LOL he is a good friend of mine from working at the jail together, he got that nick name "The Matador" in reference to our Poker Games and him "Luring young bulls into the ring" šššš
College hoops is just as diabolical as NBA/NFL, my buddy just took a horrific bad beat
That is so sick.
Believe me I have had a steady diet of getting my rear end frosted this season, just constant reminders of why I typically do $20 plays, and sprinkle in occasional $50 and maybe a $100 here and there
I want to smash $500 and $1000 bets but I just know better
Stay disciplined, I think is the key to success in any form of money making endeavor. I've learned that in the stock market over the years. Don't get too emotionally high or low in any situation. Not easy when you're in the moment, especially during a steep downslide. But I've managed to be disciplined, have confidence in my portfolio, stay the course, and it has worked out quite well.
Same goes for collectibles. I of course enjoy the collectible aspect, always have. However I also focus on the investment part of it as well. Some investments haven't worked out, but fortunately most have over the years. My worst loser is I still own around 200 Kevin Maas rookie cards. The next Mickey Mantle my arze, and I got sucked in on the hype.
I've mentioned this before about Doyle. His advice about poker, I've been using that with sports betting and it has worked out well thus far in this new computer era. Make the right decisions, which I do mainly based on the math. If I feel the math is in my favor, then I go with that. I've had bad beats, but admittedly like last night on the mentioned California game, I eked out a one point win. So I think the good and bad beats do even out in the long run. That being said, if a player isn't making the "right" decisions, and the math isn't in his favor, and he's just depending on luck, then it's basically a hopeless task trying to beat the bookie. It just ain't gonna happen.
Hey, I'm still going to sometimes complain in this thread about a bad beat. It's cheaper to do that here, than paying to do it at a $250 an hour psychiatrist. š
LOL he is a good friend of mine from working at the jail together, he got that nick name "The Matador" in reference to our Poker Games and him "Luring young bulls into the ring" šššš
The old saying in poker is when sitting down at a poker table, and you can't figure out who is the fish, then the fish is you. That is so true. But of course the "young bulls" are usually too full of themselves to realize that, and they usually get smoked.
LOL he is a good friend of mine from working at the jail together, he got that nick name "The Matador" in reference to our Poker Games and him "Luring young bulls into the ring" šššš
The old saying in poker is when sitting down at a poker table, and you can't figure out who is the fish, then the fish is you. That is so true. But of course the "young bulls" are usually too full of themselves to realize that, and they usually get smoked.
So true, back in the mid 2000's when Texas Hold 'Em became popular we used to have games, we were in our 30's and a bunch of younger guys used to come to our games thinking they were poker players when they literally just started with the Hold Em craze but me and my buddies had already been playing poker since the 80's so we were seasoned veterans, the younger guys learned the pecking order real quick lol
Looking at the Clippers game coming up. I'm itching to play them here, but as previously mentioned, the Clippers are my worst nemesis team for sports betting. I can't ever seem to time them right. So I'll likely pass on the game.
2 for 2 in NCAA BB action today. Got two more NCAA BB games going now, with comfortable leads. So overall a good day. As long as I stay disciplined, and not play the Clippers game. But it's like the Siren's Song calling me to bet it. LOL
I "won" both of my bets today. Didn't bet either one as both picks lost, NFL. So by elimination I "won". Have to try this angle more in the future.
I have decided to take this weekend off as well won't be betting the playoffs. Going to play a few SB win bets Monday and call it a year. Golf is just around the corner and I look forward to that. Best of luck to all here going forward with your playoff bets.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@perkdog said:
I almost hammered SF tonight and so. far I'm glad I didn't, they can't move the ball. against Seattle
I thought the way Seattle dominated they would be ahead by more.
I liked the Seahawks in that game. But I would have played the Panthers and lost in the other game. So I ain't complaining. Decided to abstain from both games. No props or anything. I didn't even check, but from the score totals, I doubt if my props would have hit.
@perkdog said:
I almost hammered SF tonight and so. far I'm glad I didn't, they can't move the ball. against Seattle
I thought the way Seattle dominated they would be ahead by more.
I liked the Seahawks in that game. But I would have played the Panthers and lost in the other game. So I ain't complaining. Decided to abstain from both games. No props or anything. I didn't even check, but from the score totals, I doubt if my props would have hit.
It is said:Sometimes, the best bets are the ones you don't make.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@stevek said:
Looking at the Clippers game coming up. I'm itching to play them here, but as previously mentioned, the Clippers are my worst nemesis team for sports betting. I can't ever seem to time them right. So I'll likely pass on the game.
Clippers were -1.5 favorites at home.
So what happens, they get blown out by 31 points.
Fortunately this time, they didn't take me down with them.
If the Broncos lose, I got a cardboard box all ready to go for my new home. Complete with a couple cans of baked beans, until I can locate the soup kitchen.
I. live bet Riley Leanord to get 275 yards passing, their last drive they got inside the 10.and I cashed out at $117 then ofcourse 2 plays later he throws and gets 278 yards.
Well the last play of the game with that razzle dazzle stupidity he ended up. losing yards and ended up. with 270.so the cashout went from sour grapes to a fist pump lol
@perkdog said:
I got away with one in the Houston, Indy game
I. live bet Riley Leanord to get 275 yards passing, their last drive they got inside the 10.and I cashed out at $117 then ofcourse 2 plays later he throws and gets 278 yards.
Well the last play of the game with that razzle dazzle stupidity he ended up. losing yards and ended up. with 270.so the cashout went from sour grapes to a fist pump lol
I stated months ago that in general, it's not a good idea to cash-out early. Mainly because in my estimation, the bookie is grabbing around 10% more juice.
That being said, I changed my mind on this a while back to be flexible, to cash-out on selected games at selected times, depending on the cash-out payment percentage. Each time I have done this, I saved money and cut my losses. Never once cashed out, and my team came back and won.
Did it again today in the Bengals game, as I played the Bengals ML. Long story short, the Bengals were playing dreadful football, including giving up a pick-6 early in the game. I forget exactly when I cashed out, but sometime during the second half it was obvious to me that nothing was going to improve. I just didn't like the flow of the game at all. I got back a little over 50% of my money.
Even when the Bengals took a slight lead late in the game, I was satisfied with making the decision, no problem. As Doyle stated, it's about making the right decisions. Well of course the Browns came back and won the game. Money saved, money earned.
before i yap, i'm sorry this didn't hit. the only reason i'm touching on this parlay is because we're a brotherhood on this thread. weeks ago i declared that from now on, regular season NBA games are off limits for yours truly. quite obviously, football has been a struggle for me ever since the A&M-South Carolina debacle, thus i didn't need any extra help losing money. and i'm convinced that that's the only thing that can happen by wagering on NBA games that have very little at stake. i am a firm believer that it is a losing proposition. i myself have gotten reamed repeatedly. from night to night, from game to game, individual games are the epitome of unpredictability, and i wouldn't wish trying to make sense of any of them on my worst enemy.
what happened in these two particular games should give even the world's biggest degen pause
both Philly & OKC were very hefty 15.5-pt favorites last night. we all know about the Thunder. not playing great as of late, but still the NBA's best and had lost only one time at home all season long. they were playing a terrible basketball team in the Charlotte Hornets. their record entering last night's game was 12-23. OKC should have been able to beat them with 4 guys on their home floor.
Charlotte won by 27
the next game is even better, incredibly. Philly, when healthy, is a good team. when Embiid, Maxey and George are in the lineup, they can hang with anyone. last night they were at full strength at home. the Nuggets are an even better team, but to say that they were not at full strength last night would be a grave understatement. they only had 9 available players. none of them were starters. they were even missing two of their top bench guys. so the Nuggets basically threw their worst players out on the floor for 4 quarters.
Denver won in OT
usually i try to inject levity into our gambling proclivities, but in this case i'm being dead serious -- be very careful when betting on random regular season NBA games. anyfreakingthing can happen, and these two games were prime examples. this exact parlay is something i would have done myself even a month ago, but it reached a point where i am legit scared of any NBA game outside of the playoffs. 20-point leads evaporate in the blink of an eye, and teams that have no business winning do so with alarming regularity. sometimes by margins that will make your head spin.
i'm not pretending to know more than you guys, because i don't. the sole reason for this post is because i genuinely care. we're in this together. so if anyone detects a precarious situation, by all means, speak up. and the first 82 games on any NBA team's schedule is as precarious as it gets.
before i yap, i'm sorry this didn't hit. the only reason i'm touching on this parlay is because we're a brotherhood on this thread. weeks ago i declared that from now on, regular season NBA games are off limits for yours truly. quite obviously, football has been a struggle for me ever since the A&M-South Carolina debacle, thus i didn't need any extra help losing money. and i'm convinced that that's the only thing that can happen by wagering on NBA games that have very little at stake. i am a firm believer that it is a losing proposition. i myself have gotten reamed repeatedly. from night to night, from game to game, individual games are the epitome of unpredictability, and i wouldn't wish trying to make sense of any of them on my worst enemy.
what happened in these two particular games should give even the world's biggest degen pause
both Philly & OKC were very hefty 15.5-pt favorites last night. we all know about the Thunder. not playing great as of late, but still the NBA's best and had lost only one time at home all season long. they were playing a terrible basketball team in the Charlotte Hornets. their record entering last night's game was 12-23. OKC should have been able to beat them with 4 guys on their home floor.
Charlotte won by 27
the next game is even better, incredibly. Philly, when healthy, is a good team. when Embiid, Maxey and George are in the lineup, they can hang with anyone. last night they were at full strength at home. the Nuggets are an even better team, but to say that they were not at full strength last night would be a grave understatement. they only had 9 available players. none of them were starters. they were even missing two of their top bench guys. so the Nuggets basically threw their worst players out on the floor for 4 quarters.
Denver won in OT
usually i try to inject levity into our gambling proclivities, but in this case i'm being dead serious -- be very careful when betting on random regular season NBA games. anyfreakingthing can happen, and these two games were prime examples. this exact parlay is something i would have done myself even a month ago, but it reached a point where i am legit scared of any NBA game outside of the playoffs. 20-point leads evaporate in the blink of an eye, and teams that have no business winning do so with alarming regularity. sometimes by margins that will make your head spin.
i'm not pretending to know more than you guys, because i don't. the sole reason for this post is because i genuinely care. we're in this together. so if anyone detects a precarious situation, by all means, speak up. and the first 82 games on any NBA team's schedule is as precarious as it gets.
Completely agree with ya.
I believe the key to success in any venture to make money, is to build on your strengths and avoid your weaknesses. This strategy has worked very well for me in business over the years.
Using that strategy in sports betting, might be able to work as well, and so far for me it has. My bankroll since this football season began is up 140%. So while I'm still making mistakes, I must be doing something right.
That being said, I probably will still bet some NBA games, but I need to be much more selective, and wait for better opportunities. I'm not hissed at the 76ers game. They lost in OT by a point, Chit happens. But grotesquely losing like that with OKC is unacceptable, and I was very unhappy with myself over that game. Especially when I had the chance as mentioned, to get the yell out with 30% equity on the bet. I doubled down on the error. Whether it's business or sports betting, doing that too often or making a habit of it, can be a fatal mistake to one's bankroll.
To wrap up this post, I do hear ya about the NBA, and I do intend to focus more on college BB, which has gone very well for me this season, and last season.
Some may find the following funny. But I killed women's college basketball last season. I guess others out there did as well because the bookies are rarely offering it now. Most days, no lines or anything. I've only seen a handful of games available all season, and the lines were extremely high with no ML offered. I say it's funny because some I know will never bet women's sports. But I tell them hey, if ya can make money at it, why not? LOL
i'm certainly not telling you what to do. far be it from me to do so, because i'm getting my azz handed to me. if you're rolling, keep doing your thing. and if that has included NBA games, by all means continue. i just can't do it. if i say "i can't believe that ******* happened" one more time as it pertains to an NBA tilt, i'm going to end up in a mental institution. and i said it twice last night.
that parlay should hit 95 times out of 100, and under no circumstance should both the Hornets and Nuggets have won their respective games. but they did. because it's the NBA.
transitioning to a slightly less unpredictable scenario, let's talk NFL playoffs. what's running through your head with regard to your team? i really, really like them against SF. they didn't play their starters last weekend and should be fresh as a daisy at home. i think they are going to come out firing. meanwhile, half of SF's roster has been in an infirmary and they did not look good at home against Seattle in week 18.
My input on the wildcard games are I do like SF +4.5
Carolina +10 or Rams ML
Chicago ML
Jax ML
Pats ML
Houston ML
Heavy on Houston, Jax and Pats
if SF was healthy i might be inclined to agree with you
i'm definitely with you on Jacksonville. i am not understanding why they are dogs at home against Buffalo. it's as if Vegas is blinded by Josh Allen. outside of him and James Cook, nothing about that team should scare anyone. and the Jags have been balling out -- they haven't lost a game since Nov. 9. what are we missing?
i have no earthly idea what to expect when it comes to GB/Chi
if the Rams lose i'm going to bury myself alive
i like the Pats
Houston's D against an offense that is the cure for insomnia, yet for some reason that game scares me
My input on the wildcard games are I do like SF +4.5
Carolina +10 or Rams ML
Chicago ML
Jax ML
Pats ML
Houston ML
Heavy on Houston, Jax and Pats
if SF was healthy i might be inclined to agree with you
i'm definitely with you on Jacksonville. i am not understanding why they are dogs at home against Buffalo. it's as if Vegas is blinded by Josh Allen. outside of him and James Cook, nothing about that team should scare anyone. and the Jags have been balling out -- they haven't lost a game since Nov. 9. what are we missing?
i have no earthly idea what to expect when it comes to GB/Chi
if the Rams lose i'm going to bury myself alive
i like the Pats
Houston's D against an offense that is the cure for insomnia, yet for some reason that game scares me
I don't see the Rams losing, i don't believe they cover 10.pounts on the grass in Carolina especially if Carolina keeps rotating their backs and runs the ball. down LA's throat, that's the way because Bryce Young isn't good enough to beat them.
I think Houston demolishes Rodgers, their D should rebound and play strong
I hope Chicago wins and I really think they will but I'm not nearly as confident as I am with the Pats and Jax
i'm certainly not telling you what to do. far be it from me to do so, because i'm getting my azz handed to me. if you're rolling, keep doing your thing. and if that has included NBA games, by all means continue. i just can't do it. if i say "i can't believe that ******* happened" one more time as it pertains to an NBA tilt, i'm going to end up in a mental institution. and i said it twice last night.
that parlay should hit 95 times out of 100, and under no circumstance should both the Hornets and Nuggets have won their respective games. but they did. because it's the NBA.
transitioning to a slightly less unpredictable scenario, let's talk NFL playoffs. what's running through your head with regard to your team? i really, really like them against SF. they didn't play their starters last weekend and should be fresh as a daisy at home. i think they are going to come out firing. meanwhile, half of SF's roster has been in an infirmary and they did not look good at home against Seattle in week 18.
what say you?
Haven't yet delved deeply into handicapping the NFL playoffs. At quick glance, I did see a few games that looked interesting, and I'll post the picks here if I decide to play anything.
As far as the Eagles chances, there are some inherent problems which shouldn't be ignored. One is their motivation. Of course they won it last season. But nobody is going to convince me that their motivation to win it is the same this season.
Another problem is the fact that the Eagles and the Chiefs played more games last season than any other team. I mentioned this factor before the season began, that it was one reason I thought the Chiefs likely wouldn't make it to the playoffs. After all that success, they collapsed in the Super Bowl, and despite their talent, I expected that downward slide to continue this season which it did. I also stated the chances of the Eagles winning the Super Bowl this season was "iffy" and I still believe that, despite being a huge fan.
Can't bet like a fan and expect to make money sports betting. Have to bet reality, and the fact is the Eagles at times this season have played like a tired football team. I think those who never played football, can't fully understand the difference just playing a few extra games during the year, the extra toll it takes on a human body. They might say it's only one or two extra games to win the Super Bowl, what's the big deal? Well, when you're already nicked up, and not resting, you're simply exacerbating the injuries, and making it longer for the injuries to heal, if the injuries ever heal at all.
Even with all the rule changes to make football safer, it's still a brutal sport. Before this becomes a dissertation, LOL, I'll just say that because of all just mentioned, is a reason I probably won't play the Eagles against the 49ers, or anytime else during this playoff season. That being said, I'll be very happy if the Eagles go on to win it again, and it costs me money that I could have made betting on them. Fortunately, I don't need the money that bad. š
Quick word about the Patriots. They were 60-1 to win the Super Bowl in the pre-season odds. I called it in one or two threads, I forget where, that I thought they were the best long shot. No sense regurgitating the reasons at this point. Suffice to say, now the odds are 9-1 which if cashed out, would have been a heckuva nice profit. No, I didn't play it or any other team, I've never made a futures bet. I'm too impatient to wait that long for a betting result. LOL
I think the Patriots need a bit more seasoning, before winning a Super Bowl. I'm not saying it's impossible this season, but it's rare that a team such as this takes the Lombardi Trophy. The 9-1 odds in my opinion are not a good value.
All that being said, I believe the Patriots are in an excellent position to take one down in some of the coming seasons ahead. Patriots fans have a lot to look forward to with this team.
Comments
hey ya Perkdog...
How's Matador doing ???
Is that
your
Where are you going
š¤š»š¤š»š¤š»...
š¤£šš¤£šš¤£š...
LOL he is a good friend of mine from working at the jail together, he got that nick name "The Matador" in reference to our Poker Games and him "Luring young bulls into the ring" šššš
hey ya Perkdog...
Let your guy Matador know that I could Bond My Crew Out and We'll Bust Some Spades...
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Stay disciplined, I think is the key to success in any form of money making endeavor. I've learned that in the stock market over the years. Don't get too emotionally high or low in any situation. Not easy when you're in the moment, especially during a steep downslide. But I've managed to be disciplined, have confidence in my portfolio, stay the course, and it has worked out quite well.
Same goes for collectibles. I of course enjoy the collectible aspect, always have. However I also focus on the investment part of it as well. Some investments haven't worked out, but fortunately most have over the years. My worst loser is I still own around 200 Kevin Maas rookie cards. The next Mickey Mantle my arze, and I got sucked in on the hype.
I've mentioned this before about Doyle. His advice about poker, I've been using that with sports betting and it has worked out well thus far in this new computer era. Make the right decisions, which I do mainly based on the math. If I feel the math is in my favor, then I go with that. I've had bad beats, but admittedly like last night on the mentioned California game, I eked out a one point win. So I think the good and bad beats do even out in the long run. That being said, if a player isn't making the "right" decisions, and the math isn't in his favor, and he's just depending on luck, then it's basically a hopeless task trying to beat the bookie. It just ain't gonna happen.
Hey, I'm still going to sometimes complain in this thread about a bad beat. It's cheaper to do that here, than paying to do it at a $250 an hour psychiatrist. š
The old saying in poker is when sitting down at a poker table, and you can't figure out who is the fish, then the fish is you. That is so true. But of course the "young bulls" are usually too full of themselves to realize that, and they usually get smoked.
So true, back in the mid 2000's when Texas Hold 'Em became popular we used to have games, we were in our 30's and a bunch of younger guys used to come to our games thinking they were poker players when they literally just started with the Hold Em craze but me and my buddies had already been playing poker since the 80's so we were seasoned veterans, the younger guys learned the pecking order real quick lol
Looking at the Clippers game coming up. I'm itching to play them here, but as previously mentioned, the Clippers are my worst nemesis team for sports betting. I can't ever seem to time them right. So I'll likely pass on the game.
2 for 2 in NCAA BB action today. Got two more NCAA BB games going now, with comfortable leads. So overall a good day. As long as I stay disciplined, and not play the Clippers game. But it's like the Siren's Song calling me to bet it. LOL
I almost hammered SF tonight and so. far I'm glad I didn't, they can't move the ball. against Seattle
I thought the way Seattle dominated they would be ahead by more.
I "won" both of my bets today. Didn't bet either one as both picks lost, NFL. So by elimination I "won". Have to try this angle more in the future.
I have decided to take this weekend off as well won't be betting the playoffs. Going to play a few SB win bets Monday and call it a year. Golf is just around the corner and I look forward to that. Best of luck to all here going forward with your playoff bets.
I liked the Seahawks in that game. But I would have played the Panthers and lost in the other game. So I ain't complaining. Decided to abstain from both games. No props or anything. I didn't even check, but from the score totals, I doubt if my props would have hit.
It is said:Sometimes, the best bets are the ones you don't make.
on NYE the Spurs played the Knicks
the number was SA -2.5
https://youtube.com/shorts/BvH8xcOuOs8?si=gYtSTQrqLsh2K53t
I'm not sure if a hook loss can get any sicker than that.
Clippers were -1.5 favorites at home.
So what happens, they get blown out by 31 points.
Fortunately this time, they didn't take me down with them.
Lots of interesting opportunities today with the NFL games.
At the end of the day, I may be looking at new car brochures or begging for quarters on South Street.
That is disgusting lol
Bengals ML, Vikings ML, Broncos ML parlay
Broncos ML
Martingale the parlay loss.
If the Broncos lose, I got a cardboard box all ready to go for my new home. Complete with a couple cans of baked beans, until I can locate the soup kitchen.
My new home after the Broncos lose.
Pretty fancy if I may say so.
I got away with one in the Houston, Indy game
I. live bet Riley Leanord to get 275 yards passing, their last drive they got inside the 10.and I cashed out at $117 then ofcourse 2 plays later he throws and gets 278 yards.
Well the last play of the game with that razzle dazzle stupidity he ended up. losing yards and ended up. with 270.so the cashout went from sour grapes to a fist pump lol
I'll save the box just in case I need it later.
Besides, I already paid in advance the 50 cents a month rent for the space.
I stated months ago that in general, it's not a good idea to cash-out early. Mainly because in my estimation, the bookie is grabbing around 10% more juice.
That being said, I changed my mind on this a while back to be flexible, to cash-out on selected games at selected times, depending on the cash-out payment percentage. Each time I have done this, I saved money and cut my losses. Never once cashed out, and my team came back and won.
Did it again today in the Bengals game, as I played the Bengals ML. Long story short, the Bengals were playing dreadful football, including giving up a pick-6 early in the game. I forget exactly when I cashed out, but sometime during the second half it was obvious to me that nothing was going to improve. I just didn't like the flow of the game at all. I got back a little over 50% of my money.
Even when the Bengals took a slight lead late in the game, I was satisfied with making the decision, no problem. As Doyle stated, it's about making the right decisions. Well of course the Browns came back and won the game. Money saved, money earned.
Super Bowl winner odds:
49'ers are damn good odds
OKC appearing vulnerable again with a loss yesterday on the road. They play tonight at home.
Two angles in play here. Galaxy's angle about NBA teams playing the next day, perhaps not playing well due to being tired.
But also the angle of a strong team rebounding and winning off a loss.
McNeese ML
Michigan State ML
Thunder ML
76ers ML
OKC down 19 points in the 3rd Q
Cask-out value 30%
I should probably cash out and be done with it, but this was a bad bet to begin with, so may as well just let it get even worse. š
That OKC game was the epitome of ugly.
I guess the OKC players kept reading about how invincible they were.
before i yap, i'm sorry this didn't hit. the only reason i'm touching on this parlay is because we're a brotherhood on this thread. weeks ago i declared that from now on, regular season NBA games are off limits for yours truly. quite obviously, football has been a struggle for me ever since the A&M-South Carolina debacle, thus i didn't need any extra help losing money. and i'm convinced that that's the only thing that can happen by wagering on NBA games that have very little at stake. i am a firm believer that it is a losing proposition. i myself have gotten reamed repeatedly. from night to night, from game to game, individual games are the epitome of unpredictability, and i wouldn't wish trying to make sense of any of them on my worst enemy.
what happened in these two particular games should give even the world's biggest degen pause
both Philly & OKC were very hefty 15.5-pt favorites last night. we all know about the Thunder. not playing great as of late, but still the NBA's best and had lost only one time at home all season long. they were playing a terrible basketball team in the Charlotte Hornets. their record entering last night's game was 12-23. OKC should have been able to beat them with 4 guys on their home floor.
Charlotte won by 27
the next game is even better, incredibly. Philly, when healthy, is a good team. when Embiid, Maxey and George are in the lineup, they can hang with anyone. last night they were at full strength at home. the Nuggets are an even better team, but to say that they were not at full strength last night would be a grave understatement. they only had 9 available players. none of them were starters. they were even missing two of their top bench guys. so the Nuggets basically threw their worst players out on the floor for 4 quarters.
Denver won in OT
usually i try to inject levity into our gambling proclivities, but in this case i'm being dead serious -- be very careful when betting on random regular season NBA games. anyfreakingthing can happen, and these two games were prime examples. this exact parlay is something i would have done myself even a month ago, but it reached a point where i am legit scared of any NBA game outside of the playoffs. 20-point leads evaporate in the blink of an eye, and teams that have no business winning do so with alarming regularity. sometimes by margins that will make your head spin.
i'm not pretending to know more than you guys, because i don't. the sole reason for this post is because i genuinely care. we're in this together. so if anyone detects a precarious situation, by all means, speak up. and the first 82 games on any NBA team's schedule is as precarious as it gets.
Completely agree with ya.
I believe the key to success in any venture to make money, is to build on your strengths and avoid your weaknesses. This strategy has worked very well for me in business over the years.
Using that strategy in sports betting, might be able to work as well, and so far for me it has. My bankroll since this football season began is up 140%. So while I'm still making mistakes, I must be doing something right.
That being said, I probably will still bet some NBA games, but I need to be much more selective, and wait for better opportunities. I'm not hissed at the 76ers game. They lost in OT by a point, Chit happens. But grotesquely losing like that with OKC is unacceptable, and I was very unhappy with myself over that game. Especially when I had the chance as mentioned, to get the yell out with 30% equity on the bet. I doubled down on the error. Whether it's business or sports betting, doing that too often or making a habit of it, can be a fatal mistake to one's bankroll.
To wrap up this post, I do hear ya about the NBA, and I do intend to focus more on college BB, which has gone very well for me this season, and last season.
Some may find the following funny. But I killed women's college basketball last season. I guess others out there did as well because the bookies are rarely offering it now. Most days, no lines or anything. I've only seen a handful of games available all season, and the lines were extremely high with no ML offered. I say it's funny because some I know will never bet women's sports. But I tell them hey, if ya can make money at it, why not? LOL
@stevek
i'm certainly not telling you what to do. far be it from me to do so, because i'm getting my azz handed to me. if you're rolling, keep doing your thing. and if that has included NBA games, by all means continue. i just can't do it. if i say "i can't believe that ******* happened" one more time as it pertains to an NBA tilt, i'm going to end up in a mental institution. and i said it twice last night.
that parlay should hit 95 times out of 100, and under no circumstance should both the Hornets and Nuggets have won their respective games. but they did. because it's the NBA.
transitioning to a slightly less unpredictable scenario, let's talk NFL playoffs. what's running through your head with regard to your team? i really, really like them against SF. they didn't play their starters last weekend and should be fresh as a daisy at home. i think they are going to come out firing. meanwhile, half of SF's roster has been in an infirmary and they did not look good at home against Seattle in week 18.
what say you?
My input on the wildcard games are I do like SF +4.5
Carolina +10 or Rams ML
Chicago ML
Jax ML
Pats ML
Houston ML
Heavy on Houston, Jax and Pats
if SF was healthy i might be inclined to agree with you
i'm definitely with you on Jacksonville. i am not understanding why they are dogs at home against Buffalo. it's as if Vegas is blinded by Josh Allen. outside of him and James Cook, nothing about that team should scare anyone. and the Jags have been balling out -- they haven't lost a game since Nov. 9. what are we missing?
i have no earthly idea what to expect when it comes to GB/Chi
if the Rams lose i'm going to bury myself alive
i like the Pats
Houston's D against an offense that is the cure for insomnia, yet for some reason that game scares me
I don't see the Rams losing, i don't believe they cover 10.pounts on the grass in Carolina especially if Carolina keeps rotating their backs and runs the ball. down LA's throat, that's the way because Bryce Young isn't good enough to beat them.
I think Houston demolishes Rodgers, their D should rebound and play strong
I hope Chicago wins and I really think they will but I'm not nearly as confident as I am with the Pats and Jax
Haven't yet delved deeply into handicapping the NFL playoffs. At quick glance, I did see a few games that looked interesting, and I'll post the picks here if I decide to play anything.
As far as the Eagles chances, there are some inherent problems which shouldn't be ignored. One is their motivation. Of course they won it last season. But nobody is going to convince me that their motivation to win it is the same this season.
Another problem is the fact that the Eagles and the Chiefs played more games last season than any other team. I mentioned this factor before the season began, that it was one reason I thought the Chiefs likely wouldn't make it to the playoffs. After all that success, they collapsed in the Super Bowl, and despite their talent, I expected that downward slide to continue this season which it did. I also stated the chances of the Eagles winning the Super Bowl this season was "iffy" and I still believe that, despite being a huge fan.
Can't bet like a fan and expect to make money sports betting. Have to bet reality, and the fact is the Eagles at times this season have played like a tired football team. I think those who never played football, can't fully understand the difference just playing a few extra games during the year, the extra toll it takes on a human body. They might say it's only one or two extra games to win the Super Bowl, what's the big deal? Well, when you're already nicked up, and not resting, you're simply exacerbating the injuries, and making it longer for the injuries to heal, if the injuries ever heal at all.
Even with all the rule changes to make football safer, it's still a brutal sport. Before this becomes a dissertation, LOL, I'll just say that because of all just mentioned, is a reason I probably won't play the Eagles against the 49ers, or anytime else during this playoff season. That being said, I'll be very happy if the Eagles go on to win it again, and it costs me money that I could have made betting on them. Fortunately, I don't need the money that bad. š
Florida ML
7:00 game
Quick word about the Patriots. They were 60-1 to win the Super Bowl in the pre-season odds. I called it in one or two threads, I forget where, that I thought they were the best long shot. No sense regurgitating the reasons at this point. Suffice to say, now the odds are 9-1 which if cashed out, would have been a heckuva nice profit. No, I didn't play it or any other team, I've never made a futures bet. I'm too impatient to wait that long for a betting result. LOL
I think the Patriots need a bit more seasoning, before winning a Super Bowl. I'm not saying it's impossible this season, but it's rare that a team such as this takes the Lombardi Trophy. The 9-1 odds in my opinion are not a good value.
All that being said, I believe the Patriots are in an excellent position to take one down in some of the coming seasons ahead. Patriots fans have a lot to look forward to with this team.
Auburn ML
9:00 game
8:00 pm Wednesday
Jazz vs Thunder at home -17.5
I may need to get tied up in order to stay off the computer until this game ends. š
It's either the easiest Martingale of all time, or the worst sucker bet. š¤
https://www.youtube.com/embed/CEJUWsHLTeI?list=RDCEJUWsHLTeI
The Sirens are calling me to place that Martingale bet. š
sorry wrong topic... šāāļøšāāļøšāāļø
Yea, the shoulda, coulda, woulda club. LOL
That is INSANE
And a visit from the IRS looking for their cut.
Went with Miami to win the ship.
Well, no OKC bet - the math just isn't there.
They may win by 40, and I couldn't care less if they do.
gl bro
golf about to start up ā³ļø