The life of a mass produced modern in top pop condition rarity
Batman23
Posts: 4,999 ✭✭✭✭✭
I have been watching the 1975-S PR70DCAM coins for about 10 years now. I was looking at the PCGS registry at the time and you only need three proofs for a complete set for this year. Cent, Nickel and Dime. I had a couple of each in PR69DCAM which got a pretty high score in the ever popular registry but the elusive 70DCAM Dime was what made it a winning set. No nickels or cents existed in the 70DCAM grade at the time. I researched and watched the 15 top pop 70DCAM dimes at the time and found the following history over the last ten years interesting.
The first auction price I found was a Heritage 2004 auction of the lone pop 1 PR70DCAM dime which sold for a whopping $6,038… That there is a lot of money for a modern dime!
In 2005 there were now 13 of these dimes graded 70DCAM and the auction price was about $1,500 to $1,800. Not much changed through 2007 where there were only 15 dimes graded 70DCAM. The price was starting to slip down a little at this point to about $1,200.
2008 started showing prices under $1,000 with a little rebound in 2009.
2010 is showing a pop of 19 dimes in 70DCAM. A Heritage auction brought a high $1,600 price while a few Teletrade and Ebay auctions brought a more realistic $880-$980.
2011 showed a bloom in the population to 28 70DCAM dimes. The prices also picked up a little to the $1,000 range… minus the $288 steal someone got from a Stacks auction (That same dime sold for almost $1,100 on Teletrade the following month).
In June, 2011, while researching a new PR70DCAM dime to the scene and entering consecutive cert numbers into the PCGS cert verifier I realized that the first PR70DCAM nickel had been graded. A couple more were added to the top pop over the next year or two.
2012 showed the dime pops increasing to 33 but the prices were still holding around $1,000 +/- a couple hundred.
Then came 2013 and the fall of the prices. Evidently the pop of 34 was too much supply for the overall demand. Prices started to stabilized in the $500-$600 range through the first half of 2014. The second half of 2014 brought prices under $400 and a spike in the population.
January 2015 I am showing a population of 51 dimes and an increased population to 101 dimes by December. Prices drop from $350 in January to a couple selling under $100 by years end.
January 2015 also showed the fragile value of condition rarity starting again… with the nickels. Now having a population of six 70DCAMs one sold for $5,640! However this value did not hold long as 2015 showed population growth from 6 to 24 pieces and prices dropping from $5,640 to $1,100 just as fast. The current population of 70DCAM nickels is 45 with current prices in the $517 to $800 range.
As for the dimes… 2016 to current shows a population still rapidly growing with 216 PR70DCAMs currently graded. The prices were trying to hold around $100 but are still falling. A sale on Ebay this month brought $56.
As for me, I bought a 70DCAM dime three years ago for $173. Evidently I bought too soon and paid too much. This is a prime example of why I am very cautious with the high dollar conditional rarities of mass produced modern coins.
Anyway, I just thought this was an interesting example of one date and it’s top pop value history that I could share.
Now bring on the cent!
Comments
"Two cents in my Pocket is better than two sense in my Head
Thank you for your decade worth of observation .... sure of it to be true on others as well.
Interesting information, thanks for sharing !!!
Really good story, thanks for writing it up.
Always buying nice toned coins! Searching for a low grade 1873 Arrows DDO Dime and 1842-O Small Date Quarter.
I sincerely believe that you are throwing your money away being coins which are pricey due to condition rarity, and not being rare coins themselves. Again, I believe this applies to most coins which are being bought and sold today.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Your story is one that has played out in all modern series with the rare exception. I witnessed the same scenario in Lincoln varieties after PCGS started attributing and slabbing them. I made several pop 1 in all grades early on, only to see them devalue as others were found and attributed. It was an eye opening experience. Thanks for sharing your information.
Great info Batman...appreciate the work.
It's harder to get a perfect score on business strikes. Proofs are designed to be perfect and there are a lot of them.
Thanks a lot for sharing your valuable experiences and observations... That would definitely be helpful for a lot of young collectors out there
Interesting
Hey why didn't I think of that? Because. Great analysis for us all. Peace Roy
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Kinda throws out the old mantra, "well, they ain't minting them any more!". That statement is true, but it skips that part about so many out there that could be sent in for grading.
I remember some of the insane pricing for late 50's wheat cents in MS-67 years ago. As the populations grew, the prices fell like a rock. The ones that got those grades early and sold made out very well. With mintages approaching billions you figure there had to be more 67's out there, gradeflation notwithstanding.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
OT but I wonder how much fun it is in the grading room to be squinting intensely at clad dimes all day?
@Batman23....Excellent analysis.... and important for those who focus on condition rarity.... Get in early, make the profit and run....An analysis of graded coins by the TPG's could produce areas where there is money to be made short term...I am sure there are those out there doing just that.... Too much like work for me...
Cheers, RickO
I never got into looking at modern proof sets for 70's (sort of the inverse of separating fly sh** from pepper) but regarding circulation strikes there are some issues today that are still low in population and would bring good money in this market.
So when Saddle Ridge II hoard is found, among which is a mint sewn bag of 1893-S silver dollars, what will happen to the prices of that coin.
Just look at what has happened to 95-W silver eagles in 70. They used to be $50k coins; now, just a fraction of that.
Andrew Blinkiewicz-Heritage
I have learned that if there is something (modern) I want in top condition, wait. It should come down to reasonable levels in time. I have the different Alaska quarters in top pops but I waited for the hype and the price to fall to what I considered reasonable for a modern. The pops will increase, demand will not be as intense, the price will fall.
Still waiting on the palladium Winged Liberty coins... but they will get there...
Regarding a source for quantities of circulation strikes to search, does anyone know if Julian Jarvis is still around?
I would expect the prices to drop a bit. But there is a large collector base and demand for Morgan Dollars that a bag would easily be absorbed into the existing collections. They would likely be treated like a Key that maintains value even with plenty of supply... think 1909-S VDB.
But that is a whole different subject and why I mention "mass produced moderns" here in this thread...
I still find it amazing that top pop coins that are readily available in choice BU still can bring moon money (1941-D NGC MS68FS
Jeff 5c in current HA FUN auction) in this down market.
I think the most infamous thread about top pop coins ran I am guessing 10 years ago about someone who paid something like $35K for a top pop 53 S Franklin graded FB MS 66. Within 18 months, another was made, and the guy unloaded his coin for half of what he paid for it. Painful stuff to read.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
If the person who bought the Pop 1 dime in 2004 is still holding, that is a 99% loss or 6 grand up in smoke!
I never liked the idea of monster premiums for 70 vs. 69 coins. But that is what makes a market. Buy and hold and you are left with an empty bag.
At least with top pop Morgans you can see the difference without powerful equipment.
I enjoyed your research! Very good info.
Those 1975 coins tended to sneak around unnoticed for awhile because of all the 76 Bicentennial stuff.
If anything, it shows the fragility of price on modern stuff.
Pete
I see the same thing happening at a much faster rate with the 2018 Reverse Proofs in 70. I have a specific price I wish to pay. Some times I win but most of the time I get outbid. As the prices drop, I then adjust my bid pricing. I find that the bargains are there, you just have to be patient
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Hey.....stop it!
I am trying to do the same thing!
There is a reason why I got around to updating my proof cents to grade 70 only last year...still holding out on a few. And you understand exactly why. Great notes on the topic. But one other observation. As the new proofs come out they never get to those ridiculous prices and quickly fall within the the year of issue. This is great news for those who felt they had to pay $1000+ for a modern proof...
WS
It seems odd that it would cost more for a recent coin, minted in the millions and never circulated, than a 200 year old coin that saw heavy circulation and melting and there are maybe one or two thousand remaining in all conditions, most of them heavily worn and steeped in history.
Picture the stacks of coins, if you could somehow gather All of the remaining 1975-S and, say, 1825 dimes into one place.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Just goes to show the power of the registry and the competitive drive to be number one. I can't imagine much other reason to slab so many coins that are "normally" worth less that the cost of the grading fee.
So true!! I will toss my ego out all day long and continue searching for early historical coins in circulated condition.
I recently showed a draped bust half dollar in VF condition to someone at work that knows nothing about coins but said she had some odds and ends from her parents. Her jaw dropped and she thought it was the coolest thing. I doubt that she would have had the same reaction if I had pulled out an MS 69 modern Lincoln cent.
I remember Laura, @specialist, warning people about paying very high prices for condition rarity moderns on this forum.
It would need to be a PCGS MS70 CAC
Old money IS better than new.
when did the take the brownnose flag away from us?
just kidding @zoins
Laura does NOT like top pop Moderns. It is her opinion. Maybe I know too much bout them.
The physical difference between a 69 grade and a 70 grade is not enough to justify the wide price disparity, in my opinion.
I have been involved with this as a dealer for quite some time and let me just tell you that first of all, the prices bring out the effort. Second, there is not much difference on this date between a 69 and 70, so in bulk it is up to the graders to distinguish between a cameo and a deep cameo. I predict that nearly all of the graded 70's are really cameo's and not deep as the deep and perfect combination is truly a rare coin. Third, the technology has changed over the past 15 years and there are ways to maximize the look of your coin in the bulk program in order to have a chance at getting this grade.
If only I could get coin discounts this way
Not sure if you remember, but those were some heated conversations in these forums, even complete with flamethrowers
I appreciate the analysis very much, but have you seen enough of the coins to know if they really did "make" more or did the grading standard change? I remember extensive discussions about FS nickels and how pops changed because some of the newer ones weren't really FS.
I have only looked at online photos however I have seen some 70s that appeared to have a minor blemish and probably deserved a 69 instead. But at this level, you are mostly buying the plastic and the status position it represents. I don't know if you can change the standard of "perfect" but maybe they dimmed the lights a little in the grading room...
3% of the PCGS pop report is 70DCAM. The other 97% shows that most are not perfect.
I think there was a high value seen in 70s with a low pop. The modern guys threw a lot of dimes at PCGS to see if they could make a buck. I watched the 70DCAM pop swell from 15 to 216 but there are now over 6,500 graded 69s too. Someone somewhere made a bunch of money...
Coin dealers have saved new coins by the roll for more than a century. The roll speculation phenomenon got started in the early 1960s. Although some of those rolls were turned in at face value after the price increases failed to materialize, a fair number of them still survive. Given proper storage, there is always the possibility that more high grade pieces will turn up. In addition although the numbers are going down, original mint sets also provide sources for more high grade coins, especially in the late 1940s and ‘50s. The situation is even more likely for Proof coins.
My point is paying very high prices for top grading moderns carries a greater risk than paying high prices for older coins, which were not saved in such high quantities.
Excellent and informative post!
U.S. Type Set
Thanks - very interesting!
I've been following Roosevelt Dimes for over 16+ yrs and the O.P. is absolutley spot on. Prices were absolutely insane for certain PR70DCAM Dimes from about 1977 back to 1973. From 1978 forward they were high but doable. The 73-77 yrs were all 4 digit dimes. Very high prices and the more that have been made over the yrs the prices have fallen. Heck you can get most of the dates (Minus the silver ones and the type-2's) for around $20 or less. In fact my friend Keith bought a 70DC Dime for under $8.00 delivered. IMHO L & C coins out of California really ruined the proof market. They've been selling runs of 70's every week on eBay for yrs.
Later, Paul.
It is hard to tell whether it is from grade inflation or increased submissions from very well preserved moderns. Maybe it is a bit of both.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1016494/multiple-posts-on-march-18-2019-2-39pm