If gold moves up too fast.....
bonds are affected negatively
Can you please explain how you think this happens?
You left out the middle part of that sentence, by the way. The dollar is involved as well. I didn't mean to suggest a causal relationship, but a psychological link. And I did explain it, to wit - the psychological impact on markets - especially in the context of our current government finance fiasco -
A spiking gold price draws attention to the trainwreck of government finance and therefore it has to be suppressed or the government bond market will fail and the Fed will lose it's symbiotic host.
So the govt shouldn't own any national parks, fish hatcheries, shipping ports, aircraft carriers, rocket building and launching sites, natural or man-made antiquities, etc?
The US Constitution specifies defense, but technically - not national parks, shipping ports, or antiquities, and if those items are to be covered, the Constitution provides a legal framework to include them, and it's not Congress's business to do that. In my opinion, the "welfare clause" needs to be fully defined and put into the Constitutional framework through the amendment process.
Why should a govt only own "money"?
The government shouldn't own money. The government should be responsible for it's own responsibilities and obligations, especially for repaying it's own debt promises - just like everyone else.
Off-budget financing of covert operations - militarily and financially, and also including social programs that result from government largesse - should be highly illegal and punishable by imprisonment. I've never understood why these things need to be hidden from the people who pay for them.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said: Putting stock profits and free time mostly into real estate and a small business venture, but will get active selling PMs if you guys are right and it makes a new high before i croak.
Will you be dumping the real estate in a hurry if it skyrockets and upsets the portfolio balance? Same question for the small business venture, if it becomes wildly successful?
I'm chiding you on a bit, to see if your attitude about the metals is somehow treated differently. Metals probably should be treated differently in all fairness, because metals are in fact a different asset class.
The (re) balancing is a general concept -diversification- not an obsessive mathematical exercise that's very frequent or micromanaged. Yes, the different assets have, by definition and design, different characteristics.
Stocks and cash accounts have high liquidity and discrete market value, and low maintenance cost, and zero personal utility. I tend to build positions slowly and then sell chunks at advantageous times (as they mature) to diversify or spend.
Real estate has low liquidity, fluid and nebulous market value, rather high time and cost of maintenance, but also rather high utilization, and also provides both capital growth and income. I've never sold a property; of the 3 with mortgages, one is nearly paid off, one about half, and the newest still owe 2/3 of the value.
The metals and coins are my oldest and most personal investments, some ive had for 45 years, and they have sentimental value. They're private, portable, divisible, no counterparty risk, etc etc.. They have medium liquidity and value determination, and rather low maintenance cost, SDB rental. Made some good money selling some stuff in 2010-2012, but obviously should have sold ALL my generic gold and silver back then. But I'm not a "dumper" in any case, do plan to start scaling out of junk metal if/when we see those prices again. Have always preferred rare coins so some of that money would stay in tangible assets. The rest ( as well as stock sales) will go toward real estate equity and improvement.
Expecting to live another 20 or 30 years, so sure have more behind me than ahead, but as i said, love the metals, and would enjoy someday being "right" once again about buying and holding them all this time
@derryb said:
collector coins yield no cash flow. Why hang on the them?
Know what's funny? Everything is relative. While I may be one of the skeptical bearish ones on this forum for having "only" 9% of my assets in PMs, to literally everyone else i know, I'm the "metals nut" with a huge piles of gold and silver, who encourages them to pick up a few coins for a rainy day.
@derryb said:
They are a sign of a weak economy and validate the boom bust cycles created by FED policy.
They are the opposite of your strong economy proclamation.
The economy has been much more stable after the creation of the FED than before. This is very well documented and you can research yourself.
I do not believe i have made any comments on the strength of the economy in quite a while. However, it has been doing quite well for the better part of a decade, contrary to your proclamations.
Financial crises occur on a regular basis including 1987, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2007-08
Yet here we are.
Add in 1991. There was a significant recession in '91 that likely kept George H.W. from a second term. I remember it well because I got canned in April of 1991.
"Timing" any market in today's reality.......good luck with that.
Aurum, is...insurance.
As are other elements in your portfolio, no pun intended.
Risk... tisk, tisk, tisk.
All a product of OUR votes. It aint gonna change until WE change.
This comment by cohodk was the most accurate stated, I agree with what is being said as well as being positioned in silver rather then gold. Metals are so weak right now look at the performance every year since 2015 we just keep stepping down and will take a fall even more later this year. I would not play the fear game if something big happens metals always go on sale at first anyway this will be a slow but sure process I see a permeant change in life come for everyone over the next ten years it kind of sad I think. There will not be a run on metals before 2020 to much to take place first, for now just get the pop corn and watch the same clowns do what they do and that is nothing for the good people of America.
I could not get the link to work here is what the new bill states.
U.S. Congressman Introduces Bill to Remove Income Taxation from Gold and Silver
The battle to end taxation of constitutional money has reached the federal level as U.S. Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) today re-introduced sound money legislation to remove all federal income taxation from gold and silver coins and bullion.
Congressman Alex X. Mooney (R-WV)
Sound money activists have long pointed out it is inappropriate to apply any federal income tax, regardless of the rate, against the only kind of money named in the U.S. Constitution. And the IRS has never defended how its position squares up with current law.
Furthermore, the U.S. Mint continuously mints coins of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium and gives each of these coins a legal tender value denominated in U.S. dollars. This formal status as U.S. money further underscores the peculiarity of the IRS’s tax treatment.
A tax neutral measure, the Monetary Metals Tax Neutrality Act states that “no gain or loss shall be recognized on the sale or exchange of (1) gold, silver, platinum, or palladium coins minted and issued by the Secretary at any time or (2), refined gold or silver bullion, coins, bars, rounds, or ingots which are valued primarily based on their metal content and not their form.”
Under current IRS policy, a taxpayer who sells his precious metals may end up with a capital “gain” in terms of Federal Reserve Notes and must pay federal income taxes on this “gain.”
But the capital “gain” is not necessarily a real gain. It is often a nominal gain that simply results from the inflation created by the Federal Reserve and the attendant decline in the Federal Reserve Note dollar’s purchasing power.
Under Rep. Mooney’s bill, precious metals gains and losses would not be included in any calculations of a taxpayer’s federal taxable income.
“Inflation is a regressive tax that especially harms wage earners, savers, and retirees on a fixed income,” said Jp Cortez, policy director at the Sound Money Defense League. “We are encouraged to see legislation targeting the evils of the Federal Reserve System.”
“The IRS does not let taxpayers deduct the staggering capital losses they suffer when holding Federal Reserve Notes over time,” said Stefan Gleason, president of Money Metals Exchange, a precious metals dealer recently named “Best in the USA” by a global industry ratings group.
“So it’s grossly unfair for the IRS to assess a capital gains tax when citizens hold gold and silver to protect them from the Fed’s policy of currency devaluation.”
Optimism about personal finances among Americans at 16 year high.
Looking back to Year 2000 or so and the type of leadership we had from 2000 to 2016, this is completely understandable - although the whole premise is built upon unprecedented levels of all kinds of debt which is unsustainable.
Not so sure that it's very relevant.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Baleys comment caused me to take pause....yours now makes me want to find a fallout shelter.
I just don't think that the debt-based economy will stand. It's always been flawed and you can't fix it. All you can do is to keep inserting Aces and Jokers, and re-shuffling the deck.
After awhile, the rest of the people at the table can see how the game is played, so don't delude yourself that "we've reached a new permanent plateau". This game will ruin a lot of people who think they are winning in the market and that their pensions are safe. The stock market will absolutely crash without constant fed liquidity injections. Be forewarned, although it should be 100% obvious to anyone with two connected neurons.
If you want to see the future, look no further than New York, Illinois, or California - all states with poor management who all want to vote themselves federal bailouts - each of them seeing people move away because of high taxes to fund the largesse they've created in order to buy the votes of the dependents and public unions that their programs create.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
For the most part, what youve written has happened many times, yet, here we are.
The states you mention still have plenty of room to raise taxes, so the road of can destruction is still quite long. To add, the Federal Govt, especially after lowering taxes, now has more room to raise them.
I certainly dont advocate increasing taxes, just stating there is much more blood that can be drained.
The crisis you seek is not financial, but societal. What insurance do you have for that?
Sounds like Alex Jones has more a grip on you than on me. Regardless of what you think of him, Jones isn't the only commentator being banned and shadow banned. That's a fact that ought to concern you unless you're addicted to CNN & MSNBC, FOX, NBC, CBS, WaPo, & NYT - lol.
I'm somewhat prepared for a crisis, but I'm not seeking one. So please don't pretend to know what I seek. If I had to specify what I'd wish for, it would be a complete re-vamp of banking & gov't finance. You know, basic stuff like accountability - instead of what we get now from the banks & gov't. If that were to happen, I wouldn't define it as a crisis, I'd call it a blessing.
But don't worry, Japan has 200% debt/GDP
And no natural resources and a declining population.
So, who do YOU think wins the race to the bottom? Define "winner".
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
"The fact is, dark money is the #1 secret life force of today’s rigged financial markets. It drives whole markets up and down. It’s the reason for today’s financial bubbles. Dark money rules the world, and it could keep the bull market running longer than most people expect, even though the eventual turnaround could be ugly."
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Comments
If gold moves up too fast.....
bonds are affected negatively
Can you please explain how you think this happens?
You left out the middle part of that sentence, by the way. The dollar is involved as well. I didn't mean to suggest a causal relationship, but a psychological link. And I did explain it, to wit - the psychological impact on markets - especially in the context of our current government finance fiasco -
A spiking gold price draws attention to the trainwreck of government finance and therefore it has to be suppressed or the government bond market will fail and the Fed will lose it's symbiotic host.
So the govt shouldn't own any national parks, fish hatcheries, shipping ports, aircraft carriers, rocket building and launching sites, natural or man-made antiquities, etc?
The US Constitution specifies defense, but technically - not national parks, shipping ports, or antiquities, and if those items are to be covered, the Constitution provides a legal framework to include them, and it's not Congress's business to do that. In my opinion, the "welfare clause" needs to be fully defined and put into the Constitutional framework through the amendment process.
Why should a govt only own "money"?
The government shouldn't own money. The government should be responsible for it's own responsibilities and obligations, especially for repaying it's own debt promises - just like everyone else.
Off-budget financing of covert operations - militarily and financially, and also including social programs that result from government largesse - should be highly illegal and punishable by imprisonment. I've never understood why these things need to be hidden from the people who pay for them.
I knew it would happen.
Perhaps if the metals threw off a cash flow he might not be so quick to dump it?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
collector coins yield no cash flow. Why hang on the them?
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
The (re) balancing is a general concept -diversification- not an obsessive mathematical exercise that's very frequent or micromanaged. Yes, the different assets have, by definition and design, different characteristics.
Stocks and cash accounts have high liquidity and discrete market value, and low maintenance cost, and zero personal utility. I tend to build positions slowly and then sell chunks at advantageous times (as they mature) to diversify or spend.
Real estate has low liquidity, fluid and nebulous market value, rather high time and cost of maintenance, but also rather high utilization, and also provides both capital growth and income. I've never sold a property; of the 3 with mortgages, one is nearly paid off, one about half, and the newest still owe 2/3 of the value.
The metals and coins are my oldest and most personal investments, some ive had for 45 years, and they have sentimental value. They're private, portable, divisible, no counterparty risk, etc etc.. They have medium liquidity and value determination, and rather low maintenance cost, SDB rental. Made some good money selling some stuff in 2010-2012, but obviously should have sold ALL my generic gold and silver back then. But I'm not a "dumper" in any case, do plan to start scaling out of junk metal if/when we see those prices again. Have always preferred rare coins so some of that money would stay in tangible assets. The rest ( as well as stock sales) will go toward real estate equity and improvement.
Expecting to live another 20 or 30 years, so sure have more behind me than ahead, but as i said, love the metals, and would enjoy someday being "right" once again about buying and holding them all this time
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Know what's funny? Everything is relative. While I may be one of the skeptical bearish ones on this forum for having "only" 9% of my assets in PMs, to literally everyone else i know, I'm the "metals nut" with a huge piles of gold and silver, who encourages them to pick up a few coins for a rainy day.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Went long on JNUG in the $6's and still holding.
Also long in ERX for oil play as hedge.
GLTA
100% Positive BST transactions
No risk of recession? LOL
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Recessions happen all the time and are part of the economic cycle.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
They are a sign of a weak economy and validate the boom bust cycles created by FED policy.
They are the opposite of your strong economy proclamation.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
The economy has been much more stable after the creation of the FED than before. This is very well documented and you can research yourself.
I do not believe i have made any comments on the strength of the economy in quite a while. However, it has been doing quite well for the better part of a decade, contrary to your proclamations.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
yep, the spring is tightly coiled.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
The Next Financial Crisis
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Investors who dollar cost average and rebalance at asset sector highs and lows welcome the opportunities that a good crisis provides.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
But there are so few of us. The majority suffers, and usually at some expense to the minority.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
From your link...
Financial crises occur on a regular basis including 1987, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2007-08
Yet here we are.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If everyone did it, it wouldn't work.
😁
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Add in 1991. There was a significant recession in '91 that likely kept George H.W. from a second term. I remember it well because I got canned in April of 1991.
bancroft.berkeley.edu/ROHO/projects/debt/1990srecession.html
In years past, this thread would have had hundreds of comments by now. Have we all become apathetic?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It's been thoroughly covered:
"2019, this is the year it all goes to hell!"
"No, it isn't."
What else is there to say?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"2019, this is the year it all goes to hell!"
"No, it isn't."
Is too!
I knew it would happen.
Is not!
Yah huh!
Nuh uh!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
What about, "this time is different"?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What about, "this time is different"?
or maybe, "What? Me Worry?"
I knew it would happen.
"Timing" any market in today's reality.......good luck with that.
Aurum, is...insurance.
As are other elements in your portfolio, no pun intended.
Risk... tisk, tisk, tisk.
This comment by cohodk was the most accurate stated, I agree with what is being said as well as being positioned in silver rather then gold. Metals are so weak right now look at the performance every year since 2015 we just keep stepping down and will take a fall even more later this year. I would not play the fear game if something big happens metals always go on sale at first anyway this will be a slow but sure process I see a permeant change in life come for everyone over the next ten years it kind of sad I think. There will not be a run on metals before 2020 to much to take place first, for now just get the pop corn and watch the same clowns do what they do and that is nothing for the good people of America.
I could not get the link to work here is what the new bill states.
U.S. Congressman Introduces Bill to Remove Income Taxation from Gold and Silver
The battle to end taxation of constitutional money has reached the federal level as U.S. Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) today re-introduced sound money legislation to remove all federal income taxation from gold and silver coins and bullion.
Congressman Alex X. Mooney (R-WV)
Sound money activists have long pointed out it is inappropriate to apply any federal income tax, regardless of the rate, against the only kind of money named in the U.S. Constitution. And the IRS has never defended how its position squares up with current law.
Furthermore, the U.S. Mint continuously mints coins of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium and gives each of these coins a legal tender value denominated in U.S. dollars. This formal status as U.S. money further underscores the peculiarity of the IRS’s tax treatment.
A tax neutral measure, the Monetary Metals Tax Neutrality Act states that “no gain or loss shall be recognized on the sale or exchange of (1) gold, silver, platinum, or palladium coins minted and issued by the Secretary at any time or (2), refined gold or silver bullion, coins, bars, rounds, or ingots which are valued primarily based on their metal content and not their form.”
Under current IRS policy, a taxpayer who sells his precious metals may end up with a capital “gain” in terms of Federal Reserve Notes and must pay federal income taxes on this “gain.”
But the capital “gain” is not necessarily a real gain. It is often a nominal gain that simply results from the inflation created by the Federal Reserve and the attendant decline in the Federal Reserve Note dollar’s purchasing power.
Under Rep. Mooney’s bill, precious metals gains and losses would not be included in any calculations of a taxpayer’s federal taxable income.
“Inflation is a regressive tax that especially harms wage earners, savers, and retirees on a fixed income,” said Jp Cortez, policy director at the Sound Money Defense League. “We are encouraged to see legislation targeting the evils of the Federal Reserve System.”
“The IRS does not let taxpayers deduct the staggering capital losses they suffer when holding Federal Reserve Notes over time,” said Stefan Gleason, president of Money Metals Exchange, a precious metals dealer recently named “Best in the USA” by a global industry ratings group.
“So it’s grossly unfair for the IRS to assess a capital gains tax when citizens hold gold and silver to protect them from the Fed’s policy of currency devaluation.”
Dream on
Optimism about personal finances among Americans at 16 year high.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Optimism about personal finances among Americans at 16 year high.
Looking back to Year 2000 or so and the type of leadership we had from 2000 to 2016, this is completely understandable - although the whole premise is built upon unprecedented levels of all kinds of debt which is unsustainable.
Not so sure that it's very relevant.
I knew it would happen.
Sounds like you are saying that leadership has changed so we should no longer feel optimistic?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Optimism about gold among Americans at 10 year high.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Is that something you just made up, or is thete some research behind it. The comment Baley made does appear to based on research.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A 10 year price chart disagrees.
High optimism (as shown in recent price gains) is a result of that long term price chart.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
22 trillion and counting
Gold's all time dollar-adjusted high value was 40 years ago.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Sounds like you are saying that leadership has changed so we should no longer feel optimistic?
Are you looking in a mirror and seeing everything backwards? I'm saying that it's hard to think it could have become any worse.
I knew it would happen.
Verily. Baleys comment caused me to take pause....yours now makes me want to find a fallout shelter.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Baleys comment caused me to take pause....yours now makes me want to find a fallout shelter.
I just don't think that the debt-based economy will stand. It's always been flawed and you can't fix it. All you can do is to keep inserting Aces and Jokers, and re-shuffling the deck.
After awhile, the rest of the people at the table can see how the game is played, so don't delude yourself that "we've reached a new permanent plateau". This game will ruin a lot of people who think they are winning in the market and that their pensions are safe. The stock market will absolutely crash without constant fed liquidity injections. Be forewarned, although it should be 100% obvious to anyone with two connected neurons.
If you want to see the future, look no further than New York, Illinois, or California - all states with poor management who all want to vote themselves federal bailouts - each of them seeing people move away because of high taxes to fund the largesse they've created in order to buy the votes of the dependents and public unions that their programs create.
I knew it would happen.
For the most part, what youve written has happened many times, yet, here we are.
The states you mention still have plenty of room to raise taxes, so the road of can destruction is still quite long. To add, the Federal Govt, especially after lowering taxes, now has more room to raise them.
I certainly dont advocate increasing taxes, just stating there is much more blood that can be drained.
The crisis you seek is not financial, but societal. What insurance do you have for that?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
@cohodk - don't tell me what I seek. Again, you try to put words in people's mouths to cover for the banking cartel.
Whose observation would it be about how much more blood can be drained? Where is that coming from?
I knew it would happen.
Dude, you really do need to be a comedian. You really are hilarious.
Its interesting to go back and read your comments from years ago compared to today. Alex Jones surely has a grip on you.
I was referring to getting more money (taxes) from the people to keep kicking the can.
Contempt has ruined many a good man jmski.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
1 trillion in 11 months
But don't worry, Japan has 200% debt/GDP
And no natural resources and a declining population.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Sounds like Alex Jones has more a grip on you than on me. Regardless of what you think of him, Jones isn't the only commentator being banned and shadow banned. That's a fact that ought to concern you unless you're addicted to CNN & MSNBC, FOX, NBC, CBS, WaPo, & NYT - lol.
I'm somewhat prepared for a crisis, but I'm not seeking one. So please don't pretend to know what I seek. If I had to specify what I'd wish for, it would be a complete re-vamp of banking & gov't finance. You know, basic stuff like accountability - instead of what we get now from the banks & gov't. If that were to happen, I wouldn't define it as a crisis, I'd call it a blessing.
But don't worry, Japan has 200% debt/GDP
And no natural resources and a declining population.
So, who do YOU think wins the race to the bottom? Define "winner".
I knew it would happen.
Bubble? What bubble?
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
And the FED blinked
"The fact is, dark money is the #1 secret life force of today’s rigged financial markets. It drives whole markets up and down. It’s the reason for today’s financial bubbles. Dark money rules the world, and it could keep the bull market running longer than most people expect, even though the eventual turnaround could be ugly."
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
dark money did not prevent the near collapse of the "mortgage banking" industry and it did not fix it either.
but the info is coming from our friends at zerohedge. so it must be accurate