last week went to Timbaland.
Eric
Erikthredd’s MJ Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/publishedset/395035
Erikthredd’s Nike Air Jordan Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/basketball/key-card-sets/nike-poster-cards-michael-jordan-1985-1992/alltimeset/408486
Yes, I agree. This is a speculator's market. Next time you search for a PSA graded card, look at the sold history and check out how often you see a recently sold card serial number reposted less than 90 days later for a 50% increase. I see it all the time and I am not even looking at big money cards.
I’m OK with that. Let them take their profit and move on.
Now back to our regularly scheduled programming and our hobby - with modest +/- changes as the markets blow.
If a card sells and then resells for a 50% bump do you think it is legit or card was never paid - first or second time. Wonder how many “sales” the money never changes hands? Not hard to do when bidder ID’s are now blocked and no trail can be followed like in 2016.
I'm still cornering the market on Dick Pole and Rusty Kuntz ROOKIES. If the surge doesn't come I'll be stuck in a deep hole.......
To your original question, 86 and 87 MJs do seem a little softer.
But do you have them in unopened form??? THAT is the true gold mine!
kevin
I think many would be very surprised if the actual number of "fake" or "artificial" sales was ever revealed. It involves virtually no risk for those who try and manipulate the market. It happens everyday, and will continue to happen as there is no regulation.
And, yes the "Non-Collector" money will leave in due-time. Some think that these high-profile investors and celebrities are going to continue being active participants in the hobby. When in reality, they throw millions at numerous investments regularly. Look at their portfolios and you'll see a plethora of different interests that they have put money into. Their bottom-line is making money - Not collecting "cool" sports cards. They want "hobby folk" to think they actually care - that is marketing 101. (Think, most of these guys can call up Jordan or LeBron and hang out with them, you really think that they desperately need to have their RC in perfect condition and will spare no cost at getting one?)
Buy what you like and can live with losing money on, don't get caught up in the frenzy. Sometimes it is best to wait it out. Sell at unprecedented all-time highs if you can live without the card(s).
Different sellers when the cards are reposted - not proof, but another indicator. Plus, if you are going to really try to manipulate, would you waste time on $50 cards? IMO, people are buying, holding, and reposting after a few weeks for a profit. As a happy capitalist, I have no issue with it except to point out that it is a speculator's market. It makes the collector in me hesitant to go after bigger ticket items right now, that's all.
Makes you wonder as well with the TON of cards PSA has to get graded and the crazy prices on most, what will happen when the population explodes on certain cards when they do get graded.
I wouldn't necessarily be concerned about a population explosion on certain cards as demand has also increased. I'd be more concerned of the newbies sending in "sure thing 10's" and receiving 8's. They are going to be so disappointed whenever their grades pop.
Never thought I'd be battling someone else for control of the Rusty Kuntz RCs.
On another note, get ready for another surge in pricing once these $1400 stimulus check arrive.
Spot on. Who knows how many people who get a stimulus check might choose to spend all or part on collectibles they might otherwise not buy?
By the looks of things in this market it seems the answer is quite a few.
I see a few things happening. If this new money in the hobby is willing to spend at these levels people will start selling that are long time collectors. I checked VCP for a few cards and prices are getting insane. Mantle cards have always been strong, but we are seeing a huge run up in prices for all grades and years. Cards doubling in price in low to mid grades, and seeing Aaron cards with a big increase due to his passing as well. Assume these are all legit, but also have to think there is some funny business going on. Lots of cards being sold by the same few characters in the hobby with no confirmation of payment or bidder info. Sell it from a safe or vault with no idea who the seller is or the buyer, and why could you not possibly influence pricing. Same cards sold by individuals on eBay go for 30-40% less - puzzling.
Here is an example I found checking random cards on VCP. Card has sold for $1400 on average and a high of $1700 overall. This one just went for $3300+. How? Top two corners are not just rounded but looks like one has been chewed on
American philosopher Mitch Hedberg once opined:
Acid is my favorite drug, it opened my mind. Because of acid I now know that butter is way better than margarine. I saw through the bulls***.
Don’t recommend that first bit but highly endorse that last bit.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
Which came first? The demand or the crazy profit people were getting because the prices spiked and now people(not collectors) wanted them.
I can't think of a collectible that had more available in the marketplace and the prices stayed the same.
Those T206's that were found in an attic in Ohio that came back with nice grades had to be sold slowly or it was going to screw the current prices of those cards if all of them went to market.
i'm sure there is some "credible" reliability from newbs jumping in on the graded card market. there's also the vault and lack of applicable sales tax option along w the fancy sticker premium. you gotta figure a lot of these guys are probably getting the scare tactic and horror stories about buying graded cards online from "unknown" sellers from some of these major ebay consignors. all of those market indices, vault pics, s&o charts are like eye candy to some of these new players. not saying that's the reason for this particular card, but just a personal observation that places like pwcc are probably considered a very safe buying outlet considering their overall strategic & on-line store"front" marketing. it automatically attracts new money and prolly directs it to its own inventory. pretty fancy net to catch the new fish, i guess.
Good points blurry.
until toto comes along at least:
@steel75 said: Which came first? The demand or the crazy profit people were getting because the prices spiked and now people(not collectors) wanted them.
I can't think of a collectible that had more available in the marketplace and the prices stayed the same.
Those T206's that were found in an attic in Ohio that came back with nice grades had to be sold slowly or it was going to screw the current prices of those cards if all of them went to market.
In what we are experiencing----- the crazy profit. The lure of easy money. There is still a ton of ungraded first 3 year Jordans and UD Griffeys out there. Do I think Griffey is a 4K card? No, but not 300 anymore, supply will increase, demand will still be there and a "new" price point will be established higher than previously.
The main point of my post is there are going to be a lot of "new players" that subbed cards with high expectations of huge profits that are going to be disappointed.
As a collector, I just remain patient and determine what I'm willing to pay for a certain want, move forward and never look back.
As these prices continue to rise, the fear of missing out becomes more pronounced amongst some collectors (raising hand here). And it takes some of us out of that band of disciplined price range that we are willing to pay for an item. There are cards and boxes that I will likely never own given what’s transpired. So I’m hoping to add some inventory where pricing seems reasonable based on my perception of future supply/demand.
John
I agree with NJ80s, I continue to buy cards even though everything is 2-3 times what it cost 2 months ago. Basically everything I collect and am looking to buy has at least doubled in a few months. I feel like the prices aren't sustainable but I also thought that after COVID hit and cards went nuts.
Robb
Top 30% for the grade....amazing he can continue to pull this off. That card is a 4/5
You have to pick & choose filling your want list items.
What is the likelihood it's going to be available to buy cheaper later this year, next year, 2 years?
Shift gears, wait it out, look for the opportunities; when you see your whale item, you usually gotta harpoon it
Just saw this on Twitter
Totally agree with this. I was selling off my unwanted collection to finance a much smaller subset I wanted to collect. But with prices rising so fast, I can't wait to sell off $1000 of mid-grade cards to buy a single $1000 high-grade card, because by the time I do, that $1000 card may be $3000. So I've had to buy ahead of my sales.
That said, I do set a personal rule never to pay more than the highest previous auction price. I'm fine paying more if I have to. I just don't want to be the one paying the most.
Edited to say I have occasionally broken my own rule. LOL.
I will say this having been in many hobbies over the years; When speculators exit a hobby, can be impacted for year or decades. In case of Comic Books it took almost a decade to recover from the 1993-1995 bottoming out, then another decade for the next boom (20+ years after the last boom) and in the case of new product sales never and will never recover. While new product sales were impacted by much more the first stake through the heart was the 90's bust leaving that portion of the hobby on the critical list.
Will that happen with cards, specifically non prime super high supply cards? It's not if, but when. Could be weeks, month or years but the larger the boom the larger bust.
True Blue Chip, truly rare, truly in demand items typically are least (or not) affected by a bear market. Since mentioned already in this topic of all 1990's Baseball Cards the 1993 SP Jeter in PSA9 or 10 is what I alone feel meets True Blue Chip Criteria. The numbers for that card in 9 or 10 have barely increased in 2 years and given how condition sensitive it is I do not think that will change.
Conversely on the 1990 Baseball Card front there are too many "fools gold" cards to mention but lets take one of my absolute favorite cards of the decade, the 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas; currently approx 3700 in PSA10! If that number continues to trend as it has last 2 years that will double in next 2 years. Perhaps faster as I'm sure piles of them sent into PSA since last summer with more on the way.
When a bust occurs their will be no more $150 PSA10 1986 Fleer Cecil Fielder Rookie or $150 PSA10 1993 Bowman Andy Pettitte Rookie cards selling on eBay. Just using those as examples of non HOF , non blue-chip cards. Going back to the early 80s one might also include 1981/1982/1983 Fleer and Donruss just look at the PSA10 Pops of those card! Due to their sky High populations in PSA10 will cards like even Sandberg or Gywnn or Ripken rookies from those sets escape a bust unscathed? I just don't see them maintaining most of their current going rate in a bear market as they are neither as hard to find in PSA10 nor have the cachet of their Topps counterparts.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I usually follow that rule as well. Fortunately I violated it several years ago when I was the first person to pay more than $10k for a PSA 8 1955 Clemente RC
Right now? I have little concern since...
I have enough money to last me the rest of my life.
Provided I go by next Thursday.
All I can say is I have been wrong in predicting the length of this value cycle for sportscards. The influx of new investment money has changed the "hobby" drastically in terms of being affordable to the average collector. I find myself buying far less because I still want the quality that makes up my collection at a price I can afford. What has been good for me is selling stuff I bought 20 years ago on eBay that was a bit speculative on my part. Last year I couldn't get a $9.99 starting bid on eBay for most of it so I quit listing it. Now I put it out and am getting $20-$40 for stuff I paid half of that back when.
Several years ago I saved my eBay profits for three years wanting to buy a 1952 Topps Mantle in a PSA 2 that would look decent. The more I saved the more the price went up. Finally, at the 2015 National I negotiated one for $14,900. The next year the price of a PSA 2 went down and I thought...well I do have a nice Mantle even if I overpaid. Now in this market I can easily double my money if I wanted to so, probably more.
So the increased value of cards in demand continues to escalate and I don't see it stopping soon. But history of the hobby tells us that like the stock market there will be a period of adjustment at some point. There will be the last person to pay $100,000 for a young basketball player only to find when they want to flip it that there will be a loss not a profit and then the price will diminish and at some point settle on an established value. My concern is that for many collectors with limited discretionary money the market is tough to negotiate in terms of collecting what is their interest/passion.
Exactly. When folks takes losses they jump ship. Could be something as simple as career ending injury of a young player causing the card to drop to near 0. In the case of a 100K card that is a large drop. When speculators leave a hobby the people who were priced out don't necessarily return. Those do who return do not do so simultaneously thus creating a price vacuum.
Here's the thing about speculators; they always leave and when they do so damage is always left in the wake. The only question is how much damage.
My opinion on any non-Blue Chip right now Sell, Sell, Sell before most have their vaccines. I still strongly contend the only current non purposely limited "regular issue" 1990's Blue Chip Baseball Card is the 93 SP Jeter in PSA 9 or above. I'd guess an 8.5 is close enough to be "quasi" Blue Chip, and a 8 is hold, wait and see.
Of course I could be totally wrong, and if so I'll eat crow, but history and the very nature (gets whilst the gettin' is good) of Speculators is on my side.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Exactly. When folks takes losses, they jump ship. Could be something as simple as career ending injury of a young player causing the card to drop to near 0. In the case of a 100K card that is a large drop. When speculators leave a hobby the people who were priced out don't necessarily return. Those do who return do not do so simultaneously thus creating a price vacuum.
Here's the thing about speculators; they always leave and when they do so damage is always left in their wake. The only question is how much damage.
My opinion on any non-Blue Chip right now Sell, Sell, Sell before most have their vaccines. I still strongly contend the only current non purposely limited "regular issue" 1990's Blue Chip Baseball Card is the 93 SP Jeter in PSA 9 or above. I'd guess an 8.5 is close enough to be "quasi" Blue Chip, and a 8 is hold, wait and see.
Of course I could be totally wrong but history and the very nature (gets whilst the gettin' is good) of Speculators is on my side.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
(Still holding 😂)
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
I don't think this is like the 1990's at all. In the 1990's, it was basically just the new stuff going crazy, not everything across the board like now. The problem was that the new stuff was grossly overproduced and that is why it went down.
There are a lot of things at play right now.
It isn't just an increase in in buyers in our our country either. Sports is becoming more and more global with each passing year, and we have just scratched the surface on that market.
The term "new normal" has made me want to vomit this past year, so I won't use that term for this thread. But I will say that covid has given people exposure to new markets and new ways of directing their attention and money. Some will leave, but many will be hooked for life. In an industry with a set supply, all it takes is a small percentage of new buyers to make a huge and lasting impact on prices.
Speculation is driving the market in my opinion. Super high end, record sales are not part of this trend however. The guy who pays $1M for a card that was previously selling for $100k or something is probably not going to try to flip it. They just have the f-u money to buy whatever the heck they want because of reasons. If that is the case, that inventory is no longer part of the float and the market can move independently of it.
I would think that the majority of speculation occurs in the mid-range where you can turn a card around for a quick $500 or $1k profit. The upfront investment/risk is manageable and the reward over time can be substantial. This attracts the speculators who sell to each other or the occasional collector. Its a game of hot potato. Sooner or later, they will exit the market and there will be bag holders.
I have the feeling that the Summer might be the turning point. As people start to get a breath of fresh, free air after a year of COVID, they will turn to other interests...maybe that Jeep upgrade they wanted to do or that motorcycle purchase or maybe they are eyeing a new bow rider they can take their long lost friends out on. We will see.
I think that social media is a MASSIVE factor in the hobby right now. I was around for the early 1990s, and that was fun. But once you bought your cards, you took them home and that was basically it. Now people go online and show off their cards to all of their followers (hundreds? thousands? more?). That keeps the hobby on people's minds constantly, which I'm sure contributes to growing prices. Not to mention the breaker culture, which builds social media/online communities and encourages people to basically play the lottery together via trading cards.
Those things coupled with all of the elements already mentioned makes me think we are in this for a long time. Prices likely won't stay as sky high and increasing weekly (daily?), but I also don't see them dropping to anywhere near March 2020 levels ever again.
Oh man how true. I've been in facebook groups where people show pictures of cards or unopened packs and somehow it looks more attractive even though you have seen the card a million times, and it makes you want to buy one.
Prices are rising everywhere. I get a kick out of McDonald's dollar menu. By dollar, they mean $1.49, not a dollar like it really was recently....and then they give you two ounces less worth of fries on top of the price increase. That is like that all over the place.
If I could have bought 100,000 orders of small fries from McDonald's two years ago and kept them, then I would have made a lot of money on them today
. Same premise.
Then imagine if an influx of new french fry buyers came into being...and mcdonalds couldn't keep enough fries in their store, then prices would go even higher.
Prices may bounce here and there, but long term, they are headed higher...unless there is a civil war or something catastrophic.
If you're even close to right, and I have no reason to doubt you on a macro scale and plenty of anecdotal evidence in support, then inflation is present in numbers far greater than the Fed targets or can comprehend.
I would make one observation...if you were making any efforts at all in the last 2 or three years to buy "popular" boxes of sports cards, whether those were basketball, football, or even baseball, at retail outlets like Walmart or Target, you probably have a decent handle on perceived production. This year compared to the last year or two, companies like Panini appear to have significantly increased their production. I have heard from some dealers that Topps has required some brick and mortar shops to buy twice what they bought last year in terms of cases of new product. That all suggests to me, at least anecdotally, that the companies are fully aware of the present boom and are adjusting accordingly. I will be interested in the next 5-10 years to see what those production totals look like (which we may never know, but might gain some insight into through POP reports on graded cards.) If companies are ramping up production like I suspect they are, then some of the folks buying large quantities of the new stuff might be in for a rude awakening eventually. Card companies are businesses, and they are not ignorant of the boom happening right now. For the most part they don't benefit from a $50,000 card being found in one of their blasters, other than the fact that everything they produce that potentially houses such a card gets snapped up immediately. Their only way to take advantage of the boom is to ramp up production. I suspect there is more of that happening right now than we know.
Just my two cents.
kevin
Interesting. I guess the moral of the story is that stuff being made now will be the one to take the hit in any future price drop.
Anything that has high graded populations in effect regardless of year. Law of "Supply and Demand" eventually always reign. I'm wary of any card post 1979 that has PSA10 Populations greater than 2500 and especially greater than 3500 , it does not take much of loss of interest for those cards to quickly go down in price.
Take the 1992 Bowman Mariano Rivera, bar none my favorite of all Baseball players who had a 1990's rookie card. There are 1400 of these currently in PSA10. Early in Feb they were $1900-2100 on eBay now 40% less. By year end there may be over 2000 in PSA10. A popular NY player and considered/consensus by experts to be single best relief pitcher in MLB history, not to mention a class act. If demand is unable to sustain price with 1400 PSA10's then what happens when that PSA10 number increases even more?
1990 Frank Thomas, yeah I've brought up one of my favorite 1990's cards before; there are over 3750 of them. By this time next year no way that number is not over 4000 and highly likely it is over 5000 in PSA10. No telling how many of these Junk Wax era cards are currently sitting and waiting in a PSA warehouse to receive their PSA10 slabs. Sometime next year which is more feasible the cards is $200 or less as it was as recently as Dec 2020 or is it at $1000+. I'd bet heavily at $200 or less mark
My opinion avoid HIGH PSA10 population 1980's, 1990's, 2000's,2010's cards at current prices. It's a question of **when not if ** they drop or sink like a stone.
I do realize posts like this may upset or anger some sellers, dealers, and card market manipulators but the law of "Supply and Demand" is proven fact over a millennium and one of the very tenets of economics.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
All good points. I've talked about how supply is set in vintage cards, but in cases you have pointed out, the supply has a lot of potential of getting higher. I agree, I don't know if the demand for PSA 10 Frank Thomas rookies will grow as fast as that supply may grow, hence why rarities of iconic players is usually a safer bet.
The same card from the IG and Twitter post.
I agree completely. We’re in the middle of another ‘junk wax’ era where the junk is the overpopulated PSA 10 cards. This is an asset bubble clear as day. All the things we’re all saying are the exact same things that have been said in every asset bubble in history. When the dust settles, my opinion is that the low pop PSA 10s will retain a great deal of their value but the high pop ones that everyone is buying are going to be worth very little.
That is so true. I am continually amazed at the amount of money people will invest to watch other people open packs of cards on Youtube. In some cases, they don't even get the cards, they just donate cards or give money to support the breaker. Then there are NFT's which is a whole new platform.
How 'bout now 😂
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Update: I was totally right!
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Factual Answers to the questions posed in the topic title
Will the rise in prices sustain?
NO they did not except for the bluest Blue-chips and outliers or hot item of the day
Is this the new floor
NO it was not except for the bluest Blue-chips and outliers or hot item of the day
will there be a drop
YES and they continue to do so except for Blue-chips and outliers or hot item of the day
just the beginning
NO it was not except for the bluest Blue-Chips and outliers or hot item of the day
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)