"Lack of fresh material available in the market" - When....................

SanctionII · April 16, 2011 5:21AM

..................... has it been that:

1. this statement is true?; and

2. this statement has not been true?

Since getting back into the hobby as an adult in 1998, I have heard and read this statement made many, many times.

I read it today in a forum thread about a dealer market report. Market reports by Legend, ditto. Coin publications, ditto.

Since 1998 has there ever been a time [year, season, month, etc.] when "Fresh material" has been coming out of the woodwork and is everywhere?

Or has there been a non stop 13 year, uninterrupted market where there has been a lack of "fresh material".

When I go to shops and shows I usually find coins that I am interested in and that I purchase. To me these coins are "fresh".

So what is the definition of "fresh material?

Your thoughts please.

Elcontador · April 16, 2011 5:27AM

I think it depends on what you are looking for. I never had a problem finding nice 19th Century type (Seated and later, except for the $s which are too pricey for me in that grade) in MS or PF 66 ( the Barber Half being a major exception).

However, it took me eight years to find a problem free original Heraldic Eagle Bust $ in AU.

MidLifeCrisis · April 16, 2011 5:29AM

"Fresh material" is a euphemism for "a coin I can sell quickly and easily for a lot of money".

I think fresh material comes on the market pretty regularly.

Some define fresh as a coin that hasn't been on the market in at least 5 years....or hasn't been posted repeatedly and discussed on this forum.

RWB · April 16, 2011 5:34AM

The statement is always true depending on your perspective.

Walkerguy21D · April 16, 2011 5:37AM

Good question to pose.....IMO this is a dealer situation, and not necessarily a 'market' situation. I think there are a lot less collections walking into B&M stores or into shows than there used to be. I do know that there are lot more auctions and of course coins selling on Ebay, so there are a lot more venues for sellers than when I started collecting seriously back in the mid-80's. And the average quality of coins found on the bourse now is a lot lower. Yes, there are still lots of BU Morgan dollars, like always, but you don't see the toned seated coinage, early large cents, better grade bust material, and early walkers in XF-AU anymore.

savoyspecial · April 16, 2011 5:37AM

the problem has always been that when there is an influx of 'fresh material' (think Ford Sale for instance) it is quickly gobbled up by end-user collectors with strong hands that will hold for another 20-30 years

Sonorandesertrat · April 16, 2011 5:42AM

'Fresh material' is a marketing term that is frequently used to entice a collector into making a purchase. It's a way of telling a customer that a particular coin hasn't been through the auction or dealer-dealer circuits umpteen times lately. For most collectors, I think that this is irrelevant. The issue should be the coin, not where it's been lately.

RYK · April 16, 2011 6:07AM

Since 1998 has there ever been a time [year, season, month, etc.] when "Fresh material" has been coming out of the woodwork and is everywhere?

As an example, in the Bass sales of 1999-2000, fresh US gold material was indeed coming out of the woodwork. Same for the Ford sales, for colonial coins, medals, currency, and exonumia.

keets · April 16, 2011 6:25AM

it seems that from around the turn of the Century till 2005-6 there was a steady stream of "fresh material" in the form of large collections, small groups or even individual items being made available in pretty much every facet of the Hobby from Colonials through mainstream U.S. coins and into Exonumia where i tread lightly. however, i agree with MidLifeCrises' tongue-in-cheek summation(how's that for a lawyer-ly word?) that whenever dealers have a slowdown in their flow of profitable coins we hear about the "Lack of fresh material available in the market..................." in one form or another. if anything, i just have a difficult time finding what i want at an affordable price---------------all the time!!! sometimes i pass and sometimes i pony-up. there always seems to be coins and medals that interest me while at the same time there always seems to be the same old stuff that i've been seeing for years.

bidask · April 16, 2011 6:26AM

<< ..................... has it been that:

1. this statement is true?; and

2. this statement has not been true?

Since getting back into the hobby as an adult in 1998, I have heard and read this statement made many, many times.

I read it today in a forum thread about a dealer market report. Market reports by Legend, ditto. Coin publications, ditto.

Since 1998 has there ever been a time [year, season, month, etc.] when "Fresh material" has been coming out of the woodwork and is everywhere?

Or has there been a non stop 13 year, uninterrupted market where there has been a lack of "fresh material".

When I go to shops and shows I usually find coins that I am interested in and that I purchase. To me these coins are "fresh".

So what is the definition of "fresh material?

Your thoughts please. >>

Since you are referring to Legend, I think the question of availabilty of fresh coins is in the areas they deal in, yes?

Do you readily find those at B&M and shows?

BillJones · April 16, 2011 6:28AM

It all depends up what you want to buy. If you are looking for bullion coins, you can buy all you want. If you are looking for nice early gold, it's a problem.

Three or so years ago NICE 1796 No Stars quarter eagles were generally available for a price. I even had one dealer tell me that it was an over rated coin because there seemed to be so many decent ones on the market. Now what is offered is over graded, and often has problems that are ignored on the grading holder.

Of late I've seen a number 1848 CAL. quarter eagles in auctions. Is the coin that common, or is it just going through a cycle? Maybe a couple of years from the now the current supply will be dried up.

I think that those with “strong hands” see no reason to sell their really nice material because of mid range concerns about the value of the dollar and inflation. For that reason we have seen situations where there is not a lot of good material at the shows or the auctions.

TwoSides2aCoin · April 16, 2011 6:32AM

I sold some fresh material. It was stale when I bought it, though.

coindeuce · April 16, 2011 6:43AM

I've always considered the vernacular to be used by those who act as if they are entitled to have "monster PQ gem" quality material fall in to their lap, whomever they may be or wherever they may frequent. I've never had that happen, and I don't expect it to start happening. Finding fresh material takes a lot of hard work and constant communication, and often requires huge expenditures for advertising. There are no substitutes for pounding pavement and shaking bushes.

Coinosaurus · April 16, 2011 6:46AM

Jim O'Donnell had the best response for people complaining that there were no good coins to buy. "You are not working hard enough," he said. He was right, too. You can always cruise ebay more, go to more coin shows, build your collector/dealer network, whatever it takes. The coins are clearly out there, it is just a matter of working hard enough and smart enough to pry them out. Expecting continuous big auctions where stuff goes cheap ain't gonna happen........you may get lucky occassionally but it takes more than that.

ecichlid · April 16, 2011 6:46AM

"Lack of fresh material"= Marketing BS. Meaning - our prices may look high but they are not.

keets · April 16, 2011 6:50AM

Of late I've seen a number 1848 CAL. quarter eagles in auctions. Is the coin that common, or is it just going through a cycle? Maybe a couple of years from the now the current supply will be dried up.

i think it's a combination of things. to use the 1848 Cal. as an example, you were probably focused on that coin so you were more aware of it. i know whenever i was actively search for a specific item i become keenly aware of its availability or lack thereof as well as the condition of what's being offered; conversely, when i quit looking for any long period and become disconnected it can seem like there are no coins around. besides, a coin like that 1848 Cal. is never really going to be "readily available" in great numbers, probably no more than several coins over any one extended timeframe.......................unless of course there are a few well known sales which causes owners to sell. i'm sure you know what i'm talking about, it happens as a matter of routine.

i believe in cycles as you mentioned and i also believe that the supply never "dries up" as you said. experience has taught me that when coins are selling for enough money everything is on the cusp of being available. that's what happened during the early part of the Century, prices were high and everything was for sale as collectors lived large.

DaveE · April 16, 2011 6:53AM

I agree with completely with Legend about a lack of coins.

They work harder than any one to find the great coins and Laura always tell me she never can buy enough to fill demand. I have seen this.

Try finding GEM Morgans, I mean real GEM Morgans, price does not matter. You can't. You'd figure they would be around. The stuff othere is retreaded junk.

keets · April 16, 2011 6:56AM

if i wanted to find really Gem Morgans, was willing to pay for them and had the buyers, i'd spend time here and be actively using the PM function. what we see pictured is only the tip of the iceberg.

ricko · April 16, 2011 7:23AM

It is all a matter of perspective.... collectors, dealers, etc have different perspectives on what 'fresh' means. And, like all euphemisms, it tends to get overused. Cheers, RickO

Shamika · April 16, 2011 7:47AM

SanctionII, I'm with you. I've been quite active since 1998 and I hear this statement made all the time. As ecichlid stated, it's marketing BS. If there was a constant stream of fresh material, coins would be rare and/or in demand.

BillJones · April 16, 2011 8:04AM

<< Of late I've seen a number 1848 CAL. quarter eagles in auctions. Is the coin that common, or is it just going through a cycle? Maybe a couple of years from the now the current supply will be dried up.

i think it's a combination of things. to use the 1848 Cal. as an example, you were probably focused on that coin so you were more aware of it. i know whenever i was actively search for a specific item i become keenly aware of its availability or lack thereof as well as the condition of what's being offered; conversely, when i quit looking for any long period and become disconnected it can seem like there are no coins around. besides, a coin like that 1848 Cal. is never really going to be "readily available" in great numbers, probably no more than several coins over any one extended timeframe.......................unless of course there are a few well known sales which causes owners to sell. i'm sure you know what i'm talking about, it happens as a matter of routine.

i believe in cycles as you mentioned and i also believe that the supply never "dries up" as you said. experience has taught me that when coins are selling for enough money everything is on the cusp of being available. that's what happened during the early part of the Century, prices were high and everything was for sale as collectors lived large. >>

Since and including the August ANA sale up until now, Heritage has auctioned seven different 1848 CAL. $2.50 coins. I was not really looking for the coin until I saw the three pieces in the January FUN auction. I ended up buying none of them. I did buy one at the Baltimore show that was one of the three Heritage sold in August. Now there is another one at the Central States Platnum Night auction. If you look at the archieves Heritage had sold the coin 34 times since 1995. The one at the end of this month will be #35. Seven in less than a year is a bit ahead of the usual pace.

Of course some of the 35 sales could be repeats of coins that are either offered in their original holders or got crossed. For example I spotted another issue of a gold coin that was sold in an NGC holder in October that is now in a PCGS holder (same grade with a CAC sticker) that will be sold at the end of the month.

Back in the 1970s there was a string of 1796 Proof-like quarters that kept showing up at one major auciton after another. They were different and the "standard" selling price seemed to be $15,000. Today one would be hard pressed to see one P-L 1796 Quarter in a year. Sometimes things do see to go in cycles.

DaveE · April 16, 2011 8:05AM

Ok, go onthe BST and find me 100 PCGS MS66 Morgans, a dozen better date PCGS DMPL's in 64 and higher, hey does any one on the BST have a 93S PCGS MS64?? I can make the list longer.

What ridiculous comments are being posted here. There definately is a lack of coins. The demand does indeed far out strip the supply.

I just want one non 80S PCGS MS66 DMPL cameoed Morgan. have not seen any in ayear. I should not have had to be waiting this long.

mrpotatoheadd · April 16, 2011 8:12AM

I don't understand the fascination of coins that have been in collections for a long time. Do people suppose there were no dogs on the market back when those old-time collections were assembled, or what?

Just because a coin hasn't been put up for sale for 30 years, is no indication of the quality of the coin, is it?

BillJones · April 16, 2011 8:16AM

<< Ok, go onthe BST and find me 100 PCGS MS66 Morgans, a dozen better date PCGS DMPL's in 64 and higher, hey does any one on the BST have a 93S PCGS MS64?? I can make the list longer.

What ridiculous comments are being posted here. There definately is a lack of coins. The demand does indeed far out strip the supply.

I just want one non 80S PCGS MS66 DMPL cameoed Morgan. have not seen any in ayear. I should not have had to be waiting this long. >>

Have you checked "The Collectors' Corner" which is a link off of Coin Facts? Maybe you will find something here ... I've used this service to my advantage a few times since I signed up for Coin Facts.

1880-S DMPL Dollars

roadrunner · April 16, 2011 8:17AM

The word "fresh" as used by many leading dealers also seems to go hand-in-hand with "buyable." If it's really neat, but really high-priced, it ain't fresh....because they can't buy it.
The issue is always buying enough nice coins.....at low enough prices to make good money at it. Another way to look at "fresh" is that it's been off the market long enough where the
seller may not be aware of what they are worth today. I've been in that situation on some coins off the market for almost 20 yrs. There's really no way to know the price until they
trade...sometimes multiple times once they pop up.

I had one transaction with a major retailer where I had sold them a pair of rare and top pop MS66 seated halves. The coins had been off the market for 5 yrs and had pedigrees
to two of the finest seated sets ever assembled. But when the dealer later understood that they had not been off the market for >10 yrs (ie two owners since the last auction appearance 10 yrs earlier) they wanted the transaction canceled and their check returned. It was most odd. The coins were fresh enough for anyone but the dealer insisted that even though they just loved the quality, they were no longer "fresh" enough for them. Ever since that time I've had a problem with the word "fresh." It means whatever a person wants it to mean to gain an advantage in a transaction.

roadrunner

bidask · April 16, 2011 8:18AM

<< I don't understand the fascination of coins that have been in collections for a long time. Do people suppose there were no dogs on the market back when those old-time collections were assembled, or what?

Just because a coin hasn't been put up for sale for 30 years, is no indication of the quality of the coin, is it? >>

I definitely think there was more quality to choose from 30 years ago.....

BillJones · April 16, 2011 8:18AM

<< I don't understand the fascination of coins that have been in collections for a long time. Do people suppose there were no dogs on the market back when those old-time collections were assembled, or what?

Just because a coin hasn't been put up for sale for 30 years, is no indication of the quality of the coin, is it? >>

No, 30 years off the market is not guarantee that the coin is nice, but from my experience dogs tend to be traded more often over a period of time than nicer material.

keets · April 16, 2011 8:25AM

Dave, all i was saying is that there are a lot of nice coins shown here and this place is a drop in the Numismatic bucket. i'd go to the BST for you, but i don't have an interest in those coins so you'll have to figure out how to find them yourself(besides, i wouldn't want to cheat you out of the pleasure of the search). i know this much, there are collectors here who have what you want, you just need to find them and pry the coins loose. money talks, so speak up.

roadrunner · April 16, 2011 8:28AM

In choice to gem unc bust, barber, and seated, there was hardly anything that showed up 30 yrs ago. It took 5-10 yrs of slabdom to start to pulling those coins free from the owner's
clutches. The 1970's had a few good auctions in my areas, but you usually had to weed through a lot of semi-cleaned and rubbed coins to find a real choice to gem unc. Even a major
collection like the James Stack quarters and halves in 1975 had quite a few less than quality coins. But it was the top 20% of the offerings that were knockouts. If you went just by
the catalog description odds were about 50% or less that you got the coin you were after. The entire landscape of high end seated coins was changed in the late 1980's to date.

One is assuming that the buyer knows how to tell a great coin that has been off the market for 30 yrs. True, it matters little if the coin stinks. I have a cleaned XF 1877-cc dime that
has been with me since 1968....over 40 yrs off the market. The coin still stinks. I just have it for personal reasons. These days, its sort of unusual to find great coins that have been
off the market since the 1970's. Many of those went to auction in 1980 or 1989 or even 2004-2008.

roadrunner

questor54 · April 16, 2011 8:38AM

<< The word "fresh" as used by many leading dealers also seems to go hand-in-hand with "buyable." If it's really neat, but really high-priced, it ain't fresh....because they can't buy it.
The issue is always buying enough nice coins.....at low enough prices to make good money at it. Another way to look at "fresh" is that it's been off the market long enough where the
seller may not be aware of what they are worth today. I've been in that situation on some coins off the market for almost 20 yrs. There's really no way to know the price until they
trade...sometimes multiple times once they pop up.

I had one transaction with a major retailer where I had sold them a pair of rare and top pop MS66 seated halves. The coins had been off the market for 5 yrs and had pedigrees
to two of the finest seated sets ever assembled. But when the dealer later understood that they had not been off the market for >10 yrs (ie two owners since the last auction appearance 10 yrs earlier) they wanted the transaction canceled and their check returned. It was most odd. The coins were fresh enough for anyone but the dealer insisted that even though they just loved the quality, they were no longer "fresh" enough for them. Ever since that time I've had a problem with the word "fresh." It means whatever a person wants it to mean to gain an advantage in a transaction.

roadrunner >>

That is just nuts. Buy the coin, not the freshness.

mrpotatoheadd · April 16, 2011 8:40AM

<< No, 30 years off the market is not guarantee that the coin is nice, but from my experience dogs tend to be traded more often over a period of time than nicer material. >>

Fair enough. But if what you (in general- not directed at any specific poster) want is nicer material, what's wrong with just saying that? What's "fresh" got to do with it? I mean- would you (again, in general) prefer to buy a marginal quality coin that's fresh over a gem that's been through three auctions in two years?

edited to add... I'll tell you what *I* think "fresh" has to do with- lots of people are convinced that if a coin has already been offered to others and it hasn't been purchased (or recently has been and is back on the market, for that matter), there's something wrong with it.

golfer72 · April 16, 2011 8:44AM

There are plenty of Gem Morgans avaialble out there. If it says 65 on the label its a gem.

keets · April 16, 2011 9:52AM

Try finding GEM Morgans, I mean real GEM Morgans
------go onthe BST and find me 100 PCGS MS66 Morgans, a dozen better date PCGS DMPL's in 64 and higher, hey does any one on the BST have a 93S PCGS MS64

There are plenty of Gem Morgans avaialble out there. If it says 65 on the label its a gem.

well, at least someone else is paying attention as the gears shift.

BillJones · April 17, 2011 10:35PM

The term "fresh" refers to coins that have just come on the market with an implication that they are nice for the grade. Dealers and collectors who follow the show circuit are well aware that there are coins that languish in the same dealer’s case for months, and there are coins that might get traded from dealer’s inventory to another without going to an ultimate retail customer. Such coins become in a sense “shop worn” for dealers because they have already seen them before, and for whatever reason of insufficient interest for most dealers to buy them. After you have seen the same coins for a while, spotting a new, “fresh” face can be exciting or at least of something more than passing interest.

RedTiger · April 18, 2011 12:09AM

<< ... I'll tell you what *I* think "fresh" has to do with- lots of people are convinced that if a coin has already been offered to others and it hasn't been purchased (or recently has been and is back on the market, for that matter), there's something wrong with it. >>

While you have a point, what you write above is probably true. Good material sells quickly at the proper price. Great material sells in an eye-blink. A person can look at any venue, websites, BST, a coin show. A nice coin listed at a competitive price moves quickly. A great coin at the same price sells within minutes. If a particular coin hasn't moved after 100 or a 1000, or some number of collectors that can afford it and collect that kind of material, have looked at it, odds are either the price is a bit steep, or the quality isn't all there for that given asking price. Might be nothing "wrong" with the coin, but the price/quality equation is not computing for all the potential buyers. If a coin last an entire show, two shows, then five shows or ten shows, the coin becomes the opposite of fresh. Some dealers will blow those coins out after a while, either to another dealer, or with a discount. Other dealers tend to keep most all their coins and keep adding on to their stock and may keep the coin for many years, and never discount it.

That's where stale material comes in. Collectors generally dislike stale material. If a collector walks up to a dealer case and 90% of the coins are retreads from the show four months ago, they are going to have little interest. That's one reason I only tend to go once a year to Long Beach, if I go every time, many of the coins I remember seeing last time. Now, if 90% of the material is different than the last time they visited, they will perk up and take a close look. That's human nature, that's game theory, heck, that's common sense.

ColonelJessup · April 18, 2011 2:00AM

<< Ok, go onthe BST and find me 100 PCGS MS66 Morgans, a dozen better date PCGS DMPL's in 64 and higher, hey does any one on the BST have a 93S PCGS MS64?? I can make the list longer.

What ridiculous comments are being posted here. There definately is a lack of coins. The demand does indeed far out strip the supply.

I just want one non 80S PCGS MS66 DMPL cameoed Morgan. have not seen any in ayear. I should not have had to be waiting this long. >>

100 PCGS MS66 Morgans may not be available on the BST, so call PCGS Board of Experts member John Love. Betcha you can fill in 2 weeks or less. And didn't you just say it was time to get out of Morgans?

My recollection may be off, but wasn't the last available MS64 93-S from Richmond? NGC MS64 bought by forum member MS68 and crossed.

"Fresh material" - Dave Berg used to have an employee show double row boxes of coins at shows. On the top of each box, in big bold dark letters were the words "FIRST SHOT". Perhaps SWSNBN or some other dealer might think "freshness" means first shot..

Sort of embarrassing when touting one's company as the #1 buyer on the planet and then having one's customer find out that even one other person has been offered it.

Re: roadrunner's "freshness" scenario. Perhaps the dealer who reneged (second worst word in the dealer lexicon, and then NSF isn't a word) should have asked for them on short-term memo or asked for a close buyback. If the seller's purposes necessitated a sale that week this would not be to the seller's advantage, so a flat-out sale was the goal.

Sometimes "I need to call my customer first. Can you put it on hold for a few hours....." can be worked out. If the customer's yacht has a good satellite link-up this is a workable possibility, but sometimes, like when caught up in a bridge game vs. Warren and Bill, .. well, to paraphrase that famous expression created by Forrest Gump, "feces occurs".

Myself, I would have put the check in Monday AM and told the dealer to pound sand.

A little less solipsism can go a long way.

ColonelJessup · April 18, 2011 2:41AM

<< I don't understand the fascination of coins that have been in collections for a long time. Do people suppose there were no dogs on the market back when those old-time collections were assembled, or what?

Just because a coin hasn't been put up for sale for 30 years, is no indication of the quality of the coin, is it? >>

"Old- time" collections have quite a few virtues.

Perhaps the most important:

Having been assembled a long time ago when microscopic differences in quality did not create humongous premiums and grading skills had less reason to become as refined as they are today, many more choice to gem coins were bought for very modest premiums. I can't count the number of truly great hits I bought out of Stacks' counter displays and stock boxes up until about 10 years ago. From their auctions? A feast!

And of course these "fresh collections" had not been subjected to the advanced skills of the Coin Cosmetologists Collective.

speety · April 18, 2011 3:00AM

One of the first quotes I can remember from here was TDN telling me that often it's about "Having the opportunity, not necessarily the money".

If you keep your eyes open there are some nice coins out there - but you may have to work hard to find them and be willing to pay up to get them.

Also, the qoute means completely different things to different people. If I'm a dealer I need to pull in a lot more coins then if I'm a collector. I'm happy adding 5 coins a year to the set, if a dealer only found 5 coins a year they'd be toast, and quick!

PerryHall · April 18, 2011 3:06AM

<< And of course these "fresh collections" had not been subjected to the advanced skills of the Coin Cosmetologists Collective. >>

Collectors and dealers have been screwing around with coins for at least 150 years or more. For example, J. Sanford Saltus accidentally poisoned himself to death while dipping some large cents in cyanide in 1922.

ColonelJessup · April 18, 2011 7:56AM

<< 

<< And of course these "fresh collections" had not been subjected to the advanced skills of the Coin Cosmetologists Collective. >>

Collectors and dealers have been screwing around with coins for at least 150 years or more. For example, J. Sanford Saltus accidentally poisoned himself to death while dipping some large cents in cyanide in 1922. >>

No doubt for longer than that, but as premiums for quality have widened due to TPG grading and demand for higher level items, the application of scientific principles and the advances in technology have combined to create a situation where it is much more rewarding than it ever was before.

The key word in my staterment is advanced

"Lack of fresh material available in the market" - When....................

Comments

Leave a Comment

&quot;Lack of fresh material available in the market&quot; - When....................

Comments

Leave a Comment

"Lack of fresh material available in the market" - When....................