Now will come the cherry picked and one off stories of how so and so put their life savings into GameStop at $350 to make money to feed their kids only to lose it all.
@AUandAG said:
Do I remember that silver usually traded at 16 to 1 (gold to silver)? If that could be done silver would top $115.
bob
Hi Bob,
I wish, but that ratio is no longer valid. I remember in 1980 gold hit 800 & silver hit 50 (more or less) which reinforced the 16 to 1 ratio.
Back in the late 19th century (even before our time) progressives and other silver supporters wanted to use both silver and gold in money. We got US silver dollars at a fixed weight ratio of 16-to-1 vs gold dollars.
In reality gold was then and is now valued at much more than 16-1.
Reading back over your post, and knowing you, I think you were maybe joking.
And now, as I post this, it’s down a bit. How often are you planning to post updates? And will you only do so when it’s up?😉
That's the way the Reddit reads. When the price moves against you, it's manipulation. When the price moved for you, even if you are underwater, it prices you were right all along. Even 3% up against a10% drop 5 hours earlier isn't "up" to me.
After all the hullabaloo, it's down 50 cents from Friday.
@cladking said:
I've called this run many times and been wrong.
But keep your hands inside the car at all times and hang on. We're poised to go for a very wild ride.
Silver will not be coming back down after this (the next) one for a good long while; not in the foreseeable future.
LOL.
So that sort of translates:
I keep getting this wrong, but...THIS TIME is different.
Let's just say that based only on history, I'm probably wrong again.
I do have a real knack for calling highs and lows in many markets but, obviously, nobody can predict the future. It's long been my belief that every person acts on what he believes and that people overestimate the amount of silver and underestimate its potential demand and its value relative all other commodities. The disconnect is so great that the day will come when the psychology of this market suddenly changes causing a massive buying panic. This could have occurred any time since about 1977 and the same sort of belief drove the Hunts to try to corner the markets and the regulators to change the rules in the middle of the game to stop them.
Since then silver has apparently been manipulated to keep the price low to help manufacturers and to maintain the appearance that everything is stable (except silver).
Nobody can control the physical market. Silver is there or it is not. I believe for the main part it is not and a buying panic (demand) will eventually overwhelm the "supply" of non-existent metal. More and more entities are taking delivery on contracts and more and more governments (including states) are socking away metal in case the dollar crashes and because there are states leaders who believe it is the Constitutional responsibility of the federal government to coin specie. There is growing demand in China and in India.
I suppose one could claim it's a self fulfilling prophesy but still there is no indication of slackening demand. Of course if the shorts capitulate it will ignite a buying panic and if they don't we still have a buying panic pending. I see no way out and any government interference would cause problems in the bond market which is the for most practical purposes the world economy.
The government while not always intentionally has done nothing but damage silver since 1964. They sold 3 billion ounces which was the only stockpile in history but now all that is gone. We live hand to mouth on silver but now more and more is being diverted to investment. Silver is the best bet on the ingenuity of the human species since every new product and advance in almost every field requires silver to work. We might need large quantities some day but we've been wasting it for more than half a century to enrich the few. The one exception to the rule that the government has hurt silver is the issuance of the silver eagle in 1986. I believe the intent was mostly to help American silver producers and fabricators but the effect was a large positive for the silver market as sales have soared in this millennia.
The markets should be interesting this year. The Chinese curse "may you live in interesting times" seems to apply perfectly.
@cladking said:
I've called this run many times and been wrong.
But keep your hands inside the car at all times and hang on. We're poised to go for a very wild ride.
Silver will not be coming back down after this (the next) one for a good long while; not in the foreseeable future.
LOL.
So that sort of translates:
I keep getting this wrong, but...THIS TIME is different.
Let's just say that based only on history, I'm probably wrong again.
I do have a real knack for calling highs and lows in many markets but, obviously, nobody can predict the future. It's long been my belief that every person acts on what he believes and that people overestimate the amount of silver and underestimate its potential demand and its value relative all other commodities. The disconnect is so great that the day will come when the psychology of this market suddenly changes causing a massive buying panic. This could have occurred any time since about 1977 and the same sort of belief drove the Hunts to try to corner the markets and the regulators to change the rules in the middle of the game to stop them.
Since then silver has apparently been manipulated to keep the price low to help manufacturers and to maintain the appearance that everything is stable (except silver).
Nobody can control the physical market. Silver is there or it is not. I believe for the main part it is not and a buying panic (demand) will eventually overwhelm the "supply" of non-existent metal. More and more entities are taking delivery on contracts and more and more governments (including states) are socking away metal in case the dollar crashes and because there are states leaders who believe it is the Constitutional responsibility of the federal government to coin specie. There is growing demand in China and in India.
I suppose one could claim it's a self fulfilling prophesy but still there is no indication of slackening demand. Of course if the shorts capitulate it will ignite a buying panic and if they don't we still have a buying panic pending. I see no way out and any government interference would cause problems in the bond market which is the for most practical purposes the world economy.
The government while not always intentionally has done nothing but damage silver since 1964. They sold 3 billion ounces which was the only stockpile in history but now all that is gone. We live hand to mouth on silver but now more and more is being diverted to investment. Silver is the best bet on the ingenuity of the human species since every new product and advance in almost every field requires silver to work. We might need large quantities some day but we've been wasting it for more than half a century to enrich the few. The one exception to the rule that the government has hurt silver is the issuance of the silver eagle in 1986. I believe the intent was mostly to help American silver producers and fabricators but the effect was a large positive for the silver market as sales have soared in this millennia.
The markets should be interesting this year. The Chinese curse "may you live in interesting times" seems to apply perfectly.
I'm not saying you are wrong...or right. I really don't know.
I was on the phone with a friend during the zaniness on Monday and he asked what I was doing with SLV. I said "nothing".
He was incredulous, "Why not?"
"Because I don't know whether it is going up or going down, so I'm just watching."
"Although, on a technical basis, gold prices have sustained a major blow, the fundamentals for price support are still exceedingly strong. The Federal Reserve maintains an extremely accommodative monetary policy, including near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing. When coupled with the fiscal expenditures of $4 trillion last year and the current proposal by President Biden to initiate another round of stimulus, which will add an additional $1.9 trillion to the national debt, a case can be made for strong fundamental support of the precious metals complex including gold and silver pricing."
"Although, on a technical basis, gold prices have sustained a major blow, the fundamentals for price support are still exceedingly strong. The Federal Reserve maintains an extremely accommodative monetary policy, including near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing. When coupled with the fiscal expenditures of $4 trillion last year and the current proposal by President Biden to initiate another round of stimulus, which will add an additional $1.9 trillion to the national debt, a case can be made for strong fundamental support of the precious metals complex including gold and silver pricing."
I can go along with that.
The bitterness of "Poor Quality" is remembered long after the sweetness of low price is forgotten.
That doggone ETF SLV has come up quite often, of course, in this thread. That is one dangerous ETF.
People here have spoken about buying it , long term, almost like "Hey, how can you go wrong ?".....
Well, as someone who has tried, you can't buy this thing long term. Contango and Backwardation will KILL you.
Been there, done that........No joke.....
I just had a look at the historical chart of SLV. It began trading on May 1, 2006 in the range of $12-14. At the March 2020 lows, it dipped below $11. (Since then, it's more than doubled, but just about any security has done at least that well over the same span.) It doesn't pay a dividend. In other words, SLV is not a good long-term investment by any standard. If you want to speculate on the price of silver, it's a fine vehicle for that purpose. Otherwise, your investment dollars are better placed elsewhere.
@thebeav said:
That doggone ETF SLV has come up quite often, of course, in this thread. That is one dangerous ETF.
People here have spoken about buying it , long term, almost like "Hey, how can you go wrong ?".....
Well, as someone who has tried, you can't buy this thing long term. Contango and Backwardation will KILL you.
Been there, done that........No joke.....
You have no idea what you are talking about. There can NOT be contango or backwardation with SLV because they do NOT deal in Silver futures...
@thebeav said:
That doggone ETF SLV has come up quite often, of course, in this thread. That is one dangerous ETF.
People here have spoken about buying it , long term, almost like "Hey, how can you go wrong ?".....
Well, as someone who has tried, you can't buy this thing long term. Contango and Backwardation will KILL you.
Been there, done that........No joke.....
You have no idea what you are talking about. There can NOT be contango or backwardation with SLV because they do NOT deal in Silver futures...
@scubafuel said:
SLV will lag silver spot according to the fees they charge. But not due to either contango and backwardation.
Oil funds on the other hand...
Yeah. SLV is great for short term trades. It's probably okay in the medium term, 5 to 10 years, because of the efficiency in buying and selling. After that, you are just costing yourself money.
I wonder if the silver that SLV holds is leased out to short sellers ?
Sort of like when you buy some stock the brokerage turns around and loans those shares to an entity that sells them short, with the net effect of moving the market against you on the shares you just bought.
It used to be that you could look up gold lease rates, but I don't see anyone talk about that anymore. When I dig into it, I see that now there appears to be different rates for whether or not you physically take possession of the gold (lease rates are much higher with possession, and lower when the owner still physically holds it). There is probably silver leasing activity going on also, but that world is even more murky.
The whole system does seem to be rigged towards weakening producers and small players.
@dcarr said:
I wonder if the silver that SLV holds is leased out to short sellers ?
Sort of like when you buy some stock the brokerage turns around and loans those shares to an entity that sells them short, with the net effect of moving the market against you on the shares you just bought.
The answer would be no.
The only stocks that can be shorted are listed in street name.
Physical Silver is Not held in street name...
@dcarr said:
I wonder if the silver that SLV holds is leased out to short sellers ?
Sort of like when you buy some stock the brokerage turns around and loans those shares to an entity that sells them short, with the net effect of moving the market against you on the shares you just bought.
The answer would be no.
The only stocks that can be shorted are listed in street name.
Physical Silver is Not held in street name...
SLV is not a stock and is an ETF
I would suspect the answer is yes, as JP Morgan is the custodian and they are a known shorter of silver.
@dcarr said:
I wonder if the silver that SLV holds is leased out to short sellers ?
Sort of like when you buy some stock the brokerage turns around and loans those shares to an entity that sells them short, with the net effect of moving the market against you on the shares you just bought.
The answer would be no.
The only stocks that can be shorted are listed in street name.
Physical Silver is Not held in street name...
SLV is not a stock and is an ETF
I would suspect the answer is yes, as JP Morgan is the custodian and they are a known shorter of silver.
@cagcrisp was referring to selling leased silver not naked shorts
@dcarr said:
I wonder if the silver that SLV holds is leased out to short sellers ?
Sort of like when you buy some stock the brokerage turns around and loans those shares to an entity that sells them short, with the net effect of moving the market against you on the shares you just bought.
The answer would be no.
The only stocks that can be shorted are listed in street name.
Physical Silver is Not held in street name...
SLV is not a stock and is an ETF
I would suspect the answer is yes, as JP Morgan is the custodian and they are a known shorter of silver.
They inherited much of their historic short position from Bear Stearns which they've now, allegedly, unwound. And, according to most sources they've had no short positions in silver since late 2020.
Shorting as insurance against your hoard is not really shorting. JP Morgan has the largest silver hoard among the banks.
Shorting as insurance against your hoard is not really shorting.
This is generally a true statement. And, as hard as it is for some to fathom, shorting helps stabilize prices, which is NOT a bad thing. But that's a dissertation I'm not expanding on this morning.
Like with all activities, Longs and Shorts can get our of whack (as greatly demonstrated this last week or so), but I believe our capital, commodity and currency markets are fairly efficient, and typically correct such serious imbalances before too long.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Supply and demand is an amazing thing. One year ago, there was essentially Zero "comfortable and fashionable face mask" industry in the US. Now there is, and it's big.
Hopefully, next year that particular industry will be much, much smaller than it is now.
Precious metal supplies tend to increase over time when there is a surge in demand. At high enough prices, in order to produce solar panels and circuit boards, industry will mine and melt as much as necessary, even artistic and collectible items.
@jmski52 said:
Gold down $45.50 - that's an impressive one-day drop, especially in light of government & Fed finance. Kinda boggles the mind.
Mild buying opportunity.
Keep in mind, gold is still $250 HIGHER than it was a year ago.
You had a lot of pandemic fueled buying. Those positions will be unwound as the panic passes.
It wouldn't surprise me if gold and silver continued to drop some.
People like to make the "inflation argument" but there's been $1 trillion deficits since 2008 and zero inflation with zero interest rates. You've still got 30 year bonds at under 2%, that suggests there is no long-term inflation expectation in the marketplace.
@jmski52 said:
Gold down $45.50 - that's an impressive one-day drop, especially in light of government & Fed finance. Kinda boggles the mind.
Mild buying opportunity.
Keep in mind, gold is still $250 HIGHER than it was a year ago.
You had a lot of pandemic fueled buying. Those positions will be unwound as the panic passes.
It wouldn't surprise me if gold and silver continued to drop some.
People like to make the "inflation argument" but there's been $1 trillion deficits since 2008 and zero inflation with zero interest rates. You've still got 30 year bonds at under 2%, that suggests there is no long-term inflation expectation in the marketplace.
All the inflation dollars are going to the rich people and they arent spending it into the economy. That’s why there is no inflation lol
@jclovescoins said:
Looks like Reddit did more to hurt silver/gold prices than to help!
Nah....it was the increase in the DXY....been going back up the last few days. Reddit users were against the SLV movement saying it was a ruse by short sellers and banks
TV did note the dollar rise today, but I was unable to get my software to pull it up to post about it. I forgot almost immediately as I got distracted with the 1804 $5
That's interesting. Do you know why the ounces in trust is lower than shares outstanding? Do they loan silver? Is it common for them to be short? [For those that think SLV is more than just paper silver.]
I do not know the answers to those questions. I read somewhere that JP Morgan is the trustee holding the silver, but not whether they can rent it out or use it.
Comments
Now will come the cherry picked and one off stories of how so and so put their life savings into GameStop at $350 to make money to feed their kids only to lose it all.
But I’m not a cynical person... 👺
A lot of people did put their "life savings" into it. But their life savings amount to $1k-$2k
Silver up 3%
Hi Bob,
I wish, but that ratio is no longer valid. I remember in 1980 gold hit 800 & silver hit 50 (more or less) which reinforced the 16 to 1 ratio.
Back in the late 19th century (even before our time) progressives and other silver supporters wanted to use both silver and gold in money. We got US silver dollars at a fixed weight ratio of 16-to-1 vs gold dollars.
In reality gold was then and is now valued at much more than 16-1.
Reading back over your post, and knowing you, I think you were maybe joking.
And now, as I post this, it’s down a bit. How often are you planning to post updates? And will you only do so when it’s up?😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
That's the way the Reddit reads. When the price moves against you, it's manipulation. When the price moved for you, even if you are underwater, it prices you were right all along. Even 3% up against a10% drop 5 hours earlier isn't "up" to me.
After all the hullabaloo, it's down 50 cents from Friday.
Of course, it's also up 12 bucks from last March
I have bought / won some slabbed bullion MS69 coins within my $15 - $20 plus melt.
As far as future of silver price prediction pass.
I've called this run many times and been wrong.
But keep your hands inside the car at all times and hang on. We're poised to go for a very wild ride.
Silver will not be coming back down after this (the next) one for a good long while; not in the foreseeable future.
LOL.
So that sort of translates:
I keep getting this wrong, but...THIS TIME is different.
I hope he's right.
I have a puzzle that only coin people can answer.
My wife has a couple small shoeboxes that can store the gold. I need a whole bedroom to store silver.
My wife says we need more room.
Which has to go? It's not me.
Let's just say that based only on history, I'm probably wrong again.
I do have a real knack for calling highs and lows in many markets but, obviously, nobody can predict the future. It's long been my belief that every person acts on what he believes and that people overestimate the amount of silver and underestimate its potential demand and its value relative all other commodities. The disconnect is so great that the day will come when the psychology of this market suddenly changes causing a massive buying panic. This could have occurred any time since about 1977 and the same sort of belief drove the Hunts to try to corner the markets and the regulators to change the rules in the middle of the game to stop them.
Since then silver has apparently been manipulated to keep the price low to help manufacturers and to maintain the appearance that everything is stable (except silver).
Nobody can control the physical market. Silver is there or it is not. I believe for the main part it is not and a buying panic (demand) will eventually overwhelm the "supply" of non-existent metal. More and more entities are taking delivery on contracts and more and more governments (including states) are socking away metal in case the dollar crashes and because there are states leaders who believe it is the Constitutional responsibility of the federal government to coin specie. There is growing demand in China and in India.
I suppose one could claim it's a self fulfilling prophesy but still there is no indication of slackening demand. Of course if the shorts capitulate it will ignite a buying panic and if they don't we still have a buying panic pending. I see no way out and any government interference would cause problems in the bond market which is the for most practical purposes the world economy.
The government while not always intentionally has done nothing but damage silver since 1964. They sold 3 billion ounces which was the only stockpile in history but now all that is gone. We live hand to mouth on silver but now more and more is being diverted to investment. Silver is the best bet on the ingenuity of the human species since every new product and advance in almost every field requires silver to work. We might need large quantities some day but we've been wasting it for more than half a century to enrich the few. The one exception to the rule that the government has hurt silver is the issuance of the silver eagle in 1986. I believe the intent was mostly to help American silver producers and fabricators but the effect was a large positive for the silver market as sales have soared in this millennia.
The markets should be interesting this year. The Chinese curse "may you live in interesting times" seems to apply perfectly.
I'm not saying you are wrong...or right. I really don't know.
I was on the phone with a friend during the zaniness on Monday and he asked what I was doing with SLV. I said "nothing".
He was incredulous, "Why not?"
"Because I don't know whether it is going up or going down, so I'm just watching."
Turns out it did both. LOL.
KITCO:
"Although, on a technical basis, gold prices have sustained a major blow, the fundamentals for price support are still exceedingly strong. The Federal Reserve maintains an extremely accommodative monetary policy, including near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing. When coupled with the fiscal expenditures of $4 trillion last year and the current proposal by President Biden to initiate another round of stimulus, which will add an additional $1.9 trillion to the national debt, a case can be made for strong fundamental support of the precious metals complex including gold and silver pricing."
I can go along with that.
That doggone ETF SLV has come up quite often, of course, in this thread. That is one dangerous ETF.
People here have spoken about buying it , long term, almost like "Hey, how can you go wrong ?".....
Well, as someone who has tried, you can't buy this thing long term. Contango and Backwardation will KILL you.
Been there, done that........No joke.....
I just had a look at the historical chart of SLV. It began trading on May 1, 2006 in the range of $12-14. At the March 2020 lows, it dipped below $11. (Since then, it's more than doubled, but just about any security has done at least that well over the same span.) It doesn't pay a dividend. In other words, SLV is not a good long-term investment by any standard. If you want to speculate on the price of silver, it's a fine vehicle for that purpose. Otherwise, your investment dollars are better placed elsewhere.
EOM.
You have no idea what you are talking about. There can NOT be contango or backwardation with SLV because they do NOT deal in Silver futures...
yup
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/etfs/top-silver-etfs/
Check this out......https://morningstar.com/articles/304636/an-ugly-side-to-some-commodity-etfs
Yes, but that is NOT SLV which doesn't hold futures. See my link.
SLV will lag silver spot according to the fees they charge. But not due to either contango and backwardation.
Oil funds on the other hand...
Yeah. SLV is great for short term trades. It's probably okay in the medium term, 5 to 10 years, because of the efficiency in buying and selling. After that, you are just costing yourself money.
I wonder if the silver that SLV holds is leased out to short sellers ?
Sort of like when you buy some stock the brokerage turns around and loans those shares to an entity that sells them short, with the net effect of moving the market against you on the shares you just bought.
It used to be that you could look up gold lease rates, but I don't see anyone talk about that anymore. When I dig into it, I see that now there appears to be different rates for whether or not you physically take possession of the gold (lease rates are much higher with possession, and lower when the owner still physically holds it). There is probably silver leasing activity going on also, but that world is even more murky.
The whole system does seem to be rigged towards weakening producers and small players.
The answer would be no.
The only stocks that can be shorted are listed in street name.
Physical Silver is Not held in street name...
OK guys, I stand corrected.....
SLV is not a stock and is an ETF
I would suspect the answer is yes, as JP Morgan is the custodian and they are a known shorter of silver.
@cagcrisp was referring to selling leased silver not naked shorts
They inherited much of their historic short position from Bear Stearns which they've now, allegedly, unwound. And, according to most sources they've had no short positions in silver since late 2020.
Shorting as insurance against your hoard is not really shorting. JP Morgan has the largest silver hoard among the banks.
This is generally a true statement. And, as hard as it is for some to fathom, shorting helps stabilize prices, which is NOT a bad thing. But that's a dissertation I'm not expanding on this morning.
Like with all activities, Longs and Shorts can get our of whack (as greatly demonstrated this last week or so), but I believe our capital, commodity and currency markets are fairly efficient, and typically correct such serious imbalances before too long.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
Looks like Reddit did more to hurt silver/gold prices than to help!
Gold has tanked to under $1800!
Collector
75 Positive BST transactions buying and selling with 45 members and counting!
instagram.com/klnumismatics
I really don't think it is the Reddit. I read that board...as much as I can stand, anyway. There was very little mention of silver.
No way should silver and gold be dropping like this with the huge Dem stimulus incoming!
Gold down $45.50 - that's an impressive one-day drop, especially in light of government & Fed finance. Kinda boggles the mind.
Mild buying opportunity.
I knew it would happen.
I bought 100 shares of slv today.
SLV is an Excellent way to Trade Silver...
Supply and demand is an amazing thing. One year ago, there was essentially Zero "comfortable and fashionable face mask" industry in the US. Now there is, and it's big.
Hopefully, next year that particular industry will be much, much smaller than it is now.
Precious metal supplies tend to increase over time when there is a surge in demand. At high enough prices, in order to produce solar panels and circuit boards, industry will mine and melt as much as necessary, even artistic and collectible items.
But today is not that day.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Glad I didn't buy silver Sunday night, with those massive premiums people are going to be underwater for a very long time.
uh-oh
Keep in mind, gold is still $250 HIGHER than it was a year ago.
You had a lot of pandemic fueled buying. Those positions will be unwound as the panic passes.
It wouldn't surprise me if gold and silver continued to drop some.
People like to make the "inflation argument" but there's been $1 trillion deficits since 2008 and zero inflation with zero interest rates. You've still got 30 year bonds at under 2%, that suggests there is no long-term inflation expectation in the marketplace.
All the inflation dollars are going to the rich people and they arent spending it into the economy. That’s why there is no inflation lol
What the Reddit group did > @jmlanzaf said:
Exactly and there was more against SLV than for it...the media blew it out of proportion including Kitco....very disappointing 🙄
Nah....it was the increase in the DXY....been going back up the last few days. Reddit users were against the SLV movement saying it was a ruse by short sellers and banks
TV did note the dollar rise today, but I was unable to get my software to pull it up to post about it. I forgot almost immediately as I got distracted with the 1804 $5
Gold flailing about but silver strong today.
Ounces in Trust
as of Feb 12, 2021
628,530,539.10
That's interesting. Do you know why the ounces in trust is lower than shares outstanding? Do they loan silver? Is it common for them to be short? [For those that think SLV is more than just paper silver.]
I do not know the answers to those questions. I read somewhere that JP Morgan is the trustee holding the silver, but not whether they can rent it out or use it.