A "cycle" is neither positive nor negative; neither happy nor grumpy; neither singing nor silent. It is a natural pattern of events and behaviors.
In the original post, the obvious is stated: as older collectors, who built the core of their hobby 40 to 60 years ago, age and die, the coins become available to younger collectors. If there are fewer younger collectors, there will be insufficient demand to maintain market values, and prices will decline.
Other factors, such as TPG companies or a glut of "perfect" NCLT, skew cycles, but do not negate them.
Young collectors of the late 50s, 60s and 70s are now old. They are dying. Heirs sell that they find. Volume on the market goes up; prices go down.
Just a thought.
Have you seen Grandma and Grandpa's coin collection? 95% (maybe more) of those older collectors have tons of wheat cents, maybe a bunch of war nickels, a few cleaned '81-S Morgans, if they're lucky they will have some Standing Liberty Quarters and a "rare" worn out Barber or two. These are what these lucky heirs are inheriting.
In my opinion, collectors are becoming more sophisticated. Information is more available. The stuff in Grandma and Grandpa's collection is avoided but higher end, better quality stuff is scooped up fast. If any nice, original older stuff comes along there are more than enough collectors to buy it up for the number of coins available. The quality stuff will always be in demand especially if they are better dates.
The estate I recently viewed (thousands of coins) is exactly as described above by the previous poster. The bulk of it is silver avg circ dollars, rolls of WLH, Franks, Wash, Mercs, roosx - all common dates. Oh there are a few better dates but they are AG worn slick or say VF cleaned. Not a single coin worth slabbing. One GSA common cc dollar but only MS60. If there was anything really nice it was sold by the deceased collector years ago.
I have made an offer to the heirs (which works for me) but on one hand will feel relieved if they decline. If get that will go to friend that has shop (flip) convert junk silver to slabbed Gold - preferably Double Eagles.
Any posts that talks generically about the "death" of coins or an unending cycle of decline ignores that the coin market is made up of many segments. My unscientific observation is many of these posts are by forum members who don't collect US coins for whatever reason. Of course, anyone who buys a coin today and tries to sell it in a year or two will probably lose money but the same can be said for almost any collectable or even stocks (that is why they move you out of stocks the closer you get to retirement). Certainly there are coins that will never be valuable (home shopping network will sell you plenty), other coins seem to be out of favor now but will go up at some point. Likewise some coins may be in favor now but not down the road. On the other hand, there are many coins out there that are truly rare that don't come up for sale that often but when they do almost always bring strong prices. I
@RogerB said:
I refer to "collections" not accumulations or throwbacks, which are what the two previous posts refer to.
You may use those terms but I’m guessing the people assembling them called them collections. It’s also what I grew up with in B&Ms and coin magazine ads.
Labeling them as something else makes it easier to say those coins and people don’t count but they may make up the majority of collectors.
@Zoins said:
What are the opposite of "collector coins" called? Are they "non-collector coins", “investment coins” or something else?
I'm wondering what to call coins where the prices are stable or going up.
I've heard tons of things and already seen different responses to your question. I often think of coins priced in the $5-$300 range as collector coins. Anything below that is kind of common, and not as collectible. Anything above $300 is the high end of the market where there is a smaller number of overall transactions. When I hear people refer to collector coins, I think of the coin middle class.
Comments
Same sing song we’ve heard since the 1970s. Mostly spread by “news” writers who wouldn’t know a coin from a hole in the ground.
Yep it's like watching another episode of grumpy old men. lol
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
90%
Junk
Dreck
Culls
Probably a few other things I’ve heard not as acceptable
A "cycle" is neither positive nor negative; neither happy nor grumpy; neither singing nor silent. It is a natural pattern of events and behaviors.
In the original post, the obvious is stated: as older collectors, who built the core of their hobby 40 to 60 years ago, age and die, the coins become available to younger collectors. If there are fewer younger collectors, there will be insufficient demand to maintain market values, and prices will decline.
Other factors, such as TPG companies or a glut of "perfect" NCLT, skew cycles, but do not negate them.
Have you seen Grandma and Grandpa's coin collection? 95% (maybe more) of those older collectors have tons of wheat cents, maybe a bunch of war nickels, a few cleaned '81-S Morgans, if they're lucky they will have some Standing Liberty Quarters and a "rare" worn out Barber or two. These are what these lucky heirs are inheriting.
In my opinion, collectors are becoming more sophisticated. Information is more available. The stuff in Grandma and Grandpa's collection is avoided but higher end, better quality stuff is scooped up fast. If any nice, original older stuff comes along there are more than enough collectors to buy it up for the number of coins available. The quality stuff will always be in demand especially if they are better dates.
The estate I recently viewed (thousands of coins) is exactly as described above by the previous poster. The bulk of it is silver avg circ dollars, rolls of WLH, Franks, Wash, Mercs, roosx - all common dates. Oh there are a few better dates but they are AG worn slick or say VF cleaned. Not a single coin worth slabbing. One GSA common cc dollar but only MS60. If there was anything really nice it was sold by the deceased collector years ago.
I have made an offer to the heirs (which works for me) but on one hand will feel relieved if they decline. If get that will go to friend that has shop (flip) convert junk silver to slabbed Gold - preferably Double Eagles.
I refer to "collections" not accumulations or throwbacks, which are what the two previous posts refer to.
Any posts that talks generically about the "death" of coins or an unending cycle of decline ignores that the coin market is made up of many segments. My unscientific observation is many of these posts are by forum members who don't collect US coins for whatever reason. Of course, anyone who buys a coin today and tries to sell it in a year or two will probably lose money but the same can be said for almost any collectable or even stocks (that is why they move you out of stocks the closer you get to retirement). Certainly there are coins that will never be valuable (home shopping network will sell you plenty), other coins seem to be out of favor now but will go up at some point. Likewise some coins may be in favor now but not down the road. On the other hand, there are many coins out there that are truly rare that don't come up for sale that often but when they do almost always bring strong prices. I
You may use those terms but I’m guessing the people assembling them called them collections. It’s also what I grew up with in B&Ms and coin magazine ads.
Labeling them as something else makes it easier to say those coins and people don’t count but they may make up the majority of collectors.
I've heard tons of things and already seen different responses to your question. I often think of coins priced in the $5-$300 range as collector coins. Anything below that is kind of common, and not as collectible. Anything above $300 is the high end of the market where there is a smaller number of overall transactions. When I hear people refer to collector coins, I think of the coin middle class.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me