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Corona Virus the Black Swan? Market turmoil seems to be ramping up...

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  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,826 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,863 ✭✭✭✭✭

    futures earnings are unknown and going down. how do you put a valuation on that?

    Very conservatively.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,826 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    futures earnings are unknown and going down. how do you put a valuation on that?

    Very conservatively.

    dust off the fundamentals and give them a look.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • ShadyDaveShadyDave Posts: 2,199 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Wow, metals are getting hammered along with pretty much everything else, I'm surprised by that. I guess toilet paper is the most valuable commodity on earth right now.

    Silver down over 5%;
    Gold down 4%+;
    Palladium down 12%

    US markets down 7%+

    :#

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,826 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ShadyDave said:
    Wow, metals are getting hammered along with pretty much everything else, I'm surprised by that. I guess toilet paper is the most valuable commodity on earth right now.

    Silver down over 5%;
    Gold down 4%+;
    Palladium down 12%

    US markets down 7%+

    :#

    almost 100,000 gold contracts sold in a very, very short time period. Smells like fish. Other PMs, as always, follow the lead.

    US markets however, reflecting continued distaste of investors, showing steady declines for a much longer period of time.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,863 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I don’t see any blood in the streets. Fundamentals? I’m wondering how many people know what that even means anymore.

    I have a hunch that the concept of fundamental analysis will be making a slow comeback during the next five years or so.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The stock market was waay overdue for a bear market, and for the broken clocks to be "right" again. RIP greatest bull market in a generation.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,826 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 12, 2020 11:31AM

    RIP those who who failed to heed the broken clocks.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    RIP those who who failed to heed the broken clocks.

    Agree...The correction was long overdue, but I did take some profits in silver while the going was hot.

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,826 ✭✭✭✭✭

    yep, waitin' on some bonus bucks to reload.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • RobMRobM Posts: 552 ✭✭✭

    Futures already pointing to -700 drop in DJIA at open on Friday the 13th.

  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,082 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ShadyDave said:
    Wow, metals are getting hammered along with pretty much everything else, I'm surprised by that. I guess toilet paper is the most valuable commodity on earth right now.

    Silver down over 5%;
    Gold down 4%+;
    Palladium down 12%

    US markets down 7%+

    :#

    Ya gotta take care of that little guy. He can make your life miserable sometimes.

    theknowitalltroll;
  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,144 ✭✭✭✭✭

    As long as the stock market continues to puke itself out, the metals will probably take hits; assets like gold and silver are being sold to cover those market losses/margin calls.

    Though the losses in the metals is not pleasant to see, keep in mind the percentage losses appear to be comparatively less than in the stock market. So in a way they are showing to be a 'safer' than the stock market as so far are retaining more value. Of course, cash is certainly looking good at least for now.

    ----- kj
  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,144 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Had a chance to see those empty Walmart store shelves yesterday in Lincoln Nebraska. Talked to an employee, she said non of their stores have any toilet paper, and their warehouses do not either.

    Another online source indicated that Walmart stores can no longer order what they want from their warehouses? Instead, the warehouses are now selectively sending trucks to the various stores with supplies, what supplies are in the trucks is what the store receives and not necessarily what they want. In other words, a type of rationing starting? I have not verified this, but could make sense on why more shelves are showing up emptier. Perhaps warehouse supplies are starting to be affected?

    ----- kj
  • rcmb3220rcmb3220 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭✭

    @tincup said:
    Had a chance to see those empty Walmart store shelves yesterday in Lincoln Nebraska. Talked to an employee, she said non of their stores have any toilet paper, and their warehouses do not either.

    Another online source indicated that Walmart stores can no longer order what they want from their warehouses? Instead, the warehouses are now selectively sending trucks to the various stores with supplies, what supplies are in the trucks is what the store receives and not necessarily what they want. In other words, a type of rationing starting? I have not verified this, but could make sense on why more shelves are showing up emptier. Perhaps warehouse supplies are starting to be affected?

    The lack of stock is just moving up in the supply chain. It won’t end up being an issue unless manufacturers or farms, etc start closing.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,147 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ShadyDave said:
    Hopefully he is OK, last time he was on this forum was 2/17/20.

    Interesting that he signed off tte day before the market topped. Probably just a coincidence. Haha!!🙂

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,826 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 13, 2020 4:45PM

    that was a long visit to costco.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,091 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 14, 2020 5:02AM

    important bit of advice.

    now that things are closing, may as well shelter in place to prevent spreading this further. I'm not in any panic -- in fact I think it is too early to close things -- but since people are in a panic, may as well keep off the streets.

    right now, there are not enough ventilators in hospitals. passing this in large numbers will cause deaths from lack of equipment. perhaps you or a fellow forumite might need a ventilator

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • fivecentsfivecents Posts: 11,207 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ShadyDave said:
    Wow, metals are getting hammered along with pretty much everything else, I'm surprised by that. I guess toilet paper is the most valuable commodity on earth right now.

    Silver down over 5%;
    Gold down 4%+;
    Palladium down 12%

    US markets down 7%+

    :#

    Firearms, accessories and ammo are being panic bought.. Fear of looters has caused even the gun hating libs to buy guns and ammo. Great for 2A.
    PSA Armory has been try to employ "Commonality of use" with their firearms sells for years now. A grass roots movement to get as many guns in the hands of citizens as possible.
    I'm in no way connected to PSA. I just find the whole "Commonality of use" Fascinating.

  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,144 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 14, 2020 7:12AM

    While I am not at all inferring that the Coronavirus is not dangerous and a concern (it certainly is easily spread and can be devastating to the lungs, and deaths are resulting).... I do wonder if this reaction could turn out to be a modern day.... 'tulip mania'. RE prices of masks, toilet paper, hand sanitizer, etc.

    But I am taking it seriously; at this point we are caught up in it, and have to assume the worst.

    ----- kj
  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,144 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @ShadyDave said:
    Hopefully he is OK, last time he was on this forum was 2/17/20.

    Interesting that he signed off tte day before the market topped. Probably just a coincidence. Haha!!🙂

    Cohodk, good to know your are still around. Though I do not know any specifics with your work, I do know you are in the financial sector so these past several weeks have probably been busy and interesting for you.

    Looks like there aren't any safe havens right now, unless one has a warehouse full of toilet paper.

    ----- kj
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,826 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 14, 2020 8:36AM

    @tincup said:
    While I am not at all inferring that the Coronavirus is not dangerous and a concern (it certainly is easily spread and can be devastating to the lungs, and deaths are resulting).... I do wonder if this reaction could turn out to be a modern day.... 'tulip mania'. RE prices of masks, toilet paper, hand sanitizer, etc.

    But I am taking it seriously; at this point we are caught up in it, and have to assume the worst.

    There is a difference between greed and need.

    "This is a level of disruption that the world hasn’t seen in generations." --- Caitlin Johnstone

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • hchcoinhchcoin Posts: 4,829 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @ShadyDave said:
    Hopefully he is OK, last time he was on this forum was 2/17/20.

    Interesting that he signed off tte day before the market topped. Probably just a coincidence. Haha!!🙂

    Welcome back. We missed you.

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @hchcoin said:

    @cohodk said:

    @ShadyDave said:
    Hopefully he is OK, last time he was on this forum was 2/17/20.

    Interesting that he signed off tte day before the market topped. Probably just a coincidence. Haha!!🙂

    Welcome back. We missed you.

    Doe his return signal
    the market bottom?
    🤔

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,863 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 14, 2020 11:56AM

    Futures already pointing to -700 drop in DJIA at open on Friday the 13th.

    Yep, and then the market magically levitated all day and finished with a +1,000 pt. bump in the last hour.

    A 2,700 pt. surge of buying. In a single day.

    Hmmmmmmm………..sounds fishy to me. I guess the economy is cured now. And government finances are cured now. The deficits have disappeared? The national debt is getting smaller, right? And pension funds are cured now.

    Hillary said it best - "the suspension of disbelief"

    Just sayin'.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,144 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The helicopters have been started and are flying. The Fed has announced it is going to use up to 1.5 TRILLION to infuse into the market as needed.

    The White House briefing on Friday also seemed to instill more confidence with the State of Emergency announcement and the other actions announced... if I recall the market was doing a steep climb when this was taking place.

    ----- kj
  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,144 ✭✭✭✭✭

    And speaking of 1.5 trillion dollars... where does that money come from?? I ask the question in earnest... I am not savvy on how the Feb system works in regard to stock market bailouts... only know that 1.5 trillion is not pocket change.

    ----- kj
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,091 ✭✭✭✭✭

    went to walmart in the middle of nowhere.

    no toilet paper, paper towels very,very,very close to gone. bleach gone, no hand sanitizer and ditto for the hand soap to nearly being gone.

    do the shoppers wipe down the cart handle before they use them? I did.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @tincup asked “ And speaking of 1.5 trillion dollars... where does that money come from?? ”

    That’s a fair question.

    A. If it is Federal government spending, the Treasury borrows the money (as t bills, notes, or bonds), assisted by private sector intermediaries.

    B. If it is not spending but Federal Reserve intervention in the financial markets, the Fed can literally create cash at will and buy financial assets.

    In theory, too much of A should send interest rates up. The Fed can intervene with B to facilitate the govt borrowing; in normal circumstances, this should be inflationary. The Fed would typically claim to be intervening not to facilitate spending per se but to stabilize markets, interest rates, and inflation. As we all know, from about 1965-1980, the “fine tuning” veered seriously off course. I think a majority of people on this board expect that to happen again, only worse.

    Higashiyama
  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 14, 2020 2:41PM

    PS: more in the context of your question, if the Fed is talking about providing 1.5 trillion in liquidity, that means providing short term loans to any bank that needs cash. Basically they are just saying that will make sure there is no cash crunch; this is something the Fed is very good at.

    Higashiyama
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,826 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,144 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Thanks for the info Higashiyama. Not sure exactly what form the intervention is to be (or is); just remember seeing the 1.5 trillion figure. Not chump change.

    ----- kj
  • chesterbchesterb Posts: 961 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I wish the WHO would treat this as a bad virus and focus on good hygiene and avoid crowds if you're immuno-compromised. You can't quarantine the world and the hysteria and closures will do more harm than good.

    It's like when we older guys were kids. What did the Mom's do when a kid in the neighborhood came down with chicken pox? They had chicken pox parties!

    It's a bad virus but hysteria, panic and insanity is ruling the day.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,863 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I wish the WHO would treat this as a bad virus and focus on good hygiene and avoid crowds if you're immuno-compromised. You can't quarantine the world and the hysteria and closures will do more harm than good.
    It's like when we older guys were kids. What did the Mom's do when a kid in the neighborhood came down with chicken pox? They had chicken pox parties!
    It's a bad virus but hysteria, panic and insanity is ruling the day.

    +1

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Speaking of the World Health Organization, upon confirmation that the coronavirus does not affect canines, the pets were released from quarantine.

    Soo,

    WHo let the dogs out?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • BLUEJAYWAYBLUEJAYWAY Posts: 9,153 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @tincup said:
    And speaking of 1.5 trillion dollars... where does that money come from?? I ask the question in earnest... I am not savvy on how the Feb system works in regard to stock market bailouts... only know that 1.5 trillion is not pocket change.

    Out of thin air?

    Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
  • BLUEJAYWAYBLUEJAYWAY Posts: 9,153 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 15, 2020 1:36AM

    Nice touch displaying the Dow ticker as the President spoke on TV Friday.

    Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,147 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Baley said:

    @hchcoin said:

    @cohodk said:

    @ShadyDave said:
    Hopefully he is OK, last time he was on this forum was 2/17/20.

    Interesting that he signed off tte day before the market topped. Probably just a coincidence. Haha!!🙂

    Welcome back. We missed you.

    Doe his return signal
    the market bottom?
    🤔

    21 14 12 9 11 5 12 25

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,826 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 15, 2020 9:50PM

    Biggest bull trap ever.

    Did you see it coming? LOL

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • I call it a "black bat" event.
    Started with the China bat virus, then the stock market crash, and the oil wars.

  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,389 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Just had a call with one of my colleagues in Warsaw. Limited social groups outside at 5, can go outside for exercise/pet walking, can go to the grocery store, no open bars/restaurants, and ALL air traffic grounded - no domestic/international flights period.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,091 ✭✭✭✭✭

    lots of crowded spaces -- like trains and buses

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,144 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @DrBuster said:
    Just had a call with one of my colleagues in Warsaw. Limited social groups outside at 5, can go outside for exercise/pet walking, can go to the grocery store, no open bars/restaurants, and ALL air traffic grounded - no domestic/international flights period.

    Actually sounds more effective than what we are doing here at this point. The U.S. in general is limiting groups to 50... that is still a lot of exposure possibilities.

    ----- kj
  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Here's a little quiz about market volatility, looking at Friday/Monday results.

    Supposed the market is up 10 % one day, followed by a drop of 10 % the next day. How many trading days will it take before the market drops by 50 %?

    Higashiyama
  • element159element159 Posts: 513 ✭✭✭
    edited March 17, 2020 6:31PM

    @Higashiyama said:
    Here's a little quiz about market volatility, looking at Friday/Monday results.

    Supposed the market is up 10 % one day, followed by a drop of 10 % the next day. How many trading days will it take before the market drops by 50 %?

    log(0.5) / (log(1.1) + log(0.9)) = 69 days.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,826 ✭✭✭✭✭

    x/-x = 13 trading days

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,863 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Gold down -0.61%

    Dow Futures down -3.94%

    That's been the general pattern until they hammer gold like they do on every 3rd day or so.

    Wild times.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,144 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Though everything has - and continues to take beatings, having diversification such as gold and silver physical IMO is not a bad thing.

    Amazing the price difference between physical silver... and the quoted New York spot price. Large demand for that physical stuff now, and appears to be less and less around.

    ----- kj
  • RobMRobM Posts: 552 ✭✭✭

    I would not be surprised if markets are closed by, or over, this coming weekend. Munchkin said he doesn't plan on it, but i think it is a distinct possibility. Keep in mind that S&P500 PE ratio is still 10+% above historical median which would tend to suggest that a recession is not even priced in yet.

  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,144 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It the markets are closed... hope it is only a very brief time like a time out sit in the corner moment. While no one likes to see the blood bath, it needs to sort itself out.

    ----- kj
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