Long Beach looking bleak - now that I have your attention whats it really like?

ScarsdaleCoin · February 2, 2009 5:08AM

Early reports coming in.... stuff at pre auction not selling at great numbers today.... now gold down $20.... hate to be negative but looks like it will be a really bleak show!

Im not talking about cool stuff like the Naftzger collections, Im talking about the regular recycle stuff we see ever show!

EDIT...
I Apologize for people taking my post way to serious.... I am not saying the show is bad, just saying based on several factors looks like it will be tough for business.... I am just a small pebble in the vast coin ocean... and I hope as I say below that I am proven wrong and the show is a smashing sucess... I have the utmost respect for CU and the way they run the show...my post was not a bash in any way shape or form!

Jon

MidLifeCrisis · February 2, 2009 5:12AM

Chin up...early reports are just that. Wait and see. You might be surprised.

shirohniichan · February 2, 2009 5:14AM

Should I go on Saturday and see if dealers will unload gold at 50% of current bid?

ScarsdaleCoin · February 2, 2009 5:26AM

Bullion is not what we are talking about.... Bullion will be hot, but not as hot as it would have been had it been rising....as it lowers... dealers pull it off the shelf since they dont want to take a loss!

We are talking about average collector coins....

Believe me.... I hope I am proved wrong and there is a great show....just passing on that it is looking bad

lathmach · February 2, 2009 5:30AM

Are you seeing a lot of tire kickers, or is it that the collectors just didn't show up?

Ray

saintguru · February 2, 2009 5:32AM

WIDGETEERS!! PROVOCATEURS!!

someone has to take "her" place.

Walkerguy21D · February 2, 2009 5:54AM

We'll be seeing everyone piling on soon about how the market is still collapsing and getting worse, etc.....but I saw several reports that indicated the Parsippany NJ was pretty good overall. Granted we're talking different coasts, and different venues, so it's not an apples/apples comparison. Still it may indicate that maybe the whole coin market is not collapsing!

saintguru · February 2, 2009 5:55AM

People buy Parsnips when they get poor.

ScarsdaleCoin · February 2, 2009 6:04AM

Parsnip...Jersey was SMOKING RED HOT..... I had the best numbers Sun that I ever had!!!!!

but Im not talking about the market... I am talking about one show.... and whats happening at the moment....

if you dont want to hear show by show reports...I will be happy not to waste my time posting?

Sun post on Pasnip was excellent...today Im talking LB

etexmike · February 2, 2009 6:27AM

<< if you dont want to hear show by show reports...I will be happy not to waste my time posting? >>

I like reading all of the show reports. The big ones and the small ones. Keep 'em coming and thanks to all that take the time to post.

Mike

291fifth · February 2, 2009 6:36AM

Accurate and detailed show reports are always appreciated. Detail regarding what is hot and what is not is very helpful.

MidLifeCrisis · February 2, 2009 6:42AM

<< I like reading all of the show reports. The big ones and the small ones. Keep 'em coming and thanks to all that take the time to post. >>

ArizonaJack · February 2, 2009 6:49AM

I am but a miniscule wanabee on the coin market. I sold $5300 in " under $50 Lincolns at my MesaCoinClub show this last weekend. Nothing over $1000 sold, no SVDB's, no 55 DDO, nor 1914-D's, these were collectors out in force buying the occasional 1910-S in VF, the 1922-D in XF etc etc.

Most I talked too said " bid " is the new retail, get used to it. We shall see.

Every BU roll I had sold at CDN sheet, and I sold out of Fine and lower semi keys. The primo " expensive coins" ( from a circ Lincoln guy ) did not sell.

I did notice however, that the NGC 40's and 50's decade 66 reds and 67 reds sat.........zero interest.

jhdfla · February 2, 2009 6:54AM

I've never been to LB, but I'm told this show has been on a downward spiral for some time now. If this is the case it would be wrong to assess the market based on LB... apparently Jersey was pretty good...perhaps we should restrict all future coin shows to the East coast?

Fletcher · February 2, 2009 6:55AM

"'Bid' is the new retail!"

LOL ... I love it! Unfortunately, the coins I like to buy never sell at bid

robkool · February 2, 2009 6:59AM

Can't wait to score on some kool deals at LB... With my CDN in hand.

Elcontador · February 2, 2009 7:02AM

Please write a coin show report re Long Beach. I find them interesting.

This is the first time in 10 years plus I will not be attending a Long Beach Show when I am in town. There is nothing at the Heritage Auction which interests me. I don't do Stack's due to what imo is their terrible customer service from New York. I don't do the other auctions for reasons I won't get into here.

At the Long Beach September show, I was done in 3 1/2 hours. That included walking the floor twice, and checking out several Heritage lots. I found two coins which interested me, but none which were priced anywhere near what I thought was reasonable , so I passed on both of them. What made the trip to Long Beach worthwhile was seeing Katy Duncan's beautiful 1906 S Barber Half, which is one of the most attractive cons in the series I have ever seen (if I didn't already have a nice Barber Half, I may have snagged that one).

I am not attending Long Beach, because I anticipate very little which would interest me on the bourse, coupled with the impression I have that many dealers haven't yet realized that they aren't going to get the prices for many of their coins that they may have gotten eighteen months ago. The pricing of the two coins I mentioned at 50% plus what they were worth was as amusing as it was pathetic.

DennisH · February 2, 2009 7:04AM

Most dealers at big shows still seem to be asking "all the money" for what I collect and, presumably, have been returning home with much of their inventory. I suspect the message about the economy and recent auction results for "stuff" will eventually sink in.

AlbaJohn · February 2, 2009 7:05AM

Jon- You have touted your show, Coinfest numerous times on this forum. I'm surprised you would bash the Long beach Show, owned by Collectors Universe- especially on Collectors Universe's chatroom. Even more surprising, you're bashing the show before it's even started. Should forum memebers not even bother attending? I'm confused.
John Albanese

mrearlygold · February 2, 2009 7:10AM

BillJones · February 2, 2009 7:12AM

Let’s see

The show hasn’t even started yet (Coin World lists it as February 5 through 7) and we already hear that the show sucks. Pessimism can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you tell everybody the show is no good before it’s even had a chance to begin, people will grab their purse strings, it will become a reality.

I’m not as big a fan of Franklin Roosevelt as some people, but one thing he did so was present a positive outlook. His state in his first inaugural address, “What we have to fear is fear itself,” really set a good tone. If things suck and you say they do that’s reality. If you decide going in that they going to be bad chances are it will be. Let’s hear was going next Friday. Then we will have a real

Longacre · February 2, 2009 7:14AM

I thought that the Long Beach shows traditionally were not very strong. Perhaps they are just a bit weaker because we are in the beginnings of a Numismatic Recession. I need to check the schedule and see what big show is next. If there are two bloodbaths in a row, then we should start worrying.

Unknown · February 2, 2009 7:18AM

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coolest · February 2, 2009 7:18AM

Sounds great to me. Maybe I should check the auctions more carefully because I am sure the dealers on the floor will not be lowering their prices just because some "fool" has determined that the coin market is in a downturn.

jhdfla · February 2, 2009 7:23AM

TwoSides2aCoin · February 2, 2009 7:30AM

<< I thought that the Long Beach shows traditionally were not very strong. Perhaps they are just a bit weaker because we are in the beginnings of a Numismatic Recession. I need to check the schedule and see what big show is next. If there are two bloodbaths in a row, then we should start worrying. >>

Please come to the Nebraska City Coin Show on the 8th.
Wear coveralls.

Sunnywood · February 2, 2009 7:33AM

Jon, as you know, gold is very volatile. One day's move does not make a market or a trend. We all know the economy is bleak, but perhaps it would be better to wait until Long Beach is over before assessing whether or not it is a success !!!

In any case, I hope all of you (dealers included) visit my toned Morgan set at the PCGS table at Long Beach. After all, shows are about auction and business, but they should also be about enjoying some coins !!!

Best,
Sunnywood

MrEureka · February 2, 2009 7:33AM

Jon- You have touted your show, Coinfest numerous times on this forum. I'm surprised you would bash the Long beach Show, owned by Collectors Universe- especially on Collectors Universe's chatroom.

John - I think you misread Jon's post. His comments didn't bash the show at all. He only said that it looks like the market is weaker. which would of course impact trading at Long Beach later this week.

Edited to say that, despite Jon's post, I'm still going to attend the show.

19Lyds · February 2, 2009 7:36AM

Regardless of how bleak you think it looks, I'll be going and looking for IKE's ..................... so bring em on!

tcmitssr · February 2, 2009 7:59AM

As long as I have money to buy quality coins, I'm all for the dealer market falling. Let them have to accept 10 percent behind bid for awhile in order to move merchandise or improve their cash flow.

Works for me, if they want my cash.

MORGANHUNTER2 · February 2, 2009 8:03AM

I'll be there to see if anyone has what i'm looking for on Saturday, provided there are a few dealers still hanging out for the weekend.

This show should take into consideration that at this time of year and now the current economy, holding the show until Sunday would be possibly beneficial, but this is my point of view. Some of collectors work fora living and a Thursday-Saturday cuts into precious financial making events (a paycheck), kids are in school- kind of tough to take them out of it for a 1 day visit- esplain to the teacher that dad had to have a coin fix and I wanted to go also - I think warrants a day in detention...

I'll be there Saturday- bright and early to look for Frankie's, Ike's and a few other items.

Oh and hook up with a few boardies for the heck of it.

au58 · February 2, 2009 8:32AM

DEWEY Defeats TRUMAN!!

So much for early reports.

Bear · February 2, 2009 8:37AM

I predict that there will be strong areas of the coin

market and weak areas of the coin market. However

The weak areas are increasingly weak and there seem

to be more of such areas. The strong areas are merely

holding there own and the number of such strong areas

are less in number. In fact, the market appears to be sliding

slowly on a downward path. The question is whether this

slow decline will continue, or will it accelerate to a sudden

drop off.

In otherwords, the market has a declining sense of oomph!

rld14 · February 2, 2009 8:38AM

IMO it's gotta be too soon to call this one.

The Stack's sale at FUN was horrible, but the Heritage sale wasn't as bad by all accounts. Some coins at FUN were really way soft (SLQs at the Heritage sale) and some were really strong (Copper did very well from all accounts).

But I was not there, that's just what I saw posted on here and people who went told me and what I saw from my Heritage watch list.

Meanwhile, Parsippany was strong yesterday, and I heard about a show in Michigan that was strong. Michigan has probably the worst economy in America right now.

I think the market IS correcting and it will correct. Every time in history the market has spiked like this it has corrected. So who thinks things are different this time?

adamlaneus · February 2, 2009 9:15AM

Strong prices or not...

I heard that there will be a dance after the show. I also heard Laura will be there to give helpful advice.

Problem is, the things that I heard may just be voices in my head.

ColonialCoinUnion · February 2, 2009 9:17AM

It's Monday. The show starts Thursday.

PrivateCoinCollector · February 2, 2009 9:26AM

I will be at table Table 1058. Come on by show me all the rips!

golfer72 · February 2, 2009 9:32AM

I didnt read Jon's comments as bashing at all. He just made an observation. I appreciate his input and any show reports (even pre show) are appreciated by me who cant attend too many shows.

oreville · February 2, 2009 9:34AM

Scarsdalecoin is just making sure we have just one big thread for the Long Beach show rather than the nonsenical 40 plus threads we had for the FUN show.

I like his reports also. Keep them coming. Now I have a prayer to find them.

thisnamztaken · February 2, 2009 9:48AM

<<

>>

100+?

BECOKA · February 2, 2009 10:16AM

Good quality hard to find stuff is still bringing premiums if the opening bids at Goldberg say anything.

saintguru · February 2, 2009 10:29AM

It's ridiculous to judge a show on Monday!! I heard that the Nafziger coins went VERY strong.

Gold down $20? What about GOLD IS UP $100 from a month ago?? We're at $900+....that's bad? Oh...how about GOLD IS UP $200 since Oct.?!!? That sucks!

SOS....good stuff sells well...garbage and mediocre stuff will be soft if the market is soft.

If things are so bad then BUY EVERYTHING YOU CAN THAT LOOKS GOOD!!

Hell, I've bought most of my BEST stuff in sloppy markets, many I was a "cheap" bid in the book!

saintguru · February 2, 2009 10:37AM

actually...GOLD crossed the 50 week MVA two weeks ago to the upside.

That's pretty good if I read the market correctly.

joebb21 · February 2, 2009 11:22AM

I was at the parssipanny show this past sunday- you couldnt buy an ounce of gold for under $1,000.
little tables had them and I dont think I saw any krugs. then again I didnt get there till 9:15 when all the big boys come by 8...

Shortgapbob · February 2, 2009 11:36AM

We are not expecting much from Long Beach, but Long Beach hasn't been a really good show for several years now. Plus, gold always falls before Long Beach, so I don't see what is different about this show.

I actually think the smaller shows have been better than the larger shows as of late. Especially for $3,000 and under coins.

illini420 · February 2, 2009 11:41AM

First time I've seen a show report before the show even started... as long as the dealers stay until Saturday, and have some decent coins to sell, they'll likely get a big piece of my wallet

SkyMan · February 2, 2009 11:43AM

<< 

<< ...I’m not as big a fan of Franklin Roosevelt as some people, but one thing he did so was present a positive outlook. His state in his first inaugural address, “What we have to fear is fear itself,” really set a good tone. If things suck and you say they do that’s reality. If you decide going in that they going to be bad chances are it will be. Let’s hear was going next Friday. Then we will have a real >>

I believe that was Winston Churchill, but whatever, bottom line is I agree with you and John A. and others... >>

It was indeed FDR.

Assuming you have money, buy what you like at a price that is reasonable to you whenever you can. It's really pretty simple.

Bear · February 2, 2009 12:07PM

Remember a down market , like an up market, always

benefits a large segment of the Industry. Thus either

market is neither good or bad in itself.

RedTiger · February 2, 2009 12:55PM

<< First time I've seen a show report before the show even started... as long as the dealers stay until Saturday, and have some decent coins to sell, they'll likely get a big piece of my wallet

>>

I'm the opposite--I'm skipping the show. Last couple of coin shows, I didn't find anything on my primary want list at reasonable prices (reasonable meaning near sheet for coins that typically sell for about sheet at auction on Ebay and other venues). I did come home with some low cost dark side stuff and tokens and such from binders and junk boxes. When I checked prices after coming home was dismayed to find that I overpaid by a good percentage on most of the items (again comparing to what similar items sell for at other venues).

With those kind of experiences, I think I'll sit at least one show out and wait for the dust to settle. If this is a bear market for collector coins (the jury is still out), patience and sticking to the want list are the best way for me to proceed. In a bear market, the most common mistake is to spend cash reserves too early.

ColonialCoinUnion · February 2, 2009 1:00PM

<< Early reports coming in.... stuff at pre auction not selling at great numbers today.... now gold down $20.... hate to be negative but looks like it will be a really bleak show! >>

Jon - are you even here?

mrearlygold · February 2, 2009 2:08PM

<< 

<< Early reports coming in.... stuff at pre auction not selling at great numbers today.... now gold down $20.... hate to be negative but looks like it will be a really bleak show! >>

Jon - are you even here? >>

Long Beach looking bleak - now that I have your attention whats it really like?

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