@tincup said:
Perhaps the well know quote applies: " We need a bigger boat! " (Jaws was an awesome movie back in it's time.
Then again Princess, Norwegian, Royal Caribbean,etc., have plenty of bigger boats.
Not quite what I had in mind, but good one! (I tried to laugh, but it hurt too much at this stage of the game).
But there you go... if they don't have enough of the helicopters to keep up... enlist the cruise industry! Boatloads of bailout money (ouch... tried to laugh again )
$1000 will only make one house payment for all the service sector workers being kept at home. It shouldn't be a blanket distribution, it should go where the hurt is.
@cohodk said:
Market needs an injection of about 3 months GDP. It will get it.
"Market" historically means banks and Wall St., sometimes businesses.
"Market" needs to become the consumers and the employees as far as assistance goes. The historical "market" squandered their last major assistance with stock buybacks and bonuses.
Hopefully this experience will cool off dependence on broken foreign supply chains and encourage domestic production. Last I checked "production" was less than nine percent of the US employment rate.
How could any serious business person who likes real assets and precious metals trade in this market safely? This pandemic could devolve into a deflationary depression in which case most all money takes a backseat to the need to survive.
My daughter, who works in an OR in a hospital, told me today she saw a hospital co-worker, leaving for the day and in the parking garage, carrying a trash bag filled with toilet paper and paper towels; said she looked mighty ashamed and guilty. But that's what is now happening now and where we are at.... can't find TP in stores so you get it where you can. The need to survive.
What happens if/when it gets worse?
Not in any hurry to sell any physical metals at this point; have kept some for insurance policy and diversification and will continue to do so.
Hopefully this experience will cool off dependence on broken foreign supply chains and encourage domestic production. Last I checked "production" was less than nine percent of the US employment rate.
I'm old enough to remember the post-WWII interest in fostering international enmeshment as a way of forestalling additional ruinous wars among imperialistic nation states rivaling over zero-sum resources, markets and influences (the UN, free-trade deals, the IMF, the WTO, EU, etc., etc.). The impact was, indeed, revolutionary. On the plus side, it did create powerful mutual interests in favor of following the rules and cooperating. It also vastly improved economic efficiency, incentivized shared technologies and created value for heretofore impoverished pools of labor throughout the world.
However, we didn't adequately anticipate the disruptions (loss of manufacturing jobs in markets that had been protected), the cultural resistance to homogenizing values (Islamic fundamentalism, Putin, Brexit), and, of course, the vulnerability of international supply chains to events such as pandemics.
I don't see how it's either possible or desirable to go back to the days of national independence from "foreign supply chains," lest we recreate the competitions that in the past led to horrendous wars, indisputably made all the more horrendous now by technology.
We've only started to think about how to handle these experienced and yet-to-be-experienced disruptions, resistances and vulnerabilities. Andrew Yang's thinking about things such as universal guaranteed income constituted some green shoots. And I expect we'll emerge from this pandemic with other creative ideas, hopefully other than going back to a dysfunctional past.
I don't see how it's either possible or desirable to go back to the days of national independence from "foreign supply chains," lest we recreate the competitions that in the past led to horrendous wars, indisputably made all the more horrendous now by technology.
We've only started to think about how to handle these experienced and yet-to-be-experienced disruptions, resistances and vulnerabilities. Andrew Yang's thinking about things such as universal guaranteed income constituted some green shoots. And I expect we'll emerge from this pandemic with other creative ideas, hopefully other than going back to a dysfunctional past.
"National independence from foreign supply chains" helps ensure employment for the nation's workers. It also ensure a shorter supply chain, something US markets are about to learn is critical.
I don't agree with offering up a portion of my hard earned dollars to provide a universal guaranteed income. I have no problem with guaranteeing the opportunity for others to work hard for their own dollars. "Give a man a fish, feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, feed him for a lifetime."
He warned us in 2007 and some listened while others laughed.
He's been warning us since then to be prepared once again and they continued to laugh.
And sadly, some think fixing a virus problem will fix the economy.
His latest warning:
"This pin has pricked the biggest bubble that the Federal Reserve has ever inflated. And now the air is coming out. And at this point, it doesn’t even matter what happens to that pin... The damage is already done. The cat’s out of this bag. This bubble has popped. And there is a lot of air that’s going to come out of it.”
To the OP, it was the psychological trigger but not the cause. Economically, there is more reason to believe it's a lot less costly to let the pandemic run its course than shutting down a noticeable proportion of the economy. To take the current course of action was a psychological decision. I am not saying it should have been otherwise, just stating what should be plainly evident.
I have said it before that I thought that recent (as in at least the entire 20 years of this century) experience is the greatest asset, credit and debt mania in the history of civilization.
Is it over? I consider it prudent to treat it as such. I didn't own any "risk assets" during the entire run up from 2008 but see short term opportunity in the near future.
I also expect prices to be much lower later. My preference is to own decent dividend yielding stocks but most of it has been so absurdly overpriced on a historical basis with disproportionately abysmally weak balance sheets that I wasn't interested in trying to find the very low proportion of "reasonably" priced stocks.
Andrew Yang's thinking about things such as universal guaranteed income constituted some green shoots.
The problem with income redistribution is the negative impact it has on the incentive to actually produce positive work product by the producers of the world. Define slavery. Or serfdom.
Who makes these decisions? Not the ones whose income is being redistributed - I can give innumerable examples just in Congress and past administrations for starters.
There is greed on both ends of the ladder. As much on the bottom rungs as on the top.
An able-bodied person who is content to feed off government handouts/bribes is not a lot different than a corporate board who siphon off a disproportionate income stream from a company that they had no hand in building.
There are those who are mentally or physically impaired who simply can't function in society - I'm not talking about them.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The world is realizing how much of people's spending is actually discretionary, and how much of their time is usually made up of enjoyable waste. Professional sports and live music shows?
Heh.
I have an idea to fix the economy. A new national lottery. Proceeds used to assist individuals and corporations negatively affected by covid19. It will be known as MAGA Millions.
The problem with income redistribution is the negative impact it has on the incentive to actually produce positive work product by the producers of the world. Define slavery. Or serfdom.
I wasn't necessarily endorsing Yang's specific proposal for $1000/mo distribution (how dare I on this Board, replete as we are with self-made success stories emblematic of the American Dream, myself included).
Rather, I was asserting that we must needs have new ways of thinking about how society and culture are to weather the inexorable influences of global interdependence and the new attendant challenges (such as this burgeoning pandemic). My thesis was that returning to the era of nationalist competition was neither desirable nor possible,
Rather, I was asserting that we must needs have new ways of thinking about how society and culture are to weather the inexorable influences of global interdependence and the new attendant challenges (such as this burgeoning pandemic). My thesis was that returning to the era of nationalist competition was neither desirable nor possible,
no problem once a virus wipes out globalization. nationalist competition is what made our economy great. We're finding out now (supply chain breakdowns) that economic independence is not a bad thing for consumers and fact is it is a better thing for workers.
The bubble has burst. Now we wait to see if the fuse has been lit on the $25 trillion debt bomb or the $550 trillion derivatives bomb. Keep your seat belts fastened.
@Higashiyama said: @Baley said “ The world is realizing how much of people's spending is actually discretionary”
It will interesting to see if consumption patterns/preferences are forever changed, even if the virus itself is defeated in a relatively short time.
An analysis of the store shelves is a market researcher's dream, we're trying new products and recipes already at home, it reminds me of traveling and shopping in foreign stores in more remote locations..
I'm hearing all this news about desparately needing hundreds of thousands of ventilators at $25-50k each. Not trying to be a pessimist or cruel, but not sure why any are being bought now. I was reading a Chinese (Wuhan) clinical study where of 55 victims that received either invasive or noninvasive ventilator treatment, only 3% survived. The entire study was just 191 subjects. What am I missing here? Maybe if more ventilators were available they could be used earlier with more efficacy. But just on the statistics presented, it seems like a great expense for a poor outcome.
Also, hearing even more about desparate need for ventilators without any data on outcomes in US. In China, wuhan study showed minimal results with ventilators. Why is US clamoring for them?
Went to a gunshop yesterday and used it as a barometer of society. People are prepping for a worst case scenario, bought the last two boxes of .357 mag ammo and the gun sales were fast and furious. The shop owner has sold more ammo in the last two weeks than any other 2 week period. Basically sold before he can put it out. Things are starting to get funny around here and we are 1 month into a 4 month cycle. God bless us all.
About six weeks ago I thought I was smart bidding Europe cuz of being quarantined after my China layovers late January. Didn't want to do that again. So here I am in the midst of a week long trip between Germany, France and England. Ugh! What a PITA! Attitudes are changing quickly here, going from annoyance to 'distancing' to almost ghost-town status. My concern is that Europe doesn't peak and flatten out in new cases over the next 5-7 weeks as has happened in China. I don't see the levels of quarantine here as in China and speculate Europe's ramp up may take longer, numbers higher(?) Same goes for the US.
I had an interesting night on my flights from Stansted (England) to Paris to Cologne. Europe's airspace is tight and very busy and the radios are noisy. It was Saturday evening, 8pm. I expected traffic to still be somewhat busy. I was not prepared for the virtual silence on the radios. London barely spoke to us. Once on Paris control they cleared us on a vector to intercept the ILS for runway 09L fifty miles out. That never happens. The only other aircraft we heard was another FedEx flight that left 5 minutes behind us. On first contact, Paris Tower said we were cleared to land, you're #1. Usually clearance isn't giving until much later. There was a low cloud deck over Paris, as we broke through the whole airport was in view, there were no beacons from aircraft taxing, looked eerie. We experienced the same on our flight to Cologne.
European airlines have parked (all?) their aircraft. Lufthansa, in Frankfurt, filled up their ramps. Extra aircraft were parked on runway 07L. That's crazy.
@RobM said:
No toilet paper... None. This aftn at Giant supermarket in baltimore metro area.
Lots of empty shelves in the last two weeks here in the Sacramento region. Walmart, CVS, Walgreens, Costco, Safeway..zero TP. and sparse on the soups, cereals, meats, and frozen foods. I'm getting my garden started now
BST references: jdimmick;Gerard;wondercoin;claychaser;agentjim007;CCC2010;guitarwes;TAMU15;Zubie;mariner67;segoja;Smittys;kaz;CARDSANDCOINS;FadeToBlack; jrt103;tizofthe;bronze6827;mkman;Scootersdad;AllCoinsRule;coindeuce;dmarks;piecesofme; and many more
While announcing $4Trillion in forgiveable business loans and cash payments for individuals/families, Mnuchin made the following slip: "We need to get the money into the economy now. If we do that, we think we can stabilize the economy. This isn’t the financial crisis that’s going to go on for years ... We’re going to do whatever we need to do to win this war."
There is greed on both ends of the ladder. As much on the bottom rungs as on the top.
An able-bodied person who is content to feed off government handouts/bribes is not a lot different than a corporate board who siphon off a disproportionate income stream from a company that they had no hand in building.
I have experienced some inconvenience but no turmoil. Pre March 10th my assets were 1% stock, 29% cash, 40% PM's and 30% real estate. Thanks to the bounce back in metals today my net worth is down 3% since early March.
Comments
I'm not sure the 1.5 trillion dollars the Fed announced it was willing to use to prop up the system is enough.
Perhaps the well know quote applies: " We need a bigger boat! " (Jaws was an awesome movie back in it's time).
Then again Princess, Norwegian, Royal Caribbean,etc., have plenty of bigger boats.
Not quite what I had in mind, but good one! (I tried to laugh, but it hurt too much at this stage of the game).
But there you go... if they don't have enough of the helicopters to keep up... enlist the cruise industry! Boatloads of bailout money (ouch... tried to laugh again
)
$1000 will only make one house payment for all the service sector workers being kept at home. It shouldn't be a blanket distribution, it should go where the hurt is.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Market needs an injection of about 3 months GDP. It will get it.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Market" historically means banks and Wall St., sometimes businesses.
"Market" needs to become the consumers and the employees as far as assistance goes. The historical "market" squandered their last major assistance with stock buybacks and bonuses.
Hopefully this experience will cool off dependence on broken foreign supply chains and encourage domestic production. Last I checked "production" was less than nine percent of the US employment rate.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
A President wants to get re-elected.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
My proposal would create a landslide.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I believe you have been heard.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
JUST AN FYI
20 day chart of gasoline futures - high 1.8033 - low 0.6205
How could any serious business person who likes real assets and precious metals trade in this market safely? This pandemic could devolve into a deflationary depression in which case most all money takes a backseat to the need to survive.
The " need to survive " is certainly applicable; there is a lot of devastation taking place out there.
My daughter, who works in an OR in a hospital, told me today she saw a hospital co-worker, leaving for the day and in the parking garage, carrying a trash bag filled with toilet paper and paper towels; said she looked mighty ashamed and guilty. But that's what is now happening now and where we are at.... can't find TP in stores so you get it where you can. The need to survive.
What happens if/when it gets worse?
Not in any hurry to sell any physical metals at this point; have kept some for insurance policy and diversification and will continue to do so.
Who woulda thunk the cure for globalism would be a deadly virus?
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I'm old enough to remember the post-WWII interest in fostering international enmeshment as a way of forestalling additional ruinous wars among imperialistic nation states rivaling over zero-sum resources, markets and influences (the UN, free-trade deals, the IMF, the WTO, EU, etc., etc.). The impact was, indeed, revolutionary. On the plus side, it did create powerful mutual interests in favor of following the rules and cooperating. It also vastly improved economic efficiency, incentivized shared technologies and created value for heretofore impoverished pools of labor throughout the world.
However, we didn't adequately anticipate the disruptions (loss of manufacturing jobs in markets that had been protected), the cultural resistance to homogenizing values (Islamic fundamentalism, Putin, Brexit), and, of course, the vulnerability of international supply chains to events such as pandemics.
I don't see how it's either possible or desirable to go back to the days of national independence from "foreign supply chains," lest we recreate the competitions that in the past led to horrendous wars, indisputably made all the more horrendous now by technology.
We've only started to think about how to handle these experienced and yet-to-be-experienced disruptions, resistances and vulnerabilities. Andrew Yang's thinking about things such as universal guaranteed income constituted some green shoots. And I expect we'll emerge from this pandemic with other creative ideas, hopefully other than going back to a dysfunctional past.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
"National independence from foreign supply chains" helps ensure employment for the nation's workers. It also ensure a shorter supply chain, something US markets are about to learn is critical.
I don't agree with offering up a portion of my hard earned dollars to provide a universal guaranteed income. I have no problem with guaranteeing the opportunity for others to work hard for their own dollars. "Give a man a fish, feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, feed him for a lifetime."
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Well....maybe not. Needs to 3x bigger.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
He was right, again
He warned us in 2007 and some listened while others laughed.
He's been warning us since then to be prepared once again and they continued to laugh.
And sadly, some think fixing a virus problem will fix the economy.
His latest warning:
"This pin has pricked the biggest bubble that the Federal Reserve has ever inflated. And now the air is coming out. And at this point, it doesn’t even matter what happens to that pin... The damage is already done. The cat’s out of this bag. This bubble has popped. And there is a lot of air that’s going to come out of it.”
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Yes he was. Too bad CNBC stopped having Peter on in order to foster the bubbles. On rare occasion he's on FBN, but mostly just does his podcasts. I
That clock has a very big circumference.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
To the OP, it was the psychological trigger but not the cause. Economically, there is more reason to believe it's a lot less costly to let the pandemic run its course than shutting down a noticeable proportion of the economy. To take the current course of action was a psychological decision. I am not saying it should have been otherwise, just stating what should be plainly evident.
I have said it before that I thought that recent (as in at least the entire 20 years of this century) experience is the greatest asset, credit and debt mania in the history of civilization.
Is it over? I consider it prudent to treat it as such. I didn't own any "risk assets" during the entire run up from 2008 but see short term opportunity in the near future.
I also expect prices to be much lower later. My preference is to own decent dividend yielding stocks but most of it has been so absurdly overpriced on a historical basis with disproportionately abysmally weak balance sheets that I wasn't interested in trying to find the very low proportion of "reasonably" priced stocks.
Bubble, meet pin.
Pretty sure once the stock market runs its course, should start a slow climb back. I wonder about the metals... will they spring back for new highs?
Initial unemployment claims going to be really high, don't worry... WH seeks to delay reporting. There....fixed, lol.
@dpoole: You had me until this -
Andrew Yang's thinking about things such as universal guaranteed income constituted some green shoots.
The problem with income redistribution is the negative impact it has on the incentive to actually produce positive work product by the producers of the world. Define slavery. Or serfdom.
Who makes these decisions? Not the ones whose income is being redistributed - I can give innumerable examples just in Congress and past administrations for starters.
There is greed on both ends of the ladder. As much on the bottom rungs as on the top.
An able-bodied person who is content to feed off government handouts/bribes is not a lot different than a corporate board who siphon off a disproportionate income stream from a company that they had no hand in building.
There are those who are mentally or physically impaired who simply can't function in society - I'm not talking about them.
I knew it would happen.
The world is realizing how much of people's spending is actually discretionary, and how much of their time is usually made up of enjoyable waste. Professional sports and live music shows?
Heh.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I have an idea to fix the economy. A new national lottery. Proceeds used to assist individuals and corporations negatively affected by covid19. It will be known as MAGA Millions.
I wasn't necessarily endorsing Yang's specific proposal for $1000/mo distribution (how dare I on this Board, replete as we are with self-made success stories emblematic of the American Dream, myself included).
Rather, I was asserting that we must needs have new ways of thinking about how society and culture are to weather the inexorable influences of global interdependence and the new attendant challenges (such as this burgeoning pandemic). My thesis was that returning to the era of nationalist competition was neither desirable nor possible,
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
no problem once a virus wipes out globalization. nationalist competition is what made our economy great. We're finding out now (supply chain breakdowns) that economic independence is not a bad thing for consumers and fact is it is a better thing for workers.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
The bubble has burst. Now we wait to see if the fuse has been lit on the $25 trillion debt bomb or the $550 trillion derivatives bomb. Keep your seat belts fastened.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
@Baley said “ The world is realizing how much of people's spending is actually discretionary”
It will interesting to see if consumption patterns/preferences are forever changed, even if the virus itself is defeated in a relatively short time.
Goodbye Lime scooters.
The ER doesn’t have the capacity to handle that broken population.
An analysis of the store shelves is a market researcher's dream, we're trying new products and recipes already at home, it reminds me of traveling and shopping in foreign stores in more remote locations..
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I'm hearing all this news about desparately needing hundreds of thousands of ventilators at $25-50k each. Not trying to be a pessimist or cruel, but not sure why any are being bought now. I was reading a Chinese (Wuhan) clinical study where of 55 victims that received either invasive or noninvasive ventilator treatment, only 3% survived. The entire study was just 191 subjects. What am I missing here? Maybe if more ventilators were available they could be used earlier with more efficacy. But just on the statistics presented, it seems like a great expense for a poor outcome.
Royal Canadian Mint has shut down for two weeks
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
the instant noodles were gone at 2 places today.
one place had select brands of ice cream mostly gone.
walmart was rationing toilet paper and had some to give out.
another place was rationing hamburger and chicken and had some in stock.
Wonder if the U.S. Mint will follow suit.....
No toilet paper... None. This aftn at Giant supermarket in baltimore metro area.
Also, hearing even more about desparate need for ventilators without any data on outcomes in US. In China, wuhan study showed minimal results with ventilators. Why is US clamoring for them?
Went to a gunshop yesterday and used it as a barometer of society. People are prepping for a worst case scenario, bought the last two boxes of .357 mag ammo and the gun sales were fast and furious. The shop owner has sold more ammo in the last two weeks than any other 2 week period. Basically sold before he can put it out. Things are starting to get funny around here and we are 1 month into a 4 month cycle. God bless us all.
About six weeks ago I thought I was smart bidding Europe cuz of being quarantined after my China layovers late January. Didn't want to do that again. So here I am in the midst of a week long trip between Germany, France and England. Ugh! What a PITA! Attitudes are changing quickly here, going from annoyance to 'distancing' to almost ghost-town status. My concern is that Europe doesn't peak and flatten out in new cases over the next 5-7 weeks as has happened in China. I don't see the levels of quarantine here as in China and speculate Europe's ramp up may take longer, numbers higher(?) Same goes for the US.
I had an interesting night on my flights from Stansted (England) to Paris to Cologne. Europe's airspace is tight and very busy and the radios are noisy. It was Saturday evening, 8pm. I expected traffic to still be somewhat busy. I was not prepared for the virtual silence on the radios. London barely spoke to us. Once on Paris control they cleared us on a vector to intercept the ILS for runway 09L fifty miles out. That never happens. The only other aircraft we heard was another FedEx flight that left 5 minutes behind us. On first contact, Paris Tower said we were cleared to land, you're #1. Usually clearance isn't giving until much later. There was a low cloud deck over Paris, as we broke through the whole airport was in view, there were no beacons from aircraft taxing, looked eerie. We experienced the same on our flight to Cologne.
European airlines have parked (all?) their aircraft. Lufthansa, in Frankfurt, filled up their ramps. Extra aircraft were parked on runway 07L. That's crazy.
Lots of empty shelves in the last two weeks here in the Sacramento region. Walmart, CVS, Walgreens, Costco, Safeway..zero TP. and sparse on the soups, cereals, meats, and frozen foods. I'm getting my garden started now
jdimmick;Gerard;wondercoin;claychaser;agentjim007;CCC2010;guitarwes;TAMU15;Zubie;mariner67;segoja;Smittys;kaz;CARDSANDCOINS;FadeToBlack;
jrt103;tizofthe;bronze6827;mkman;Scootersdad;AllCoinsRule;coindeuce;dmarks;piecesofme; and many more
Thanks for the report, renski. And Joe, it's starting to look like that, here in Missouri. This is starting to remind me of "Atlas Shrugged".
I knew it would happen.
Treasury Secretary reveals financial crisis "will go on for years."
While announcing $4Trillion in forgiveable business loans and cash payments for individuals/families, Mnuchin made the following slip: "We need to get the money into the economy now. If we do that, we think we can stabilize the economy. This isn’t the financial crisis that’s going to go on for years ... We’re going to do whatever we need to do to win this war."
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
economic events kinda remind me of Nasem Taleb's "says it all" turkey chart:
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Kind of like the world got an enema (Flushed out).
Well... the precious metals are certainly on a roller coaster now.. gold up over 7% and silver over 6%. A temporary aberration or a new trend?
And now drifting lower.... looks like it may have been a rapid boil and now returning to more reasonable levels.
Very well said.
Click on this link to see my ebay listings.
Virus cannot survive UV radiation. Yes, that is a mil. spec flipper I use sometime.
100% Positive BST transactions
I have experienced some inconvenience but no turmoil. Pre March 10th my assets were 1% stock, 29% cash, 40% PM's and 30% real estate. Thanks to the bounce back in metals today my net worth is down 3% since early March.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163