Home U.S. Coin Forum

Stewart Blay Was Right. It was a bloodbath

24

Comments

  • dragondragon Posts: 4,548 ✭✭
    Bear,

    Exactly what is 'Registry fatigue', and is it a condition somehow related to Spontaneous Human Combustion?
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    Registry fatigue occurs after endless years of trailing

    the front runner and neverbeing able to attain Numero Uno

    status. It also occurs when one tires of pouring money

    into ones registry, to maintain El Supremo designato.

    Lastly, when one owns the best available coins in ones

    registry, it gets boring and one tends to move on to

    wine and women and song.image
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • RegulatedRegulated Posts: 2,992 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The truth is that the only way to understand the prices realized in the sale is to have examined each coin in hand, and then look at what it brought - Andy hit the nail on the head when he stated that, "the biggest losses tended to have more to do with overpaying for plastic than overpaying for coins." Many coins that appeared to be bargains based upon old sales records were actually off-quality, and, as anyone in the market today will tell you, off-quality material is impossible to sell at old levels. It looked to me as though people were buying coins in the sale, not buying holders.

    What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
  • STEWARTBLAYNUMISSTEWARTBLAYNUMIS Posts: 2,697 ✭✭✭✭

    I JUST GOT BACK FROM THE AUCTION AND THE COIN SHOW. The auction was long and tedious and went till the wee wee hours in the morning. The coin show was deader than dead. It could have been like going to a funeral and not many people showed up.
    I was told from a well informed source that the consignor lost approximately 35% of what he paid for these coins. When you buy an 1806 quarter for app. $400,000 in auction, although you could have bought it for $75,000 privately and then it brings $80,000 when you sell it a year later. This was the kind of compulsion of this collector. Caveat Emptor has always been the mantra in the coin business. This consignor is a Big Boy and I feel he knows what he is doing although most of us cannot relate to this kind of wealth.

    Lloyd Mincy - There are still a few whales and most of them were bidding. I was outbid on every Indian cent I tried to buy by a whale who spent app. $500,000 on less than a dozen Indian cents.
    This is more than I spent on every Indian cent in my collection. There was also a very large whale buying up the Buffalo nickels, Mercury dimes and the Walking Liberty Half dollars. The Pogue family also added numerous coins to their collection. I had to pay more than $50,000 to add a Barber dime to my collection but I still paid 10% less than the consignor.

    Coin collecting is still alive and well and alot of FUN. Every buyer I spoke to was Very very HAPPY. So remember if you snooze you lose. Go out there and hunt for your gems !

    Stewart
  • Thank you Stewart for your show report.

    From the sounds of it, coin collectors were at the show and plastic collectors were at home polishing their plastic... image



    Buy the book.
    Then buy the coin.
  • Coin FinderCoin Finder Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The term "bloodbath" used to have or maybe still does ..two meanings in one sense... the one I know, a bloodbath at action is when multiple bidders go after one lot and drive the price.. up. It this case it seems "loses" cause this bloodbath.

    Kinda interesting from Stewarts perspective, he looks good either way he predicts. He does like to look good though....doesnt like critics. kinda like Tradedollar nut..... Anyway, is anyone really surprised?
  • illini420illini420 Posts: 11,466 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i> When you buy an 1806 quarter for app. $400,000 in auction, although you could have bought it for $75,000 privately and then it brings $80,000 when you sell it a year later. >>



    This part I really don't understand... If the coin was bought at auction for $400,000 wasn't there an underbidder bidding $300k something that would have won the coin but for the winner's last bid???
  • DD Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭
    I've never seen a decline in prices for the material I collect. In six years, never a down sale.

    -D
    "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."

    -Aristotle

    Dum loquimur fugerit invida aetas. Carpe diem quam minimum credula postero.

    -Horace
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,198 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If the coin was bought at auction for $400,000 wasn't there an underbidder bidding $300k something that would have won the coin but for the winner's last bid???

    Probably so, but that doesn't mean he's still interested at that level. In fact, we can be quite sure that he isn't.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • jhdflajhdfla Posts: 3,030 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Honestly, it was much better than I expected. And the losses were more on the buy side than the sale, IMO. >>



    I have to agree with you. Lots of good points and examples in this thread, but I'm going to give my take on it. The pool of collectors that are buying 100K plus coins is naturally much smaller than those buying in the 2K-15K range, and if anyone thinks that the economic downturn isn't affecting the big guys you better guess again. HOWEVER, as Andy and a few others pointed out, if you overpay for plastic in a bull market you're likely going to take a hit if you are forced to sell in a softer market. Consider the losses on a supposed blue chip like GE, your losses would have certainly been much greater if you were in GE rather than the 1804.

    My area of interest, coins in the 2K-10K range, held up pretty well I thought, although there were some buys to be had. The former Jascha Heifetz 1851 dime in an older NGC holder went for $1840. w/juice, in June of '08 same coin went for $6325. A big haircut to be sure. The two seated quarters I grabbed went for the kind of money I expected them to bring, certainly not much of a discount. The 1896 quarter in 67 brought considerably more that I expected, at $18,400., what a gorgeous coin. Back to the walkers, the early dates did pretty well considering. For example, the '19-D in PC66 brought 253K, sure it was off from its previous sale in '04 at 270K, but how would 270K of GE have fared in that same period?

    The fantastic run of Indian cents took quite a hammering from some of their previous highs, like the 1872 at 34.5K down from 59.8K, but at what point do prices for top pop coins become absurdly high, have we reached that point finally? Yet a wonderful pop one coin like the 1841 seated dime in PC 66 goes for ~6K. I'd have rather had the dime, and congrats to whoever snagged that coin. There comes a point in time when the old Gene Edwards philosophy of buying the highest quality coin you can has to become tempered by an astronomical difference in price between it and the coin nearly as good. Of course there were no registry sets back then either. But the ego's to own the very best haven't and probably never will go away registry sets or not.


    Please forgive my disjointed ramblings at 4 am.
  • ColonialCoinUnionColonialCoinUnion Posts: 10,087 ✭✭✭


    << <i>It means I think he often overpaid too much to acquire coins - that the prices realized were really pretty strong.

    You can't just throw price history out the window and pay whatever and not expect to take a loss if you sell in just a few years. >>



    IMO the key point is the fact that the coins were back on the market just a few years later (some not even that long).

    Excluding the mistake coins (and there were a bunch of those), the consignor paid top dollar+ for a lot of great things, but even so, if he had kept them for a while the market probably would have caught up with him eventually.

  • astroratastrorat Posts: 9,221 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>I don't think I would call the 1876-CC in PCGS-66 going for $460,000 (including BP) a bloodbath. Not a big price, but certainly not a fire sale.

    I need it to drop about 90% or so, so that a mere mortal like me can at least dream of bidding! image

    Lane >>



    I agree that the price was strong considering the market, however the consignor still lost around 20% [$100k+) on the coin. $100k here and $100k there and pretty soon you're talking real money! image >>



    Yikes, I was not aware of the loss (I was not comparing to a prior sale). That's quite a loss considering it is a marquee coin.

    Lane
    Numismatist Ordinaire
    See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
  • STEWARTBLAYNUMISSTEWARTBLAYNUMIS Posts: 2,697 ✭✭✭✭

    THE UNDERBIDDER ON THE 1806 QUARTER @ $400,000 was Scott Rudolph who sold his coins at FUN in January.

    Confucius says if you are patient and wait the biggest whales will implode ! Collecting takes patience and prudence and is very rewarding both mentally and spiritually.

    jhdfla - The 1872 @ 34.5 K down from 59.8 K is confusing because a properly graded 1872 Indian cent in ms 66 red is a $100,000 coin. This particular coin was woodgrained and misgraded by PCGS.

    It WAS an ms 66R/B that mistakenly was Regraded to ms 66 RD so it became a price based on an insert. IMO PCGS should buy this coin back and regrade it ms 66 R/B.

    The 1841 dime only went for 6 K because one collector was polite to another collector.

    Stewart
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,067 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>so the legend market report will not be "red hot nuclear white fury"? >>



    The Legend report will indeed be: "red hot nucular wite furry!"

    (sorry) >>



    You talkin bout her furry ferrets?image
    theknowitalltroll;
  • Coin FinderCoin Finder Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Are all auctions rigged like this one? Seems Like there is a lot of collusion going on.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,118 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Honestly, it was much better than I expected. And the losses were more on the buy side than the sale, IMO. >>



    I have to agree with you. Lots of good points and examples in this thread, but I'm going to give my take on it. The pool of collectors that are buying 100K plus coins is naturally much smaller than those buying in the 2K-15K range, and if anyone thinks that the economic downturn isn't affecting the big guys you better guess again. HOWEVER, as Andy and a few others pointed out, if you overpay for plastic in a bull market you're likely going to take a hit if you are forced to sell in a softer market. Consider the losses on a supposed blue chip like GE, your losses would have certainly been much greater if you were in GE rather than the 1804.

    My area of interest, coins in the 2K-10K range, held up pretty well I thought, although there were some buys to be had. The former Jascha Heifetz 1851 dime in an older NGC holder went for $1840. w/juice, in June of '08 same coin went for $6325. A big haircut to be sure. The two seated quarters I grabbed went for the kind of money I expected them to bring, certainly not much of a discount. The 1896 quarter in 67 brought considerably more that I expected, at $18,400., what a gorgeous coin. Back to the walkers, the early dates did pretty well considering. For example, the '19-D in PC66 brought 253K, sure it was off from its previous sale in '04 at 270K, but how would 270K of GE have fared in that same period?

    The fantastic run of Indian cents took quite a hammering from some of their previous highs, like the 1872 at 34.5K down from 59.8K, but at what point do prices for top pop coins become absurdly high, have we reached that point finally? Yet a wonderful pop one coin like the 1841 seated dime in PC 66 goes for ~6K. I'd have rather had the dime, and congrats to whoever snagged that coin. There comes a point in time when the old Gene Edwards philosophy of buying the highest quality coin you can has to become tempered by an astronomical difference in price between it and the coin nearly as good. Of course there were no registry sets back then either. But the ego's to own the very best haven't and probably never will go away registry sets or not.


    Please forgive my disjointed ramblings at 4 am. >>



    Interesting comparison ... GE .... why don't you substitute Walmart for GE & see the results.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My 401(k) only went down 14% last year - most coins did worse than that.

    I had forgotten about the 1806 quarter, Stewart - that was one that had ALL our heads shaking at the time!
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,214 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>THE UNDERBIDDER ON THE 1806 QUARTER @ $400,000 was Scott Rudolph who sold his coins at FUN in January.

    Confucius says if you are patient and wait the biggest whales will implode ! Collecting takes patience and prudence and is very rewarding both mentally and spiritually.

    jhdfla - The 1872 @ 34.5 K down from 59.8 K is confusing because a properly graded 1872 Indian cent in ms 66 red is a $100,000 coin. This particular coin was woodgrained and misgraded by PCGS.

    It WAS an ms 66R/B that mistakenly was Regraded to ms 66 RD so it became a price based on an insert. IMO PCGS should buy this coin back and regrade it ms 66 R/B.

    The 1841 dime only went for 6 K because one collector was polite to another collector.

    Stewart >>




    I like that part in BOLD type. It gives me great hope that I'm on the right track with my collecting goals. I would also venture a guess that most of us "little fishies" completely relate.
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I can relate to that sentence. I was just about ready to give up on my seated dollar collection because a whale was buying all the finest coins and I was getting tired of not being able to acquire the coins I wanted. I talked to Laura about offering him all my coins. But in a one month period everything changed - I acquired 3 stunning coins privately at FUN and then a bit later the whale decided to cash out and I acquired his set intact to add to mine!
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    .....and on quality gem material as well. It had little to do with the fundamental merits of the coin as much as the state of the market and the fact that many pieces were acquired for aggressive prices at the top of the market a short time ago.

    Not necessarily. Most of my coins I've bought at "aggressive" prices and near cyclical lows. I've been slowly selling decent and pq choice/gem 19th century type coins at each summer ANA and FUN shows for each of the past 5 years (2004-2008). I've kept in touch with the market on both price levels and what varying levels of quality are bringing. The goal was to slowly weed out any weak coins. Even at summer of 2008 I sold a dozen or more PF/MS 65-67 type coins that were not solid enough for the grade for my tastes and got strong levels for them. The market then tailed off by the late fall and I was quite concerned that the coins I had left, though of higher quality and eye appeal still might get brutalized going forward. Needless to say, my March Baltimore auction sale results were far less than expected. Even I was stunned. These weren't "short time" purchases either as every one went back to at least 2002, and some to the later 1990's and one even to 1988. PF65 No Motto seated halves that I could have easily sold for $5750-6000 in summer 2008 fetched $4000 with the 15%. The one with a CAC sticker fetched $5400 (though ironically this one was originally graded lower as NGC PF64 when I purchased all 3 back in 2002).

    Some very nice CAC coins realized within 10% of what I paid for them wholesale in 2002. And 2002 was not a strong market with tons of competition. A pair of orig and colorful CAC MS67 Barber quarters from 1994 and 1998 took a 10% hit from orig purchase price...or 30-35% less than 2008 peak. It wasn't the case that these were short term purchases or the quality stunk. Fortunately at least 3 coins in my total consignment brought prices that were strong enough so that I gained about 10% total over orig cost, but this is on decent coins held since 2002. The 1855 half in PCGS 66 CAC actually brought summer 2008 money at $38K. That coin was orig purchased in 2002 for $14K. I can only guess that 2 collectors "had to have" that coin and bid it up as I was expecting as low as $17K (reserve) on that one. But it was the exception to the rule.

    To those who PM'd me after the sale I described March Baltimore as a "bloodbath" with essentially no dealers buying on spec. And that was exactly the same thing I witnessed at FUN when sitting through the type coin sessions of the Heritage sale. The CSNS sale being a bloodbath is certainly nothing new. Right now it's the norm. Whether it's a lack of confidence, lack of money, etc. the bottom line is still the same. From my point of view I see type coins at generally back to 2002-2004 levels with some areas further back into the later 1990's. And some of those late 90's level are not far off from 1988 and 1993. Food for thought.

    It would seem that even though I rejected the vast majority of coins I saw, that was not discriminating enough. Another good lesson learned was that most nice NGC-CAC'd coins didn't hold up. The PCGS brand name has faired much better in this downturn. In the upturn it wasn't as big a deal as they were within 5-10% of each other. Surviving in this silver type coin market has pretty much meant being in PCGS-CAC coins of pop top condition or possibly NGC*-CAC coins. Not much else has survived, except top quality circs of "value" coins. And as to the hype still being written in various market reports about quality coins still bringing all the money or at most a 10-20% haircut, it just ain't so Joe, at least not in 90% of the cases. Just go out and try to sell them to those writing the reports. It was hard enough to sell to many of them in boom times, never mind these times. Now what happens to all those so-so quality coins that the retailers have placing with their clients over the past 2-12 years that just won't meet CAC quality (ie solid for the grade) and that the dealers just can't afford to buy back other than at levels other than next grade down? That 1876-cc 20c piece at $400K seems strong imo. That same coin and quality in 1988 would have cost about $75K-$85K. That's an ok return over those 21 years, certainly not a loss.

    The market could still literally turn on a dime at some point with fresh whiffs from $13 TRILL in credit. 10 and 30 yr. interest rates are slowly being bumped higher. But it will take some time. One major dealer who had consistently carried a strong inventory of gem coinage now only sports about half a dozen coins on-line and a gold buying/selling service. Signs of the time for sure.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • MowgliMowgli Posts: 1,219


    << <i>IMO the key point is the fact that the coins were back on the market just a few years later (some not even that long).

    Excluding the mistake coins (and there were a bunch of those), the consignor paid top dollar+ for a lot of great things, but even so, if he had kept them for a while the market probably would have caught up with him eventually. >>



    image As a collector I expect to wait five years before I can sell a coin for more than I paid for it. Some times it is sooner but on some series/coins it is later.
    In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king.
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    And as to the hype still being written in various market reports about quality coins still bringing all the money or at most a 10-20% haircut, it just ain't so Joe, at least not in 90% of the cases. Just go out and try to sell them to those writing the reports.

    I think they do - they're just much more illiquid. I just paid all the money [and more] for a PQ gem seated coin.
  • MowgliMowgli Posts: 1,219


    << <i>My 401(k) only went down 14% last year - most coins did worse than that.

    << <i>

    I'm sending you my retirement funds.
    In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king.


  • << <i>Not much else has survived, except top quality circs of "value" coins. >>


    Ahhhh...the only shred of info that's relevant for the masses of the board. I enjoy my extra nice 55-58 as much as some pride in their 68 top pop 150 yr provenanced spectacular beauties. Oh yes, I would trade em even up of course! But I’m just a common collector that enjoys the hunt for an extra nice cir or affordable MS at sheet bid (or more if the eye candy is too alluring). In life many set their sights high by demanding and pursuing only the best, and the rest of us ewh and ahh in appreciation of those whale scores. We are enlighten and educated by those purist. And I for one enjoy it when those top dogs sweep low and muddle with the masses.
    My hats of to TDN who made big bets on educated calculated odds and came through in flying colors. I too have made those bets but not on coins. If the unimaginable were happen I have chose to cling to things more comfortable for me than a small metal round, but I do applaud those in this thread who will openly post what the “big boys and girls” are doing behind the scenes and in the bidding halls. Most enlightening and entertaining. Thanks for the candor all.
    OLDER IS BETTER
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    think they do - they're just much more illiquid. I just paid all the money [and more] for a PQ gem seated coin.

    There is always the exception, esp for something very hard to replace where at least 2 people with money would be very interested in it today. For every such exception there are 10-20 coins of solid to excellent quality that will currently sell for sharp discounts. I guess it's like credit derivatives. The bankers that own them say they are worth 80-95 cents on the dollar yet there is no market for them at anywhere near those levels. If you wanted to sell them you would have to take at best 5 cents to 40 cents on the dollar with the truth being closer to 5 cents. So are solidly decent coins for the grade worth 80-95% or 65-75%? I'd say it's whatever the market will give you for them today....not tomorrow when liquidity comes back.

    Quickwing, I was pretty vague on what constitutes a "circ value" coin today. Suffice to say that most would be surprised at what they previously thought was a no problem coin is now viewed as less than 100% "all there." The buyers will get pickier and pickier and every little abrasion or defect will be magnified in consequence. This was the way the 1981-1982 shakeout handled the market crash. Prices on the sheet didn't drop, but it took a higher quality coin every month to bring greysheet bid.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • illini420illini420 Posts: 11,466 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>THE UNDERBIDDER ON THE 1806 QUARTER @ $400,000 was Scott Rudolph who sold his coins at FUN in January.

    Confucius says if you are patient and wait the biggest whales will implode ! Collecting takes patience and prudence and is very rewarding both mentally and spiritually.

    jhdfla - The 1872 @ 34.5 K down from 59.8 K is confusing because a properly graded 1872 Indian cent in ms 66 red is a $100,000 coin. This particular coin was woodgrained and misgraded by PCGS.

    It WAS an ms 66R/B that mistakenly was Regraded to ms 66 RD so it became a price based on an insert. IMO PCGS should buy this coin back and regrade it ms 66 R/B.

    The 1841 dime only went for 6 K because one collector was polite to another collector.

    Stewart >>




    I like that part in BOLD type. It gives me great hope that I'm on the right track with my collecting goals. I would also venture a guess that most of us "little fishies" completely relate. >>




    I like that as well... I sort of try to follow that line of thinking, but unfortunately I'm not very good at being patient sometimes image Occasionally I get lucky and end up making out well on my impatience, but more times than not I end up paying for my lack of patience in the long run.

    And thanks Stewart for the clarification on your comment regarding the bidding on the 1806 quarter.

    Two "whales" bidding against each other = crazy insane prices... but seems like on some of the coins in the present auction that no "whales" bidding = some very reasonable prices for collectors, and maybe even a few steals like the 1841 dime. image

    Will be interesting to see where the market goes from here... with some "patience and prudence" of course image
  • RedTigerRedTiger Posts: 5,608
    Day 3 of the CRO report has a good summary of the auction:

    CRO report link

    http://www.coinraritiesonline.com/index.php?page=road
    from Day 3 of April 28-May 2, 2009: The Central States Show in Cincinnati
    >> First the preview:
    Now, in the days leading up to this event, dealer views were mixed:

    1. Some were nervous that a lot of these coins would go super cheap, kicking the market in the numismatic groin.

    2. Some were licking their chops (an unbelievably unpleasant mental picture) hoping for low prices so they could buy a lot of coins for short money and make outsized profits.

    3. Others thought the results would be pretty strong.

    And it turned out everyone was right (or wrong, as the case may be).

    ...
    >> Then the summary results (details with some specific coins are in the blog)

    So, what conclusions can we draw here?

    1. Attempting to predict the price of any single item at auction is just about impossible.

    2. Prices overall are probably down 20 or 30% or more on average on most things from their peak of a year or two ago (thought there are obviously exceptions - some are off much more, some are actually up).

    3. Some of the least original, most unappealing pieces in this auction actually sold for more than we thought they would.

    4. Selling coins in large unreserved auctions is absolutely not for the feint of heart.

    5. There are clearly still people out there prepared to pay almost anything (seemingly) for superb high end examples of rare coins, there are just fewer of them, and less lots on which they butt heads.
    >>

    Like the preview, the thread opinions about as wide apart, with everyone able to claim they are are right by pointing to isolated results. What I often write is when looking at data, it is the averages that matter most, not the top (which still went up a bit) or the bottom (which saw some coins net 50%+ losses). With this in mind #2 is what I see as most relevant:
    "2. Prices overall are probably down 20 or 30% or more on average on most things from their peak of a year or two ago"

  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,067 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>If the coin was bought at auction for $400,000 wasn't there an underbidder bidding $300k something that would have won the coin but for the winner's last bid???

    Probably so, but that doesn't mean he's still interested at that level. In fact, we can be quite sure that he isn't. >>



    How can you be sure that he isn't interested in the coin at his last bid?
    theknowitalltroll;
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,067 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>My 401(k) only went down 14% last year - most coins did worse than that.

    I had forgotten about the 1806 quarter, Stewart - that was one that had ALL our heads shaking at the time! >>



    Welcome to the club for those who are earning their 401K gains all over again.image
    theknowitalltroll;
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,162 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>If the coin was bought at auction for $400,000 wasn't there an underbidder bidding $300k something that would have won the coin but for the winner's last bid???

    Probably so, but that doesn't mean he's still interested at that level. In fact, we can be quite sure that he isn't. >>



    How can you be sure that he isn't interested in the coin at his last bid? >>



    Because of what it sold for this time.
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,067 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>If the coin was bought at auction for $400,000 wasn't there an underbidder bidding $300k something that would have won the coin but for the winner's last bid???

    Probably so, but that doesn't mean he's still interested at that level. In fact, we can be quite sure that he isn't. >>



    How can you be sure that he isn't interested in the coin at his last bid? >>



    Because of what it sold for this time. >>



    Well thats kinda what I was thinking so I spose he should be glad he lost.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Sometimes, the best thing that can happen to you is you don't get what you want. image
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,198 ✭✭✭✭✭
    << If the coin was bought at auction for $400,000 wasn't there an underbidder bidding $300k something that would have won the coin but for the winner's last bid???

    Probably so, but that doesn't mean he's still interested at that level. In fact, we can be quite sure that he isn't. >>


    How can you be sure that he isn't interested in the coin at his last bid?


    Actually, my comment was in error. The underbidder at the first auction could indeed have been willing to pay as much as last time. But if that was the case, nobody was around this time to run him up to that level.
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • RonyahskiRonyahski Posts: 3,117 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Sometimes, the best thing that can happen to you is you don't get what you want. image >>




    You can't always get what you want
    But if you try sometimes
    You just might find
    You'll get what you need
    Some refer to overgraded slabs as Coffins. I like to think of them as Happy Coins.
  • tychojoetychojoe Posts: 1,335 ✭✭✭
    It was nice to see that patience and prudence paid off for Ronyahski when he caught up to the Lib Nickel!

    Way to go!

    I imagine that was mentally and spiritually rewarding!
  • ColonialCoinUnionColonialCoinUnion Posts: 10,087 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Confucius says if you are patient and wait the biggest whales will implode ! Collecting takes patience and prudence and is very rewarding both mentally and spiritually. >>



    This is a fine strategy if you don't mind missing out on certain coins, or are content to settle for second best, etc. But for the lucky few who can afford the best pieces, and who really desire to own them, waiting for a whale to "implode" isn't practical.

    First off, the collectors age ought to be a consideration. If you are 78, waiting for someone else to sell may not be realistic.

    And what about coins purchased by Pogue? Will these be on the market again anytime soon?

    Also, if not whales, it might be someone (or something else), such as the high end Ford colonials which ended up in a museum in Colonial Williamsburg and are - apparently - forever off the market. Anyone who decided those coins were going too strong at the auction and put their bidder card down will now never have another chance to own them.

    I think anyone inclined to have the best needs to seize the opportunities to acquire them when they present themselves. And that means outbidding whoever else is active at the time a coin you want comes to auction.

    As noted earlier though, this sort of stratgey only makes sense if 1) you can afford it, and 2) you plan to keep them for a while (or do not care if you lose money on them).



  • JulianJulian Posts: 3,370 ✭✭✭
    There were also coins that sold for more than what was paid for them, in one case nearly double on a mid five figure Peace dollar.
    PNG member, numismatic dealer since 1965. Operates a retail store, also has exhibited at over 1000 shows.
    I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.

    eBaystore
  • KentuckyJKentuckyJ Posts: 1,871 ✭✭✭

    > As noted earlier though, this sort of stratgey only makes sense if 1) you can afford it, and 2) you plan to keep them for a while (or do not care if you lose money on them).


    And if they truly are 'the best' and not just an illusory something special of which another equally nice offering is just around the corner.

  • orevilleoreville Posts: 11,923 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Interestingly, the small quantity of slabbed coins I have been slowly selling off (all non CAC stickered slabs) are comprised of three components:

    (1) PCGS slabbed coins of mostly marginal quality for the grade with the latest blue insert that are selling slowly but steadily.

    (2) NGC slabbed coins of mostly marginal quality for the assigned grade in the post 1999 holder that are not selling at all. post fatboy NGC slabbed coins without CAC stickers have literally crashed and burned as of late.

    (3) Old PCGS and NGC slabbed holders such as rattrlers, doily, OGH, Regency, all white NGC inserts, etc. are moving out of my box faster than ever and at even stronger prices than before.

    Perhaps it is all about the plastic and not the coin? image
    A Collectors Universe poster since 1997!
  • ColonialCoinUnionColonialCoinUnion Posts: 10,087 ✭✭✭


    << <i>> As noted earlier though, this sort of stratgey only makes sense if 1) you can afford it, and 2) you plan to keep them for a while (or do not care if you lose money on them).


    And if they truly are 'the best' and not just an illusory something special of which another equally nice offering is just around the corner. >>



    Yes, absolutely.
  • IrishMikeIrishMike Posts: 7,737 ✭✭✭
    If you don't have the kind of money that you can throw away find something better to do with your money then seek gratification in owning a six figure coin. It amazes me the number of expensive coins that I see purchased and resold not long afterward and then that person is hailed as a true collector. No, what they are is someone with a lot money and who sometimes rely on an expert or dealer to give them the high sign. Some times we even get a great story to go along with the sale of the rented coin (insert sarcasm emoticon) followed by a litany of kudos usually from the dealer who arranged either the front end sale or back end sale.
  • STEWARTBLAYNUMISSTEWARTBLAYNUMIS Posts: 2,697 ✭✭✭✭

    DOES ANYONE THINK IT WOULD HAVE BEEN WISE FOR ME TO OUTBID THE WHALE WHO PAID $100,000 FOR AN 1899 INDIAN CENT ?

    I think it could be FUN to be a kermudgeon and sell my home and sleep in my truck. However I like the luxuries such as a nice shower,fabulous food and nice clean clothes.

    IF YOU BLEED THROUGH YOUR RECTUM BECAUSE YOU STRETCHED BEYOND YOUR MEANS WILL IT MAKE YOU FEEL WONDERFUL ? Not me Thank You.....But I will give it my BEST SHOT

    I truly believe the story of how you acquire every coin in your collection reflects on your collection. For instance, if you know a coin is doctored and it gets in a high grade holder is it better than a coin one grade lower that has original skin ? Is something dipped and stripped bettter than a darker original coin?
    The history of a coin,the pedigree, how you acquire the coin,where you acquire the coin and under what circumstances are what makes our collections unique. AND IF PCGS GIVES US AN UPGRADE IS AN INSPIRATION IN COLLECTING

    STEWART
  • ColonialCoinUnionColonialCoinUnion Posts: 10,087 ✭✭✭


    << <i> IF YOU BLEED THROUGH YOUR RECTUM BECAUSE YOU STRETCHED BEYOND YOUR MEANS WILL IT MAKE YOU FEEL WONDERFUL ? >>



    A thread cannot be considered worthwhile reading until this phrase appears.
  • coinkatcoinkat Posts: 23,024 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A collector as well as an investor needs to know and understand their limitations...

    And that seems to be about the same request as asking for World Peace

    Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.

  • ToneloverTonelover Posts: 1,554
    FWIW, I sold about $40K worth of my own meager collection in the sale and would have been quite satisfied with the results even if we were in a good market. The majority of the consignment was nicely toned type coins and I did buy over the years with patience, discretion and with an eye towards value. For instance, a pretty 1926-S MS-65 SLQ went for more than twice bid, someone must think it will 66. They could be right. A 1950-S/D Washington Quarter in MS-66 for $3,450, originally purchased for $875. Most of my toned Washington Quarters set a high water mark in comparison to the past prices realized for their respective dates. A 1952-S PCGS MS-66 Washington Carver goes off today and internet bidding is currently at $1,900 plus the juice. Wow.

    Maybe the prices would have been better in a different market but I have no complaints. The only thing that I have had a tough time getting any bites at all are on MS-64 ans MS-65 Barber Quarters. Fortunately I didn't have many.

    Thanks to Heritage for taking some great pictures of my colorful coins. That has been a big contention of mine in some past consignments but they seemed to have done something differently this time which I feel really helped a lot.
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I still don't think it was a bloodbath
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • BECOKABECOKA Posts: 16,960 ✭✭✭


    << <i>100! image >>



    Shoot, you've got to be quick for this stuff. image
  • PLEPLE Posts: 193 ✭✭
    Hey Stewart,

    Any chance you can tell us which were some of the Indians that you bid on, and didn't win because you thought the price too high?

  • Bayard1908Bayard1908 Posts: 4,031 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I still don't think it was a bloodbath >>

    image

    I bought half a dozen coins in this sale. I would have bought 50 in a true bloodbath.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file