I believe the 3 strongest points supporting my opinions are the end of the interest rate increase cycle and cooling economy, the consolidation of precious metals prices, and my opinion the coin market has run its course and prices are ahead of themselves and the non collector big money has stepped in which is nearly always a sign of a market top.
I believe the lions share and sharp increases of both the coin market and precious metals gains have been since earlt to mid 2004 which would coincide with interest rates increasing. I do not believe the coin market was very strong between 2000 and 2001.
<< <i>I believe the lions share and sharp increases of both the coin market and precious metals gains have been since earlt to mid 2004 which would coincide with interest rates increasing. >>
Can't believe I read all 9 pages. Interesting stuff.
For my 2 cents, if I hadn't sold the bulk of my collection and rotated into 19th century American art (plus a few misc. coins), I would be more interested in the FUN auctions.
Yogi was right - hardest thing to predict is the future.
"My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose, Cardinal.
Not according to the PCGS 3000 coin market index graph which clearly shows a decline in prices from mid 1999 to mid 2002 and then an upturn with the greatest gains from 2004 to date.
Seems kind of silly to use a chart that completely ignores the effects of grade inflation on overall pricing. Those of us who were active in the market at the time know that values were rising tremendously during the first part of this decade...
As the market for rare coins continues to rise, it's great for the people who make their living selling and brokering them.
However, for long time collectors like me, there is less available material. If I want it, I have to compete with the new money, which apparently thinks that current pricing of such coins is affordable, even though it is at historic highs for many of the items which I collect. The net effect is that I feel the value isn't 'there,' and that I am getting much less joy out of the hobby than I did five years ago. Ie., I'm not interested in buying a cleaned / conserved AU 50 Type Bust $ in a 1st world TPG slab for $8-$10K.
An increasing number of us are buying less, if we are buying anything at all. Some people who post here, whose numismatic knowledge I respect greatly, aren't buying coins any longer. I spent 1/5 in 2006 of what I spent on coins in 2003 because of this. In the grand scheme of things, it probably won't amount to anything, but more of us who have been the hobby for a number of years are heading toward the exits.
Looking this over, I apologize for the rant, but I think it needs to be said.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
I propose that that the upper eschelon of this market is now being supported by non numismatic dollars and wealthy trophy hunters who ultimately are weak money and will sell in droves at the first sign of a significant downturn.
I have to disagree with this comment to the extent they are weak money.
Usually, 'non numismatic dollars and wealthy trophy hunters' have more money behind them and are in fact very well diversified.
At the first sign of a significant downturn, these people have assets to choose from to get liquid.
Rare coins for them are an actual part of a diversified portfolio.
I would characterize this portion of their portfolio as a private equity position. By definition, private equity investments are normally held 5 to ten years.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Being on the phone first to order these coins or some other 'in' to buy these freshly made coins is of no interest to me numismatically yet I have no doubt people are making money in flipping.
I do believe a "market' can and has developed for them.
I believe in capitalism and America.
This however is not my style of coin collecting or investing in rare coins.
Now if moderns are being bought from the mint and flipped at a double then I ask myself at what point will the musical chairs stop.
Who gets hurt? It happened to Peace $ and commemoratives over the years as they were promoted.
It will happen to moderns.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>As the market for rare coins continues to rise, it's great for the people who make their living selling and brokering them.
However, for long time collectors like me, there is less available material. If I want it, I have to compete with the new money, which apparently thinks that current pricing of such coins is affordable, even though it is at historic highs for many of the items which I collect. The net effect is that I feel the value isn't 'there,' and that I am getting much less joy out of the hobby than I did five years ago. Ie., I'm not interested in buying a cleaned / conserved AU 50 Type Bust $ in a 1st generation TPG slab for $8-$10K.
An increasing number of us are buying less, if we are buying anything at all. Some people who post here, whose numismatic knowledge I respect greatly, aren't buying coins any longer. I spent 1/5 in 2006 of what I spent on coins in 2003 because of this. In the grand scheme of things, it probably won't amount to anything, but more of us who have been the hobby for a number of years are heading toward the exits.
Looking this over, I apologize for the rant, but I think it needs to be said. >>
Look...there are coins that are high within a series and coins that aren't. I think that a MS65 High Relief at this summer's 50K was way too high...after all, there are close to 350of them! Is THAT a 50K coin? No. Now take a 1924-S MS65 Saint of which there are 2...last price was 100K and none additional have been made since these were graded. I'd bet anything that of pone turned up it would easily be worth 150K to a Saint collector. There are anomolies, but the market is still in great shape, IMO.
The enthusiam for the better coins, patterns and PRF gold will be like sharks in a feeding frenzy bringing big money. But the smart owners selling the rarities will put that money in Wall Street for the next 5 years. The coin market will still be strong 15% upside per year. But bullion gold and platinum will rise 30% upside in the next two years. But if gas prices soar out of control to $4 a gallon, watch out money will dry up and bullion will tumble.
I tend to agree with this assessment. Welcome to the boards! ps. luckily, I feel that well chosen "bullion coins" have their overriding numismatic value, and will not be affected by a downturn of the base metal prices.
<< <i>The enthusiam for the better coins, patterns and PRF gold will be like sharks in a feeding frenzy bringing big money. But the smart owners selling the rarities will put that money in Wall Street for the next 5 years. The coin market will still be strong 15% upside per year. But bullion gold and platinum will rise 30% upside in the next two years. But if gas prices soar out of control to $4 a gallon, watch out money will dry up and bullion will tumble. >>
If gas went to $4 a gallon bullion would tumble? With how much money the Fed is printing today (Why did M3 vanish?) coupled with $4 gas bullion will go up. The world will be fleeing dollars and going hard. Bullion will only retreat when we stop printing money like 1930's Germany and literally blowing up hard assets (Trucks in Iraq). If the US can get its act together then get out of bullion but I don't see that anytime soon, IMHO. $9,000,000,000,000 debt!
<< <i>The enthusiam for the better coins, patterns and PRF gold will be like sharks in a feeding frenzy bringing big money. But the smart owners selling the rarities will put that money in Wall Street for the next 5 years. The coin market will still be strong 15% upside per year. But bullion gold and platinum will rise 30% upside in the next two years. But if gas prices soar out of control to $4 a gallon, watch out money will dry up and bullion will tumble. >>
Maybe smart money is taking some money out of Wall Street and buying truly rare coins for the next 5 years.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Comments
What is your explanation for huge price increases in rare coins during the falling interest rate period of 2000-2004?
<< <i>I believe the lions share and sharp increases of both the coin market and precious metals gains have been since earlt to mid 2004 which would coincide with interest rates increasing. >>
I believe you are wrong about the coin market.
For my 2 cents, if I hadn't sold the bulk of my collection and rotated into 19th century American art (plus a few misc. coins), I would be more interested in the FUN auctions.
Yogi was right - hardest thing to predict is the future.
Not according to the PCGS 3000 coin market index graph which clearly shows a decline in prices from mid 1999 to mid 2002 and then an upturn with the greatest gains from 2004 to date.
WTH uses an indexed coin chart to determine buying great coins?
i don't get the modern haters.
i don't like old classic crap. i think morgans are dogs. the history is great, but everybody and their mama collects them.
and that bring up things like VAMS. i don't understand them. i don't get them. but i do understand there is a market for them and people want them.
i don't have to go to a big shot big time holier than thou dealer and pay juice + to buy what i collect.
and what i do collect will one day be old and classic and worth more than what i paid for it.
there are only 3700 of the 1/10 and less of the big ones (in the latest modern crap series).
first year series. key coins. like it or not, they are.
do you honestly beleeve there aren't WAY more people than the # of coins that they will eventually want or need what i own to finish their collection?
to each his own.
i think they are just mad because of all the money being spent on them and NOT their trinkets. it will eventually eat some of their market.
hi, i'm tom.
i do not doctor coins like some who post in here.
However, for long time collectors like me, there is less available material. If I want it, I have to compete with the new money, which apparently thinks that current pricing of such coins is affordable, even though it is at historic highs for many of the items which I collect. The net effect is that I feel the value isn't 'there,' and that I am getting much less joy out of the hobby than I did five years ago. Ie., I'm not interested in buying a cleaned / conserved AU 50 Type Bust $ in a 1st world TPG slab for $8-$10K.
An increasing number of us are buying less, if we are buying anything at all. Some people who post here, whose numismatic knowledge I respect greatly, aren't buying coins any longer. I spent 1/5 in 2006 of what I spent on coins in 2003 because of this. In the grand scheme of things, it probably won't amount to anything, but more of us who have been the hobby for a number of years are heading toward the exits.
Looking this over, I apologize for the rant, but I think it needs to be said.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I propose that that the upper eschelon of this market is now being supported by non numismatic dollars and wealthy trophy hunters who ultimately are weak money and will sell in droves at the first sign of a significant downturn.
I have to disagree with this comment to the extent they are weak money.
Usually, 'non numismatic dollars and wealthy trophy hunters' have more money behind them and are in fact very well diversified.
At the first sign of a significant downturn, these people have assets to choose from to get liquid.
Rare coins for them are an actual part of a diversified portfolio.
I would characterize this portion of their portfolio as a private equity position. By definition, private equity investments are normally held 5 to ten years.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I know nothing about moderns.
I have no interest in what is freshly made.
Being on the phone first to order these coins or some other 'in' to buy these freshly made coins is of no interest to me numismatically yet I have no doubt people are making money in flipping.
I do believe a "market' can and has developed for them.
I believe in capitalism and America.
This however is not my style of coin collecting or investing in rare coins.
Now if moderns are being bought from the mint and flipped at a double then I ask myself at what point will the musical chairs stop.
Who gets hurt? It happened to Peace $ and commemoratives over the years as they were promoted.
It will happen to moderns.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Who gets hurt? It happened to Peace $ and commemoratives over the years as they were promoted.
It will happen to moderns.
Not if all of those people who bought the coins are putting multiple APE sets together.
<< <i>As the market for rare coins continues to rise, it's great for the people who make their living selling and brokering them.
However, for long time collectors like me, there is less available material. If I want it, I have to compete with the new money, which apparently thinks that current pricing of such coins is affordable, even though it is at historic highs for many of the items which I collect. The net effect is that I feel the value isn't 'there,' and that I am getting much less joy out of the hobby than I did five years ago. Ie., I'm not interested in buying a cleaned / conserved AU 50 Type Bust $ in a 1st generation TPG slab for $8-$10K.
An increasing number of us are buying less, if we are buying anything at all. Some people who post here, whose numismatic knowledge I respect greatly, aren't buying coins any longer. I spent 1/5 in 2006 of what I spent on coins in 2003 because of this. In the grand scheme of things, it probably won't amount to anything, but more of us who have been the hobby for a number of years are heading toward the exits.
Looking this over, I apologize for the rant, but I think it needs to be said. >>
Wisdom needs no apology.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I agree with you.
Look...there are coins that are high within a series and coins that aren't. I think that a MS65 High Relief at this summer's 50K was way too high...after all, there are close to 350of them! Is THAT a 50K coin? No. Now take a 1924-S MS65 Saint of which there are 2...last price was 100K and none additional have been made since these were graded. I'd bet anything that of pone turned up it would easily be worth 150K to a Saint collector. There are anomolies, but the market is still in great shape, IMO.
You can buy a 1924-s Saint in NGC MS65 for half that amount!
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
<< <i>SG,
You can buy a 1924-s Saint in NGC MS65 for half that amount!
Yeah...I could have bought 3 of them in the last 2 years....that's a lot for a MS64.
<< <i>Now if moderns are being bought from the mint and flipped at a double then I ask myself at what point will the musical chairs stop.
Who gets hurt? It happened to Peace $ and commemoratives over the years as they were promoted.
It will happen to moderns.
Not if all of those people who bought the coins are putting multiple APE sets together. >>
I am ignorant ....what is an APE set and why would putting together multiple sets prevent a meltdown.
Not everyone can keep flipping, someone will get burned and stop buying altogether you think?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
<< <i>Now if moderns are being bought from the mint and flipped at a double then I ask myself at what point will the musical chairs stop.
Who gets hurt? It happened to Peace $ and commemoratives over the years as they were promoted.
It will happen to moderns.
Not if all of those people who bought the coins are putting multiple APE sets together. >>
I am ignorant ....what is an APE set and why would putting together multiple sets prevent a meltdown.
Not everyone can keep flipping, someone will get burned and stop buying altogether you think? >>
I am just being facetious. Many of the buyers of these have posted that they are putting sets together...and I am sure some are...
ps. luckily, I feel that well chosen "bullion coins" have their overriding numismatic value, and will not be affected by a downturn of the base metal prices.
<< <i>The enthusiam for the better coins, patterns and PRF gold will be like sharks in a feeding frenzy bringing big money. But the smart owners selling the rarities will put that money in Wall Street for the next 5 years. The coin market will still be strong 15% upside per year. But bullion gold and platinum will rise 30% upside in the next two years. But if gas prices soar out of control to $4 a gallon, watch out money will dry up and bullion will tumble. >>
If gas went to $4 a gallon bullion would tumble? With how much money the Fed is printing today (Why did M3 vanish?) coupled with $4 gas bullion will go up. The world will be fleeing dollars and going hard. Bullion will only retreat when we stop printing money like 1930's Germany and literally blowing up hard assets (Trucks in Iraq). If the US can get its act together then get out of bullion but I don't see that anytime soon, IMHO. $9,000,000,000,000 debt!
<< <i>The enthusiam for the better coins, patterns and PRF gold will be like sharks in a feeding frenzy bringing big money. But the smart owners selling the rarities will put that money in Wall Street for the next 5 years. The coin market will still be strong 15% upside per year. But bullion gold and platinum will rise 30% upside in the next two years. But if gas prices soar out of control to $4 a gallon, watch out money will dry up and bullion will tumble. >>
Maybe smart money is taking some money out of Wall Street and buying truly rare coins for the next 5 years.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.