When you buy anything from the Mint, you are doing them a favor and supporting their cost structure. When the item is a non-precious metal, non-circulating coin - it may as well be a medal. There is no residual value for a 75,000 mintage item like this in 20 years. It's a very temporary "manufactured rarity".
With the never-ending proliferation of Mint varieties and finishes, and add to that all of TPG certification permutations, it simply becomes a paper-chase. Eventually, it grinds down most collectors and defeats the objectives of the Mint. Forcing collectors into smaller and smaller groups of specialty collecting doesn't promote the hobby, in my opinion. It promotes myopia and higher barriers to entry in each category or series - not a good thing for reaching out to larger crowds.
Neither does the production of manufactured rarities add to any allure. Rarity ought to be natural - this phenomena of manufactured rarity has too many layers - too many profit margins to satisfy - with too many hands reaching into collector pockets - a constant milking of the market by the Mint, the tpgs, and the flippers. For a $9.95 item that turns itself into a $35 proposition - it becomes a vexation.
end of rant
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
When you buy anything from the Mint, you are doing them a favor and supporting their cost structure. When the item is a non-precious metal, non-circulating coin - it may as well be a medal. There is no residual value for a 75,000 mintage item like this in 20 years. It's a very temporary "manufactured rarity".
With the never-ending proliferation of Mint varieties and finishes, and add to that all of TPG certification permutations, it simply becomes a paper-chase. Eventually, it grinds down most collectors and defeats the objectives of the Mint. Forcing collectors into smaller and smaller groups of specialty collecting doesn't promote the hobby, in my opinion. It promotes myopia and higher barriers to entry in each category or series - not a good thing for reaching out to larger crowds.
Neither does the production of manufactured rarities add to any allure. Rarity ought to be natural - this phenomena of manufactured rarity has too many layers - too many profit margins to satisfy - with too many hands reaching into collector pockets - a constant milking of the market by the Mint, the tpgs, and the flippers. For a $9.95 item that turns itself into a $35 proposition - it becomes a vexation.
end of rant
I agree with some of this, but I think it is much more complex.
Actually, the Mint LOSES money on a lot of their commemorative coins and medals. They are simply mandated to make them by Congress.
You don't have a crystal ball. There could well be significant value for a 75,000 mintage item in 20 years. There's at least 75,000 S-VDB cents out there. Do I think it likely? No. But I also believe S-VDB cents will be dropping in value over 20 years. But my crystal ball isn't any better than yours.
You don't have to like NCLT or modern Mint products. You don't have to buy them. But I would suggest trying to be more open-minded about how they affect the hobby. Just because people collect differently doesn't mean they don't collect. There are a LOT of NCLT collectors out there.
I also wonder why you need specify "non-precious metal". That also indicates a personal bias. Why is the Palladium proof coins not another perfect example of NCLT hype? Just because it's palladium? I would buy a copper-nickel version of the Palladium coin because I like the design. I won't spend $2k to acquire the palladium version because I don't like it THAT much.
Let me throw this out there, because I think it could be true:
What if there are more American Silver Eagle collectors than Morgan dollar collectors? Are they wrong because they think ASE when you say "silver dollar"? Or, are they just different?
Why can't a collector choose to only collect Washington Quarters from 1965 to present? Why can't a collector choose to only collect proof coins? [Even 19th century proofs are manufactured rarities.]
I would also suggest that "manufactured rarity" isn't much different than "promoted popularity". A lot of coins with cachet have it because of the Max Mehl's of the world. Did people naturally become date/mintmark collectors or did the existence of date/mintmark albums make them think that was the best way to collect? Why are 1856 Flying Eagles so valuable when they are simply the most common patterns? Why does anyone want a 1913 Liberty Nickel when it likely was a completely fabricated coin?
You aren't wrong about the psychology here or a lot of the problems inherent in the hobby. But I'm not sure a not-so-limited mintage of 75,000 on one of THREE different finish Innovation $s is the canary in the coal mine.
As I say, I agree with a lot of what you say. But I also think that "classical collectors" are enemies of the hobby because they so easily dismiss people that are "collecting wrong".
@jmski52 said: Since they went unavailable on “opening” day +1 then the above number should be total sales for the first and second day. Very nice of someone(s) to buy them almost all up.
Any bets on where prices land in 3 months?
My guess: $25 - $35 range. What's your guess?
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
@jmski52 said: Since they went unavailable on “opening” day +1 then the above number should be total sales for the first and second day. Very nice of someone(s) to buy them almost all up.
Any bets on where prices land in 3 months?
My guess: $25 - $35 range. What's your guess?
In the near term, I think $20-25. You've got the first set of designs coming out - also in reverse proof - and there will be some buzz on these until exhaustion sets in on this NCLT set.
In the long run? Maybe $10. Maybe $5. I don't think this series of coins is going to fare any better than the State Quarters did 10 years later. Probably worse given that they aren't circulating coins and only hardcore collectors will even care.
Of course, it all depends on perspective. If I'm a flipper with 80 of these in stock, they are the next 1995-W Silver Eagle. If I'm a collector who missed the one-day window to order from the Mint, it's "oh crap, here we go again!"
The same phenomenon applies to Modern Bullion as to NCLT coinage, but at least bullion has a floor beneath it's price and a possible wind beneath it's sails, should the metals take off some day.
It's not that I don't like NCLT, because I've collected those series avidly from their inceptions. It's that it does get old, adding multiple profit margins on top of the Mint's pricing - on top of endless new varieties and finishes - all at multiple built-in premiums. I invest in precious metals issues and straight precious metal bullion. I also collect common coinage from circulation - in addition to nice Large Cents.
In some cases, I accept the built-in margins, such as in nice Large Cents. In other cases such as straight bullion, margin matters. My sensitivity to cost & margin depends on what the item may be. In my opinion, non-precious metal NCLT manufactured rarities don't warrant spending the money.
Occasionally, I cut back on the issues I collect - usually in response to Mint policy. I used to buy 15 proof Silver Eagles every year beginning in 1986 until Phillip Diehl decided to introduce his manufactured 1995-W rarity. I subsequently sold all but a few of that Silver Eagle accumulation. It just wasn't worth my loyalty, and I stopped buying Silver Eagles for collecting/speculating/investing purposes right then and there.
My point is that the Mint simply can't seem to help itself. I can't be the only one who sees this for what it is - a dilution of the market and abuse of the hobby. I do agree - collect what you like, speculate where you like, invest where you like. But I balk at being continually abused.
My guess: $25 - $35 range. What's your guess?
My guess is the same as yours. And declining steadily over time from there.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
Of course, it all depends on perspective. If I'm a flipper with 80 of these in stock, they are the next 1995-W Silver Eagle. If I'm a collector who missed the one-day window to order from the Mint, it's "oh crap, here we go again!"
As I said, I do agree with much of what you say.
I would also suggest that the flipper isn't who the "manufactured rarity" is aimed at. It's aimed at the collector. They need the collector to think that you can "win" on these commems so people keep buying them.
@jmski52 said: Since they went unavailable on “opening” day +1 then the above number should be total sales for the first and second day. Very nice of someone(s) to buy them almost all up.
Any bets on where prices land in 3 months?
My guess: $25 - $35 range. What's your guess?
In the near term, I think $20-25. You've got the first set of designs coming out - also in reverse proof - and there will be some buzz on these until exhaustion sets in on this NCLT set.
In the long run? Maybe $10. Maybe $5. I don't think this series of coins is going to fare any better than the State Quarters did 10 years later. Probably worse given that they aren't circulating coins and only hardcore collectors will even care.
Have you checked the ebay sales lately? You are underestimating the popularity of some of the "small dollar" sets, from the Sacs to the Presidential ones.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
@jmski52 said: Since they went unavailable on “opening” day +1 then the above number should be total sales for the first and second day. Very nice of someone(s) to buy them almost all up.
Any bets on where prices land in 3 months?
The reason to get them out (sold) before then if one is a dealer. At the three month mark it’ll be slabs that some will want to keep their AI collection and/or registry up-to-date/competitive (if not sooner).
As long as the Mint is una then the only recourse for... everyone is third party sellers/dealers.
In the long run? Maybe $10. Maybe $5. I don't think this series of coins is going to fare any better than the State Quarters did 10 years later. Probably worse given that they aren't circulating coins and only hardcore collectors will even care.
Have you checked the ebay sales lately? You are underestimating the popularity of some of the "small dollar" sets, from the Sacs to the Presidential ones.
I check eBay sales all the time. And, as someone who has a hard time selling most of the "small dollar sets" on eBay, I think my "underestimating" is actually pretty accurate. LOL
series of coins is going to fare any better than the State Quarters did 10 years later. Probably worse given that they aren't circulating coins and only hardcore collectors will even care.
Have you checked the ebay sales lately? You are underestimating the popularity of some of the "small dollar" sets, from the Sacs to the Presidential ones.
I was too lazy to buy on the first day, perhaps subconsciously spooked by my bad experience buying the recent coin and currency set (defective notes). Anyway, when I got around to looking at the on day 2 they were unavailable.
I bought the proof version late last year but may well end collecting the series with that one coin since now I can't have a complete set (from the mint).
It is absurd that the Mint would allow a sell-out on a somewhat "normal" coin after only a day or two. The casual collector or the collector who was not online for a day or two will now miss out on the RP. It is bad enough that they crank out these endless collectables that only coin collectors buy, but now you have to be online on day 1 at high noon or you may miss out.
The mint would have soaked me for many hundreds of dollars over the life of this program, but if I cut the cord now they will end up with nothing from me.
On expected hot items I think the high relief St. Gaudens was a good model - mintage limited to a certain time period (one month). If it is instead going to be a set mintage it should be one that will last more than a day and a half. (In the case of this RP they could have accomplished that by not lifting the HHL so soon).
@JBK said:
I was too lazy to buy on the first day, perhaps subconsciously spooked by my bad experience buying the recent coin and currency set (defective notes). Anyway, when I got around to looking at the on day 2 they were unavailable.
I bought the proof version late last year but may well end collecting the series with that one coin since now I can't have a complete set (from the mint).
It is absurd that the Mint would allow a sell-out on a somewhat "normal" coin after only a day or two. The casual collector or the collector who was not online for a day or two will now miss out on the RP. It is bad enough that they crank out these endless collectables that only coin collectors buy, but now you have to be online on day 1 at high noon or you may miss out.
The mint would have soaked me for many hundreds of dollars over the life of this program, but if I cut the cord now they will end up with nothing from me.
On expected hot items I think the high relief St. Gaudens was a good model - mintage limited to a certain time period (one month). If it is instead going to be a set mintage it should be one that will last more than a day and a half. (In the case of this RP they could have accomplished that by not lifting the HHL so soon).
Again, I think you have to look at the bigger picture.
The Mint wants there to be a sense of urgency to buy, otherwise people will defer months or years. The Mint prefers a sell out, scrapping excess inventory creates a loss.
And what would you do with something like the Palladium coin? Mint 100k of them even though you can't sell more then 15k of them? Those sold out quickly with a HHL of 1.
And if there is no price increase ever in the secondary market, people just stop buying. Look at what happened to the number of annual proof sets and mint sets sold. You don't think that is unrelated to the lack of a secondary market for them, do you?
@JBK said:
I was too lazy to buy on the first day, perhaps subconsciously spooked by my bad experience buying the recent coin and currency set (defective notes). Anyway, when I got around to looking at the on day 2 they were unavailable.
I bought the proof version late last year but may well end collecting the series with that one coin since now I can't have a complete set (from the mint).
It is absurd that the Mint would allow a sell-out on a somewhat "normal" coin after only a day or two. The casual collector or the collector who was not online for a day or two will now miss out on the RP. It is bad enough that they crank out these endless collectables that only coin collectors buy, but now you have to be online on day 1 at high noon or you may miss out.
The mint would have soaked me for many hundreds of dollars over the life of this program, but if I cut the cord now they will end up with nothing from me.
On expected hot items I think the high relief St. Gaudens was a good model - mintage limited to a certain time period (one month). If it is instead going to be a set mintage it should be one that will last more than a day and a half. (In the case of this RP they could have accomplished that by not lifting the HHL so soon).
Again, I think you have to look at the bigger picture.
The Mint wants there to be a sense of urgency to buy, otherwise people will defer months or years. The Mint prefers a sell out, scrapping excess inventory creates a loss.
And what would you do with something like the Palladium coin? Mint 100k of them even though you can't sell more then 15k of them? Those sold out quickly with a HHL of 1.
And if there is no price increase ever in the secondary market, people just stop buying. Look at what happened to the number of annual proof sets and mint sets sold. You don't think that is unrelated to the lack of a secondary market for them, do you?
I understand that there is a bigger picture - probably many of them. However, for me, someone who might have been in for the entire series, the day and a half sell out is a huge disincentive to continue the series. There has to be a reasonable middle ground between an almost immediate sell out and a coin that languishes in the catalog for a year. When collectors get fed up and stop buying the entire coin hobby/market suffers.
As for the secondary market, I do not think the mint should build a business model around flippers and huge dealers. If the huge dealers can make money ordering thousands of sets and selling them over time, the mint can, too. Also, if collectors get fed up, then there will be no one to support the secondary market.
I've often wondered what would happen if a person/dealer bought an ENTIRE run of Mint coins. Monopoly? Looks like this may have somewhat happened. Perhaps there needs to be large order limits too.
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ve to continue the series. There has to be a reasonable middle ground between an almost immediate sell out and a coin that languishes in the catalog for a year. When collectors get fed up and stop buying the entire coin hobby/market suffers.
As for the secondary market, I do not think the mint should build a business model around flippers and huge dealers. If the huge dealers can make money ordering thousands of sets and selling them over time, the mint can, too. Also, if collectors get fed up, then there will be no one to support the secondary market.
I think you slightly miss my point. The Mint doesn't care about flippers or huge dealers. If you spend $1 million per year with them (or whatever the bulk minimum is now), they give you frigging 5% off - FIVE FRIGGING PERCENT! They are not good to their bulk buyers.
The price appreciation is meant to entice COLLECTORS not flippers. If the collector feels like they are sinking money in a sinking (price) ship, they stop buying.
I imagine the occasional lack of availability is also meant to entice subscriptions. Look at those engravings that essentially sold out to the subscribers.
@Akbeez said:
I've often wondered what would happen if a person/dealer bought an ENTIRE run of Mint coins. Monopoly? Looks like this may have somewhat happened. Perhaps there needs to be large order limits too.
That's the point of the HHL and the subscriptions. The Mint also has the ability to adjust orders down to prevent that.
I do not think that's what happened here. It is hard to separate first day sales from the total, but there were 15,000+ orders on the 1st day and 4,000ish in the first 45 minutes after noon. Now, those weren't all these sets, but I wouldn't be surprised if 40 or 50,000 sets were sold before the household limit was lifted.
I do think someone bought 10,000+ to finish buying them out
@Akbeez said:
I've often wondered what would happen if a person/dealer bought an ENTIRE run of Mint coins. Monopoly?
And then they melted all of them except one. Would that single survivor be worth more than the price of admission? That would be a created rarity but would it be highly sought after??? The Holy Grail coin? Nah, it would probably just get lost, some farsighted person might vacuum it up, or it would end up in a museum.
The interesting question is what they are doing with the next set of releases.
Don't you think they will be released all at once? Maybe next year we'll see a gradual release, but it's so late in the year now for four coins each with four finishes....
The interesting question is what they are doing with the next set of releases.
Don't you think they will be released all at once? Maybe next year we'll see a gradual release, but it's so late in the year now for four coins each with four finishes....
The problem with these coins is the input from the State’s for their designs. Since this was scheduled late in the year it might be rough going to get the States input earlier for later coins unless they, the Mint, starts the process very soon (now?) for next years AIs.
@ReadyFireAim said:
I keep checking this thread for news of the 1st state release.
Eight pages of anticipation is enough.
I'm un-following dag-nab-it.
It wouldn't be in this thread, since this is the 2018 thread.
If these ever do come to market (I'm guessing they'll stagger the releases over a few weeks as not to overwhelm the Memphis facility) they should be in a 2019 Innobuck thread...
@Onastone said:
That was fast! Only available for about 20 seconds....... picked up 5 as well. USM069858xx
It was longer than that. I placed 5 orders
I couldn't get a second order through. How did you ever do 5 orders?
I'm quick, but not 20 seconds quick. LOL
I was kind of glad they sold out quickly. I was willing to buy several hundred. Once I found out I could only buy 5 at a time, I was wondering if I was going to have to sit there and place 40 or 50 orders. LOL
And by the way, what is the point of the 5 per order limit? I assume it is to prevent me from buying them all at once. But, on the other hand, it is forcing the Mint to send me 5 different boxes for free! (Loyalty program). If you're not going to give me a HHL, what is the point of just making it harder?
I also wonder what they did with bulk buyers. Could they only buy 5? Normally they can buy 5000 at a time.
@Onastone said:
That was fast! Only available for about 20 seconds....... picked up 5 as well. USM069858xx
It was longer than that. I placed 5 orders
I couldn't get a second order through. How did you ever do 5 orders?
I'm quick, but not 20 seconds quick. LOL
I was kind of glad they sold out quickly. I was willing to buy several hundred. Once I found out I could only buy 5 at a time, I was wondering if I was going to have to sit there and place 40 or 50 orders. LOL
And by the way, what is the point of the 5 per order limit? I assume it is to prevent me from buying them all at once. But, on the other hand, it is forcing the Mint to send me 5 different boxes for free! (Loyalty program). If you're not going to give me a HHL, what is the point of just making it harder?
I also wonder what they did with bulk buyers. Could they only buy 5? Normally they can buy 5000 at a time.
Okay, maybe it just seemed like 20 seconds, I did fumble around trying to put in 6, but then went to 5 as I didn't realize they had put in a 5 limit cap on it. By the time I tried to place a second order, it was gone again. That's okay, I'm happy with 5.
You're incredible!!! You managed to get off 5 orders!!!! I'm impressed! Lightening fingers!!
to buy several hundred. Once I found out I could only buy 5 at a time, I was wondering if I was going to have to sit there and place 40 or 50 orders. LOL
And by the way, what is the point of the 5 per order limit? I assume it is to prevent me from buying them all at once. But, on the other hand, it is forcing the Mint to send me 5 different boxes for free! (Loyalty program). If you're not going to give me a HHL, what is the point of just making it harder?
I also wonder what they did with bulk buyers. Could they only buy 5? Normally they can buy 5000 at a time.
Okay, maybe it just seemed like 20 seconds, I did fumble around trying to put in 6, but then went to 5 as I didn't realize they had put in a 5 limit cap on it. By the time I tried to place a second order, it was gone again. That's okay, I'm happy with 5.
You're incredible!!! You managed to get off 5 orders!!!! I'm impressed! Lightening fingers!!
The 1st order, I put in 99 and it switched it to 5. I assumed that meant there were only 5 available and just went ahead without trying to figure it out. On a whim, I went back to see if they were sold out but saw them still available. That confused me for a minute but I put in 99 again and then read the message that said there was a per order limit.
When I got to the 4th order, I started wondering if the 3500 or so that hadn't been sold were all available and began to try and decide how many I was willing to buy and how long it would take. LOL. On the 5th order, there were only 3 left and I could stop worrying!
By the way, my 1st order and last order were 22 numbers apart. The last order was definitely the last order as it was the last 3. So, assuming no more than a couple placed orders before me and assuming everyone bought 5, that's a maximum of about 125 units available this morning.
@Hemispherical said:
5 per order, maybe they were already pre-packed and this was a quick way to get them out the door?
Trying something new and we are all the guinea pigs.
You might have been right... But not really...
I had two orders, 5 proofs/5 RP's in one, 2 proofs/2 RP's in the other. I figured if I was going to add to my brown box collection, it might be nice to have both the proofs and RP's in one box.
Instead, I'm being sent four boxes. One with 5 proofs, one with 5 RP's, one with 2 proofs and one with 2 RP's. I'm sure that's more cost efficient, right? They all got shipped at the same time (within two minutes), so it had nothing to do with efficiency of pre-packing.
smh...
If I'd known they were going to do that, I wouldn't have ordered the proofs. Oh well. They were cheap. And at least they've left Southaven and are on a truck, even if that truck isn't going to move until Monday...
They were available briefly this morning. I squeezed in 3 more orders. I really don't know why. I've sold about a dozen, but they haven't been flying off the shelves. LOL. I just can't help myself! LOL
Well it seems that the TV person hawking stuff as if he is the only one that has these coins, made the statement the he bought the last 25,000 RP's and that he had plans to buy the rest of the Proofs the mint has, if you think about the fact he going to be selling these on 'Autoship' for years, he just might buy the rest, he will be needing them for years to come. And yes I'm one those people that looks in to see how of many misrepresentations he makes (I gotta have something to laugh about)
I do hate how he does his best to misrepresent the unknowing with his claims. ...just make sure you get the proofs you need or want before he does.
On BS&T Now: Nothing. Fighting the Fight for 11 Years with the big "C" - Never Ever Give Up! Member PCGS Open Forum board 2002 - 2006 (closed end of 2006) Current board since 2006 Successful trades with many members, over the past two decades, never a bad deal.
@jmlanzaf said:
They were available briefly this morning. I squeezed in 3 more orders. I really don't know why. I've sold about a dozen, but they haven't been flying off the shelves. LOL. I just can't help myself! LOL
With all the PRs that have been sold I think it’ll be a good gamble. I’m assuming most who bought the PR will want to complete the intro coins for the series.
@jmlanzaf said:
They were available briefly this morning. I squeezed in 3 more orders. I really don't know why. I've sold about a dozen, but they haven't been flying off the shelves. LOL. I just can't help myself! LOL
With all the PRs that have been sold I think it’ll be a good gamble. I’m assuming most who bought the PR will want to complete the intro coins for the series.
Glad there is a mintage limit in the RPs.
Yes. I'm sort of gambling that the release of the 2019 coins will gin up demand. At only $10 each, it's a minimal gamble.
Looking at the mint schedule, the last 21 items to be sold are all Innobucks. Maybe they will release them in small intervals? We've got four months left, it would be nice to release one design per month but I have this feeling it will be more of a Christmas thing.
@Onastone said:
Looking at the mint schedule, the last 21 items to be sold are all Innobucks. Maybe they will release them in small intervals? We've got four months left, it would be nice to release one design per month but I have this feeling it will be more of a Christmas thing.
Or, based on the 2018 RP coin, maybe they'll strike them all in December and still be releasing them in January.
Also, I'm not sure those are the "last 21 items". They haven't been scheduled yet. They could insert them anywhere in the calendar.
@Onastone said:
Looking at the mint schedule, the last 21 items to be sold are all Innobucks. Maybe they will release them in small intervals? We've got four months left, it would be nice to release one design per month but I have this feeling it will be more of a Christmas thing.
Well, the designs were just approved mid-August, so I assume it'll be at least a month before dies are created and distributed, and they begin stamping out the coins (and preparing the packaging), assuming no production problems. So the earliest we'll see them is the end of this quarter? (End Sept/Early Oct?) Maybe even mid-Oct.
The 2018 design was approved Early Oct, released for sale mid-December, so it was 2.5 months between selection and sales. The obverse is going to be common, so they don't have to revisit that.
I would assume they would stagger the releases (even if by a couple of weeks) just due to the logistics, but you never know. Since they released the RP this year, we could even see the 2019 coins bleed into 2020. (They will need to strike the coins in 2019. I wonder if they'll strike all the coins before they start the packaging and sales process...)
On the plus side, if they're really rushed to strike the coins, errors could be made...
(I've got a preliminary 2019 Innobuck thread ready to go, if they'd only release real images and for sale dates... Heh...)
Edit to add: I could start the 2019 thread now, since that's what we're talking about, and all the 2019 Innobuck web pages exist. Any preferences?
Comments
When you buy anything from the Mint, you are doing them a favor and supporting their cost structure. When the item is a non-precious metal, non-circulating coin - it may as well be a medal. There is no residual value for a 75,000 mintage item like this in 20 years. It's a very temporary "manufactured rarity".
With the never-ending proliferation of Mint varieties and finishes, and add to that all of TPG certification permutations, it simply becomes a paper-chase. Eventually, it grinds down most collectors and defeats the objectives of the Mint. Forcing collectors into smaller and smaller groups of specialty collecting doesn't promote the hobby, in my opinion. It promotes myopia and higher barriers to entry in each category or series - not a good thing for reaching out to larger crowds.
Neither does the production of manufactured rarities add to any allure. Rarity ought to be natural - this phenomena of manufactured rarity has too many layers - too many profit margins to satisfy - with too many hands reaching into collector pockets - a constant milking of the market by the Mint, the tpgs, and the flippers. For a $9.95 item that turns itself into a $35 proposition - it becomes a vexation.
end of rant
I knew it would happen.
I agree with some of this, but I think it is much more complex.
Actually, the Mint LOSES money on a lot of their commemorative coins and medals. They are simply mandated to make them by Congress.
You don't have a crystal ball. There could well be significant value for a 75,000 mintage item in 20 years. There's at least 75,000 S-VDB cents out there. Do I think it likely? No. But I also believe S-VDB cents will be dropping in value over 20 years. But my crystal ball isn't any better than yours.
You don't have to like NCLT or modern Mint products. You don't have to buy them. But I would suggest trying to be more open-minded about how they affect the hobby. Just because people collect differently doesn't mean they don't collect. There are a LOT of NCLT collectors out there.
I also wonder why you need specify "non-precious metal". That also indicates a personal bias. Why is the Palladium proof coins not another perfect example of NCLT hype? Just because it's palladium? I would buy a copper-nickel version of the Palladium coin because I like the design. I won't spend $2k to acquire the palladium version because I don't like it THAT much.
Let me throw this out there, because I think it could be true:
What if there are more American Silver Eagle collectors than Morgan dollar collectors? Are they wrong because they think ASE when you say "silver dollar"? Or, are they just different?
Why can't a collector choose to only collect Washington Quarters from 1965 to present? Why can't a collector choose to only collect proof coins? [Even 19th century proofs are manufactured rarities.]
I would also suggest that "manufactured rarity" isn't much different than "promoted popularity". A lot of coins with cachet have it because of the Max Mehl's of the world. Did people naturally become date/mintmark collectors or did the existence of date/mintmark albums make them think that was the best way to collect? Why are 1856 Flying Eagles so valuable when they are simply the most common patterns? Why does anyone want a 1913 Liberty Nickel when it likely was a completely fabricated coin?
You aren't wrong about the psychology here or a lot of the problems inherent in the hobby. But I'm not sure a not-so-limited mintage of 75,000 on one of THREE different finish Innovation $s is the canary in the coal mine.
As I say, I agree with a lot of what you say. But I also think that "classical collectors" are enemies of the hobby because they so easily dismiss people that are "collecting wrong".
My guess: $25 - $35 range. What's your guess?
In the near term, I think $20-25. You've got the first set of designs coming out - also in reverse proof - and there will be some buzz on these until exhaustion sets in on this NCLT set.
In the long run? Maybe $10. Maybe $5. I don't think this series of coins is going to fare any better than the State Quarters did 10 years later. Probably worse given that they aren't circulating coins and only hardcore collectors will even care.
Of course, it all depends on perspective. If I'm a flipper with 80 of these in stock, they are the next 1995-W Silver Eagle. If I'm a collector who missed the one-day window to order from the Mint, it's "oh crap, here we go again!"
The same phenomenon applies to Modern Bullion as to NCLT coinage, but at least bullion has a floor beneath it's price and a possible wind beneath it's sails, should the metals take off some day.
It's not that I don't like NCLT, because I've collected those series avidly from their inceptions. It's that it does get old, adding multiple profit margins on top of the Mint's pricing - on top of endless new varieties and finishes - all at multiple built-in premiums. I invest in precious metals issues and straight precious metal bullion. I also collect common coinage from circulation - in addition to nice Large Cents.
In some cases, I accept the built-in margins, such as in nice Large Cents. In other cases such as straight bullion, margin matters. My sensitivity to cost & margin depends on what the item may be. In my opinion, non-precious metal NCLT manufactured rarities don't warrant spending the money.
Occasionally, I cut back on the issues I collect - usually in response to Mint policy. I used to buy 15 proof Silver Eagles every year beginning in 1986 until Phillip Diehl decided to introduce his manufactured 1995-W rarity. I subsequently sold all but a few of that Silver Eagle accumulation. It just wasn't worth my loyalty, and I stopped buying Silver Eagles for collecting/speculating/investing purposes right then and there.
My point is that the Mint simply can't seem to help itself. I can't be the only one who sees this for what it is - a dilution of the market and abuse of the hobby. I do agree - collect what you like, speculate where you like, invest where you like. But I balk at being continually abused.
My guess: $25 - $35 range. What's your guess?
My guess is the same as yours. And declining steadily over time from there.
I knew it would happen.
As I said, I do agree with much of what you say.
I would also suggest that the flipper isn't who the "manufactured rarity" is aimed at. It's aimed at the collector. They need the collector to think that you can "win" on these commems so people keep buying them.
Have you checked the ebay sales lately? You are underestimating the popularity of some of the "small dollar" sets, from the Sacs to the Presidential ones.
The reason to get them out (sold) before then if one is a dealer. At the three month mark it’ll be slabs that some will want to keep their AI collection and/or registry up-to-date/competitive (if not sooner).
As long as the Mint is una then the only recourse for... everyone is third party sellers/dealers.
IMO
LT set.
I check eBay sales all the time. And, as someone who has a hard time selling most of the "small dollar sets" on eBay, I think my "underestimating" is actually pretty accurate. LOL
series of coins is going to fare any better than the State Quarters did 10 years later. Probably worse given that they aren't circulating coins and only hardcore collectors will even care.
This is more common than you think:
https://ebay.com/itm/2008-4-COIN-PRESIDENTIAL-1-PROOF-SET-ORIGINAL-OWNER-OUT-OF-A-SEALED-MINT-BOX/303250900911?hash=item469b2987af:g:-~MAAOSwZP9dULmO
I was too lazy to buy on the first day, perhaps subconsciously spooked by my bad experience buying the recent coin and currency set (defective notes). Anyway, when I got around to looking at the on day 2 they were unavailable.
I bought the proof version late last year but may well end collecting the series with that one coin since now I can't have a complete set (from the mint).
It is absurd that the Mint would allow a sell-out on a somewhat "normal" coin after only a day or two. The casual collector or the collector who was not online for a day or two will now miss out on the RP. It is bad enough that they crank out these endless collectables that only coin collectors buy, but now you have to be online on day 1 at high noon or you may miss out.
The mint would have soaked me for many hundreds of dollars over the life of this program, but if I cut the cord now they will end up with nothing from me.
On expected hot items I think the high relief St. Gaudens was a good model - mintage limited to a certain time period (one month). If it is instead going to be a set mintage it should be one that will last more than a day and a half. (In the case of this RP they could have accomplished that by not lifting the HHL so soon).
Again, I think you have to look at the bigger picture.
The Mint wants there to be a sense of urgency to buy, otherwise people will defer months or years. The Mint prefers a sell out, scrapping excess inventory creates a loss.
And what would you do with something like the Palladium coin? Mint 100k of them even though you can't sell more then 15k of them? Those sold out quickly with a HHL of 1.
And if there is no price increase ever in the secondary market, people just stop buying. Look at what happened to the number of annual proof sets and mint sets sold. You don't think that is unrelated to the lack of a secondary market for them, do you?
.
I understand that there is a bigger picture - probably many of them. However, for me, someone who might have been in for the entire series, the day and a half sell out is a huge disincentive to continue the series. There has to be a reasonable middle ground between an almost immediate sell out and a coin that languishes in the catalog for a year. When collectors get fed up and stop buying the entire coin hobby/market suffers.
As for the secondary market, I do not think the mint should build a business model around flippers and huge dealers. If the huge dealers can make money ordering thousands of sets and selling them over time, the mint can, too. Also, if collectors get fed up, then there will be no one to support the secondary market.
I've often wondered what would happen if a person/dealer bought an ENTIRE run of Mint coins. Monopoly? Looks like this may have somewhat happened. Perhaps there needs to be large order limits too.
ve to continue the series. There has to be a reasonable middle ground between an almost immediate sell out and a coin that languishes in the catalog for a year. When collectors get fed up and stop buying the entire coin hobby/market suffers.
I think you slightly miss my point. The Mint doesn't care about flippers or huge dealers. If you spend $1 million per year with them (or whatever the bulk minimum is now), they give you frigging 5% off - FIVE FRIGGING PERCENT! They are not good to their bulk buyers.
The price appreciation is meant to entice COLLECTORS not flippers. If the collector feels like they are sinking money in a sinking (price) ship, they stop buying.
I imagine the occasional lack of availability is also meant to entice subscriptions. Look at those engravings that essentially sold out to the subscribers.
That's the point of the HHL and the subscriptions. The Mint also has the ability to adjust orders down to prevent that.
I do not think that's what happened here. It is hard to separate first day sales from the total, but there were 15,000+ orders on the 1st day and 4,000ish in the first 45 minutes after noon. Now, those weren't all these sets, but I wouldn't be surprised if 40 or 50,000 sets were sold before the household limit was lifted.
I do think someone bought 10,000+ to finish buying them out
And then they melted all of them except one. Would that single survivor be worth more than the price of admission? That would be a created rarity but would it be highly sought after??? The Holy Grail coin? Nah, it would probably just get lost, some farsighted person might vacuum it up, or it would end up in a museum.
18GA
2018 AI $1 PROOF COIN
187655
08/18/2019
Over 2500 of the PRs sold since last week. I guess the RPs sparked some interest back into PRs and maybe they’ll go una. Here’s to hoping. 🍻
The RPs are una. @cagcrisp posted the numbers previously, somewhere above or previous page and since most will not go looking here’s a link:
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/comment/12403186/#Comment_12403186
The interesting question is what they are doing with the next set of releases.
Don't you think they will be released all at once? Maybe next year we'll see a gradual release, but it's so late in the year now for four coins each with four finishes....
I think they will. But is there a mintage limit?
The problem with these coins is the input from the State’s for their designs. Since this was scheduled late in the year it might be rough going to get the States input earlier for later coins unless they, the Mint, starts the process very soon (now?) for next years AIs.
I keep checking this thread for news of the 1st state release.
Eight pages of anticipation is enough.
I'm un-following dag-nab-it.
My Saint Set
They are still listed TBD on the Mint site.
It’ll be “fun-nee” if they are all released in December like the first intro AI coin.
Do a countdown to Christmas and release each State by finish and by rolls and bags so by the 25th they are all released.
It wouldn't be in this thread, since this is the 2018 thread.
If these ever do come to market (I'm guessing they'll stagger the releases over a few weeks as not to overwhelm the Memphis facility) they should be in a 2019 Innobuck thread...
Interestingly, there was a single order limit of 5 this morning.
That was quick.
Picked up a box of 5/5 (5 proof/5 RP), and 2/2 (for a possible brown box collections), then they were gone.
I don't know how many were available...
Edit to add:
USM069859xx and
USM069859xx, lol...
That was fast! Only available for about 20 seconds....... picked up 5 as well. USM069858xx
It was longer than that. I placed 5 orders
I couldn't get a second order through. How did you ever do 5 orders?
I'm quick, but not 20 seconds quick. LOL
I was kind of glad they sold out quickly. I was willing to buy several hundred. Once I found out I could only buy 5 at a time, I was wondering if I was going to have to sit there and place 40 or 50 orders. LOL
And by the way, what is the point of the 5 per order limit? I assume it is to prevent me from buying them all at once. But, on the other hand, it is forcing the Mint to send me 5 different boxes for free! (Loyalty program). If you're not going to give me a HHL, what is the point of just making it harder?
I also wonder what they did with bulk buyers. Could they only buy 5? Normally they can buy 5000 at a time.
Okay, maybe it just seemed like 20 seconds, I did fumble around trying to put in 6, but then went to 5 as I didn't realize they had put in a 5 limit cap on it. By the time I tried to place a second order, it was gone again. That's okay, I'm happy with 5.
You're incredible!!! You managed to get off 5 orders!!!! I'm impressed! Lightening fingers!!
5 per order, maybe they were already pre-packed and this was a quick way to get them out the door?
Trying something new and we are all the guinea pigs.
to buy several hundred. Once I found out I could only buy 5 at a time, I was wondering if I was going to have to sit there and place 40 or 50 orders. LOL
The 1st order, I put in 99 and it switched it to 5. I assumed that meant there were only 5 available and just went ahead without trying to figure it out. On a whim, I went back to see if they were sold out but saw them still available. That confused me for a minute but I put in 99 again and then read the message that said there was a per order limit.
When I got to the 4th order, I started wondering if the 3500 or so that hadn't been sold were all available and began to try and decide how many I was willing to buy and how long it would take. LOL. On the 5th order, there were only 3 left and I could stop worrying!
By the way, my 1st order and last order were 22 numbers apart. The last order was definitely the last order as it was the last 3. So, assuming no more than a couple placed orders before me and assuming everyone bought 5, that's a maximum of about 125 units available this morning.
So, there's still possibly 3000+ to go!
Vert short this AM.
I was able to get one order in. Anyone else?
I took a look. Never said anything but currently unavailable.
Literally only available for 30 seconds.
You might have been right... But not really...
I had two orders, 5 proofs/5 RP's in one, 2 proofs/2 RP's in the other. I figured if I was going to add to my brown box collection, it might be nice to have both the proofs and RP's in one box.
Instead, I'm being sent four boxes. One with 5 proofs, one with 5 RP's, one with 2 proofs and one with 2 RP's. I'm sure that's more cost efficient, right?
They all got shipped at the same time (within two minutes), so it had nothing to do with efficiency of pre-packing.
smh...
If I'd known they were going to do that, I wouldn't have ordered the proofs. Oh well. They were cheap.
And at least they've left Southaven and are on a truck, even if that truck isn't going to move until Monday...
18GE 2018 AI $1 REV PRF COIN 72,711 + 1,527
They were available briefly this morning. I squeezed in 3 more orders. I really don't know why. I've sold about a dozen, but they haven't been flying off the shelves. LOL. I just can't help myself! LOL
Well it seems that the TV person hawking stuff as if he is the only one that has these coins, made the statement the he bought the last 25,000 RP's and that he had plans to buy the rest of the Proofs the mint has, if you think about the fact he going to be selling these on 'Autoship' for years, he just might buy the rest, he will be needing them for years to come. And yes I'm one those people that looks in to see how of many misrepresentations he makes (I gotta have something to laugh about)
I do hate how he does his best to misrepresent the unknowing with his claims. ...just make sure you get the proofs you need or want before he does.
Fighting the Fight for 11 Years with the big "C" - Never Ever Give Up!
Member PCGS Open Forum board 2002 - 2006 (closed end of 2006) Current board since 2006 Successful trades with many members, over the past two decades, never a bad deal.
With all the PRs that have been sold I think it’ll be a good gamble. I’m assuming most who bought the PR will want to complete the intro coins for the series.
Glad there is a mintage limit in the RPs.
Yes. I'm sort of gambling that the release of the 2019 coins will gin up demand. At only $10 each, it's a minimal gamble.
Sometimes ya wins, sometimes you lose
Looking at the mint schedule, the last 21 items to be sold are all Innobucks. Maybe they will release them in small intervals? We've got four months left, it would be nice to release one design per month but I have this feeling it will be more of a Christmas thing.
Or, based on the 2018 RP coin, maybe they'll strike them all in December and still be releasing them in January.
Also, I'm not sure those are the "last 21 items". They haven't been scheduled yet. They could insert them anywhere in the calendar.
Well, the designs were just approved mid-August, so I assume it'll be at least a month before dies are created and distributed, and they begin stamping out the coins (and preparing the packaging), assuming no production problems. So the earliest we'll see them is the end of this quarter? (End Sept/Early Oct?) Maybe even mid-Oct.
The 2018 design was approved Early Oct, released for sale mid-December, so it was 2.5 months between selection and sales. The obverse is going to be common, so they don't have to revisit that.
I would assume they would stagger the releases (even if by a couple of weeks) just due to the logistics, but you never know. Since they released the RP this year, we could even see the 2019 coins bleed into 2020. (They will need to strike the coins in 2019. I wonder if they'll strike all the coins before they start the packaging and sales process...)
On the plus side, if they're really rushed to strike the coins, errors could be made...
(I've got a preliminary 2019 Innobuck thread ready to go, if they'd only release real images and for sale dates... Heh...)
Edit to add: I could start the 2019 thread now, since that's what we're talking about, and all the 2019 Innobuck web pages exist. Any preferences?