@galaxy27 said:
we've discussed this game so much that i decided to stick a little on it. but before i get to how i handicapped it, first i need to share something interesting that happened.
the spread finally popped up at my book. after i mulled everything over, i was ready to hit Villanova at +48.5. when i clicked on 'place bet,' i was notified that the line had changed. and it wasn't nudged......it dropped by 2.5 points to 46. dayum, i thought. so i had to start all over. typed my wager in a second time and tried to hit 'place bet' once again. nope. more movement. this time it bumped to 46.5. third time was a charm. serious volatility.
now for why i'm taking Nova. not only is the trend your friend (Penn St is 0-2 in covering 40+ the previous two weeks), but remember what i said earlier? remember who is coming to Happy Valley next? not only could Penn St be looking ahead to a gargantuan game against Oregon, but the absolute last thing on earth they want is to get key guys hurt in the midst of a blowout against Villanova.
my hope is that once they get up big, the starters come out. if they win by 47 or 48 i will be none too happy, because i wanted those extra 2 points.
gl with Tennessee perk! 🍻
-3962.92
Way to go. Nail the Ravens Sunday.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@galaxy27 said:
we've discussed this game so much that i decided to stick a little on it. but before i get to how i handicapped it, first i need to share something interesting that happened.
the spread finally popped up at my book. after i mulled everything over, i was ready to hit Villanova at +48.5. when i clicked on 'place bet,' i was notified that the line had changed. and it wasn't nudged......it dropped by 2.5 points to 46. dayum, i thought. so i had to start all over. typed my wager in a second time and tried to hit 'place bet' once again. nope. more movement. this time it bumped to 46.5. third time was a charm. serious volatility.
now for why i'm taking Nova. not only is the trend your friend (Penn St is 0-2 in covering 40+ the previous two weeks), but remember what i said earlier? remember who is coming to Happy Valley next? not only could Penn St be looking ahead to a gargantuan game against Oregon, but the absolute last thing on earth they want is to get key guys hurt in the midst of a blowout against Villanova.
my hope is that once they get up big, the starters come out. if they win by 47 or 48 i will be none too happy, because i wanted those extra 2 points.
@perkdog said:
I'm with you on all those games except I didn't touch AZ/Carolina
I threw out the Miami/N.E. game as my untouchable match up this week. I used all of the remaining 15 games on the schedule in various combinations of parlays of strictly moneyline favorites. It was a winning strategy last week, which was a continuation of a winning strategy from last season. The Packers have started this week off right for me.
i'd be remiss if i didn't touch on the bet i placed yesterday. it's stories like this that make this thread so great. talking about the good, the bad, the ugly, and in this case, the exceedingly fortuitous and insane.
so, early in the evening yesterday i had somewhere to be. thus i had to stop following my wager on the Penn St-Nova game. when i did, the 3rd quarter had just ended. Nova was down 31-0. i was getting 46.5. they could give up two more touchdowns in the 4th and i'd still be good.
later in the evening i pulled up the final score on my phone. when i saw 52-6, i knew i had to find out what exactly happened when i had a chance. when i became aware, it became an instant classic -- all things considered, from the time i placed the bet until the very last play of the game.
to rehash what i said yesterday, i had a hell of a time sticking that bet in because the line was moving around like a Mexican jumping bean. from 48.5 on my first attempt to 46 on my second attempt to 46.5 on my third attempt, which was successful.
late last night i pulled up the play-by-play on ESPN to see how it shook out. in the 4th, Villanova gave up a touchdown. 38-0.
then another. 45-0. then they threw a pick 6 for another Penn St TD and the lead swelled to 52-0 with a little over 6 minutes left. i needed a quasi-miracle because Villanova's offense had done next to nothing the entire game.
so Nova gets the ball back for what was going to be their final possession of the game. they embarked on a SIXTEEN play drive. with 52 seconds left they completed a pass to the Penn St ONE yard line.
first down: run for no gain.
timeout
second down: run for a loss of 2 yards
timeout
third down: incomplete pass
fourth down at the 3 yard line with 4 seconds left: false start
fourth down at the 8 yard line with 4 seconds left, final play of the game: touchdown
no time for the extra point. game over. 52-6.
now, that was only a $55 bet for me. but you just know there was a bettor out there on the precipice of a myocardial infarction at the end of that game. i can't imagine. the way that game ended + what i had to go through to stick a bet in + where my landing spot was made it one of the craziest wagers i've ever placed. the second failed attempt to put it in resulted in the extra half point i needed. but then i thought to myself, imagine getting +45.5 in that game. Villanova scores on the final play of the game, but no time remaining to kick the XP to get inside the number.
@perkdog said:
I'm with you on all those games except I didn't touch AZ/Carolina
I threw out the Miami/N.E. game as my untouchable match up this week. I used all of the remaining 15 games on the schedule in various combinations of parlays of strictly moneyline favorites. It was a winning strategy last week, which was a continuation of a winning strategy from last season. The Packers have started this week off right for me.
@galaxy27 said:
i'd be remiss if i didn't touch on the bet i placed yesterday. it's stories like this that make this thread so great. talking about the good, the bad, the ugly, and in this case, the exceedingly fortuitous and insane.
so, early in the evening yesterday i had somewhere to be. thus i had to stop following my wager on the Penn St-Nova game. when i did, the 3rd quarter had just ended. Nova was down 31-0. i was getting 46.5. they could give up two more touchdowns in the 4th and i'd still be good.
later in the evening i pulled up the final score on my phone. when i saw 52-6, i knew i had to find out what exactly happened when i had a chance. when i became aware, it became an instant classic -- all things considered, from the time i placed the bet until the very last play of the game.
to rehash what i said yesterday, i had a hell of a time sticking that bet in because the line was moving around like a Mexican jumping bean. from 48.5 on my first attempt to 46 on my second attempt to 46.5 on my third attempt, which was successful.
late last night i pulled up the play-by-play on ESPN to see how it shook out. in the 4th, Villanova gave up a touchdown. 38-0.
then another. 45-0. then they threw a pick 6 for another Penn St TD and the lead swelled to 52-0 with a little over 6 minutes left. i needed a quasi-miracle because Villanova's offense had done next to nothing the entire game.
so Nova gets the ball back for what was going to be their final possession of the game. they embarked on a SIXTEEN play drive. with 52 seconds left they completed a pass to the Penn St ONE yard line.
first down: run for no gain.
timeout
second down: run for a loss of 2 yards
timeout
third down: incomplete pass
fourth down at the 3 yard line with 4 seconds left: false start
fourth down at the 8 yard line with 4 seconds left, final play of the game: touchdown
no time for the extra point. game over. 52-6.
now, that was only a $55 bet for me. but you just know there was a bettor out there on the precipice of a myocardial infarction at the end of that game. i can't imagine. the way that game ended + what i had to go through to stick a bet in + where my landing spot was made it one of the craziest wagers i've ever placed. the second failed attempt to put it in resulted in the extra half point i needed. but then i thought to myself, imagine getting +45.5 in that game. Villanova scores on the final play of the game, but no time remaining to kick the XP to get inside the number.
the hook, baby!
Glad I didn't watch it. I was just following it on the ESPN scores site. It looked hopeless, so I went out to Best Buy, shopping to get some computer chit for a project I'm working on. I came back and saw the final score and figured Villanova scored a few cheap field goals.
Now I feel even worse than I did before. Thanks a lot Galaxy, you're a real pal.
😉😉
All kidding aside, with just a little better horse chit luck, at least I'd be 3-2 right now. But a loss is a loss, and that's that.
Hopefully the Eagles later today will give me a confidence builder.
Okay I can't wait, I need one right now. How can the Ravens possibly lose this game today?
Raven ML for an easy 10% on the money. Better than a CD. LOL
@galaxy27 said:
i'd be remiss if i didn't touch on the bet i placed yesterday. it's stories like this that make this thread so great. talking about the good, the bad, the ugly, and in this case, the exceedingly fortuitous and insane.
so, early in the evening yesterday i had somewhere to be. thus i had to stop following my wager on the Penn St-Nova game. when i did, the 3rd quarter had just ended. Nova was down 31-0. i was getting 46.5. they could give up two more touchdowns in the 4th and i'd still be good.
later in the evening i pulled up the final score on my phone. when i saw 52-6, i knew i had to find out what exactly happened when i had a chance. when i became aware, it became an instant classic -- all things considered, from the time i placed the bet until the very last play of the game.
to rehash what i said yesterday, i had a hell of a time sticking that bet in because the line was moving around like a Mexican jumping bean. from 48.5 on my first attempt to 46 on my second attempt to 46.5 on my third attempt, which was successful.
late last night i pulled up the play-by-play on ESPN to see how it shook out. in the 4th, Villanova gave up a touchdown. 38-0.
then another. 45-0. then they threw a pick 6 for another Penn St TD and the lead swelled to 52-0 with a little over 6 minutes left. i needed a quasi-miracle because Villanova's offense had done next to nothing the entire game.
so Nova gets the ball back for what was going to be their final possession of the game. they embarked on a SIXTEEN play drive. with 52 seconds left they completed a pass to the Penn St ONE yard line.
first down: run for no gain.
timeout
second down: run for a loss of 2 yards
timeout
third down: incomplete pass
fourth down at the 3 yard line with 4 seconds left: false start
fourth down at the 8 yard line with 4 seconds left, final play of the game: touchdown
no time for the extra point. game over. 52-6.
now, that was only a $55 bet for me. but you just know there was a bettor out there on the precipice of a myocardial infarction at the end of that game. i can't imagine. the way that game ended + what i had to go through to stick a bet in + where my landing spot was made it one of the craziest wagers i've ever placed. the second failed attempt to put it in resulted in the extra half point i needed. but then i thought to myself, imagine getting +45.5 in that game. Villanova scores on the final play of the game, but no time remaining to kick the XP to get inside the number.
the hook, baby!
This is the BOTY,Bet Of The Year, based on how you got the bet in, and how the team covered.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
This was a nice hit for me and what it did was put
me up like $25 for the day
Gotta say I'm absolutely disgusted over the Pats game sure they won and that is great but what in the actual **** when I bet Drake Maye to throw for 250 yards and the Fins go up with minimal time on the clock like less than 5 minutes and I need like 24.yards passing so. I'm high fiving my buddy and then of course the kickoff return for a TD just destroys my play.
Honestly I'm literally at the point where it's just impossible to consistently win NFL, I had $300 on Maye to hit that number and it gets napalmed like that so whatever I'm crying over actually winning today but that frosted my ass, I should have been a $600+ winner but nope that return did a full stop on that.
I shouldn't complain since I survived the day a winner but still.
My buddy followed me on the Maye play and it cost him a few hundred
Very good week so for the favorites. Playing the moneyline favorites in parlays is about as similar to passive investing in an S&P index fund as you can get. Lol
You're not always, or ever, going to get all of them right, but unless it's just a weekend for the dogs, you're gonna do alright, mama.
Rodgers looked old, Broncos committed a stupid penalty to complete the giveaway, and the Falcons wore down the Vikings. Those things happen, and you just shrug, and count the other 11 winners after Sunday night.
If the Texans and Chargers both win tonight, it'll just pad the stats on another banner weekend.
the only reason i'm beating this dead horse is because i just saw the final play in the Penn St-Villanova game. this spectacle won me 50, but forget about that. imagine, just imagine, having a lot of money on Penn St and this happening to you. you've gotta see it to believe it 😂
@galaxy27 said:
the only reason i'm beating this dead horse is because i just saw the final play in the Penn St-Villanova game. this spectacle won me 50, but forget about that. imagine, just imagine, having a lot of money on Penn St and this happening to you. you've gotta see it to believe it 😂
go to 2:50
Somebody remind me to take Galaxy off my holiday card list.
Somebody remind me to take Galaxy off my holiday card list.
did you have money on that game? i was under the impression that you were making Penn St picks against the spread for funsies
if you did i never would have said a word
Come on, I'm just kidding with ya.
That being said, I don't like losing, whether it's for money or not. The online poker site I play at for fake chips, I guard those chips like it's Fort Knox. All 86 million of them at last count. That and a buck will buy ya a cheap cup of coffee. LOL
That's what worried me at the close of the half, it looked too good. But I felt negative vibes 5 minutes before the half ending when the play slowed. Only to continue all of the 3rd quarter and 5 minutes into the 4th. I knew play would pick up after that but come up short. The clock was against me. Can't beat father time.
I've seen many times in the past a low o/u with 2 decent offensive teams and wonder why. No way should go under with a low number, but they do.
You've been on a good run. Stay on track.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
just confirming. it's not cool to discuss a game ad nauseum when a fellow poster was on the wrong side of things with money involved
Nah, don't mind at all. I really don't. Even if I had money on it. You had a nice "hook" win there, and it's fun to discuss wins like that.
That being said, I wasn't about to open that dam video. LOL
The main thing I like about this thread is we all root for each other. That's the important thing. Except of course when we've got a difference of opinion on a particular game outcome. That's certainly going to happen throughout any season.
Frankly, I've been considering making a deposit at FD or DK, but only if I'm 100% convinced I can beat the game. Last year, I took a mythical bankroll of $500 and ran it up to $983, just with dime and quarter type bets. I'd punch in the bet at FD or DK and it told me the payout, even though I had no money in there.
But the NBA playoffs came, and I went south, the paper bankroll went down to $800 and I got hissed off and stopped making calls here, not even the mythical bets.
I'm not very happy about getting off to a 3-5 start on calls here with football season. I started out with a fresh mythical bankroll of $500 again, and combined with those calls and live bets, I'm up around $45. Mainly because I hit nicely on the Eagles including some props. If I see continued progress, and fully believe that disciplined sports betting with today's computers can be beat, at least by me, then and only then will I make a deposit. And only if I see each game as a risk not a gamble, as I haven't "gambled" in well over 20 years and am not about to start now.
Risk I'm fine with. I do that every day in business and in my stock market portfolio which has treated me extremely well. Cards and coins as well. I'm not even sure why I fool around with this sports betting chit, but for whatever reason it intrigues me. So I'll continue doing it until I figure it's hopeless, then I'll just be a good sports fan like I am now.
One last thing, that $983, almost doubling my fictional money, somebody might think that was proof enough. No, and I'll tell ya why. A decent portion of it was made on the Eagles and Barkley prop bets last season. If it wasn't for that, I know I would have ended up below $500 and possibly lost the entire amount. Same as now, yea I'm up $45 but if the Eagles hadn't come thru for me, then I would be down to around approximately $450. The Eagles aren't going to keep winning forever, that is impossible. So I'm still quite a ways away from thinking I can beat this game. And if I can't, then I can't. I'm not worried about it either way. 😎
That's what worried me at the close of the half, it looked too good. But I felt negative vibes 5 minutes before the half ending when the play slowed. Only to continue all of the 3rd quarter and 5 minutes into the 4th. I knew play would pick up after that but come up short. The clock was against me. Can't beat father time.
I've seen many times in the past a low o/u with 2 decent offensive teams and wonder why. No way should go under with a low number, but they do.
You've been on a good run. Stay on track.
I was watching that game on ESPN scores, and the odds on the previously mentioned websites. Early in the second quarter the O/U if I'm remembering right went up to 53 1/2. The score was 14-10 with around ten minutes left in the 2nd quarter. Then both dam teams started laying goose eggs on ya.
Reason #1000000000000000 why I refuse to throw big money at NFL bets, nowhere in this universe is Brock Bowers not going to get 50 yards when his team is playing behind the entire game except when I need him to get 50 and he gets 38
Reason #1000000000000000 why I refuse to throw big money at NFL bets, nowhere in this universe is Brock Bowers not going to get 50 yards when his team is playing behind the entire game except when I need him to get 50 and he gets 38
There's losing and then there's losing. A brutal loss.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
Reason #1000000000000000 why I refuse to throw big money at NFL bets, nowhere in this universe is Brock Bowers not going to get 50 yards when his team is playing behind the entire game except when I need him to get 50 and he gets 38
There's losing and then there's losing. A brutal loss.
Oh brother I'm numb to it, I didn't even get angry when I saw that
I've lost so. many parlays by 1 leg it's absolutely comical
I think the way it would work is that the sports book would have margin on each bet and as you add more "legs" to the bet those probabilities would multiply meaning the sports book's odds are becoming exponentially better. I think this would mean that you're handing them money usually. No? What am I missing?
@bgr said:
I think the way it would work is that the sports book would have margin on each bet and as you add more "legs" to the bet those probabilities would multiply meaning the sports book's odds are becoming exponentially better. I think this would mean that you're handing them money usually. No? What am I missing?
You are correct. Every gambler worth his salt will admit to you that parlays are terrible, terrible bets, just because of exactly how you described it.
However, and it's a big however, as long as you are picking winners, as long as you've figured something out and can be correct in your picks, the parlay play is the much better payout.
Put $10 each on any 3 moneyline games individually and see what the payouts would be for each game.
Then put those same 3 games in a parlay and see what that same $30 worth of bets on that single parlay would net you if you are correct. How do you feel about those 3 games?
That's my play every week in the NFL. 3 leg moneyline favorites. I don't follow through and do a round-robin bet to cover every possible mix, but I'm covering enough combinations that unless the dogs have their day (which, no doubt happens once it twice a year), I'm going to win significantly more money weekly than if I picked games individually.
@bgr said:
I think the way it would work is that the sports book would have margin on each bet and as you add more "legs" to the bet those probabilities would multiply meaning the sports book's odds are becoming exponentially better. I think this would mean that you're handing them money usually. No? What am I missing?
You are correct. Every gambler worth his salt will admit to you that parlays are terrible, terrible bets, just because of exactly how you described it.
However, and it's a big however, as long as you are picking winners, as long as you've figured something out and can be correct in your picks, the parlay play is the much better payout.
Put $10 each on any 3 moneyline games individually and see what the payouts would be for each game.
Then put those same 3 games in a parlay and see what that same $30 worth of bets on that single parlay would net you if you are correct. How do you feel about those 3 games?
That's my play every week in the NFL. 3 leg moneyline favorites. I don't follow through and do a round-robin bet to cover every possible mix, but I'm covering enough combinations that unless the dogs have their day (which, no doubt happens once it twice a year), I'm going to win significantly more money weekly than if I picked games individually.
So it becomes an exercise in figuring out whether the juice is worth the squeeze. What stops someone from finding a bunch of highly-correlated events to add as legs for a parlay? Do they restrict what you can combine?
@bgr said:
I think the way it would work is that the sports book would have margin on each bet and as you add more "legs" to the bet those probabilities would multiply meaning the sports book's odds are becoming exponentially better. I think this would mean that you're handing them money usually. No? What am I missing?
You are correct. Every gambler worth his salt will admit to you that parlays are terrible, terrible bets, just because of exactly how you described it.
However, and it's a big however, as long as you are picking winners, as long as you've figured something out and can be correct in your picks, the parlay play is the much better payout.
Put $10 each on any 3 moneyline games individually and see what the payouts would be for each game.
Then put those same 3 games in a parlay and see what that same $30 worth of bets on that single parlay would net you if you are correct. How do you feel about those 3 games?
That's my play every week in the NFL. 3 leg moneyline favorites. I don't follow through and do a round-robin bet to cover every possible mix, but I'm covering enough combinations that unless the dogs have their day (which, no doubt happens once it twice a year), I'm going to win significantly more money weekly than if I picked games individually.
So it becomes an exercise in figuring out whether the juice is worth the squeeze. What stops someone from finding a bunch of highly-correlated events to add as legs for a parlay? Do they restrict what you can combine?
My apps cap me at a maximum 25 leg parlay. I've maybe tried to bet a 25 legger 5 or 6 times on a lark. I have actually hit 2 of them that I shared much earlier in this thread, and one, I got 24 out of 25, with my one loss being that game where Miami University's coach tried to get the running back 100 yards instead of just kneeling to run out the clock. The running back fumbled and Miami promptly lost the game and sent my parlay down the drain. My picks in every parlay were heavy, heavy, heavy favorites, and they won as expected.
They do sometimes tell you that certain events cannot be parlayed together. I can't think of a good example offhand to give you, though.
I'm going to give away half of my secret......I watch a very minimal amount of sports outside of MLB. It's not necessary, though, for me to know much about what I'm betting on. For mainstream sports, the betting lines tell me all that I need to know.
For an NFL week with 16 games on the schedule, I pick one game and eliminate it from my plays. Week 1 was Philadelphia/Dallas. Week 2 was Miami/N.E. I'm not going to share how I determine which game, as maybe it's something as random as a dart board? 🤷🏻♂️
Then, I just use a 3X5 grid using every one of the 15 remaining games bettingthe moneyline favorite, and then another grid, and then another grid, and then another.....
Maybe those grids are filled out using a dart board, too?🤷🏻♂️
Anyway, here's an example for Week 1. I got my bets down when Buffalo was favored, so only had 2 losses on the week. I did not have any grids where both losses were in the same parlay. You can see though, that I would have won 3 out of every 5 parlays on all of my grids.
.
.
.
.
.
.
For Week 2, I got lucky by correctly throwing out Miami, as they were one of the favorites that lost. Only 4 other underdogs lost, so even with equal dispersion, I'm guaranteed to win one out of 5 parlays. But, in this case, I had several grids where all 3 teams were losers, leaving one loser for the other 4 plays, winning 3 out of 5, and I had several other grids where there were 2 losers in 2 different plays, still leaving winners for 3 out of 5 plays. And still, yet, I had several grids where I had 2 losers together and single losers in 2 other plays, leaving me winning 2 out of 5 plays.
.
.
.
.
.
.
It's as passive as a gambling system as you can get, and now that I've spilled the secret to unfathomable riches, the underdogs will likely rise up and bite my ass!
I felt strong about these 3 games so I bet each team to. score 3 runs in 7 innings, knowing how parlays work and figuring I'd lose just 1 leg per usual I backed my bet up with these 3 teams scoring 2 runs in 7 innings as well
Case in point as I figured I would I came 1 run away in the Padres game who by the way scored their 3td run in the 8th inning so 1 inning and 1 run late cost me a $500+ winner but I backed my bet up so I ended up winning like $50 bucks and change so all good
Comments
Glad to see Perkdog squeezed one out as well.
Nice score.
Way to go. Nail the Ravens Sunday.
Thanks, I was actually glad Tennessee lost the game as well
They miss an easy FG to force the game into OT to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory
I almost took the ML, glad I was able to. steal. one with the 4 points
The hook paid off for you!
Had a $25 bonus bet. Threw it on this 5 legger for today.
.
I'm with you on all those games except I didn't touch AZ/Carolina
I threw out the Miami/N.E. game as my untouchable match up this week. I used all of the remaining 15 games on the schedule in various combinations of parlays of strictly moneyline favorites. It was a winning strategy last week, which was a continuation of a winning strategy from last season. The Packers have started this week off right for me.
i'd be remiss if i didn't touch on the bet i placed yesterday. it's stories like this that make this thread so great. talking about the good, the bad, the ugly, and in this case, the exceedingly fortuitous and insane.
so, early in the evening yesterday i had somewhere to be. thus i had to stop following my wager on the Penn St-Nova game. when i did, the 3rd quarter had just ended. Nova was down 31-0. i was getting 46.5. they could give up two more touchdowns in the 4th and i'd still be good.
later in the evening i pulled up the final score on my phone. when i saw 52-6, i knew i had to find out what exactly happened when i had a chance. when i became aware, it became an instant classic -- all things considered, from the time i placed the bet until the very last play of the game.
to rehash what i said yesterday, i had a hell of a time sticking that bet in because the line was moving around like a Mexican jumping bean. from 48.5 on my first attempt to 46 on my second attempt to 46.5 on my third attempt, which was successful.
late last night i pulled up the play-by-play on ESPN to see how it shook out. in the 4th, Villanova gave up a touchdown. 38-0.
then another. 45-0. then they threw a pick 6 for another Penn St TD and the lead swelled to 52-0 with a little over 6 minutes left. i needed a quasi-miracle because Villanova's offense had done next to nothing the entire game.
so Nova gets the ball back for what was going to be their final possession of the game. they embarked on a SIXTEEN play drive. with 52 seconds left they completed a pass to the Penn St ONE yard line.
first down: run for no gain.
timeout
second down: run for a loss of 2 yards
timeout
third down: incomplete pass
fourth down at the 3 yard line with 4 seconds left: false start
fourth down at the 8 yard line with 4 seconds left, final play of the game: touchdown
no time for the extra point. game over. 52-6.
now, that was only a $55 bet for me. but you just know there was a bettor out there on the precipice of a myocardial infarction at the end of that game. i can't imagine. the way that game ended + what i had to go through to stick a bet in + where my landing spot was made it one of the craziest wagers i've ever placed. the second failed attempt to put it in resulted in the extra half point i needed. but then i thought to myself, imagine getting +45.5 in that game. Villanova scores on the final play of the game, but no time remaining to kick the XP to get inside the number.
the hook, baby!
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
increasing my exposure with another p-lay
go count, go Ravens, go perk, go Lions, go blue, go Cardinals
🤙🤙🤙🤙🤙
-3912.92
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Let's go brother!!! ,🍻
Best of luck! 🍻
Glad I didn't watch it. I was just following it on the ESPN scores site. It looked hopeless, so I went out to Best Buy, shopping to get some computer chit for a project I'm working on. I came back and saw the final score and figured Villanova scored a few cheap field goals.
Now I feel even worse than I did before. Thanks a lot Galaxy, you're a real pal.
😉😉
All kidding aside, with just a little better horse chit luck, at least I'd be 3-2 right now. But a loss is a loss, and that's that.
Hopefully the Eagles later today will give me a confidence builder.
Okay I can't wait, I need one right now. How can the Ravens possibly lose this game today?
Raven ML for an easy 10% on the money. Better than a CD. LOL
This is the BOTY,Bet Of The Year, based on how you got the bet in, and how the team covered.
Unless I missed something, seems like everyone here had a pretty good weekend.
Especially hitting those parlays. 👍
This was a nice hit for me and what it did was put
me up like $25 for the day
Gotta say I'm absolutely disgusted over the Pats game sure they won and that is great but what in the actual **** when I bet Drake Maye to throw for 250 yards and the Fins go up with minimal time on the clock like less than 5 minutes and I need like 24.yards passing so. I'm high fiving my buddy and then of course the kickoff return for a TD just destroys my play.
Honestly I'm literally at the point where it's just impossible to consistently win NFL, I had $300 on Maye to hit that number and it gets napalmed like that so whatever I'm crying over actually winning today but that frosted my ass, I should have been a $600+ winner but nope that return did a full stop on that.
I shouldn't complain since I survived the day a winner but still.
My buddy followed me on the Maye play and it cost him a few hundred
NFL is TOUGH
No ghost leg needed. 👍
Minn. Atl game starting to remind me of last weeks Minn/Bears game.
Very good week so for the favorites. Playing the moneyline favorites in parlays is about as similar to passive investing in an S&P index fund as you can get. Lol
You're not always, or ever, going to get all of them right, but unless it's just a weekend for the dogs, you're gonna do alright, mama.
Rodgers looked old, Broncos committed a stupid penalty to complete the giveaway, and the Falcons wore down the Vikings. Those things happen, and you just shrug, and count the other 11 winners after Sunday night.
If the Texans and Chargers both win tonight, it'll just pad the stats on another banner weekend.
a little teaser pleaser tonight
-3605.19
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
1 parlay out. 2 alive, both dependant on the over,42.5, in the Houston game.
Good Luck fellas!!!
the only reason i'm beating this dead horse is because i just saw the final play in the Penn St-Villanova game. this spectacle won me 50, but forget about that. imagine, just imagine, having a lot of money on Penn St and this happening to you. you've gotta see it to believe it 😂
go to 2:50
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Way to stiff the over boys. Just go scoreless in all of the 3rd quarter. Then resume action in the 4th when time is short.
Somebody remind me to take Galaxy off my holiday card list.
Then continue same in the 4th. 3 downs from the 1 empty. Onto next week.
did you have money on that game? i was under the impression that you were making Penn St picks against the spread for funsies
if you did i never would have said a word
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
@BLUEJAYWAY
your over was looking so good
these games are so utterly unpredictable
sorry brother
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Come on, I'm just kidding with ya.
That being said, I don't like losing, whether it's for money or not. The online poker site I play at for fake chips, I guard those chips like it's Fort Knox. All 86 million of them at last count. That and a buck will buy ya a cheap cup of coffee. LOL
@stevek
just confirming. it's not cool to discuss a game ad nauseum when a fellow poster was on the wrong side of things with money involved
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
That's what worried me at the close of the half, it looked too good. But I felt negative vibes 5 minutes before the half ending when the play slowed. Only to continue all of the 3rd quarter and 5 minutes into the 4th. I knew play would pick up after that but come up short. The clock was against me. Can't beat father time.
I've seen many times in the past a low o/u with 2 decent offensive teams and wonder why. No way should go under with a low number, but they do.
You've been on a good run. Stay on track.
Nah, don't mind at all. I really don't. Even if I had money on it. You had a nice "hook" win there, and it's fun to discuss wins like that.
That being said, I wasn't about to open that dam video. LOL
The main thing I like about this thread is we all root for each other. That's the important thing. Except of course when we've got a difference of opinion on a particular game outcome. That's certainly going to happen throughout any season.
Frankly, I've been considering making a deposit at FD or DK, but only if I'm 100% convinced I can beat the game. Last year, I took a mythical bankroll of $500 and ran it up to $983, just with dime and quarter type bets. I'd punch in the bet at FD or DK and it told me the payout, even though I had no money in there.
But the NBA playoffs came, and I went south, the paper bankroll went down to $800 and I got hissed off and stopped making calls here, not even the mythical bets.
I'm not very happy about getting off to a 3-5 start on calls here with football season. I started out with a fresh mythical bankroll of $500 again, and combined with those calls and live bets, I'm up around $45. Mainly because I hit nicely on the Eagles including some props. If I see continued progress, and fully believe that disciplined sports betting with today's computers can be beat, at least by me, then and only then will I make a deposit. And only if I see each game as a risk not a gamble, as I haven't "gambled" in well over 20 years and am not about to start now.
Risk I'm fine with. I do that every day in business and in my stock market portfolio which has treated me extremely well. Cards and coins as well. I'm not even sure why I fool around with this sports betting chit, but for whatever reason it intrigues me. So I'll continue doing it until I figure it's hopeless, then I'll just be a good sports fan like I am now.
One last thing, that $983, almost doubling my fictional money, somebody might think that was proof enough. No, and I'll tell ya why. A decent portion of it was made on the Eagles and Barkley prop bets last season. If it wasn't for that, I know I would have ended up below $500 and possibly lost the entire amount. Same as now, yea I'm up $45 but if the Eagles hadn't come thru for me, then I would be down to around approximately $450. The Eagles aren't going to keep winning forever, that is impossible. So I'm still quite a ways away from thinking I can beat this game. And if I can't, then I can't. I'm not worried about it either way. 😎
I was watching that game on ESPN scores, and the odds on the previously mentioned websites. Early in the second quarter the O/U if I'm remembering right went up to 53 1/2. The score was 14-10 with around ten minutes left in the 2nd quarter. Then both dam teams started laying goose eggs on ya.
Sports betting. Tough way to make a living. 😐
Reason #1000000000000000 why I refuse to throw big money at NFL bets, nowhere in this universe is Brock Bowers not going to get 50 yards when his team is playing behind the entire game except when I need him to get 50 and he gets 38
There's losing and then there's losing. A brutal loss.
Oh brother I'm numb to it, I didn't even get angry when I saw that
I've lost so. many parlays by 1 leg it's absolutely comical
I think the way it would work is that the sports book would have margin on each bet and as you add more "legs" to the bet those probabilities would multiply meaning the sports book's odds are becoming exponentially better. I think this would mean that you're handing them money usually. No? What am I missing?
You are correct. Every gambler worth his salt will admit to you that parlays are terrible, terrible bets, just because of exactly how you described it.
However, and it's a big however, as long as you are picking winners, as long as you've figured something out and can be correct in your picks, the parlay play is the much better payout.
Put $10 each on any 3 moneyline games individually and see what the payouts would be for each game.
Then put those same 3 games in a parlay and see what that same $30 worth of bets on that single parlay would net you if you are correct. How do you feel about those 3 games?
That's my play every week in the NFL. 3 leg moneyline favorites. I don't follow through and do a round-robin bet to cover every possible mix, but I'm covering enough combinations that unless the dogs have their day (which, no doubt happens once it twice a year), I'm going to win significantly more money weekly than if I picked games individually.
So it becomes an exercise in figuring out whether the juice is worth the squeeze. What stops someone from finding a bunch of highly-correlated events to add as legs for a parlay? Do they restrict what you can combine?
My apps cap me at a maximum 25 leg parlay. I've maybe tried to bet a 25 legger 5 or 6 times on a lark. I have actually hit 2 of them that I shared much earlier in this thread, and one, I got 24 out of 25, with my one loss being that game where Miami University's coach tried to get the running back 100 yards instead of just kneeling to run out the clock. The running back fumbled and Miami promptly lost the game and sent my parlay down the drain. My picks in every parlay were heavy, heavy, heavy favorites, and they won as expected.
They do sometimes tell you that certain events cannot be parlayed together. I can't think of a good example offhand to give you, though.
I'm going to give away half of my secret......I watch a very minimal amount of sports outside of MLB. It's not necessary, though, for me to know much about what I'm betting on. For mainstream sports, the betting lines tell me all that I need to know.
For an NFL week with 16 games on the schedule, I pick one game and eliminate it from my plays. Week 1 was Philadelphia/Dallas. Week 2 was Miami/N.E. I'm not going to share how I determine which game, as maybe it's something as random as a dart board? 🤷🏻♂️
Then, I just use a 3X5 grid using every one of the 15 remaining games bettingthe moneyline favorite, and then another grid, and then another grid, and then another.....
Maybe those grids are filled out using a dart board, too?🤷🏻♂️
Anyway, here's an example for Week 1. I got my bets down when Buffalo was favored, so only had 2 losses on the week. I did not have any grids where both losses were in the same parlay. You can see though, that I would have won 3 out of every 5 parlays on all of my grids.
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For Week 2, I got lucky by correctly throwing out Miami, as they were one of the favorites that lost. Only 4 other underdogs lost, so even with equal dispersion, I'm guaranteed to win one out of 5 parlays. But, in this case, I had several grids where all 3 teams were losers, leaving one loser for the other 4 plays, winning 3 out of 5, and I had several other grids where there were 2 losers in 2 different plays, still leaving winners for 3 out of 5 plays. And still, yet, I had several grids where I had 2 losers together and single losers in 2 other plays, leaving me winning 2 out of 5 plays.
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It's as passive as a gambling system as you can get, and now that I've spilled the secret to unfathomable riches, the underdogs will likely rise up and bite my ass!
I felt strong about these 3 games so I bet each team to. score 3 runs in 7 innings, knowing how parlays work and figuring I'd lose just 1 leg per usual I backed my bet up with these 3 teams scoring 2 runs in 7 innings as well
Case in point as I figured I would I came 1 run away in the Padres game who by the way scored their 3td run in the 8th inning so 1 inning and 1 run late cost me a $500+ winner but I backed my bet up so I ended up winning like $50 bucks and change so all good
Parlays are so inviting but they are AWFUL,