@PSARich said:
So the increased value of cards in demand continues to escalate and I don't see it stopping soon. But history of the hobby tells us that like the stock market there will be a period of adjustment at some point. There will be the last person to pay $100,000 for a young basketball player only to find when they want to flip it that there will be a loss not a profit and then the price will diminish and at some point settle on an established value.
Exactly. When folks takes losses, they jump ship. Could be something as simple as career ending injury of a young player causing the card to drop to near 0. In the case of a 100K card that is a large drop. When speculators leave a hobby the people who were priced out don't necessarily return. Those do who return do not do so simultaneously thus creating a price vacuum.
Here's the thing about speculators; they always leave and when they do so damage is always left in their wake. The only question is how much damage.
My opinion on any non-Blue Chip right now Sell, Sell, Sell before most have their vaccines. I still strongly contend the only current non purposely limited "regular issue" 1990's Blue Chip Baseball Card is the 93 SP Jeter in PSA 9 or above. I'd guess an 8.5 is close enough to be "quasi" Blue Chip, and a 8 is hold, wait and see.
Of course I could be totally wrong but history and the very nature (gets whilst the gettin' is good) of Speculators is on my side.
(Still holding 😂)
How 'bout now 😂
Yes. Still holding.
I just like the card. I was not holding out for 10,000. I have just one copy and I like it.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
@PSARich said:
So the increased value of cards in demand continues to escalate and I don't see it stopping soon. But history of the hobby tells us that like the stock market there will be a period of adjustment at some point. There will be the last person to pay $100,000 for a young basketball player only to find when they want to flip it that there will be a loss not a profit and then the price will diminish and at some point settle on an established value.
Exactly. When folks takes losses, they jump ship. Could be something as simple as career ending injury of a young player causing the card to drop to near 0. In the case of a 100K card that is a large drop. When speculators leave a hobby the people who were priced out don't necessarily return. Those do who return do not do so simultaneously thus creating a price vacuum.
Here's the thing about speculators; they always leave and when they do so damage is always left in their wake. The only question is how much damage.
My opinion on any non-Blue Chip right now Sell, Sell, Sell before most have their vaccines. I still strongly contend the only current non purposely limited "regular issue" 1990's Blue Chip Baseball Card is the 93 SP Jeter in PSA 9 or above. I'd guess an 8.5 is close enough to be "quasi" Blue Chip, and a 8 is hold, wait and see.
Of course I could be totally wrong but history and the very nature (gets whilst the gettin' is good) of Speculators is on my side.
(Still holding 😂)
How 'bout now 😂
Yes. Still holding.
I just like the card. I was not holding out for 10,000. I have just one copy and I like it.
Still have my PSA9 as well but if I had sold it when it was at 22K+ I could now have 2 of them with 7K left over....
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I just like the card. I was not holding out for 10,000. I have just one copy and I like it.
I still have my 9 as well but wish I had sold it when it as at 22k+, I could purchase 2 of them today and 7K surplus. It's only slight higher now than it's late 2019 price.
I don’t know if PSA 8 ever exploded in value the way higher graded did…
…and I don’t care. I won’t be buried with the card, either.
Just fun to collect.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
For every story about someone wishing they'd sold at the top (hindsight and all) I know plenty who sold way at the bottom (my brother bought and sold many Jordan rookies back in the 80s for 10s of dollars ).
I never sell and just like having them in my collection. I'll sell some day and will have had everything long enough that it will all be profit of some sort. The rest will be for someone else to deal with.
I have been at this hobby for over 35 years now. I have seen stuff go way up, then go way down and so on. over and over again. I dont really sell too much, so i actually with prices would stay low, then I could get more! price fluctuations will always happen and have never much mattered to me as I do not "invest" in sports cards. When I die, if the kids dont want to keep them all, they will probably have a nice amount of money to go have fun with when they sell them all.
@82FootballWaxMemorys said:
I will say this having been in many hobbies over the years; When speculators exit a hobby, can be impacted for year or decades. In case of Comic Books it took almost a decade to recover from the 1993-1995 bottoming out, then another decade for the next boom (20+ years after the last boom) and in the case of new product sales never and will never recover. While new product sales were impacted by much more the first stake through the heart was the 90's bust leaving that portion of the hobby on the critical list.
Will that happen with cards, specifically non prime super high supply cards? It's not if, but when. Could be weeks, month or years but the larger the boom the larger bust.
True Blue Chip, truly rare, truly in demand items typically are least (or not) affected by a bear market. Since mentioned already in this topic of all 1990's Baseball Cards the 1993 SP Jeter in PSA9 or 10 is what I alone feel meets True Blue Chip Criteria. The numbers for that card in 9 or 10 have barely increased in 2 years and given how condition sensitive it is I do not think that will change.
Conversely on the 1990 Baseball Card front there are too many "fools gold" cards to mention but lets take one of my absolute favorite cards of the decade, the 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas; currently approx 3700 in PSA10! If that number continues to trend as it has last 2 years that will double in next 2 years. Perhaps faster as I'm sure piles of them sent into PSA since last summer with more on the way.
When a bust occurs their will be no more $150 PSA10 1986 Fleer Cecil Fielder Rookie or $150 PSA10 1993 Bowman Andy Pettitte Rookie cards selling on eBay. Just using those as examples of non HOF , non blue-chip cards. Going back to the early 80s one might also include 1981/1982/1983 Fleer and Donruss just look at the PSA10 Pops of those card! Due to their sky High populations in PSA10 will cards like even Sandberg or Gywnn or Ripken rookies from those sets escape a bust unscathed? I just don't see them maintaining most of their current going rate in a bear market as they are neither as hard to find in PSA10 nor have the cachet of their Topps counterparts.
You nailed it with the high population cards as the high supply cards took a big hit.
Picking up the vintage cards with low supply during the Feb 2021 boom have either maintained or gone up as of today, like Jackie Robinson's earlier pre leaf cards, and Babe Ruth cards from his playing days. Those are the safest bets to hold their value or go up...and also happen to be extremely cool and desirable....scarce Ruth's and Jackie's....can't go wrong there.
With inflation the powers at be were saying it was 'transitory' or "not there" all through 2021. They were wrong of course. Eggs, food, fast food places...prices are through the roof. Gas...all the stuff we need to buy every day has gone up in price and has no signs of letting up.
@mintonlypls said:
Vintage (1960s and earlier) high end (8.5 and higher grades) will hold current price levels or continue to go up…JMHO.
Well, that is a very small segment of the hobby. That said, I've heard this said before and then when I go look up a card, there seems to be some erosion in price. Pete Rose RC, PSA 8 peak was close to 30K, last one sold for 11k. Recent average around 16K.
8.5 same card, no recent sales, too niche a grade.
9 106k recent, peak was 150k
Koufax RC in an 8, peak was around 40k, last 2 sold were close to 25k and there hasn't been a 2023 sale so possibly less.
These are the only two cards I looked at, and I realize there is variance in grade, but I don't see any evidence vintage , save for the VERY best stuff, which 99.8% of us down own, is holding value. And we aren't even in recession yet.
I agree that vintage will hold value better then modern.... but 79 and earlier, reasonably available, appears to be way off ATH's. Haven't looked at Mantle prices but would bet large majority of that pop sells for much less then peak, like Gretzky, Jordan, etc.
True...Jordan RCs are way off its highs. Even though the percentage of Jordan RCs in a PSA-10 is low (1.4%)...the actual # (318) in a PSA-10 is what determines price. Jordan RCs in a PSA-10 are VERY available. By contrast...vintage sports cards (1960s and earlier) are a much better, safer buy in high end (8.5 or better).
My collection (all baseball...my personal preference) is 80% in 1960s and 1950s with 20% in the 1970s. Also...my PC is 87% in 8.5 or 9.
The important message is to buy what you like and can afford.
Agreed, not just Jordans however, there are high grade 60s rookies that are 30-40 off highs as shown above.
Me? Couldn’t care less, took time off when prices were stupid and will start buying again. Never saw cards as investments personally, even though I acknowledge they can be fantastic investments for those paying attention.
I began collecting again (since childhood) in the early 1980s...and my hobby evolved into my lap as an investment.
You are correct that vintage too has come down somewhat...but as you pointed out holding up MUCH better than modern (1980s and later). Vintage is more likely to climb over time than modern, too. Supply-and-demand economics...
Vintage (60s & 70s is what I track/buy) has definitely softened recently. There are good buys out there, but you have to look around more. There are some places selling that seem to attract more buyers/bidders that get the prices higher. These places I used to buy often from I've been skipping recently, because I can find better deals elsewhere.
Most cards, even vintage, are fairly easy to buy. Even a card like a 1963 Pete Rose, I just checked Ebay and there are 100 legit ones for sale(I stopped counting as there are more).
Using those sales numbers for Pete Rose in a PSA 8, the high was 30K and is now averaging around 16K.
16K still for a 1963 Topps Pete Rose in a PSA 8. There are 423 PSA 8 Rose Rookies in the PSA pop report. There are 30 PSA 9's. Then SGC has a bunch of high quality ones too.
For comparison, I believe that the early Ruth cards are actually STILL undervalued as a comparison. For example:
1922 Caramel E121 Babe Ruth Photo Montage. It isn't his rookie, but it is a very early Babe Ruth and one of the very few from that old of an age that has an actual picture of Ruth(not a strip card drawing). Plus it is about as clear an image of Ruth as there is in any of his early cards.
There are only 59 TOTAL 1922 Ruth Montage E121 in the PSA pop report. JUST 59 TOTAL. Then another 29 from SGC.
Think about it, only 59 Total PSA Ruth's compared to 435 Rose in PSA 8. That should immediately give one pause and make them scratch their heads.
The Ruth's in a "1" are running around 9k right now. A "2" between $15,000-$16,000(eye appeal makes low grade prices vary a great deal).
To me, this has never added up and I always felt the playing days Ruth's(especially the early 20's) were waaaay undervalued compared to cards like a Pete Rose rookie. I believe they still are undervalued.
People might get hung up on the Rose being his 'rookie', but that still doesn't make me un-scratch my head at the price disparity in relation to the population of each card....plus this is Ruth we are talking about.
Not to mention the 960 PSA 7 Rose rookies of which 30% are probably just as visually appealing as his 8's, and some as visually appealing as his 9's. This offsets the fact that the 1922 Caramel set has two other Ruth's(but both very low pop like the Montage.
If adding the 1922 Caramel Ruth Holding Bird & Holding ball, there are only 120 total PSA pop between those two cards.
Doesn't add up.
In terms of this discussion, if the market softens(or the economy) and people want to sell, you may see a bunch of Rose rookies hit the market. That won't be the case with Ruth as there simply aren't enough to make a flood to cause cheap prices. It would most likely take something catastrophic in the world to really kill that Ruth market, and at that point it would be the least of our worries anyway.
For a 1964 Pete Rose there are 35 in a PSA 9 and those are around $63,000. This 1964 Rose 9 population is more in line with the total Caramel Montage Ruth's yet BLOWS away the Ruth's in price and is not a Rose "Rookie." Then there are another 360 8's for 1964 Rose still selling for $3,500+. PSA 7's etc...
I think more people are starting to realize this and why Ruth cards are actually on the way up still.
@1948_Swell_Robinson said:
Most cards, even vintage, are fairly easy to buy. Even a card like a 1963 Pete Rose, I just checked Ebay and there are 100 legit ones for sale(I stopped counting as there are more).
Using those sales numbers for Pete Rose in a PSA 8, the high was 30K and is now averaging around 16K.
16K still for a 1963 Topps Pete Rose in a PSA 8. There are 423 PSA 8 Rose Rookies in the PSA pop report. There are 30 PSA 9's. Then SGC has a bunch of high quality ones too.
For comparison, I believe that the early Ruth cards are actually STILL undervalued as a comparison. For example:
1922 Caramel E121 Babe Ruth Photo Montage. It isn't his rookie, but it is a very early Babe Ruth and one of the very few from that old of an age that has an actual picture of Ruth(not a strip card drawing). Plus it is about as clear an image of Ruth as there is in any of his early cards.
There are only 59 TOTAL 1922 Ruth Montage E121 in the PSA pop report. JUST 59 TOTAL. Then another 29 from SGC.
Think about it, only 59 Total PSA Ruth's compared to 435 Rose in PSA 8. That should immediately give one pause and make them scratch their heads.
The Ruth's in a "1" are running around 9k right now. A "2" between $15,000-$16,000(eye appeal makes low grade prices vary a great deal).
To me, this has never added up and I always felt the playing days Ruth's(especially the early 20's) were waaaay undervalued compared to cards like a Pete Rose rookie. I believe they still are undervalued.
People might get hung up on the Rose being his 'rookie', but that still doesn't make me un-scratch my head at the price disparity in relation to the population of each card....plus this is Ruth we are talking about.
Not to mention the 960 PSA 7 Rose rookies of which 30% are probably just as visually appealing as his 8's, and some as visually appealing as his 9's. This offsets the fact that the 1922 Caramel set has two other Ruth's(but both very low pop like the Montage.
If adding the 1922 Caramel Ruth Holding Bird & Holding ball, there are only 120 total PSA pop between those two cards.
Doesn't add up.
In terms of this discussion, if the market softens(or the economy) and people want to sell, you may see a bunch of Rose rookies hit the market. That won't be the case with Ruth as there simply aren't enough to make a flood to cause cheap prices. It would most likely take something catastrophic in the world to really kill that Ruth market, and at that point it would be the least of our worries anyway.
For a 1964 Pete Rose there are 35 in a PSA 9 and those are around $63,000. This 1964 Rose 9 population is more in line with the total Caramel Montage Ruth's yet BLOWS away the Ruth's in price and is not a Rose "Rookie." Then there are another 360 8's for 1964 Rose still selling for $3,500+. PSA 7's etc...
I think more people are starting to realize this and why Ruth cards are actually on the way up still.
Swell, you make some excellent points. IMHO most collectors don't even realize a Ruth can be had for similar money. They don't even consider or look into Ruth because we assume it's out of our price range.
Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Comments
Vintage (1960s and earlier) high end (8.5 and higher grades) will hold current price levels or continue to go up…JMHO.
Yes. Still holding.
I just like the card. I was not holding out for 10,000. I have just one copy and I like it.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
So too will pre-war in most grades. But that stuff for the most part only increased organically and did not sublimate like Junk Wax or Modern.
Supply and demand: the later is no longer there for Junk and former increased heavily.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Still have my PSA9 as well but if I had sold it when it was at 22K+ I could now have 2 of them with 7K left over....
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
@1951WheatiesPremium said:
» show previous quotes
Yes. Still holding.
I just like the card. I was not holding out for 10,000. I have just one copy and I like it.
I still have my 9 as well but wish I had sold it when it as at 22k+, I could purchase 2 of them today and 7K surplus. It's only slight higher now than it's late 2019 price.
I don’t know if PSA 8 ever exploded in value the way higher graded did…
…and I don’t care. I won’t be buried with the card, either.
Just fun to collect.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
For every story about someone wishing they'd sold at the top (hindsight and all) I know plenty who sold way at the bottom (my brother bought and sold many Jordan rookies back in the 80s for 10s of dollars
).
I never sell and just like having them in my collection. I'll sell some day and will have had everything long enough that it will all be profit of some sort. The rest will be for someone else to deal with.
I have been at this hobby for over 35 years now. I have seen stuff go way up, then go way down and so on. over and over again. I dont really sell too much, so i actually with prices would stay low, then I could get more! price fluctuations will always happen and have never much mattered to me as I do not "invest" in sports cards. When I die, if the kids dont want to keep them all, they will probably have a nice amount of money to go have fun with when they sell them all.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Either way I don't think the PSA 8 SP Jeter would have made or broke his day. Nice card wheaties
You nailed it with the high population cards as the high supply cards took a big hit.
Picking up the vintage cards with low supply during the Feb 2021 boom have either maintained or gone up as of today, like Jackie Robinson's earlier pre leaf cards, and Babe Ruth cards from his playing days. Those are the safest bets to hold their value or go up...and also happen to be extremely cool and desirable....scarce Ruth's and Jackie's....can't go wrong there.
With inflation the powers at be were saying it was 'transitory' or "not there" all through 2021. They were wrong of course. Eggs, food, fast food places...prices are through the roof. Gas...all the stuff we need to buy every day has gone up in price and has no signs of letting up.
Thanks! I’m still one who just likes the cards. Of all sorts and conditions, really, it just has to “speak to me” on some level…
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
Well, that is a very small segment of the hobby. That said, I've heard this said before and then when I go look up a card, there seems to be some erosion in price. Pete Rose RC, PSA 8 peak was close to 30K, last one sold for 11k. Recent average around 16K.
8.5 same card, no recent sales, too niche a grade.
9 106k recent, peak was 150k
Koufax RC in an 8, peak was around 40k, last 2 sold were close to 25k and there hasn't been a 2023 sale so possibly less.
These are the only two cards I looked at, and I realize there is variance in grade, but I don't see any evidence vintage , save for the VERY best stuff, which 99.8% of us down own, is holding value. And we aren't even in recession yet.
I agree that vintage will hold value better then modern.... but 79 and earlier, reasonably available, appears to be way off ATH's. Haven't looked at Mantle prices but would bet large majority of that pop sells for much less then peak, like Gretzky, Jordan, etc.
True...Jordan RCs are way off its highs. Even though the percentage of Jordan RCs in a PSA-10 is low (1.4%)...the actual # (318) in a PSA-10 is what determines price. Jordan RCs in a PSA-10 are VERY available. By contrast...vintage sports cards (1960s and earlier) are a much better, safer buy in high end (8.5 or better).
My collection (all baseball...my personal preference) is 80% in 1960s and 1950s with 20% in the 1970s. Also...my PC is 87% in 8.5 or 9.
The important message is to buy what you like and can afford.
Agreed, not just Jordans however, there are high grade 60s rookies that are 30-40 off highs as shown above.
Me? Couldn’t care less, took time off when prices were stupid and will start buying again. Never saw cards as investments personally, even though I acknowledge they can be fantastic investments for those paying attention.
I began collecting again (since childhood) in the early 1980s...and my hobby evolved into my lap as an investment.
You are correct that vintage too has come down somewhat...but as you pointed out holding up MUCH better than modern (1980s and later). Vintage is more likely to climb over time than modern, too. Supply-and-demand economics...
Vintage (60s & 70s is what I track/buy) has definitely softened recently. There are good buys out there, but you have to look around more. There are some places selling that seem to attract more buyers/bidders that get the prices higher. These places I used to buy often from I've been skipping recently, because I can find better deals elsewhere.
Most cards, even vintage, are fairly easy to buy. Even a card like a 1963 Pete Rose, I just checked Ebay and there are 100 legit ones for sale(I stopped counting as there are more).
Using those sales numbers for Pete Rose in a PSA 8, the high was 30K and is now averaging around 16K.
16K still for a 1963 Topps Pete Rose in a PSA 8. There are 423 PSA 8 Rose Rookies in the PSA pop report. There are 30 PSA 9's. Then SGC has a bunch of high quality ones too.
For comparison, I believe that the early Ruth cards are actually STILL undervalued as a comparison. For example:
1922 Caramel E121 Babe Ruth Photo Montage. It isn't his rookie, but it is a very early Babe Ruth and one of the very few from that old of an age that has an actual picture of Ruth(not a strip card drawing). Plus it is about as clear an image of Ruth as there is in any of his early cards.
There are only 59 TOTAL 1922 Ruth Montage E121 in the PSA pop report. JUST 59 TOTAL. Then another 29 from SGC.
Think about it, only 59 Total PSA Ruth's compared to 435 Rose in PSA 8. That should immediately give one pause and make them scratch their heads.
The Ruth's in a "1" are running around 9k right now. A "2" between $15,000-$16,000(eye appeal makes low grade prices vary a great deal).
To me, this has never added up and I always felt the playing days Ruth's(especially the early 20's) were waaaay undervalued compared to cards like a Pete Rose rookie. I believe they still are undervalued.
People might get hung up on the Rose being his 'rookie', but that still doesn't make me un-scratch my head at the price disparity in relation to the population of each card....plus this is Ruth we are talking about.
Not to mention the 960 PSA 7 Rose rookies of which 30% are probably just as visually appealing as his 8's, and some as visually appealing as his 9's. This offsets the fact that the 1922 Caramel set has two other Ruth's(but both very low pop like the Montage.
If adding the 1922 Caramel Ruth Holding Bird & Holding ball, there are only 120 total PSA pop between those two cards.
Doesn't add up.
In terms of this discussion, if the market softens(or the economy) and people want to sell, you may see a bunch of Rose rookies hit the market. That won't be the case with Ruth as there simply aren't enough to make a flood to cause cheap prices. It would most likely take something catastrophic in the world to really kill that Ruth market, and at that point it would be the least of our worries anyway.
For a 1964 Pete Rose there are 35 in a PSA 9 and those are around $63,000. This 1964 Rose 9 population is more in line with the total Caramel Montage Ruth's yet BLOWS away the Ruth's in price and is not a Rose "Rookie." Then there are another 360 8's for 1964 Rose still selling for $3,500+. PSA 7's etc...
I think more people are starting to realize this and why Ruth cards are actually on the way up still.
Swell, you make some excellent points. IMHO most collectors don't even realize a Ruth can be had for similar money. They don't even consider or look into Ruth because we assume it's out of our price range.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.