I'm trying to finish up a basic A&G set and need the following cards. I have tons of basic cards and a few SP's available. Let me know what you can help me with.
<< <i>V-Mart over on the Beckett Forum has posted some compelling math on the print runs of the various card sizes and variations by extrapolating Topps' print run information.
Base Normal Size: 21,400 of each card Normal Size SPs: 2,675 of each card
A&G back minis: 1,070 Black border minis: 535 Regular back SP minis: 412 Gray back minis from rip cards: 98 or 100 (Topps apparently didn't print the Delmon Young rip cards) A&G back SP minis: 83 Regular back minis with No #: 50 Black border SP minis: 42
Apparently, if a card is short-printed in the regular, base set, it's also short printed for each mini type too.
What I find interesting is that black border SP minis are less populous than regular no-# backs, the A&G back SPs, and the gray backs from rip cards... and yet the gray backs tend to fetch $10-30 on avg while there isn't much premium for black border SPs yet.
Think about it: 98 people could theoretically put together a full gray back set, and 50 people could compile a no-# back set, but only 42 people will ever complete a black border mini set. That's wild!
It's also nice to realize that Topps hasn't "overproduced" with this set. >>
This is great information. Thanks for forwarding it along. However, I do not think the initial information on the # of base cards is correct. I've not done the math but just looking at my stacks of cards things do not seem to correlate. If there are 21,400 of each non SP card then that would equate to 6,420,000 cards (300 x 21,400). If there are only 2675 of each SP card then there are only 133,750 SP cards (50 x 2675). Based on this breakdown there would be about 48 non SP cards for every SP card. With SP's being inserted 1 out of every 2 packs this can not be right. A ratio of about 1:10 would be closer. Has there been a correction in the numbers listed on this other board? I hope the mini data is right because I really appreciate the effort that somebody has put into figuring all this out for us.
And yes, when not engrossed in my collection I am an engineer.
Learn some history of the game. Join a vintage base ball team in your area and get out there. Simsbury Taverneers My PSA Sets
Here is the original thread: Original Thread. I copied most of the info and added a bit more. This is more readable to me, but you be the judge.
Regular: Base /21,400 SP Base /2,675
Mini: Base /4,944 SP Base /412 A&G Back /1,070 A&G back SP/83 Black Border/535 Black Border SP/42 No # Back /50 Bazooka Back /25 Gray Backs /98 Flags /3,121 Snake: /1,300 Emperor /2600
Currently Buying: 2004 Tommie Harris SPX Printing Plate (White Whale will pay top $$$) 1994 SP Football Die Cuts PSA 10s
The general population doesn't know this. Bonds no number cards sell for 70 bucks, while the rarer black mini sp sells for somtimes as low as 14 bucks!
LOL Mosaic , I agree but it's all pretty much an addiction , once we find a product we really like , we're off to the races .
I love these cards and while I love them, for some reason my wife hates them .
My son is with me though, he loves them . My only problem is with holding them , I get really filthy at work and can take me up to a half an hour to get all of the grime off my hands before I will even attempt to handle these cards .
It's even gotten to the point where sometimes I'm looking through them and in the back of my mind thinking . . ." Did I get it all off ?"
" Are my hands really dry, they feel a little damp now "
Folks, there are some errors in your mini parallel calculations.
consider this:
There are 50 sp's and 300 normal prints.
The ratio of sp to normal would therefore be 1:6 IF all 350 cards were printed equally. When printed equally, if given any uniformly random distribution of 7 cards, 1 would be from the list of 50 magic numbers, and 6 would be from the other 300. However, we know that the SP's are NOT printed equally, hence their name - SHORT prints.
It is my contention that short prints - for ALL types of parallels and normal size - are printed EXACTLY HALF as much as their non-sp counterparts. In other words the print run for a full-print is 1000, the printrun for a short-print is 500.
Remember, even without any short printing, your odds are still 1:6 you will get a card from ANY pre-selected random group of 50 card numbers. You get 1 mini per pack. The fact that the stated odds are 1:13 for mini SP parallels indicates that if you have 14 packs, 1 pack will have an sp mini and 13 will have normal minis.
Given there are ~1.8 million packs (maybe as many as 2 million but lets just assume the worst), there are 180,000 black parallels since they are seeded approximately 1 in 10 packs. The actualy number could be 1 in 9.0001 all the way to 1 in 10.999 and Topps could probably get away with stating its 1:10. But let's suppose they are more or less correct.
Of those 180,000 black parallels, there must be 1:13 ratio of sp to normal (stated odds are 1:130 from ANY pack, so the odds from our pre-selected 180,000 "black packs" are 1:13 - which is identical to the full-print to short-print sp ratio of ANY parallel).
Working backwards, of those 180,000 black parallels, there must be 554 of each of the 300 cards and 277 of each short print:
554 x 300 = 166,200 277 x 50 = 13,850 ----------- 180,050
13,850 black sp's out of 1.8 million packs is 0 packs out of 1.8 million is roughly 1:129.96 168,000 packs out of 1.8 million is rougly 1:10.71
So black SPs are tough, no doubt, but not QUITE as tough as V-Mart states, but black non-sp's are tougher than may be expected.
im debating on telling him he has to suck it up... he should have known 5 days ago if he could buy it. not wait until the last day of the auction when a bid cancellation will make people suspicious. only has 4 feedback... i was afreaid of that the first time i saw him bid.
or maybe not even replying to his request. since he waited 5 days maybe i should to?
White Whales: 1996 Select Certified Mirror Gold Ozzie Smith 2006 Bowman Chrome Orange Refractor Chris Carpenter
I'm trying to understand some of the math regarding populations on this site and came across a realization today. The stated odds on the back of Retail Packs are DIFFERENT than the stated odds on the back of Blaster Packs. I'd like to get the stated odds on Hobby Packs so that I can do some comparisons. Can somebody provide me the stated odds on the back of a Hobby Pack Wrapper?
Thanks in advance.
Brian (the engineer)
Learn some history of the game. Join a vintage base ball team in your area and get out there. Simsbury Taverneers My PSA Sets
The first difference is the no numbers are 1:106 in hobby 1:108 in retail. The wood parallels do not appear on retail packs, but I have head of them being pulled. All other minis are the same or close to it Kevin
I have yet to open any retail blasters. Does anyone know if they are good breaks like the past years Heritage Blasters. I have always had good luck with the Blasters at Target.
Zep, I do not know for a fact that the ratio of sp to non-sp are 1:2, but I am pretty confident based on the math that it is very close to that. If its not 2:1 its probably close like 18:10 or 22:10.
<< <i>The first difference is the no numbers are 1:106 in hobby 1:108 in retail. The wood parallels do not appear on retail packs, but I have head of them being pulled. All other minis are the same or close to it Kevin >>
I'd like to get all the stated odds. The Group A Relic category is significantly different between Blaster Retail and Retail. This should help identify the number of packs that were created in each format which will be necessary to identify the total number of mini's that exist. I've seen numbers here between 1.8 million and 2.2 million. I prefer to do the math myself. So, if somebody can provide the entire odds for a Hobby pack I would greatly appreciate it.
Learn some history of the game. Join a vintage base ball team in your area and get out there. Simsbury Taverneers My PSA Sets
The meijer by me sucks. I've never gotten a good card from them from heritage or the 1 blaster A&G that I bought.
I have not seen single packs at all from any Meijer's here in Michigan.
Where is the one you went to? >>
One?
I've been to pretty much all of them in the Lansing area--Saginaw Hwy, Pennsylvania Ave, Grand Ledge, East Lansing, and Okemos.
Each store has A&G in some form. Grand Ledge, Saginaw Hwy, and East Lansing have retail boxes (near toys and at one purchase aisle), Pennsylvania Ave has blasters, and Okemos has both. Originally, Grand Ledge and Saginaw Hwy stores had blasters, but they were gradually cleaned out.
Cost is slightly higher than at Wal-Mart and Target--$3.19/pack and $21.99/blaster, instead of 2.99/19.99.
FYI, Target Stores were cleaned out day one. Wal-Mart has been slow to put them out, only the Okemos location has some (blasters).
As you can see, my addiction to Allen & Ginter is unsafe... and has led me to every superstore within 20 miles.
I already did the math pages ago if anyone wants to see it. I only have a retail pack and it says that the group A relic is 1:363,264. I think PR is twice that at 726K retail packs. This would make the retail PR of the Pujols auto at 6 and the Washington Relic at 2. Beckett wrote an article saying how many Washington's there were but I won't find that out until tomorrow.
<< <i>I already did the math pages ago if anyone wants to see it. I only have a retail pack and it says that the group A relic is 1:363,264. I think PR is twice that at 726K retail packs. This would make the retail PR of the Pujols auto at 6 and the Washington Relic at 2. Beckett wrote an article saying how many Washington's there were but I won't find that out until tomorrow.
Kevin >>
My theory is that there is one Washington in Retail packs, one Washington in Hobby packs and one Washington in Blasters. I need the rest of the odds to make the complete calculations for the cut autos, etc. to see if they add up. I did look at your math a few pages ago and felt everything was off by a factor of 2 but since I didn't have the information I blindly accepted it. I usually don't do that and since I've seen so many different calculations on this board I want to do the math myself. That is the only way I will feel comfortable with the numbers.
Learn some history of the game. Join a vintage base ball team in your area and get out there. Simsbury Taverneers My PSA Sets
hmmmm. I didn't realize that the packs in retail boxes (24 packs) are different than blasters...it has never been that way. The pack that I have is from a blaster box. So retail odds on the Washington is only 1: 363,000 while hobby is 1: 1,160,000.....just cause there are more hobby packs out there right?
<< <i>hmmmm. I didn't realize that the packs in retail boxes (24 packs) are different than blasters...it has never been that way. The pack that I have is from a blaster box. So retail odds on the Washington is only 1: 363,000 while hobby is 1: 1,160,000.....just cause there are more hobby packs out there right?
Kevin >>
The odds are definately different on Blaster versus Retail. I have wrappers for both sitting in front of me and there are significant differences on the long odds. Mini's and common auto's & relics pull at about the same rate. I still want to see the odds for hobby packs and complete the math before I can say with any confidence how many of each card exist and in which format.
Still looking for the stated odds on Hobby packs. Anyone who busted a case still have a wrapper around?
Learn some history of the game. Join a vintage base ball team in your area and get out there. Simsbury Taverneers My PSA Sets
Wish I could help, but I've only opened Blasters and Retail packs. Your numbers sound good, from everything I remember from STATS classes. The only thing I'm not sure about is the assumtion that the SP's are half of the regular prints. It makes sense but I would love to have some kinda' conformation on that.
Somebody help him out with the hobby odds!
"The Sipe market is ridiculous right now" CDsNuts, 1/9/15
<< <i>I thought I gave you the hobby odds..what do you need?
Kevin >>
I'd like to get all the odds if you can provide them. Mini's, relics, AROD's, Autographs, etc. I'm trying to put this together into a nice spreadsheet that clearly spells out what exists and in which product.
Thanks, and did I mention that in addition to being an engineer I also have an MBA? Numbers are something I can feel comfortable with.
Brian
Learn some history of the game. Join a vintage base ball team in your area and get out there. Simsbury Taverneers My PSA Sets
Just went out and bought my first box and I am hooked. Does anyone know where I can find pages to keep the mini's in. I am looking to complete the set. Any help would be greatly appreciated.
<< <i>Here is the original thread: Original Thread. I copied most of the info and added a bit more. This is more readable to me, but you be the judge.
Regular: Base /21,400 SP Base /2,675
Mini: Base /4,944 SP Base /412 A&G Back /1,070 A&G back SP/83 Black Border/535 Black Border SP/42 No # Back /50 Bazooka Back /25 Gray Backs /98 Flags /3,121 Snake: /1,300 Emperor /2600 >>
OK,
I found the odds for Hobby and have started to dig into the numbers. In a nutshell the information above is totally worthless. First, let me explain why the number of Standard, Black and A&G SP mini's are wrong. I'll get into more details regarding relics and autographs later.
For black border mini's, there is one standard black border in every 10 packs. SP Black Borders are 1:130. Sounds like the SP's are 13X more scarce than the standards. This is WRONG!!!
This is wrong because there are also 1/6th as many SP's as there are standard (50 versus 300). So, in reality they are more scarce but only by a factor of 13/6. If the number of 535 above is correct then there would be 535/(13/6) as many of the SP's or 247 of each card. Many more than the No Numbered versions. I'm sure I lost a few of you there but trust me, the same math works for the S&G mini's and the regular mini's. You can't take the quantity of standard mini's and divide by 13 because there are a lot more of the standard mini's than the SP's.
To simplify this a bit. If Black Border SP's come 1 in every 10 packs you would need to open 3000 packs (300 * 10) in order to get enough cards to have enough for a set. The SP's are 1 in every 130 packs so you would need to open 6500 packs (50 * 130) in order to get enough SP cards to have enough for a set. For A&G backs the numbers would be 1500 and 3250.
Now, if you wanted to put together a No Number Mini set you would need to open up 37,800 packs (350 * 108) in order to have enough cards for your set. On the bright side, you would have 5 sets of black borders and 10 sets of A&G's in addition to about 50 regular mini sets plus a ton of trade material.
If anybody wants to trade me their No Number Mini's for my black SP's, let me know.
I'm still trying to make Topps stated odds add up for the Washington Relics and the Cut Signature cards with some success. It is pretty obvious that there are a total of 3 Washington cards and that is it. I have a few theories why things don't equate nice and neat but the relative scarcity of mini's is very easy to figure out. The odds are very consistant across all product.
Learn some history of the game. Join a vintage base ball team in your area and get out there. Simsbury Taverneers My PSA Sets
Yes, mine is due Friday. My Blaster case is being shipped out today, so who knows. The biggest problem is he is sending it to my house when I requested it to my work address. Got some 'splaining to do to the wife if she catches it.
you can get 15 pocket pages from ultra-pro - they work perfectly...my local shop has them for $15 per 100. they are also available online at different places.
My cases from Lockwood came yesterday, but I wasn't there to pick them up (you need a signature), so I have to go to the UPS depot tonight to get them.
41GoudeyGuy - thanks, you have basically re-confirmed my assessment as well. One subtlety - an sp is at best only 1/7th of the print run; 50 is 1/7th of 350. But you are spot - on: the ratio of sp's to regular is between 6/13 - 7/13 (which was basically my premise).
Stated odds of 1:13 means that in 13 packs you will get 1 item and 12 with non-items - whichever item that may be. Consider that the print run for an SP is exactly HALF. Therefore a sheet of 50 SP's are printed for every two sheets of 300 that are printed. (I know the sheets might not be that size, but for sake of argument consider the whole print run is on a sheet).
Blacks are seeded 1:10...so in 10 packs you'll get 1 black and 9 non-blacks. Now consider you have perfectly sorted then entire printrun so that you only packs and every one has just one black. The odds are now 1:1 that you'll get a black...and they are 1:13 you will get a black sp - just like the ratio for all sp's (1:13). In order for this to be true, There MUST be 50 sp's for every 600 non-sp's. There are 13 packs, and 12 of them will have the non-sp's, and 1 will have the sp.
So, the final analysis is that the SP to non-SP print run ratio is EXACTLY 50%. Its the only way the math works out to a seed ratio of 1:13....and in the end it makes intuitive sense that topps would just cut the sp printing in half.
Now to know the total print run you have to extrapolate based on stated odds, and knowing on the long odds how many are seeded per hobby / retail / blaster packs.... so press on with your math. But also remember when they state the odds, they round to the nearest pack so consider when extrapolating backwards both a hi and lo side.
Comments
<< <i>fur72,
i'd be interested in the tommie smith relic. my trade list is on page 26 of this thread. >>
I have card 119 and the Scott Rolen SR2
I need about 50 minis to complete so I'd love to trade that way if possible.
2004 Tommie Harris SPX Printing Plate (White Whale will pay top $$$)
1994 SP Football Die Cuts PSA 10s
........you might want to include the extended minis that are found only in the rip cards - 25 of them IIRC, or is it 30?
Geordie >>
Those werent available in packs, so that isnt part of the master mini set to me. Just my opinon though.
I'm trying to finish up a basic A&G set and need the following cards. I have tons of basic cards and a few SP's available. Let me know what you can help me with.
Need list:
27, 40, 45, 48, 54, 57, 58, 63, 70, 81, 87, 88, 91, 97, 129, 131, 134, 144, 146, 164, 166, 182, 189, 190, 201, 205, 219, 233, 236, 241, 257, 284, 289, 296, 301, 307, 308, 321, 332, 348.
I also need the Perez #20 card.
Available SP's:
107, 119, 193, 194, 243, 309 x2, 317, 318 x2, 319, 320, 322, 325, 327 x2, 330, 335 x2, 339, 340
Thanks all.
Brian
Simsbury Taverneers
My PSA Sets
<< <i>V-Mart over on the Beckett Forum has posted some compelling math on the print runs of the various card sizes and variations by extrapolating Topps' print run information.
Base Normal Size: 21,400 of each card
Normal Size SPs: 2,675 of each card
A&G back minis: 1,070
Black border minis: 535
Regular back SP minis: 412
Gray back minis from rip cards: 98 or 100 (Topps apparently didn't print the Delmon Young rip cards)
A&G back SP minis: 83
Regular back minis with No #: 50
Black border SP minis: 42
Apparently, if a card is short-printed in the regular, base set, it's also short printed for each mini type too.
What I find interesting is that black border SP minis are less populous than regular no-# backs, the A&G back SPs, and the gray backs from rip cards... and yet the gray backs tend to fetch $10-30 on avg while there isn't much premium for black border SPs yet.
Think about it: 98 people could theoretically put together a full gray back set, and 50 people could compile a no-# back set, but only 42 people will ever complete a black border mini set. That's wild!
It's also nice to realize that Topps hasn't "overproduced" with this set. >>
This is great information. Thanks for forwarding it along. However, I do not think the initial information on the # of base cards is correct. I've not done the math but just looking at my stacks of cards things do not seem to correlate. If there are 21,400 of each non SP card then that would equate to 6,420,000 cards (300 x 21,400). If there are only 2675 of each SP card then there are only 133,750 SP cards (50 x 2675). Based on this breakdown there would be about 48 non SP cards for every SP card. With SP's being inserted 1 out of every 2 packs this can not be right. A ratio of about 1:10 would be closer. Has there been a correction in the numbers listed on this other board? I hope the mini data is right because I really appreciate the effort that somebody has put into figuring all this out for us.
And yes, when not engrossed in my collection I am an engineer.
Simsbury Taverneers
My PSA Sets
Regular:
Base /21,400
SP Base /2,675
Mini:
Base /4,944
SP Base /412
A&G Back /1,070
A&G back SP/83
Black Border/535
Black Border SP/42
No # Back /50
Bazooka Back /25
Gray Backs /98
Flags /3,121
Snake: /1,300
Emperor /2600
2004 Tommie Harris SPX Printing Plate (White Whale will pay top $$$)
1994 SP Football Die Cuts PSA 10s
Kevin
I love these cards and while I love them, for some reason my wife hates them .
My son is with me though, he loves them .
My only problem is with holding them , I get really filthy at work and can take me up to a half an hour to get all of the grime off my hands before I will even attempt to handle these cards .
It's even gotten to the point where sometimes I'm looking through them and in the back of my mind thinking . . ." Did I get it all off ?"
" Are my hands really dry, they feel a little damp now "
FREAKING !!!
consider this:
There are 50 sp's and 300 normal prints.
The ratio of sp to normal would therefore be 1:6 IF all 350 cards were printed equally. When printed equally, if given any uniformly random distribution of 7 cards, 1 would be from the list of 50 magic numbers, and 6 would be from the other 300. However, we know that the SP's are NOT printed equally, hence their name - SHORT prints.
It is my contention that short prints - for ALL types of parallels and normal size - are printed EXACTLY HALF as much as their non-sp counterparts. In other words the print run for a full-print is 1000, the printrun for a short-print is 500.
Remember, even without any short printing, your odds are still 1:6 you will get a card from ANY pre-selected random group of 50 card numbers. You get 1 mini per pack. The fact that the stated odds are 1:13 for mini SP parallels indicates that if you have 14 packs, 1 pack will have an sp mini and 13 will have normal minis.
Given there are ~1.8 million packs (maybe as many as 2 million but lets just assume the worst), there are 180,000 black parallels since they are seeded approximately 1 in 10 packs. The actualy number could be 1 in 9.0001 all the way to 1 in 10.999 and Topps could probably get away with stating its 1:10. But let's suppose they are more or less correct.
Of those 180,000 black parallels, there must be 1:13 ratio of sp to normal (stated odds are 1:130 from ANY pack, so the odds from our pre-selected 180,000 "black packs" are 1:13 - which is identical to the full-print to short-print sp ratio of ANY parallel).
Working backwards, of those 180,000 black parallels, there must be 554 of each of the 300 cards and 277 of each short print:
554 x 300 = 166,200
277 x 50 = 13,850
-----------
180,050
13,850 black sp's out of 1.8 million packs is 0 packs out of 1.8 million is roughly 1:129.96
168,000 packs out of 1.8 million is rougly 1:10.71
So black SPs are tough, no doubt, but not QUITE as tough as V-Mart states, but black non-sp's are tougher than may be expected.
Oh...and yes I am an engineer!
Topps Heritage - Trade Page
The meijer by me sucks. I've never gotten a good card from them from heritage or the 1 blaster A&G that I bought.
I have not seen single packs at all from any Meijer's here in Michigan.
Where is the one you went to?
Tim
What I need:
Regular Back Minis - 1, 2, 8, 9, 11, 12, 14, 16, 18, 19, 23, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 34, 35, 39, 42, 45, 47, 49, 53, 55, 59, 60, 61, 65, 66, 67, 78, 79, 81, 87, 88, 90, 91, 92, 93, 103, 106, 108, 109, 112, 115, 118, 121, 122, 127, 129, 133, 134, 136, 138, 139, 140, 142, 144, 145, 152, 154, 156, 165, 166, 168, 170, 172, 173, 175, 182, 186, 193, 196, 197, 198, 199, 200, 202, 209, 211, 215, 216, 218, 220, 222, 228, 236, 237, 239, 246, 247, 249, 251, 255, 256, 259, 261, 262, 269, 270, 272, 276, 283, 289, 291, 299, 301, 304, 305, 306, 313, 316, 325, 329, 331, 333, 337, 342, 344, and 348.
Snakes - Black Mamba and King Cobra.
Emporers - Julius, Tiberius, Nero, and Septimus.
Flags - Algeria, Austrailia, Columbia, Ecuador, Germany, Greenland, Iceland, Kenya, Mexico, Morocco, Panama, Russian Federation, and United States of America..
What I have available for trade:
Regular Back Minis - 6, 10, 13, 15, 24, 31, 36, 51, 62, 68, 70, 74, 76, 77, 84, 86, 97, 98, 99, 105, 111, 116, 120, 125, 128, 131, 132, 141, 143, 147, 151, 155, 160, 162, 176, 184, 187, 188, 190, 191, 195, 201, 208, 213, 221, 227, 234, 235, 240, 242, 245, 248, 250, 253, 258, 265, 268, 271, 284, 286, 287, 288, 292, 293, 294, 295, 296, 297, 298, 312, 315, 323, 324, 332, and 338.
Arods - 255, 256, 267, 270, and 275.
Snakes - None.
Emporers - Claudius and Marcus Aurelius.
Flags - Argentina, Dominican Republic, Greece, Honduras, Ireland, Indonesia, Jamaica, Nigeria, Peru, Spain, and Turkey.
your a-rod's went in the mail today. ley me know when they arrive
1996 Select Certified Mirror Gold Ozzie Smith
2006 Bowman Chrome Orange Refractor Chris Carpenter
Gonna sell a couple and would like to know if anyone wants to trade a full set of this years for a set of last years?
"please remove me from this auction as i will not be able to purchase the card.
thank you
- luther3in74"
i am not happy with this guy
1996 Select Certified Mirror Gold Ozzie Smith
2006 Bowman Chrome Orange Refractor Chris Carpenter
or maybe not even replying to his request. since he waited 5 days maybe i should to?
1996 Select Certified Mirror Gold Ozzie Smith
2006 Bowman Chrome Orange Refractor Chris Carpenter
your cards went out this morning.
also, thanks for the advice.
1996 Select Certified Mirror Gold Ozzie Smith
2006 Bowman Chrome Orange Refractor Chris Carpenter
Thnx and good luck
Tom
I'm trying to understand some of the math regarding populations on this site and came across a realization today. The stated odds on the back of Retail Packs are DIFFERENT than the stated odds on the back of Blaster Packs. I'd like to get the stated odds on Hobby Packs so that I can do some comparisons. Can somebody provide me the stated odds on the back of a Hobby Pack Wrapper?
Thanks in advance.
Brian (the engineer)
Simsbury Taverneers
My PSA Sets
being pulled. All other minis are the same or close to it
Kevin
- jim
Topps Heritage - Trade Page
<< <i>After some good trades with some great guys, here is the updated list.
What I need:
Regular Back Minis - 1, 2, 8, 9, 11, 12, 14, 16, 18, 19, 23, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 34, 35, 39, 42, 45, 47, 49, 53, 55, 59, 60, 61, 65, 66, 67, 78, 79, 81, 87, 88, 90, 91, 92, 93, 103, 106, 108, 109, 112, 115, 118, 121, 122, 127, 129, 133, 134, 136, 138, 139, 140, 142, 144, 145, 152, 154, 156, 165, 166, 168, 170, 172, 173, 175, 182, 186, 193, 196, 197, 198, 199, 200, 202, 209, 211, 215, 216, 218, 220, 222, 228, 236, 237, 239, 246, 247, 249, 251, 255, 256, 259, 261, 262, 269, 270, 272, 276, 283, 289, 291, 299, 301, 304, 305, 306, 313, 316, 325, 329, 331, 333, 337, 342, 344, and 348.
Snakes - Black Mamba and King Cobra.
Emporers - Julius, Tiberius, Nero, and Septimus.
Flags - Algeria, Austrailia, Columbia, Ecuador, Germany, Greenland, Iceland, Kenya, Mexico, Morocco, Panama, Russian Federation, and United States of America..
What I have available for trade:
Regular Back Minis - 6, 10, 13, 15, 24, 31, 36, 51, 62, 68, 70, 74, 76, 77, 84, 86, 97, 98, 99, 105, 111, 116, 120, 125, 128, 131, 132, 141, 143, 147, 151, 155, 160, 162, 176, 184, 187, 188, 190, 191, 195, 201, 208, 213, 221, 227, 234, 235, 240, 242, 245, 248, 250, 253, 258, 265, 268, 271, 284, 286, 287, 288, 292, 293, 294, 295, 296, 297, 298, 312, 315, 323, 324, 332, and 338.
Arods - 255, 256, 267, 270, and 275.
Snakes - None.
Emporers - Claudius and Marcus Aurelius.
Flags - Argentina, Dominican Republic, Greece, Honduras, Ireland, Indonesia, Jamaica, Nigeria, Peru, Spain, and Turkey. >>
Sending pm, I have a bunch of regular back you need.
<< <i>The first difference is the no numbers are 1:106 in hobby 1:108 in retail. The wood parallels do not appear on retail packs, but I have head of them
being pulled. All other minis are the same or close to it
Kevin >>
I'd like to get all the stated odds. The Group A Relic category is significantly different between Blaster Retail and Retail. This should help identify the number of packs that were created in each format which will be necessary to identify the total number of mini's that exist. I've seen numbers here between 1.8 million and 2.2 million. I prefer to do the math myself. So, if somebody can provide the entire odds for a Hobby pack I would greatly appreciate it.
Simsbury Taverneers
My PSA Sets
<< <i>NewHeritageCollector aka Tim said:
The meijer by me sucks. I've never gotten a good card from them from heritage or the 1 blaster A&G that I bought.
I have not seen single packs at all from any Meijer's here in Michigan.
Where is the one you went to? >>
One?
I've been to pretty much all of them in the Lansing area--Saginaw Hwy, Pennsylvania Ave, Grand Ledge, East Lansing, and Okemos.
Each store has A&G in some form. Grand Ledge, Saginaw Hwy, and East Lansing have retail boxes (near toys and at one purchase aisle), Pennsylvania Ave has blasters, and Okemos has both. Originally, Grand Ledge and Saginaw Hwy stores had blasters, but they were gradually cleaned out.
Cost is slightly higher than at Wal-Mart and Target--$3.19/pack and $21.99/blaster, instead of 2.99/19.99.
FYI, Target Stores were cleaned out day one. Wal-Mart has been slow to put them out, only the Okemos location has some (blasters).
As you can see, my addiction to Allen & Ginter is unsafe... and has led me to every superstore within 20 miles.
mosaic's Nolan Ryan Basic Topps registry set
mosaic's Big 3 Nolan Ryan Run Showcase
PR is twice that at 726K retail packs. This would make the retail PR of the Pujols auto at 6 and the Washington Relic at 2. Beckett wrote
an article saying how many Washington's there were but I won't find that out until tomorrow.
Kevin
<< <i>I already did the math pages ago if anyone wants to see it. I only have a retail pack and it says that the group A relic is 1:363,264. I think
PR is twice that at 726K retail packs. This would make the retail PR of the Pujols auto at 6 and the Washington Relic at 2. Beckett wrote
an article saying how many Washington's there were but I won't find that out until tomorrow.
Kevin >>
My theory is that there is one Washington in Retail packs, one Washington in Hobby packs and one Washington in Blasters. I need the rest of the odds to make the complete calculations for the cut autos, etc. to see if they add up. I did look at your math a few pages ago and felt everything was off by a factor of 2 but since I didn't have the information I blindly accepted it. I usually don't do that and since I've seen so many different calculations on this board I want to do the math myself. That is the only way I will feel comfortable with the numbers.
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blaster box. So retail odds on the Washington is only 1: 363,000 while hobby is 1: 1,160,000.....just cause there are more hobby packs out there right?
Kevin
What I need:
Regular Back Minis - 1, 2, 11, 12, 14, 16, 19, 23, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 35, 39, 42, 49, 53, 55, 60, 61, 65, 67, 78, 88, 90, 91, 103, 106, 108, 115, 118, 121, 127, 129, 133, 136, 138, 139, 140, 142, 144, 145, 154, 156, 165, 168, 170, 172, 193, 196, 197, 198, 199, 200, 211, 218, 220, 228, 236, 237, 239, 246, 249, 251, 256, 259, 261, 269, 270, 272, 276, 283, 291, 299, 301, 304, 313, 329, 331, 333, 342, and 344.
Snakes - Black Mamba and King Cobra.
Emporers - Julius, Tiberius and Septimus.
Flags - Algeria, Austrailia, Columbia, Germany, Greenland, Iceland, Kenya, Morocco, Panama, Russian Federation, and United States of America..
What I have available for trade:
Regular Back Minis - 6, 10, 13, 24, 31, 33, 51, 54, 68, 70, 74, 76, 77, 84, 86, 97, 105, 111, 120, 125, 131, 132, 141, 143, 147, 151, 157, 158, 160, 176, 184, 187, 190, 195, 205, 213, 221, 223, 234, 238, 240, 242, 248, 250, 253, 258, 265, 266, 267, 268, 271, 278, 286, 287, 288, 293, 294, 295, 296, 297, 298, 311, 315, 323, 324, 332, and 338.
Arods - 255, 256, 263, 266, 267, 270, 273, and 275.
Snakes - None.
Emporers - Claudius and Marcus Aurelius.
Flags - Argentina, Belgium, Dominican Republic, Greece, Honduras, Ireland, Indonesia, Jamaica, Nigeria, Peru, Spain, and Turkey.
<< <i>hmmmm. I didn't realize that the packs in retail boxes (24 packs) are different than blasters...it has never been that way. The pack that I have is from a
blaster box. So retail odds on the Washington is only 1: 363,000 while hobby is 1: 1,160,000.....just cause there are more hobby packs out there right?
Kevin >>
The odds are definately different on Blaster versus Retail. I have wrappers for both sitting in front of me and there are significant differences on the long odds. Mini's and common auto's & relics pull at about the same rate. I still want to see the odds for hobby packs and complete the math before I can say with any confidence how many of each card exist and in which format.
Still looking for the stated odds on Hobby packs. Anyone who busted a case still have a wrapper around?
Simsbury Taverneers
My PSA Sets
Your numbers sound good, from everything I remember from STATS classes. The only thing I'm not sure about is the assumtion that the SP's are half of the regular prints. It makes sense but I would love to have some kinda' conformation on that.
Somebody help him out with the hobby odds!
CDsNuts, 1/9/15
<< <i>I still have some hobby wrappers, but don't have them with me right now. I can post what you need later today if no one else does sooner. >>
That would be great. I'm real anxious to dig into this and do the math myself. Please post the odds when you get your hands on a wrapper.
Brian
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Kevin
<< <i>I thought I gave you the hobby odds..what do you need?
Kevin >>
I'd like to get all the odds if you can provide them. Mini's, relics, AROD's, Autographs, etc. I'm trying to put this together into a nice spreadsheet that clearly spells out what exists and in which product.
Thanks, and did I mention that in addition to being an engineer I also have an MBA? Numbers are something I can feel comfortable with.
Brian
Simsbury Taverneers
My PSA Sets
keep the mini's in. I am looking to complete the set. Any help would be greatly appreciated.
<< <i>Here is the original thread: Original Thread. I copied most of the info and added a bit more. This is more readable to me, but you be the judge.
Regular:
Base /21,400
SP Base /2,675
Mini:
Base /4,944
SP Base /412
A&G Back /1,070
A&G back SP/83
Black Border/535
Black Border SP/42
No # Back /50
Bazooka Back /25
Gray Backs /98
Flags /3,121
Snake: /1,300
Emperor /2600 >>
OK,
I found the odds for Hobby and have started to dig into the numbers. In a nutshell the information above is totally worthless. First, let me explain why the number of Standard, Black and A&G SP mini's are wrong. I'll get into more details regarding relics and autographs later.
For black border mini's, there is one standard black border in every 10 packs. SP Black Borders are 1:130. Sounds like the SP's are 13X more scarce than the standards. This is WRONG!!!
This is wrong because there are also 1/6th as many SP's as there are standard (50 versus 300). So, in reality they are more scarce but only by a factor of 13/6. If the number of 535 above is correct then there would be 535/(13/6) as many of the SP's or 247 of each card. Many more than the No Numbered versions. I'm sure I lost a few of you there but trust me, the same math works for the S&G mini's and the regular mini's. You can't take the quantity of standard mini's and divide by 13 because there are a lot more of the standard mini's than the SP's.
To simplify this a bit. If Black Border SP's come 1 in every 10 packs you would need to open 3000 packs (300 * 10) in order to get enough cards to have enough for a set. The SP's are 1 in every 130 packs so you would need to open 6500 packs (50 * 130) in order to get enough SP cards to have enough for a set. For A&G backs the numbers would be 1500 and 3250.
Now, if you wanted to put together a No Number Mini set you would need to open up 37,800 packs (350 * 108) in order to have enough cards for your set. On the bright side, you would have 5 sets of black borders and 10 sets of A&G's in addition to about 50 regular mini sets plus a ton of trade material.
If anybody wants to trade me their No Number Mini's for my black SP's, let me know.
I'm still trying to make Topps stated odds add up for the Washington Relics and the Cut Signature cards with some success. It is pretty obvious that there are a total of 3 Washington cards and that is it. I have a few theories why things don't equate nice and neat but the relative scarcity of mini's is very easy to figure out. The odds are very consistant across all product.
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Yes, mine is due Friday. My Blaster case is being shipped out today, so who knows. The biggest problem is he is sending it to my house when I requested it to my work address. Got some 'splaining to do to the wife if she catches it.
Kurt
you can get 15 pocket pages from ultra-pro - they work perfectly...my local shop has them for $15 per 100.
they are also available online at different places.
My cases from Lockwood came yesterday, but I wasn't there to pick them up (you need a signature), so I have to go to the UPS depot tonight to get them.
Topps Heritage - Trade Page
Stated odds of 1:13 means that in 13 packs you will get 1 item and 12 with non-items - whichever item that may be. Consider that the print run for an SP is exactly HALF. Therefore a sheet of 50 SP's are printed for every two sheets of 300 that are printed. (I know the sheets might not be that size, but for sake of argument consider the whole print run is on a sheet).
Blacks are seeded 1:10...so in 10 packs you'll get 1 black and 9 non-blacks. Now consider you have perfectly sorted then entire printrun so that you only packs and every one has just one black. The odds are now 1:1 that you'll get a black...and they are 1:13 you will get a black sp - just like the ratio for all sp's (1:13). In order for this to be true, There MUST be 50 sp's for every 600 non-sp's. There are 13 packs, and 12 of them will have the non-sp's, and 1 will have the sp.
So, the final analysis is that the SP to non-SP print run ratio is EXACTLY 50%. Its the only way the math works out to a seed ratio of 1:13....and in the end it makes intuitive sense that topps would just cut the sp printing in half.
Now to know the total print run you have to extrapolate based on stated odds, and knowing on the long odds how many are seeded per hobby / retail / blaster packs.... so press on with your math. But also remember when they state the odds, they round to the nearest pack so consider when extrapolating backwards both a hi and lo side.
Topps Heritage - Trade Page
Haven't seen any at Great Lakes Crossing Meijer or Target in Auburn Hills.
Tim