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Decline in prices for collector coins....?
RogerB
Posts: 8,852 ✭✭✭✭✭
Maybe it's part of the death cycle.
Young collectors of the late 50s, 60s and 70s are now old. They are dying. Heirs sell that they find. Volume on the market goes up; prices go down.
Just a thought.
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The coin market is double nuclear! It has no top!
Need to collect the CC plastic.
Wait, that is already happening.
It's a shame there aren't two new collectors for every collection coming onto the market.
But there's no death spiral here because coin collecting is still the greatest hobby in the world and coins will be removed from the market by buyers. There are a lot of new collectors and someone always will come forward when something goes cheap.
The hobby is actually becoming more vibrant with ever new infusions of new blood but it will take time until their collections are as extensive as their parent's and grandparent's collections.
There's no need to panic. Some of we old timers will even be able to ride it out. Rare coins won't suddenly become common even if they all come onto the market. Some coins will "seem" a lot more common for a while.
I was at a coin show today in San Diego.
There were many, many kids running around getting free coins including my 12-year-old.
The hobby will be around forever.
I'll relate this to camera since that's my world but I think the concept can kinda apply. We watched as film cameras became worth less and less and less to the point that we wouldn't even buy many because we had to many sitting on shelves once digital really took over solidly.
Now though in the past 2-3 years we've watched it flip. Not only is there more demand as the same people that are getting interested in vinyl records and typewriters want to try out this film stuff they never saw before because when they were born their parents were already using digital cameras, but at this point we are seeing less and less of the cameras brought in. As people die off or move to retirement communities and other places, they or their kids are bringing in all the cameras that they find in closets to sell. We've seen a definite drop in the quantity as that area dries up. For us there is the added problem that more and more of the cameras are coming back as unrepairable because the cameras are getting older and older and parts are also drying up for them. All of this has resulted in the prices of the most popular cameras going up due to demand, and people wanting more money when they sell them.
I'm not sure coins relates as well to repairs since you don't repair a coin but certainly there is a certain portion of coins that people are taking to gold and silver places to get rid of for the metal value because they have no idea of the collectibility side of things.
What we need is a Kardashian to get interested in coins. One of them commented about the film camera she used in an interview last year and the camera value tripled from $500 to $1500 in a weekend. I'm still mad at her because naturally she gave the interview AFTER I had sold mine.
Collector of randomness. Photographer at PCGS. Lover of Harry Potter.
There are some very rich foreign and domestic billionaires that have a tendency to bid up the top quality items, whatever they are; art, cars, baseball, magic, Pokémon cards LOL (gotta collect 'em all), coins, medals, antiques, real estate, stocks, etc. That demand is increasing.
However, common pops in less than upper grades are in the downturn. And frankly, many collectors selling their collections at estate sale type levels did not have the better coins in the first place. So lots more commons showing up. So yes, volume up, price down.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Coin guide prices and the coin market do not know when 'collector coins " are coming onto to the market.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I see two different market trends.
1) Prices for widgets continue to sink badly, but they probably ran up too much anyway.
2) Original semi-key and key dates are holding up well, at least in the series I'm interested in. Lots of demand.
Have fun, and remember it's just a damn fun hobby.
Dave
Sirus, I never sold my paperweights.
(3) 4x5 view cameras, 4 large format lenses, Mamiya RB67 w 3 lenses, (2) Canon F1 with 10 fixed length lenses, Besler Color Enlarger, Tons of film accessories ...........
Let's see -- what can I get my my Hasselbald 500C with 80mm Planar and 150mm f4 Sonar lenses, plus some 120 ans 220 backs? Or maybe that Toyo 4x5 with 90mm and 210mm Schneider lenses, plate holders, etc. ?
RB67, and 645 (for weddings). Fujitsu color paper processor, Jobo auto film processor, etc., etc.
Indian head cents and Mercury dimes are going up!
There will always be a home for coins of any scarcity, the question is at what price.
Took note about 5 years ago when I received my lots from the Newman sale. A $1500 proof half dime had an acquisition cost of about $10 (noted on the small kraft envelope) coins obviously had a huge ride upward and we are now seeing the other side.
@RogerB @ErrorsOnCoins HA I'm not the only one then with my M4 black paint, Rolleiflex 2.8F, Zone VI 4x5, Wista 8x10 and assorted accoutrement of extra lenses and widgets. This is why I can't actually afford to do any more than just talk about coins :P
Collector of randomness. Photographer at PCGS. Lover of Harry Potter.
Young collectors get old and eventually, when they die, their collections are sold. When has it ever been different?
The example of "traditional" cameras reminds me of record players and vinyl records.
Lots of my nieces and nephews "got into" traditional record players and vinyl in the last fifteen yeas. Spent some money. It was all a novelty to them, most of them being born after 1985.
Now they are having babies themselves, and they are discovering one of the great mysteries of parenthood (I.e., when you become a parent, you no longer have extra money).
So the record player gets set aside for the many fewer moments when they can relax. Not acquiring much vinyl anymore.
You can make up all kinds of analogies, but the last seven or eight years have been very tough on the bulk of middle class collectors coins.
The "collector coins" being described here are losing market share to NCLT, ASE and otherwise. At least, that's what the TPG data shows.
Well I used some of my hard earned retirement savings and paid off my daughter's $100k+ student loan for grad school in a medical field, and kept my vinyl records from the 70's+/- and later, and got a better turntable, speakers, and amps.
And somehow I managed to buy a few nice coins/medals in the process. I don't really care if they go up or down all that much, as I just like most of them.
Life is good. (Note I am schizophrenic, or maybe bi-polar, and imagining my future life also sucks, especially when they talk about student loan forgiveness).
And now I think my coins are worthless... oh explicative, life is hard, and if it wasn't, it wouldn't be very memorable.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
I believe the disdain millennials have for history, appreciation of art, and analysis of what isn't popular right now will actually give them a very short time of being able to affect much of anything.
I think they'll be good prey.
This does NOT apply to those who participate on this board or value books and experience.
Politicians, banks, and social media already have had them in their targets or they are already injured from the first shot with money making ads, school, car, and maybe house or even rent loans, but it is like shooting fish in a barrel.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Not doom and gloom: the demographics in coin collecting is a lot like that of Oldsmobile buyers prior to the demise of that GM division. An inverse pyramid, young at the bottom and old at the top.
I really don't understand comments like "Morgans, Mercury dimes and Indians are on the way up". Yes, maybe those outrageous exceptions like the 1938 S that just sold. How about a very nice 1944 in MS65? DOn't think that one is on the way up. Or what about a Barber dime like the 1907 D in EF?? Or an MS60 1960 SD Lincoln? Yikes...
So the rare or perceived rare might go up, and even to high levels but pedestrian coins? Not so much.
Anyway, it is a dynamic market and I expect the majority of coins will be in for a slide with the "glamor" coins being an exception.
Well, just Love coins, period.
I agree @topstuf comment. My two kids are millennials. My son is what is called a "Metrosexual" and that is becoming very popular.
Definition of metrosexual. : a usually urban heterosexual male given to enhancing his personal appearance by fastidious grooming, beauty treatments, and fashionable clothes A metrosexual … is happy getting a pedicure and a manicure. He's hip, urban, sophisticated and, above all, stylish.
My son is not interested in getting married or having children. He owns his own business and does very well but what interests him is planning his next trip to some foreign country with his friends. He is not interested what happened 50, 100 or 500 years ago and how history affects our daily living today.
DiggerJim
BST transactions - mach1ne - Ronyahski - pitboss (x2) - Bigbuck1975 (x2) - jimineez1 - nk1nk - bidask - WaterSport - logger7 - SurfinxHI (x2) - Smittys - Bennybravo - Proofcollector
I have a Rolleiflex tlr with a Xenotar 3.5 lens that I used before I got a Hasselblad. Great camera. Spell checker made it tough to post that.
I know what you mean about spell check I'm still trying to figure out what ducking is
!
I went opposite. Sold my Hasselblad, then bought a Rolleiflex later.
Collector of randomness. Photographer at PCGS. Lover of Harry Potter.
I have 3 adult millennial kids. All are doing well and are good productive citizens. I am grateful. Unfortunately, they have no interest in this hobby.
Yes, I have two with no interest.
I even offered one of them to a 10% profit to sell some for me as a commission in his spare phone video gaming time, but no...………. The other had a kid and is too busy now. LOL.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
PM sent.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
The coin market fluctuates constantly. Every series/denomination has it's rise and fall. A lot of which is driven by those with wealth purchasing them as both status symbol and investment. Ten years ago it was the rare coin craze, driven by investors as a hedge against their stock portfolios. That market has leveled off somewhat, some even dropping slightly. Currently we are in the modern coin series for registry bragging rights as recent auction results attest to. Overall, the coin market is stronger than ever and I do not see that changing anytime soon.
Sold all my Nikon cameras this year, along with my dad's stuff. The curator of my museum decided there were too many exhibits and too many items in storage. I have one Vivitar telephoto left to adios, then I am done.
The OP could just have easily have written the title with one different word, and not changed anything else:
Beanie Babies
Stamps
Sterling Silver
Formal China
Cast Iron toys
Brass Cash Registers
Hummels
Wedgewood
Waterford
Coca Cola Memorabilia
Roseville Pottery
Comic Books
Commemorative Plates
Baseball Cards
Lunch Boxes
etc.
Oh, and everything my mom has hoarded since it MUST be collectible since she bought it.
My son was pushing Lincoln cents into a blue Whitman coin folder at a coin show today. He used a lupe a few times.
He changed out coins he had already found if he found a better example.
It was fun to watch and help.
Thank you, San Diego Coinarama for your dedication to YN's
Overall, the market is absolutely not “stronger than ever”, or for that matter, anywhere close to it. I don’t think there is any data that will back up your statement.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
For those complaining that a younger generation doesn't appreciate history, are naive to the world, etc., the previous generation said the same thing about your generation.
Some members of the younger generation are very familiar with history but see it through a different lens.
Maybe it's part of the death cycle.
I think it is much, much simpler than that. in the Stock Market what is happening would be called a "correction" and I see prices being down as just that. the overall coin market was in a nice rising period from around late 1999 until somewhere around early 2013. I don't have the perspective of some other long-timers but that seems like an awful long time for things to be moving up. some coins during that period sold three or more times and kept getting more expensive with each sale. try to remember what it was like around 2006, 2008, 2010. I sold some of my best stuff during early 2010 when I was out of work for a year and did really well.
personally, I think lower prices today are more realistic than they were around 2010 and better reflect the actual value of a lot of coins.
My 2 cents:
There is a generational change going on, that will eventually increase the rate of decline of collecting coins: Why?
As mustangbob alluded to, many other collectibles have lost favor, coins are approaching this level, but not there yet, and the historical significance of them could help them hang on....
But...I am an early genX. Here are some traits of the generation that should be bolstering or supporting the hobby going forward.
-Many genX will not have a pension or health care benefits...so while earlier generations were able to enjoy hobbies, genX and later generations need to worry about working and paying for health insurance...oh yeah, many of us are now just starting to pay for children’s college...you know how that price has escalated....so the last thing that many of us that should be entering the hobby are thinking about, is spending money on a hobby(coins)...And for those of that can think about this, see the above item,
So all that said, out of a large group of genX work colleagues, and genX friends, I do not know a single other person interested in the coin hobby or anyone’s children that are interested in it...they are all worried bout paying for college, paying for healthcare, and hoping to retire someday...they are all also trying to simplify their lives.
So as I mentioned in other posts, I believe that coins >5k or 10k will likely do well, as the people who by these are not impacted by the above items or financial constraints. But coins in the 2k and lower range, I expect will continue to drop...I enjoyed the hobby for the last 8 years, but the realities above are moving me from coins to exonumia and bullion( to scratch the collecting itch). Sad to say, but I think you will see some interest in very cheap raw coins and very expensive coins, but the rest of the stuff will continue to lose value and become stagnant
My thought is that the hobby will survive and thrive in the future, in ways that are far different than what the current older generation of collectors experienced.
As far as younger persons entering into adulthood, going to work, getting married, having kids, buying a house, paying for college, etc goes, I never thought that I would be able to afford these things. These things were much cheaper when my parents (both born in the 1920s) went through it. I ended up doing fine and after returning to the hobby as an adult in 1998 at the age of 42 I have collected, bought, sold and have had fun along the way
Newer collectors will do the same.
One can use one's talents, drive, ambition, skills and brain to find and build a life that provides the financial resources to be able to pay for all of the things discussed above and have money left over for hobby fun. Even as expenses and taxes continue to rise. As long as free market capitalism is around opportunities will abound for the individual. You just have to find what works for you.
I ponder if my experiences in the hobby are similar to others and only extrapolate from that:
All of the above have or are disappearing. Of course, coin prices will find the pricing equilibrium that accounts for the changing dynamics above and will continue to thrive IMO. Collecting stuff is just part of the human DNA.
One thing that I'm curious about is that there was a post indicating that someone's customers via Instagram were double digit percentages of women and minorities. I haven't seen many women or minorities reported at coin shows or with pedigrees so if these groups are increasing their purchases and not showing up in traditional areas, it could indicate a big change in collecting behavior.
The coin shows I attend in the SF Bay Area usually have a significant portion of bourse attendees who fall outside of the middle and older aged white guy collector demographic.
Whoops. Maybe the thread should h4ave been to discuss the decline of opportunities for the millennials to really amass discretionary income.
This country has seemingly sold out its future in the tolerating of outsourcing and "globalization."
If anything, those who have justified buying foreign should be apologizing for chalking it up to "making ends meet."
In my day Americans were pretty much assured of their national superiority and reliable income from steady jobs and easy entry into small businesses.
It's too bad that so many younger folks have bought the lie that "global" is always good.
That's good to know. Many other reports of shows tend to say the opposite. I'm curious when those of different demographics will start making themselves known via pedigrees.
Whoops? Where have you been? Even most of the products made in the US have significant foreign content - autos and everything else. Reality check - a country that tries to isolate themselves from globalization will simply cease to be relevant and their economy will tank. Civilization is a changing. Interconnectivity drove it. Same for coins, access via internet etc. means more competitiveness, and coin prices will go down for common stuff. For high end rare stuff, simply less people are interested. Prices will continue to go down until they balance out with the fewer active collectors. TPG's and CAC have not helped newbies, all they have done is complicate everything even more. Quite a turn off to folks entering collecting now.
OTH, the bullion collectors coins are doing great. New collectors love the MS70 grades on these flawlessly minted bullion coins and most of the value is in the metal.
Best, SH
Successful transactions with-Boosibri,lkeigwin,TomB,Broadstruck,coinsarefun,Type2,jom,ProfLiz, UltraHighRelief,Barndog,EXOJUNKIE,ldhair,fivecents,paesan,Crusty...
To be honest. Nowadays the YNs aren't going to be going to as many shows as previous generations. There really is no need to. Everything can be found online,don't get me wrong,I love a good show now and then,but there is no need for it so you won't be seeing as many newer younger fans of numismatics at shows. I've slowly switched over to mostly online transactions and most of my transactions come off of Instagram actually,why go to the show when you have the show at your fingertips?
Coin collecting is one of my hobbies....I was a collector long before the internet, before coin shows or shops....I continually read (here) about the demise of the hobby....well, frankly, I think most are talking about the business end... since one's hobby will only die if the collector dies or loses interest. I do not care how many new collectors there are, how the market is trending (unless I can get a coin I want for a great price (read that to mean cheap). I enjoy my coins, have fun looking for and at other coins - it is an area of great interest for me. I really do not care what others may do or the state of the market (unless it benefits my collecting). By the way, I do have a Canon AE-1 that is gathering dust on a bookshelf.
Cheers, RickO
Reality check - a country that tries to isolate themselves from globalization will simply cease to be relevant and their economy will tank. Civilization is a changing. Interconnectivity drove it.
please help our President to understand this simple fact.
The "foreign content" in US autos is why there aren't any bumper bolt installers for Buicks to buy products.
You think I don't know how the game works?
To be honest. Nowadays the YNs aren't going to be going to as many shows as previous generations. There really is no need to. Everything can be found online,don't get me wrong,I love a good show now and then,but there is no need for it so you won't be seeing as many newer younger fans of numismatics at shows. I've slowly switched over to mostly online transactions and most of my transactions come off of Instagram actually,why go to the show when you have the show at your fingertips??
this should be a caution read by anyone entering the Hobby --- if you think you can isolate yourself and learn how to grade while forming dealer/collector relationships at home you are probably mistaken. especially about learning how to grade and negotiating purchases and sales. coin shows and coin shops are your classroom for that.
dismiss me as an old timer if you want to, but I speak the truth.
I'm really tempted to start a nice set of Lincolns in Fine or so, a nice set of Franklins in EF or so, etc. If the market is trending down for common coins now, it will eventually equilibrate. So be it.
My rationale for entering Modern Bullion as a buyer in 1987 was because of the high premiums of classic gold compared to the new AGEs being issued. At times, the premiums for classic coins are ridiculous and slabbing only made it worse.
The market will take care of itself, regardless of the collector base - which will shrink until it decides to grow.
I knew it would happen.
Very well said. To that, I’d add the benefits of sight seen transactions, personal interactions and comraderie.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
personal interactions and comraderie.
our Hobby tends to be solitary but we are still social creatures. this is a good place to START a relationship but face-to-face interaction is still really necessary. it is what I miss most during the last 10 years, being able to travel to a show and see everyone I have met at this site. some day soon I'll be back in the saddle!!