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Stewart Blay Was Right. It was a bloodbath
CalGold
Posts: 2,609 ✭✭
Hear that splashing sound? It’s the cleaning crew mopping the blood off the auction room floor.
Slaughtered in pretty much every category. Losses in this sale had to total in the millions. 1804 dollar, 1876-cc 20 cent, two 1794 $1, and a 1795 MS65 $1 from the Cardinal collection sold at a loss. The losses on those 1794 and 1795 dollars alone were in the range of $500K.
The optimist view: “Had the money been invested it stocks instead, it would have been lost anyway.”
CG
Slaughtered in pretty much every category. Losses in this sale had to total in the millions. 1804 dollar, 1876-cc 20 cent, two 1794 $1, and a 1795 MS65 $1 from the Cardinal collection sold at a loss. The losses on those 1794 and 1795 dollars alone were in the range of $500K.
The optimist view: “Had the money been invested it stocks instead, it would have been lost anyway.”
CG
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Comments
<< <i>Makes me wish I had about $10 Million to take to the auction floor. >>
I wish I had $10 million. Period.
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<< <i>so the legend market report will not be "red hot nuclear white fury"? >>
The Legend report will indeed be: "red hot nucular wite furry!"
(sorry)
<< <i>so the legend market report will not be "red hot nuclear white fury"? >>
To Laura's credit her market reports have been saying for months that the market is off 20% for top material and down way more for anythng less than top notch.
And it is true that much of what was sold had been purchased at aggressive prices at the peak of the market.
CG
<< <i>
<< <i>Makes me wish I had about $10 Million to take to the auction floor. >>
I wish I had $10 million. Period. >>
True,true. But it seems like $10 million could have gotten you a lot more tonight than it probably will in the next 5-10 years if the economy recovers.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
K
I wonder if a lot of New Yorkers like myself, did not enter bids because of the 8% tax now being collected by Heritage. I sure would have liked to own that 1804 dollar.
<< <i>Honestly, it was much better than I expected. And the losses were more on the buy side than the sale, IMO. >>
TDN,
Im not quite sure I follow. Could you please explain?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Honestly, it was much better than I expected. And the losses were more on the buy side than the sale, IMO. >>
TDN,
Im not quite sure I follow. Could you please explain? >>
I suspect he means that the consignors paid more than market prices in the first place, rather than getting below market prices last night.
<< <i>Im not quite sure I follow. Could you please explain? >>
The seller paid too much when he/she bought the coin originally.
You can't just throw price history out the window and pay whatever and not expect to take a loss if you sell in just a few years.
I commented at the time that I thought 1870-S $1 was a bargain when it sold subsequent to the Jack Lee sale several years ago [around $400k]. So the consignor made money at this sale even though the price realized [$500k+] was very weak compared to recent prices realized [$700k+]. The gain was made on the buy side, not the sell side.
I know the price paid for a couple of the classic rarities was quite high at the time - enough out of line that I remember commenting to Laura "that coin sold for what???" The prices realized for those two coins last night were strong for current market conditions, so the fact that the consignor lost money was due to the purchase price, not the sale price.
In order for prices to move higher, one has to pay more than the previous owner. This stops when psychology changes and one is no longer willing to set a higher price. This holds true in any market.
Someone always sets the top and when prices fall, that doesnt make a loss any less important or undesirable. If someone paid "too much" originally, then he has set the top.
Perhaps you are saying the previous seller timed the market perfectly to take advantage of the greater fool?
Edited to add.....I typed my response before you added the example, so my comments may not make sense
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I think it was great for collectors to snag some " widget " Lincolns for a song, SVDB's, 55DDO's etc. Nothing really grabbed me and said MUST BUY.
Some of the PCGS Mercury dimes suddenly sold at record prices. Not all of them were of the top pop variety.
But then again, mercury dimes did not participate in this last bull run after 2002.
Contrarian play?
The nice AU Bust $s went for strong money. Sure, the mediocre ones graaded AU 50-55 went for between $6,500 and $7,500. Dealers were asking between $8 and $10 K for them a year or two ago, but only someone who didn't know how to grade would have bought these coins.
I imagine the PC 6 Liberty Nickels went cheaply (don't know about the 85, that one was out of my league so I didn't pay attention to it). But I didn't like any of them, they all were from "how did this p.o.s. get into that holder" to being so-so for the grade.
For the last few years, dealers were able to write their own ticket re selling coins, and more often than not, some pendejo would ante up for the coin for whatever reason. Those days are gone. Crappy coins for the grade will sell for discounts. Nothing new under the sun.
Esoteric coins for which there is thin demand I am guessing will also sell for discounts. Perhaps if you collect them (2 Cent Pieces, the 3 Centers, Half Dimes, etc.), you might be able to get a genuinely nice coin more cheaply than before. I'd like to get some feedback about this.
All this showed is that if you stretched for a coin which was not extremely scarce, not really nice for the grade, not in high demand, or a combination thereof in the last few years, if you sell it now, you will lose money. This was bound to happen sooner or later.
If you want to buy a clearly overgraded old copper, or an MS 66 with an active, eye catching spot of PVC cheaply, they are readily available.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Some will be simple bruises while others will be carotid gushers.
The name is LEE!
CG
Registry fatigue is also a factor. That aspect may be more worrisome than the market itself.
The causes is more complex than a broad paintstroke.
<< <i>Esoteric coins for which there is thin demand I am guessing will also sell for discounts. Perhaps if you collect them (2 Cent Pieces, the 3 Centers, Half Dimes, etc.), you might be able to get a genuinely nice coin more cheaply than before. I'd like to get some feedback about this. >>
Among other things, I collect proof 3CS, 3CN, and half dimes. Prices on 3CN have fallen back to 2007 levels. 3CS have not fallen. Half dimes show some softness in 64 and above.
<< <i>I wonder if a lot of New Yorkers like myself, did not enter bids because of the 8% tax now being collected by Heritage. I sure would have liked to own that 1804 dollar.
Buy in Illinois! No sales tax here!!!
<< <i>Buy in Illinois! No sales tax here!!! >>
We don't have sales tax on coins; however, we have a corruption tax on everything else.
The prices were off more than 8 percent so the tax thing is not the reason. Alot of buyers have already been conditioned to pay the taxes.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
<< <i>Hear that splashing sound? It’s the cleaning crew mopping the blood off the auction room floor.
Slaughtered in pretty much every category. Losses in this sale had to total in the millions.
CG >>
Bloodbath? You are assuming that every coin had been purchased at the top of the market.
Anybody notice that the 1941-S WLH that sold for $90k a few years ago went for less than $30k?
<< <i>There were a few winners - the 1870-S dollar brought a profit I do believe.
Anybody notice that the 1941-S WLH that sold for $90k a few years ago went for less than $30k?
<< <i>Is the 8 percent tax on the total price or just for coins under 1000 dollars?
The prices were off more than 8 percent so the tax thing is not the reason. Alot of buyers have already been conditioned to pay the taxes. >>
8% on any amount. I guess I haven't been conditioned yet. Last month I put in approx. 300 bids in the Baltimore Sale. I won 27 coins. This sale, no bids, no wins. How's that for conditioning.
Cal, I welcome an intelligent conversation about this. I think part of what you mention above is due to registry set fatigue, as Orville said. Ie., you have an expensive coin that four people want, but due to the economic downturn, only two are interested in it now. There is less demand, so I could see said coin going for less, especially if it was purchased at the market top.
That being said, I don't look at these coins. I am never going to own a 1913 Liberty Nickel or an 1804 Silver Dollar, so if such coins bring 2.5 million or 1.8 million, while this is a big deal to people who deal in these kinds of coins, it is not relevant to me. Very few collectors are affected by this.
Not "buying a coin right" is always an issue, regardless of when such coin is purchased. I guess the latest extreme example of this was the 41 S Walker in 7, mentioned earlier in this thread. Perhaps this is the current version of the 53 S FBL Franklin in 6 that we saw a few years ago. I have said for years that paying many multiples for a toned coin in the same grade which is as common as dirt for a white coin will lead to problems. Now it's happening.
In the coins I collect, I see no drop in prices whatsoever. Crappy coins / coins in coffins / ugly coins for the grade are going cheaply. I don't collect them. Ie., a number of cleaned, problem Heraldic Eagle Bust $s in AU 50-3 for which dealers wanted between $8,500 and $10,000 a year or so ago just sold for between $6,500 and $7,500. I've never been interested in them. They could sell for $4,000 and I still wouldn't want them.
Some six or seven figure coins are going for less money. I don't collect them. If the coins I collect are not dropping in price at all, what else is going on the market is not relevant to me.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>Well, I'll say it once again. For the material which I follow, Stewart was wrong. Crappy coins are going for less than before. We all know that. The nice high grade old copper -- Coronet Head Large Cents and earlier -- is still as strong as ever. The only piece that didn't sell was just so so for the grade and had a high reserve. >>
I thought the S-14's went kinda cheap as well as the AU flowing hair dollars.
<< <i>
Not "buying a coin right" is always an issue, regardless of when such coin is purchased. I guess the latest extreme example of this was the 41 S Walker in 7, mentioned earlier in this thread. Perhaps this is the current version of the 53 S FBL Franklin in 6 that we saw a few years ago. I have said for years that paying many multiples for a toned coin in the same grade which is as common as dirt for a white coin will lead to problems. Now it's happening. >>
The 1941-S is a white coin, so not sure you've proved your point.
<< <i>In the coins I collect, I see no drop in prices whatsoever. >>
So are you truly saying that MS Lib Nickels have not recently dropped in price?
I need it to drop about 90% or so, so that a mere mortal like me can at least dream of bidding!
Lane
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
<< <i>I don't think I would call the 1876-CC in PCGS-66 going for $460,000 (including BP) a bloodbath. Not a big price, but certainly not a fire sale.
I need it to drop about 90% or so, so that a mere mortal like me can at least dream of bidding!
Lane >>
I agree that the price was strong considering the market, however the consignor still lost around 20% [$100k+) on the coin. $100k here and $100k there and pretty soon you're talking real money!
The 1941-S is a white coin, so not sure you've proved your point.
<< In the coins I collect, I see no drop in prices whatsoever. >>
So are you truly saying that MS Lib Nickels have not recently dropped in price?
My comment re the 1941 S Half related to not buying a coin right. I was making a comparison to the 53 S Half. To me, paying huge amounts for the 41 S or 53 S Halves mentioned is similar to paying many multiples of the toned coin example. While they are separate examples, I think they both deal with the same issue. Sorry I wasn't more clear about this.
Rays - I didn't look at the copper you listed. I looked at the Draped Bust and Classic Heads in Unc., and the nice 1837 5 RB Coronet. All of them went for strong $. As mentioned earlier, the nice Heraldic Eagle Bust $s in AU did not go cheaply either. This was my focus in this auction.
Re the Liberty Nickels in PC 6 sold most recently, I didn't see anything I liked, so I didn't follow the bidding. Ho-hum PC 6 type of this series could be had for $1,000 (maybe less for the coffins / mistakes), which is a 15% drop in pricing on some common dates from a year or so ago. I really haven't seen anything I've liked in this series in this grade for over a year.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>Not "buying a coin right" is always an issue, regardless of when such coin is purchased. I guess the latest extreme example of this was the 41 S Walker in 7, mentioned earlier in this thread. Perhaps this is the current version of the 53 S FBL Franklin in 6 that we saw a few years ago. I have said for years that paying many multiples for a toned coin in the same grade which is as common as dirt for a white coin will lead to problems. Now it's happening.
The 1941-S is a white coin, so not sure you've proved your point.
<< In the coins I collect, I see no drop in prices whatsoever. >>
So are you truly saying that MS Lib Nickels have not recently dropped in price?
My comment re the 1941 S Half related to not buying a coin right. I was making a comparison to the 53 S Half. To me, paying huge amounts for the 41 S or 53 S Halves mentioned is similar to paying many multiples of the toned coin example. While they are separate examples, I think they both deal with the same issue. Sorry I wasn't more clear about this.
Rays - I didn't look at the copper you listed. I looked at the Draped Bust and Classic Heads in Unc., and the nice 1837 5 RB Coronet. All of them went for strong $. As mentioned earlier, the nice Heraldic Eagle Bust $s in AU did not go cheaply either. This was my focus in this auction.
Re the Liberty Nickels in PC 6 sold most recently, I didn't see anything I liked, so I didn't follow the bidding. Ho-hum PC 6 type of this series could be had for $1,000 (maybe less for the coffins / mistakes), which is a 15% drop in pricing on some common dates from a year or so ago. I really haven't seen anything I've liked in this series in this grade for over a year. >>
OK, just wanted to get that clarified, which you did, before I agree with you, which I do - Stewart was wrong. He may have been right that the big consignor was going to take a bath, but for the wrong reasons. His original premise was based primarily on the risk of selling coins unreserved. What you have correctly pointed out is that some of these coins weren't bought right. Also, if you don't buy coins right and they are ho-hum, double whammy.
For reasons that had nothing to do with the fact that I had to, I sold many coins in this CSNS auction, unreserved. They were coins that weren't ho-hummers, some were held for several years, but there were some that were acquired in the last couple of years. Overall, I was very pleased with the results. I'm sure they would have gone off for a bit more several months ago, but no bloodbath for sure, a decent profit.
On the Lib Nickels, the jury is still out for me. The average common coins are definately down like you said, and some of the coins in the auction weren't the greatest. One one hand, the 1885 in PCGS 65 went for $8,050, a good solid price. But the coin was very PQ for the date and grade, so query what an average '85 would have brought. ( I might be biased, that was one of the coins I consigned unreserved.)
Take the 1908 in PCGS 66. Maybe you didn't like it since you didn't see anything you liked, but I think it is a great coin. At FUN 08 it sold for $10,925 (talk about not buying at the right price, I was at FUN and chased it up a bit). At FUN 09, a year later, it sold for $9,200 (I chased it again). AT CSNS, only a few months later, it sells for $3,450
Loos like some categories did fine, however.....
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SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
I always thought he looked rather girly in that wig.
I agree, and then some.
And the losses were more on the buy side than the sale, IMO.
Largely true, although IMHO the biggest losses tended to have more to do with overpaying for plastic than overpaying for coins.
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That one lost a bit also. Was purchased for a bit more after not selling from the Jack Lee sale. Not that it matters-I was shocked by how many were sold for quite a bit less than prior sales.
What I thought was strange was there was no rhyme or reason with the ups and downs/surprises. Take the indian cents: 1877 MS66 PCGS sold for about the same as history- 1909-S 67RD WAY LESS THAN I THOUGHT IT WOULD, and the MS68's WAY MORE. Again, the 1864-L Proof Die par 3 (NOT part of Thomas collection) didnt sell - shows up too much. I love it though...
Many in the auction I used to own dropped TREMENDOUSLY!! (1916 DD MS64 PCGS Buffalo nickel, for one). It was entertaining, but made me think Stewart Blay was correct - there were no whales at the auction.
Maybe like stocks, things are starting to be priced correctly???
<< <i>
So are you truly saying that MS Lib Nickels have not recently dropped in price?
Re the Liberty Nickels in PC 6 sold most recently, I didn't see anything I liked, so I didn't follow the bidding. Ho-hum PC 6 type of this series could be had for $1,000 (maybe less for the coffins / mistakes), which is a 15% drop in pricing on some common dates from a year or so ago. I really haven't seen anything I've liked in this series in this grade for over a year.
On the Lib Nickels, the jury is still out for me. The average common coins are definately down like you said, and some of the coins in the auction weren't the greatest. One one hand, the 1885 in PCGS 65 went for $8,050, a good solid price. But the coin was very PQ for the date and grade, so query what an average '85 would have brought. ( I might be biased, that was one of the coins I consigned unreserved.)
Take the 1908 in PCGS 66. Maybe you didn't like it since you didn't see anything you liked, but I think it is a great coin. At FUN 08 it sold for $10,925 (talk about not buying at the right price, I was at FUN and chased it up a bit). At FUN 09, a year later, it sold for $9,200 (I chased it again). AT CSNS, only a few months later, it sells for $3,450
I bought one of the 66 Liberty Nickels. One of the 1909 Nickels that was offered Lot 1416. Sure, it may not be an absolutely perfect coin, but I think it looks great (and is a top pop 22/0). I've only had a chance to see 5-6 of the MS66 1909 nickels and this is probably #2 or #3 of those I've been able to see. Most of all, I'm thrilled that I won it with a bid of $1900 ($2185 w/ BP). The same coin sold in 1/09 for $4312.50 and the same coin sold back in 9/07 for $4312.50 as well. I know there is no where else I'll find a PCGS 66 1909 for under $2200 right now or probably anywhere in the near future, so I'm very pleased.
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