@bgr said:
I think that you can focus on outlier events to identify areas where you can exploit the margins of the probabilities that the sports books are using the set the lines. Given how few event outcomes there are in total, the data-set available for training a predictive model (even with tens of thousands of outcomes) is weak, and it would be especially weak in those outlier events. I expect weather. inclement weather... temperature... I think this is the reasoning behind the "bet on a home underdog". That could also just be something I heard somewhere or read on a sign but based on how I understand these models to be built that's where I would see opportunity for over fitting.
Tell ya what, I'm. sure you are far smarter than I am with math and analytics than I ever will be so if you can figure out a solid model. I'll cut you in on my winnings
15%? 20%?
I was most definitely n.o.t. trying to say that I am ready and able to do that. I know enough to know how little I know about this one - I was just thinking aloud.
I think about my picks but being honest I'm too lazy to look up pitching variables and other stats, you brought up a valid point a few weeks ago when my buddy dropped a bomb on Shane Smith against the Royals, a pretty easy search would have shown the Royals don't strike out much so stuff like that is worth the research time.
The thing with Sports betting is when you think you have an edge the thing that you don't expect usually happens or something happens that shouldn't and you end up losing.
You can win but it takes luck imo more than anything
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I think about my picks but being honest I'm too lazy to look up pitching variables and other stats, you brought up a valid point a few weeks ago when my buddy dropped a bomb on Shane Smith against the Royals, a pretty easy search would have shown the Royals don't strike out much so stuff like that is worth the research time.
The thing with Sports betting is when you think you have an edge the thing that you don't expect usually happens or something happens that shouldn't and you end up losing.
You can win but it takes luck imo more than anything
Parlay:Over 43 tonight,with ML Lions,Bills,Broncos.