<< <i>Interesting counterpoints from someone here who always seems to be obsessed with transparent and immature attempts at trying to impress others here. >>
WOOOO HOOOO!
Dr. Jupiter sounds more like Mr. Uranus.
Get a life will you? You have said the same inane comment since this thread began. Your shortcomings are abundantly evident now. You may go. G
<< <i>Interesting counterpoints from someone here who always seems to be obsessed with transparent and immature attempts at trying to impress others here.
To address the additional counterpoints here, they have all be strongly made by those with a powerful vested interest in expensive collections or those who make a living as a retail dealer in the market and are therefore highly biased. The fact remains that a significant number of owners of top level collections and very expensive rarities have chosen to cash out now and I believe it may be a long and painful summer for those bidding moon money at FUN. >>
WOOOO HOOOO!
Dr. Jupiter sounds more like Mr. Uranus.
Get a life will you? You have said the same inane comment since this thread began. Your shortcomings are abundantly evident now. You may go.
<< <i>To address the additional counterpoints here, they have all be strongly made by those with a powerful vested interest in expensive collections or those who make a living as a retail dealer in the market and are therefore highly biased. The fact remains that a significant number of owners of top level collections and very expensive rarities have chosen to cash out now and I believe it may be a long and painful summer for those bidding moon money at FUN. >>
Classic double speak - those who are closest to the situation and have inside knowledge are not to be trusted because they have the most to lose.
And you still haven't given any specific examples of 'smart money' cashing out. Nor answered why this FUN is different than last or the FUN before.
To address the additional counterpoints here, they have all be strongly made by those with a powerful vested interest in expensive collections or those who make a living as a retail dealer in the market and are therefore highly biased.
Just for the record, I am not a dealer nor do I have an expensive collection although I am working on one that I hope will be a neat set and will take me a few more years to complete. I suppose one's view of what is expensive is relative too isn't it?
I do have an Economics and graduate Finance degree. I have been involved in the business world for 30 years so I even have some experience under my belt through good times and bad.
The weight of evidence does not indicate a top to me. But if it were then I could possibly accomplish my goal a year or two sooner maybe if the quaility I am trying to find is available.
<< <i>I'm guessing that the previous peak in 1989 was when the Bass brothers were trying to corner the gold and silver market. Is that correct? >>
They were only doing silver, and it was nine years earlier.
Russ, NCNE >>
Exactly!
The 1989 "coin RUSH" was caused by Kidder Peabody and Merrill Lynch starting rare coin funds which created a buying frenzy among dealers and speculators hoping to sell them to these funds. The funds folded because of many reasons and many people were caught holding the bag.
<< I'm guessing that the previous peak in 1989 was when the Bass brothers were trying to corner the gold and silver market. Is that correct? >>
They were only doing silver, and it was nine years earlier.
And it was the Hunt brothers, not Bass.
What do 79-80 and 89-90 have in common? Both markets were fuelled by people buying things on the greater fool theory. These buyers ignored their own opinions of what values "should be" and instead focused on what values "could be".
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>If the "smart" individuals are cashing out, then why do I have three "smart"players who will EACH spend well in excess of $1,000,000.00 each in the FUN Sales? And these people are not buying widgets. In the case of two of them-they can pop off a few million (which they have previously) and not even flinch. This is all fact (TDN can verify that he knows these guys exist)-not made up. If the market were peaking, these guys wouldn't even be around. Because you do not see it directly, does not mean things are not happening. To say the market is peaking and "smart" money is selling-is NOT true period. >>
Questions:
1. What were these 3 big collectors buying in the 1997-2002 period?
2. If they are true collectors, why would these guys stop buying if the market was peaking? True collectors buy in all markets. They/we cannot help but do so -- it is an addiction.
FAMOUS NICKEL DOESN'T MEET AUCTION RESERVE THEN IS TRADED FOR HIGH-PROFILE WEATHER VANE Sophisticated collector/investor traded-up today in an unprecedented shift acquiring an historically significant, one-of-a-kind directional weather vane, the value of which is thought to be in the eight figure range. The proud new owner said "This fabulous weather vane is right up there with other important treasures I have had the pleasure of owning, and points to a new direction in my search for the finest in collectibles." Broker for the exchange said "In my humble opinion, this world famous piece enjoys inestimable value, and will be cherished for many years to come", and added that she was very proud to represent the ultimate collectors of the two genres.
<< <i>FAMOUS NICKEL DOESN'T MEET AUCTION RESERVE THEN IS TRADED FOR HIGH-PROFILE WEATHER VANE Sophisticated collector/investor traded-up today in an unprecedented shift acquiring an historically significant, one-of-a-kind directional weather vane, the value of which is thought to be in the eight figure range. The proud new owner said "This fabulous weather vane is right up there with other important treasures I have had the pleasure of owning, and points to a new direction in my search for the finest in collectibles." Broker for the exchange said "In my humble opinion, this world famous piece enjoys inestimable value, and will be cherished for many years to come", and added that she was very proud to represent the ultimate collectors of the two genres. >>
What do 79-80 and 89-90 have in common? Both markets were fueled by people buying things on the greater fool theory. These buyers ignored their own opinions of what values "should be" and instead focused on what values "could be".
Besides the brokerage houses getting involved, the low pops on all the newly slabbed coins offered a fairly tight market. Just a few years earlier there were 10X as many raw coins to choose from. Now there were only a fraction of that slabbed and available. It took time to bring that house down.
Let's also not forget that gold was a non-player in that market. Gold and commodities did their thing in the 1971-1980 market and are currently doing their thing in the 2000-???? market. Much more money available when commodities as a whole are ruling the roost. So in that respect 1988-1990 was much more "air" driven.
Can anyone recall where any major coin bull market ended at FUN? The last 2 busts occurred in April for the most part (tax time I guess). That alone is good news for FUN 2007.
But I do recall going to either the FUN 1988 or 1989 show and it was close to being dead from my point of view. In either case the market still moved up quite a bit from that point.
<<The appetitie for great coins is absoultely NOT been diminshed one bit. You think that bid of $1,840,000.00 for thre UHR on the Heritage site isn't real? >>
Yeah I think it isn't real. Bid back down to $1.2 million...
I have no idea where the market is going. However, I do know the following:
1) When the top tier TPGs made it difficult to get upgrades, wildly toned coins in series that don't have this kind of wild toning started 'mysteriously' appearing. And people almost got into fights to see who could pay more for them.
2) In the last three years, I have seen less and less material that interested me on the bourse floor at Long Beach, and I have been buying fewer and fewer coins.
3) Dealers who can't sell overpriced and / low end material for the grade on the floor are consigning more and more of it to major auction houses, hoping that they can get their prices in the midst of auction fervor.
4) An increasing number of people with more money than common sense are coming into numismatics.
5) A contact of mine who deals with many expensive coins on an almost daily basis says he has never seen so many people buying increasingly expensive pieces of plastic and don't have a clue about the quality (or lack thereof) of the coins (encased in such plastic).
6) An increasing number of people see speculating with large amounts of money in coins as an investment (see #4).
7) An increasing number of dealers, after trying to upgrade a coin several times, seem to believe that they can sell a coin in one grade (say MS 65) for the price of the next numerical grade above (in this case MS 66).
8) Due to the above, it is becoming increasingly apparent to more and more of us that numismatics is becoming more unsuitable as a hobby, because we cannot find value in coins which we want to complete whatever set we are working on. Ie., I don't think a cleaned AU 50 Type Bust $ that made it into a first generation TPG slab is worth between $8-$10K. In the last several years, I have put more money into my pension plan and my house, and less into coins. I see this trend continuing.
9) An increasing number of important people in numismatics believe that some artificially toned / cooked coins are market acceptable.
Lastly THINGS ARE DIFFERENT THIS TIME - NOT! This is what the people who bought internet stocks in 1999 were told. They were told that price earnings ratios did not matter, because prices were only going up. I saw the craziness before the crash in 1980. I also saw what was going on in 1989-1990.
When people who have more money than common sense get involved in an activity, it's not a good sign. I see people all of the time that touched gold in one activity who proceed to make idiots out themselves because they think they can do the same in an area where they have no expertise.
That being said, I don't know when the numismatic market will tank again. But it will, as do all other markets. "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it" Santanayev.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
I just read through this thread for the first time and have a couple of comments:
1. Registrycoin didn't get enough recognition for his hiqh quality weather vane post. Well done. 2. The people whose posts I normally agree with are not worried about a market top. 3. Two unnamed posters who have never posted anything previously that I liked are on the market top bandwagon. 4. Jay's "immature and transparent" attempts to impress other members seem to be working. And I thought I could trust him to say what was on his mind. 5. Jupiter, Please put your money where your mouth is and post or PM me your for sale list. I have a modest buy list and I know others here have a less modest one.
Don't foget the WSJ article. Next I hear there will be a GQ cover story. Harrison Ford will play the handsome yet ecclectic coin collector in the movie version. Still casting for the female lead. --jerry
<< <i>wildly toned coins in series that don't have this kind of wild toning started 'mysteriously' appearing. And people almost got into fights to see who could pay more for them. >>
You know I'm listening and we both have mentioned this many times. I do think a lot folks are wising up a bit now, and being more careful. Which is a good thing.
Please... Save The Stories, Just Answer My Questions, And Tell Me How Much!!!!!
Andy, Santa has come and gone! You will just have to wait until next year for your wish. Of course that means you will have to be angelic throughout the year. That means fantastic coin deals for all of your customers!
Even customer wannabes!
BTW, we also see that Saintguru was quoted in that WSJ article. Seems he is everywhere!
<<Can you kindly elaborate a bit on all of those new people that 99.9% of us don't know about? Are you under the impression that lots of new money is coming or planning to come into this market at FUN and beyond?>>
4. Jay's "immature and transparent" attempts to impress other members seem to be working. And I thought I could trust him to say what was on his mind.
notwilight (Jerry)--
Elaborate on this because I find it both unwarranted and untrue. How am I trying to "impress" anyone? Because Mr. Eureka wanted to talk about economic cycles being static? Am I transparent because I own Saints, yet I still am buying bigger and bigger coins while selling off lesser ones?
You and Jupiter need to back up what you say. What have I EVER said that makes my opinions and views untrustworthy? Cite ONE example. ONE.
I express exactly what I believe to be true on these boards. I have NO aganda other than to talk about coins and the coin market. If I was not bullish I would easily rectify that. I'd sell everything in a heartbeat and take my money. No sweat. I wouldn't have the slightest problem selling what I have. The only "problem" is that I don't WANT to sell them now. I love them and I think that they will be worth more in 10 years.
remember one thing......no one here is a sage or a genie. You're coin nerds. Act like it.
<< <i>I just read through this thread for the first time and have a couple of comments: 1. Registrycoin didn't get enough recognition for his hiqh quality weather vane post. Well done. 2. The people whose posts I normally agree with are not worried about a market top. 3. Two unnamed posters who have never posted anything previously that I liked are on the market top bandwagon. 4. Jay's "immature and transparent" attempts to impress other members seem to be working. And I thought I could trust him to say what was on his mind. 5. Jupiter, Please put your money where your mouth is and post or PM me your for sale list. I have a modest buy list and I know others here have a less modest one. --Jerry >>
It's been pointed out to me that my 4th point above isn't clear and it's worth clarifying because it could be interpreted exactly opposite of how I meant it. Another poster took a shot at Saintguru saying he makes "immature and transparent" attempts to impress others on the forum. In my opinion, Jay is first guy that comes to mind when I want to name someone who speaks exactly what he means to say. And he's the last one I'd name if I wanted someone trying to placate the masses in a popularity contest.
Jay doen't have to write anything to defend himself. But Jupiter makes statements without any supporting evidence to support his contentions. So I believe it is right of Jay to ask for support of Jupiter's positions or for him to just come out and say he just "believes it so".
FYI, I am selling my coins at FUN. With close to $10 million in value, my reasons for selling have NOTHING to do with market tops or bottoms. So I believe your assumptions, at least in my case, are incorrect. I am extremely bullish as gold hasn't even begun its major move and there are still big disbelievers like you LLOYD! We need you.....be skeptical and stay that way!
I suspect that FUN will be a spectactular show and if I am wrong it may only be a good show. Lots of new money supposedly entering the coin market from various areas.
That is not to say we won't have corrections and pullbacks as that is always healthy. So there you have it.....my opinion.....
If you want facts to support my position, look at our balance of trade deficit, budget deficit, credit extension, dependence on foreign investment, derivative exposure, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Medicare, Social Security, Democrats gaining power with gridlock in Washington. If you would like more, I will post again....
Many smart people have retired to homes free and clear at a young age, and they are bored with a stack of 100 dollar bills, there is nothing like staring at a 50K Pan-Pac for them---------------BigE
You're still buying all of us dinner, John. With American DOLLARS!!! Jay will be passing his cup around. Make sure you have some loose change to give him...
BTW, this FUN show will be very exciting. I expect it to be a blow-out - with many records. It has been another great year for my retired and pension clients, but I'm not so sure these stock gains are not just "watered" stock...
The weak will give in at the beginning of the year for a slight pull back in stocks and commodities. Then watch for a quick turn around as the big boys come and pick everything up for a bargain just as the market sky rockets again.
<< <i>Sheesh Jay, had to write a ton to defend yourself. Usually a signal of much guilt??? >>
Jay and I have exchanged quite a few PMs and I think we know each other pretty well. I am glad it bothered him that he thought I was taking a shot at him. My apologies. See my explanation in another post. --Jerry
<< <i>" you don't know what you're talking about, you are unqualified, you are saying stupid stuff, it's time to keep your mouth shut "
Interesting counterpoints from someone here who always seems to be obsessed with transparent and immature attempts at trying to impress others here.
To address the additional counterpoints here, they have all be strongly made by those with a powerful vested interest in expensive collections or those who make a living as a retail dealer in the market and are therefore highly biased. The fact remains that a significant number of owners of top level collections and very expensive rarities have chosen to cash out now and I believe it may be a long and painful summer for those bidding moon money at FUN. >>
You sub-elitist!! Another champion of the coin proletariat attacking those who made the fatal error of starting collections that are more expensive than yours. Listen Komrade...on one hand you credit the $$ sellers with knowing the top and you warn people that they are the ones to key off of; and then you reprimand the collectors keeping their $$ sets for having biased and self-serving interests. You can't butter your buscuit on both sides. It makes greasy fingerprints on coin.
"One thing is certain when it comes to the rare coin market, the only constant is change. Any move in the price of gold or in the inflation rate, or the long overdue correction in the stock market, or continued interest in the Statehood quarter program, could move the rare coin market in a big way. The market is a coiled spring. There is substantial potential for energetic growth. Looking at the trend from the mid-1970s, we see that the coin market is where it's supposed to be. We view the risk now as minimal. It does not appear that the rare coin market will be headed any lower, and given any external stimulus whatsoever, could easily make a strong upward move. Those patient investors with the wisdom to purchase near the bottom will be the ones who reap the reward at the top."
Maybe it isn't the end of the world, and the market just took a breather.
With all the coins coming up for sale at FUN, hopefully there will be strong demand to meet the strong supply.
<< <i>Those patient investors with the wisdom to purchase near the bottom will be the ones who reap the reward at the top >>
So are they saying that now is "near the bottom" or are they talking about the folks who bought a few years ago? Frankly, this is kind of like saying that the key to investing in anything is buy low sell high.
People have asked me to support my opinion with concrete facts, however there can be no absolute concrete facts to support a position in either direction in any thinly traded collectible oriented market, only perception, emotions, the herd mentality, a Ouigi Board, and the position of the planets.
If one is looking for some relevant information however I propose that many bull market runs in the past where prices have advanced so quickly have lasted only 2 or 3 years just like now and ended abruptly and turned ugly. I would propose that coin and bullion markets tend to show increases during times of rising interest rates such as we have had for the past 2 years and rates are now topped out and will probably be steady or on their way back down by mid to late 2007. I would propose that other bull markets in coins have ended nearly coinciding with a huge blow out auction which contained numerous tremendous classic rarities as top end collectors sell out to investors and speculators, I would propose that trees do not grow to the sky and the coin market has had a very large advance in the past few years in certain upper end areas that are overdue for a significant pullback and a long period of consolidation. I would propose that the overall economy is cooling off and real estate prices have peaked in most areas and overall commodity prices may also cool in 2007 including the metals which have also had a very strong run in the past 2 years and will not keep rising indefinately at this pace. I propose that too many people are very bullish on the coin market which in itself is a bad signal. I propose that that the upper eschelon of this market is now being supported by non numismatic dollars and wealthy trophy hunters who ultimately are weak money and will sell in droves at the first sign of a significant downturn. I propose that both oil and precious metals prices have seen their peaks in 2006 and the coin markets may follow them in a downward trend in 2007. I propose that many dealers and collectors will over extend themselves to buy coins at FUN thinking this market can only get better when exactly the opposite will occur and this will be a long a weak summer of 2007.
Well, so long as my treasured collection of perfectly circulated memorial cents is safe. I've painstakingly assembled it from circulation - would hate to see its value on the marketplace trounced!
I could have sworn I heard the same thing exactly a year ago, just before, and just after, the same Heritage FUN Sales.
And the beat goes on.......
Retired Collector & Dealer in Major Mint Error Coins & Currency since the 1960's.Co-Author of Whitman's "100 Greatest U.S. Mint Error Coins", and the Error Coin Encyclopedia, Vols., III & IV. Retired Authenticator for Major Mint Errors for PCGS. A 50+ Year PNG Member.A full-time numismatist since 1972, retired in 2022.
<< <i>People have asked me to support my opinion with concrete facts, however there can be no absolute concrete facts to support a position in either direction in any thinly traded collectible oriented market, only perception, emotions, the herd mentality, a Ouigi Board, and the position of the planets.
If one is looking for some relevant information however I propose that many bull market runs in the past where prices have advanced so quickly have lasted only 2 or 3 years just like now and ended abruptly and turned ugly. I would propose that coin and bullion markets tend to show increases during times of rising interest rates such as we have had for the past 2 years and rates are now topped out and will probably be steady or on their way back down by mid to late 2007. I would propose that other bull markets in coins have ended nearly coinciding with a huge blow out auction which contained numerous tremendous classic rarities as top end collectors sell out to investors and speculators, I would propose that trees do not grow to the sky and the coin market has had a very large advance in the past few years in certain upper end areas that are overdue for a significant pullback and a long period of consolidation. I would propose that the overall economy is cooling off and real estate prices have peaked in most areas and overall commodity prices may also cool in 2007 including the metals which have also had a very strong run in the past 2 years and will not keep rising indefinately at this pace. I propose that too many people are very bullish on the coin market which in itself is a bad signal. I propose that that the upper eschelon of this market is now being supported by non numismatic dollars and wealthy trophy hunters who ultimately are weak money and will sell in droves at the first sign of a significant downturn. I propose that both oil and precious metals prices have seen their peaks in 2006 and the coin markets may follow them in a downward trend in 2007. I propose that many dealers and collectors will over extend themselves to buy coins at FUN thinking this market can only get better when exactly the opposite will occur and this will be a long a weak summer of 2007. >>
I don't really agree with your point of view. I am sure others will chime in here.
Comments
<< <i>Interesting counterpoints from someone here who always seems to be obsessed with transparent and immature attempts at trying to impress others here. >>
WOOOO HOOOO!
Dr. Jupiter sounds more like Mr. Uranus.
Get a life will you? You have said the same inane comment since this thread began. Your shortcomings are abundantly evident now. You may go.
<< <i>Interesting counterpoints from someone here who always seems to be obsessed with transparent and immature attempts at trying to impress others here.
To address the additional counterpoints here, they have all be strongly made by those with a powerful vested interest in expensive collections or those who make a living as a retail dealer in the market and are therefore highly biased. The fact remains that a significant number of owners of top level collections and very expensive rarities have chosen to cash out now and I believe it may be a long and painful summer for those bidding moon money at FUN. >>
WOOOO HOOOO!
Dr. Jupiter sounds more like Mr. Uranus.
Get a life will you? You have said the same inane comment since this thread began. Your shortcomings are abundantly evident now. You may go.
<< <i>To address the additional counterpoints here, they have all be strongly made by those with a powerful vested interest in expensive collections or those who make a living as a retail dealer in the market and are therefore highly biased. The fact remains that a significant number of owners of top level collections and very expensive rarities have chosen to cash out now and I believe it may be a long and painful summer for those bidding moon money at FUN. >>
Classic double speak - those who are closest to the situation and have inside knowledge are not to be trusted because they have the most to lose.
And you still haven't given any specific examples of 'smart money' cashing out. Nor answered why this FUN is different than last or the FUN before.
Just for the record, I am not a dealer nor do I have an expensive collection although I am working on one that I hope will be a neat set and will take me a few more years to complete. I suppose one's view of what is expensive is relative too isn't it?
I do have an Economics and graduate Finance degree. I have been involved in the business world for 30 years so I even have some experience under my belt through good times and bad.
The weight of evidence does not indicate a top to me. But if it were then I could possibly accomplish my goal a year or two sooner maybe if the quaility I am trying to find is available.
Glenn
Website-Americana Rare Coin Inc
MARKET TOP
<< <i>I'm guessing that the previous peak in 1989 was when the Bass brothers were trying to corner the gold
and silver market. Is that correct? >>
They were only doing silver, and it was nine years earlier.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm guessing that the previous peak in 1989 was when the Bass brothers were trying to corner the gold
and silver market. Is that correct? >>
They were only doing silver, and it was nine years earlier.
Russ, NCNE >>
Exactly!
The 1989 "coin RUSH" was caused by Kidder Peabody and Merrill Lynch starting rare coin funds which created a buying frenzy among dealers and speculators hoping to sell them to these funds. The funds folded because of many reasons and many people were caught holding the bag.
Not even remotely similar.
and silver market. Is that correct? >>
They were only doing silver, and it was nine years earlier.
And it was the Hunt brothers, not Bass.
What do 79-80 and 89-90 have in common? Both markets were fuelled by people buying things on the greater fool theory. These buyers ignored their own opinions of what values "should be" and instead focused on what values "could be".
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm guessing that the previous peak in 1989 was when the Bass brothers were trying to corner the gold
and silver market. Is that correct? >>
They were only doing silver, and it was nine years earlier.
Russ, NCNE >>
Actually, it was the Hunt brothers
Edited to say: Oops, Andy beat me to it ...
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm guessing that the previous peak in 1989 was when the Bass brothers were trying to corner the gold
and silver market. Is that correct? >>
They were only doing silver, and it was nine years earlier.
Russ, NCNE >>
That .... and the fact it was the Hunt bothers.
Edited to add: Slow as usual .... no wonder I'm not smart money.
<< <i>If the "smart" individuals are cashing out, then why do I have three "smart"players who will EACH spend well in excess of $1,000,000.00 each in the FUN Sales? And these people are not buying widgets. In the case of two of them-they can pop off a few million (which they have previously) and not even flinch. This is all fact (TDN can verify that he knows these guys exist)-not made up. If the market were peaking, these guys wouldn't even be around. Because you do not see it directly, does not mean things are not happening. To say the market is peaking and "smart" money is selling-is NOT true period. >>
Questions:
1. What were these 3 big collectors buying in the 1997-2002 period?
2. If they are true collectors, why would these guys stop buying if the market was peaking? True collectors buy in all markets. They/we cannot help but do so -- it is an addiction.
Coin Rarities Online
Sophisticated collector/investor traded-up today in an unprecedented shift acquiring an historically significant, one-of-a-kind directional weather vane, the value of which is thought to be in the eight figure range. The proud new owner said "This fabulous weather vane is right up there with other important treasures I have had the pleasure of owning, and points to a new direction in my search for the finest in collectibles." Broker for the exchange said "In my humble opinion, this world famous piece enjoys inestimable value, and will be cherished for many years to come", and added that she was very proud to represent the ultimate collectors of the two genres.
Andy - I thought the market in 1989-90 was fueled by everyone wanting to go to Iraj's parties...
How come Heritage has not thrown any of those kind of parties ?
I dread that cheap Tex-Mex food that they seem to serve.
Stewart
<< <i>Andy - I thought the market in 1989-90 was fueled by everyone wanting to go to Iraj's parties...
How come Heritage has not thrown any of those kind of parties ?
I dread that cheap Tex-Mex food that they seem to serve.
Stewart >>
You eat like a 10 year old anyway. Just take the free food and eat it, huh?
<< <i>
<< <i>Andy - I thought the market in 1989-90 was fueled by everyone wanting to go to Iraj's parties...
How come Heritage has not thrown any of those kind of parties ?
I dread that cheap Tex-Mex food that they seem to serve.
Stewart >>
You eat like a 10 year old anyway. Just take the free food and eat it, huh?
and off come the gloves..............
<< <i>FAMOUS NICKEL DOESN'T MEET AUCTION RESERVE THEN IS TRADED FOR HIGH-PROFILE WEATHER VANE
Sophisticated collector/investor traded-up today in an unprecedented shift acquiring an historically significant, one-of-a-kind directional weather vane, the value of which is thought to be in the eight figure range. The proud new owner said "This fabulous weather vane is right up there with other important treasures I have had the pleasure of owning, and points to a new direction in my search for the finest in collectibles." Broker for the exchange said "In my humble opinion, this world famous piece enjoys inestimable value, and will be cherished for many years to come", and added that she was very proud to represent the ultimate collectors of the two genres.
Besides the brokerage houses getting involved, the low pops on all the newly slabbed coins offered a fairly tight market. Just a few years earlier there were 10X as many raw coins to choose from. Now there were only a fraction of that slabbed and available.
It took time to bring that house down.
Let's also not forget that gold was a non-player in that market.
Gold and commodities did their thing in the 1971-1980 market and are currently doing their thing in the 2000-???? market. Much more money available when commodities as a whole are ruling the roost.
So in that respect 1988-1990 was much more "air" driven.
Can anyone recall where any major coin bull market ended at FUN?
The last 2 busts occurred in April for the most part (tax time I guess).
That alone is good news for FUN 2007.
But I do recall going to either the FUN 1988 or 1989 show and it was close to being dead from my point of view. In either case the market still moved up quite a bit from that point.
roadrunner
STEWART - Maybe they have and you weren't invited?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
Yeah I think it isn't real. Bid back down to $1.2 million...
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
1) When the top tier TPGs made it difficult to get upgrades, wildly toned coins in series that don't have this kind of wild toning started 'mysteriously' appearing. And people almost got into fights to see who could pay more for them.
2) In the last three years, I have seen less and less material that interested me on the bourse floor at Long Beach, and I have been buying fewer and fewer coins.
3) Dealers who can't sell overpriced and / low end material for the grade on the floor are consigning more and more of it to major auction houses, hoping that they can get their prices in the midst of auction fervor.
4) An increasing number of people with more money than common sense are coming into numismatics.
5) A contact of mine who deals with many expensive coins on an almost daily basis says he has never seen so many people buying increasingly expensive pieces of plastic and don't have a clue about the quality (or lack thereof) of the coins (encased in such plastic).
6) An increasing number of people see speculating with large amounts of money in coins as an investment (see #4).
7) An increasing number of dealers, after trying to upgrade a coin several times, seem to believe that they can sell a coin in one grade (say MS 65) for the price of the next numerical grade above (in this case MS 66).
8) Due to the above, it is becoming increasingly apparent to more and more of us that numismatics is becoming more unsuitable as a hobby, because we cannot find value in coins which we want to complete whatever set we are working on. Ie., I don't think a cleaned AU 50 Type Bust $ that made it into a first generation TPG slab is worth between $8-$10K. In the last several years, I have put more money into my pension plan and my house, and less into coins. I see this trend continuing.
9) An increasing number of important people in numismatics believe that some artificially toned / cooked coins are market acceptable.
Lastly THINGS ARE DIFFERENT THIS TIME - NOT! This is what the people who bought internet stocks in 1999 were told. They were told that price earnings ratios did not matter, because prices were only going up. I saw the craziness before the crash in 1980. I also saw what was going on in 1989-1990.
When people who have more money than common sense get involved in an activity, it's not a good sign. I see people all of the time that touched gold in one activity who proceed to make idiots out themselves because they think they can do the same in an area where they have no expertise.
That being said, I don't know when the numismatic market will tank again. But it will, as do all other markets. "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it" Santanayev.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
1. Registrycoin didn't get enough recognition for his hiqh quality weather vane post. Well done.
2. The people whose posts I normally agree with are not worried about a market top.
3. Two unnamed posters who have never posted anything previously that I liked are on the market top bandwagon.
4. Jay's "immature and transparent" attempts to impress other members seem to be working. And I thought I could trust him to say what was on his mind.
5. Jupiter, Please put your money where your mouth is and post or PM me your for sale list. I have a modest buy list and I know others here have a less modest one.
--Jerry
That sounds like a Top to me......on the other hand, when everyone either calls or agrees it is a Top, it will go higher.
<< <i>wildly toned coins in series that don't have this kind of wild toning started 'mysteriously' appearing. And people almost got into fights to see who could pay more for them. >>
You know I'm listening and we both have mentioned this many times. I do think a lot folks are wising up a bit now, and being more careful. Which is a good thing.
I agree.
How about now?
No?
How about now?
Seriously, all looks fine at the moment...
How about now?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Andy, Santa has come and gone! You will just have to wait until next year for your wish. Of course that means you will have to be angelic throughout the year. That means fantastic coin deals for all of your customers!
Even customer wannabes!
BTW, we also see that Saintguru was quoted in that WSJ article. Seems he is everywhere!
Happy Holidays to all!
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
Yep, that's me. Angelic!
That means fantastic coin deals for all of your customers!
I'm going to miss my customers...
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Sorry John, they don't want anything gold..
notwilight (Jerry)--
Elaborate on this because I find it both unwarranted and untrue. How am I trying to "impress" anyone? Because Mr. Eureka wanted to talk about economic cycles being static? Am I transparent because I own Saints, yet I still am buying bigger and bigger coins while selling off lesser ones?
You and Jupiter need to back up what you say. What have I EVER said that makes my opinions and views untrustworthy? Cite ONE example. ONE.
I express exactly what I believe to be true on these boards. I have NO aganda other than to talk about coins and the coin market. If I was not bullish I would easily rectify that. I'd sell everything in a heartbeat and take my money. No sweat. I wouldn't have the slightest problem selling what I have. The only "problem" is that I don't WANT to sell them now. I love them and I think that they will be worth more in 10 years.
remember one thing......no one here is a sage or a genie. You're coin nerds. Act like it.
<< <i>I just read through this thread for the first time and have a couple of comments: 1. Registrycoin didn't get enough recognition for his hiqh quality weather vane post. Well done. 2. The people whose posts I normally agree with are not worried about a market top. 3. Two unnamed posters who have never posted anything previously that I liked are on the market top bandwagon. 4. Jay's "immature and transparent" attempts to impress other members seem to be working. And I thought I could trust him to say what was on his mind. 5. Jupiter, Please put your money where your mouth is and post or PM me your for sale list. I have a modest buy list and I know others here have a less modest one. --Jerry >>
It's been pointed out to me that my 4th point above isn't clear and it's worth clarifying because it could be interpreted exactly opposite of how I meant it. Another poster took a shot at Saintguru saying he makes "immature and transparent" attempts to impress others on the forum. In my opinion, Jay is first guy that comes to mind when I want to name someone who speaks exactly what he means to say. And he's the last one I'd name if I wanted someone trying to placate the masses in a popularity contest.
--Jerry
Jay doen't have to write anything to defend himself. But Jupiter makes statements without any supporting evidence to support his contentions. So I believe it is right of Jay to ask for support of Jupiter's positions or for him to just come out and say he just "believes it so".
FYI, I am selling my coins at FUN. With close to $10 million in value, my reasons for selling have NOTHING to do with market tops or bottoms. So I believe your assumptions, at least in my case, are incorrect. I am extremely bullish as gold hasn't even begun its major move and there are still big disbelievers like you LLOYD! We need you.....be skeptical and stay that way!
I suspect that FUN will be a spectactular show and if I am wrong it may only be a good show. Lots of new money supposedly entering the coin market from various areas.
That is not to say we won't have corrections and pullbacks as that is always healthy. So there you have it.....my opinion.....
If you want facts to support my position, look at our balance of trade deficit, budget deficit, credit extension, dependence on foreign investment, derivative exposure, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Medicare, Social Security, Democrats gaining power with gridlock in Washington. If you would like more, I will post again....
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
BTW, this FUN show will be very exciting. I expect it to be a blow-out - with many records. It has been another great year for my retired and pension clients, but I'm not so sure these stock gains are not just "watered" stock...
Nervous for the start of 2007.
<< <i>Sheesh Jay, had to write a ton to defend yourself. Usually a signal of much guilt???
Jay and I have exchanged quite a few PMs and I think we know each other pretty well. I am glad it bothered him that he thought I was taking a shot at him. My apologies. See my explanation in another post. --Jerry
Mincy...you realize that every little tweek you try to take at me will be paid back in spades at FUN?
"This ain't no popularity contest...it's a coup."
<< <i>" you don't know what you're talking about, you are unqualified, you are saying stupid stuff, it's time to keep your mouth shut "
Interesting counterpoints from someone here who always seems to be obsessed with transparent and immature attempts at trying to impress others here.
To address the additional counterpoints here, they have all be strongly made by those with a powerful vested interest in expensive collections or those who make a living as a retail dealer in the market and are therefore highly biased. The fact remains that a significant number of owners of top level collections and very expensive rarities have chosen to cash out now and I believe it may be a long and painful summer for those bidding moon money at FUN. >>
You sub-elitist!!
Rare Coin Market History
And look how it ends.
"One thing is certain when it comes to the rare coin market, the only constant is change. Any move in the price of gold or in the inflation rate, or the long overdue correction in the stock market, or continued interest in the Statehood quarter program, could move the rare coin market in a big way. The market is a coiled spring. There is substantial potential for energetic growth. Looking at the trend from the mid-1970s, we see that the coin market is where it's supposed to be. We view the risk now as minimal. It does not appear that the rare coin market will be headed any lower, and given any external stimulus whatsoever, could easily make a strong upward move. Those patient investors with the wisdom to purchase near the bottom will be the ones who reap the reward at the top."
Maybe it isn't the end of the world, and the market just took a breather.
With all the coins coming up for sale at FUN, hopefully there will be strong demand to meet the strong supply.
<< <i>Those patient investors with the wisdom to purchase near the bottom will be the ones who reap the reward at the top >>
So are they saying that now is "near the bottom" or are they talking about the folks who bought a few years ago? Frankly, this is kind of like saying that the key to investing in anything is buy low sell high.
CG
If one is looking for some relevant information however I propose that many bull market runs in the past where prices have advanced so quickly have lasted only 2 or 3 years just like now and ended abruptly and turned ugly. I would propose that coin and bullion markets tend to show increases during times of rising interest rates such as we have had for the past 2 years and rates are now topped out and will probably be steady or on their way back down by mid to late 2007. I would propose that other bull markets in coins have ended nearly coinciding with a huge blow out auction which contained numerous tremendous classic rarities as top end collectors sell out to investors and speculators, I would propose that trees do not grow to the sky and the coin market has had a very large advance in the past few years in certain upper end areas that are overdue for a significant pullback and a long period of consolidation. I would propose that the overall economy is cooling off and real estate prices have peaked in most areas and overall commodity prices may also cool in 2007 including the metals which have also had a very strong run in the past 2 years and will not keep rising indefinately at this pace. I propose that too many people are very bullish on the coin market which in itself is a bad signal. I propose that that the upper eschelon of this market is now being supported by non numismatic dollars and wealthy trophy hunters who ultimately are weak money and will sell in droves at the first sign of a significant downturn. I propose that both oil and precious metals prices have seen their peaks in 2006 and the coin markets may follow them in a downward trend in 2007. I propose that many dealers and collectors will over extend themselves to buy coins at FUN thinking this market can only get better when exactly the opposite will occur and this will be a long a weak summer of 2007.
thing exactly a year ago, just before,
and just after, the same Heritage FUN
Sales.
And the beat goes on.......
<< <i>People have asked me to support my opinion with concrete facts, however there can be no absolute concrete facts to support a position in either direction in any thinly traded collectible oriented market, only perception, emotions, the herd mentality, a Ouigi Board, and the position of the planets.
If one is looking for some relevant information however I propose that many bull market runs in the past where prices have advanced so quickly have lasted only 2 or 3 years just like now and ended abruptly and turned ugly. I would propose that coin and bullion markets tend to show increases during times of rising interest rates such as we have had for the past 2 years and rates are now topped out and will probably be steady or on their way back down by mid to late 2007. I would propose that other bull markets in coins have ended nearly coinciding with a huge blow out auction which contained numerous tremendous classic rarities as top end collectors sell out to investors and speculators, I would propose that trees do not grow to the sky and the coin market has had a very large advance in the past few years in certain upper end areas that are overdue for a significant pullback and a long period of consolidation. I would propose that the overall economy is cooling off and real estate prices have peaked in most areas and overall commodity prices may also cool in 2007 including the metals which have also had a very strong run in the past 2 years and will not keep rising indefinately at this pace. I propose that too many people are very bullish on the coin market which in itself is a bad signal. I propose that that the upper eschelon of this market is now being supported by non numismatic dollars and wealthy trophy hunters who ultimately are weak money and will sell in droves at the first sign of a significant downturn. I propose that both oil and precious metals prices have seen their peaks in 2006 and the coin markets may follow them in a downward trend in 2007. I propose that many dealers and collectors will over extend themselves to buy coins at FUN thinking this market can only get better when exactly the opposite will occur and this will be a long a weak summer of 2007. >>
I don't really agree with your point of view. I am sure others will chime in here.
Or his lack of depth of knowledge. He's another coin-proletariat who is bitter because his stuff probably isn;t goin up.
Reference Fred's post above. Same song, GREAT results to follow.