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Corona Virus the Black Swan? Market turmoil seems to be ramping up...

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  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Short cruise ships people . This vile disease ridden death barges have been a public health nightmare forever they may not survive this

  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,106 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Cruise ship stocks are one that I certainly have no confidence in. I have never really cared to go on a cruse... doubly so now. I wonder how many vacation plans are being canceled.

    ----- kj
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Panic now and beat the rush

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • morgansforevermorgansforever Posts: 8,456 ✭✭✭✭✭

    1-15 day incubation period, meaning one could have the virus and not know it till 2 weeks in. During that time, everyone you came in contact with also contrats it, wash, rinse, repeat.

    World coins FSHO Hundreds of successful BST transactions U.S. coins FSHO
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    less than 100,000 total cases worldwide to date and look at the drastic effect on Wall St.

    Just how fragile is Wall St.?

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,791 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Just how fragile is Wall St.?

    We plebeians don't get to know.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,250 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Follow the money. LOL. It's running hitherto.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    TVIX (anti-Wall St.) up 345% in three weeks.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Uh, congratulations?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 5, 2020 4:53PM

    @Baley said:
    Uh, congratulations?

    Uh, Thread topic?
    Market turmoil ring a bell?

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    new infections in china are way down.

    yet the market is down and gold is up.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,073 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:
    new infections in china are way down.

    How do you know this to be true? Do you really believe the "news" put out by the Chinese government?

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @PerryHall said:

    @MsMorrisine said:
    new infections in china are way down.

    How do you know this to be true? Do you really believe the "news" put out by the Chinese government?

    You figure they are less believable than what we have here? :D

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    news from Bloomberg which is from china

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • RobMRobM Posts: 549 ✭✭✭

    I was 5 days early in predicting the fed would do emergency cut by 50 basis points. Don't be surprised if they cut 75 more basis points before their March meeting. Coronovirus has simply pricked the bubble. It could disappear tomorrow and there will not be a 'recovery'. The S&P dropping to ~ 1800 and plateauing there for a few years to reach a reasonable historic earnings multiple would represent a true recovery, but the wh, fed, and wall st will do anything they can to prevent a rationale result. Meantime, gold is going to all time highs,

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,791 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The S&P dropping to ~ 1800 and plateauing there for a few years to reach a reasonable historic earnings multiple would represent a true recovery, but the wh, fed, and wall st will do anything they can to prevent a rationale result.

    Yup.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    virus death rate slowly climbing, now at 3.495%. (regular flu death rate is .2%)
    probably higher if we had the true numbers out of China.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,106 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Looks like our black swan has arrived......

    ----- kj
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    virus death rate slowly climbing, now at 3.495%. (regular flu death rate is .2%)
    probably higher if we had the true numbers out of China.

    i still dont think its that high because the number tested is low and they are only testing people that they think might be positive.

    Supposedly south korea is doing a pretty good job . Things might be spiralling in italy , the EU has some things to answer for.

    Cruise ships are all death traps to begin with , and really if you think about it , so are most nursing homes. Both are charging a lot and spending the bare minimum and eventually that was going to come back and bite them.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    3.495 % death rate is based on latest reported cases and deaths. Death rate is slowly climbing.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    i was at the dollar tree yesterday they had a sign saying sold out of hand sanitizer!! The woman at the register said they are also out of the ingredients you would buy if you wanted to brew your own!

    The people of the US will stave off the virus with a counterattack of extreme paranoia! Media driven for the most part

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bronco2078 said:
    i was at the dollar tree yesterday they had a sign saying sold out of hand sanitizer!! The woman at the register said they are also out of the ingredients you would buy if you wanted to brew your own!

    The people of the US will stave off the virus with a counterattack of extreme paranoia! Media driven for the most part

    Buy Vodka.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I quit drinking in 1988! You think I should start? Vodka kills it internally I bet

  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Even wine will kill all known human pathogens. But vodka is not a bad idea.

    Higashiyama
  • ShadyDaveShadyDave Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    By the way, I don't consider this a 'black swan'.

    Any good risk manager should have put the possibility of a pandemic on the list of risks to be considered and planned for. It

    Higashiyama
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 9, 2020 2:04PM

    @Higashiyama said:
    By the way, I don't consider this a 'black swan'.

    Any good risk manager should have put the possibility of a pandemic on the list of risks to be considered and planned for. It

    fits the definition

    A good risk manager can plan on only so many unexpected events. Once the event, such as this virus, becomes known then planning should be at the top of any business's list. Many years ago while on active duty we had a file cabinet full of contingency (operation) plans. I don't recall one that foresaw a pandemic.

    I do agree that a risk manager should have a contingency for:
    -an an interruption to his supply chain.
    -an interruption to his delivery system.
    -an interruption to his customer base.
    -an interruption in his work force.

    there are few industries that should have already had specific plans for a pandemic. Among them might be hospitals/healthcare and any business that services large crowds. FWIW, just read that a priest contracted the bug after shaking over 500 hands at mass. Coulda . . . shoulda. . .

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • RobMRobM Posts: 549 ✭✭✭

    WH floats fiscal stimulus plans. Then admits economic response "not there right now". Jawboning works until it doesn't. Near 0% interest rates and 100%+ debt/gdp isn't really the strong economic foundation from which to build confidence. Stocks down for the day after nearly 1k rise?

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 10, 2020 3:33PM

    Corona lit the fuse, but the explosives were already in place

    "That while the coronavirus may in fact be the catalyzer for the oncoming financial blowout, it is the height of stupidity to believe that it is the cause, as the seeds of the crisis goes deeper and originated much earlier than most people are prepared to admit."

    The virus is a time machine, Italy and S. Korea are showing us our future

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭

    Our “normal” lives are starting to change and will be different for a while.

    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    changed.

    everyone is nailbiting job and school closures if the school closures haven't happened yet.

    one walmart recently visited was out of toilet paper.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,373 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Schools in Atlanta, Fulton county, have been closed yesterday/today since an employee was confirmed. Our entire downtown complexes, 2 complexes ~20 buildings and ~4-5k employees, were mandatory telework yesterday with only the response team able to enter the buildings.

  • RobMRobM Posts: 549 ✭✭✭

    WHO let the dogs out? WHO just declared coronavirus a pandemic. Pandemic bondholders are screwed. Pandemonium to break out.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 11, 2020 10:26AM

    Time to plan now. Plan on stores being closed for a while at some point as fear of contagion or interruption in supply chain increases.

    I'm not concerned about water supply as much as I am food and toilet paper supply. My Costco & Sam's out of TP. Went to grocery store, wife says not the right brand. I asked her if she would prefer it over newspaper; she filled the cart.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,106 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm becoming convinced we are seeing a world wide metamorphosis in process... life as we have known it may be changing long term from what we have accepted and known.

    The coronovirus, the stock market devastation (which I believe will be a long time to recover), and the political upheaval both here in the US and elsewhere... have all converged into a storm.

    I don't have much confidence in the stock market recovering (unless the helicopters continuously fly in gazillions of dollars) for a long time... 80% of businesses expect the crisis to affect them. They have become so dependent upon parts and supplies from china, and the squeeze is in progress. If you don't get parts and supplies, your business will be in trouble.

    And then you have the service sectors... sports games, restaurants, travel industry, coin shows, and so on. How many businesses are going to survive a drawn out downslide? This may well be more than a 'downturn' or 'recession'.

    Course I can be wrong... and actually hope so. Maybe in another month with warmer weather the coronovirus will retreat... but who knows??

    ----- kj
  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,106 ✭✭✭✭✭

    And where is Cohodk??? He's usually pretty quick to jump on the forums to educate us on why the stock market is better than investing in gold and silver....

    ----- kj
  • RobMRobM Posts: 549 ✭✭✭

    Imagine if the S&P500 returns to its median historical PE ratio. Based on healthy 2019 earnings (not on probable 2020 recession decrease in earnings), it only has 30% further to fall. Not saying that will happen, but it supports the notion that there was a huge bubble; it just took something like coronavirus to wake people up.

  • thisistheshowthisistheshow Posts: 9,386 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The majority of people who have retirement accounts in 401Ks, etc are passive investors. Buy and hold. Nothing else. Pensions and high interest savings accounts have intentionally been eliminated, so that the percentage of Americans who actually have a retirement account depend on the market going up. As we see, the market is being reset roughly every ten years by hook or by crook. Those with generational wealth are okay. I am a strong believer that the advent of very easy home investing/trading is a great thing - provided people educate themselves.

  • ShadyDaveShadyDave Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Hopefully he is OK, last time he was on this forum was 2/17/20.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 11, 2020 1:05PM

    @thisistheshow said:
    The majority of people who have retirement accounts in 401Ks, etc are passive investors. Buy and hold. Nothing else. Pensions and high interest savings accounts have intentionally been eliminated, so that the percentage of Americans who actually have a retirement account depend on the market going up. As we see, the market is being reset roughly every ten years by hook or by crook. Those with generational wealth are okay. I am a strong believer that the advent of very easy home investing/trading is a great thing - provided people educate themselves.

    This is why I have always advocated on the forum that, if possible, one should take control of their retirement account by switching it to an on-line broker and learning to make the trades themselves. This is not possible for all as some accounts are employer managed, but even then many employers offer a few products to choose from and the ability to bounce between them.

    I know from experience that federal employees and active military have a unique type 401 (called a Thrift Savings Plan) and while they cannot make early withdrawals they can choose from a handful of investment options including a cash balance. The first thing I did when I retired was convert (not rollover) my TSP to an online brokerage Roth IRA that I trade.

    Non-retires can trade an IRA account all day long as long; they just can't make withdrawals without penalty until eligible to do so.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,886 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Trade away, has corona made you rich yet? Crazy sad world.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @RobM said:
    WHO let the dogs out? WHO just declared coronavirus a pandemic. Pandemic bondholders are screwed. Pandemonium to break out.

    a pandemic breakout! buy!

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    futures limit down in 1 hour tonight!

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MilesWaitsMilesWaits Posts: 5,338 ✭✭✭✭✭

    WOW!

    Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Stock futures plunge after Trump announces suspension of U.S.-Europe travel
    Dow futures plunge about 1,000 points following speech

    PM's are only slightly down

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-flat-as-traders-await-trumps-address-on-coronavirus-measures-2020-03-11

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OPA said:
    Stock futures plunge after Trump announces suspension of U.S.-Europe travel

    Gonna be a lot of business travelers and vacationers stuck in europe.

    Ebay sellers might want to think twice about selling outside of US.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • 3stars3stars Posts: 2,285 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @OPA said:
    Stock futures plunge after Trump announces suspension of U.S.-Europe travel

    Gonna be a lot of business travelers and vacationers stuck in europe.

    Ebay sellers might want to think twice about selling outside of US.

    1 doesn’t affect US citizens, just foreign nationals.
    2 unless the seller is hand delivering the item, why would there be a problem?

    Previous transactions: Wondercoin, goldman86, dmarks, Type2
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @OPA said:
    Stock futures plunge after Trump announces suspension of U.S.-Europe travel

    Gonna be a lot of business travelers and vacationers stuck in europe.

    Ebay sellers might want to think twice about selling outside of US.

    I was about to list a bunch of stuff and paused. Will people staying home from things increase online sales or has everyone spent all their money on toilet paper and sacks of flour?

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,791 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Will people staying home from things increase online sales or has everyone spent all their money on toilet paper and sacks of flour?

    Yeah, I think it depends on what items are being bought. I've been buying more things online when I sense that going out to search for them in stores will waste more time than it's worth.

    If coins & bullion are what people are interested in buying, I agree that more staying at home time will probably lead to more sales activity. The trend is already established that B&M shops have dwindled because of online activity, so it's almost axiomatic that an online presence is required for survival.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    the talking head on cnc's fast money is right.

    futures earnings are unknown and going down. how do you put a valuation on that?

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
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