@MsMorrisine said:
actually i'd love for the dollar to rise for a few months => but i'm thinking it's going to drop hard with the markets when inflation hits
be nicer if we weren't in the financial trouble the country is in
We were BOOMIN!™ for the last 3-4 years, although not so much anymore. Plan accordingly, the trouble has just begun IMO. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
@MsMorrisine said:
actually i'd love for the dollar to rise for a few months => but i'm thinking it's going to drop hard with the markets when inflation hits
be nicer if we weren't in the financial trouble the country is in
We were BOOMIN!™ for the last 3-4 years, although not so much anymore. Plan accordingly, the trouble has just begun IMO. THKS!
yep that's the worst thing about the FED: boom/bust cycles.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
It's amazing you guys put so credence in every market tick up and down. It's also amazing, but not surprising, that most don't see the big picture. The government needs (at least for the near future) a weak dollar to achieve its goals for many reasons, one of which is refinancing all of the big wave of short term debt that is expiring. Lowering interest rates is one way to weaken the dollar but that's not happening (at least not yet), so the administration is using other means to achieve that. Don't get too excited about the dollar index bounce from 98 to 100. I don't think there's much more and if there is, more measures will be taken.
the gub'mint is not in the forex markets adjusting the dollar to achieve a weaker dollar. the interest rates were not lowered as you point out and this past week they weren't raised. what "other means" are there? 5 tril deficit budget this year plus 1tril in interest per year alone plus 37 tril debt already? that plus an uncertain future from the tariffs caused the dollar to fall.
king dollar will remain king until the masses get sick of seeing the emperor with no clothes. or the emperor can get the act together, wake up, stitch some rags together and live humbly clothed
we can always do the apple tax, tho. would that work?
@MsMorrisine said:
the gub'mint is not in the forex markets adjusting the dollar to achieve a weaker dollar. the interest rates were not lowered as you point out and this past week they weren't raised. what "other means" are there? 5 tril deficit budget this year plus 1tril in interest per year alone plus 37 tril debt already? that plus an uncertain future from the tariffs caused the dollar to fall.
king dollar will remain king until the masses get sick of seeing the emperor with no clothes. or the emperor can get the act together, wake up, stitch some rags together and live humbly clothed
we can always do the apple tax, tho. would that work?
What other means are there? Surely you are kidding. Were you paying attention the last few months? Anything that increases fear, uncertainty, and doubt about the American economy will usually push the dollar index down, such as big changes to global trade policies, interest rate lowering, quantitative easing, or reducing quantitative tightening.
the tariffs were not chosen because they would hurt the dollar or we would have heard about that plan a long time ago. likewise, the unknown effects to create fud wouldn't be on the list because no admin wants to create fud about the economy
you've already crossed interest rates off the list. no one in the admin is calling for the fed to do anything about quantitative-X. i'll mention that no one has suggested the intent of the trade policy was in part to drive the dollar down.
driving the dollar down would help with exports and trade. some may be happy with the aid to trade, but no one mentioned that from the start.
@MsMorrisine said:
the tariffs were not chosen because they would hurt the dollar or we would have heard about that plan a long time ago. likewise, the unknown effects to create fud wouldn't be on the list because no admin wants to create fud about the economy
you've already crossed interest rates off the list. no one in the admin is calling for the fed to do anything about quantitative-X. i'll mention that no one has suggested the intent of the trade policy was in part to drive the dollar down.
driving the dollar down would help with exports and trade. some may be happy with the aid to trade, but no one mentioned that from the start.
Why do you think we "would have heard about that plan?" Sometimes in order to be strategic you don't reveal the plan or you have to be indirect about how you talk about it. People don't understand that the US and world economic systems are being restructured. Don't rule out strategic moves to drive down the dollar to achieve other goals. Do you really think the plan is to refinance all of that low interest debt from 3 years ago at today's rates? How would we pay for it? No, instead you tank the dollar, force the economy into a recession (which was coming regardless), then interest rates get lowered and you refinance a good portion of that short term debt into long term debt at more manageable rates, and by the time that's done hopefully the economy is recovering and running because of the other moves that are being made. No one knows if it will work, but it seams feasible and I don't know if there's any other viable strategy.
@MsMorrisine said:
actually i'd love for the dollar to rise for a few months => but i'm thinking it's going to drop hard with the markets when inflation hits
be nicer if we weren't in the financial trouble the country is in
We were BOOMIN!™ for the last 3-4 years, although not so much anymore. Plan accordingly, the trouble has just begun IMO. THKS!
yep that's the worst thing about the FED: boom/bust cycles.
Yep, that rhe worse thing about the gold standard, boom/bust cycles. Just wanted to help you make a more accurate comment.
@MsMorrisine said:
the tariffs were not chosen because they would hurt the dollar or we would have heard about that plan a long time ago. likewise, the unknown effects to create fud wouldn't be on the list because no admin wants to create fud about the economy
you've already crossed interest rates off the list. no one in the admin is calling for the fed to do anything about quantitative-X. i'll mention that no one has suggested the intent of the trade policy was in part to drive the dollar down.
driving the dollar down would help with exports and trade. some may be happy with the aid to trade, but no one mentioned that from the start.
Why do you think we "would have heard about that plan?" Sometimes in order to be strategic you don't reveal the plan or you have to be indirect about how you talk about it.
What exactly is this plan that you speak of? Are you suggesting that Uncle Sam is currently engaged in currency manipulation?
@MsMorrisine said:
actually i'd love for the dollar to rise for a few months => but i'm thinking it's going to drop hard with the markets when inflation hits
be nicer if we weren't in the financial trouble the country is in
We were BOOMIN!™ for the last 3-4 years, although not so much anymore. Plan accordingly, the trouble has just begun IMO. THKS!
yep that's the worst thing about the FED: boom/bust cycles.
P.S. @Derryb your gutter bar pricing is getting tempting. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
@MsMorrisine said:
actually i'd love for the dollar to rise for a few months => but i'm thinking it's going to drop hard with the markets when inflation hits
be nicer if we weren't in the financial trouble the country is in
We were BOOMIN!™ for the last 3-4 years, although not so much anymore. Plan accordingly, the trouble has just begun IMO. THKS!
yep that's the worst thing about the FED: boom/bust cycles.
Yep, that rhe worse thing about the gold standard, boom/bust cycles. Just wanted to help you make a more accurate comment.
Do your homework. The gold standard ended for domestic transactions in the United States in 1933 when Roosevelt suspended the gold standard, effectively ending the ability for individuals to convert their currency to gold. If a gold standard had anything to do with boom/bust cycles before 1933 it certainly has not since then. The FED can never seem to tweak things just right. Their over compensation in trying to end the extremes of one cycle creates the next. They never seem able to find the sweet spot with the gas peddle.
Once again, I don't need your help with accuracy.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
@derryb said:
As Jim Rickards points out - gold has outperformed stocks by a wide margin this year, but it has also outperformed stocks for the past twenty-five years.
A guy whose own investment performance probably lags a balanced portfolio.
Notice these guys touting gold or PMs or some other off-the-track asset class NEVER tell us how they are doing in their own personal account or any managed accounts.
He's NOT an investment manager in the conventional sense.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Notice these guys touting gold or PMs or some other off-the-track asset class NEVER tell us how they are doing in their own personal account or any managed accounts.
sometimes the cnbc segment from 12-1pm will see some p/l numbers. otherwise i don't hear people revealing their track record. though you hear about cathie wood and other because they are talking their funds' performance (cathie wood below s&p 500)
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Nobody has gotten wealthy from trading or OWNING gold. Not compared to stocks.
Maybe they just do it to protect the value of their dollars.
That doesn't make sense. When you buy gold with USD, you short your USD position and long your gold position. Basically, you expect gold to appreciate more (or depreciate less) relative to the USD.
@derryb said:
As Jim Rickards points out - gold has outperformed stocks by a wide margin this year, but it has also outperformed stocks for the past twenty-five years.
A guy whose own investment performance probably lags a balanced portfolio.
Notice these guys touting gold or PMs or some other off-the-track asset class NEVER tell us how they are doing in their own personal account or any managed accounts.
He's NOT an investment manager in the conventional sense.
spoken like a true believer in stocks. At least let your bias be known, the rest of us do.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Nobody has gotten wealthy from trading or OWNING gold. Not compared to stocks.
Maybe they just do it to protect the value of their dollars.
That doesn't make sense. When you buy gold with USD, you short your USD position and long your gold position. Basically, you expect gold to appreciate more (or depreciate less) relative to the USD.
You protect the value of your declining dollars by holding them in an asset that offsets declining dollars. Gold does that. Gold is the great protector of a declining currency.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Nobody has gotten wealthy from trading or OWNING gold. Not compared to stocks.
Maybe they just do it to protect the value of their dollars.
That doesn't make sense. When you buy gold with USD, you short your USD position and long your gold position. Basically, you expect gold to appreciate more (or depreciate less) relative to the USD.
You protect the value of your declining dollars by holding them in an asset that offsets declining dollars. Gold does that. Gold is the great protector of a declining currency.
You don't "hold dollars in an asset." You trade dollars for other assets which means you are shorting your US dollar position. Sorry if that's being technical but I think it's an important distinction. The paradigm most Americans think about is only gold relative to USD, but a better perspective is gold relative to real estate, crypto, silver, bonds, etc. In 2009, gold performed especially well relative to real estate.
So you trade all of your dollars for gold. Who says you have to sell your gold back for dollars?
sure you do, that's what you have temporarily invested in the asset and it's what you receive when you liquidate the asset.
You trade dollars for other assets which means you are shorting your US dollar position. Sorry if that's being technical but I think it's an important distinction. The paradigm most Americans think about is only gold relative to USD, but a better perspective is gold relative to real estate, crypto, silver, bonds, etc. In 2009, gold performed especially well relative to real estate.
When considering gold relative to other assets one has to have a common denominator. In the US that denominator is dollars. One does not buy or sell gold with crypto (maybe bitcoin nowdays), real estate, silver, bonds, etc. They do it with dollars. And, if one does barter with another asset one is required by the IRS to convert value of both to dollars when calculating loss/profit.
Dollars are the medium of exchange for assets with rare exception. The "perspective" of gold to other assets is always based on the dollar value of each at a given point in time. We know that in 2009 gold performed especially well relative to real estate because we used the same denominator (dollars) to value each. We could have used chickens but in the US we use dollars as the measuring stick.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
@derryb said:
Maybe they just do it to protect the value of their dollars.
Stocks or bonds do a much better job.
at a much greater risk. This is why some choose stocks/bonds while at the same time choosing gold. Each serves its own purpose. To some, risk is an important part of any equation.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
@derryb said:
Recently gold had seen price spikes when trading opened in China. Likely our current reduction in price is because >of selling in China.
No, it's because the Chinese CB is still buying gold and there's a floor for 10 insurance companies to buy 1% of their assets in gold. That's about 300 tons of gold.
Articles I have read have said they have NOT started buying but you are seeing others frontrun.
@derryb said:
at a much greater risk. This is why some choose stocks/bonds while at the same time choosing gold. Each serves its >own purpose. To some, risk is an important part of any equation.
Gold is riskier... it doesn't pay a dividend OR interest. Volatility of returns is higher....drawdowns are longer....other risk measures also flail.
If gold were as good as you say, institutions and wealth managers would own it in spades.
sure you do, that's what you have temporarily invested in the asset and it's what you receive when you liquidate the asset.
You trade dollars for other assets which means you are shorting your US dollar position. Sorry if that's being technical but I think it's an important distinction. The paradigm most Americans think about is only gold relative to USD, but a better perspective is gold relative to real estate, crypto, silver, bonds, etc. In 2009, gold performed especially well relative to real estate.
When considering gold relative to other assets one has to have a common denominator. In the US that denominator is dollars. One does not buy or sell gold with crypto (maybe bitcoin nowdays), real estate, silver, bonds, etc. They do it with dollars. And, if one does barter with another asset one is required by the IRS to convert value of both to dollars when calculating loss/profit.
Dollars are the medium of exchange for assets with rare exception. The "perspective" of gold to other assets is always based on the dollar value of each at a given point in time. We know that in 2009 gold performed especially well relative to real estate because we used the same denominator (dollars) to value each. We could have used chickens but in the US we use dollars as the measuring stick.
Yes it's a medium of exchange and it's a common and convenient measuring stick, but not everyone thinks that way and it's probably going to change more and more with the increasing use of crypto and the volatility of the USD. They say one ounce of gold would buy a cow in 1920 and it would today until recently, although I think now you could maybe get 1.5 cows because gold has outperformed cattle the last several months. The USD measuring stick has been quite volatile lately, and so it is less useful or reliable as a measuring stick.
I get it, most people are conditioned to measure wealth in USD. We consider Musk to be the richest person in the world but his wealth isn't USD, it's Tesla (and other) stock. So what is wealth (for Americans), is it just USD or it is the sum total of all of your assets? It's not USD until you convert it to USD. Sure valuing it in USD is done for ease in comparison. As you wouldn't compare Bill Gates and his Microsoft shares to Musk and his Telsa shares, you would say $x vs $y, but that's a theoretical value. Musk isn't "holding dollars" in Tesla stock. He's got a huge long Tesla stock position and maybe someday he'll to long USD or perhaps trade his Tesla stock for another company's stock.
@derryb said:
at a much greater risk. This is why some choose stocks/bonds while at the same time choosing gold. Each serves its >own purpose. To some, risk is an important part of any equation.
Gold is riskier... it doesn't pay a dividend OR interest. Volatility of returns is higher....drawdowns are longer....other risk measures also flail.
Gold is not risky. It does not have any maintenance costs, taxes, and does not deteriorate and will last forever.
@derryb said:
at a much greater risk. This is why some choose stocks/bonds while at the same time choosing gold. Each serves its >own purpose. To some, risk is an important part of any equation.
Gold is riskier... it doesn't pay a dividend OR interest. Volatility of returns is higher....drawdowns are longer....other risk measures also flail.
If gold were as good as you say, institutions and wealth managers would own it in spades.
They don't.
For a reason.
you miss the whole point. Gold is not bought for a return on investment. It is bought for its stability against a faltering dollar. Increased prices over the years in the face of decreased dollar purchasing power is the proof in the pudding.
You shouldn't be buying any gold until you understand its purpose. Gold is not an investment. Why do central banks bother to hold it and why have they ramped up their purchases in recent years?
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
Comments
Trouble? LOL
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
We were BOOMIN!™ for the last 3-4 years, although not so much anymore. Plan accordingly, the trouble has just begun IMO. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
yep that's the worst thing about the FED: boom/bust cycles.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
It's amazing you guys put so credence in every market tick up and down. It's also amazing, but not surprising, that most don't see the big picture. The government needs (at least for the near future) a weak dollar to achieve its goals for many reasons, one of which is refinancing all of the big wave of short term debt that is expiring. Lowering interest rates is one way to weaken the dollar but that's not happening (at least not yet), so the administration is using other means to achieve that. Don't get too excited about the dollar index bounce from 98 to 100. I don't think there's much more and if there is, more measures will be taken.
All of this, of course, is good for gold.
http://ProofCollection.Net
the gub'mint is not in the forex markets adjusting the dollar to achieve a weaker dollar. the interest rates were not lowered as you point out and this past week they weren't raised. what "other means" are there? 5 tril deficit budget this year plus 1tril in interest per year alone plus 37 tril debt already? that plus an uncertain future from the tariffs caused the dollar to fall.
king dollar will remain king until the masses get sick of seeing the emperor with no clothes. or the emperor can get the act together, wake up, stitch some rags together and live humbly clothed
we can always do the apple tax, tho. would that work?
What other means are there? Surely you are kidding. Were you paying attention the last few months? Anything that increases fear, uncertainty, and doubt about the American economy will usually push the dollar index down, such as big changes to global trade policies, interest rate lowering, quantitative easing, or reducing quantitative tightening.
http://ProofCollection.Net
the tariffs were not chosen because they would hurt the dollar or we would have heard about that plan a long time ago. likewise, the unknown effects to create fud wouldn't be on the list because no admin wants to create fud about the economy
you've already crossed interest rates off the list. no one in the admin is calling for the fed to do anything about quantitative-X. i'll mention that no one has suggested the intent of the trade policy was in part to drive the dollar down.
driving the dollar down would help with exports and trade. some may be happy with the aid to trade, but no one mentioned that from the start.
Why do you think we "would have heard about that plan?" Sometimes in order to be strategic you don't reveal the plan or you have to be indirect about how you talk about it. People don't understand that the US and world economic systems are being restructured. Don't rule out strategic moves to drive down the dollar to achieve other goals. Do you really think the plan is to refinance all of that low interest debt from 3 years ago at today's rates? How would we pay for it? No, instead you tank the dollar, force the economy into a recession (which was coming regardless), then interest rates get lowered and you refinance a good portion of that short term debt into long term debt at more manageable rates, and by the time that's done hopefully the economy is recovering and running because of the other moves that are being made. No one knows if it will work, but it seams feasible and I don't know if there's any other viable strategy.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Yep, that rhe worse thing about the gold standard, boom/bust cycles. Just wanted to help you make a more accurate comment.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Stop spending and tax fairness.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What exactly is this plan that you speak of? Are you suggesting that Uncle Sam is currently engaged in currency manipulation?
P.S. @Derryb your gutter bar pricing is getting tempting. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Do your homework. The gold standard ended for domestic transactions in the United States in 1933 when Roosevelt suspended the gold standard, effectively ending the ability for individuals to convert their currency to gold. If a gold standard had anything to do with boom/bust cycles before 1933 it certainly has not since then. The FED can never seem to tweak things just right. Their over compensation in trying to end the extremes of one cycle creates the next. They never seem able to find the sweet spot with the gas peddle.
Once again, I don't need your help with accuracy.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
trying to pay cash for a new house for my late son's young daughter and her mother. My loss can be your gain.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
sorry to hear about your painful loss derryb
Nobody has gotten wealthy from trading or OWNING gold. Not compared to stocks.
Rolling time periods eliminate timing bias and gold is simply NOT a suitable investment for any diversified portfolio as a leading asset class.
It's a 5-6% correction so far. After the run gold had, that's nothing.
I think it shows there are STILL buyers underneath, even after we sprinted to $3,500.
Maybe they just do it to protect the value of their dollars.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
A guy whose own investment performance probably lags a balanced portfolio.
Notice these guys touting gold or PMs or some other off-the-track asset class NEVER tell us how they are doing in their own personal account or any managed accounts.
He's NOT an investment manager in the conventional sense.
sometimes the cnbc segment from 12-1pm will see some p/l numbers. otherwise i don't hear people revealing their track record. though you hear about cathie wood and other because they are talking their funds' performance (cathie wood below s&p 500)
That doesn't make sense. When you buy gold with USD, you short your USD position and long your gold position. Basically, you expect gold to appreciate more (or depreciate less) relative to the USD.
http://ProofCollection.Net
spoken like a true believer in stocks. At least let your bias be known, the rest of us do.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
You protect the value of your declining dollars by holding them in an asset that offsets declining dollars. Gold does that. Gold is the great protector of a declining currency.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
Stocks or bonds do a much better job.
I'm a true believer in numbers. It's not a question of bias, it's the historical record.
You don't "hold dollars in an asset." You trade dollars for other assets which means you are shorting your US dollar position. Sorry if that's being technical but I think it's an important distinction. The paradigm most Americans think about is only gold relative to USD, but a better perspective is gold relative to real estate, crypto, silver, bonds, etc. In 2009, gold performed especially well relative to real estate.
So you trade all of your dollars for gold. Who says you have to sell your gold back for dollars?
http://ProofCollection.Net
Well, if you sell your gold in the US, and unless you find the perfect bartering partner, what else are you gonna be offered for it except dollars?
You could always try to get it past customs and sell it elsewhere. Good luck with that.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
sure you do, that's what you have temporarily invested in the asset and it's what you receive when you liquidate the asset.
When considering gold relative to other assets one has to have a common denominator. In the US that denominator is dollars. One does not buy or sell gold with crypto (maybe bitcoin nowdays), real estate, silver, bonds, etc. They do it with dollars. And, if one does barter with another asset one is required by the IRS to convert value of both to dollars when calculating loss/profit.
Dollars are the medium of exchange for assets with rare exception. The "perspective" of gold to other assets is always based on the dollar value of each at a given point in time. We know that in 2009 gold performed especially well relative to real estate because we used the same denominator (dollars) to value each. We could have used chickens but in the US we use dollars as the measuring stick.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
Recently gold had seen price spikes when trading opened in China. Likely our current reduction in price is because of selling in China.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
at a much greater risk. This is why some choose stocks/bonds while at the same time choosing gold. Each serves its own purpose. To some, risk is an important part of any equation.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
No, it's because the Chinese CB is still buying gold and there's a floor for 10 insurance companies to buy 1% of their assets in gold. That's about 300 tons of gold.
Articles I have read have said they have NOT started buying but you are seeing others frontrun.
Gold is riskier... it doesn't pay a dividend OR interest. Volatility of returns is higher....drawdowns are longer....other risk measures also flail.
If gold were as good as you say, institutions and wealth managers would own it in spades.
They don't.
For a reason.
explain that in more detail?
Yes it's a medium of exchange and it's a common and convenient measuring stick, but not everyone thinks that way and it's probably going to change more and more with the increasing use of crypto and the volatility of the USD. They say one ounce of gold would buy a cow in 1920 and it would today until recently, although I think now you could maybe get 1.5 cows because gold has outperformed cattle the last several months. The USD measuring stick has been quite volatile lately, and so it is less useful or reliable as a measuring stick.
I get it, most people are conditioned to measure wealth in USD. We consider Musk to be the richest person in the world but his wealth isn't USD, it's Tesla (and other) stock. So what is wealth (for Americans), is it just USD or it is the sum total of all of your assets? It's not USD until you convert it to USD. Sure valuing it in USD is done for ease in comparison. As you wouldn't compare Bill Gates and his Microsoft shares to Musk and his Telsa shares, you would say $x vs $y, but that's a theoretical value. Musk isn't "holding dollars" in Tesla stock. He's got a huge long Tesla stock position and maybe someday he'll to long USD or perhaps trade his Tesla stock for another company's stock.
Gold is not risky. It does not have any maintenance costs, taxes, and does not deteriorate and will last forever.
http://ProofCollection.Net
you miss the whole point. Gold is not bought for a return on investment. It is bought for its stability against a faltering dollar. Increased prices over the years in the face of decreased dollar purchasing power is the proof in the pudding.
You shouldn't be buying any gold until you understand its purpose. Gold is not an investment. Why do central banks bother to hold it and why have they ramped up their purchases in recent years?
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
More detail
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
.
So is China manipulating the gold market?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear