Keep in mind palladium was $900/oz Aug 2018, and $500/oz Feb 2016. This has gone straight up, just like Tesla and Apple lately. Russia controls the majority of palladium production and can influence the price, by stockpiling and creating shortages, to their advantage. However, hybrids, electric vehicles, and platinum/hydrogen fuel cell systems (high tech power demand, not just future vehicles, like Nikola) will make palladium less needed.
Bottom line $3,000 for one ounce of this metal is just crazy expensive when I take a small step back from coin addiction. I really think this is not a lasting flip, either. On the first few, the premium may pop up $ fast, but that should also drop fast. I just don't see that many true collectors holding long term, or other newbies wanting to tie up $3-4k on this, with so many better alternatives.
@Goldminers & @Onastone You both make a good logical point. I'm sure many here are thinking exactly the same way. Even me, the Palladium addict, is starting to lean this way. I'm pondering how many will forgo a September 24th buy and wait to grab a 69 or 70 at a comparative bargain killing. A year or two, no big deal. And the satisfaction of beating the many who didn't wait, just couldn't or din't think about it. There are lots of folks the cause sever head scratching among us enlightened forum members as they buy product still available from the Mint at sometimes moon money. Some of us, not me, profit handsomely from these "rubes" boasting moderately about their flipping prowess. Good luck to you.
I have a twist to deal with in my purchase decision. You probably noticed I will occasionally post the closing figures for Rhodium. Yesterday it was within a whiskers width of a new record. A tiny, comparative, drop of $300 today.
A while ago I bought a quarter ounce at a fraction of today's price. Just as an addition to my precious and base metal collection. At the actual high back on 3/19/20 I talked to a big local dealer and was ready to sell. The next day Rhodium took a dump and the sale fell through.
Tomorrow I will call him and see if the deal is still viable. I could come close to that $3,000 projected cost. So my actual cost comes way down.
I waited on the 2019 reverse proof palladium eagle and bought one at around $1750 in a 69 holder.
I will be patient again. Good luck to you all regardless of the direction in which you swing.
I predict good things to happen to those who wait. I do not even expect a quick sellout now at $3,000. Could be a low mintage "key", but also one with lower demand like some spouses.
$3,000 is just too high for a basic commemorative that looks like the others. Less than 5 years ago we could have had a 5- ounce palladium puck for that price!
But according to the powers in charge, "inflation still is less than 2%", and pigs fly. LOL
The mintage of the 2017 Bullion and 2018-W Proof finishes were limited to a maximum of 15,000 pieces each while the 2019-W Reverse Proof finish is limited to 30,000. The Uncirculated 2020-W American Eagle palladium coin is limited to an issue of 10,000 coins.
The actual sold on the opening day and till the end of the year is too hard to estimate. 2017 and 18 sold the maximum allowed. As pointed out, 2019 is still available.
I'm still on the edge of buy or wait with good advice from this thread being made.
Sell out? No
Half the authorized? Might be closer to the truth but hard to imagine with the close to $3,000 opening price.
What is your prediction of opening sales from Thursday through Sunday?
Wow $3000.... The low mintage is a plus, but I feel like $3000 is a little prohibitive for this issue. Is anyone gonna actually buy this to try and flip it with a $3000 entry point?
I will be cooling my heels as I did with the last issue and wait.
If I get it as a lower price as I did with the last issue I will be content.
If not, C’est la vie. I am not particularly excited about this issues finish.
For me, so far, the reverse proof is the most striking. And I bought it significantly lower than Mint issue price.
I'm still on the edge of buy or wait with good advice from this thread being made.
Sell out? No
Half the authorized? Might be closer to the truth but hard to imagine with the close to $3,000 opening price.
What is your prediction of opening sales from Thursday through Sunday?
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>
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No prediction from me, however, here are some facts:
2019 FDOI sales were 9,086 @ $1,987.50
2019 FWOI sales were 16,690
2019 Second week of sales were a Net Decrease of 3,371 to 13,319
The point is there is no risk for many to purchase and HOPE for a 10,000 CU on Launch Day and If things don't work out....You've got the 7 day Mint return program.
So, for me, the question is how many will purchase hoping for a Launch Day SO and if that doesn't materialize, they just return the product...
It could become self fulfilling at these low numbers. A few sites and groups are now offering small guaranteed profit ($50-100) to buyers. If it sells out other speculative buyers think it was a good play and don't return. You get everyone holding because everyone else is. Ends up people thinking it's rare even though a huge % are just flip sellers.
Kudbegud...
Another consideration...Unless prices go Up between now and next Wednesday, the price for the 2020 Uncirculated Palladium will be reduced to $2,900.00 from $3,000.00 one week from Today...
Palladium is $2,244 ask and , only $2,094 bid right now with the Mint selling tomorrow at $3,000? I feel that this is like another monopoly, engaging in price gouging.
The November 1,945 mintage V75 flipping and resulting price fiasco X10, hasn't even started. The Mint, by law, is supposed to provide to the general public, not to the top 1% who can afford this insane premium, or others who can get bots to actually be able to buy anything.
Edited to say sorry for the rant, but this modern bullion invented scarcity is really getting annoying along with 1,000 other things in the news. And of course gold and silver plummet just after this comes out:
From CNBC today, "JPMorgan Chase is close to paying almost $1 billion to resolve government investigations into the alleged manipulation of metal and Treasuries markets, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. A penalty of that size would be a record for spoofing, which is when sophisticated traders flood markets with orders that they have no intention of actually executing. The practice was banned after the 2008 financial crisis."
Tomorrow could be a sell out even with the high price. Blog posts see a mini-frenzy of flippers. I have never gone that route and only one pre-sold the first year of the 5 oz pucks.
Still that is a high premium the mint is asking.
@Kudbegud said:
Tomorrow could be a sell out even with the high price. Blog posts see a mini-frenzy of flippers. I have never gone that route and only one pre-sold the first year of the 5 oz pucks.
Still that is a high premium the mint is asking.
Who is going to buy these from the flippers except maybe some people at home, watching the TV sellers, who don't know they are being gouged? They will hear something like "Now we have an ultra rare, lowest mintage, gem uncirculated, first day of issue, 2020 palladium coin, yours for only $4,995, but we only have 100 numbered, so get them in the next hour,"
The only saving grace of this very speculative issue, given the huge premium right out of the gate, is that you have that seven day return policy. Otherwise, one hell of a gamble unless you have an immediate buyer which so far appears to be a very slim margin and hardly worth the effort.
My goal of buying to hold does not require an immediate purchase. I do much prefer the slab versions and would be just as happy with a 69 given that even the 70s, as evidenced by a PCGS 70 grade only buy thread on the BST, have variations “no problem coins” in quality.
Next step, stickers on modern 70s.
Miles... I have that restriction in my buys of 70 grade coins because you might be surprised how many coins I get in with toning or spots on them that most customers do not want. Gold spouse are notorious for this. To a lesser extent, proof gold eagles. Silver eagles... we know the story. Palladium might have a print on it. Etc., etc.
Now, understand, these coins can be professionally conserved and often get restored perfectly. Not always, but often enough. But, this is nothing I want to pay for and deal with when I buy a 70 grade coin.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I predict a sell out in less than10 minutes. I also predict the window to make money on this product will be very short lived. I wouldn't buy one without haven't it already sold. At the price it's just not that exciting.
A problem I have with the coin (and for complete “disclosure” I am buying a few for consignment to my son) is that the “Low” 10,000 Mintage could become meaningless if next year the Mint decides to sell a Mintage of 6,000 or 7,500. We have seen this with many of the precious metal products already. I have no confidence that this “low” Mintage actually stays a low Mintage in the future. The early years of the proof platinum series appeared to have reasonable low mintages only to turn out to be the super common high mintages.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@DotStore said:
I'd guess by 12:15 they go Unavailable...
You must mean 12:15 tomorrow after the order limit is removed, and that is even a maybe.
haha -- I'm pretty certain it will happen today... but then you have the cancellations and all, so there will be the opportunity in the morning just like most of these releases...
Comments
The 2019 Reverse Proof Palladium has been re-priced to $3,000.00...
Keep in mind palladium was $900/oz Aug 2018, and $500/oz Feb 2016. This has gone straight up, just like Tesla and Apple lately. Russia controls the majority of palladium production and can influence the price, by stockpiling and creating shortages, to their advantage. However, hybrids, electric vehicles, and platinum/hydrogen fuel cell systems (high tech power demand, not just future vehicles, like Nikola) will make palladium less needed.
Bottom line $3,000 for one ounce of this metal is just crazy expensive when I take a small step back from coin addiction. I really think this is not a lasting flip, either. On the first few, the premium may pop up $ fast, but that should also drop fast. I just don't see that many true collectors holding long term, or other newbies wanting to tie up $3-4k on this, with so many better alternatives.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
And you are absolutely right....there it is. Now I definitely am not buying one Thursday.
@Goldminers & @Onastone You both make a good logical point. I'm sure many here are thinking exactly the same way. Even me, the Palladium addict, is starting to lean this way. I'm pondering how many will forgo a September 24th buy and wait to grab a 69 or 70 at a comparative bargain killing. A year or two, no big deal. And the satisfaction of beating the many who didn't wait, just couldn't or din't think about it. There are lots of folks the cause sever head scratching among us enlightened forum members as they buy product still available from the Mint at sometimes moon money. Some of us, not me, profit handsomely from these "rubes" boasting moderately about their flipping prowess. Good luck to you.
I have a twist to deal with in my purchase decision. You probably noticed I will occasionally post the closing figures for Rhodium. Yesterday it was within a whiskers width of a new record. A tiny, comparative, drop of $300 today.
A while ago I bought a quarter ounce at a fraction of today's price. Just as an addition to my precious and base metal collection. At the actual high back on 3/19/20 I talked to a big local dealer and was ready to sell. The next day Rhodium took a dump and the sale fell through.
Tomorrow I will call him and see if the deal is still viable. I could come close to that $3,000 projected cost. So my actual cost comes way down.
I waited on the 2019 reverse proof palladium eagle and bought one at around $1750 in a 69 holder.
I will be patient again. Good luck to you all regardless of the direction in which you swing.
I predict good things to happen to those who wait. I do not even expect a quick sellout now at $3,000. Could be a low mintage "key", but also one with lower demand like some spouses.
$3,000 is just too high for a basic commemorative that looks like the others. Less than 5 years ago we could have had a 5- ounce palladium puck for that price!
But according to the powers in charge, "inflation still is less than 2%", and pigs fly. LOL
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Yeah Miles, Palladium does tend to swing up and down. Dramatically sometimes.
One un-anticipated result of waiting:
Low sales could kill the production for 2021 and beyond.
Palladium coin production is mandated by Federal Law. As long as there is Palladium mining in the United States, we will be getting Palladium coins...
Take a look over on the BST and see what Mitch is paying for PQ 70s for previous issues.
Telling.
Remind me Mitch's forum name? I checked the first page of BST and didn't see Pd in the titles.
I would love one, but no way will I pay $3,000 for it.
Well, Pd is retreating by $74 so far today. That won't take the mint price to $2k as we'd like but....
Wondercoin, page three last I checked over on the BST.
Monday update. 3 days to go.
I'll post tomorrow and Wednesday. I'm hoping @cagcrisp will post his calculated Thursday opening price.
I wonder how many they actually minted.
The mintage of the 2017 Bullion and 2018-W Proof finishes were limited to a maximum of 15,000 pieces each while the 2019-W Reverse Proof finish is limited to 30,000.
The Uncirculated 2020-W American Eagle palladium coin is limited to an issue of 10,000 coins.
The actual sold on the opening day and till the end of the year is too hard to estimate. 2017 and 18 sold the maximum allowed. As pointed out, 2019 is still available.
I'm still on the edge of buy or wait with good advice from this thread being made.
Sell out? No
Half the authorized? Might be closer to the truth but hard to imagine with the close to $3,000 opening price.
What is your prediction of opening sales from Thursday through Sunday?
2 day to go
With such a low mintage, perhaps it will sell out despite the high cost.
I think it sells out same day.
Pricing will be posted by the Mint Wednesday afternoon shortly after 2PM ET
Price will be $3,000.00...
Wow $3000.... The low mintage is a plus, but I feel like $3000 is a little prohibitive for this issue. Is anyone gonna actually buy this to try and flip it with a $3000 entry point?
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, and coinlieutenant.
I will be cooling my heels as I did with the last issue and wait.
If I get it as a lower price as I did with the last issue I will be content.
If not, C’est la vie. I am not particularly excited about this issues finish.
For me, so far, the reverse proof is the most striking. And I bought it significantly lower than Mint issue price.
Looks like someone is offering something for the Palladium on BST
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1044404/palladium-unc-going-on-sale-thur-9-24-have-a-small-group-and-want-to-buy-for-me/p1?new=1
At 2100 bid on the metal—900 premium is a joke. There is no upside on this one.
>
>
>
No prediction from me, however, here are some facts:
2019 FDOI sales were 9,086 @ $1,987.50
2019 FWOI sales were 16,690
2019 Second week of sales were a Net Decrease of 3,371 to 13,319
The point is there is no risk for many to purchase and HOPE for a 10,000 CU on Launch Day and If things don't work out....You've got the 7 day Mint return program.
So, for me, the question is how many will purchase hoping for a Launch Day SO and if that doesn't materialize, they just return the product...
It could become self fulfilling at these low numbers. A few sites and groups are now offering small guaranteed profit ($50-100) to buyers. If it sells out other speculative buyers think it was a good play and don't return. You get everyone holding because everyone else is. Ends up people thinking it's rare even though a huge % are just flip sellers.
This one has me in the worst flip-flop in my head of buy-wait. I'll post the last closing price at 11:00 am my time today.
The $3,000.00 price has been Posted...
Kudbegud...
Another consideration...Unless prices go Up between now and next Wednesday, the price for the 2020 Uncirculated Palladium will be reduced to $2,900.00 from $3,000.00 one week from Today...
Palladium is $2,244 ask and , only $2,094 bid right now with the Mint selling tomorrow at $3,000? I feel that this is like another monopoly, engaging in price gouging.
The November 1,945 mintage V75 flipping and resulting price fiasco X10, hasn't even started. The Mint, by law, is supposed to provide to the general public, not to the top 1% who can afford this insane premium, or others who can get bots to actually be able to buy anything.
Edited to say sorry for the rant, but this modern bullion invented scarcity is really getting annoying along with 1,000 other things in the news. And of course gold and silver plummet just after this comes out:
From CNBC today, "JPMorgan Chase is close to paying almost $1 billion to resolve government investigations into the alleged manipulation of metal and Treasuries markets, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. A penalty of that size would be a record for spoofing, which is when sophisticated traders flood markets with orders that they have no intention of actually executing. The practice was banned after the 2008 financial crisis."
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Tomorrow could be a sell out even with the high price. Blog posts see a mini-frenzy of flippers. I have never gone that route and only one pre-sold the first year of the 5 oz pucks.
Still that is a high premium the mint is asking.
Who is going to buy these from the flippers except maybe some people at home, watching the TV sellers, who don't know they are being gouged? They will hear something like "Now we have an ultra rare, lowest mintage, gem uncirculated, first day of issue, 2020 palladium coin, yours for only $4,995, but we only have 100 numbered, so get them in the next hour,"
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I predict graded MS69's will be available for around $2,500 in less than a month.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
And I will take the "under" on a sell out tomorrow. No damn way at 10k. Maybe at 3 or 4k...
Well, just Love coins, period.
Look at the bright side, you'll probably save $4.95 on s&h with loyalty purchases.
Entirely possible. Two of the immediate flip options pulled out.
I’ll take the Over.
Between tomorrow noon and Monday noon you’ll see the CU sign hanging Up.
You will also see a Boatload of mornings where these will be Available...
The only saving grace of this very speculative issue, given the huge premium right out of the gate, is that you have that seven day return policy. Otherwise, one hell of a gamble unless you have an immediate buyer which so far appears to be a very slim margin and hardly worth the effort.
My goal of buying to hold does not require an immediate purchase. I do much prefer the slab versions and would be just as happy with a 69 given that even the 70s, as evidenced by a PCGS 70 grade only buy thread on the BST, have variations “no problem coins” in quality.
Next step, stickers on modern 70s.
Miles... I have that restriction in my buys of 70 grade coins because you might be surprised how many coins I get in with toning or spots on them that most customers do not want. Gold spouse are notorious for this. To a lesser extent, proof gold eagles. Silver eagles... we know the story. Palladium might have a print on it. Etc., etc.
Now, understand, these coins can be professionally conserved and often get restored perfectly. Not always, but often enough. But, this is nothing I want to pay for and deal with when I buy a 70 grade coin.
Wondercoin
I predict a sell out in less than10 minutes. I also predict the window to make money on this product will be very short lived. I wouldn't buy one without haven't it already sold. At the price it's just not that exciting.
A problem I have with the coin (and for complete “disclosure” I am buying a few for consignment to my son) is that the “Low” 10,000 Mintage could become meaningless if next year the Mint decides to sell a Mintage of 6,000 or 7,500. We have seen this with many of the precious metal products already. I have no confidence that this “low” Mintage actually stays a low Mintage in the future. The early years of the proof platinum series appeared to have reasonable low mintages only to turn out to be the super common high mintages.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
The sale is on. Got $3000? Six minutes in and still available.
I'd guess by 12:15 they go Unavailable...
I guess they go into "back order"
You must mean 12:15 tomorrow after the order limit is removed, and that is even a maybe.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
texting my friend and was told it ran out of steam -- Just under 1,400 remaining at the moment...
How do people know this?
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, and coinlieutenant.
50% premium and still on sale
haha -- I'm pretty certain it will happen today... but then you have the cancellations and all, so there will be the opportunity in the morning just like most of these releases...