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  • I'm guessing that the previous peak in 1989 was when the Bass brothers were trying to corner the gold and silver market. Is that correct? Do any of you remember what the market was like then?
  • saintgurusaintguru Posts: 7,728 ✭✭✭


    << <i>The bull market has barely started. Those that have a 10-year investment horizon instead of a 10-week one know this and will do very well.

    What is going on in FUN is prices have moved up nicely and enough over the past couple of years to finally bring some nice fresh material out to market. Collectors will collect throughout and long-term investors will continue to add to their holdings as well.

    Saint Guru is very accurate in his comments. On the other hand all market tops are charactirized by an 100% optimism with no one saying anything about a market coming down. As long as their are folks out there like Jupiter, and not to belittle his belief, we haven't reached a top. So I am glad to see responses about this being a top. It's a guarantee we have a long way to go if one keeps a long term investment vision.

    Glenn >>



    ANYTHING that Sandy Koufax says is 100% true. image
    image
  • Those that have acquired true wealth in the coin market have done so by analysing the market in terms of 10 and 20 years, not ten and twenty weeks. We already know that this is not 1989 and it appears that the current bull market has much farther to go absent external forces causing an economy wide dip. Those that say "smart money" is selling have failed to provide any facts supporting their positions nor have they defined the key term "smart money".
  • I casually notice the people who most insist I am dead wrong are also surprisingly enough those with the most to lose if I am right. This only serves to strengthern my opinion.
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,669 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The bull market has barely started. Those that have a 10-year investment horizon instead of a 10-week one know this and will do very well.

    Anyone that believes that "the bull market has barely started" had not been paying attention.
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • You should write what you pmed me Andy ... it was good insightful information.


  • << <i>I casually notice the people who most insist I am dead wrong are also surprisingly enough those with the most to lose if I am right. This only serves to strengthern my opinion. >>



    Accordingly to your logic, one should not act as the wealthy act because they have the most to lose ... I disagree. There is a reason that we have the most to lose ... generally, it is because we have made money and have a track record for success. Your argument is incorrectly premised upon a preconceived notion that, because we have more to lose, we are more likely to deceive ourselves as to the true nature of the market. This simply is not correct ... those would be the actions of desparate men, not successful men.
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,604 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Still waiting for specific examples of smart money cashing out.

    I'd love for truly rare coins to crash in price - then I could buy more of them than I can now!
  • bidaskbidask Posts: 14,057 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Now it's an alternative long-term investment.



    I have been saying this, no question about it!image
    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,669 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You should write what you pmed me Andy ... it was good insightful information.

    Why would smart money invest in coins to begin with? image
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • bidaskbidask Posts: 14,057 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There is far to much liquidity out there....and in strong hands.

    Strong hands don't have to sell as they own other assets for liquidity needs.

    ANY meaningful dip in rare coins with original surfaces and problem free will be met with vigorous buying. 'Wall Street' is waking again to a different numismatic market than what happened in 1990.

    Alternatives is the operative word here and is early in catching on relative to the 'Street.

    You will NOT see fanfare in the accumulation of good coins again. Add in the growing new collector base worldwide and we have a sustained bull market.

    I do not see the market dropping.
    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.






  • << <i>Why would smart money invest in coins to begin with? image >>



    I would most definitely say yes ... and it has been doing so for many, many years.
  • PonyExpress8PonyExpress8 Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭
    The bull market has barely started. Those that have a 10-year investment horizon instead of a 10-week one know this and will do very well.

    Anyone that believes that "the bull market has barely started" had not been paying attention.

    How easy it is to take something out of context. Look back at history in most different types of markets Andy. Long-term bull markets last for many, many years, well over a decade in most cases. The current bull market in rare coins has a lot further to go if it follows typical market patterns. It has a lot more time ahead of it then we have seen thus far since it started in 2002. There will be interim corrections but it has taken now 4 years or so to begin to bring some nice fresh material that has been off the market as Julian points out. This is a very exciting time and before this bull market is over we should be seeing more fresh exciting coins come to market for the balance of the decade.

    As a collector you should be able to add some really nice coins to your holdings over the next few years as some of this material will now be a bit more available. I am sure the dealers I follow hope that's the case as obtaining fresh nice quality coins has been very challenging for what I have read and heard. If this FUN show coming up is any indication fresh quality coins may be showing up a bit more and that should be a good thing for all parties.
    The End of the Line in the West.

    Website-Americana Rare Coin Inc
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,669 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Long-term bull markets last for many, many years, well over a decade in most cases.

    When was the last time a bull market in coins lasted for more than a decade? Not during my lifetime. Maybe not even during Art Kagin's lifetime.
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • PonyExpress8PonyExpress8 Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭
    I am viewing this in the context of several markets including stocks, art and real estate, not just coins, which I think my statements are pretty clear on. I would certainly call the period from the mid-50's to early 1970's over 10 years and if you look at any reliable price guides, although sans TPG's during that period, and with normal short-term corrections coins enjoyed a sustained bull market.

    Now with TPG's resulting in a lower risk to investors of grade games from dealers, and a broader base of collectors and investors, the current coin market is likely to have a much longer run comparable to other investment options. My views are obviously a lot more macro than just the coin market, but your's could be right too.

    Like any discussion either side can usually pull up facts to support their position. Only time in hindsight can really be the judge, can't it?
    The End of the Line in the West.

    Website-Americana Rare Coin Inc
  • saintgurusaintguru Posts: 7,728 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I casually notice the people who most insist I am dead wrong are also surprisingly enough those with the most to lose if I am right. This only serves to strengthern my opinion. >>




    I'll bet you have your fingers waving in front of your nose too.

    You REALLY should sell your coins. I think it's the right move for you. This IS the top, ya know?
    image
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,669 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I would certainly call the period from the mid-50's to early 1970's over 10 years

    My understanding is that the coin market tanked in 1964 and stayed depressed until the early 70's.
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • saintgurusaintguru Posts: 7,728 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Long-term bull markets last for many, many years, well over a decade in most cases.

    When was the last time a bull market in coins lasted for more than a decade? Not during my lifetime. Maybe not even during Art Kagin's lifetime. >>



    When was the last bull market with TPG coins?
    When was the last time gold was over $600...in a sustained move?
    Who bought all the coins in the LAST bull market?
    When was the "flight to quality" popular among savvy wealthy individuals?

    THINGS ARE DIFFERENT THIS TIME. I will take the position that NO dealer alive has ever seen a fundamentally similar scenario to what we have today. I remember when Robert Prechter was ridiculed for his 3600 Dow call in the mid 80's. John Templeton was considered over the hill and senile when he said Dow 20,000 in the 90's.

    You think history repeats itself? Not a chance. That's old-school economics that is being discredited now.
    image
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,669 ✭✭✭✭✭
    THINGS ARE DIFFERENT THIS TIME.

    Famous last words.
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,604 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hurry up and crash already - I gots rarities to buy! image
  • saintgurusaintguru Posts: 7,728 ✭✭✭


    << <i>THINGS ARE DIFFERENT THIS TIME.

    Famous last words. >>



    Yep...that's why I capitalized that. Just like the Phillip's Curve is obsolete. GOOGLE that, Andy.
    image
  • CalGoldCalGold Posts: 2,608 ✭✭


    << <i>THINGS ARE DIFFERENT THIS TIME >>



    Not really. 1982 Eliasberg 1839 Proof Eagle auctioned -- sells for the price of a house. 2007 Eliasberg 1839 Proof Eagle auctioned -- sells for the price of a house.

    CG
  • Hold On:

    <<SHAKE, SHAKE, SHAKE>>

    "It is decidedly so."

    Don't worry ... my realiable sources say that we are going to be OK!

    image

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,669 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just like the Phillip's Curve is obsolete. GOOGLE that, Andy.

    I know you're old, but how young do you think I am?

    For all it's worth, it never make sense to me. Not enough dimensions on the graph.
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • saintgurusaintguru Posts: 7,728 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Just like the Phillip's Curve is obsolete. GOOGLE that, Andy.

    I know you're old, but how young do you think I am?

    For all it's worth, it never make sense to me. Not enough dimensions on the graph. >>



    Maybe so...but the Phillips Curve was ALWAYS a key gauge of inflation and influece for monetary policy. Now it's a dinosaur.

    That's my point. THINGS CHANGE...especially economics in a modern age.image
    image
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,669 ✭✭✭✭✭
    THINGS CHANGE...especially economics in a modern age.

    Economic theory changes. Economic principles? Maybe not.

    Anyway, good luck to all!
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • "It is uninformed to say the smart money is cashing out. I see NO evidence."







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    and this is just the tip of the iceberg of SELLERS at FUN, so many top tier collections and ultra rarities selling out it boggles the mind and pales into insignificance the few million dollar buyers you mention
  • "If the market were ready to drop-these big players wouldn't even be in coins-they sell before the first hint of a down turn. And they certainly wouldn't be buying."



    this is certainly speculation on your part and the part of the buyers as you nor anyone else can say with certainty the market is not topped out. Just because someone has a million dollars or two burning a hole in their pocket is not evidence the market will reach new highs in the coming months or years.
  • saintgurusaintguru Posts: 7,728 ✭✭✭


    << <i>THINGS CHANGE...especially economics in a modern age.

    Economic theory changes. Economic principles? Maybe not.

    Anyway, good luck to all! >>




    Of course economics change!

    Do you think that the measures of unemployment are different now that there is technology and robotics in manufacturing?

    Do you think the fact that over 25% of the work-force has shifted into service related jobs vs. labor is a fundamental change?

    Andy...as we become more advanced with technology, outsourcing, fed policy and dozens of other variables, ECONOMIC PRINCIPLES change. They are NOT static. The Industrial Revolution economy of the 19th century was MUCH different that the manufacturing economy of the 50's as well as the technological economy of the new millenium. More distribution of wealth, less need for fed meddling, more need for taxes.

    Oh, Jupiter....what of there are TWICE as many buyers than that list of sellers? Would that mean that the market is topping? Your evidence is an interpretation, not empirical by any means. You are using half of an equation to prove something.

    Man...I need an economics forum.image
    image
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,604 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>"If the market were ready to drop-these big players wouldn't even be in coins-they sell before the first hint of a down turn. And they certainly wouldn't be buying."



    this is certainly speculation on your part and the part of the buyers as you nor anyone else can say with certainty the market is not topped out. Just because someone has a million dollars or two burning a hole in their pocket is not evidence the market will reach new highs in the coming months or years. >>



    You must be right - hurry up and crash already! image
  • It's the end of the world as we know it ... but I feel fine image


  • BigEBigE Posts: 6,949 ✭✭✭
    OMG----------"The Dennis Ritter Collection of Ethiopian Coins" is being sold, we are done for----------------BigE
    I'm glad I am a Tree
  • BigEBigE Posts: 6,949 ✭✭✭
    Aren't most of these collections named just for the sale? They are consignment names, not names of collections-------------------BigE
    I'm glad I am a Tree
  • A quick review of Jupiter' posts in the last few months shows nothing but negative comments on EVERY topic he engages, sooooooo ...

    [ignore]Jupiter[/ignore]
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,604 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Aren't most of these collections named just for the sale? They are consignment names, not names of collections-------------------BigE >>



    Shhhh! - crash, darnit - crash! image
  • Interesting how someone makes a bold prediction and voices an opinion that FUN will be the top of the market based on the huge number of sellers and endless array of top flight material for sale, and the CU braintrust and those with seemingly the most to lose in a strong market reversal can do no more then reply with sarcasm and nasty remarks and beat their chest how uniformed and what an imbecile you are for not agreeing with their views. To add to the sarcasm I'm sure most of these sellers consigning tens of millions of dollars in coins feel the market will jump another 50% very soon but desperately need funds to pay the overdue phone and cable bill.
  • Teeing it up for #100 ...
  • CoxeCoxe Posts: 11,139
    People can have all sorts of reasons to sell. Might want to reposition some money into scooping real estate at discounts? Might be putting a little spin on the wheel to keep the inertia going and are not bailing out completely? We know one individual among us is selling a legendary (no pun initially intended) coin but is retaining quite a bit of truly great material. We do know this market seriously needs the infusion of a good supply of fresh and quality coins. The good stuff has been dwindling for, what, 18 months solid now? I know I did ok buying at FUN last time, but the previous one was way better for me. One thing I can say about money, smart or not, is that the only folks I have heard packing their bags and looking elsewhere are those who have felt priced out of the market. Buyers of significant means are still quite eager and waiting with acquired patience for the coins they desire to avail themselves.
    Select Rarities -- DMPLs and VAMs
    NSDR - Life Member
    SSDC - Life Member
    ANA - Pay As I Go Member
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,604 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Interesting how someone makes a bold prediction and voices an opinion that FUN will be the top of the market based on the huge number of sellers and endless array of top flight material for sale,

    I feel you are missing the crux of the response to your assertion. Where was your bold predicition last FUN? The FUN before that? Last ANA? The ANA before that? Every year these auctions have been better and bigger than the year before.... there's nothing special about this FUN. There's no difference in the incremental increase of nice coins over last year and the year before that and the year before that. Why is it different this year?

    You've yet to prove your point. A list of consignors in the Heritage auction is not factual proof that the 'smart money' is cashing out.


  • << <i>To add to the sarcasm I'm sure most of these sellers consigning tens of millions of dollars in coins feel the market will jump another 50% very soon but desperately need funds to pay the overdue phone and cable bill. >>



    That is an interesting observation Jupiter ... upon what do you base this assertion? If you are correct, it surely doesn't speak well for the state of the market.

  • CoinosaurusCoinosaurus Posts: 9,652 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Selling out doesn't necessarily mean a lot - I bet a lot of these sellers the last few years are "permanent" collectors and have jumped back in, perhaps in another area. If all the auction sales the last couple years were "one-way", money leaving the market permanently, this market would be seriously depressed.

    As for the folks with the million dollar pockets, that doesn't mean much to me either - you are talking about a very narrow segment of the market, even if there are 50 or even 100 of them. It's not hard to imagine a small batch of very successful boomers out who grew up filling penny boards, and now want to buy coins because they are "cool", regardless of the rest of the market.

    The ultra-rarities naturally grab attention, but probably a better measure of foundational strength is how many coins are being sold in the $500-$5000 "collector" range.
  • ConnecticoinConnecticoin Posts: 13,272 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i> Steve Wynn but his arm through a painting that was worth as much as all the coins for sale at FUN-and he had the darn thing sold! >>



    Did not hear that one. How the heck did that happen -- did he trip over someone?
  • image
    The Accumulator - Dark Lloyd of the Sith

    image
  • I am with TDN on this subject. I hope it all TANKS so I can buy some cool stuff.


    In all reality this is not going to happen.

    The FUN show/auction/bourse activity is going to be a barometer for the year to come. Mark my words.
  • DAMDAM Posts: 2,410 ✭✭
    Talk about investors and millions of dollars going in and out of coins, makes me think about the collector. Collectors like to make a little from their sale, no matter what they collect. For some collectors it's the joy of collecting, not the return they may get if they sell. Buying and selling coins to acheive a position in a Registry, for some, has replaced collecting for fun.

    My collection is comprised of coins up to the 4 to 5 digit range. Coins I'm interested in now fall in the mid to upper 4 digit range. That said, I'm with TDN... let it crash. I'll buy what I want for less.

    It will eventually make a turn upward. And if I miss the upswing... oh well.

    Because I'm a collector. image



    Dan
  • saintgurusaintguru Posts: 7,728 ✭✭✭
    Hey Jupiter.

    Any idea how many of the collectors who are selling their coins are "estate sales" because the owner is dead?

    If you DON'T know that then you know NOTHING, because that could have SIGNIFICANT bearing on the facts.

    Quit your whining. You got your ass whupped for saying stupid stuff...now it's time to keep your mouth shut, get into position and bid.



    image
    image
  • CoxeCoxe Posts: 11,139
    Good point, Jay. Some of the best collections don't come to market due to highly informed, calculated, opportnistic timing. They are sold by an executor to liquidate an estate for inheritances. Look at some great ones that sold in bad markets. Although the circumstances of the liquidation were different, the non-gold portions of the grand Eliasberg collection sold at a really crappy time, the mid-90s. (I credit that sale with the beginning of this market's slow pull up.)

    Another thing to point out is that having a lot of money doesn't mean one has all of the correct answers on money matters. Some do; some don't. Some would say putting a lot into coins is a foolish risk of money (not in the Motley sense), indicating the coin side is not their brutallt serious money. However, a lot of money folks (especially those with a head for coins) can be alarmingly involved in even minute details on transactions. The point is that there is no rule that applies to all and there is not circle-of-_______ conspiracy.
    Select Rarities -- DMPLs and VAMs
    NSDR - Life Member
    SSDC - Life Member
    ANA - Pay As I Go Member
  • saintgurusaintguru Posts: 7,728 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Good point, Jay. Some of the best collections don't come to market due to highly informed, calculated, opportnistic timing. They are sold by an executor to liquidate an estate for inheritances. Look at some great ones that sold in bad markets. Although the circumstances of the liquidation were different, the non-gold portions of the grand Eliasberg collection sold at a really crappy time, the mid-90s. (I credit that sale with the beginning of this market's slow pull up.)

    Another thing to point out is that having a lot of money doesn't mean one has all of the correct answers on money matters. Some do; some don't. Some would say putting a lot into coins is a foolish risk of money (not in the Motley sense), indicating the coin side is not their brutallt serious money. However, a lot of money folks (especially those with a head for coins) can be alarmingly involved in even minute details on transactions. The point is that there is no rule that applies to all and there is not circle-of-_______ conspiracy. >>



    Would the Texas Bank/Browning collection come to mind?

    here was one of the finest Gold collections ever assembled, and he died young. The unfortunate timing of his heirs auction...October 29/30 2001. Just 6 weeks after 9/11.

    That's not market timing. Many others arent either.
    image
  • " you don't know what you're talking about, you are unqualified, you are saying stupid stuff, it's time to keep your mouth shut "




    Interesting counterpoints from someone here who always seems to be obsessed with transparent and immature attempts at trying to impress others here.


    To address the additional counterpoints here, they have all be strongly made by those with a powerful vested interest in expensive collections or those who make a living as a retail dealer in the market and are therefore highly biased. The fact remains that a significant number of owners of top level collections and very expensive rarities have chosen to cash out now and I believe it may be a long and painful summer for those bidding moon money at FUN.

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