@keets said:
--- if you think you can isolate yourself and learn how to grade while forming dealer/collector relationships at home you >are probably mistaken.
I'll take my chances
This is about as close as I want to get to any dealer.
@keets said:
--- if you think you can isolate yourself and learn how to grade while forming dealer/collector relationships at home you >are probably mistaken.
I'll take my chances
This is about as close as I want to get to any dealer.
It’s unfortunate that you feel that way. There are terrible dealers, great ones and many who fall somewhere in between. The same can be said about collectors. And that applies to any other hobby.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Fewer collectibles for the rich means higher prices for them, too. The rest of us are sorting a junk pile, reassembling it and calling it a "collection". The other day, I used a term with a seller. I told him he had a box of "hodgepodge". A few days later he called back and said " This is "hodgepodge Bob", I found another box."
This fits right in line with the initial post. Supplies increase but interest (demand) doesn't.
This is about as close as I want to get to any dealer.
don't misunderstand me, you can form a perfectly fine collection in the way you have apparently chosen but to dismiss the probability of shows and dealers to enhance that is sort of flawed. maybe you have had some bad experiences with dealers at shows, it happens to us all. consider this, what is more likely to see posted at this site --- a bad experience related to a deal done at a show --- or --- a bad experience somehow related to an internet transaction or eBay sale?? what is more likely to be posted at this site, a stellar coin bought at a show/dealer or an attended auction --- or --- an eBay rip??
working with a dealer that you have taken the time to know and learn to trust will yield one thing you are not aware of --- oppurtunities to buy coins nobody even gets to know are for sale. put another way, you don't know what you don't know.
best of luck with how you have chosen to proceed, please keep us informed with how things are going.
@SanctionII said:
My thought is that the hobby will survive and thrive in the future, in ways that are far different than what the current older generation of collectors experienced.
This is it in a nutshell.
Future collectors will be driven by their experience now. But what they desire will be more readily available than ever before and they'll be more interconnected than ever before.
Our experience shaped our behavior so the current market is a vector sum total of the beliefs and experiences (manifested as actions) mostly of those who grew up in the '50's and '60's.
Things will be very different going forward and, as always, most of the differences are quite unpredictable and some can be seen a million miles away.
CAC, gradeflation, the massive flood of Chinese counterfeits, the generational shift to a cashless society. All major reasons to the sharp decline in collectable coin prices.
@keets said:
best of luck with how you have chosen to proceed, please keep us informed with how things are going.
My instincts seem to be quite good.
Better than a couple of well respected and professional dealers who I've seen make horrible grading mistakes HERE.
But the coin business suffers from a horrible image problem because it attracts scum.
.
It's not if, but when, you will be paying tuition & collectors accept that.
No wonder people choose other things to collect/do with their money
Excuse me if I missed something, but one crucial fact that hasn't been mentioned is that very few young people have developed the attention span to just sit and quietly study something—other than their smartphones, that is. Smartphones offer instant gratification in the way that coins do not. I personally don't think this is a good thing, but it certainly is a fact, and a major barrier to hordes of new collectors getting into the hobby, or any other similar kind of hobby.
Oh for the days of most towns having coin SHOPS.
Man, I can remember that being a part of our Saturday family jaunts.
Find the coin shop in a strange town and go find a BU Seated Dollar or a good selection of large cents.
Yep, that was in 1971.
Up to age 25, I also had Mercs and Walkers in my pocket to spend. More Franklins of course, but the occasional silver dollar wasn't rare to get in change.
_It's over, it's all over except the dying. It ends with us and a few stragglers in a much smaller coin world. A big show will be 25 plus dealers tending to an overwhelming crowd of 76 attendees. The two generations preceding us won't put up with the shenanigans that we tolerate i.e. Grading nonsense over the past 50 years and they don't care to study it. They want more experiential hobbies, mountain biking, clubs, tinder, etc. Look it's dying man!
Now, if you'll please excuse me I have to take an aspirin and lie down for awhile. I bought an 1893-S and 1889 CC in EF 45 CAC this past week and I don't feel too well _
@GritsMan said:
Excuse me if I missed something, but one crucial fact that hasn't been mentioned is that very few young people have developed the attention span to just sit and quietly study something—other than their smartphones, that is. Smartphones offer instant gratification in the way that coins do not. I personally don't think this is a good thing, but it certainly is a fact, and a major barrier to hordes of new collectors getting into the hobby, or any other similar kind of hobby.
i think you have over generalized but all of us now have shorter attention spans due to technology. That being said, our hobby has adapted too. We now have coin forums where you can discuss any topic 24/7 with people anywhere in the world rather than waiting for the monthly coin club meeting. We have at the tips of our fingers information that only insiders use to know. We have constant auctions for almost any price range. PCGS census, CAC census, millions of coin images, the Newman Portal, etc. Yes, society is different but so is our hobby.
The ongoing evolution toward a cashless society is, and will continue to be, a big factor. Kids now don't live the experience handling change every day. I don't think the decline in numbers of collectors is precipitous; it's slow and constant, with the old ones dying off and a declining number of younger ones to replace them. The outlook is best, of course, for coins with great eye appeal and limited supply. These coins tend to stay in "strong" hands for significant periods, they don't circulate in the market frequently. The ordinary "stuff" the comprises 98% of what you see at most shows will have a harder and harder time finding buyers.
Back in the early to mid 1980's, I had a local dealer help and mentor me, which made all the difference to me making the transition from collector to dealer. "ReadyFireAim" if you're happy where you are with your collecting and growth, that's great. Why would horrible dealer grading mistakes have any influence on you?? I've seen both dealers and collectors make big grading boo-boo's (including myself). That's the nature of grading, and frankly, that's how you learn.
@ms71 said:
The ongoing evolution toward a cashless society is, and will continue to be, a big factor. Kids now don't live the experience handling change every day. I don't think the decline in numbers of collectors is precipitous; it's slow and constant, with the old ones dying off and a declining number of younger ones to replace them. The outlook is best, of course, for coins with great eye appeal and limited supply. These coins tend to stay in "strong" hands for significant periods, they don't circulate in the market frequently. The ordinary "stuff" the comprises 98% of what you see at most shows will have a harder and harder time finding buyers.
@keets said:
working with a dealer that you have taken the time to know and learn to trust will yield one thing you are not aware of --- oppurtunities to buy coins nobody even gets to know are for sale. put another way, you don't know what you don't know.
Exactly right. If you're putting together a collection by buying online from dealer's websites, Heritage auctions and eBay, a lot of the coins you're buying have already been passed over by other prospective buyers. And those buyers have already bought the coins you never had a chance to see.
I know hating on dealers is somewhat popular on this message board, but the reality is- plenty of coins that nobody hears about find new homes via dealers who never offer them publicly. Rather, they're sold directly to collectors that the dealer knows to be interested. Depending on what kind of collection you are assembling, you dismiss this avenue at your peril.
my intuition is quite good. life has taught me that people in general talk about their success and not about their failure, sort of like gamblers. I'm sure you will keep us informed when you win, but what about when you lose?? and what will your collection look like seen outside of the bubble that it your reality??
MasonG brings up a good point, a lot of what sits till it gets to a sale point for a frugal collector to buy was passed for a reason. eBay is notorious for being a "dumping ground" and a lot of what ends up at Heritage has failed to sell elsewhere so it goes to auction.
@Ebeneezer said:
The coin market fluctuates constantly. Every series/denomination has it's rise and fall. A lot of which is driven by those with wealth purchasing them as both status symbol and investment. Ten years ago it was the rare coin craze, driven by investors as a hedge against their stock portfolios. That market has leveled off somewhat, some even dropping slightly. Currently we are in the modern coin series for registry bragging rights as recent auction results attest to. Overall, the coin market is stronger than ever and I do not see that changing anytime soon.
>
You haven't looked at the PCGS price indices or else you would not have written what you wrote.
Same for coins, access via internet etc. means more competitiveness, and coin prices will go down for common stuff. For high end rare stuff, simply less people are interested. Prices will continue to go down until they balance out with the fewer active collectors. TPG's and CAC have not helped newbies, all they have done is complicate everything even more. Quite a turn off to folks entering collecting now.
OTH, the bullion collectors coins are doing great. New collectors love the MS70 grades on these flawlessly minted bullion coins and most of the value is in the metal.
Best, SH
>
In the price range most US collectors buy, NCLT is displacing most of the coins US collectors used to buy to some extent. Most modern US proof coinage, US circulating moderns, many circulated classics and even the most widely collected US classic series in higher quality aren't viewed as sufficiently competitive for "share of wallet". There is no reason for the collector who started with the internet to collect the same coins US collectors mostly did in the past in the same proportion, and they won't.
@ARCO said:
I ponder if my experiences in the hobby are similar to others and only extrapolate from that:
Early Ebay era allowed collectors to be their own broker with almost neglible transaction costs. How many collectors started or renewed their love of coins because of the 24/7 Ebay online coin store?
rising coin prices 1999 -2016 allowed coins to be bought and later sold for cost or small to medium sized gains.
No sales tax.
Ultra Low interest rate environment didn't create opportunity cost conflict between buying coins or earning interest. Of course there was the booming stock market, but who gambles there?
All of the above have or are disappearing. Of course, coin prices will find the pricing equilibrium that accounts for the changing dynamics above and will continue to thrive IMO. Collecting stuff is just part of the human DNA.
You are describing the financial aspect of collecting which is important or very important to many collectors. So important to many that it is more important than the coins they buy. It's all true but what it also means is that these (prior) collectors don't have a very strong affinity for collecting, what they buy/previously bought, or both. It's a negative for the price level when the current all everything bubble finally implodes.
As for collecting being part of human DNA, not really. I'd say most US collectors (or maybe Americans generally) believe it but it is evident this isn't the case in any number of cultures. With coins, none were even struck (at all) in Sub-Sahara Africa or in the Americas prior to the colonial period. It's evident that the level of interest among these people is effectively zilch and it isn't because they cannot afford it.
Same for coins, access via internet etc. means more competitiveness, and coin prices will go down for common stuff. For high end rare stuff, simply less people are interested. Prices will continue to go down until they balance out with the fewer active collectors. TPG's and CAC have not helped newbies, all they have done is complicate everything even more. Quite a turn off to folks entering collecting now.
OTH, the bullion collectors coins are doing great. New collectors love the MS70 grades on these flawlessly minted bullion coins and most of the value is in the metal.
Best, SH
>
In the price range most US collectors buy, NCLT is displacing most of the coins US collectors used to buy to some extent. Most modern US proof coinage, US circulating moderns, many circulated classics and even the most widely collected US classic series in higher quality aren't viewed as sufficiently competitive for "share of wallet". There is no reason for the collector who started with the internet to collect the same coins US collectors mostly did in the past in the same proportion, and they won't.
You write alot of "conclusions" with absolutely no basis. For instance, TPG has not helped newbies?? Less people interested in high end rare coins??
You are describing the financial aspect of collecting which is important or very important to many collectors. So important to many that it is more important than the coins they buy. It's all true but what it also means is that these (prior) collectors don't have a very strong affinity for collecting, what they buy/previously bought, or both. It's a negative for the price level when the current all everything bubble finally implodes.
I can't speak for others, but my "affinity" for collecting started around age 11. It was only as I gained financial resources that I was able to particpate. I participated because there was a unique confluence of events that made collecting financially sound: The internet, Ebay and the TPG. I can't imagine too many people that love collecting to the point where they disregard the financial aspect of it. Surely, many realize that coins are not an investment, but those types are not buying 5K + coins much. I have a responsibility to my family and to not needlessly squander money foolishly. I imagine the majority of other collectors have similar constraints especially when you get into the tens of thousands of dollars. The financial aspect of collecting will determine the future of the hobby.
As for collecting being part of human DNA, not really. I'd say most US collectors (or maybe Americans generally) believe it but it is evident this isn't the case in any number of cultures. With coins, none were even struck (at all) in Sub-Sahara Africa or in the Americas prior to the colonial period. It's evident that the level of interest among these people is effectively zilch and it isn't because they cannot afford it.
Well, the Africans don't interest me much because they do not influence the US coinage collector base. US collectors interest me as they are the primary and majority base of US coinage. Whether it is in the DNA (cultural DNA) or because Americans have a lot of extra dollars, collecting is widespread in the USA. This has been the trend since WWII and the start of the baby boomers. The thought process is to extrapolate if this trend will continue into the future. I believe it will.
Same for coins, access via internet etc. means more competitiveness, and coin prices will go down for common stuff. For high end rare stuff, simply less people are interested. Prices will continue to go down until they balance out with the fewer active collectors. TPG's and CAC have not helped newbies, all they have done is complicate everything even more. Quite a turn off to folks entering collecting now.
OTH, the bullion collectors coins are doing great. New collectors love the MS70 grades on these flawlessly minted bullion coins and most of the value is in the metal.
Best, SH
>
In the price range most US collectors buy, NCLT is displacing most of the coins US collectors used to buy to some extent. Most modern US proof coinage, US circulating moderns, many circulated classics and even the most widely collected US classic series in higher quality aren't viewed as sufficiently competitive for "share of wallet". There is no reason for the collector who started with the internet to collect the same coins US collectors mostly did in the past in the same proportion, and they won't.
You write alot of "conclusions" with absolutely no basis. For instance, TPG has not helped newbies?? Less people interested in high end rare coins??
Why don't you read what I actually wrote instead of writing such nonsense? I wasn't talking about high end coins. Where did I even infer such a thing? You just read what you wanted into my posts because you don't like what I wrote before. Absolute rubbish.
@topstuf said:
There's rubbish and there's ABSOLUTE rubbish.
I saw that you "agreed" with his post. I never said anything he claimed. The context of my post was NCLT. It should be obvious that I would not compare NCLT to high end (as in condition census) or the more expensive US coins because those aren't comparable alternatives to a potential buyer. The idea is absurd and I'm not the ignoramus to write such a thing.
@topstuf said:
There's rubbish and there's ABSOLUTE rubbish.
I saw that you "agreed" with his post. I never said anything he claimed. The context of my post was NCLT. It should be obvious that I would not compare NCLT to high end (as in condition census) or the more expensive US coins because those aren't comparable alternatives to a potential buyer. The idea is absurd and I'm not the ignoramus to write such a thing.
I’m not certain, but think there is confusion regarding who posted what. See below, where it appears that you quoted poster spacehayduke and poster Gazes mistakenly thought the conclusions were yours.
« hide previous quotes @spacehayduke said:
Same for coins, access via internet etc. means more competitiveness, and coin prices will go down for common stuff. For high end rare stuff, simply less people are interested. Prices will continue to go down until they balance out with the fewer active collectors. TPG's and CAC have not helped newbies, all they have done is complicate everything even more. Quite a turn off to folks entering collecting now
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@topstuf said:
There's rubbish and there's ABSOLUTE rubbish.
I saw that you "agreed" with his post. I never said anything he claimed. The context of my post was NCLT. It should be obvious that I would not compare NCLT to high end (as in condition census) or the more expensive US coins because those aren't comparable alternatives to a potential buyer. The idea is absurd and I'm not the ignoramus to write such a thing.
I’m not certain, but think there is confusion regarding who posted what. See below, where it appears that you quoted poster spacehayduke and poster Gazes mistakenly thought the conclusions were yours.
« hide previous quotes @spacehayduke said:
Same for coins, access via internet etc. means more competitiveness, and coin prices will go down for common stuff. For high end rare stuff, simply less people are interested. Prices will continue to go down until they balance out with the fewer active collectors. TPG's and CAC have not helped newbies, all they have done is complicate everything even more. Quite a turn off to folks entering collecting now
Yes---I stand by my comment about the quote but it appears that WCC did not originate the statement but merely quoted it in his post. Sorry for the confusion. My main point is that TPG has immensely helped the new collector as opposed to harming them.
@cnncoins said:
I've seen both dealers and collectors make big grading boo-boo's (including myself). That's the nature of grading, and >frankly, that's how you learn.
Mistakes are unacceptable is my point.
Even good dealers are prone to make them more than me because their motivations are different than mine.
Not buying the secret coin trading thing.
Not at my level at least and not in high enough numbers.
@cnncoins said:
I've seen both dealers and collectors make big grading boo-boo's (including myself). That's the nature of grading, and >frankly, that's how you learn.
Mistakes are unacceptable is my point.
Even good dealers are prone to make them more than me because their motivations are different than mine.
Not buying the secret coin trading thing.
Not at my level at least and not in high enough numbers.
What do you consider to be a grading “mistake” and upon what basis do you determine that one has been made?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
My son is not interested in getting married or having children.
Does it occur to your son that if his dad had taken the same position as he with regard to getting married or having children, he would not only be not interested he would be nonexistent?
Whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted with important matters.
@keets said: To be honest. Nowadays the YNs aren't going to be going to as many shows as previous generations. There really is no need to. Everything can be found online,don't get me wrong,I love a good show now and then,but there is no need for it so you won't be seeing as many newer younger fans of numismatics at shows. I've slowly switched over to mostly online transactions and most of my transactions come off of Instagram actually,why go to the show when you have the show at your fingertips??
this should be a caution read by anyone entering the Hobby --- if you think you can isolate yourself and learn how to grade while forming dealer/collector relationships at home you are probably mistaken. especially about learning how to grade and negotiating purchases and sales. coin shows and coin shops are your classroom for that.
dismiss me as an old timer if you want to, but I speak the truth.
So many blindly buy plastic and stickers these days and have no desire to learn. Coin collectors (as opposed to their successor plastic and sticker collecting brethren) are a dying breed.
"Buy the coin holder/sticker and not the holder coin."
@MasonG said:
Interacting with the humans can be difficult, no doubt.
Socially, only about half are that way.
Professionally, I'm not good team player.
@MFeld said:
What do you consider to be a grading “mistake” and upon what basis do you determine that one has been made?
I guess getting it wrong by 1/2 grade would be a mistake.
Maybe if you go to CAC with what you think is an A coin and it comes back rejected.
Or, if you crack one out for a + and it comes back graded lower it would be pretty good evidence of failure.
It's a moot point because I wouldn't let a dealer talk me into anything since I haven't seen one that can demonstrate exemplary grading ability AND complete honesty.
@MasonG said:
Interacting with the humans can be difficult, no doubt.
Socially, only about half are that way.
Professionally, I'm not good team player.
@MFeld said:
What do you consider to be a grading “mistake” and upon what basis do you determine that one has been made?
I guess getting it wrong by 1/2 grade would be a mistake.
Maybe if you go to CAC with what you think is an A coin and it comes back rejected.
Or, if you crack one out and it comes back graded lower it would be pretty good evidence of failure.
It's a moot point because I wouldn't let a dealer talk me in to anything since I haven't seen one that can demonstrate exemplary grading ability AND complete honesty.
I really hope you're not being serious. But in case you are, grading is not nearly as cut and dry, objective or consistent as you seem to think or wish it to be.
If two grading opinions differ by 1/2 point or more, how do you determine which one is "wrong"? Regardless, if a 1/2 grade difference is "wrong" or a "mistake", everyone who has ever graded more than a few coins, has been "wrong" on multiple occasions. And yet you say that "Mistakes are unacceptable.."
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Hobbies, like empires, rise and fall. And they may hit some rough spot along the way. Are we seeing the beginning of the end of the our hobby? Probably not but it may never be what it once was.
I know I started coin collecting when I was back in elementary school. Many of the boys back then were beginning their collections and starting a lifelong hobby. I can remember trading coins and talking about coins with many of my friends back then. I don't sense that's the case today with the kids in school. Just a data point.
I will be making an offer on an estate that is mostly circ silver - barbers, WLH, Franks, Dollars. Silver has been going up, numismatic coins southward side of steady,
The lower pop of collectors is decreasing prices and everybody knows this has been going on for sometime. It will take an influx of new investment to turn numismatic coins around.
It will be smash mouth ball (buy low sell high) as usual. How much lower will the bids drop? MS 65 dollars to $75 or will rising silver prop them up? Why not MS 65 walkers already there and fewer of them vs the high pop top heavy Dollars. I expect a lot of big ticket coins fall big time especially if the jump up from next lower grade huge unless propped up by their wealthy end users.
@Zoins said:
What are the opposite of "collector coins" called? Are they "non-collector coins", “investment coins” or something else?
I'm wondering what to call coins where the prices are stable or going up.
To me, the closest to opposite of "collector" coins" would be "investor coins".
In answer to your question "what to call coins where the prices are stable or going up" - these days, I'd say something along the lines of "lucky ducks", "rare birds" or "select few".
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Comments
I'll take my chances
This is about as close as I want to get to any dealer.
My Saint Set
I think we've heard this story before ...
LIBERTY SEATED DIMES WITH MAJOR VARIETIES CIRCULATION STRIKES (1837-1891) digital album
It’s unfortunate that you feel that way. There are terrible dealers, great ones and many who fall somewhere in between. The same can be said about collectors. And that applies to any other hobby.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Fewer collectibles for the rich means higher prices for them, too. The rest of us are sorting a junk pile, reassembling it and calling it a "collection". The other day, I used a term with a seller. I told him he had a box of "hodgepodge". A few days later he called back and said " This is "hodgepodge Bob", I found another box."
This fits right in line with the initial post. Supplies increase but interest (demand) doesn't.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
This is about as close as I want to get to any dealer.
don't misunderstand me, you can form a perfectly fine collection in the way you have apparently chosen but to dismiss the probability of shows and dealers to enhance that is sort of flawed. maybe you have had some bad experiences with dealers at shows, it happens to us all. consider this, what is more likely to see posted at this site --- a bad experience related to a deal done at a show --- or --- a bad experience somehow related to an internet transaction or eBay sale?? what is more likely to be posted at this site, a stellar coin bought at a show/dealer or an attended auction --- or --- an eBay rip??
working with a dealer that you have taken the time to know and learn to trust will yield one thing you are not aware of --- oppurtunities to buy coins nobody even gets to know are for sale. put another way, you don't know what you don't know.
best of luck with how you have chosen to proceed, please keep us informed with how things are going.
This is it in a nutshell.
Future collectors will be driven by their experience now. But what they desire will be more readily available than ever before and they'll be more interconnected than ever before.
Our experience shaped our behavior so the current market is a vector sum total of the beliefs and experiences (manifested as actions) mostly of those who grew up in the '50's and '60's.
Things will be very different going forward and, as always, most of the differences are quite unpredictable and some can be seen a million miles away.
CAC, gradeflation, the massive flood of Chinese counterfeits, the generational shift to a cashless society. All major reasons to the sharp decline in collectable coin prices.
My instincts seem to be quite good.
Better than a couple of well respected and professional dealers who I've seen make horrible grading mistakes HERE.
But the coin business suffers from a horrible image problem because it attracts scum.
.
It's not if, but when, you will be paying tuition & collectors accept that.
No wonder people choose other things to collect/do with their money
My Saint Set
I am a dealer, If you buy a coin from me, I will make money as that is my job.
What do I offer you, my clients?
Some of the best most eye appealing unique material all in one place. Excellent Customer Service. Advice. Honesty.
Excuse me if I missed something, but one crucial fact that hasn't been mentioned is that very few young people have developed the attention span to just sit and quietly study something—other than their smartphones, that is. Smartphones offer instant gratification in the way that coins do not. I personally don't think this is a good thing, but it certainly is a fact, and a major barrier to hordes of new collectors getting into the hobby, or any other similar kind of hobby.
Oh for the days of most towns having coin SHOPS.
Man, I can remember that being a part of our Saturday family jaunts.
Find the coin shop in a strange town and go find a BU Seated Dollar or a good selection of large cents.
Yep, that was in 1971.
Up to age 25, I also had Mercs and Walkers in my pocket to spend. More Franklins of course, but the occasional silver dollar wasn't rare to get in change.
YOW!
Shows and shops were where I ...met personally.... the bones of the industry.
_It's over, it's all over except the dying. It ends with us and a few stragglers in a much smaller coin world. A big show will be 25 plus dealers tending to an overwhelming crowd of 76 attendees. The two generations preceding us won't put up with the shenanigans that we tolerate i.e. Grading nonsense over the past 50 years and they don't care to study it. They want more experiential hobbies, mountain biking, clubs, tinder, etc. Look it's dying man!
Now, if you'll please excuse me I have to take an aspirin and lie down for awhile. I bought an 1893-S and 1889 CC in EF 45 CAC this past week and I don't feel too well _
Comparing the hobby to what was like 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago is ridiculous.
Looking at coin show attendance as a comparison over the years doesn't really make sense either
The vast majority of the coin business Nowadays is on the Internets.
There were no tubes for the internets to go thru 40 - 50 years ago.
The world is so different now, so much better.
I'm not seeing them on the BST. Do you have a link?
i think you have over generalized but all of us now have shorter attention spans due to technology. That being said, our hobby has adapted too. We now have coin forums where you can discuss any topic 24/7 with people anywhere in the world rather than waiting for the monthly coin club meeting. We have at the tips of our fingers information that only insiders use to know. We have constant auctions for almost any price range. PCGS census, CAC census, millions of coin images, the Newman Portal, etc. Yes, society is different but so is our hobby.
The ongoing evolution toward a cashless society is, and will continue to be, a big factor. Kids now don't live the experience handling change every day. I don't think the decline in numbers of collectors is precipitous; it's slow and constant, with the old ones dying off and a declining number of younger ones to replace them. The outlook is best, of course, for coins with great eye appeal and limited supply. These coins tend to stay in "strong" hands for significant periods, they don't circulate in the market frequently. The ordinary "stuff" the comprises 98% of what you see at most shows will have a harder and harder time finding buyers.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins, justindan, doubleeagle07
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me. . . . . . .
Back in the early to mid 1980's, I had a local dealer help and mentor me, which made all the difference to me making the transition from collector to dealer. "ReadyFireAim" if you're happy where you are with your collecting and growth, that's great. Why would horrible dealer grading mistakes have any influence on you?? I've seen both dealers and collectors make big grading boo-boo's (including myself). That's the nature of grading, and frankly, that's how you learn.
But they won't lower prices to dump them.
Exactly right. If you're putting together a collection by buying online from dealer's websites, Heritage auctions and eBay, a lot of the coins you're buying have already been passed over by other prospective buyers. And those buyers have already bought the coins you never had a chance to see.
I know hating on dealers is somewhat popular on this message board, but the reality is- plenty of coins that nobody hears about find new homes via dealers who never offer them publicly. Rather, they're sold directly to collectors that the dealer knows to be interested. Depending on what kind of collection you are assembling, you dismiss this avenue at your peril.
Just sayin'.
My instincts seem to be quite good.
my intuition is quite good. life has taught me that people in general talk about their success and not about their failure, sort of like gamblers. I'm sure you will keep us informed when you win, but what about when you lose?? and what will your collection look like seen outside of the bubble that it your reality??
MasonG brings up a good point, a lot of what sits till it gets to a sale point for a frugal collector to buy was passed for a reason. eBay is notorious for being a "dumping ground" and a lot of what ends up at Heritage has failed to sell elsewhere so it goes to auction.
Interesting comments....
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You haven't looked at the PCGS price indices or else you would not have written what you wrote.
Same for coins, access via internet etc. means more competitiveness, and coin prices will go down for common stuff. For high end rare stuff, simply less people are interested. Prices will continue to go down until they balance out with the fewer active collectors. TPG's and CAC have not helped newbies, all they have done is complicate everything even more. Quite a turn off to folks entering collecting now.
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In the price range most US collectors buy, NCLT is displacing most of the coins US collectors used to buy to some extent. Most modern US proof coinage, US circulating moderns, many circulated classics and even the most widely collected US classic series in higher quality aren't viewed as sufficiently competitive for "share of wallet". There is no reason for the collector who started with the internet to collect the same coins US collectors mostly did in the past in the same proportion, and they won't.
You are describing the financial aspect of collecting which is important or very important to many collectors. So important to many that it is more important than the coins they buy. It's all true but what it also means is that these (prior) collectors don't have a very strong affinity for collecting, what they buy/previously bought, or both. It's a negative for the price level when the current all everything bubble finally implodes.
As for collecting being part of human DNA, not really. I'd say most US collectors (or maybe Americans generally) believe it but it is evident this isn't the case in any number of cultures. With coins, none were even struck (at all) in Sub-Sahara Africa or in the Americas prior to the colonial period. It's evident that the level of interest among these people is effectively zilch and it isn't because they cannot afford it.
You write alot of "conclusions" with absolutely no basis. For instance, TPG has not helped newbies?? Less people interested in high end rare coins??
I can't speak for others, but my "affinity" for collecting started around age 11. It was only as I gained financial resources that I was able to particpate. I participated because there was a unique confluence of events that made collecting financially sound: The internet, Ebay and the TPG. I can't imagine too many people that love collecting to the point where they disregard the financial aspect of it. Surely, many realize that coins are not an investment, but those types are not buying 5K + coins much. I have a responsibility to my family and to not needlessly squander money foolishly. I imagine the majority of other collectors have similar constraints especially when you get into the tens of thousands of dollars. The financial aspect of collecting will determine the future of the hobby.
Well, the Africans don't interest me much because they do not influence the US coinage collector base. US collectors interest me as they are the primary and majority base of US coinage. Whether it is in the DNA (cultural DNA) or because Americans have a lot of extra dollars, collecting is widespread in the USA. This has been the trend since WWII and the start of the baby boomers. The thought process is to extrapolate if this trend will continue into the future. I believe it will.
Why don't you read what I actually wrote instead of writing such nonsense? I wasn't talking about high end coins. Where did I even infer such a thing? You just read what you wanted into my posts because you don't like what I wrote before. Absolute rubbish.
There's rubbish and there's ABSOLUTE rubbish.
That's definitely total rubbish.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins, justindan, doubleeagle07
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me. . . . . . .
I saw that you "agreed" with his post. I never said anything he claimed. The context of my post was NCLT. It should be obvious that I would not compare NCLT to high end (as in condition census) or the more expensive US coins because those aren't comparable alternatives to a potential buyer. The idea is absurd and I'm not the ignoramus to write such a thing.
How about getting past the personal and back to the subject, please.
I’m not certain, but think there is confusion regarding who posted what. See below, where it appears that you quoted poster spacehayduke and poster Gazes mistakenly thought the conclusions were yours.
“@WCC said:
« hide previous quotes
@spacehayduke said:
Same for coins, access via internet etc. means more competitiveness, and coin prices will go down for common stuff. For high end rare stuff, simply less people are interested. Prices will continue to go down until they balance out with the fewer active collectors. TPG's and CAC have not helped newbies, all they have done is complicate everything even more. Quite a turn off to folks entering collecting now
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
The "show/hide previous quotes" thing does make it confusing sometimes.
Yes---I stand by my comment about the quote but it appears that WCC did not originate the statement but merely quoted it in his post. Sorry for the confusion. My main point is that TPG has immensely helped the new collector as opposed to harming them.
Mistakes are unacceptable is my point.
Even good dealers are prone to make them more than me because their motivations are different than mine.
Not buying the secret coin trading thing.
Not at my level at least and not in high enough numbers.
My Saint Set
What do you consider to be a grading “mistake” and upon what basis do you determine that one has been made?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
My son is not interested in getting married or having children.
Does it occur to your son that if his dad had taken the same position as he with regard to getting married or having children, he would not only be not interested he would be nonexistent?
Whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted with important matters.
Interacting with the humans can be difficult, no doubt.
One of my favorite aspects of the hobby is how positive everyone is and how it uplifts my day
So many blindly buy plastic and stickers these days and have no desire to learn. Coin collectors (as opposed to their successor plastic and sticker collecting brethren) are a dying breed.
"Buy the coin holder/sticker and not the holder coin."
Socially, only about half are that way.
Professionally, I'm not good team player.
I guess getting it wrong by 1/2 grade would be a mistake.
Maybe if you go to CAC with what you think is an A coin and it comes back rejected.
Or, if you crack one out for a + and it comes back graded lower it would be pretty good evidence of failure.
It's a moot point because I wouldn't let a dealer talk me into anything since I haven't seen one that can demonstrate exemplary grading ability AND complete honesty.
My Saint Set
I really hope you're not being serious. But in case you are, grading is not nearly as cut and dry, objective or consistent as you seem to think or wish it to be.
If two grading opinions differ by 1/2 point or more, how do you determine which one is "wrong"? Regardless, if a 1/2 grade difference is "wrong" or a "mistake", everyone who has ever graded more than a few coins, has been "wrong" on multiple occasions. And yet you say that "Mistakes are unacceptable.."
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Easy....
The one that's not mine
My Saint Set
Hobbies, like empires, rise and fall. And they may hit some rough spot along the way. Are we seeing the beginning of the end of the our hobby? Probably not but it may never be what it once was.
I know I started coin collecting when I was back in elementary school. Many of the boys back then were beginning their collections and starting a lifelong hobby. I can remember trading coins and talking about coins with many of my friends back then. I don't sense that's the case today with the kids in school. Just a data point.
What are the opposite of "collector coins" called? Are they "non-collector coins", “investment coins” or something else?
I'm wondering what to call coins where the prices are stable or going up.
I will be making an offer on an estate that is mostly circ silver - barbers, WLH, Franks, Dollars. Silver has been going up, numismatic coins southward side of steady,
The lower pop of collectors is decreasing prices and everybody knows this has been going on for sometime. It will take an influx of new investment to turn numismatic coins around.
It will be smash mouth ball (buy low sell high) as usual. How much lower will the bids drop? MS 65 dollars to $75 or will rising silver prop them up? Why not MS 65 walkers already there and fewer of them vs the high pop top heavy Dollars. I expect a lot of big ticket coins fall big time especially if the jump up from next lower grade huge unless propped up by their wealthy end users.
To me, the closest to opposite of "collector" coins" would be "investor coins".
In answer to your question "what to call coins where the prices are stable or going up" - these days, I'd say something along the lines of "lucky ducks", "rare birds" or "select few".
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Unicorns.
"Unicoins"