Perceptions on buying a condition rarity modern - Statehood Quarter NEWP
BryceM
Posts: 11,737 ✭✭✭✭✭
Many years ago I became enamored with doing a nice business-strike 20th Century Type Set. I started with a few inexpensive coins and gradually improved them over the years to the set you see in my sigline below. It currently ranks #3 in the Registry behind Hansen (obviously) and High Desert. My set is #5 on the all-time list.
When assembling a set like this you're left with a few decision to make. The focus of course is on the Barbers, SLQs, Merc dime, Buffaloes, the Peace dollars, and such. One big question for me was the statehood quarter. These don't fascinate me all that much. When I put the set together an MS67 could be had for $20 while an MS68 would go for $1200 or more and few were ever offered for sale. When they were, they were usually offered at ridiculous prices. Well, that didn't seem like a good gamble to me at the time.
I settled for this one and I paid $20 for it on eBay:
The 1999 SHQ issues weren't all that nice compared to later dates. This one is OK with strong details, nice luster, but a bit of chatter on the portrait and neck.
Recently I noticed this one in a weekly HA auction and decided to put a bid on it. When collecting coins like this you have a problem...... they don't show up in the big auctions. Dealers seldom have them, and lot viewing for weekly auctions is pretty rough if you don't live next door to the auction house. Sometimes you just got to pay your money and ride the ride.
Yes, there are a few superficial hits that are exaggerated by my lighting technique. I think the photos are a bit over-exposed. In-hand, the 68 is visibly nicer than the 67 and I'm satisfied with the coin. Again, these don't come very nice very often. This is a pop 21 coin with one MS69. I don't know the pop numbers years ago, but I imagine they were lower and the 69 is a relatively new development I think. It has a price guide value of $10.5k!!!!!
My coin has sold at HA three times:
- May 2007 - $1380
- Now 2007 - $1150
- Jun 2019 $ - $480 (to me)
A different MS68 sold at HA in Dec 2018 for $720
I really didn't think I would win this but I did, at a number below my maximum bid.
I'm left pondering........ Good deal, quality upgrade, registry madness, a rip, a stupid move, or what? Somehow I can't imagine there's much upside potential here, but potential resale value is only one consideration in this madness we call coin collecting.
I'm absolutely certain, that no matter what happens it will always be worth $0.25. 
Your thoughts?
Comments
Yes. All that. 😉
I think your newp was well thought out and I'm on board.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
I like the MS68 a lot more than the MS67, especially the overall luster and Washington’s face and neck.
I’m not sure I like it 24 times more but it’s clearly nicer to me.
My gut thought is that the prices will continue to move down but how much or how fast is completely unknown. Perhaps in five years you will have overpaid but it is also just as possible that pops will settle here for awhile and you'll be fine. At the end of the day as collectors we are always balancing the price paid with the joy of ownership, I think in the big picture you did just fine. Congrats on the newp.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Yep, it will always be worth 25 cents.
Nice upgrade - I'll be looking for that 69 for ya...
Probably not a lot of 1999 coins being submitted.
My thought is that the pops will go up but not dramatically.
Yes, there are a few superficial hits that are exaggerated by my lighting technique. I think the photos are a bit over-exposed. In-hand, the 68 is visibly nicer than the 67 and I'm satisfied with the coin.
this is the problem with pictures and trying to compare different coins. to me, the MS67 looks nicer and even though you admit that the "lighting technique" shows marks, it most likely also enhances the look of the luster. the texture of the MS67 appeals to me and I would expect if submitted together either coin could grade either grade.
The highest quality circulation coins will eventually be appreciated; but not the others.
That depends on your definition of appreciation. I’m guessing there are many more appreciated raw circulation coins from hours of enjoyment than slabbed coins. Of course, they may not be worth very much but that’s not necessary for appreciation.
You got a very good deal. I would pay you a profit on the coin today. Not tomorrow (can’t predict tomorrow) but today.
Wondercoin
Zoins - Hence, the ambiguous word....
This is a game I won’t play. Many rolls of these coins have been saved, and many sets were built when the State Quarters were popular. Only a tiny percentage have been graded. Add to that grading standards that can change over time, and you end up with too many variables.
This can happen with the classic coins were the mintages and surviving populations are much lower. I was shocked when I saw the Greysheet bid for the Type II Liberty $20 gold piece in MS-63. Then I checked out some of the coins that Heritage had sold recently at the lower levels. MS-63 for these coins is not what it used to be.
It's not my cup of tea, but you are knowledgeable enough about coins to know what you're doing. If you're happy, then I am happy for you.
I'll also note that in the era of hyper grade inflation and crack out extremes, I'm shocked the prices are still so high. Maybe this issue will perform better long term than many (myself included) probably think.
I did not collect SHQ's specifically, but I do have mint sets from that period, as I imagine many others do also. I would expect there may be some 69's out there.... Cheers, RickO
That’s more than my exonumia which has a floor of zero!
RE:
Jun 2019 $ - $480 (to me) ... Your thoughts?
Still moving down.
I am still upset I didn't sell my 1999 silver proof sets when they hit 400 dollars per set
Good comments y’all. I agree with most everything that has been said. With perfect foresight we’d know if prices are soft but will eventually rebound (buying opportunity) or if we’re on a slow slide to zero.
Also it’s impossible to know how many more are out there, waiting to be “made.”
For me, when I divide by seven, carry the one, and multiply by the square root of two..... it seemed like a reasonable time for this coin to be in my collection.
I will add that coins like this are a fringe area in my collection. I’m much more inclined to pursue classic silver and coins that are actually rare(ish).
Bryce, from what I can see, you upgraded a coin with a gouge in its adam's apple and chatter on the cheek, jawline and upper neck, for one with chatter below the device and on less sensitive areas of the obverse. You're a thoughtful guy, so it won't break the bank.
Still, I'm with Bill Jones on this. Gradeflation and new finds have pummeled pricing of pretty much everything minted from the mid to late 19th century forward.
I have a mint sewn bag of Mass P and D quarters I bought when they were first minted. I also saved around thirty various state quarters from change when they were first minted. Some may be 8s. I should look at auction prices and think about submitting them.
It bother me, but this is numismatics today.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I think many of the previous comments are spot on. This was my observations of a condition rarity over time. A proof versus circulation strike but given mint sets and proof sets, I am sure more are out there to be graded. Demand and supply rule here. https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1011191/the-life-of-a-mass-produced-modern-in-top-pop-condition-rarity
I absolutely love the statehood quarter series.
IMO, the absolute best way to collect the series is the look for super eye appealing major mint errors which are extremely rare for most of the states.
Interesting observations. It makes me wonder why anyone pays the big bucks for these when they first appear. The 1999 SHQs are now 20 years old, hard to believe.
This is from CoinFacts. If I remember I’ll revisit this thread in a few years.
I think this is what's important- it's your collection and you know the formula better than anyone else as it pertains to when and if the time is right to add or subtract from your collection. I continue to buy coins I like and want as part of my collection and if I tried to explain my formula it would not be as logical and rational as this example.
Here's my take...
Not something I would have purchased BUT, if you needed just one for your Registry set...…Well, I understand.
Sounds like prices have been coming down a lot due to more and more submissions and higher pop numbers but you bought yours 'right'.
It doesn't look like a bad coin for what it is, anyway.
Now, if you had an entire set of these, then I'd admonish you a lot more.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947)
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I still like the set. I think that the series is 20 years old from the start. It wont be long before the younger generation of collectors remembers these and start looking for better coins for their collections. Sure, lots in albums and folders and rolls still, but I don't know if it will cause the population to balloon.
There is only 1 graded higher and the coin was issued 20 years ago.
While obviously not s rare coin in mint state, in thus level of preservation, yes, I think it's rare.
@FSF
The original mintage of P-mintmark Connecticut quarters was 688,744,000. Only the Virginia was made in larger quantities.
Yes, loads were saved, especially of the first year of issue. Many were sold to collectors in rolls and many in bags. Most issues are still available this way. I'm sure the mint sold plenty of these. I looked for numbers, but couldn't find any. For the sake of argument say they sold 100-coin ($25) bags to 20,000 collectors. Let's say an equal amount were sold in rolls or $250 bags. That equates to 4 million coins, or 0.6% of the mintage. I'm guessing the true number is a small fraction of that. The rest were released to circulation and as we all know, quarters are the one coin in the U.S. that actually still circulates.
So, while I might agree that they are not rare, it would be a gross exaggeration to state that "There are hundreds of millions of probably uncirculated copies, if not over a billion in some cases, of each mintmark that have never been graded."
Supposedly (I am the opposite of a SHQ expert), the coins in bags are uncirculated, yes, but generally not in high grades. Funny - many of them have bagmarks, just like every other mint product that is released in bags. The rolls are apparently better.
I think the number of MS67/68/69 coins will go up over time, but I think the majority of these that will ever be submitted already have been.
I defer to the forum members who are experts in clad coinage for their gestalt on this.
I don't know but what I do know is that I see this same argument for every clad coin. With the older clad I do know the coins are rare because I've spent over half a century looking at them and nearly as long collecting them. Indeed, most of these are even tough in BU rolls so only the mint sets have candidates.
I haven't systematically searched the states coins. I can say though that the '99 issues were generally poorly made because the mint hadn't cared about quality in many years and were out of the habit of making nice coins. While that has changed now these early states coins were not very nice. I have looked at a few mint sets and the CT coin isn't that bad but I certainly see that it's never going to be readily available in these higher grades. BU roll coins are pretty bad and there probably aren't quite so many as you think since it took several months to get the new coins available at banks. The FED had always just dumped clad in circulation and didn't anticipate the widespread demand among the public for BU rolls. Most banks limited buyers to one roll. There may well be 40,000,000 in rolls but a very tiny percentage are higher than MS-66, Even nice attractive MS-65's are keepers.
A lot more than 40 million were initially set aside but vast numbers of them have been spent or released since then.
The states and parks coins may really surprise people someday. An MS-60 MI quarter may never be worth much but there are others that could surprise almost everyone.
If anything I think when the kids that grew up with these reach middle age and have more income to spend, these may have more interest.
It isn't a lack of money. There are already plenty of collectors who grew up with this coinage who are buying coins in this price range ($740), From what I can see, they overwhelmingly prefer NCLT which is why they aren't buying it.
Also, if you want to see what the potential future counts on this type of coin could be, take a look at the South Africa 2008 Mandela Birthday 5R. Most are in NGC holders but the last time I checked, MS-68 was 113 and is now 268 (71 at PCGS). It is over 40,000 in 67 up from the 20,000s, Original mintage is either 5MM or 22MM, don't know due to conflicting accounts. The future survival rate in elite quality will be higher on this coin than any US modern since it was the focus of a speculative bubble but the potential future supply is still noticeably larger than recorded now.
I don't see the problem here. You needed a high grade for this GREAT set. You got it pretty cheap. It's not like you bought the whole set like this...……..that would have my head shaking. One coin for a GREAT set...….no problem.
Now if you upgrade to 69 at the tune of 10K...….you will have lost me!
I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that you know more about states quarters than I do since I've never systematically sought them in high grade. But I do know people say the exact same thing about coins I do know about and they couldn't be more wrong. There aren't millions of 1969 or 1982 quarters that you can look through and even if there were only a tiny percentage are Gem.
People believe all modern are common and they all come nice. Both beliefs are simply wrong.
Philly CT quarters are not scarce in any way but the fact is even mint set coins are rarely over MS-65.
I've long believed the registry actually hurts moderns because many people think that they are already "sufficiently" collected and studied by registry set collectors. I believe there'd be more modern collectors if people realized how tough just the nice BU examples can be. Without the demand the prices are low and the guides then understate value anyway which makes it difficult for knowledgeable sellers to find buyers. Tough coins only go for a dollar or two and scarcities are limited to the cost of grading.
Ironically I campaigned for including moderns in the registries back in the '90's. I was wrong.
I'm sure you're right that there are a lot of CT Philly quarters set aside. They did ramp up the mintages for these by this time. I believe though that early in the program a lot of people were saving all the states coins even in circulated condition and this is what was causing the huge mintages rather than the setting aside of BU rolls. As the coins in circulation began approaching 30% by 2004 most people quit trying to save them all and they began flooding into circulation. Some of the states issues have significant premiums in BU. While none are tough large premiums do suggest that the coins are not so common as most perceive. It's a tough call. There's a huge supply and significant demand.
I've got a few (5?) nice P CT quarters set aside though I'm sure none are very special. They're just nice Gems.
@BryceM
I agree with you that not many CT quarters are being submitted, and it's likely that the better examples already have been.
My take is that the average roll quality coin is 64ish.
The bags are hit and miss.
Certainly not overflowing with 68's though.
But some people who dismiss moderns think that MS68 coins are in every bag/roll...
That is not the case.
Sure, gems are common and this date is common in grades up to 66...and 67s have been suffering because most set collectors already have one so the price pressure is not there.
I don't see a huge increase in the pop #s for these coins in the future.
This is one aspect of the registry that is objectionable to me. Filling a hole simply to comply with registry requirements and not because one appreciates the actual coin must be less than satisfying. Not for me and certainly not for hundreds of dollars for the privilege to comply with a registry format.
The coins are almost certainly scarcer in better grades than most collectors believe but also almost certainly not as scarce as you have implied or stated in your prior posts. The survival rates are very low but the absolute numbers are not. Now, you and I have a different working definition of "scarce" or "rare" but except for the condition census coin and sometimes one grade below, none of these are hard to buy except for specialization. Remember our prior discussion on 69-D quarters? If you don't, eBay had a listing of 23 "BU" rolls or 920 coins when you claimed it was hard to find. If it doesn't meet your quality standards, it does for most buyers in this series.
Not being able to find one of these coins out of circulation doesn't make any of these coins scarce in "nice BU" as a date/MM combination. Most collectors also don't place the same emphasis on strike quality you do; literally almost no one or else the price would reflect it. That's the (implied) standard you have used in the past.
There is no shortage of modern collectors. Most of them just won't pay the prices you believe these coins should be worth. Given what the primary alternatives cost (recent US classics in comparable grades), I still can't figure out why you think it should be any different. The price differences are immaterial and both are so common that the scarcity difference doesn't matter to most collectors either.
Well, it's not my favorite coin in the 20th Century, but it is a US coin from that period and I don't mind it. Besides, it's not just the registry. Any 20th Century album will have a hole for it. Choosing an expensive coin for the slot (or any slot) is a matter of personal preference.
Besides, you can't have a favorite unless there is also a least favorite.
For the record, my least favorite coin in the set is the zincoln.
You know, honestly, you are forging a path forward. Irregardless of what anyone may say, for, or, against, you are pushing the ball further in regards to these modern state quarters, and for the hobby. I believe condition rarity, and PL examples will hold value in the long run...also, varieties.
Remember our prior discussion on 69-D quarters? If you don't, eBay had a listing of 23 "BU" rolls or 920 coins when you claimed it was hard to find. If it doesn't meet your quality standards, it does for most buyers in this series.
I'm not sure what you are remembering.
Original 1969 quarter rolls are quite scarce. I haven't seen one since 1969. The coins in these rolls were usually quite ugly and this is just one of the reasons people never saved them. The main reason, of course, is no one collected clads and there was no market for rolls.
There are put together mint set rolls in existence but these are hardly common. These rolls are distinguishable from original rolls because the coins are well struck and scratched up instead of poorly struck and scratched up. 90% of mint set coins used to look awful but now most all of them are tarnished as well.
A person willing to pay Redbook prices for any old US coin will soon be buried alive in them. A person willing to pay Redbook prices for a nice Gem modern might never find a single specimen. Even worse is most buyers (advanced collectors) of something like a 1969 quarter aren't looking for an MS-65 (Redbook $5), they are looking for higher grades that Redbook doesn't even list. This leaves people with the mistaken impression that all modern clad quarters are pretty common.
There are not original rolls and rolls and rolls of eagle reverse clad quarters just waiting for higher prices so people can dig through and ship off the Gems. Not even all the states quarters rolls are as common as people imagine the older ones are.
The '69-D is a slightly more "common" roll for the clads. I've seen a couple dozen of these over the years. It was saved in larger numbers because of its lower mintage and much higher quality. It's not as common as something like a '48-S roll but for an early clad it is really quite common. Oh, and you'd probably need to find 30 or 40 of these (good luck with that) to find one good enough to grade. Gems are common in the sets though many are tarnished now.
I might add that '48-S quarters come quite nice in the rolls and very few are tarnished. If you go through 30 or 40 rolls you'll find half a roll of nice Gems with a few in higher than Gem. It wouldn't take so much to find them if you are willing to pay over bid and make a few phone calls.
You won't find this "common" 1969 clad roll unless you are very patient and offer about 5 times bid. You'll have to send back a bunch of put together rolls but you won't get many original rolls.
The '48-S roll in nearly $400 and the '69-D is $35.
This is the state of the market.
I didn't say 1969, but 1969-D and I never said it was an original roll either, as the listing didn't say one way or another. The listing did claim 23 "BU" rolls though obviously it was impossible to know the exact quality. But regardless, I already answered your point. The coins aren't as common as most collectors (or the public) thinks but are certainly a lot more common than you are implying.
In the past, I have "guesstimated" that the scarcer dates in this series are a Judd R-2 with 501-1250 in PCGS MS-66. That's almost certainly an understatement. How do I reach this conclusion? For one, by comparing it to the visible survival rates of much older and known scarcer coins. The 1864 Bolivia Centavo has a reported mintage of 10,000 with six graded AU-55 or better now. Assuming no more exist (probably wrong), that's a survival rate of 1/1650 and 1/3300 in MS, even in a backward isolated country with essentially no collecting, then or now. The example I gave you is almost certainly effectively a random event. For clad quarters, not necessarily, as it only takes an irrelevant number to save "large" numbers to noticeably impact the survival rate. Even with a survival rate of 1/100,000 in MS-66, the actual number will usually be a noticeable multiple of my "guesstimate".
The RedBook doesn't list values for all TPG grades. It could but if it did, probably not what you think it "should be" anyway. On the few occasions I have checked eBay completed sales, the prices were all over the place even in the same grade, exactly as should be expected. I have never seen even one post of yours where you indicated you did the same.
The primary point I was trying to make is that there is no reason to expect collectors to care about your point. Late date Mercury dimes cost about $20 in PCGS MS-66 while many (most?) clad dimes sell in the vicinity of $5 to $10. Even if the Mercury is 10 times as common, both can be bought any time. Same outcome with more examples than we can discuss here. Except to the few who agree with you, the price difference is immaterial and the scarcity is too. Collectors place a "low" price on these coins because it is common and priced "comparably" to the alternatives which have a much higher preference.
Collectors do not collect in a vacuum where they are going to ignore what I am telling you. You don't see this as our post exchanges make it evident you don't understand collector motivation.
Many bought uncirculated rolls of state quarters from the mint. I don’t know the quality of those rolled coins but I suspect there are many unopened rolls sitting in collections. The eagle back clads may be harder to come by in original rolls but I don’t think the state quarters will ever be too difficult to find in original rolls.
Of value is a price "guide" if it is inaccurate and doesn't list coins that do trade? They can list a 1969 quarter in Gem as being a $5 coin forever but the fact is if you desire a well made and pristine '69 quarter you probably aren't going to find it at anywhere near this level. Dies were poor, strikes were worse, and then the coins were beaten up. Coins made for circulation were even worse and there might not be a single Gem in all the original rolls that survive.
Ultimately the only things that matter from a price perspective are demand and supply. If there were a tenth as many people demanding a 1969 quarter in Gem as a '39 merc in Gem than the quarter would have a higher value.
I thought it would happen long ago but I still believe that someday the clad quarter will have more demand than the mercury dime. This will happen because a whole generation raised on clad is coming to the fore right now. It just doesn't matter what any of us believe. Price is set by supply and demand and at this time the prices in the guides are stifling the markets. This will resolve itself one way or the other; either the guides will get corrected or they will become obsolete.
Some of the quality is pretty good (especially later dates).
But I agree the states coins will be available in rolls for many years. Every coin shop has them and many are still getting dumped into circulation.
It's not 1964 all over again but there are sufficient quantities of most dates to keep premiums from developing at this time.
The problem then and now is one of very little demand. If a population doubles from 5 to 10 and the price falls 90% it doesn't make a coin "common" it merely reflects the fact that there are only nine collectors. There are lots more coins out there ungraded but anyone who believes they can pick the coins up cheaper if they just wait is almost certainly in for a very rude awakening. The fact is people hate these coins and very few are waiting for lower prices.
Some of the Morgan dollars have thousands graded and they still bring good money. ...Because the demand can absorb this supply quite easily right along with the higher and lower graded coins.
I still believe that in the long run most moderns are a good bet and they have always been a great area to collect. I'm already selling but this is just to get it done so they bring the best possible price "now". It's a big job and I don't want to leave it behind me.
People collect what they want to. It's not a problem, it's just what it is.
I think that there are a lot of people collecting modern series, but they buy below the moon money grades. The demand for ultra high grade moderns is very very thin. I don't see this changing myself. JMHO
Yep. If the big jump in price is from 65 to 66, people will be satisfied with a 65. If the jump happens between 64 and 65, they'll buy the 64.