My viewpoint is if ya wish to beat the bookies, you can't be a homer and blindly always bet your favorite team.
That being said, I'm not crazy about the Eagles chances today, but I do like the math and feel I've got a slight edge in the money line. Might also play a Barkley rushing prop. Maybe receiving prop as well.
My early SB plays, from almost 3 months ago,are slowly fading. KC out,GB out. Bills only 1 left. Decided to skip final week of regular play and no playoff bets. Went with 4 more SB bets placed on Friday. Rams,Eagles,Broncos,Pats. Maybe I can buy a winner. At any rate that will be it. I don't play prop bets in the SB so hope 1 of these SB bets gets in.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
Jax losing yesterday cost me $1800 in winning bets
It's my own fault, I thought of doing similar bets with Jax +3.5 and even Bills ML. since that was the one game I was a little iffy on, everything else hit of course.
Was up about $700 on Saturday and ran it all into memories yesterday, drinking and punching stupid live bets in on the phone are not recommended lol
@perkdog thanks. sorry about Jacksonville -- they cost me too. i was tilting hard last night and that 200$ was very nearly 800$. so digging deep and finding discipline cost me. but i'm not complaining -- i just needed a winner.
the wild card games have been wild. the Rams were on life support, my team comes back from 21-3, Jags lost when I thought they'd win, Eagles lost when I thought they'd win. the only game that truly went the way i thought it would was last night.
so with that said, nothing would surprise me tonight. i think Pittsburgh sucks. another crap Tomlin team that slithered into the playoffs and should be one and done again. and yes, Houston has a great D but i can't get the home game against Vegas out of my head. i watched that entire game a few weeks ago (because I had money on it) and the Raiders -- yes the Raiders -- were able to effectively move the ball on them, score points, and almost steal the game. so yes, it is very possible for the Pittsburgh Rodgers to turn back the clock and look like the Green Bay Rodgers tonight.
but for the sake of my bet i'm simply going to take the -- in my opinion -- better team
@galaxy27 said: @perkdog thanks. sorry about Jacksonville -- they cost me too. i was tilting hard last night and that 200$ was very nearly 800$. so digging deep and finding discipline cost me. but i'm not complaining -- i just needed a winner.
the wild card games have been wild. the Rams were on life support, my team comes back from 21-3, Jags lost when I thought they'd win, Eagles lost when I thought they'd win. the only game that truly went the way i thought it would was last night.
so with that said, nothing would surprise me tonight. i think Pittsburgh sucks. another crap Tomlin team that slithered into the playoffs and should be one and done again. and yes, Houston has a great D but i can't get the home game against Vegas out of my head. i watched that entire game a few weeks ago (because I had money on it) and the Raiders -- yes the Raiders -- were able to effectively move the ball on them, score points, and almost steal the game. so yes, it is very possible for the Pittsburgh Rodgers to turn back the clock and look like the Green Bay Rodgers tonight.
but for the sake of my bet i'm simply going to take the -- in my opinion -- better team
-6028.64
Sincerely I. cannot envision any type of scenario. where Rodgers carves up that Houston D, DK playing or not
But of course OKC then wins the 3rd and 4th quarters. 😒
I'm done trying to time this friggin' inconsistent OKC team. Galaxy warned us - I should have listened sooner.
i'm a broken record, but the NBA is just insane. from one night to the next, from one quarter to the next, from one minute to the next, anything and everything is possible. for me to completely abstain from betting on a sport really is saying something, because i'll bet on anything. but i was on the verge of being placed a white room with padded walls if i placed one more NBA wager.
i've turned into a Spurs fan, so i keep up with every game they play. every one is a constant reminder to not bet on the NBA. last week they were beating Memphis 105-101 with 90 seconds left and lost 106-105. next game they blew out the Lakers. next game they beat a good Boston team on the road. then, last night, out of nowhere, they were beating Minnesota by 14 heading into the 4th quarter........and they lost 104-103.
if someone can find a rhythm betting on the NBA and can consistently make money doing so, I'd love to know who they are so we can sit down and have a few beers together
But of course OKC then wins the 3rd and 4th quarters. 😒
I'm done trying to time this friggin' inconsistent OKC team. Galaxy warned us - I should have listened sooner.
i'm a broken record, but the NBA is just insane. from one night to the next, from one quarter to the next, from one minute to the next, anything and everything is possible. for me to completely abstain from betting on a sport really is saying something, because i'll bet on anything. but i was on the verge of being placed a white room with padded walls if i placed one more NBA wager.
i've turned into a Spurs fan, so i keep up with every game they play. every one is a constant reminder to not bet on the NBA. last week they were beating Memphis 105-101 with 90 seconds left and lost 106-105. next game they blew out the Lakers. next game they beat a good Boston team on the road. then, last night, out of nowhere, they were beating Minnesota by 14 heading into the 4th quarter........and they lost 104-103.
if someone can find a rhythm betting on the NBA and can consistently make money doing so, I'd love to know who they are so we can sit down and have a few beers together
Then ya try to handicap form reversals, and see what happens. The game becomes as form dependable as mom's apple pie.
I recall the first NBA playoff game for OKC last season. It's the game that made me quit my wagering experiment until football season began.
OKC was a heavy favorite, had a 9 point lead with under three minutes to go. Then suddenly for them, the basket on their side of the court, a baseball couldn't fit in it. They lost by 3 points.
Frankly at that time even though I started off strong with MLB, those were going down the drain as well. Don't even get me started on the NHL. That chit is worse than everything else combined for form reversals. The last game I played there, a very heavy favorite has a 2 puck lead going into the third period, against a bottom feeder team, and they lose by a puck.
Oh yea I almost forgot. OKC wins the next playoff game, I think it was by around 40 points, and of course goes on to become NBA champs.
All that being said, one thing on this planet, if the real odds are even, the math will eventually even out. There is a scientific name for that, whose scientific name I forgot ten seconds after reading about it. But a good example are coin flips, the more ya do, the greater the odds of it evening out in the long run.
So for this season I decided to place more emphasis on the math, and it has worked out well thus far. We shall see if it continues. In a nutshell, I look for games which in my viewpoint, the odds including the juice, I think are in my favor.
That OKC 2nd quarter bet I lost yesterday, virtually every time with the games I noticed, when OKC lost the first quarter, they then won the second quarter. But that one didn't hit. Frankly that may be my last "quarter" bet, as I have had poor success with that. I think I'm 0-4.
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
As previously stated I won't be betting the playoffs. But thought I would throw out 3 picks FWIW. Remember, I finished next to last in the forum picks contest so proceed at your own risk.
GB over Bears because I have an early SB bet on GB. Hope the Bears turn on the sideline heaters this time and no targeting of Jordan Loves head.
Eagles/SF only the under.
Texans over Steelers. Only because I wish to see Rodgers lose. He cost me 6 winning bets this year. 3 times bet him he lost,3 times did not bet him he beat my play.
Good luck everyone with your bets.
Well 2 of 3 correct. No $ on the line.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
But of course OKC then wins the 3rd and 4th quarters. 😒
I'm done trying to time this friggin' inconsistent OKC team. Galaxy warned us - I should have listened sooner.
i'm a broken record, but the NBA is just insane. from one night to the next, from one quarter to the next, from one minute to the next, anything and everything is possible. for me to completely abstain from betting on a sport really is saying something, because i'll bet on anything. but i was on the verge of being placed a white room with padded walls if i placed one more NBA wager.
i've turned into a Spurs fan, so i keep up with every game they play. every one is a constant reminder to not bet on the NBA. last week they were beating Memphis 105-101 with 90 seconds left and lost 106-105. next game they blew out the Lakers. next game they beat a good Boston team on the road. then, last night, out of nowhere, they were beating Minnesota by 14 heading into the 4th quarter........and they lost 104-103.
if someone can find a rhythm betting on the NBA and can consistently make money doing so, I'd love to know who they are so we can sit down and have a few beers together
Far as basket betting a line from an Elton John song:"Don't ever ride on the devil's knee".
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
Don't know why I even bother looking at these NBA games. I guess because I did fairly well in the NBA last regular season, but can't seem to get a good rhythm going there this season.
Fortunately college BB is going quite well. Just caught Kansas beating the #2 team in the country by a lusty 21 points. Very happy about that pick, as I've been in a slump the past few days. Only played the spread but I'll take it.
I might follow the golf this season. Check out what the form looks like in the coming weeks, and see if I can figure if the math is in my favor at any time. Probably a form of madness, I admit.
Also might check out Kalshi which I think is legal now. I don't think Polymarket is legal anywhere yet. I'm thinking that maybe on Kalshi, if they offer golf, that there might be some interesting gaps in the odds between them and the books. Of course I'm sure there are thousands out there who already do that, but can't hurt to take a look. I'm thinking the higher odds players might have some interesting differences in the odds, and perhaps a top 20 or top 10 finish which sometimes happens with these long shots, could result in a nice score, just playing the math without doing any handicapping. Yes I know, another form of madness. LOL
Not doing too well as of late. Last night was not good. Went 3 for 7 but the three were ML short odds, didn't pay that much. Got hooked on the wrong side of a spread bet, and a 1 point loss on another spread bet. Even lost a short odds ML bet - very unhappy about that one.
Bankroll up 138% but way down from its high of 204% not too long ago.
Just when you think ya may have it mastered, they get ya. 😐
that will probably be the most difficult bet you place all year. there were 120 guys in the field and that particular wager required you to pick 3 players out of the 120 who will finish in the top 10. but @ $10 that was definitely a fun dart throw. and to this point a very good one! if you had hit that you definitely would have deserved to be handsomely compensated, and that's why DK was prepared to pay you 48 times what you bet, lol. unfortunately, it's dead because Chris Kirk missed the cut (didn't play well enough over the first two rounds, therefore was eliminated), but to this point it was a great stab because McNealy & Griffin ARE playing well thru 36 holes and are near the top of the leaderboard.
perhaps next time split those 3 guys up -- if you hit just one of them you'd make money
Comments
My viewpoint is if ya wish to beat the bookies, you can't be a homer and blindly always bet your favorite team.
That being said, I'm not crazy about the Eagles chances today, but I do like the math and feel I've got a slight edge in the money line. Might also play a Barkley rushing prop. Maybe receiving prop as well.
Eagles ML
I'm in on Jax, I think this is the weakest Bills team to make the playoffs with Josh Allen and he has a foot issue
I like SF but with +3.5
Pats I believe in and thinking it's going to be 28 to 17 type contest
Just played the Eagles ML - spread was at -5.5
Hopefully we both can hit.
Decided not to play any props. Didn't like the math on any of them.
Trevor Lawrence best get his head out of his rear end, he is playing horribly right now and it's infuriating
My early SB plays, from almost 3 months ago,are slowly fading. KC out,GB out. Bills only 1 left. Decided to skip final week of regular play and no playoff bets. Went with 4 more SB bets placed on Friday. Rams,Eagles,Broncos,Pats. Maybe I can buy a winner. At any rate that will be it. I don't play prop bets in the SB so hope 1 of these SB bets gets in.
taking steve's team and perk's team in an attempt to stop the losing streak
-5981.20
OKC prop - 2nd quarter winner
-6131.20
Glad you got that
Lost.
But of course OKC then wins the 3rd and 4th quarters. 😒
I'm done trying to time this friggin' inconsistent OKC team. Galaxy warned us - I should have listened sooner.
Jax losing yesterday cost me $1800 in winning bets
It's my own fault, I thought of doing similar bets with Jax +3.5 and even Bills ML. since that was the one game I was a little iffy on, everything else hit of course.
Was up about $700 on Saturday and ran it all into memories yesterday, drinking and punching stupid live bets in on the phone are not recommended lol
@perkdog thanks. sorry about Jacksonville -- they cost me too. i was tilting hard last night and that 200$ was very nearly 800$. so digging deep and finding discipline cost me. but i'm not complaining -- i just needed a winner.
the wild card games have been wild. the Rams were on life support, my team comes back from 21-3, Jags lost when I thought they'd win, Eagles lost when I thought they'd win. the only game that truly went the way i thought it would was last night.
so with that said, nothing would surprise me tonight. i think Pittsburgh sucks. another crap Tomlin team that slithered into the playoffs and should be one and done again. and yes, Houston has a great D but i can't get the home game against Vegas out of my head. i watched that entire game a few weeks ago (because I had money on it) and the Raiders -- yes the Raiders -- were able to effectively move the ball on them, score points, and almost steal the game. so yes, it is very possible for the Pittsburgh Rodgers to turn back the clock and look like the Green Bay Rodgers tonight.
but for the sake of my bet i'm simply going to take the -- in my opinion -- better team
-6028.64
Sincerely I. cannot envision any type of scenario. where Rodgers carves up that Houston D, DK playing or not
I'm with you on Houston as well brother
i'm a broken record, but the NBA is just insane. from one night to the next, from one quarter to the next, from one minute to the next, anything and everything is possible. for me to completely abstain from betting on a sport really is saying something, because i'll bet on anything. but i was on the verge of being placed a white room with padded walls if i placed one more NBA wager.
i've turned into a Spurs fan, so i keep up with every game they play. every one is a constant reminder to not bet on the NBA. last week they were beating Memphis 105-101 with 90 seconds left and lost 106-105. next game they blew out the Lakers. next game they beat a good Boston team on the road. then, last night, out of nowhere, they were beating Minnesota by 14 heading into the 4th quarter........and they lost 104-103.
if someone can find a rhythm betting on the NBA and can consistently make money doing so, I'd love to know who they are so we can sit down and have a few beers together
4 Sure this one is going over on The Jimmy The Greek Topic...
Lemme do some Ctrl+C-ing & Ctrl+V-ing...🤓💻🤓💻
4 the 2025 NFL Regular Season Thread...
Um...Ctrl+C & Ctrl+V is Geek Slang 4 Copying and Pasteing...
🤣😂🤣😂
Pasted:
The 1985 NFC Championship Game, played on January 12, 1986, was a dominant 24-0 shutout victory for the Chicago Bears over the Los Angeles Rams
Then ya try to handicap form reversals, and see what happens. The game becomes as form dependable as mom's apple pie.
I recall the first NBA playoff game for OKC last season. It's the game that made me quit my wagering experiment until football season began.
OKC was a heavy favorite, had a 9 point lead with under three minutes to go. Then suddenly for them, the basket on their side of the court, a baseball couldn't fit in it. They lost by 3 points.
Frankly at that time even though I started off strong with MLB, those were going down the drain as well. Don't even get me started on the NHL. That chit is worse than everything else combined for form reversals. The last game I played there, a very heavy favorite has a 2 puck lead going into the third period, against a bottom feeder team, and they lose by a puck.
Oh yea I almost forgot. OKC wins the next playoff game, I think it was by around 40 points, and of course goes on to become NBA champs.
All that being said, one thing on this planet, if the real odds are even, the math will eventually even out. There is a scientific name for that, whose scientific name I forgot ten seconds after reading about it. But a good example are coin flips, the more ya do, the greater the odds of it evening out in the long run.
So for this season I decided to place more emphasis on the math, and it has worked out well thus far. We shall see if it continues. In a nutshell, I look for games which in my viewpoint, the odds including the juice, I think are in my favor.
That OKC 2nd quarter bet I lost yesterday, virtually every time with the games I noticed, when OKC lost the first quarter, they then won the second quarter. But that one didn't hit. Frankly that may be my last "quarter" bet, as I have had poor success with that. I think I'm 0-4.
Well 2 of 3 correct. No $ on the line.
Spurs-Thunder tonight
I'm having trouble interpreting the Sirens. They're mumbling over what to play. 😵
Can't resist the Sirens. They're too strong.
Trying to make it 0-5 in my quarter wagering.
OKC wins 1st Q
@stevek
round 4
ding, ding, ding, ding
gl 💪
I only tickled this first quarter bet. No big deal either way. Didn't play anything else in that game.
If the Sirens got me on this again, they didn't get me too much. LOL
Galaxy's post brought out the win for me. 😊
bink! 🍻
now to see if OKC can snap the losing streak or if San Antonio will make it 4 in a row
I went back and forth on this game. Spurs did get a little bit of late money, line went to OKC -8.5
Just couldn't rule out any particular play. ML or spread, either team.
Far as basket betting a line from an Elton John song:"Don't ever ride on the devil's knee".
Don't know why I even bother looking at these NBA games. I guess because I did fairly well in the NBA last regular season, but can't seem to get a good rhythm going there this season.
Fortunately college BB is going quite well. Just caught Kansas beating the #2 team in the country by a lusty 21 points. Very happy about that pick, as I've been in a slump the past few days. Only played the spread but I'll take it.
first ⛳️ bets of the year
-5928.64
Good luck teeing off with the first bet. Large field. Probably scope out a few. Top 40 option at my book. Any thoughts on the return of Brooks?
May the course be with you guys.
I might follow the golf this season. Check out what the form looks like in the coming weeks, and see if I can figure if the math is in my favor at any time. Probably a form of madness, I admit.
Also might check out Kalshi which I think is legal now. I don't think Polymarket is legal anywhere yet. I'm thinking that maybe on Kalshi, if they offer golf, that there might be some interesting gaps in the odds between them and the books. Of course I'm sure there are thousands out there who already do that, but can't hurt to take a look. I'm thinking the higher odds players might have some interesting differences in the odds, and perhaps a top 20 or top 10 finish which sometimes happens with these long shots, could result in a nice score, just playing the math without doing any handicapping. Yes I know, another form of madness. LOL
@BLUEJAYWAY
i'm glad he's back. wish Bryson, Rahmbo and Cam would have followed suit, but maybe that will happen in the future.
gl with your plays
and here's my NFL play
-5928.64
Insanity bet:
Fordham - St Louis game
St Louis ML and
Fordham +18.5
Try to catch it in the middle to hit both bets. Fully expecting it not to work.
Well, one and done with that type of bet. 👎
That is a most interesting teaser.
Win or lose, I do like the odds on it.
Passed on this tournament. Will follow your plays.
slow start
should have taken Vijay!
No.idea how this one is looking but I did a quick little Golf dart throw
love it!!
after round 1:
Griffin - T3
McNealy - T17
Kirk - T59
would be epic if you connected lol
Solid return if you can score. Will keep an eye on it.
I was looking to put a little coin on Scottie, but I didn't see him in this one.
Not doing too well as of late. Last night was not good. Went 3 for 7 but the three were ML short odds, didn't pay that much. Got hooked on the wrong side of a spread bet, and a 1 point loss on another spread bet. Even lost a short odds ML bet - very unhappy about that one.
Bankroll up 138% but way down from its high of 204% not too long ago.
Just when you think ya may have it mastered, they get ya. 😐
not sure what's more impressive
62-year-old Vijay Singh making the cut in a PGA Tour event
or
perkdog with two guys inside the top 20 after the 2nd round (Mav McNealy - T6, Ben Griffin - T14, Chris Kirk - CUT)
perk be like, man forget the NFL Playoffs, WHO'S IN THE FIELD AT THE AMERICAN EXPRESS NEXT WEEK?
I'm thinking max-bet on Perkdog's American Express golf picks.
😂😂😂
Does my bet stand a chance or is that kirk guy out?
I know as much about golf as I do about African Soccer
Bankroll still going the wrong way.
The NFL on CBS will be right back with Brent Musburger, Phyllis George, Irv Cross, and Jimmy The Greek...
@perkdog
that will probably be the most difficult bet you place all year. there were 120 guys in the field and that particular wager required you to pick 3 players out of the 120 who will finish in the top 10. but @ $10 that was definitely a fun dart throw. and to this point a very good one! if you had hit that you definitely would have deserved to be handsomely compensated, and that's why DK was prepared to pay you 48 times what you bet, lol. unfortunately, it's dead because Chris Kirk missed the cut (didn't play well enough over the first two rounds, therefore was eliminated), but to this point it was a great stab because McNealy & Griffin ARE playing well thru 36 holes and are near the top of the leaderboard.
perhaps next time split those 3 guys up -- if you hit just one of them you'd make money