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Corona Virus the Black Swan? Market turmoil seems to be ramping up...
tincup
Posts: 4,765 ✭✭✭✭✭
I've kind of ignored most of the Corona Virus as just another scare like we seem to have every year or two... You know, we always have to have a crisis of some sort. Overhyped or not, it does seem to be having a real effect now as seen in the financial markets, and gold and silver.
So... just a matter of time before the markets crash and we hit that recession? Been hearing a lot of snippets of how industries are already being slowed here is U.S. because they cannot get parts from overseas, so production is being affected. Coin markets going to take a hit soon? How about our friends gold and silver?
----- kj
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If global supply chains are adversely affected and critical components are single-sourced, it logically follows that many companies will have declining financial results and it's possible that layoffs may ensue. None of that would be good.
We had a brief discussion about incubation time, but the conversation was pooh-pooh'd at the time. I do think that the cat's out of the bag with this nasty disease.
Silver does have antibacterial properties, but I don't know if it is anti-viral as well. That would be a good thing.
I knew it would happen.
Gold and silver as bullion are fine. The Fed diverted from its mandates (stable prices, full employment) years ago to also focus on keeping interest rates artificially low (enable massive sovereign debt spending) and stock prices on an upward trajectory forever (to make people think they have wealth). Coronavirus is only having such an effect on markets because they are already sitting on weak foundations. If the markets are down significantly again tomorrow, the Fed will come in with a 50 basis point cut to try to save the day.
I agree bullion will be fine but the Fed doesn't need to cut rates. The market is doing that for them. A 50 basis point cut is meaningless to what would be ailing the market which in this case would be a virus ailing the market. Keep an eye of the economic activity in China. That will give us a hint on how a society will function in this environment. They would represent the best case since the government can force people back.
We are dealing with many unknowns concerning this contagion; I don't believe anyone has the correct answer. Markets don't like uncertainty. We certainly have that, and it's a sure bet ambiguity will rein for the next month, or, even longer.
I've always believed; hope for the best, prepare for the worse. I don't think having extra food for your family, water, medication, and first aid supplies plus whatever you feel you need to keep your family safe is a bad call, or, even nutty. I think with China's response, putting something like 150 million souls under quarantine is beyond normal, unprecedented, and calls for prudent consideration on what other governments will do. Look at Northern Italy, South Korea, and Iran per example. It very well could happen here...we are not immune.
I shutter to think about nursing homes, short with staff as they are in our area, and how they will be impacted if this turns worse case...we all may be engaged in roles we never would have imagined if this gets bad.
Good time to reflect upon what's important if anything.
Here's a good link to follow contagion:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
sounds like an installment in some bullion series .
The virus of house corona , austrian would be my guess
And today, the markets are roaring back....not sure how long it will last, but looks good right now. Cheers, RickO
And isn't this usually tax season sell off time for the market.....
KO has stated they are already having supply chain issues for the sweetener (splenda) in diet/zero sodas due to this.
not long... just until when wall st goes to lunch. The markets are 30% overpriced based on current earnings. Coronavirus is only exposing the completely irrational risk taking that is going on. FOMO? Look at BTC as well. No safe harbor there. Actually, PMs (with the exception of Pt) are all holding up well.
What moves markets? Fear > @DrBuster said:
sales for tax reasons occur just prior to the end of the tax year.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Maybe he means, it's time of year to sell some stock market winners to help pay last year's capital gain tax bill 😉
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
And reinvest in the new lows...now why would anyone do that...
nothing QEcorona can't fix.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
It's always some damned thing.
Stay on the balls of yer feet
wit yer dukes up boyz
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Perhaps the casino is bankrupt? Tax on!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Jim Willie on the virus and gold
"Wuhan has 48 plants which supply 80% of the US pharmaceutical components. Present inventory is about three weeks and starting to run down."
"What is certain is that when China recovers (a certainty), the United States and China will decouple and both go their separate ways. The reality will be far different from perhaps what the banker cabal entities wish or plan. What will come is the de-globalization toward a slow deliberate L-shaped recovery."
If he is correct, this could re-ignite universal production in the US.
Also, Hong Kong's response to worsening economic conditions:
Hong Kong Embraces Helicopter Money - Govt Gives Every Adult Citizen HK$10,000
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
$500M in pandemic bonds were issued a couple years ago by the World Bank. Investors potentially lose their entire investment if pandemic is officially declared.
Let's see. If money is zero interest and 12.5% of the corporations still aren't making money, but the free stuff army still wants free stuff...…..how are those companies going to make payroll unless they get even more free money?
Oh, I know...…….warm up the keyboards. Then glue down the Ctrl Prt keys at the Fed so that the Fed can keep buying assets that belong to someone else. Pretty damned diabolical.
I knew it would happen.
the stimulus the economy needs is employee immune system.
adding QE won't help a closed factory.
adding QE won't help a closed factory.
I was being facetious about that. IMHO, the fact of QE is only advantageous to the central planners and the central bankers.
I knew it would happen.
Precious metal. Take a serious look at it. Yes, it just sits there; but silver has antibacterial properties.
someone on another board had a stock symbol for a company working on a corona vaccine now I cant find it. That sort of thing might be a play
there are quite a number of companies claiming to be working on either a vaccine or a treatment.
I don't want to name them as I would feel bad if they or it went down hard.
Instead of pharma, i was thinking of CSV (not to be confused with CVS)
Sanofi (french based) is one of the big pharma companies trying to use their old SARS vaccine to help "quickly" create a corona-virus vaccine as the two viruses are very similar. The time-frame it will still take to get full FDA approval after it is created is YEARS away, so I don't think investing in that company is going to do anything for you in the near term.
Stick with a fund like "SH" to just short the SP500...and that will be a good enough play.
"Stocks look pretty cheap to me" someone in a high-ranking position just said.
After owning WEBS for just one week, I decided it was time to sell, but not based on the above quote.
Actually picked up some shares today at a 10 yr low. Did not play the last big correction and not going to miss this one.
looking for a quarter point rate cut next meeting (if not sooner) to be followed by another.
Look for other central banks to follow the Fed's lead.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Where’s all the day traders banter? Here’s one’s view that I’ve followed for quite some time.
Lysol stock.
i made a killing in the market today ......... shot my broker
here all week folks
https://www.wbko.com/content/news/Texas-police-say-local-meth-is-contaminated-with-coronavirus-offer-to-test-it-568261001.html
The common cold is a Coronavirus . They were identified in the 1960’s. Seems the media likes to fear monger for political gain, so I don’t trust when they generically report Coronavirus as if it’s running rampant after all it’s running rampant every cold and flu season and thousands die. It’s the deadly rare types you have to worry about.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus
WHO has an agenda Imo. They criticize Trump while not providing their recommendations. Here’s some tips, funny I believe I’ve heard this before, we’ve all had the infection sometime in our lives.
https://webmd.com/lung/coronavirus#1
It's a totally different strain with a higher death rate. Believe me, I work in healthcare with many rationale (and unrationale!) physicians and nurses and there is real concern here.
go long on gold,
short APT.
Yeah, the political slant is certainly one of the theories out there, and may be providing some influence in how things are being approached and handled.
However, keeping politics out of the discussion... we have to deal with the repercussions regardless of whether the situation is being hyped up, or not. Regardless of cause... the stock market has started tanking... supply chains are being interrupted, and Costco is starting to see some 'panic' type buying here in the U.S.
Looks to me like market correction time is here, and will continue down for some time. For how long... beats me. But surely will be affecting the coin market also. And.... when the virus ramps up more here in the US... I suspect the coin show attendances will be taking a good hit. ..
How many of you are going to travel to a coin show location if there are quarantines in effect at the location and cases are multiplying?
I think the coin show would be cancelled. considering that it can be spread by people without symptoms, I'd probably skip it. but that's just because I've had a recent bad sickness and that's still fresh in my mind.
Just give it all a few more days in the choices will likely be made for you.
why go to the show, the metals are way down but dealers won't price anything lower
you know how they do.
Upmoves are reflected instantaneously downmoves and you get the "temporarily out of stock"
Giving away all my masks. According to Surgeon General they are not effective against the corona unless they are being worn by a health professional:
"STOP BUYING MASKS! They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!"
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
According to Surgeon General they are not effective against the corona unless they are being worn by a health professional:
"STOP BUYING MASKS! They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!"
Doesn't make sense. No matter, the stock market up almost 1,300 points on what news? Any news to back that up? I must've missed it.
Metals still in a daze from Friday's smackdown. Any news about the smackdown? All I heard was that it was because of stock market margin calls. If that were the case, then the stock market should've had a pretty awful day today.
But, it didn't. Weird stuff.
It seems pretty obvious to me that it's still all about the debt markets and the need to protect them.
I knew it would happen.
I believe that statement , people are idiots. They would fiddle with the mask with their infected fingers and give themselves the virus , then leave the virus soaked mask laying about for someone else to touch
The average person is not up to operating such a complex piece of equipment .
Seems Orwellian to me.
I knew it would happen.
It's a paper filter with rubber bands. lol
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Isn’t there someone from fire or an EMT on here? My question is Wouldn’t you shut down heat and air on an air born pathogen? I was Hazmat and I’d be using a Scott’s air pack going into a lab that’s environmentally comprised depending if it were a gas like H2S or co2.
Chemicals: a full bio suit, rubber boots, gloves, with a full respirator that fit (no facial hair) Gloves and boots duck taped to your suit. Decomm a hose or full shower before removal. When we held classes we’d invite fire it’s quite costly. Train and recertification regularly. I hated suiting up when it was 100 outside., poor FD.
We trained every month on rescue or medic skills up to transport since we worked in the offshore on our projects. We’d let trained fire but no EMTs back in the 90s as medical doesn’t have that type of training or equipment you need. You have to know how to read what your up against.
Man down in a lab you’d radio and we’d call fire and emts. Everyone brought there carts and suited up for a rescue. Never assume a medical issue in a lab or you may die or have to be rescued as well.
We were always lucky but a dozen of us had REACT/MRT training. Viruses would have to be a self contained environment it would seem. Emergency would be a parking lot MASH style it’d seem to me or even in ones house. Haven’t really thought about this in 20 years but I do have all my equipment still in the attic.
I’d take my scuba gear over a mask,googles, and gloves. If it’s that bad your dead even replacing your gear in a comprised environment IMO. ☠️
suit, rubber boots, gloves, with a full respirator that fit (no facial hair) Gloves and boots duck taped to your suit. Decomm a hose or full shower before removal.
Brings back memories of when I would venture into commercial nuke plant for work.
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To avoid catching a cold, I don't believe it would require a scuba suit or a hazmat suit. I'm beginning to think that there are a lot of agendas that have accompanied this outbreak.
I knew it would happen.
@jmski52 said:
cant catch a cold underwater , well unless the water is really cold I guess
cant catch a cold underwater , well unless the water is really cold I guess
No, they did a study in Chicago of people who walked around in cold weather without coats in the winter during lunch breaks and concluded that simply being cold won't cause a cold. Hey, it was in the WSJ so it must be true.
I knew it would happen.